Sales Data Betting Time: Will Nintendo Switch become the best selling system of all time?

[fiendcode]

Don’t know I think sales will start dropping off mid next year once rumors of next gen switch kick into full gear and it will sell 120-130 million total

It's going to be near 100m at the end of this year. I've been hearing Switch sales will fall off a cliff any day for 4 years now (and hearing about the Pro for half of them), I'll believe it when I see it.

130m would a precipitous drop off, 120m a record breaking one. These are basically the sky is falling, worst case scenarios.

 

[BlueManifest]

It's going to be near 100m at the end of this year. I've been hearing Switch sales will fall off a cliff any day for 4 years now (and hearing about the Pro for half of them), I'll believe it when I see it.

130m would a precipitous drop off, 120m a record breaking one. These are basically the sky is falling, worst case scenarios.

Look how fast the PS4 stopped though, as soon as it went past 110 million it was basically done

 

[fiendcode]

Look how fast the PS4 stopped though, as soon as it went past 110 million it was basically done

That only happened because Sony cut manufacturing so quickly. Switch would be a significantly steeper dropoff if it only did 120m too. Like it's not impossible, but like, selling 200m isn't impossible either.

 

[Heron]

No. I expect the "Dane" Switch to be Switch 2, a new generation. And I expect it either in March 2023 or Nov 2023.

Either way, that's not enough time to get over 155m - particularly because the modern way to do the transition is to wind down the old console quickly rather than reducing prices for the old machine.

 

[My Tulpa]

I do think it will, yes.

Assuming that the Switch upgrade next year is counted in the Switch family (I see no reason why it wouldn’t be)

 

[My Tulpa]

No. I expect the "Dane" Switch to be Switch 2, a new generation.

There is no way Nintendo treats Dane Switch as a successor and not a revision/iteration

 

[Heron]

There is no way Nintendo treats Dane Switch as a successor and not a revision/iteration

"There is no way Nintendo does X"

How many times have I heard that now? They're totally unpredictable.

Anyway, why do you think there's no way? How long do you expect Nintendo to be shackled to the specs of the original Switch? Their whole history says that they always move on from handheld tech after about 5 years. Extending that to 6-7 years makes sense for Switch as its so successful, but to 8-9 years or whatever it would be if the Dane Switch got a 2-3 year lifespan? No.

Their games are already emulatable on launch day. That's not great. Switch 2 will be a new generation.

 

[My Tulpa]

"There is no way Nintendo does X"

How many times have I heard that now? They're totally unpredictable.

Anyway, why do you think there's no way? How long do you expect Nintendo to be shackled to the specs of the original Switch? Their whole history says that they always move on from handheld tech after about 5 years. Extending that to 6-7 years makes sense for Switch as its so successful, but to 8-9 years or whatever it would be if the Dane Switch got a 2-3 year lifespan? No.

Their games are already emulatable on launch day. That's not great. Switch 2 will be a new generation.

Right, there is always a 1% chance Nintendo does X. I fully agree with you on that.

I’m just speaking of 99% certainty of what we know of Nintendo strategy since 2016. There is a clear and well documented shift.

They keep talking about moving to iterations like iPhones. They keep talking about a 10+ year lifecycle. They mentioned last year they were approaching Switch’s mid life cycle (hadn’t hit it yet)

Nothing, and I mean nothing, suggests the Switch platform is ending anytime soon.

If we are to assume Dane Switch is releasing in 2022, there is no way Nintendo is refreshing the Switch model with an OLED version in 2021 that is part of a dead platform 1-2 years later.

OLED Switch is expected to replace the current base switch. It will be the baseline low end switch for the next few years.

DLSS tech allows Nintendo to make 4K/60fps or 1080p/60fps games…while still targeting a 720p/900p render like they have been the past 4-5 years.

They can support the OG console for another 5 years while also providing “next gen Switch” type output going forward.

At the same time. No need for a clean break. It’s a revision. An iteration.

 

[Simba1]

You think the dane/4kswitch will come in 2023/2024?
To me it's more a 2022 release as a relaunch of the switch like GBC, not a full new gen with software breaks.
But we will see.

I dont see Switch OLED (Switch OLED isnt some silent revision with same price point like Switch V2 was) and "4K" Switch releasing with just year a part, Nate said that "4K" Switch was suposed to be released this year but it didnt because hole Covid and chip shortage situation so instead Nintendo released OLED,
I think that 2023. (even end of 2022.) is late for much stronger "4K" Switch revision because Switch will be in its 7. year on market, and that Nintendo simple decided to release full next gen Switch in 2023/2024. instead of stronger revision.