I don't disagree with the internal consistency of this argument, but it's important to note that many of those small weights on the balance are premised on the idea that the new hardware must release with some number of hardware-exclusive third party software at or close to the launch.
I disagree, it's premised on the idea that there will be third party support, not necessarily exclusives.
If Nintendo intends to keep sales for the original Switch at a fairly elevated level despite a new hardware announcement, then one apparent way to do it is to release the new device with only cross gen titles and then slowly work the next gen titles in over the next fiscal year. Though I suppose you can also call this an uncharacteristically slow console transition, which could be seen as another weight in favor of a late 2024 release.
I'm assuming a pretty conventional console launch. I think that the burden is on "unconventional launch" to show evidence/rationale. I'm not rock solid on 2024, as I said. But if I try to remove myself from following the thread as closely as I have, letting the legacy of prior assumptions go and look at the existing data - Nintendo is signaling that they're gonna keep the Switch around. Nintendo can afford to keep the Switch around. Hardware timing that we are aware of makes keeping the Switch around a completely conventional choice.
Or, to put it another way.
If I were to predict Switch 2 launch timing in 2016, right after the announcement video I would say "7 years from launch." If pressed further I might add "well, Switch kinda launched at a weird time, but I think that's just Wii U stuff. So maybe give or take 6 months in order to get it into a holiday window." In other words Holiday 2023 to Holiday 2024.
If you took that same YoungPuck and said "okay, I'm from the future. Switch is gonna be wildly successful. Does that change you mind?" I think he'd say "well, maybe a Pro to squeeze some more blood out of it? At the very least, you know, don't cut the gen short just to hit 2023 Holiday. Also, what's the first female President like?"
Then suppose you say "she works out great, listen, I wanna give you some more future vision. What if I told you the Switch took two years to make from the chip being available, and Switch 2's chip was ready fall 2022. Does that refine your thoughts?"
"Uh, 2024 sounds really good. What about her foreign policy, she's very experienced but I'm concerned about neoliberal imperialism?"
"Yeah, that's not really a worry, so, what if I said I was from mid 2023, and for some reason I really need you to give me your unbiased prediction on the timing of this thing. Ask what you like, I'll tell you what I know."
"At least the Court's safe, you know. That's my biggest worry. Uh, I guess, how are the leaks? What's the industry chatter?"
"Yeah, it's pretty awful"
"Are you referring to the Supreme Court or are we still talking about video games?"
"Pretty silent, no leaks, fake or otherwise, except for some possible factory stuff that says Nintendo is dilly-dallying?"
"Hillary wins, right? Like, it's the end of her second term for you, right?"
"NEXT ELECTION'S GONNA BE WILD, HUH? ANYWAY, 2023 OR 2024?"
"2024 IF THE WORLD DOESN'T END, FUCK"
"BUDDY, I'M HERE TO TELL YOU, THE WORLD ENDING ISN'T ACTUALLY GONNA STOP NINTENDO. ALSO, YOU SHOULD PROBABLY BUY THAT BIDET AND START WEANING YOURSELF OFF OF TOILET PAPER SOONER RATHER THAN LATER"
I guess what I'm saying is, if I check my priors, Holiday 2024 is the default, and the fact that Nintendo
could do this holiday isn't enough to make me think they will.