I think we'll probably know by how they announce and advertise it, but yeah there'll be some doubters either way I imagine until we get numbersWhat's gonna be worse than all the "will Dane be a pro or a succ" talk now is the fact that we'll still be having that talk after it's announced and released, up until the first FY reports come out.
EDIT: Speaking of, teardowns confirm the dock with the OLED model was redesigned to output 4k/60fps. Obviously that won't mean anything for the OLED model but instead likely points to them future proofing it for a new console which can output higher than 1080p.
Which wouldn't make much sense if this new console is a "new gen" successor type console.
Oh I don't think that 125-132 million is the likely final number for the Switch, I just meant to illustrate that regardless of what comes next even if the OLED was the only thing in the pipeline it shouldn't have a problem to cross that 130 million barrier by late 2023. Obviously Nintendo is not sitting around with idle thumbs and they have further plans beyond the OLED.Your post is fine. I just disagree with the sales. I think Switch will go much higher. We will all see who is right in the end.
Honestly I don't see them using any sort of traditional "pro" or "succ" name so even if it's marketed entirely like a "pro" plenty of people will still treat it like a new gen.I think we'll probably know by how they announce and advertise it, but yeah there'll be some doubters either way I imagine until we get numbers
Oh shit, people will absolutely try to subtract its sales from the total if there's any degree of vagueness as to what it is.What's gonna be worse than all the "will Dane be a pro or a succ" talk now is the fact that we'll still be having that talk after it's announced and released, up until the first FY reports come out.
EDIT: Speaking of, teardowns confirm the dock with the OLED model was redesigned to output 4k/60fps. Obviously that won't mean anything for the OLED model but instead likely points to them future proofing it for a new console which can output higher than 1080p.
Which wouldn't make much sense if this new console is a "new gen" successor type console.
anti-consumer
Plenty of people already do that with the GBC.Oh shit, people will absolutely try to subtract its sales from the total if there's any degree of vagueness as to what it is.
Oh I don't think that 125-132 million is the likely final number for the Switch, I just meant to illustrate that regardless of what comes next even if the OLED was the only thing in the pipeline it shouldn't have a problem to cross that 130 million barrier by late 2023. Obviously Nintendo is not sitting around with idle thumbs and they have further plans beyond the OLED.
In my honest opinion if a switch "Pro" a la New3DS is next and launches in late 2022/ early 2023 it should extend the life of switch to either late 2024/early 2025 and allow it to fall somewhere in the 145-150 million range when all is said and done.
If a more straightforward Switch "2" a la PS4-PS5 is next and launches in a comparable time frame late 2022/early 2023 then i don't see the original Switch total going too much higher than the 125-132 number I posted earlier, maybe up 135 or so. Outside of PS2 and to a lesser extent PS1 tail sales of video game hardware after a clear successor launches are usually quite minimal ( The idea many people have about having the older model stay on the market as a cheaper entry option, usually doesn't pan out unless the hardware in question is actually cheap (like around $100 cheap) not just cheaper than what comes next and even then not always. And I don't see Nintendo getting the Switch OLED down that far in price anyway.)
If the road taken is the 3rd option and more closely resembles the GB-GBC transition that is where things get most interesting. Meaning that the new model launches advertised as a significantly charged up Switch in terms of specs and has some other angle or new feature to separate it, but is allowed to somewhat organically morph into a successor over time ( It's been a very long time but I don't recall the GBC as really being marketed as a Gameboy 2 or with any hard line drawn between it and the original, other than the colour screen of course and maybe battery consumption, at least at the beginning) with exclusive software ramping up over time ( If you look at the list of GBC color games compatible with original Gameboy you'll see that there is a fairly large amount for approx. the first 2 years on the market and really starts to drop off heavily when we are a bit less than a year out from GBA ). This would allow them to probably keep the Switch family on the market until around 2027 or maybe even 2028 giving them a 10-11 year total lifecycle similar to the Gamboy-GBA time frame ( I have heard/read several times that something akin to was in the original plan, and it would certainly lineup well with their statements on the length of this generation). I think this could result in sales of upwards of 175 million units but it is very difficult to gage the top end as you would have to see an indication of what percentage of previous owners were upgrading. This would also give Nintendo the time to observe the market better and watch how a handful of current trends play out and innovate rather the iterate with whatever comes beyond the Switch line ( they are very fond of offering something new rather than just a polished up take on what they had before, in there eyes at the very least).
This post is already quite long so I'll finish up with just two points. For some the third option might look very similar to having a full on successor and having some cross gen titles for the first 2 years or so just like PS5 and Xbox series operate, and it's certainly not entirely different. But The way it is marketed to consumers will change both their expectations and the pathway that most developers will take ( Do you primarily make a Switch 2 game and try to force it to operate on the original model when at all possible, or do you just make Switch games and allow the extra breathing room of the SwitchBoy Colour to make them pop more than expected, I guess customer perception is key here). Second, something like any of these options may have been the plan originally but everything going on in the world the last 2 years may have shifted from one strategy to another or perhaps a new plan in between, I generally think that operations at these companies are more fluid then many people think.
Well that turned into somewhat of a mini novel.
I am pretty unsure, because of the uncertainty in what comes next.Question, what do you think the lifetime sales of the OLED Switch will be by itself?
in case you're serious, I am delighted to report that this is a copypastaDisappointed to see this disgusting term being used here. Already a bad sign. People buy what they like and vote with their hard earned dollars not yours.
Just so you know, that post is a copy-pasta joke from NeoGAF days and the first one of these Betting Times threads.Disappointed to see this disgusting term being used here. Already a bad sign. People buy what they like and vote with their hard earned dollars not yours.
You got gotDisappointed to see this disgusting term being used here. Already a bad sign. People buy what they like and vote with their hard earned dollars not yours.
in case you're serious, I am delighted to report that this is a copypasta
Just so you know, that post is a copy-pasta joke from NeoGAF days and the first one of these Betting Times threads.
You got got
Funny how that copypasta still works today haha.
Why wouldn't it make sense? They could make a successor that utilizes the same docking mechanism. TBH whether it's a pro or successor it'll likely use the same chip in the dock but change the shell to differentiate it from the OLED model so they don't look identical in marketing.What's gonna be worse than all the "will Dane be a pro or a succ" talk now is the fact that we'll still be having that talk after it's announced and released, up until the first FY reports come out.
EDIT: Speaking of, teardowns confirm the dock with the OLED model was redesigned to output 4k/60fps. Obviously that won't mean anything for the OLED model but instead likely points to them future proofing it for a new console which can output higher than 1080p.
Which wouldn't make much sense if this new console is a "new gen" successor type console.
They don't often allow accessories from their previous generation to be used with new generation hardware. Especially accessories only included with one specific revision type.Why wouldn't it make sense? They could make a successor that utilizes the same docking mechanism. TBH whether it's a pro or successor it'll likely use the same chip in the dock but change the shell to differentiate it from the OLED model so they don't look identical in marketing.
About 10mHow many 3ds sold from the time the switch released
Probably would be safe to add 10 million to whatever switch sales are at when the next gen system releases thenAbout 10m
2016-12-31 65.3m
2017-03-31 66.12m
2020-03-31 75.77m
According to Wikipedia
You could use GC controllers on Wii (and even Wii U and Switch with the attachments). Wii U supported all previous Wii controllers.They don't often allow accessories from their previous generation to be used with new generation hardware. Especially accessories only included with one specific revision type.
It feels more like the new dock will be the same one used with the new Dane Switch, and existing OLED docks will be updated to become compatible too. It would be pretty confusing if a new generation console is compatible with only OLED Switch docks.
Yeah I know it's been done before, which is why I said it hasn't been often.You could use GC controllers on Wii (and even Wii U and Switch with the attachments). Wii U supported all previous Wii controllers.
You think the dane/4kswitch will come in 2023/2024?Nah, Switch 2 will be out in 2023/2024, so hardly Switch can sell 155m+, but will probably reach something around 135m.
You think the dane/4kswitch will come in 2023/2024?
To me it's more a 2022 release as a relaunch of the switch like GBC, not a full new gen with software breaks.
But we will see.
Don’t know I think sales will start dropping off mid next year once rumors of next gen switch kick into full gear and it will sell 120-130 million totalHonestly the curve is looking now like 130m is the floor. Beating PS2/DS is very much on the table, what an insane turnaround for Nintendo.