• Hey everyone, staff have documented a list of banned content and subject matter that we feel are not consistent with site values, and don't make sense to host discussion of on Famiboards. This list (and the relevant reasoning per item) is viewable here.

StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (New Staff Post, Please read)

Reader mode
Selarmor said:
Surely it's not that simple? There have been too many incredulous posts from knowledgeable members of the community for me to accept this as an answer.
Click to expand...
I was trying to directly answer the question I directly responded to - how could the SOC be ready but the console not come out? Because Nintendo is designing a console around the chip while the chip is being designed, and if there is a hangup in that process, the whole thing slows down.

The larger question of "what's going on with Drake" involves answering a lot of questions. Was it delayed, rethought? Or was is accelerated to replace a cancelled device? Lots of theories have cropped up to explain the data, and I'm not sure anyone here has the same set of assumptions on that narrative as any other person, so I was trying to pick out the one, clear, answerable question you asked and answer it.

TX1 gets talked about as an "off the shelf" chip, which is what I thought for a long time, but it's clear that Nintendo was involved in its design and had already planned on building Switch off it well before release. They planned on launching Switch 18 months after the first chips sampled, but had to delay (I think by 6 months? Someone correct me). They couldn't pull it off, the chip was way ahead of Switch's launch.

Nvidia had other customers in that case, not many, but some, as well as a sort of "flagship" device in the Shield TV. But just because Nvidia doesn't have those things now, doesn't mean that Nintendo is any less vulnerable to scheduling problems.

Would it be weird if the SOC were coming off the line, while Nintendo were engaged in a 12-18 month delay. Extremely! But we don't actually know that's happening. We know that would be normal behavior at this point in the process, that Nvidia could do that. But that doesn't mean that they are. If Nintendo is delayed, and Nintendo is the only customer, then Nvidia is gonna have to sit on it.

Whether or not that fits into any particular narrative is much more complicated, and considering how many blanks we have on the story so far, I don't think any two people fully agree on what are in those blanks. There is no cohesive story with all the data that we have which doesn't contain at least one highly unlikely thing. This thread often turns into spirited discussions over whose favorite unlikely thing is the likeliest unlikely thing.

So I'm just sidestepping that narrative question and responding directly. SOCs can come faster than the rest of the console process, and they have before.
 
oldpuck said:
I was trying to directly answer the question I directly responded to - how could the SOC be ready but the console not come out? Because Nintendo is designing a console around the chip while the chip is being designed, and if there is a hangup in that process, the whole thing slows down.

The larger question of "what's going on with Drake" involves answering a lot of questions. Was it delayed, rethought? Or was is accelerated to replace a cancelled device? Lots of theories have cropped up to explain the data, and I'm not sure anyone here has the same set of assumptions on that narrative as any other person, so I was trying to pick out the one, clear, answerable question you asked and answer it.

TX1 gets talked about as an "off the shelf" chip, which is what I thought for a long time, but it's clear that Nintendo was involved in its design and had already planned on building Switch off it well before release. They planned on launching Switch 18 months after the first chips sampled, but had to delay (I think by 6 months? Someone correct me). They couldn't pull it off, the chip was way ahead of Switch's launch.

Nvidia had other customers in that case, not many, but some, as well as a sort of "flagship" device in the Shield TV. But just because Nvidia doesn't have those things now, doesn't mean that Nintendo is any less vulnerable to scheduling problems.

Would it be weird if the SOC were coming off the line, while Nintendo were engaged in a 12-18 month delay. Extremely! But we don't actually know that's happening. We know that would be normal behavior at this point in the process, that Nvidia could do that. But that doesn't mean that they are. If Nintendo is delayed, and Nintendo is the only customer, then Nvidia is gonna have to sit on it.

Whether or not that fits into any particular narrative is much more complicated, and considering how many blanks we have on the story so far, I don't think any two people fully agree on what are in those blanks. There is no cohesive story with all the data that we have which doesn't contain at least one highly unlikely thing. This thread often turns into spirited discussions over whose favorite unlikely thing is the likeliest unlikely thing.

So I'm just sidestepping that narrative question and responding directly. SOCs can come faster than the rest of the console process, and they have before.
Click to expand...
Wait, what evidence is it of this? If any company had a say in its design, woudnt it be more likely to be Google as they used it in the pixel c long before Nintendo?
 
Hermii said:
So it is plausible that T239 could have moved from Samsung 8, to TSMC 5 and that the original space planned to be used by Nintendo will instead be used on other ampere products.
Click to expand...
I'm very much a layman so excuse me if this is off base, but I wonder if T239 moving from Samsung 8 to TSMC 5 could be interpreted by some (particularly on the dev side) as "the 2022/23 device was cancelled."

Like Drake was gonna be on one process but then shifted to another process, rendering devkits obsolete and thus recalled, and now is on track for a later release on a newer process. Might that look to some of the devs who were working with the kits as "well we were working on something for this new hardware but then the hardware went away?"

That would be one way to make sense of the "was it cancelled or just delayed" question.

Sorry again if this is a wildly off-base idea. 😅
 
chocolate_supra said:
I'm very much a layman so excuse me if this is off base, but I wonder if T239 moving from Samsung 8 to TSMC 5 could be interpreted by some (particularly on the dev side) as "the 2022/23 device was cancelled."

Like Drake was gonna be on one process but then shifted to another process, rendering devkits obsolete and thus recalled, and now is on track for a later release on a newer process. Might that look to some of the devs who were working with the kits as "well we were working on something for this new hardware but then the hardware went away?"

That would be one way to make sense of the "was it cancelled or just delayed" question.

Sorry again if this is a wildly off-base idea. 😅
Click to expand...
Im also a laymen, but the timing of last summer seems to late to make that decision. Also the Nvidia leak happened in March 2022 and is our source for T239 specs as we know them today. The assumption would have been that the 8nm soc if there ever was one, would have been a smaller chip with fewer SM etc.
 
NineTailSage said:
Hopefully nobody runs with posts like this as fact, a lot of the wording and phrases don't sound like speculation but as if it might be based on common knowledge about "Drake" and where its theoretical specs probably are.
Click to expand...
This is one of the reasons I try to avoid posts like this - there was an example of one of my posts getting game of telephoned into a Chinese leak and then coming back to this thread. I need to do math to explain it, but the math makes it all look "official."

These is some solid analysis here I feel good about, but the numbers being plugged into that analysis go from "rock solid" to "shaky" to "OldPuck literally made them up because the spreadsheet needs a term there for clock speed".

I try to say clearly what's what here - Ampere vs RDNA 2 performance has craploads of benchmarks, that is good data. The DLSS 2 performance numbers only have 2 bunch marks. That's limited data. The 768MHz clock speed is a made up number, which I specifically spell out as "if Drake had TX1's clocks" and doesn't even reflect a guess about what Nintendo will settle on. It's literally made up out of thin air, and the math around it exists, explicitly so you can see how changing that number changes the analysis.
 
0
I'm thinking once we get the next General Direct and we get the bulk of the 2023 software lineup, it will further help clue us in when it comes to Nintendo's future hardware roadmap. Since Nintendo is hoping to sell a lot of consoles this year despite a 25% decrease in sales and the looming recession which is beginning to pick up, I have to imagine Nintendo might have some other big killer titles coming this year beyond Zelda. Zelda won't move nowhere near that many units on it's own and the other known titles are small scale titles so it doesn't make sense why Nintendo is expecting so many unit sales.

I'm definitely excited to see the roadmap for the year. Hoping for some big exciting stuff. I suppose Nintendo could be banking on the Mario movie and new theme park to promote a major increase in Switch hardware sales but I just don't see that happening either.

Since new hardware is off the table this year seemingly, I feel I have to turn my focus strictly on software and hoping that we can at least some great games.
 
Kevin said:
I'm thinking once we get the next General Direct and we get the bulk of the 2023 software lineup, it will further help clue us in when it comes to Nintendo's future hardware roadmap. Since Nintendo is hoping to sell a lot of consoles this year despite a 25% decrease in sales and the looming recession which is beginning to pick up, I have to imagine Nintendo might have some other big killer titles coming this year beyond Zelda. Zelda won't move nowhere near that many units on it's own and the other known titles are small scale titles so it doesn't make sense why Nintendo is expecting so many unit sales.

I'm definitely excited to see the roadmap for the year. Hoping for some big exciting stuff. I suppose Nintendo could be banking on the Mario movie and new theme park to promote a major increase in Switch hardware sales but I just don't see that happening either.

Since new hardware is off the table this year seemingly, I feel I have to turn my focus strictly on software and hoping that we can at least some great games.
Click to expand...
Again, why is new hardware off the table this year?

If they show nothing of value, software wise, at some direct, but the reports of increased orders are true, that means that they expect something else to drive sales, I can hardly think of much doing that except for new hardware.

A 3D Mario game couldn't explain a 10% uptick in hardware sales this late in the lifespan, but a new generation absolutely could.
 
necrolipe said:
It's funny how some people get mad over users speculating about hardware in a SPECULATION THREAD
Can you imagine?
Click to expand...
I've seen a few posts on this subject. I think it's worth saying that locking in informed guesses and speculation and building speculation on top of that is a dangerous thing and people do get too locked into specific outcomes. We need to all keep an open mind. It's why I personally sometimes waffle back and forth and question received wisdom even if its just to reconfirm my confidence in a specific piece of information

That said this is a speculation thread. People should speculate.
 
Concernt said:
Again, why is new hardware off the table this year?

If they show nothing of value, software wise, at some direct, but the reports of increased orders are true, that means that they expect something else to drive sales, I can hardly think of much doing that except for new hardware.

A 3D Mario game couldn't explain a 10% uptick in hardware sales this late in the lifespan, but a new generation absolutely could.
Click to expand...

I think anything can happen. One thing I've learned is NEVER to rule anything out. My opinion in that we are looking at 2024/2025 timeline for new hardware but I'm not going to rule anything out. It could drop later tonight in a random 1am tweet for all I know lol.
 
Hermii said:
Wait, what evidence is it of this? If any company had a say in its design, woudnt it be more likely to be Google as they used it in the pixel c long before Nintendo?
Click to expand...
The gigaleak, which only tells the Nintendo side of the story, so how much Google was involved - or any other partner - is unclear. But Nintendo had 100% locked into a Tegra X1 based Switch design before the X1s were made. Nintendo also had an internal delay of 4 months, that obviously had nothing to do with the SOC, since it was showing up elsewhere.

Pixel C meanwhile was part of a doomed project inside Google which was cancelled, and the product we got was a Frankenstein pushed out the door in time for the holidays to recoup the sunk costs. The fact that they were first to market I don't think is a reflection of their relative importance to Nvidia.
 
Unfortunately, I still have errant daydreams about checking my phone to a deluge of messages about a new Switch announcement any day now, but I at last know in my heart that the moment has passed.
 
oldpuck said:
The gigaleak, which only tells the Nintendo side of the story, so how much Google was involved - or any other partner - is unclear. But Nintendo had 100% locked into a Tegra X1 based Switch design before the X1s were made. Nintendo also had an internal delay of 4 months, that obviously had nothing to do with the SOC, since it was showing up elsewhere.

Pixel C meanwhile was part of a doomed project inside Google which was cancelled, and the product we got was a Frankenstein pushed out the door in time for the holidays to recoup the sunk costs. The fact that they were first to market I don't think is a reflection of their relative importance to Nvidia.
Click to expand...
Nintendo is much more likely to participate in the planning of the SoC for its next console, than Google for a niche product as the Pixel line has always been.
 
0
Disorientator said:
It will be interesting to see if/how EU's proposed batteries regulation will affect the design of Switch's successor. (and potentially any systems after that, if Nintendo sticks with the same form-factor/concept)

One section of the legislation "requires batteries to be replaceable by end users (with some exemptions) in around 4 years from now", a directive that (I assume) affects Nintendo more than Sony and Microsoft. (being the only vendor with a battery-powered console on the market)
Click to expand...
"User replaceable" doesn't necessarily mean easy to replace. Many manufacturers deal with the right to repair and replaceable battery regulations by simply posting repair manuals online and allowing users to purchase parts and tools; see Apple and Samsung's self repair pages. So I'm not sure whether the regulations would have much impact, if any, on the Switch and Joy-Con designs.

Discostew said:
Wasn't that claim of getting them dirt cheap debunked? From what I understand, they made a deal before the chip even released. In fact, wasn't Nintendo negotiating with Nvidia on the 3DS but backed out because of power consumption? That one might have been just a rumor though.
Click to expand...
After the OLED Model is revealed, there was also a rumor claiming that the OLED panels were surplus parts originally intended for Audi. The "cheap Nintendo" meme is so deep-rooted, allowing urban legends like these to persist.
 
chocolate_supra said:
I'm very much a layman so excuse me if this is off base, but I wonder if T239 moving from Samsung 8 to TSMC 5 could be interpreted by some (particularly on the dev side) as "the 2022/23 device was cancelled."

Like Drake was gonna be on one process but then shifted to another process, rendering devkits obsolete and thus recalled, and now is on track for a later release on a newer process. Might that look to some of the devs who were working with the kits as "well we were working on something for this new hardware but then the hardware went away?"

That would be one way to make sense of the "was it cancelled or just delayed" question.

Sorry again if this is a wildly off-base idea. 😅
Click to expand...
Hermii said:
Im also a laymen, but the timing of last summer seems to late to make that decision. Also the Nvidia leak happened in March 2022 and is our source for T239 specs as we know them today. The assumption would have been that the 8nm soc if there ever was one, would have been a smaller chip with fewer SM etc.
Click to expand...
If Nintendo's concern behind shrinking the node was not lack of power, but physical size/battery life, then they wouldn't have to recall the original Drake devkits immediately.
Those devs would've kept working with the same power level in mind, then last summer those old devkits were recalled to be replaced with updated ones. Making some think "new" chip = true successor and the old device targeting early 2023 was cancelled.
So, I guess my point is the potential node shrink decision could've happened much earlier than we think. Maybe
 
.
oldpuck said:
So I'm just sidestepping that narrative question and responding directly. SOCs can come faster than the rest of the console process, and they have before.
Click to expand...

This makes sense, but it's still hard to reconcile the idea that 'something' was cancelled in favor of something else in any short timeframe. Just how realistic is it that a device was planned to be released in 2023, then 'cancelled' to pivot to a different thing in 2024?

Is it possible they were planning to actually have a "Switch Pro" style device in late 2022 or early 2023 using T239, but deemed it unnecessary or impractical (perhaps due to backwards compatibility challenges for instance), all the while planning on a somewhat more divergent 'successor' in 2024/2025 also using T239 but with new functionality?
 
oldpuck said:
The gigaleak, which only tells the Nintendo side of the story, so how much Google was involved - or any other partner - is unclear. But Nintendo had 100% locked into a Tegra X1 based Switch design before the X1s were made. Nintendo also had an internal delay of 4 months, that obviously had nothing to do with the SOC, since it was showing up elsewhere.

Pixel C meanwhile was part of a doomed project inside Google which was cancelled, and the product we got was a Frankenstein pushed out the door in time for the holidays to recoup the sunk costs. The fact that they were first to market I don't think is a reflection of their relative importance to Nvidia.
Click to expand...
But like I said, February 2014 was when Iwata made the comments about "adequately absorb the Wii U architecture" which we know now was about project Indy.
Sure they were simultaneously considering other options, but we know they hadn't 100% committed to Nvidia at that time. NX was announced in 2016 when the tx1 was finished.

Iwata on integrating handheld/console teams, next system will "absorb the Wii U architecture adequately", more

Satoru Iwata delivered some incredibly insightful comments as to what Nintendo has planned for its future hardware during an investor briefing Q&A last week. As many of you know, Nintendo combined its console and handheld teams in 2013. Thanks to “vast technological advances, it became possible...
nintendoeverything.com nintendoeverything.com
 
fwd-bwd said:
"User replaceable" doesn't necessarily mean easy to replace. Many manufacturers deal with the right to repair and replaceable battery regulations by simply posting repair manuals online and allowing users to purchase parts and tools; see Apple and Samsung's self repair pages. So I'm not sure whether the regulations would have much impact, if any, on the Switch and Joy-Con designs.
Click to expand...

I don't disagree, but EU seems to be determined to "overhaul EU rules on batteries and take into account technological developments and future challenges" (source is this European Parliament press release from Dec 9th, 2022), so IMO we can't be certain to what extent the new legislation will affect the landscape in 3-5 years.

And the phrase "easier to remove" (i.e. the batteries), as in easier from what we have now, is literally used 2-3 times in that press release.

Portable batteries in appliances will be easier to replace
Click to expand...

Batteries to be easier to remove and replace, consumers better informed
Click to expand...

...portable batteries in appliances must be designed so that consumers can easily remove and replace them themselves.
Click to expand...

I guess only time will tell.
 
Last edited:
Machrider said:
I mean wouldn't this stand out like a giant reason for Nintendo to prefer to wait for a 5nm chip?
Click to expand...
To many people in this thread, 8nm hasn't made sense ever since we learned about 12SM. There's been theories about 6sm disabled in handheld mode etc to try and reconcile it.
 
0
Serif said:
Insightful. This is a speculation thread. If there were actual news it'd be its own topic.
Click to expand...
Who are we kidding, though, every new game could be discussed here and what new hardware could do for it. Every official piece of new or patent out of Nintendo will land here and be discussed, even if it's the Drake Switch being ANNOUNCED with Jensen jumping onto stage and explaining the model number, power consumption and node, while there will be an official thread for it I'm sure, I know I personally will be jumping up and down right here about it. After that, more speculation, what does the motherboard look like? What model number is the fan? Is the charger different? What's the HDR bit depth?

 
Kevin said:
I think anything can happen. One thing I've learned is NEVER to rule anything out. My opinion in that we are looking at 2024/2025 timeline for new hardware but I'm not going to rule anything out. It could drop later tonight in a random 1am tweet for all I know lol.
Click to expand...

I don't see any evidence for a launch OTHER than 2023, but I'm hardly going to chastise you for thinking otherwise.
 
Machrider said:
I mean wouldn't this stand out like a giant reason for Nintendo to prefer to wait for a 5nm chip?
Click to expand...
That wouldn't involve a wait, 5nm would have been possible in late 2022 if they wanted it, and it's definitely possible now, unless this device was on some other node then suddenly changed and everything had to be reconfigured, but I don't think Nvidia would be dumb enough to let that happen. Chances are if it's 5nm, it was always meant to be 5nm, 12SM just doesn't make sense on an 8nm portable.
 
Concernt said:
I don't see any evidence for a launch OTHER than 2023, but I'm hardly going to chastise you for thinking otherwise.
Click to expand...

Yeah it was never a personal attack. I mean no disrespect to you or anyone else who thinks the system is still launching in 2023. I just feel like the overwhelming majority of people are now on Team 2024 or later. Most news outlets are saying late 2024 or 2025 now. Nate, MVG, John, etc are all 2024-2025 now. I personally just think the 2023 dream is basically completely dead now. It's nothing personal. In fact I wish/hope you are right and Nintendo casually announces a Switch 2 for release with Zelda but we already know we are getting that TOTK Oled bundle so it's just not looking good for Team 2023 at all. Literally at all.
 
How realistic is the scenario of Nvidia working on T239 silicon and Linux Tegra commits throughout 2022 and then in 2023 there being no T239 product whatsoever? No Switch, no Shield TV, no vehicle infotainment unit, no secret Magic Leap 3? Would all of that work have just been for internal development, or could that mid 2022 work still be on track for an early 2024 product?
 
Kevin said:
Yeah it was never a personal attack. I mean no disrespect to you or anyone else who thinks the system is still launching in 2023. I just feel like the overwhelming majority of people are now on Team 2024 or later. Most news outlets are saying late 2024 or 2025 now. Nate, MVG, John, etc are all 2024-2025 now. I personally just think the 2023 dream is basically completely dead now. It's nothing personal. In fact I wish/hope you are right and Nintendo casually announces a Switch 2 for release with Zelda but we already know we are getting that TOTK Oled bundle so it's just not looking good for Team 2023 at all. Literally at all.
Click to expand...
Let's not speak in absolutes. From a "literal" perspective, it doesn't look bad at ALL for "Team 2023", based on the facts.
 
Serif said:
How realistic is the scenario of Nvidia working on Linux Tegra and T239 silicon throughout 2022 and then in 2023 there being no T239 product whatsoever? No Switch, no Shield TV, no vehicle infotainment unit, no secret Magic Leap 3?
Click to expand...
Low, which is why I'm still Team '23 until a mythical Shield TV Drake appears on shelves at least.
 
Last edited:
0
Concernt said:
Let's not speak in absolutes. From a "literal" perspective, it doesn't look bad at ALL for "Team 2023", based on the facts.
Click to expand...

The facts look very different to me. That's all I'm saying. I'm witnessed years of console launches and pre-hype cycles and on my end the evidence just isn't there anymore for a 2023 launch. I would love to be wrong as everyone here knows how much a want new hardware lol.
 
Kevin said:
Yeah it was never a personal attack. I mean no disrespect to you or anyone else who thinks the system is still launching in 2023. I just feel like the overwhelming majority of people are now on Team 2024 or later. Most news outlets are saying late 2024 or 2025 now. Nate, MVG, John, etc are all 2024-2025 now. I personally just think the 2023 dream is basically completely dead now. It's nothing personal. In fact I wish/hope you are right and Nintendo casually announces a Switch 2 for release with Zelda but we already know we are getting that TOTK Oled bundle so it's just not looking good for Team 2023 at all. Literally at all.
Click to expand...

Most are moving on because it’s hard to stay optimistic in light of John and Nate saying ‘something for 2023 cancelled’.

That said, we don’t “know” anything. We don’t know that the TotK OLED is real, even if it looks well made. Not a single journalist I’ve seen has made a claim that it’s legitimate. And we don’t know if there’s actually been any cancellation if my read on Nate’s reporting is correct. MVG speculating that this could be routine and they’ll just be getting a “phase 2” kit does not sound like any sort of cancellation, yet Nate and John didn’t dismiss the idea. “Cancellation” could be a sensible interpretation of events, but not a certainty (?), and could be the outcome of sources being a little too far removed from the specifics.

The idea that Nintendo is supposedly projecting higher sales this year than last is extremely odd, and at least indicates there’s a major part of the plan that is not yet known. Some speculate it’s just a price cut and Zelda, and some (myself included) don’t think that’d suffice.
 
karmitt said:
Most are moving on because it’s hard to stay optimistic in light of John and Nate saying ‘something for 2023 cancelled’.

That said, we don’t “know” anything. We don’t know that the TotK OLED is real, even if it looks well made. Not a single journalist I’ve seen has made a claim that it’s legitimate. And we don’t know if there’s actually been any cancellation if my read on Nate’s reporting is correct. MVG speculating that this could be routine and they’ll just be getting a “phase 2” kit does not sound like any sort of cancellation, yet Nate and John didn’t dismiss the idea. “Cancellation” could be a sensible interpretation of events, but not a certainty (?), and could be the outcome of sources being a little too far removed from the specifics.

The idea that Nintendo is supposedly projecting higher sales this year than last is extremely odd, and at least indicates there’s a major part of the plan that is not yet known. Some speculate it’s just a price cut and Zelda, and some (myself included) don’t think that’d suffice.
Click to expand...

That's fine and all and I agree with most of your points. I never passed off my 2024/2025 prediction as facts though. It's all speculation and I try my best to make that known. I don't know anything in terms of Nintendo's plans so everything should be taken as speculation no matter the viewpoints. None of us know (unless their is a hidden Nintendo person here). ;)
 
Kevin said:
The facts look very different to me. That's all I'm saying. I'm witnessed years of console launches and pre-hype cycles and on my end the evidence just isn't there anymore for a 2023 launch. I would love to be wrong as everyone here knows how much a want new hardware lol.
Click to expand...
I mean there's no factual basis to point to a launch any later than 2023.

Rumours, murmurs, etc. aren't "facts", remember.
 
Concernt said:
I mean there's no factual basis to point to a launch any later than 2023.

Rumours, murmurs, etc. aren't "facts", remember.
Click to expand...

I just hope we start getting a clearer picture soon with what is going on with new hardware, Tears of the Kingdom, etc. We just know so little about Nintendo in 2023 I feel. It's really hard to put together a picture of what this year will look like from the perspective of a Nintendo fan.
 
Kevin said:
That's fine and all and I agree with most of your points. I never passed off my 2024/2025 prediction as facts though. It's all speculation and I try my best to make that known. I don't know anything in terms of Nintendo's plans so everything should be taken as speculation no matter the viewpoints. None of us know (unless their is a hidden Nintendo person here). ;)
Click to expand...

I think the point @Concernt is making is that if we remove the rumors such as the Tears OLED, and Nate’s / John’s insights and speculation, and just look at the genuine facts about T239, 2023 isn’t off the table at all.

T239 per a number of people should be ready for production or in production, and it’s not based on hearsay, but rather insights from the Nvidia hack, Linux commits, and LinkedIn diving, and an understanding of typical hardware timelines.

I don’t know where I sit personally. I’m kind of burnt out on being hopeful. At this point I’m mostly just curious on what Nintendo has planned for this year, and whether Zelda is going to actually impress me.
 
karmitt said:
I think the point @Concernt is making is that if we remove the rumors such as the Tears OLED, and Nate’s / John’s insights and speculation, and just look at the genuine facts about T239, 2023 isn’t off the table at all.

T239 per a number of people should be ready for production or in production, and it’s not based on hearsay, but rather insights from the Nvidia hack, Linux commits, and LinkedIn diving, and an understanding of typical hardware timelines.

I don’t know where I sit personally. I’m kind of burnt out on being hopeful. At this point I’m mostly just curious on what Nintendo has planned for this year, and whether Zelda is going to actually impress me.
Click to expand...

There was a point where I thought it was actually coming in 2020 but because of the pandemic I was understanding that maybe a year delay and releasing it in 2021 made sense. Then 2022 came and surely I thought for sure that was the year. Then that year came and gone. So yeah I've very jaded when it comes to any hopes of new hardware at this point. I am a man that is extremely burned out from waiting and waiting. I don't know when Switch 2 will come out. It's basically the story of cry wolf where the child cries wolf so many times that the villagers just give up keeping an eye out and then one day the wolf actually shows up and the village is woefully unprepared. Switch 2 is a system that will eventually come out. That's basically my only guess.
 
Disorientator said:
I don't disagree, but EU seems to be determined to "overhaul EU rules on batteries and take into account technological developments and future challenges" (source is this European Parliament press release from Dec 9th, 2022), so IMO we can't be certain to what extent the new legislation will affect the landscape in 3-5 years.

And the phrase "easier to remove" (i.e. the batteries), as in easier from what we have now, is literally used 2-3 times in that press release.
Click to expand...
I also don't disagree. I just suspect the army of lawyers employed by tech giants will argue that having the official instruction, parts, and tools is already "easier" for consumers than searching for 3rd party solutions. As the EC transcript has shown, the corporate lawyers may also hit hard on the safety concerns. Lithium batteries these days are highly potent. Making them very easy to replace will quite possibly lead to more unsafe counterfeits, water damages, and all sorts of user shenanigans. Lithium fire could become a common occurrance, so much so that airlines might start requiring passengers to remove all lithium batteries from devices before boarding. So I am all for user replaceability, but making it very easy could have unintended consequences.
 
fwd-bwd said:
I also don't disagree. I just suspect the army of lawyers employed by tech giants will argue that having the official instruction, parts, and tools is already "easier" for consumers than searching for 3rd party solutions. As the EC transcript has shown, the corporate lawyers may also hit hard on the safety concerns. Lithium batteries these days are highly potent. Making them very easy to replace will quite possibly lead to more unsafe counterfeits, water damages, and all sorts of user shenanigans. Lithium fire could become a common occurrance, so much so that airlines might start requiring passengers to remove all lithium batteries from devices before boarding. So I am all for user replaceability, but making it very easy could have unintended consequences.
Click to expand...

(y)
 
0
I feel like as soon as I buy a Switch OLED, Nintendo is going to announce... so I don't want to buy that OLED, so they aren't announcing. :unsure:
 
Kise Ryota said:
But wasn't the Tegra x1 on the switch the only Nvidia product on the 20nm node? Couldn't we see something like that happen again?
Click to expand...
Nvidia planned to use TSMC 20 nm for the Geforce 800 and 900 series in 2014: https://videocardz.com/38693/nvidia-sticks-with-tsmc-for-20nm-maxwell-geforce-800-series

20 nm was described as "essentially worthless" so Nvidia ended up reusing TSMC 28 nm instead for these GPUs: https://www.extremetech.com/computi...y-with-tsmc-claims-22nm-essentially-worthless

They still had to pay for the TSMC 20 nm supply that they had ordered so they gave Nintendo a deal to absorb that volume. There were other users of the Tegra X1 as well including the Pixel C tablet and some Tesla vehicles.
 
ShaunSwitch said:
So this is pure speculation, but if the console was delayed due to inability to produce the hardware, yet the SoC appears to be done, which component do people think is the most likely candidate?

Just spitballing here as I am not very clued up on where the shortages are, but just want to go over some possibilities.

<snip>

Cartridges - This one I can see, Nintendo is completely dependant on Macronix and switch 64GB Cart availability suffered a two year delay already. Its proprietry tech and there aren't many companies in the world who can produce it. If switch 2 needed new cart tech I could see this being cause for a delay.

External Media - If Nintendo decided to enforce the use of eUFS card or SD Express and partners had issues ramping up volume then I can see this being an issue too but less likely than cart issues. I can see Nintendo enforcing faster external media if they opt for a small amount of internal storage and they want to keep a consistent user experience across formats. Especially with large third party games likely exceeding most cart sizes.

I think out of all of these I'd go with cart issues causing a delay. Do I think it's likely a production bottle neck caused a delay vs some other shift in decision making? I'm not sure. I am still of the opinion that if anything disrupted plans its the collapsing crypto markets dropping nvidia GPU demand. An early pivot and decision to design drake on TSMC 4N to use up that capacity could have happened in early 2022 when crypto began to crash and Russia invaded Ukraine driving up global energy prices making mining no longer profitable. This also would lineup with the apparent cancellation timeline and dev kits being recalled in June 2022.
Click to expand...
That reminds me, I'm rather curious on when we'll start seeing UFS Card 3.0. JEDEC published the standard back in December 2020.

---

I'm straying further away from Nintendo with this question:
Have any details been published yet about the CAMM* standard? In particular, I'm curious about the width. I did see comments about how with it, an OEM can't cheap out with 'single channel'/64-bit, but I'm curious if that allows for going beyond 128-bit.
And if you've been following my random potential non-Nintendo dedicated game system tangents, you can probably guess that my mind is wandering off in the direction of laptops with 192 or 256-bit memory bus width :p


*in a nutshell, what's CAMM? Compression Attached Memory Module; it's the upcoming standard to replace SO-DIMM* in laptops
** what's SO-DIMM? Small-Outline DIMM***; smaller DIMMs for laptops. Apparently they need replacing as they seem to be hitting a wall at 6400 MT/s DDR5... also, theoretically CAMM allows for higher densities (read: MOAR RAM)
***what's DIMM? Dual In-line Memory Module; you know those RAM sticks that go into your desktop? Those are DIMMs.
 
0
ILikeFeet said:
Once again, there's no real reason to use Drake for this since Orin exists. If it's meant to be cheap, it competes with other micro pcs that are x86 and are more powerful
Click to expand...
For the same reason it’s not well-suited for gaming, A78AE CPUs are not well-suited for general purpose consumer computing.
Unlike most other micro PCs, because Nvidia is the SoC maker, they have a better cost for assembly (paying cost instead of wholesale price for a chip and able to leverage binning of an existing product for another customer). For example: Jetson Nano (which Tom’s Hardware called the Raspberry Pi of AI) was sold at some sort of a profit for $99 in 2019. Meanwhile, a 2-core Celeron N3350 micro-PC with 4GB LPDDR3 RAM from Bee-Link will run you $119.

I think Nvidia has an opportunity to basically scoop up nearly all of binned Drake chips and compete with a far more capable SoC in the “cheap office micro PC” market at the VERY least, now that ARM Windows is a LOT better than it was when it started.

It’s not even an unprecedented occurrence, AMD used binned PS console chips similarly (and priced themselves out of a lot of customers at $400 a pop, methinks).
 
Terrell said:
For the same reason it’s not well-suited for gaming, A78AE CPUs are not well-suited for general purpose consumer computing.
Unlike most other micro PCs, because Nvidia is the SoC maker, they have a better cost for assembly (paying cost instead of wholesale price for a chip and able to leverage binning of an existing product for another customer). For example: Jetson Nano (which Tom’s Hardware called the Raspberry Pi of AI) was sold at some sort of a profit for $99 in 2019. Meanwhile, a 2-core Celeron N3350 micro-PC with 4GB LPDDR3 RAM from Bee-Link will run you $119.

I think Nvidia has an opportunity to basically scoop up nearly all of binned Drake chips and compete with a far more capable SoC in the “cheap office micro PC” market at the VERY least, now that ARM Windows is a LOT better than it was when it started.

It’s not even an unprecedented occurrence, AMD used binned PS console chips similarly (and priced themselves out of a lot of customers at $400 a pop, methinks).
Click to expand...
as far as I know, the A78AE is still an A78 but with extra functions.

the problem with the Nano and, if Drake makes it to market in a nintendo system, the binned T239 is that Nvidia won't make enough product to actually compete. the TX1s and probably Nanos as well were dump products, so I can't really come to the conclusion that these are serious entries to those markets. those binned playstation 5s SoCs, and Xbox Ones SoCs previously, are rare products because AMD just shat them out without any intention of actual usability. especially the XBO chip. that was only found in china after all
 
Reader mode
You must log in or register to reply here.
Please read this new, consolidated staff post before posting.

Furthermore, according to this follow-up post, all off-topic chat will be moderated.
Last edited by a moderator:


Back
Top Bottom