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StarTopic Nintendo Direct Speculation |ST5| Uncharted Territory: Drake's Deception

When is the next general full-length Direct?

  • June

    Votes: 130 38.0%
  • July

    Votes: 40 11.7%
  • August

    Votes: 15 4.4%
  • September

    Votes: 129 37.7%
  • October

    Votes: 1 0.3%
  • November

    Votes: 1 0.3%
  • December

    Votes: 1 0.3%
  • January

    Votes: 13 3.8%
  • February

    Votes: 1 0.3%
  • Never

    Votes: 11 3.2%

  • Total voters
    342
  • Poll closed .
Status
Not open for further replies.
For me, the direct h/cope dies if/when Nintendo makes an announcement like Paper Mario Origami King via twitter. A "major" game by everyone but Dring's analysis coming out in August/September.

No Everybody's 1-2 Switch doesn't count because we know that game is being sent to die.
 
I'm still trying to figure out why some are so confident in 2d Mario absolutely being this year. I have no doubt that one is being worked on, but to act so confident that it has to come out this year is baffling me. For all we know Nintendo is happy with NSMB U deluxe and Mario maker 2 representing the 2d style and is content to wait till next gen Switch for 2d Mario.

I truly feel that after Pikmin 4 we will be in a somewhat familiar territory of transition where the titles will be a bit smaller and that's ok. Nintendo needs to have great software lined up for next generation. We are in Gamecube 2006, Wii 2012, and Wii u 2016 territory. Doesn't mean we won't get new games this next year and a half but they will be lower caliber like remasters and casual focused games. I believe and almost hope at this point that Prime 4 is cross gen.
 
I’m out of the loop about the sales pattern. I know patterns have failed us before, but how reliable has this one been?

EDIT: Nevermind, it was already addressed above.
 
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There was sales tweet early last June and Direct did not happened the same week or week after, the pattern is dead

But what if:

7of6qy.jpg


?
 
It's really fun how people who were doubting Direct because of Pikmin are now supporting it because sales pattern. You have less than 12 hours to join my side, this train is not going back, we are getting a June General Direct and you all know it. You will regret at the end.

@Dardan Sandiego I have all the paterns learned in the back of my head, even the non working ones.
 
Prime 4 being crossgen makes so much sense. It was Nintendo’s master plan all along.

I don’t double dip on a game unless it’s a remaster/remake. Prime 4 would be the one game to make me do it. They just want that extra sale from me.

Crafty.
 
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wonder where the fe4 remake fits into all this.
its got to be almost finished but they could hold onto it like they did for engage to have a good spacing between entries

That is kind of what I 'm thinking. Early 2024 sounds right.
 
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sales theory:

If there is a sale in June that means June will have a sale on video games

checkmate, non-believers
 
I can see the FE4 remake being a Switch game released after Switch 2 launches just to give people who haven't upgraded a big new game to play, especially if S2 is BC.
 
It's really fun how people who were doubting Direct because of Pikmin are now supporting it because sales pattern. You have less than 12 hours to join my side, this train is not going back, we are getting a June General Direct and you all know it. You will regret at the end.

@Dardan Sandiego I have all the paterns learned in the back of my head, even the non working ones.
It's much more fun to be on the No June Direct Train because if we're wrong, we all just jump off and watch the new Metroid Prime 4 trailer anyway
 
I must admit that Nintendo is trying all weird shenanigans with patterns these days. For example things like Xenoblade 3 DLC trailer, NSO releases and latest Everybody 1-2 Switch! were revealed at 3AM CEST time (later in the evening at US). the very different one than the classic 23:00 JST/early morning in US that they use for most announcements (just now with Pikmin also). But the Direct announcement pattern will never be broken, it's always 23:00 JST.

But even this pattern has really good explanation: Everybody 1-2 Switch, Xenoblade DLC and NSO releases have different time because that's when eShop is updating. At 9pm in US.
 
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I'm still trying to figure out why some are so confident in 2d Mario absolutely being this year. I have no doubt that one is being worked on, but to act so confident that it has to come out this year is baffling me. For all we know Nintendo is happy with NSMB U deluxe and Mario maker 2 representing the 2d style and is content to wait till next gen Switch for 2d Mario.
Gonna reply in detail, so I want to apologise in advance if this feels like I'm blasting you. I'm not! I just want to demonstrate that there is clear reasoning to think something like 2D Mario could launch this year, and it's not a fever dream. Sure, maybe I'm wrong on it, but I think it's one of the strongest candidates for holidays 2023.

Because 2D Mario has a number of supporting factors for 2023. There's evidence - between hiring calls and known EPD staff activity - that new 2D Mario has had somewhere around 4 to 5 years of development time. Additionally, Nintendo don't have the luxury of their annual 15 to 25 million selling Pokemon RPG this year, which puts a big dent in hitting their hardware and software targets (which, by Nintendo's own admission, are ambitious). Mario is the brand with the selling power to plug the gap by targeting a wide audience in the most importance sales season of the year. Every October, bar 2020 when 3D All-Stars launched in September, Switch has had some form of Super Mario release, if we include Luigi's Mansion 3.

Secondly, Tears of the Kingdom launching on Switch should prove Nintendo aren't holding all their big guns for the next generation. They have precious few guns bigger than open world Zelda, but they were happy to get that out on Switch. Equally, look at Sony in 2020, putting out huge PS4 titles literally months away from the launch of PS5. You don't hold everything back for your new system when you have 100 million plus users to sell software to in the here and now, not least because it will take years for those people to upgrade anyway.

I'd also argue 2D Mario is less important in the context of new hardware, especially since Mario Odyssey demonstrates that 3D Mario can have a similar selling power to 2D Mario and shift 25 million plus. I'd also argue that 3D Mario would benefit more from additional processing power; Bowser's Fury was locked to 30fps in portable mode and had serious frame rate issues at times. You'd also have series like Pokemon, Animal Crossing, Splatoon, Smash, Mario Kart and Mario Party all targeting 2025 to 2027 for the new hardware, so I don't think another big seller on Switch this year is going to cause long-term issues. Certainly, if Nintendo's software pipeline isn't robust enough to manage that, then their reorganisation and expansion over the last 8 years has fallen short.
I truly feel that after Pikmin 4 we will be in a somewhat familiar territory of transition where the titles will be a bit smaller and that's ok. Nintendo needs to have great software lined up for next generation. We are in Gamecube 2006, Wii 2012, and Wii u 2016 territory. Doesn't mean we won't get new games this next year and a half but they will be lower caliber like remasters and casual focused games. I believe and almost hope at this point that Prime 4 is cross gen.
Except two of those systems were commercial failures, not worth supporting with significant software; Wii is the only system which had a large audience and failing to retain their significant audience on Wii is one of the issues which led to Wii U itself failing. Nintendo didn't dial back software on Wii out of some deliberate strategy to help Wii U succeed: they dialled down support because they didn't have the resources to support DS, Wii, 3DS and Wii U adequately through the transitional period. That wrecked Wii's momentum, nearly kneecapped 3DS, and left Wii U without a shot at success.

The restructure into EPD was designed to avoid exactly this kind of imbalance during generational transitions. People harp on about how EPD and the hybrid hardware was meant to solve software droughts but miss the key point: it was meant to avoid droughts at the start and end of a system's life.
 
There’s Grezzo’s New IP; Apple Arcade exclusive.

 
There’s Grezzo’s New IP; Apple Arcade exclusive.

fridge-nothing-to-eat.gif
 
There’s Grezzo’s New IP; Apple Arcade exclusive.

getting some EPD9 Tour energy
 
There’s Grezzo’s New IP; Apple Arcade exclusive.

Well the good news is that it shouldn't have taken that many resources...
 
There’s Grezzo’s New IP; Apple Arcade exclusive.

For fuck sake
 
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There’s Grezzo’s New IP; Apple Arcade exclusive.

Proof that Nintendo should Thanos 2D Zelda

And by that I mean do it themselves, not snap it out of existence
 
Would Grezzo really look at selling like, 20 million plus copies of Zelda games under Nintendo's contracts, and then be like, "sure let's risk it all on the hyper competitive phone market"?

I mean hypothetically I know this happens, but also surely keeping contract work open for security's sake would be the smarter move.
 
Would Grezzo really look at selling like, 20 million plus copies of Zelda games under Nintendo's contracts, and then be like, "sure let's risk it all on the hyper competitive phone market"?

I mean hypothetically I know this happens, but also surely keeping contract work open for security's sake would be the smarter move.
it's apple arcade though, that's a steady contract iirc
 
Except two of those systems were commercial failures, not worth supporting with significant software; Wii is the only system which had a large audience and failing to retain their significant audience on Wii is one of the issues which led to Wii U itself failing. Nintendo didn't dial back software on Wii out of some deliberate strategy to help Wii U succeed: they dialled down support because they didn't have the resources to support DS, Wii, 3DS and Wii U adequately through the transitional period. That wrecked Wii's momentum, nearly kneecapped 3DS, and left Wii U without a shot at success.

The restructure into EPD was designed to avoid exactly this kind of imbalance during generational transitions. People harp on about how EPD and the hybrid hardware was meant to solve software droughts but miss the key point: it was meant to avoid droughts at the start and end of a system's life.
I agree with what you are saying and it makes logical sense. I think it is fair to say that in the past Nintendo has struggled to have clean transitions to new hardware especially when the prior generation is successful. Hopefully this time around they can thread the needle and keep current Switch healthy while also providing adequate resources to next gen.
 
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