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Sales Data Betting Time: Will Nintendo Switch become the best selling system of all time?

How much will Nintendo Switch sell lifetime?

  • 100-130m: The system will start tapering off quickly

    Votes: 36 20.7%

  • 130m-155m: It will get close but not quite DS/PS2 levels

    Votes: 91 52.3%

  • 155m-200m: Best selling console of all time

    Votes: 40 23.0%

  • 200m+: TO THE MOON!

    Votes: 7 4.0%
  • Total voters
    174
Mina

Mina

Famicom Detective
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Y'all know we can't have a new forum without having a Betting Time thread!

With the Nintendo Switch guaranteed to surpass 100 million units this year, I figured it was a good time to check in: do you believe it can surpass the PS2?

Here's a chart to help give some context:
Screenshot_2021-11-04_183811.png
 
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This 100% depends on what they class the Dane Switch as. Personally I'm expecting it to be treated like a "new Switch" a la the New 3DS, so it will be counted with the original Switch. Meaning no traditional successor until 2025-2026, in which case yeah it'll definitely surpass 155M.

But if they consider the Dane Switch more of a Switch 2 (or a GBA to the Switch's GB) then it'll probably top out at close to 125M-130M.
 
It’s a testament that right now we have notable rumors and what looks like a pipeline that could have some incredible titles in not only it’s 6th year but also it’s 7th year (if metroid prime 4 , likely a new mario , pokemon gen 9, pikmin 4 all hit 2023) . Nintendo has been very vocal they want this system to last a long time , I think it can do it, or at least get really close, right now it shows no signs of stopping in a significant way and if anything the current chip shortage and other factors mean any (hard break) successor is further away than what was intended.
 
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Depends on the existence of a powerful Switch iteration. And also depends on the replacement rates.

I kinda feel even OLED will have very high replacement rates, I'd expect at least 40% of the regular Switch owners to adopt an OLED model before Switch Pro even launches. After Switch Pro launches, I'd expect the Pro replacement rate to be much higher than PS4 Pro or New 3DS. And of course it all depends on the exclusives it'll get but Mochi rumors indicate there will be a lot.

In the end I think 160 - 170m should be a safe bet. I really do.
 
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I think they can do it, momentum is still strong. A switch 2 too early would be a mistake if they want the best selling console of all time.
 
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Yes. I think the OLED Switch is going to sell another 40 million+ while the regular one and even the Lite will still keep selling.
 
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My only thought is late in 2022 switch might lose a lot of momentum if ps5 and xsx become a lot more available, which is why I think it'll come just below DS/PS2 like 140 million ish.
 
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I don't expect the Switch to be replaced until another three years, so I think it'll end up the best selling one yeah.

It'll be at about 110M after this holiday season. It won't sell less than 20 millions next year with this lineup (130M), then surely it can squeeze the remaining 25M over the next few years with some discounts and late gen cheap models.
 
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If the next system is considered a pro model where they are combined as one (Gameboy and Gameboy Color) then yes.

If the next system is considered a brand new generation, no.
 
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Before people ask, i'm the idiot who voted 200M+
I don't actually believe it will reach that but it's so difficult to gauge not knowing how long Nintendo will support it.
Also not knowing when Prime, Bayonetta and Zelda are coming out makes it even more complicating.
 
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Phantom Thief said:
2023, first half
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I think it'll be at or above 105M in January 2022, so yeah I guess another 25M before ~March 2023 makes sense, though maybe a bit on the low side considering the lineup next year. Also I'd expect it to sell a few million more after the successor is out.

Personally I think whatever Dane is, is coming next year and not 2023 so if it's a "new" model then sky's the limit but if it's a "2" type successor then another ~15M before then and another ~5-8M after then sounds about right.
 
Fundamentally I just don’t think the Switch has any competition in its market category , not truly , we’ve seen folks since 2017 try to argue that ps or xbox would eat into sales , and it’s still yet to happen . I don’t think next gen availability is gonna change much there . The other for the moment “would be “ competitor is the Steam Deck but that’s firmly being pushed as a boutique item and specifically for existing steam user .

In the end the only competition folks really seem to believe in is with itself and an eventual “switch 2”, but even that the effects of it i’m not too sure of if it’s not a hard break(and I really really doubt a successor isn’t backwards compatible and fairly iterative). There’s always late adopters to a platform especially if ever the platform significantly goes on sale (we are entering close to five years without a wide spread price cut ) and it’s hard to gauge how long a tail switch would have.

In recent gens with ps/xbox either intentionally or due to (obvious) circumstances we’ve seen a quick end of production of the previous systems. But with how nintendo operates (if you just look at the 3ds) , and statements they’ve made about the switch, I doubt that would be the case here.
 
Skittzo said:
I think it'll be at or above 105M in January 2022, so yeah I guess another 25M before ~March 2023 makes sense, though maybe a bit on the low side considering the lineup next year. Also I'd expect it to sell a few million more after the successor is out.

Personally I think whatever Dane is, is coming next year and not 2023 so if it's a "new" model then sky's the limit but if it's a "2" type successor then another ~15M before then and another ~5-8M after then sounds about right.
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Yeah I’m sure it can eke it’s way to 140 million+ In the couple of years that follow the presumed Switch 2 launch. I just don’t see it overtaking DS or PS2.

I do think the Dane will be a Switch 2, not a Pro
 
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Skittzo said:
This 100% depends on what they class the Dane Switch as. Personally I'm expecting it to be treated like a "new Switch" a la the New 3DS, so it will be counted with the original Switch. Meaning no traditional successor until 2025-2026, in which case yeah it'll definitely surpass 155M.

But if they consider the Dane Switch more of a Switch 2 (or a GBA to the Switch's GB) then it'll probably top out at close to 125M-130M.
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It’s interesting you mention that because I feel generations with Nintendo may not become like we know them as usually, but I see Switch 2 being like GB to GBC in a way. Nintendo counts it as one line, despite also being a successor. I personally also count it as one line despite the GBC being a clear step up.
 
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I imagine Nintendo will still sell the old Switch as long as they can beside the successor as a cheap option but I’m still highly optimistic it’ll be the best selling console of all time
 
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The system is guaranteed to do it BTW. If you disagree you are against mathematics.
 
It will reach 100 million this calendar year. Assuming they sell 20 million a year on average in the next two years, it will be at 140 by the end of 2023. But if they sell 25 million a year on average, it will be at 150. And it's not like it will stop selling after 2023. It's definitely possible.
 
Mina said:
The system is guaranteed to do it BTW. If you disagree you are against mathematics.
Click to expand...
An aside , when you’re the op of a thread the op banner perfect covers up Ryutaro’s face and it’s very funny .
 
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Depends if we count the more powerful Switch in the same family. If so, yes. 150m+
If not, no. It’ll taper off
 
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Once the Switch TV comes out at $99 in 2023 to use up old Mariko stock you better believe it'll hit 200
 
130ish mil. It will not outsell the PS2 / DS. The only way I can see it do that is if they offer a $99 Switch Micro.
 
Not without a proper Switch Pro version. If they release that, yes, it will be number 1. If not, it will be number 3.
 
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Coincidentally, Thomas Games Docs posted a video a few days ago sort of on the topic of how Nintendo fared against the competition.

 
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I voted 130M but it's more because I expected a successor to replace it soon enough rather than it dying (like the wii did).
 
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I don't expect PS2 or DS numbers but it will very close. At 2017 I expect the Switch sell Wii numbers, but I don't know what is the ceiling for the console.
 
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It's a threat for sure. I don't think it will wind down like the Wii and I hope that the attempt to maintain the 3DS as an "entry point" will be looked at closely. Matching the Wii will be fairly soon: let's just imagine that the end of calendar 2021 is the exact date; what is forecast for 2022 is already quite the bookmark for prestige and commercial releases. So I expect 120m to be achieved by end of calendar 2022. I don't even feel these are bold predictions. My non-expert prediction is 135, with the topping of the DS all coming down to their handover strategy to the next primary focus platform. To cross over 155, it will be an exciting thing to observe as it is no given as we all know.
 
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It depends on how they position the next revision. If it's treated as a "Pro" style refresh, then yes, absolutely, no doubt in my mind it will become the new king.
 
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You know the funny thing about these threads is the number/target keeps changing but the responses have not . a weird reverse moving goalpost .
 
I think it will get close to DS/PS2, but not enough to beat them. Though, it also depends on what Nintendo does with the next system. Will it still be a Switch and count as the current system, or will they introduce it as a new generation?
 
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Depends if Dane Switch is considered with actual Switch models.

If yes, its very possible it ends up selling more than PS2/NDS. I would say that 180-200 millions are possible.

If not, between 130-140 millions.
 
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Pandora said:
You know the funny thing about these threads is the number/target keeps changing but the responses have not . a weird reverse moving goalpost .
Click to expand...

Yeah, its funny to watch. First, Switch was too expensive, then it doesn't have AAA third party games. That didn't work, so it was it'll fall off a cliff like Wii and now its Nintendo will cut off a faster selling console than the PS4 and release a successor for "reasons". :LOL: I'll stick to 180 million, if it goes beyond that I wouldn't be surprised at all.
 
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It seems pretty difficult to put a fine point on how much the Switch will sell in the end without knowledge of how they plan to delineate what comes next ( A New 3DS style "Pro", An outright Switch 2 with backwards compatibility, Or something half way inbetween more akin to the GBC ).

I voted for the 130-155 Million range simply because I see 130 as the floor even if their was no successor whatsoever. I am confident they will finish this fiscal year with between 107-110 million units and if the software slate for the next fiscal year is anywhere near as good as we are expecting I believe that 18-22 million units is very realistic for the fiscal year ending March 2023. That would put it's life to date total anywhere for 125-132 million in March '23, even on the lowest end of that estimate Switch would pass 130 million by fall of 2023.

How far it can go beyond that is still up in the air, and may very much come down to the semantics of what they decide to call their next piece of hardware after the OLED and how they bundle the reported numbers, but the potential certainly exists to become the new #1 selling console.

I think the overall promise of the the Switch and Nintendo ecosystem/future is what is most interesting. I have no doubt the PS5 and Xbox Series will do very well on the back of their blockbuster titles, and in Xbox's case more specifically the affordability of it's ecosystem, but I can't help shake the feeling that they are only really able to pull from audiences that were already theirs. Meaning that if PS4 and Xbox ONE did not draw you in, what do these new consoles do differently that would change your mind (I admit that it is still too early in their respective lifecycles to really make this judgment, this is just the impression I have for now). When I look at Switch I can see it drawing from people who were into the Wii/Wii-U and more family/party games or Nintendo home consoles in general, Nintendo DS/3DS ( I feel like this would include most of the core Nintendo fans ), PSP/Vita as it is really only the machine to still offer a somewhat similar experience, as well as some people who were more heavily into Sony's output on PS1 and PS2 and the type of games that were lost as Sony refocused itself towards the end of the PS3 lifecycle. I can even see it bringing some PC players who are more interested in indies and small scale ( Not online multiplayer focused ) titles into the console fold, though I doubt this group represents as large a portion of the Switch base as the others. This is of course a very rosy view of Switch/Nintendo potential and the Switch obviously only brings a portion of each of the aforementioned markets which do not transfer over in their entirety. The overall maybe messy point I'm making is that it seems to me that the Switch is able to pull it's audience from more formerly disparate groups, as compared to the new PS5 and Xbox which would pull mostly from their direct predecessors, and that seems very healthy to me.

I have made this post entirely to long to convey a pretty basic point, haven't I.
 
I'm 100% with Phantom Theif here.

Dane is just too powerful to be a pro model, IMO. And it will be too pricey to be marketing as anything other than a new generation, though I think we'll see a longer cross-gen period from Nintendo anyways. Dane seems imminent TBH, so a 2023 release seems likely. Switch will be around 130M around then or close to it. After that it could still leg it out to the 140's, but I don't see it passing that.
 
CJ_arcadian said:
It seems pretty difficult to put a fine point on how much the Switch will sell in the end without knowledge of how they plan to delineate what comes next ( A New 3DS style "Pro", An outright Switch 2 with backwards compatibility, Or something half way inbetween more akin to the GBC ).

I voted for the 130-155 Million range simply because I see 130 as the floor even if their was no successor whatsoever. I am confident they will finish this fiscal year with between 107-110 million units and if the software slate for the next fiscal year is anywhere near as good as we are expecting I believe that 18-22 million units is very realistic for the fiscal year ending March 2023. That would put it's life to date total anywhere for 125-132 million in March '23, even on the lowest end of that estimate Switch would pass 130 million by fall of 2023.

How far it can go beyond that is still up in the air, and may very much come down to the semantics of what they decide to call their next piece of hardware after the OLED and how they bundle the reported numbers, but the potential certainly exists to become the new #1 selling console.

I think the overall promise of the the Switch and Nintendo ecosystem/future is what is most interesting. I have no doubt the PS5 and Xbox Series will do very well on the back of their blockbuster titles, and in Xbox's case more specifically the affordability of it's ecosystem, but I can't help shake the feeling that they are only really able to pull from audiences that were already theirs. Meaning that if PS4 and Xbox ONE did not draw you in, what do these new consoles do differently that would change your mind (I admit that it is still too early in their respective lifecycles to really make this judgment, this is just the impression I have for now). When I look at Switch I can see it drawing from people who were into the Wii/Wii-U and more family/party games or Nintendo home consoles in general, Nintendo DS/3DS ( I feel like this would include most of the core Nintendo fans ), PSP/Vita as it is really only the machine to still offer a somewhat similar experience, as well as some people who were more heavily into Sony's output on PS1 and PS2 and the type of games that were lost as Sony refocused itself towards the end of the PS3 lifecycle. I can even see it bringing some PC players who are more interested in indies and small scale ( Not online multiplayer focused ) titles into the console fold, though I doubt this group represents as large a portion of the Switch base as the others. This is of course a very rosy view of Switch/Nintendo potential and the Switch obviously only brings a portion of each of the aforementioned markets which do not transfer over in their entirety. The overall maybe messy point I'm making is that it seems to me that the Switch is able to pull it's audience from more formerly disparate groups, as compared to the new PS5 and Xbox which would pull mostly from their direct predecessors, and that seems very healthy to me.

I have made this post entirely to long to convey a pretty basic point, haven't I.
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Your post is fine. I just disagree with the sales. I think Switch will go much higher. We will all see who is right in the end. :)
 
Depending on how long they keep the switch name before there is a switch 2 or something else from them. They really are doing their best to stretch the life of it. We will have to see how the OLED model sales are.
 
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Sander RX said:
Boy these betting times threads have come a long way.

To think that “100-130m” would become the lower end prediction.
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I remember the majority of people at the old place in the January 2017 shareholders presentation thread were so certain it would be sub-Wii U LTS
 
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I think this will be the peak year. Then it really depends on how well Nintendo supports the console with new games because they tend to be a bit shit towards the end of a consoles lifespan. The Kirby games come out in force. As soon as a successor is announced I expect sales to decrease quickly. We've seen Japanese figures decrease since the announcement of the OLED. I'm going to predict 140 million.
 
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AdmiralFabulicious said:
I'm 100% with Phantom Theif here.

Dane is just too powerful to be a pro model, IMO. And it will be too pricey to be marketing as anything other than a new generation, though I think we'll see a longer cross-gen period from Nintendo anyways. Dane seems imminent TBH, so a 2023 release seems likely. Switch will be around 130M around then or close to it. After that it could still leg it out to the 140's, but I don't see it passing that.
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I'd hesitantly count myself among those who think a Dane Pro doesn't make sense. I really don't see 4K and DLSS as anything less than a successor platform.

That being said, I think the software component of technological improvements is too often overlooked in this discussion. There is a case to be made for either conclusion: Nintendo is arguably reaching the peak of fidelity that their current pipeline can support (see Monolith Soft supplementing high quality assets for EPD) and that therefore a large technical jump will improve performance and resolution, functionally serving as a pro; or alternatively Nintendo's technological advancements are so limited that major technology needs to be tied to distinct product families in order to push them forward.
 
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What's gonna be worse than all the "will Dane be a pro or a succ" talk now is the fact that we'll still be having that talk after it's announced and released, up until the first FY reports come out.

EDIT: Speaking of, teardowns confirm the dock with the OLED model was redesigned to output 4k/60fps. Obviously that won't mean anything for the OLED model but instead likely points to them future proofing it for a new console which can output higher than 1080p.

Which wouldn't make much sense if this new console is a "new gen" successor type console.
 
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