Starphanluke
Paratroopa
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It's too early to make definitive statements on any of this. Like others have pointed out, there was extra stock from last quarter it had to sell before shipping more this quarter. Plus, it hasn't even hit its first holiday yet. And like you say, they could very well release an updated version on Switch 2.Because the rate TOTK needs to reach to outsell BOTW isn't realistic. If you take the results from this financial quarter for instance, TOTK only gained 500K on BOTW. If that rate held then it would take TOTK around 7 years to catch up. There will be fluctuations sure - I'd expect TOTK to have a good holiday season this year for instance - but eventually the rate at which TOTK outsells its predecessor will tighten until any gains it makes on BOTW will be negligible. That's before we consider the impact future Zelda's and consoles will have on their legs.
I've said before and I'll say it again, the only chance TOTK has to become the best selling of the two is if we see an updated version released on the next Nintendo console with significant additional content to give the game's sales a shot in the arm.
...but they could also do that for BotW (or both together). And BotW continues to sell great. So it's tricky. In the end, neither outcome seems crazy. All we know is this new era of Zelda is far and away the most successful.