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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (New Staff Post, Please read)

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Paxie said:
Tbh the only reason I have any faith in the 2022/2023 reports is DF backing it up
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You remember the days when DF used to heavily insist on how game #1 or game #2 looked "a little bit too good for the switch" wink wink nudge nudge and in the end, those games released on switch and looked exactly like that?
Well I do, and for that reason, I put very little faith in whatever DF says regarding the next Nintendo hardware.

I do trust them when it comes to telling me wherever Zelda TikTok is 30fps 97% of the time or 96% of the time though.
 
oldpuck said:
First off, it's gonna be a portable Nintendo device. I know optimism and pessimism like to run rampant around here, but I think that we should expect, well... more Switch. Nintendo games look great, last-gen ports look great and are now playable handheld, and the solidity of the basic design allows a class of current-gen "miracle ports" that seem impossible.

Second, I agree that the CPU is probably the most likely bottleneck that games will consistently encounter. There are those who disagree - storage speeds and memory bandwidth are the other likely culprits. But every system has a bottleneck somewhere, it's inevitable. It's just "how major and how consistent is it an issue?"

Which brings me to number three - and let me quote Ollie himself from the video.


The current state of PC ports is a mess, and UE4 wasn't built for modern multi-core CPUs. Truly "next gen" games will be built on engines that aren't yet widely available, and it remains to be seen how they will scale on the CPU side.

It's up in the air of the CPU in REDACTED will be "worse" or "better" - there aren't great benchmarks that can really tell if the Cortex A78 can go toe to toe with Zen 2 at matched clocks, but it seems likely that it will be underpowered just for battery life reasons. But the current generation has had some real serious growing pains on the CPU side, just due to cross-gen and Covid. So it's hard to game out what the next few years are going to look like.

But again - Nintendo exclusives + last gen portable + current gen "miracle ports" + more indies than you can shake a stick at. That's what you're getting, and if its better than that, great. But I wouldn't expect it.
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In theory, Drake A78s just needs 1.5Ghz CPU cores (7 for gaming) to match SD's in most bench marks.. no? Per GHz, they're the same in some areas.

Will be interesting to see what they do with a 5 or 4nm node. I'd rather have 1.7 GHz CPUs with 3 tflops GPU than 1.5 or less GHz CPUs with 4 TFLOPs GPU. It's already said before as well that 4 TFLOPs GPU is getting diminishing gains with a small bandwidth from lpddr5 at 102 GB/s bandwidth as well. Don't know if 133 GB/s from LPDDR5X would be enough..
 
Hermii said:
First, what is your source on when they were being sent out?

2.Nd whywould Richard Linklater lie about devkits being recalled?
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Some studios got access in very late 2020 & by late... I'm talking Nov/Dec window.

And if people think Rich is lying... feel free; but Rich is no fool. He knows what he's talking about.
 
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oldpuck said:
T239 sampled sometime between April and August of last year. 18 months was Nintendo's target date from sampling, but they went 24 months for software reasons.

That gives you a wide "data driven" window of October this year to August of next year. Within that window there aren't strong reasons to believe any one date, so it starts to become a gut check. And by definition, a gut check isn't objective.

Nintendo probably wants a holiday launch all else being equal. That's not to say that all else is equal. But if Nintendo has wiggle room in terms of software, and can stay reasonably profitable in the interim, Holiday 2024 is better than Spring 2024. The market isn't going to appreciably change in that six month window - Steam Deck still represents the peak of their competition in the handheld space, and there isn't going to be an APU that changes that in the next year, just looking at nodes and AMD's roadmap. Price cuts aren't coming to Series S|X, and while Sony seems to have some sort of cloud handheld and PS5 Pro planned, neither are going to fundamentally alter the dynamic of this generation.

I say "absence of evidence is not evidence of absence" often enough that it should be my signature, but I think "evidence of absence" is also hard to define. We're looking at either an uncharacteristically long gen, or an uncharacteristically fast* marketing cycle. Yes, corporations deceive, mislead, and equivocate. But Nintendo is projecting "this uncharacteristically long generation is uncharacteristically successful."

Meanwhile, Ubisoft is leaking like crazy, trying to get someone to buy them, and yet not a whiff about an internal REDACTED project. I don't see a hole in Squeenix's schedule for a REDACTED game. Panic Button seems occupied with Series S/X support.

All of these are small weights, but they tip the balance for me. I'm moving the Official OldPuck prediction to Holiday 2024.

* Notice I don't say short. There are ways to lay the groundwork for a marketing cycle that precede the start. Steering the conversation from Tears to REDACTED, while not having any event to center it around, is wildly different from a period of quiet leading up to an E3 reveal. Which is not to say that's how Nintendo will do it, just that there is no groundwork laid for a launch that allows them to maximize eyeballs and control the narrative.
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Especially after the recent Q&A confirming what many thought was the case that Nintendo didn't really want to announce Project NX when they did, I'm not sure a marketing cycle that is around the same length as the one for the Switch (starting with the reveal trailer) is really terribly uncharacteristic of Nintendo.
 
Pokemaniac said:
Especially after the recent Q&A confirming what many thought was the case that Nintendo didn't really want to announce Project NX when they did, I'm not sure a marketing cycle that is around the same length as the one for the Switch (starting with the reveal trailer) is really terribly uncharacteristic of Nintendo.
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Nintendo can easily announce plans for the successor in April 2024 and release in Holiday 2024/early 2025 and be fine. They could even wait until later in the year, if they want to. Marketing cycles for hardware no longer require lengthy marketing builds. A tight 6 month window is more that sufficient. As said prior, my own expectation is Nintendo doesn't reveal the successor until suppliers begin to move product -- April thru June 2024.

Maybe they go sooner and try to announce it during the current FY in Q4 (Jan-March).
 
Bosintang said:
You remember the days when DF used to heavily insist on how game #1 or game #2 looked "a little bit too good for the switch" wink wink nudge nudge and in the end, those games released on switch and looked exactly like that?
Well I do, and for that reason, I put very little faith in whatever DF says regarding the next Nintendo hardware.

I do trust them when it comes to telling me wherever Zelda TikTok is 30fps 97% of the time or 96% of the time though.
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what about when they put out an article and video stating what the next switch is, definitively?
 
ShadowFox08 said:
In theory, Drake A78s just needs 1.5Ghz CPU cores (7 for gaming) to match SD's in most bench marks.. no? Per GHz, they're the same in some areas.

Will be interesting to see what they do with a 5 or 4nm node. I'd rather have 1.7 GHz CPUs with 3 tflops GPU than 1.5 or less GHz CPUs with 4 TFLOPs GPU. It's already said before as well that 4 TFLOPs GPU is getting diminishing gains with a small bandwidth from lpddr5 at 102 GB/s bandwidth as well. Don't know if 133 GB/s from LPDDR5X would be enough..
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im hope for 2GHz, but it can be thing only with TSMC 4N imo
 
0
ILikeFeet said:
DF doesn't show anything. they just say what they can verify from their trusted sources. like they did with all the other leaks they had done
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Indeed, and their lack of [Redacted] news tells me that nothing has hit the sales division of Nintendo Europe which I presume was their original source.
 
Giancarlo said:
so you believe despite the possibilty of Tears of the Kingdom outselling Breath of the Wild, the game will not reverse the decrease in sales of Switch? we shall see
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TotK can outsell BotW and that still wouldn't be enough to move hardware in my eyes.
 
Foltzie said:
Indeed, and their lack of [Redacted] news tells me that nothing has hit the sales division of Nintendo Europe which I presume was their original source.
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i believe Nintendo is tighting they security regarding leaks for the Switch sucessor, that why he has not heard no information for the sucessor so far, we shall how Nintendo has acted in regard to the Legend of Zelda Tears of the Kingdom artbook leaks and the game itseft leaked, i will not be suprised, of they are under a iron gaurd to assure, no leaks for Switch sucessor
 
Foltzie said:
Indeed, and their lack of [Redacted] news tells me that nothing has hit the sales division of Nintendo Europe which I presume was their original source.
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a lot of their sources come from third party developers as they have direct access and good relations with them.
 
NateDrake said:
Nintendo can easily announce plans for the successor in April 2024 and release in Holiday 2024/early 2025 and be fine. They could even wait until later in the year, if they want to. Marketing cycles for hardware no longer require lengthy marketing builds. A tight 6 month window is more that sufficient. As said prior, my own expectation is Nintendo doesn't reveal the successor until suppliers begin to move product -- April thru June 2024.

Maybe they go sooner and try to announce it during the current FY in Q4 (Jan-March).
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When Devs you're talking to were told to return development kits, were they given any indication as to what was being changed/added? (I assume anything more specific than a yes/no to this question would be under FrieNDA)
 
Giancarlo said:
so you believe despite the possibilty of Tears of the Kingdom outselling Breath of the Wild, the game will not reverse the decrease in sales of Switch? we shall see
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When BotW came out, almost everyone who wanted to play it needed to buy a Switch in order to do so. That's nowhere near the case for TotK. I could see it maybe slowing the decrease a little, but not reversing it.

The vast, vast majority of those 10 million people who just bought TotK likely already have Switches.
 
Bosintang said:
You remember the days when DF used to heavily insist on how game #1 or game #2 looked "a little bit too good for the switch" wink wink nudge nudge and in the end, those games released on switch and looked exactly like that?
Well I do, and for that reason, I put very little faith in whatever DF says regarding the next Nintendo hardware.

I do trust them when it comes to telling me wherever Zelda TikTok is 30fps 97% of the time or 96% of the time though.
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I agree with the idea that there may be confirmation bias (I feel the same way about other definitive statements from other sources doubting backwards compatibility or the existence of post-Totk games), but to play devil's advocate, it is true in the case of Totk that some of the images offered before the game's release seem to be more beautiful than what we see in the final product, right?
 
Bosintang said:
As the rules of this forum encourage coward subposting about other contributors (and even about specific games), I refuse to answer this question without my lawyer.

I will just say that "dev kits have been sent out since 2020" was a huge argument supporting the narrative of the console releasing in 2022, and later in "H2 2023/H1 2023". This topic may sometimes have the memory of a squirrel, but the north remembers.

"Development kits were sent in 2020", "development kits were recalled 2 years later", and "no one complained that their work of 2 years was abruptly thrown to the bin" are a highly unlikely combination of factors.
And when someone is claiming something unlikely without substantiating it and having been repeatedly wrong on that specific topic, it's only fair to call bullshit. Which I did.
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I think they could all be true, however that point of view would indeed point towards an earlier launch than 2024. Kits were sent out, kits were pulled, and nobody's upset. Why? Maybe they got updated kits. Unless someone in the chain is lying, isn't that the most logical answer? Nobody's upset because they returned a jury-rigged piece of kit and were told "instead use this software environment under Windows with these specs". Isn't that more or less where we would be at that point? Early, early kits targeting key features sent out, then an SDK more accurate to the planned hardware sent out and the early kit recalled, and now or briefly before now, finalised development hardware in developer hands.

Early Switch dev kits were ARM CPUs hotwired into a Wii U. Now, the Switch SDK exists sans hardware.

We know from the leaks, too, that the next Switch's SDK exists sans hardware, but targeting hardware they were designing. Hardware that was completed around this time last year.

Now here we stand. With, possibly, final hardware production lines nearly ready. Possibly, final dev hardware distributed. Almost certainly, hardware accurate SDKs floating around.

I see no reason to throw doubt into that situation. If production begins this summer, and I have no reason to doubt it will based on existing rumours and leaks, then this device is slated for this holiday. Xbox Series X was finalised in June and spun up production in September. It released in November. Nintendo hasn't run out of track yet.
 
boodream said:
I agree with the idea that there may be confirmation bias (I feel the same way about other definitive statements from other sources doubting backwards compatibility or the existence of post-Totk games), but to play devil's advocate, it is true in the case of Totk that some of the images offered before the game's release seem to be more beautiful than what we see in the final product, right?
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It might have been from a PC build, in that case.
 
oldpuck said:
T239 sampled sometime between April and August of last year. 18 months was Nintendo's target date from sampling, but they went 24 months for software reasons.

That gives you a wide "data driven" window of October this year to August of next year. Within that window there aren't strong reasons to believe any one date, so it starts to become a gut check. And by definition, a gut check isn't objective.

Nintendo probably wants a holiday launch all else being equal. That's not to say that all else is equal. But if Nintendo has wiggle room in terms of software, and can stay reasonably profitable in the interim, Holiday 2024 is better than Spring 2024. The market isn't going to appreciably change in that six month window - Steam Deck still represents the peak of their competition in the handheld space, and there isn't going to be an APU that changes that in the next year, just looking at nodes and AMD's roadmap. Price cuts aren't coming to Series S|X, and while Sony seems to have some sort of cloud handheld and PS5 Pro planned, neither are going to fundamentally alter the dynamic of this generation.

I say "absence of evidence is not evidence of absence" often enough that it should be my signature, but I think "evidence of absence" is also hard to define. We're looking at either an uncharacteristically long gen, or an uncharacteristically fast* marketing cycle. Yes, corporations deceive, mislead, and equivocate. But Nintendo is projecting "this uncharacteristically long generation is uncharacteristically successful."

Meanwhile, Ubisoft is leaking like crazy, trying to get someone to buy them, and yet not a whiff about an internal REDACTED project. I don't see a hole in Squeenix's schedule for a REDACTED game. Panic Button seems occupied with Series S/X support.

All of these are small weights, but they tip the balance for me. I'm moving the Official OldPuck prediction to Holiday 2024.
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I don't disagree with the internal consistency of this argument, but it's important to note that many of those small weights on the balance are premised on the idea that the new hardware must release with some number of hardware-exclusive third party software at or close to the launch.

If Nintendo intends to keep sales for the original Switch at a fairly elevated level despite a new hardware announcement, then one apparent way to do it is to release the new device with only cross gen titles and then slowly work the next gen titles in over the next fiscal year. Though I suppose you can also call this an uncharacteristically slow console transition, which could be seen as another weight in favor of a late 2024 release.

* Notice I don't say short. There are ways to lay the groundwork for a marketing cycle that precede the start. Steering the conversation from Tears to REDACTED, while not having any event to center it around, is wildly different from a period of quiet leading up to an E3 reveal. Which is not to say that's how Nintendo will do it, just that there is no groundwork laid for a launch that allows them to maximize eyeballs and control the narrative.
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Is an announcement soon after Tears of the Kingdom really indicative of one done with a lack of groundwork? It's hard to imagine exactly how such an announcement would play out, but if TOTK is somehow involved in the marketing for the new device then it could very good timing. Also, with the current situation where most new Switch games, including TOTK, might be hitting a ceiling in terms of sales, and given that, in the absence of new hardware, most lifetime sales for the game would likely happen in the first few weeks, it could very well be the best groundwork for the new hardware's marketing cycle.

Of course, this is just a hypothetical based on assumptions, but assumptions are all we have to go on until Nintendo decides to announce what they're doing with the second half of this year.
 
fwd-bwd said:
just wanted to point out that the word "stretch" (ストレッチ)
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IF that word was used, they would've used the Japanese word. ストレッチ is just Stretch typed in Japanese characters. It's literally ス (Su)ト(To) レ(Re) ッチ (Chi). I'm sure they have a Japanese word for it.
 
BDGAME said:
The problem in most of the Deck games on that DF video was how limited was the CPU. They complain a lot about it.

And didn't the rumors of Switch 2 here say it will have a CPU worse than Steam Deck? If true that machine will suffer to run games from current gen.
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In theory it should be better, it’s 8 physical cores vs 4, even if it is in fact 8 threads vs 8 threads.

But that’s just it, it is theoretical. We have to wait and see how it truly is in practice.

I know we’ve compared with synthetic benchmarks in the past, but until we see actual real world performance with optimization for ARM-based CPUs on the, well, CPU, we won’t know with total certainty where it stands for gaming workloads.

And clock speeds matter for this. I hope it is 1.9-2.13GHz or there about, while remaining relatively safe battery consumption wise, but don’t hold my breath.

The A78, which is what we assume, reaches max of 3.3GHz in clock frequency (I’m not asking for that) and 1.9-2.1GHz would be in roughly a similar spot to the 1GHz switch when the A57 can reach 2GHz.

But this is assuming it’s on a very efficient node.

Otherwise like I said, these are theoretical so let’s wait and see.

ShadowFox08 said:
it's important to note that 1 core would be for the OS, and 3 for games, vs modern console CPUs that have 8 cores, with 6-7 for gaming
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PC doesn’t really worry about that 1 core business like console does.

ShadowFox08 said:
The A78 CPUs are pretty close to Zen 2 in performance. I'm not sure if it was multithreaded or single core performance where Zen 2 had a bigger advantage over A78
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Multi threaded, and clock speeds.

oldpuck said:
The current state of PC ports is a mess, and UE4 wasn't built for modern multi-core CPUs. Truly "next gen" games will be built on engines that aren't yet widely available, and it remains to be seen how they will scale on the CPU side.
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People wanted the death of last gen and will now suffer as such. Reap what you sow.

Last gen had poor CPUs, so you can get by with a lower end CPU. Current gen has competent CPUs, so you’ll get CPUs that raise the bar significantly.

Now all I see are people complaining about things they asked for. Some of it is partly because well, bad optimization, but the other part is that the requirements are much higher than 10 years ago and games are built on a PC-like devices and it transfers over.

Reap what thou has sowed🤷🏾‍♂️

Hermii said:
Richard Linklater
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Wait what, who is this??
 
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D36 said:
It might have been from a PC build, in that case.
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You and what dev environment? 😂

On a serious note, I don't think it's very Nintendo to develop graphical features they don't release, which they seem to have done for TOTK. Possibly just future proofing the foundations, sure, but I can't shake the feeling given the context elsewise that it might be future proofing for something coming soon.
 
Bosintang said:
So development kits were sent in 2020 and recalled 2 f.u.c.k.i.n.g years later. And of course, none of the ~800-1000 people in the know (12 developing studios) felt betrayed and complained that Nintendo were being total dicks.

And once again, I call total bullshit for this kind of unsubstantiated fairy tales. You are being lied to.
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Maybe recalled 2 years later because they were replaced by better, more current, ones. Attached a little note that says, "speak of this and you're done".
 
carbonaxiom said:
I don't disagree with the internal consistency of this argument, but it's important to note that many of those small weights on the balance are premised on the idea that the new hardware must release with some number of hardware-exclusive third party software at or close to the launch.
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I disagree, it's premised on the idea that there will be third party support, not necessarily exclusives.

carbonaxiom said:
If Nintendo intends to keep sales for the original Switch at a fairly elevated level despite a new hardware announcement, then one apparent way to do it is to release the new device with only cross gen titles and then slowly work the next gen titles in over the next fiscal year. Though I suppose you can also call this an uncharacteristically slow console transition, which could be seen as another weight in favor of a late 2024 release.
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I'm assuming a pretty conventional console launch. I think that the burden is on "unconventional launch" to show evidence/rationale. I'm not rock solid on 2024, as I said. But if I try to remove myself from following the thread as closely as I have, letting the legacy of prior assumptions go and look at the existing data - Nintendo is signaling that they're gonna keep the Switch around. Nintendo can afford to keep the Switch around. Hardware timing that we are aware of makes keeping the Switch around a completely conventional choice.

Or, to put it another way.

If I were to predict Switch 2 launch timing in 2016, right after the announcement video I would say "7 years from launch." If pressed further I might add "well, Switch kinda launched at a weird time, but I think that's just Wii U stuff. So maybe give or take 6 months in order to get it into a holiday window." In other words Holiday 2023 to Holiday 2024.

If you took that same YoungPuck and said "okay, I'm from the future. Switch is gonna be wildly successful. Does that change you mind?" I think he'd say "well, maybe a Pro to squeeze some more blood out of it? At the very least, you know, don't cut the gen short just to hit 2023 Holiday. Also, what's the first female President like?"

Then suppose you say "she works out great, listen, I wanna give you some more future vision. What if I told you the Switch took two years to make from the chip being available, and Switch 2's chip was ready fall 2022. Does that refine your thoughts?"

"Uh, 2024 sounds really good. What about her foreign policy, she's very experienced but I'm concerned about neoliberal imperialism?"

"Yeah, that's not really a worry, so, what if I said I was from mid 2023, and for some reason I really need you to give me your unbiased prediction on the timing of this thing. Ask what you like, I'll tell you what I know."

"At least the Court's safe, you know. That's my biggest worry. Uh, I guess, how are the leaks? What's the industry chatter?"

"Yeah, it's pretty awful"

"Are you referring to the Supreme Court or are we still talking about video games?"

"Pretty silent, no leaks, fake or otherwise, except for some possible factory stuff that says Nintendo is dilly-dallying?"

"Hillary wins, right? Like, it's the end of her second term for you, right?"

"NEXT ELECTION'S GONNA BE WILD, HUH? ANYWAY, 2023 OR 2024?"

"2024 IF THE WORLD DOESN'T END, FUCK"

"BUDDY, I'M HERE TO TELL YOU, THE WORLD ENDING ISN'T ACTUALLY GONNA STOP NINTENDO. ALSO, YOU SHOULD PROBABLY BUY THAT BIDET AND START WEANING YOURSELF OFF OF TOILET PAPER SOONER RATHER THAN LATER"

I guess what I'm saying is, if I check my priors, Holiday 2024 is the default, and the fact that Nintendo could do this holiday isn't enough to make me think they will.
 
oldpuck said:
I disagree, it's premised on the idea that there will be third party support, not necessarily exclusives.



I'm assuming a pretty conventional console launch. I think that the burden is on "unconventional launch" to show evidence/rationale. I'm not rock solid on 2024, as I said. But if I try to remove myself from following the thread as closely as I have, letting the legacy of prior assumptions go and look at the existing data - Nintendo is signaling that they're gonna keep the Switch around. Nintendo can afford to keep the Switch around. Hardware timing that we are aware of makes keeping the Switch around a completely conventional choice.

Or, to put it another way.

If I were to predict Switch 2 launch timing in 2016, right after the announcement video I would say "7 years from launch." If pressed further I might add "well, Switch kinda launched at a weird time, but I think that's just Wii U stuff. So maybe give or take 6 months in order to get it into a holiday window." In other words Holiday 2023 to Holiday 2024.

If you took that same YoungPuck and said "okay, I'm from the future. Switch is gonna be wildly successful. Does that change you mind?" I think he'd say "well, maybe a Pro to squeeze some more blood out of it? At the very least, you know, don't cut the gen short just to hit 2023 Holiday. Also, what's the first female President like?"

Then suppose you say "she works out great, listen, I wanna give you some more future vision. What if I told you the Switch took two years to make from the chip being available, and Switch 2's chip was ready fall 2022. Does that refine your thoughts?"

"Uh, 2024 sounds really good. What about her foreign policy, she's very experienced but I'm concerned about neoliberal imperialism?"

"Yeah, that's not really a worry, so, what if I said I was from mid 2023, and for some reason I really need you to give me your unbiased prediction on the timing of this thing. Ask what you like, I'll tell you what I know."

"At least the Court's safe, you know. That's my biggest worry. Uh, I guess, how are the leaks? What's the industry chatter?"

"Yeah, it's pretty awful"

"Are you referring to the Supreme Court or are we still talking about video games?"

"Pretty silent, no leaks, fake or otherwise, except for some possible factory stuff that says Nintendo is dilly-dallying?"

"Hillary wins, right? Like, it's the end of her second term for you, right?"

"NEXT ELECTION'S GONNA BE WILD, HUH? ANYWAY, 2023 OR 2024?"

"2024 IF THE WORLD DOESN'T END, FUCK"

"BUDDY, I'M HERE TO TELL YOU, THE WORLD ENDING ISN'T ACTUALLY GONNA STOP NINTENDO. ALSO, YOU SHOULD PROBABLY BUY THAT BIDET AND START WEANING YOURSELF OFF OF TOILET PAPER SOONER RATHER THAN LATER"

I guess what I'm saying is, if I check my priors, Holiday 2024 is the default, and the fact that Nintendo could do this holiday isn't enough to make me think they will.
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Buddy. Are you doing OK? I don't mean that in a mean way, just. This reads. In a concerning way. You good? Hope this thread isn't doing your mental health in. I know I've had to take a few breaks from here for my own mental well-being.
 
I see we're in that part of the thread again. My favourite.


giphy.gif


There's no earthly way of knowing...
 
TomNookYankees said:
When Devs you're talking to were told to return development kits, were they given any indication as to what was being changed/added? (I assume anything more specific than a yes/no to this question would be under FrieNDA)
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They didn't relay any such information to me in regards to that matter.

I chatted with a dev contact a month or so ago about the recalled kit and they gave me their general thoughts on it -- but was all shared in confidence and under FrieNDA.
 
Would it be odd to say that I'm firmly sticking to 2023 mostly on the basis that nothing was stated on whether or not new hardware was coming soon or what? Because I still find that suspicious, when they should have said nothing was coming this fiscal year because they're seemingly so confident in moving 15 million units. Then again, we don't know if their forecast includes future hardware or if they're separate (despite what some news outlets would claim). I understand some of the points suggesting 2024 and oldpuck probably has the best argument supporting that year, but I can't help but wonder what exactly Nintendo is planning. Perhaps I'm overthinking it and Nintendo really did want TotK to have its spotlight (a misguided endeavor imo, as that title speaks for itself and nothing could really distract from it), maybe they are going to be bullish with riding the Switch out and they have the right quantity and quality of software, along with multimedia endeavors, like the Mario movie, to carry them until Drake is ready. It's just that lack of confirmation that's making me scratch my friggin head! Again, I could be overthinking it, since the questions this time around were rather sneaky and Furukawa had to give an equally sneaky answer, so I guess we'll have to wait once more. There's a chance that we're all reading our tea leaves wrong and things are more simple than they seem. Sorry for rambling, just needed to get that off of my chest.
 
TLZ said:
Maybe recalled 2 years later because they were replaced by better, more current, ones. Attached a little note that says, "speak of this and you're done".
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if there was any recall, this would be it, I think. I think people would be pissed if they had to do more work because things changed so dramatically that stuff has to be scrapped and rebuilt. that's something I think would be mentioned. the lack of it makes me believe that things are continuing as planned
 
D36 said:
Would it be odd to say that I'm firmly sticking to 2023 mostly on the basis that nothing was stated on whether or not new hardware was coming soon or what? Because I still find that suspicious, when they should have said nothing was coming this fiscal year because they're seemingly so confident in moving 15 million units. Then again, we don't know if their forecast includes future hardware or if they're separate (despite what some news outlets would claim). I understand some of the points suggesting 2024 and oldpuck probably has the best argument supporting that year, but I can't help but wonder what exactly Nintendo is planning. Perhaps I'm overthinking it and Nintendo really did want TotK to have its spotlight (a misguided endeavor imo, as that title speaks for itself and nothing could really distract from it), maybe they are going to be bullish with riding the Switch out and they have the right quantity and quality of software, along with multimedia endeavors, like the Mario movie, to carry them until Drake is ready. It's just that lack of confirmation that's making me scratch my friggin head! Again, I could be overthinking it, since the questions this time around were rather sneaky and Furukawa had to give an equally sneaky answer, so I guess we'll have to wait once more. There's a chance that we're all reading our tea leaves wrong and things are more simple than they seem. Sorry for rambling, just needed to get that off of my chest.
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Not overthinking really, just need a little



(though I will add that I think the way Nintendo handled TotK was flawless and I'm confident that their secret 2H is not because they're desperately trying to cobble together filler games to coast into '24)
 
oldpuck said:
I disagree, it's premised on the idea that there will be third party support, not necessarily exclusives.



I'm assuming a pretty conventional console launch. I think that the burden is on "unconventional launch" to show evidence/rationale. I'm not rock solid on 2024, as I said. But if I try to remove myself from following the thread as closely as I have, letting the legacy of prior assumptions go and look at the existing data - Nintendo is signaling that they're gonna keep the Switch around. Nintendo can afford to keep the Switch around. Hardware timing that we are aware of makes keeping the Switch around a completely conventional choice.

Or, to put it another way.

If I were to predict Switch 2 launch timing in 2016, right after the announcement video I would say "7 years from launch." If pressed further I might add "well, Switch kinda launched at a weird time, but I think that's just Wii U stuff. So maybe give or take 6 months in order to get it into a holiday window." In other words Holiday 2023 to Holiday 2024.

If you took that same YoungPuck and said "okay, I'm from the future. Switch is gonna be wildly successful. Does that change you mind?" I think he'd say "well, maybe a Pro to squeeze some more blood out of it? At the very least, you know, don't cut the gen short just to hit 2023 Holiday. Also, what's the first female President like?"

Then suppose you say "she works out great, listen, I wanna give you some more future vision. What if I told you the Switch took two years to make from the chip being available, and Switch 2's chip was ready fall 2022. Does that refine your thoughts?"

"Uh, 2024 sounds really good. What about her foreign policy, she's very experienced but I'm concerned about neoliberal imperialism?"

"Yeah, that's not really a worry, so, what if I said I was from mid 2023, and for some reason I really need you to give me your unbiased prediction on the timing of this thing. Ask what you like, I'll tell you what I know."

"At least the Court's safe, you know. That's my biggest worry. Uh, I guess, how are the leaks? What's the industry chatter?"

"Yeah, it's pretty awful"

"Are you referring to the Supreme Court or are we still talking about video games?"

"Pretty silent, no leaks, fake or otherwise, except for some possible factory stuff that says Nintendo is dilly-dallying?"

"Hillary wins, right? Like, it's the end of her second term for you, right?"

"NEXT ELECTION'S GONNA BE WILD, HUH? ANYWAY, 2023 OR 2024?"

"2024 IF THE WORLD DOESN'T END, FUCK"

"BUDDY, I'M HERE TO TELL YOU, THE WORLD ENDING ISN'T ACTUALLY GONNA STOP NINTENDO. ALSO, YOU SHOULD PROBABLY BUY THAT BIDET AND START WEANING YOURSELF OFF OF TOILET PAPER SOONER RATHER THAN LATER"

I guess what I'm saying is, if I check my priors, Holiday 2024 is the default, and the fact that Nintendo could do his holiday isn't enough to make me think they will.
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I might be stupid, but I fail to see how this supports a 2024 outside of the chip talk? I'm still not sure on the part about the leaks. Kinda 50/50.
Speaking of leaks, did the PS5, Xbox Series, or their predecessors have any substantial and legit leaks before launch? Because I think we can get a better feel on the situation.
 
oldpuck said:
I disagree, it's premised on the idea that there will be third party support, not necessarily exclusives.
Click to expand...
You're right here, support is more accurate than just exclusives in terms of being a premise for the argument. I still don't think the hardware release necessarily has to be timed along with any third party support, but that thought definitely stands on the side that has the burden of proof, all other things being equal.

Speaking of,
I'm assuming a pretty conventional console launch. I think that the burden is on "unconventional launch" to show evidence/rationale. I'm not rock solid on 2024, as I said. But if I try to remove myself from following the thread as closely as I have, letting the legacy of prior assumptions go and look at the existing data - Nintendo is signaling that they're gonna keep the Switch around. Nintendo can afford to keep the Switch around. Hardware timing that we are aware of makes keeping the Switch around a completely conventional choice.

Or, to put it another way.

If I were to predict Switch 2 launch timing in 2016, right after the announcement video I would say "7 years from launch." If pressed further I might add "well, Switch kinda launched at a weird time, but I think that's just Wii U stuff. So maybe give or take 6 months in order to get it into a holiday window." In other words Holiday 2023 to Holiday 2024.

If you took that same YoungPuck and said "okay, I'm from the future. Switch is gonna be wildly successful. Does that change you mind?" I think he'd say "well, maybe a Pro to squeeze some more blood out of it? At the very least, you know, don't cut the gen short just to hit 2023 Holiday. Also, what's the first female President like?"

Then suppose you say "she works out great, listen, I wanna give you some more future vision. What if I told you the Switch took two years to make from the chip being available, and Switch 2's chip was ready fall 2022. Does that refine your thoughts?"

"Uh, 2024 sounds really good. What about her foreign policy, she's very experienced but I'm concerned about neoliberal imperialism?"

"Yeah, that's not really a worry, so, what if I said I was from mid 2023, and for some reason I really need you to give me your unbiased prediction on the timing of this thing. Ask what you like, I'll tell you what I know."

"At least the Court's safe, you know. That's my biggest worry. Uh, I guess, how are the leaks? What's the industry chatter?"

"Yeah, it's pretty awful"

"Are you referring to the Supreme Court or are we still talking about video games?"

"Pretty silent, no leaks, fake or otherwise, except for some possible factory stuff that says Nintendo is dilly-dallying?"

"Hillary wins, right? Like, it's the end of her second term for you, right?"

"NEXT ELECTION'S GONNA BE WILD, HUH? ANYWAY, 2023 OR 2024?"

"2024 IF THE WORLD DOESN'T END, FUCK"

"BUDDY, I'M HERE TO TELL YOU, THE WORLD ENDING ISN'T ACTUALLY GONNA STOP NINTENDO. ALSO, YOU SHOULD PROBABLY BUY THAT BIDET AND START WEANING YOURSELF OFF OF TOILET PAPER SOONER RATHER THAN LATER"

I guess what I'm saying is, if I check my priors, Holiday 2024 is the default, and the fact that Nintendo could do this holiday isn't enough to make me think they will.
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this is the winning argument for the case. I stand down in light of a Famiboards greatest hits post facing my direction.

I'll still be around to see the reactions to the Nintendo Switch Apocalypse announcement next month.
 
D36 said:
I might be stupid, but I fail to see how this supports a 2024 outside of the chip talk? I'm still not sure on the part about the leaks. Kinda 50/50.
Speaking of leaks, did the PS5, Xbox Series, or their predecessors have any substantial and legit leaks before launch? Because I think we can get a better feel on the situation.
Click to expand...
Ummm there was Ps5 chatter like very early on in the year it released. My memory is very foggy because Sony always leaks I feel. There's always rumors and reports like we've seen with this Ps5 pro model and slim.
 

Bosintang said:
As the rules of this forum encourage coward subposting about other contributors (and even about specific games), I refuse to answer this question without my lawyer.

I will just say that "dev kits have been sent out since 2020" was a huge argument supporting the narrative of the console releasing in 2022, and later in "H2 2023/H1 2023". This topic may sometimes have the memory of a squirrel, but the north remembers.

"Development kits were sent in 2020", "development kits were recalled 2 years later", and "no one complained that their work of 2 years was abruptly thrown to the bin" are a highly unlikely combination of factors.
And when someone is claiming something unlikely without substantiating it and having been repeatedly wrong on that specific topic, it's only fair to call bullshit. Which I did.
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You ever not angry about something?
 
You can probably make a chart that takes into account the likely range for the SE OLED right now based on the buying habits that Nintendo has shown throughout their charts since the OLED launched

For example, to use Nintendo’s numbers, the Switch saw a decrease of 54.7% from FY22 to FY23.

And the switch lite saw a decrease of 29.2%

Meanwhile the OLED saw an increase of 58.8% in its share. Clearly, that means that the OLED is being preferred regardless of the higher price to the more accessible Switch Lite and Switch (price wise)



Nintendo switch sold 6.14M units, OLED did 9.22M and the Lite did 2.62M units in FY23

While in FY22 it did 13.56M, OLED did 5.8M and the Lite did 3.7M units.
 
Giancarlo said:
too risky with Nintendo putting a lot of lawsuit behind your back, they can speculate Nintendo next hardware, but not show it
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The lawsuit likely wouldn't be on them, but whoever the original source was.
ILikeFeet said:
DF doesn't show anything. they just say what they can verify from their trusted sources. like they did with all the other leaks they had done
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They were pretty specific with the switch clock speeds when they got it from their inside source

DF does get digital copies ahead of time from Nintendo, so I wonder if things have changed between them and Nintendo since Switch was released. NDAs on game is a no brainier, but I wonder if Nintendo also gave NDAs for info on unreleased consoles to journalist gaming companies they have relationships with 🤔
 
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