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Sales Data Betting Time: Will Nintendo Switch become the best selling system of all time?

How much will Nintendo Switch sell lifetime?

  • 100-130m: The system will start tapering off quickly

    Votes: 36 20.7%

  • 130m-155m: It will get close but not quite DS/PS2 levels

    Votes: 91 52.3%

  • 155m-200m: Best selling console of all time

    Votes: 40 23.0%

  • 200m+: TO THE MOON!

    Votes: 7 4.0%
  • Total voters
    174
I think so, but it depends on when they release the successor and how they treat the current Switch when the new one is out.
 
0
Skittzo said:
What's gonna be worse than all the "will Dane be a pro or a succ" talk now is the fact that we'll still be having that talk after it's announced and released, up until the first FY reports come out.

EDIT: Speaking of, teardowns confirm the dock with the OLED model was redesigned to output 4k/60fps. Obviously that won't mean anything for the OLED model but instead likely points to them future proofing it for a new console which can output higher than 1080p.

Which wouldn't make much sense if this new console is a "new gen" successor type console.
Click to expand...
I think we'll probably know by how they announce and advertise it, but yeah there'll be some doubters either way I imagine until we get numbers
 
So, let's see....

-Performance clearly superior to a Raspberry Pi 3, probably.
-Built-in storage enough for installing as many as 1-2 games
-Voice comm requiring the use of an app on your cell phone
-Paid subscription online service feature list competitive with Heat.net
-Peripheral pricing so high and bizarrely lopsided with the initial hardware bundle that it makes buying a second Switch for parts a sensible option

...that's pretty dire, but it's still a much more compelling product than the Wii U at first reveal, simply by virtue of being a handheld. Might be somewhat more successful than the Wii U since it's not trying to leverage a poorly thought out archaic tablet as a unique selling point this time, but the cost of ownership is looking *astronomically* high. It's arguably higher than the major console competition, given the peripheral pricing, anemic built-in storage, low value paid online, etc., so it's abandoning a lot of the appeal that would otherwise come with being a handheld.

Handheld form factor and performance, but with $60 game pricing, paid online, tiny storage, and obscene peripheral costs. Worst of both worlds, arguably, and the mediocre mobile SoC isn't going to do it any favors when people hook it up to their living room setups. I seriously doubt I'll want to stretch out Switch games onto my 75" 4K HDR TV.

Not exactly situated to take the market by storm with all that and a very thin launch lineup. Not something that's easy to root for as a consumer, either, since Nintendo loaded up on anti-consumer business decisions here. It's telling that first shipment pre-orders are still available.

No.
 
Aquarius said:
Your post is fine. I just disagree with the sales. I think Switch will go much higher. We will all see who is right in the end. :)
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Oh I don't think that 125-132 million is the likely final number for the Switch, I just meant to illustrate that regardless of what comes next even if the OLED was the only thing in the pipeline it shouldn't have a problem to cross that 130 million barrier by late 2023. Obviously Nintendo is not sitting around with idle thumbs and they have further plans beyond the OLED.

In my honest opinion if a switch "Pro" a la New3DS is next and launches in late 2022/ early 2023 it should extend the life of switch to either late 2024/early 2025 and allow it to fall somewhere in the 145-150 million range when all is said and done.

If a more straightforward Switch "2" a la PS4-PS5 is next and launches in a comparable time frame late 2022/early 2023 then i don't see the original Switch total going too much higher than the 125-132 number I posted earlier, maybe up to 135 or so. Outside of PS2 and to a lesser extent PS1 tail sales of video game hardware after a clear successor launches are usually quite minimal ( The idea many people have about having the older model stay on the market as a cheaper entry option, usually doesn't pan out unless the hardware in question is actually cheap (like around $100 cheap) not just cheaper than what comes next and even then not always. And I don't see Nintendo getting the Switch OLED down that far in price anyway.)

If the road taken is the 3rd option and more closely resembles the GB-GBC transition that is where things get most interesting. Meaning that the new model launches advertised as a significantly charged up Switch in terms of specs and has some other angle or new feature to separate it, but is allowed to somewhat organically morph into a successor over time ( It's been a very long time but I don't recall the GBC as really being marketed as a Gameboy 2 or with any hard line drawn between it and the original, other than the colour screen of course and maybe battery consumption, at least at the beginning) with exclusive software ramping up over time ( If you look at the list of GBC color games compatible with original Gameboy you'll see that there is a fairly large amount for approx. the first 2 years on the market and really starts to drop off heavily when we are a bit less than a year out from GBA ). This would allow them to probably keep the Switch family on the market until around 2027 or maybe even 2028 giving them a 10-11 year total lifecycle similar to the Gamboy-GBA time frame ( I have heard/read several times that something akin to was in the original plan, and it would certainly lineup well with their statements on the length of this generation). I think this could result in sales of upwards of 175 million units but it is very difficult to gage the top end as you would have to see an indication of what percentage of previous owners were upgrading. This would also give Nintendo the time to observe the market better and watch how a handful of current trends play out and innovate rather the iterate with whatever comes beyond the Switch line ( they are very fond of offering something new rather than just a polished up take on what they had before, in there eyes at the very least).

This post is already quite long so I'll finish up with just two points. For some the third option might look very similar to having a full on successor and having some cross gen titles for the first 2 years or so just like PS5 and Xbox series operate, and it's certainly not entirely different. But the way it is marketed to consumers will change both their expectations and the pathway that most developers will take ( Do you primarily make a Switch 2 game and try to force it to operate on the original model when at all possible, or do you just make Switch games and allow the extra breathing room of the SwitchBoy Colour to make them pop more than expected, I guess customer perception is key here). Second, something like any of these options may have been the plan originally but everything going on in the world the last 2 years may have shifted from one strategy to another or perhaps a new plan in between, I generally think that operations at these companies are more fluid then many people think.

Well that turned into somewhat of a mini novel.
 
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If the Switch dosen‘t have a light successor (Switch Pro) which still counts to the current platform and depending when they release Switch 2, I see it ending at around 135-140 million sells.
 
0
NabiscoFelt said:
I think we'll probably know by how they announce and advertise it, but yeah there'll be some doubters either way I imagine until we get numbers
Click to expand...
Honestly I don't see them using any sort of traditional "pro" or "succ" name so even if it's marketed entirely like a "pro" plenty of people will still treat it like a new gen.

They aren't going to outright come out and say that this is replacing the Switch, the Switch is now obsolete, that kinda thing. So it'll still be a bit muddy about how they count them until we get the first official quarterly results.
 
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Skittzo said:
What's gonna be worse than all the "will Dane be a pro or a succ" talk now is the fact that we'll still be having that talk after it's announced and released, up until the first FY reports come out.

EDIT: Speaking of, teardowns confirm the dock with the OLED model was redesigned to output 4k/60fps. Obviously that won't mean anything for the OLED model but instead likely points to them future proofing it for a new console which can output higher than 1080p.

Which wouldn't make much sense if this new console is a "new gen" successor type console.
Click to expand...
Oh shit, people will absolutely try to subtract its sales from the total if there's any degree of vagueness as to what it is.
 
Im going with best selling of all time, yeah. I expect the Switch to be around for a long while yet.
 
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Unless they group Switch 4K in with it like they do with GB and GBC then I think it’ll end around 130~
 
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CJ_arcadian said:
Oh I don't think that 125-132 million is the likely final number for the Switch, I just meant to illustrate that regardless of what comes next even if the OLED was the only thing in the pipeline it shouldn't have a problem to cross that 130 million barrier by late 2023. Obviously Nintendo is not sitting around with idle thumbs and they have further plans beyond the OLED.

In my honest opinion if a switch "Pro" a la New3DS is next and launches in late 2022/ early 2023 it should extend the life of switch to either late 2024/early 2025 and allow it to fall somewhere in the 145-150 million range when all is said and done.

If a more straightforward Switch "2" a la PS4-PS5 is next and launches in a comparable time frame late 2022/early 2023 then i don't see the original Switch total going too much higher than the 125-132 number I posted earlier, maybe up 135 or so. Outside of PS2 and to a lesser extent PS1 tail sales of video game hardware after a clear successor launches are usually quite minimal ( The idea many people have about having the older model stay on the market as a cheaper entry option, usually doesn't pan out unless the hardware in question is actually cheap (like around $100 cheap) not just cheaper than what comes next and even then not always. And I don't see Nintendo getting the Switch OLED down that far in price anyway.)

If the road taken is the 3rd option and more closely resembles the GB-GBC transition that is where things get most interesting. Meaning that the new model launches advertised as a significantly charged up Switch in terms of specs and has some other angle or new feature to separate it, but is allowed to somewhat organically morph into a successor over time ( It's been a very long time but I don't recall the GBC as really being marketed as a Gameboy 2 or with any hard line drawn between it and the original, other than the colour screen of course and maybe battery consumption, at least at the beginning) with exclusive software ramping up over time ( If you look at the list of GBC color games compatible with original Gameboy you'll see that there is a fairly large amount for approx. the first 2 years on the market and really starts to drop off heavily when we are a bit less than a year out from GBA ). This would allow them to probably keep the Switch family on the market until around 2027 or maybe even 2028 giving them a 10-11 year total lifecycle similar to the Gamboy-GBA time frame ( I have heard/read several times that something akin to was in the original plan, and it would certainly lineup well with their statements on the length of this generation). I think this could result in sales of upwards of 175 million units but it is very difficult to gage the top end as you would have to see an indication of what percentage of previous owners were upgrading. This would also give Nintendo the time to observe the market better and watch how a handful of current trends play out and innovate rather the iterate with whatever comes beyond the Switch line ( they are very fond of offering something new rather than just a polished up take on what they had before, in there eyes at the very least).

This post is already quite long so I'll finish up with just two points. For some the third option might look very similar to having a full on successor and having some cross gen titles for the first 2 years or so just like PS5 and Xbox series operate, and it's certainly not entirely different. But The way it is marketed to consumers will change both their expectations and the pathway that most developers will take ( Do you primarily make a Switch 2 game and try to force it to operate on the original model when at all possible, or do you just make Switch games and allow the extra breathing room of the SwitchBoy Colour to make them pop more than expected, I guess customer perception is key here). Second, something like any of these options may have been the plan originally but everything going on in the world the last 2 years may have shifted from one strategy to another or perhaps a new plan in between, I generally think that operations at these companies are more fluid then many people think.

Well that turned into somewhat of a mini novel.
Click to expand...

Question, what do you think the lifetime sales of the OLED Switch will be by itself?
 
For the sake of things, assume this scenario below becomes reality
  • Nintendos forecast for this FY - 25.5M becomes reality
  • Huge decline of 50% every year starting April 2022,
  • 3 years of sales after current - FY22,23,24
  • Switch stops production as of March '24.
Forecast: 25.5M
110M at the end of the March '22

13M Sales during the FY22
123M at the end of March '23

6.5M sales during the FY23
129.5M at the end of March '24

3M Sales during the FY24
132M at the end of March '25

Those are some pretty dire numbers, and it still reaches 130M+.

Factors that's gonna affect numbers:

Switch Pro would have a positive impact on numbers
Switch 2 would have a negative impact on numbers
Lineup would have a positive impact on numbers

I'm in on team becoming the best selling system of all time
 
0
I do think it is possible when the Switch Pro or equivalent comes out. But I can also imagine that due to COVID we don't see the "Pro" and it will slowly taper off. It is also depended how the OLED will sell.
 
0
Aquarius said:
Question, what do you think the lifetime sales of the OLED Switch will be by itself?
Click to expand...
I am pretty unsure, because of the uncertainty in what comes next.

If a New 3DS style "Pro" is next and keeps the Switch on the market until 2024/early2025 like I mentioned, my guess would be something around 30-35 million ( Figuring about 60 million more switches would be sold from now until the end in that scenario, split about half and half between OLED and this basic style Pro ).

Or if a GBC style step comes next ( and is really only about a year- year and a half away ) then I feel something in the 25-32 million range is reasonable with the majority of that coming before the launch of the next step ( let's say about 8-10 million coming from the remainder of this fiscal year and about 12-15 million from the next fiscal year, with the rest coming after the launch of this new hardware). I don't think in this scenario they sell a significant amount of OLED systems after the launch of this Switch GBC equivalent.

All of this could be a very poorly informed prediction if either of these new models launch at a very significant price increase from the OLED, for instance more than say a $125 price increase, but I don't consider that very likely at all.

If it is a straight up Switch 2 we are looking at in a year to year and half's time than I would expect anywhere from 2/3rds to 3/4ths of the Remaining Switch sales to be the OLED model which I guess would have us back in the 25-30 million range if we are going by the numbers i guesstimated before about 130-135 million total which would be approx 40 million more than the current total.

Looking at it laid out like this makes me think that I may have undershot each scenario by about 3-5 million though in that earlier post, No matter their course of action though this next 1-1.5 years should be very illuminating as to their future plans.

Edit -- One thing to keep in mind with the upgraded models this late in a product lifecycle, is that the amount of previous owners trading up will likley result in a influx of the standard models on the used market this abundance should keep the price for the older Switch fairly reasonable, and will probably repress a good amount of their continued new sales alongside the upgraded model ( at least from the angle of large amount of people still buying the older model to save money ). Since alot of major game retailers also offer used hardware, and online services like ebay and amazon facilitate a large amount of these transactions, it is likely a big enough market to satisfy a considerable chunk of the demand for a cheaper Switch. --
 
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Looking at the charts for the previous systems, I'm gonna go with the "safe" bet of 130M-155M. 130M+ seems like a no brainer seeing as its already outpacing the PS4.

However the fact that it is not outpacing the 3DS makes me think it won't hit 155M. And given its hardware is already starting to show signs of age, I think they're going to release a "Switch 2" within 3 years, cutting the current one's life a bit too short to hit 155M.
 
0
Nintendo has a game like Splatoon 3 lined up for 2022. I think that shows that they want to have a long cross gen period for when the new Switch is out because games like Splatoon, Zelda, Mario sell for many years. If you're releasing Splatoon 3 in 2022, you can bet that it has a long term sales and support plan. Big games like Prime 4 and Zelda botw are scheduled for the upcoming years too and most definitely something 3D Mario and Mario Kart as well. I think it's reasonable to think the Switch will surpass 150 million because of the huge support it is still getting from Nintendo and I think Nintendo will have a successor out rather soonish that doesn't replace the Switch directly and that Nintendo will support the Switch for a long while even after Switch 2 is out. Maybe they'll drop the price of the Switch to impulse buy levels for casual players. The OLED model looks sleek enough to have a few more years of life in it.
 
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Aquarius said:
Disappointed to see this disgusting term being used here. (n) Already a bad sign. People buy what they like and vote with their hard earned dollars not yours.
Click to expand...
Just so you know, that post is a copy-pasta joke from NeoGAF days and the first one of these Betting Times threads.
 
Raccoon said:
in case you're serious, I am delighted to report that this is a copypasta
Click to expand...

Sander RX said:
Just so you know, that post is a copy-pasta joke from NeoGAF days and the first one of these Betting Times threads.
Click to expand...

pld said:
You got got :p

Funny how that copypasta still works today haha.
Click to expand...

sylvester-the-cat-cartoons.gif


You guys got me good. :ROFLMAO:
 
Skittzo said:
What's gonna be worse than all the "will Dane be a pro or a succ" talk now is the fact that we'll still be having that talk after it's announced and released, up until the first FY reports come out.

EDIT: Speaking of, teardowns confirm the dock with the OLED model was redesigned to output 4k/60fps. Obviously that won't mean anything for the OLED model but instead likely points to them future proofing it for a new console which can output higher than 1080p.

Which wouldn't make much sense if this new console is a "new gen" successor type console.
Click to expand...
Why wouldn't it make sense? They could make a successor that utilizes the same docking mechanism. TBH whether it's a pro or successor it'll likely use the same chip in the dock but change the shell to differentiate it from the OLED model so they don't look identical in marketing.
 
AdmiralFabulicious said:
Why wouldn't it make sense? They could make a successor that utilizes the same docking mechanism. TBH whether it's a pro or successor it'll likely use the same chip in the dock but change the shell to differentiate it from the OLED model so they don't look identical in marketing.
Click to expand...
They don't often allow accessories from their previous generation to be used with new generation hardware. Especially accessories only included with one specific revision type.

It feels more like the new dock will be the same one used with the new Dane Switch, and existing OLED docks will be updated to become compatible too. It would be pretty confusing if a new generation console is compatible with only OLED Switch docks.
 
If the 4K Switch is still marketed as a Switch and not a true successor, it'll definitely become the best selling imo.

If not, then no shot against PS2/DS to me
 
0
Skittzo said:
They don't often allow accessories from their previous generation to be used with new generation hardware. Especially accessories only included with one specific revision type.

It feels more like the new dock will be the same one used with the new Dane Switch, and existing OLED docks will be updated to become compatible too. It would be pretty confusing if a new generation console is compatible with only OLED Switch docks.
Click to expand...
You could use GC controllers on Wii (and even Wii U and Switch with the attachments). Wii U supported all previous Wii controllers.
 
AdmiralFabulicious said:
You could use GC controllers on Wii (and even Wii U and Switch with the attachments). Wii U supported all previous Wii controllers.
Click to expand...
Yeah I know it's been done before, which is why I said it hasn't been often.

GC controllers on Wii and Wii controllers on Wii U were one type of accessory each. With whatever Dane is it's highly likely all Switch controllers will be compatible too, in addition to the OLED dock.

That's a lot of stuff to be cross-compatible between generations, it feels much more like a "new" Switch type of product if it's sharing so many of the accessories and software ecosystem of the Switch.
 
0
We still have Metroid Prime 4 and Breath of the Wild 2 to push systems. Given that it already has a library in terms of volume that is one of the largest of all time and that increases weekly. I just don't see how the Switch doesn't pull it off.
 
0
I think the Switch's successor will launch in 2023 or 2024.

2024 would be the smartest release time, I think. By that time the Switch will have definitely hit its saturation point, but it also would have had a long, healthy life.

Ultimately I believe it will get close. The problem is I'm not sure how much it will sell after the 2 comes out, especially if that has backwards compatibility. Isn't a big part for why the PS2 is the undisputed champion its post PS3 sales?
 
0
I will say, I know this sounds silly but the Switch is the first time with a system where its so good that I kind of hope it takes longer than some people expect for a Switch 2.

From a bang-for-your-buck perspective, 2022 just looks insane and it would suck if a Switch 2 overshadowed the Switch in its twilight years.
 
0
Gonna go with 155M+ because why not.

Now if you’ll excuse I’ve got some informal advertising to do.
 
0
It’s hard to say purely because I don’t understand what they plan to do after the OLED. Will a successor come relatively soon after, like in 2023? Or will they make an actual Pro version that isn’t a full replacement? Do they do nothing and yet wait until 2024 for the succ?
I’m inclined to say that they can easily break the record if they want to do it, but if they don’t care and think prioritizing a successor is more important then they might not bother
 
0
I think Dane Switch will still be Switch family. It'll be counted alongside Switch OG, Lite and OLED just like GBC was counted with Game Boy. So, yeah, it'll easily become the best selling console of all time even if we have conservative estimates for every year from 2021-2024/25.
 
0
I strongly believe PS2 will be the undisputed champion for all time unless another disruptive technology like DVDs appear. The PS2 number is highly inflated by the low cost DVD player it was at the time - one of the best on the market especially at its price. The sheer amount of people who bought it as not a games console was staggering, even my grandparents owned one.

That being said, a major technology revisions of the Switch could come close. We've entered Game Boy Pocket territory with the SWOLED, but a Game Boy Color-like Pro could push it over the top. With a successor instead of an iteration, I can't foresee it breaking 140m unless Nintendo sells it forever like Sony did the PSX.
 
0
I'm in the 130M camp. I think if a Switch Pro does come it'll end higher but not by much.
 
0
I feel a (much, like 99$ or something crazy) cheaper version has to come out or something for it to beat the PS2.
 
0
With games like botw2, splatoon3, next xenogame, prime4, bayo3 or the next mario3d all targeting 2022/2023 I'm on the 150M+
If devkit for dane are already out that's mean a release fall 2022/ early 2023, and all those big releases will run on the switch so same family.
Some excusives will come but i don't except the next step before fall 2024/2025 when the next storm of nintendo big guns are ready and won't run on switch family ( but maybe some will run on the 4k switch if Nintendo want a iterative system)

165M switch family
March 2025 next system

Ready to eat crow 😜
 
0
Nah, Switch 2 will be out in 2023/2024, so hardly Switch can sell 155m+, but will probably reach something around 135m.
 
Simba1 said:
Nah, Switch 2 will be out in 2023/2024, so hardly Switch can sell 155m+, but will probably reach something around 135m.
Click to expand...
You think the dane/4kswitch will come in 2023/2024?
To me it's more a 2022 release as a relaunch of the switch like GBC, not a full new gen with software breaks.
But we will see.
 
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I fully expect it to beat out the PS4 and GB/GBC but fall well short of the PS2 and DS. So nearly 130 million seems like a somewhat safe prediction, especially if Nintendo offers a cheap Switch alongside the more expensive Switch 2 to eke out a few stragglers who just want a handful of games for cheap
 
0
Beorn said:
You think the dane/4kswitch will come in 2023/2024?
To me it's more a 2022 release as a relaunch of the switch like GBC, not a full new gen with software breaks.
But we will see.
Click to expand...

I have to agree with Simba. Next year just seems too early with them just releasing an OLED version. I know it’s not the same thing, but at least give it a couple of years so those who purchased the new console don’t feel completely shafted.

But Nintendo will Nintendo, so it wouldn’t surprise me if they did anyway.
 
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fiendcode said:
Honestly the curve is looking now like 130m is the floor. Beating PS2/DS is very much on the table, what an insane turnaround for Nintendo.
Click to expand...
Don’t know I think sales will start dropping off mid next year once rumors of next gen switch kick into full gear and it will sell 120-130 million total
 
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