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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (New Staff Post, Please read)

I think there is a zero percent chance anything related to the Switch 2's hardware is shown off at this direct. No announcement, no showcase, no namedrop, not even a tease. Assuming that this is indeed the Switch's last year as Nintendo's most recent console, Mario Wonder is set to give it one last bang of a holiday season and I can't fathom they want anything to eat into that for a bit.

However, I would guess that anything major shown off here (Prime 4 seems like the most speculated instance right now, but even if we get a curve ball and shown something big like a new big EPD game) might be given the Twilight Princess / Breath of the Wild treatment where it was announced for the [current generation console], but simultaneously launched on the [next generation console] as well.
 
New patent made public for what seems to be a new VR headset, could be related to Switch 2 (or not)

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What is Nintendo cooking ?
This was published and talked about 3 years ago. Very unlikely to be something for their next product.
 
This was published and talked about 3 years ago. Very unlikely to be something for their next product.

It says September 2023 on the patent, am I missing something?

Tomorrow they won’t be any HW news.

You must wait at least 6 months

Yup. Next year for the reveal, no way are they going to clip Switch's wings before 'the season to be jolly'.
 
I don't have the experience to look up components but I was leaning toward $400 before this month. With all the leaks, I'm leaning towards $500 since it's comparable in cutting edge hardware to the other consoles with which have recent price increase outside of US. Add in that Sony/MS is more willing to take a loss on hardware, I don't see a large price difference. Maybe $450 but not $400.
Nintendo isn't releasing a $500 console.

It's cutting edge in a couple of ways but I think it's going to find ways to cleverly cut costs down in other ways.

I'm banking on $400.
 
Nintendo isn't releasing a $500 console.

It's cutting edge in a couple of ways but I think it's going to find ways to cleverly cut costs down in other ways.

I'm banking on $400.
I concur. They’ll either cut corners somewhere or incurr in a loss to be recouped by software and subs
 
RELEVANT INFORMATION TO DRAKE:



The industry has moved to LPDDR5 memory en masse

8GB for the highest end.

6GB for the rest of the stack.

I’m here for it!


The interesting thing here regarding the new Switch is the use of 6GB LPDDR5 (which will be a single 64-bit module) in the base iPhone 15. Apple keeps their base models around for three years (the Pros typically just for one), which means that 64-bit 6GB LPDDR5 modules will continue to be manufactured in large quantities for at least three years to keep Apple stocked. These are the same modules many of us are expecting Nintendo to use two of to hit 12GB of LPDDR5 on a 128-bit bus.

Of course none of this is massively surprising. They were already on 6GB LPDDR4X last year, and the A16 supports LPDDR5, so 6GB LPDDR5 was pretty much a lock. It also doesn't rule out any other capacity, but it does mean that 12GB is at least guaranteed to be on the table for Nintendo in terms of parts availability.
 
Btw, I finally caught up on the last 30-40 pages or so, since last week Eurogamer and VGC's article drop. I saw people mention Nintendo filed a "scrolling shoulder button" patent a few times. Can anyone catch me up?
nintendo patents a lot of crazy ideas. prior to Switch reveal, scroll wheel shoulder buttons were one of them

 
No way are they going to clip Switch's wings before 'the season to be jolly'.

How would announcing your customer base that you have a new console in the works is clipping Switch wings ? Switch still have plenty of games announced and unannounced, lot of attractive bundle offers also

It's time to accept that Switch 2 and Switch 1 will co-exist for a while, not everyone will be able to upgrade Year 1 or 2 and Nintendo is well aware of that.
 
Remind me, are you a software engineer? I don't remember from your post when everyone was sharing backgrounds. You had a roundabout way into this world, beginning with theater aspirations, IIRC...unless I'm mixing stories up lol
That's me. Theater actor (in a show now), writer for radio, former software engineer, still working in contracting as a performance engineer for HPC. Occasionally flirting with game dev, more seriously recently.

In fact, literally in the last 90 seconds, I lost a narrative design job I've been in consider for over the last six months. Which explains why certain people haven't been talking to me in the last week. Sigh.

And my government contract is ending in two weeks which means my paltry acting income will need to pay rent next month. Which I guess means I am a full time creative again!
 
It says September 2023 on the patent, am I missing something?



Yup. Next year for the reveal, no way are they going to clip Switch's wings before 'the season to be jolly'.
Patent applications are published shortly after they are filed as what's known as a pre-grant publication (unless the applicant files a non-publication request). The one linked is a fully granted patent, not the pre-grant publication. The front page of the patent indicates that it was previously published as US 2020/0298114 in September of 2020.
 
there is no reason to talk about switch 2 now

tbh though? I increasingly think geoff might get the first tease
One of the few things I have absolute confidence in for reveal timing is that Geoff does not get the first tease. Not only does he just not have that kind of relationship with Nintendo, Nintendo has every incentive to be the sole center of attention when they reveal it.
 
maybe it's cope but I'm really into "Nintendo's projections are stupidly low because they know they're going to clip Switch's wings" theory
I'm pretty sure some analysts came to this same conclusion a couple weeks back, I can't remember if it was an article or what.
 
To be honest I don’t really care if something next gen is announced tomorrow or not

What I truly want is the “b-but that’s gonna ruin their holiday sales” narrative to die once and for all.
 
That's me. Theater actor (in a show now), writer for radio, former software engineer, still working in contracting as a performance engineer for HPC. Occasionally flirting with game dev, more seriously recently.

In fact, literally in the last 90 seconds, I lost a narrative design job I've been in consider for over the last six months. Which explains why certain people haven't been talking to me in the last week. Sigh.

And my government contract is ending in two weeks which means my paltry acting income will need to pay rent next month. Which I guess means I am a full time creative again!
Damn, I'm really sorry to hear that. I'll say a prayer right now for another opportunity to come your way, and soon. That's gotta be hard news.

What an amazing portfolio of talents though - you wear so many varying, unrelated hats! Feel like that always makes for some of the most interesting people I've met IRL 🙂

I hope you have an alright rest of the day in spite of things!
 
To be honest I don’t really care if something next gen is announced tomorrow or not

What I truly want is the “b-but that’s gonna ruin their holiday sales” narrative to die once and for all.
Isn't it true either way?

1) It would most likely literally reduce the sales of existing products if they chose to announce it tomorrow
2) It's something Nintendo chooses to do anyway, whether the narrative is true or not.
 
Isn't it true either way?

1) It would most likely literally reduce the sales of existing products if they chose to announce it tomorrow
2) It's something Nintendo chooses to do anyway, whether the narrative is true or not.
The narrative in question is used to justify why Nintendo would never announce new hardware for the holidays. So it's not about the fact that Nintendo might lose sales, it's about the fact that they'd let that possibility prevent them from pursuing a reveal/release timeline.
 
No Redacted tomorrow. Just give me a Mario Wonder demo and I'm golden.
And my government contract is ending in two weeks which means my paltry acting income will need to pay rent next month. Which I guess means I am a full time creative again!
Godspeed and welcome to the side of Intermittent Income But At Least You're Doing What You Love!
 
The narrative in question is used to justify why Nintendo would never announce new hardware for the holidays. So it's not about the fact that Nintendo might lose sales, it's about the fact that they'd let that possibility prevent them from pursuing a reveal/release timeline.
Ah I see - yeah, in that case, it's nonsense.

I'm sure Nintendo have a tentative reveal/release timeline in mind already.
 
I really hope people don't actually hope that the Switch 2 will be announced in anyway tomorrow.

Not only do I hope we get a reveal tomorrow, but I fully expect it. And if Nintendo doesn't announce it, I'll throw a tantrum the likes of which Famiboards has never seen before.

jk
 
You lost me at "iPhones controls better than joycons".
But Apple makes the first and bestest bit of tech and is not in any attributed to innovations in technology in a manner befitting of stolen valor, tunnel vision or public ignorance at all. Innovations such as the tablet computer, the OS and the mouse. What? GRiD Systems? Xerox? Fake news. All of it. It was all Apple.
 
I just noticed with gamescom we have a ton of western leakers and insiders but for tgs we need to hear from people from japan to leak stuff from it, who are the prominent Japanese leakers to look at?
there aren't any really. there's a reason a lot of leaks are western

that said Mochizuki/Bloomberg should get something. Jason Schreier still has a JP focused article coming
 
Now that the March 2024 bullet point is out in the open, just really hoping one of these days someone else notable remarks on it and gives us a little more clarity on what it might mean.
 
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there aren't any really. there's a reason a lot of leaks are western

that said Mochizuki/Bloomberg should get something. Jason Schreier still has a JP focused article coming
Regarding Switch 2? Did he tease that on Twitter? I didn't know that, that's exciting.

I'm assuming Totilo's article got shelved at this point, on those specific points, at least. I'm sure another will come eventually.
 
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there aren't any really. there's a reason a lot of leaks are western

that said Mochizuki/Bloomberg should get something. Jason Schreier still has a JP focused article coming
Stephen Totilo, not Jason Screier. And I'm not expecting that to actually be released, considering he only mentioned it once at the end of July.
 
They didn't say "focussed exclusively" nor deny a hardware mention, so, I'm gonna say my "Is it gonna be teased or revealed here?" setting has now changed to "iffy".

Unlike Scott, I didn't need brain surgery for it, but much like Scott, it is at risk of rapidly flipping to "not a chance".
Let's suppose they show a game running on its hardware but don't identify the hardware (which is possible since some games have been teased with mere fade-ins at the end of the show without the Nintendo Switch bumper). It's not like everything in the presentation is a product due this year, but it would still have to be far along enough to be considered "close" to release. They could headline it as "plans for the future" or something on those lines.

It's POSSIBLE to do that, but I still think they should wait until the Holiday season or at least their Fall schedule is completed before showing their hand.
Though I prefer that they didn't tease the next system in the Direct, it still can happen.
 
The Direct could be used to announce another direct or trailer reveal for the new hardware, that is possible, since the wording leaves it open.

But i'M 20/80 (AGAINST) on the idea there will be anything Switch 2 related in the direct, including an announcement of a future direct.

I suspect new hardware reveal will be announced with a heads up tweet on Twitter then a trailer drop. just like the OG Switch announcement, with a presentation with more info closer to launch.
 
maybe it's cope but I'm really into "Nintendo's projections are stupidly low because they know they're going to clip Switch's wings" theory
Found it:

Not replying to anyone in particular:

Regarding Nintendo’s financial forecast for FY03/2024, it wouldn’t be unusual if Nintendo revise later. During the Switch era, they did it twice in FY23, twice in FY22, once in FY21, once in FY20, and twice in FY18.

Regarding the potential impact to stock performance, since Investors have been clamoring for a Switch successor, announcing it will most likely drive up the stock valuation even if it may depress the holiday sales in the short term.

For this FY at least, stock analysts don’t seem to take Nintendo’s guidance seriously, so neither should we. According to a Nikkei survey of analyst forecasts, the average of their FY24 net profit expectations is 422.7BN yen. That’s 82.7BN yen above Nintendo’s official forecast of 340BN yen—a 24% divergence!

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Doesn't Totilo have a paid-subscription newsletter? I wonder if that article actually did go out and it was just for none of us.
 
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(The Bloomberg article's title has been changed to "Arm's CEO Is Pitching a Made-For-You Chip Strategy Ahead of IPO".)
Arm Ltd. Chief Executive Officer Rene Haas, gearing up for the biggest initial public offering of the year, is pitching investors on a pivot.

His message to potential shareholders is that Arm is poised to become a bigger and more profitable business — not just because of the industrywide boom in cloud computing and artificial intelligence, but also due to a major change in how it operates.

"We made a significant shift in our strategy," Haas said in a video presentation for prospective investors seen by Bloomberg.

For most of its history, Arm's main focus has been designing chips for smartphones and other electronics and then selling that technology for pennies per chip to companies like Qualcomm Inc. But now, Arm is doing complex design work focused on specific products, tailored for what it sees as key areas of growth. It's a "purpose-built approach" addressing the urgent needs of companies making mobile devices, cloud computing, car electronics and internet-connected technology, Haas said in the presentation.

Getting that message across is key to the lofty valuation. Arm had said it's seeking as much as $54.5 billion in its IPO this week, though it’s proving so popular with investors that the company may raise the price range for the shares. The listing is oversubscribed by 10 times, and bankers are planning to stop taking orders a day early, by Tuesday afternoon, people familiar with the matter have said. Arm still plans to price its shares on Wednesday, the people said. It's not uncommon for books to close early on an IPO, which often indicates strong demand.

It's a big markup from 2016, when SoftBank Corp.'s Masayoshi Son bought Arm for $32 billion. To bolster the point that Arm really is a different company, the video presentation features endorsements from Nvidia Corp. Chief Executive Officer Jensen Huang and James Hamilton, architect of much of Amazon.com Inc.'s AWS hardware, among others.

Huang, in a reference to his failed attempt to purchase Arm for $40 billion in 2022, said the world knows how much he loves Arm and praised Haas' shift into new markets, particularly the artificial intelligence ecosystem. Nvidia, now the most valuable chip company, is backing Arm's IPO and plans to be a strategic investor.

It was Nvidia's unsuccessful pursuit of Arm that led to Haas' overhaul. His pitch for the CEO job — when his predecessor, Simon Segars, stepped down in early 2022 — was that Arm was doing much of the work in defining technology in the mobile phone and computing industries but wasn't being paid or valued accordingly.
Chipmakers like Qualcomm and Broadcom Inc. have licensed Arm's partial designs and computer code and put them in their own chips. The products adhere to industry standards, making it easy for software makers to ensure that various forms of technology are compatible. That’s why Arm's designs are in nearly every mobile phone made today.

When Son acquired Arm, his big push was to bring that same compatibility to the so-called Internet of Things. As more and more devices became connected, he reasoned, they’d need the kind of coherency around standards that made the mobile phone industry grow so quickly.

His argument to investors eight years ago was that — while Arm was already pervasive in the billion-unit smartphone market — the proliferation of computing into everything from household electronics to factory equipment and traffic signals would take it into billions of new devices.

Haas has flipped Arm's emphasis, saying more isn't necessarily better. He has pushed Arm to move beyond licensing the basic building blocks of chips and instead provide customers with blueprints they can take straight to the factory and put into production. Now Arm is charging much higher royalty rates per device because it offers customers more complete designs that are more technologically capable.

Arm's pivot is an attempt to take advantage of a shift that’s been brewing for several years. Some of the biggest technology companies have increasingly started to see the ability to make the fundamental components of their products and systems as a key competitive advantage.

Apple Inc.'s A and M series processors are the most obvious example, powering devices from MacBooks to iPads. Likewise, Amazon.com Inc., Alphabet Inc.'s Google, Microsoft Corp. and their Chinese counterparts are also trying to equip data centers with chips that fit their specific needs, instead of relying on Intel Corp. for generic solutions.

That's given Arm the chance to do complete designs for chips that may cost hundreds, if not thousands of dollars.

While Arm might get paid low-single-digit dollars on a $30 main chip in a smartphone, the potential inside the kind of processor that's at the heart of a cloud data center is much greater. In that kind of environment, chips can have more than a hundred computing cores, or mini processors, and Arm can charge more than a dollar per core.
The revenue opportunity in cloud computing will grow to $28 billion by 2025, expanding at a rate of 17% per year from now, Arm Chief Financial Officer Jason Child said in the video presentation.

The company has a gross margin, or percentage of revenue remaining after deducting costs of production, of 95%. Going forward, Arm will decide on the level of profitability it wants to deliver depending on industry circumstances.

When the chip business goes through changes, Arm is likely to invest more into research and development to gear itself up for opportunities. When it's more stable, profitability will increase, he said.

"For chips where our products have provided more value, we will typically receive a higher royalty rate per chip," Arm said in a recent securities filing. "Accordingly, we believe that our investments in higher performance, higher efficiency, and more specialized designs will drive greater demand for our products and higher value for our customers, which is expected to result in higher royalty fees."

That makes Arm increasingly a competitor for its chipmaker customers who want to be seen as the ones who add the most value for the computer and phone makers they supply.

A legal dispute between Arm and Qualcomm, which centers around the fees the San Diego chipmaker has to pay too use another Arm licensee it acquired, is a sign of this increasing tension.

Switching to another instruction set — the basic code that a chip uses to communicate with software — away from Arm's would cause chipmakers like Qualcomm massive headaches. So even as they persist in trying to out-design the UK-based company, they'll likely have to stick with using its basic technology.

(Updates with detail on pricing in fifth paragraph. A previous version of this story corrected the spelling of the chief financial officer’s name in the 17th paragraph.)
 
nintendo patents a lot of crazy ideas. prior to Switch reveal, scroll wheel shoulder buttons were one of them

My concern for those is wear and tear on the scroll wheels. If people think Joy-Con drift is bad, wait until they deal with loose wheels.
 
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