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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (New Staff Post, Please read)

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Hosermess said:
Eh, banning someone for being repetitive and annoying is kind of a slippery slope even if they only wanted to speculate on proven facts lol
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They were banned (and threadbanned) for their behavior in another thread. I'm sure they'll be back here policing things in a week.
 
RennanNT said:
Before someone connect this this to new hardware entering mass production... Game cards uses Macronix ROM chips and TotK launches this quarter.
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Yup. Just posted because its tangentially related due to Macronix being a long-time partner of Nintendo.
 
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Hosermess said:
Eh, banning someone for being repetitive and annoying is kind of a slippery slope even if they only wanted to speculate on proven facts lol
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They weren't banned for their posts in this thread, it's because of things they said in another thread. You can look through their posts, if you're curious.
It's only a week ban as well so they'll be back.
 
Ghostsonplanets said:
From Celine, on InstallBase/IB:

www.taipeitimes.com

Macronix slides into red due to inventory losses - Taipei Times

Bringing Taiwan to the World and the World to Taiwan
www.taipeitimes.com www.taipeitimes.com
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They'll have a lot of ToTK game cards to supply chips for, at least.

TSR3 said:
I think this comment on the last page is mostly true ...

... the only rider I'd add to that is if most of those 80% become 4K TV owners, and start to think that the image quality on their new screens when docked looks a bit rubbish. Also if friends and family are now easily able to get PS5s to show off with.
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The same was true for the PS4, though. The average FIFA or CoD player didn't care about 4K or fancier graphics (they were hardly buying the PS4 Pro in massive quantities), and would have happily kept playing on the PS4.

The reason new console generations come along isn't because players become desperate for better graphical fidelity, it's because console manufacturers want to keep making money. Hardware sales tail off towards the end of the generation as a console hits its saturation point, and software sales naturally follow as owners gradually stop using the console and move on to other things. That may have nothing to do with the technical capabilities of the console, it's just a general decline of interest that's inevitable over the lifetime of ownership of any product.

So, to prevent Console Manufacturing Corp's hardware and software sales from dropping gradually to zero, leaving them unprofitable, they have to do something to spur sales, and that thing is release a new generation of hardware. Selling people new hardware will lead to renewed interest in software, which will lead to more profits. Of course you want people to buy New Console when many of them already own Old Console, which means you have to convince them that the incredible New Console is much better than that crummy Old Console they have sitting under their TV.

The standard way of doing this (at least for Sony and MS) is to make New Console more powerful than Old Console. Over the course of the generation technology improves, so giving New Console better specs than Old Console is something you can do basically for free (in the sense of being able to offer more performance for a similar price). It's also easy to advertise, just compare the big numbers on New Console to the puny small numbers on Old Console. It's much easier to sell people on a quantitative difference than a qualitative one. Or better yet, just keep saying that the quantitative difference is a qualitative one, even though gameplay is basically unchanged since Really Old Console.

From Nintendo's point of view, Old Console's hardware sales, while relatively healthy for its age, have started an irreversible decline as it's hit market saturation. Software sales have stayed high thus far, but will also inevitably decline. So for Nintendo, the question is at what point in that decline do they need to introduce New Console to prevent profits from declining too far? Or, more accurately, when did they predict they would need to introduce New Console, given the project to ensure both hardware and software are ready for New Console's launch would have had to be started several years beforehand?

I'm also curious if Nintendo will use the bigger numbers approach to try to convince players to move to New Console. Historically they've taken the qualitative approach to selling new hardware, with both successes and failures, but this time it looks like we're getting a New Console that doesn't differ that much qualitatively from Old Console, but is a big improvement quantitatively. Absolute numbers probably wouldn't put them in the best light next to power-guzzling stationary consoles, but relative numbers like "X times more powerful than Old Console" may be necessary to convince players that it's worth switching over.
 
robertman2 said:
Ban's still ridiculous
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If you don't want to catch a ban, don't imply that other posters are mentally ill when getting into a debate over...corporate mergers?

I mean, don't imply that for any reason, but if you're going to fall on your sword, the Microsoft/Activision thread is a weird place to choose.
 
Defending albiest behavior is not acceptable. Please be more mindful going forward. -Josh5890, xghost777, MondoMega
kvetcha said:
If you don't want to catch a ban, don't imply that other posters are mentally ill when getting into a debate over...corporate mergers?

I mean, don't imply that for any reason, but if you're going to fall on your sword, Microsoft/Activision is a weird place to choose.
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If you don't wanna be called delusional, don't argue that microsoft should cripple a major country because you aren't getting COD on gamepass anymore.
 
Came to realise today, that since the switch released I have usually had at least one pre order on a future third party or first party game active at any one point in time. Zelda TotK is my last remaining open order and there isn't anything I am really interested in that we know about coming this year.

Not saying it's a drought, but it's feeling a bit like an impending drought.
 
robertman2 said:
If you don't wanna be called delusional, don't argue that microsoft should cripple a major country because you aren't getting COD on gamepass anymore.
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There are simple ways to suggest someone's argument is misguided without invoking mental illness.
 
ShaunSwitch said:
Came to realise today, that since the switch released I have usually had at least one pre order on a future third party or first party game active at any one point in time. Zelda TotK is my last remaining open order and there isn't anything I am really interested in that we know about coming this year.

Not saying it's a drought, but it's feeling a bit like an impending drought.
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We're all just waiting on Nintendo to open the floodgates.
 
Thraktor said:
I'm also curious if Nintendo will use the bigger numbers approach to try to convince players to move to New Console. Historically they've taken the qualitative approach to selling new hardware, with both successes and failures, but this time it looks like we're getting a New Console that doesn't differ that much qualitatively from Old Console, but is a big improvement quantitatively. Absolute numbers probably wouldn't put them in the best light next to power-guzzling stationary consoles, but relative numbers like "X times more powerful than Old Console" may be necessary to convince players that it's worth switching over.
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So 'looks better on modern TVs' could be a qualitive approach for Nintendo to take?
 
robertman2 said:
If you don't wanna be called delusional, don't argue that microsoft should cripple a major country because you aren't getting COD on gamepass anymore.
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Here we go again, stay on topic, the member in question was honestly pretty back-handed and rude in most discussions on here. Going through their history, they were walking a thin line and seem more in this to cause trouble and stir the pot than actually be a nice member of the community contributing in a more thoughtful way than that.

There are better ways to use words in a more mature and balanced manner than coming across as rather arrogant and demeaning to others and their intelligence, to get your point across, to say the least.

I hope if they decide to come back after the week ban that they perhaps engage in discussion in a better way than what they were doing before and be less antagonistic in their approach to it otherwise it'll probably end up happening again sooner or later.
 
Thraktor said:
They'll have a lot of ToTK game cards to supply chips for, at least.



The same was true for the PS4, though. The average FIFA or CoD player didn't care about 4K or fancier graphics (they were hardly buying the PS4 Pro in massive quantities), and would have happily kept playing on the PS4.

The reason new console generations come along isn't because players become desperate for better graphical fidelity, it's because console manufacturers want to keep making money. Hardware sales tail off towards the end of the generation as a console hits its saturation point, and software sales naturally follow as owners gradually stop using the console and move on to other things. That may have nothing to do with the technical capabilities of the console, it's just a general decline of interest that's inevitable over the lifetime of ownership of any product.

So, to prevent Console Manufacturing Corp's hardware and software sales from dropping gradually to zero, leaving them unprofitable, they have to do something to spur sales, and that thing is release a new generation of hardware. Selling people new hardware will lead to renewed interest in software, which will lead to more profits. Of course you want people to buy New Console when many of them already own Old Console, which means you have to convince them that the incredible New Console is much better than that crummy Old Console they have sitting under their TV.

The standard way of doing this (at least for Sony and MS) is to make New Console more powerful than Old Console. Over the course of the generation technology improves, so giving New Console better specs than Old Console is something you can do basically for free (in the sense of being able to offer more performance for a similar price). It's also easy to advertise, just compare the big numbers on New Console to the puny small numbers on Old Console. It's much easier to sell people on a quantitative difference than a qualitative one. Or better yet, just keep saying that the quantitative difference is a qualitative one, even though gameplay is basically unchanged since Really Old Console.

From Nintendo's point of view, Old Console's hardware sales, while relatively healthy for its age, have started an irreversible decline as it's hit market saturation. Software sales have stayed high thus far, but will also inevitably decline. So for Nintendo, the question is at what point in that decline do they need to introduce New Console to prevent profits from declining too far? Or, more accurately, when did they predict they would need to introduce New Console, given the project to ensure both hardware and software are ready for New Console's launch would have had to be started several years beforehand?

I'm also curious if Nintendo will use the bigger numbers approach to try to convince players to move to New Console. Historically they've taken the qualitative approach to selling new hardware, with both successes and failures, but this time it looks like we're getting a New Console that doesn't differ that much qualitatively from Old Console, but is a big improvement quantitatively. Absolute numbers probably wouldn't put them in the best light next to power-guzzling stationary consoles, but relative numbers like "X times more powerful than Old Console" may be necessary to convince players that it's worth switching over.
Click to expand...
Something can be BOTH qualitative and quantitative, and computing power and hardware featureset are one of those things. They've "innovated" themselves into a corner with the Nintendo Switch design. Motion controls, VR, TV Mode, Handheld Mode, Tabletop Mode. There isn't much more that they CAN add. But more power and more features means more games are possible. New gameplay opportunities.

I think they're well positioned. "New experiences only possible on ADVANCE" and "Plays best on ADVANCE" are good marketing positions, while the raw grunt argument is very easily made for handheld mode, without sacrificing 4K in TV mode. They don't need to argue, say, that they're just as powerful or more powerful than their competitors. But that they're powerful ENOUGH despite being portable to play the same games.

If a developer wants their game on a handheld, and thus, to seriously compete in emerging and Japanese markets, they need to go with Nintendo Switch. The next console should make that possible for just about any game targeting the current generation of consoles.
 
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D36 said:
Just want to say that TotK has leaked, so be wary of spoilers.
Also, I wanted to ask: how many gigs of storage do we expect Drake to have? Personally, I doubt it'll be anywhere near 1TB, but it should definitely have a lot more than a measly 32 gigs.
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I expect 128GB of eMMC
 
D36 said:
Also, I wanted to ask: how many gigs of storage do we expect Drake to have? Personally, I doubt it'll be anywhere near 1TB, but it should definitely have a lot more than a measly 32 gigs.
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A quick glance shows prices for 128GB around $20. I can't find a citation for if the OG Switch 32gigs cost ~$20, but it's what I recall.
 
I know the likelihood of this is low, but with TotK leaking, what do you think, if anything could be gleamed from data mining it's files?

Do you think there could be any references to new hardware, or DLSS buried somewhere. Personally I don't think so as I fully expect that stuff to be patched in later of its cross gen.

With that being said, so you think some indication of new hardware could be data mined from software before an announcement?
 
D36 said:
Just want to say that TotK has leaked, so be wary of spoilers.
Also, I wanted to ask: how many gigs of storage do we expect Drake to have? Personally, I doubt it'll be anywhere near 1TB, but it should definitely have a lot more than a measly 32 gigs.
Click to expand...
I'm expecting 128GB.
 
ShaunSwitch said:
I know the likelihood of this is low, but with TotK leaking, what do you think, if anything could be gleamed from data mining it's files?

Do you think there could be any references to new hardware, or DLSS buried somewhere. Personally I don't think so as I fully expect that stuff to be patched in later of its cross gen.

With that being said, so you think some indication of new hardware could be data mined from software before an announcement?
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It already HAS been datamined, from the system's own operating system.

As for Zelda, I think it's possible but unlikely. It appears to use image reconstruction, there's a chance that there's some husk of DLSS references in there somewhere, but I wouldn't bet anything.
 
ShaunSwitch said:
I know the likelihood of this is low, but with TotK leaking, what do you think, if anything could be gleamed from data mining it's files?

Do you think there could be any references to new hardware, or DLSS buried somewhere. Personally I don't think so as I fully expect that stuff to be patched in later of its cross gen.

With that being said, so you think some indication of new hardware could be data mined from software before an announcement?
Click to expand...
No imo. If Nate was right something ever was cancelled/ rebranded/ delayed whatever, they would have had plenty of time to remove traces of that from the code.

If Nate was wrong and nothing was ever supposed to release h1 2023, there may not even exist a Drake patch at this time.
 
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
If the Switch 2 is released this year, it will be the shortest official announcement to reveal in video game console history other than the NES and Xbox One.

If it goes past May with no reveal, it will be the shortest ever other than the NES (which is hard to exactly know when it was announced)

So either Nintendo is strongly bucking history or it's not coming out for a while.
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Until recent history, it wasn't normal for software to be announced and then released a few months later, or the even more extreme scenarios like Metroid Prime Remastered getting announced and released on the same day. I think it is fair to say that Nintendo has been trending in the shorter reveal to release timeframe compared to the past. So when you combine the fact that Nintendo has shifted towards this new way of announcing and releasing in a tighter window, alongside the fact that their biggest software release in years got delayed into May of this year, it makes senses that they would give Zelda TotK some breathing room to shine its brightest before announcing new hardware.

If we are to assume that Redacted gets announced in June alongside the second half lineup of software and releases in November, the first few months the new hardware will be sold out by the hardcore Nintendo fans regardless, these are people who visit gaming sites and YouTube channels regularly, so doing a bunch of marketing that is focused on the average consumer a long time in advance is pointless, they wont be able to go into the store and buy one until months after release. By announcing in June, we are really taking about a 8-12 month lead up till Nintendo is capable of supplying the general consumer with new consoles. In my opinion, this only helps prevent a lot of consumer frustration from learning of a new Nintendo Switch model, but being unable to buy one for months on end. So in the end, Nintendo has been bucking history for quite a while now.
 
Goodtwin said:
Until recent history, it wasn't normal for software to be announced and then released a few months later, or the even more extreme scenarios like Metroid Prime Remastered getting announced and released on the same day. I think it is fair to say that Nintendo has been trending in the shorter reveal to release timeframe compared to the past. So when you combine the fact that Nintendo has shifted towards this new way of announcing and releasing in a tighter window, alongside the fact that their biggest software release in years got delayed into May of this year, it makes senses that they would give Zelda TotK some breathing room to shine its brightest before announcing new hardware.
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Eh I wouldn't call that a recent change though. Nintendo started that shift during the WiiU/3DS generation. Ultimately they've ended up somewhere in the middle. Some things get announced close to release, and some things get a year or two of runway(intentionally or unintentionally). Notably their biggest releases like Mario, Zelda, Animal Crossing, Pokemon, etc., generally seem to stick to the longer marketing cycles. I would expect a new generation of hardware to fall into that same category of importance.

Regardless I still feel pretty confident that we'll have a clear picture after the FY briefing next week.
 
I expect Nintendo to spend less on storage. So I agree we will likely see emmc again. Ideally we would get UFS 2.1 but tbh I don't think Nintendo will be willing to move to UFS cards and I don't think they are willing to put enough onboard storage to facilitate mandatory installs.

If they can access the full speeds of emmc it will still be a big step up over the HDDs of the last gen systems.
 
Gotdatmoneyy said:
I expect Nintendo to spend less on storage. So I agree we will likely see emmc again. Ideally we would get UFS 2.1 but tbh I don't think Nintendo will be willing to move to UFS cards and I don't think they are willing to put enough onboard storage to facilitate mandatory installs.

If they can access the full speeds of emmc it will still be a big step up over the HDDs of the last gen systems.
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I still don't see why mandatory installs would even be expected. the game cards will probably be upgraded to support higher bandwidth and if a download is needed, it's cheaper to not put in a card at all, but a download code
 
Concernt said:
Absolutely, it would weaken them. They're already coasting on remakes and delays.
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I mean, they had a very packed lineup last year and are releasing 3 new games in the first 5 months of this year. They are hardly "coasting"
Instro said:
Eh I wouldn't call that a recent change though. Nintendo started that shift during the WiiU/3DS generation. Ultimately they've ended up somewhere in the middle. Some things get announced close to release, and some things get a year or two of runway(intentionally or unintentionally). Notably their biggest releases like Mario, Zelda, Animal Crossing, Pokemon, etc., generally seem to stick to the longer marketing cycles. I would expect a new generation of hardware to fall into that same category of importance.

Regardless I still feel pretty confident that we'll have a clear picture after the FY briefing next week.
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Generally they do have short Marketing cycles, but in the last 2 years they have gone even shorter. Apart from Advance Wars (for obvious reasons) everything was announced and released in 10 months or less.
 
ILikeFeet said:
128GB emmc is still my expectation
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This is my expectation as well, but it really is in Nintendo's best interest to go with more now that half of their software sales are digital. I would have to believe 256GB of emmc doesn't cost much more than the 64GB costed Nintendo in 2021 for the OLED. Maybe $3-5 at wholesale cost? Easily recouped if this were to encourage more people to buy games digitally rather than physically. Its probably the one area where Nintendo taking the profit hit on the hardware would pay off in a big way over time. I know people are pretty comfortable with using Micro SD cards to expand storage, but for those people that historically buy physical games, this would also encourage them to purchase more DLC since they will have the storage for it.
 
ShaunSwitch said:
I know the likelihood of this is low, but with TotK leaking, what do you think, if anything could be gleamed from data mining it's files?

Do you think there could be any references to new hardware, or DLSS buried somewhere. Personally I don't think so as I fully expect that stuff to be patched in later of its cross gen.

With that being said, so you think some indication of new hardware could be data mined from software before an announcement?
Click to expand...
Dataminers are unlikely to find a Drake-enabled SDK in a game before Nintendo wants people to know about it. It's a pretty simple thing to check during certification. It's possible a config file could slip through, but likely any evidence found in a game will be very subtle and difficult to spot, if it happens at all.
 
RaymondBryce said:
I mean, they had a very packed lineup last year and are releasing 3 new games in the first 5 months of this year. They are hardly "coasting"

Generally they do have short Marketing cycles, but in the last 2 years they have gone even shorter. Apart from Advance Wars (for obvious reasons) everything was announced and released in 10 months or less.
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Even if you're just looking at the last couple years, Splatoon 3, and Arceus were still longer than that.
 
Also I forgot to mention this because someone said it and I ignored them because it was bizarre thing to even say, but a announcement in June and a release in November is not 3 months and it would not be the shortest “announcement to release in history where it is unprecedented” in which it supposedly rivals the NES.

It would be 5 months.

This isn’t far off from the switch.
 
Goodtwin said:
This is my expectation as well, but it really is in Nintendo's best interest to go with more now that half of their software sales are digital. I would have to believe 256GB of emmc doesn't cost much more than the 64GB costed Nintendo in 2021 for the OLED. Maybe $3-5 at wholesale cost? Easily recouped if this were to encourage more people to buy games digitally rather than physically. Its probably the one area where Nintendo taking the profit hit on the hardware would pay off in a big way over time. I know people are pretty comfortable with using Micro SD cards to expand storage, but for those people that historically buy physical games, this would also encourage them to purchase more DLC since they will have the storage for it.
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I wonder if licensing money from SD cards I'd lucrative enough to overcome that 🤔
 
D36 said:
Just want to say that TotK has leaked, so be wary of spoilers.
Also, I wanted to ask: how many gigs of storage do we expect Drake to have? Personally, I doubt it'll be anywhere near 1TB, but it should definitely have a lot more than a measly 32 gigs.
Click to expand...
I expect 128-256GB of eMMC. I want Nintendo to update their cartridges to faster speeds so we can have UFS 2.1/3.1.
 
ILikeFeet said:
I wonder if licensing money from SD cards I'd lucrative enough to overcome that 🤔
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I don't think it is but even if the come with a 512 internal storage most users will still buy a card and they potentially gain more from royalties of a higher digital split out of the gate.

I think they will go with more internal storage over less.
 
Instro said:
Even if you're just looking at the last couple years, Splatoon 3, and Arceus were still longer than that.
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I mean literally in the last 24 months. Splatoon 3, Arceus and Triangle Strategy were all in the Driect before that, which is why I choose the "in the last 2 years" time frame.

In the Feb 2021 they announced multiple games for the next calendar year. They did not do anything even remotely like that in Feb 2022 or Feb 2023.
 
ReddDreadtheLead said:
There’s always a benefit in this.
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Not really, even if objectively it would, it wouldn't genuinely give them enough of an edge to enable new gameplay opportunities. The existing speeds are still better than HDDs, and paired with fast decompression that could provide an effective doubling of speed if the CPU can keep up. There isn't a material benefit to it for Nintendo.
 
Ashee said:
So, how many from here will pre order the new gen with only the first trailer? Who will wait till the hard core fans full test it?(for performance or bugs)
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I wasnt gonna watch the last trailer, but I will. Just, right before the game release ahhahaha xD I’m hyper, but not overly hyped. That’s why I wanna Watch the trailer right before the game comes out: wanna keep my hype levels in check ahhahaha
 
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Concernt said:
Not really, even if objectively it would, it wouldn't genuinely give them enough of an edge to enable new gameplay opportunities. The existing speeds are still better than HDDs, and paired with fast decompression that could provide an effective doubling of speed if the CPU can keep up. There isn't a material benefit to it for Nintendo.
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You don’t know that, this is the same company that recycles something old into something new.

Doubting that they can come up with new ways to play that happens to take advantage of better speeds is already weird.
 
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