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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (New Staff Post, Please read)

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Raccoon said:
yeah, but that down year was better than PS4's best year

with software continuing to sell they could wait a loooooooong time
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I'm hoping for interesting announcements in the spring direct and at E3

There's always an outside chance new hardware is coming sooner rather than later afterall and we're just getting mixed signals.

That said, I'm just going to assume no hardware until 2025. The rollercoaster is too much.
 
Hush said:
But then what do they launch the Switch 2 with? You release Odyssey 2 now, then you will have the first real Switch 2 3D Mario at least 4-5 years later
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I agree, I'd forget about more big games post-ToTK and Prime 4. People won't want to wait full blown dev cycles to see the system squeezed.
 
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I don't get how people can look at the recent releases and still say that Nintendo is going to release some magical Switch 2 this year. It's a known fact that several games are getting DLC until the end of the year, and those are some pretty big titles. Late 2024/early 2025 always made the most sense. Like, y'all should have seen this coming lol
 
Well either way I'm gonna have to buy some kind of Switch model, either that or I lose my save data backup from my banned-since-October Switch.

Please don't make me have to renew my GeForce Now subscription, Nintendo.
 
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Cackletta5 said:
As sad as it sounds, this could totally be true. Let’s imagine that after Zelda, they’ll launch Prime Remake, maybe a Pokémon spin off/remake, some of these HD Remasters and 2D Mario. None of these are “big games” but this could easily be the line-up, along with Pikmin 4, till 2024/2025. Software droughts are not unprecedented. They happened with Nintendo, Sony and Microsoft all the time and Nintendo doesn’t care about that maybe one or two years are seen as “weak”. They’ll try to release as many games as possible on the next system, that means: as few as possible on the current Switch.
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We go through this routine every year. Making broad declarations about Nintendo's upcoming games before the first Direct of the year is folly.
 
Magic-Man said:
I don't get how people can look at the recent releases and still say that Nintendo is going to release some magical Switch 2 this year. It's a known fact that several games are getting DLC until the end of the year, and those are some pretty big titles. Late 2024/early 2025 always made the most sense. Like, y'all should have seen this coming lol
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some people, myself included, just wanted to believe Nintendo was better than they really are.
 
Isn't strange that Nintendo hasn't showed any gameplay from TotK? I mean, the game will realese in less than four months. In my opinion, I'm sure there's a new piece of hardware hidden waiting to start along with the marketing of Zelda.

My personal theory: this hardware will be a home console realesing this year along with Zelda; and the hybrid version of it would come out in 2025.
That would extense Switch's life and wouldn't affect OLED sales, given that both hardwares are completly differents.
 
Magic-Man said:
I don't get how people can look at the recent releases and still say that Nintendo is going to release some magical Switch 2 this year. It's a known fact that several games are getting DLC until the end of the year, and those are some pretty big titles. Late 2024/early 2025 always made the most sense. Like, y'all should have seen this coming lol
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I believe in 2024 but why would those live service games would affect hardware releases?

Unless you believe the next thing is not backward compatible it makes no senses.
 
I still think the node change/ redesign theory is probably the best way to reconcile everything we heard.

Kopite and Nate both heard it was 8nm. Kopite also heard it was 8SM. The soc in the Nvidia leak has 12SM which doesn't mesh very well with the 8nm rumor, but is very reasonable on 5nm.

Somewhere along the way, Nintendo decided to scrap the 8nm soc, and maybe add some new hook to the hardware. Wether it was Covid delays, the unexpected sales legs of the original tx1 hardware or a combination who knows. But it's the turn of events that makes most sense to me.
 
Maybe Nintendo is happy with the current Switch performance and is in no rush to replace it. An upgraded member of the Switch family was considered, but ultimately with the chip shortage and cost of parts they decided against releasing and will ride out Switch for the next 2 or so years. We will learn much more in the coming months with Nintendo's forecast and Directs. If a new 3D Mario is announced I would expect the successor to be even further out than already speculated.
 
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kalosmani said:
Nintendo can easily can coast to 2025

Metroid Prime HD
Metroid Prime 4
Mario Odyssey 2
2D Zelda game
Xenoblade X
Paper Mario Color Splash
Yoshi's Wooly World
Some Casual Shit
New Game from Mario Kart/Arms Team
Twilight Princess HD
Wind waker HD
Mario and Sonic Olympics
New 2D Mario
Wii Fit revival
PS3 ports, Metal Gear Rising etc
A ton of indie games
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i mean yeah, its better then most of wii u's time.
MP4, Odyssey 2 (if it exists),
2D Zelda (if its not a remake)
...ok, tats what would interest me from that list, and maybe some new 2d mario if its not a "new super mario bros" ame.
 
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Magic-Man said:
I don't get how people can look at the recent releases and still say that Nintendo is going to release some magical Switch 2 this year. It's a known fact that several games are getting DLC until the end of the year, and those are some pretty big titles. Late 2024/early 2025 always made the most sense. Like, y'all should have seen this coming lol
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Nintendo's always going to have some sort of active DLC run going, that's just how they do post release support now. If you wait for all of those to be done to release new hardware, you'll be waiting forever.
 
Intoxicate said:
Hardware might stay on 20M but software will stay strong, the system has so many big titles and not everyone is buying them since day one.
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I can't imagine that considering their original forecast for this FY was 21m, and they had to revise down to 19m. Hard to imagine a forecast above ~16m for next FY.
 
Spork4000 said:
I guess Nintendo really did look at their pandemic bump and decide that they could extend it a few more years. If this means we’ll get a Lovelace Switch 2 I’m for it though. The later it comes hopefully the better the hardware will be.
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I do believe Drake is still what we're going to get, and Drake is thoroughly Ampere.

But if Drake indeed is a 5nm soc it honestly doesn't matter much. We aren't getting the latest RT/ Tensor cores but on an equal node there wouldn't be a significant raster performance win on Ada.
 
Instro said:
I can't imagine that considering their original forecast for this FY was 21m, and they had to revise down to 19m. Hard to imagine a forecast above ~16m for next FY.
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Nintendo would need one hell of a lineup in 2023 to even entertain the idea of 20m units sold at this point and the announced titles we have not are definitely not enough. Overall it's a lot less titles then we got last year though I obviously assume more games will be announced at the next Direct.
 
LinkURL said:
Nintendo won't launch a Switch with Drake in 2025, that doesn't make the slightest sense, if the Tegra X1 and the chosen clocks were already a conservative choice in 2017, T239 in 2025 will be VERY late to the party.
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Why not? This would be more or less in line with the Switch. I don't think Nintendo cares about being 'late to the party' or whatever. If waiting makes the SoC cheaper to manufacture and more power-efficient, that's probably even better as far as they're concerned.
 
Eos said:
My personal theory: this hardware will be a home console realesing this year along with Zelda; and the hybrid version of it would come out in 2025.
That would extense Switch's life and wouldn't affect OLED sales, given that both hardwares are completly differents.
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I like this theory. It's a juke that would confuse leakers and potentially leave us where were are... Dev kits might get replaced, news of a canceled project, etc etc...

Best part is a home console drake would likely hit well above 4TF easy.
 
Eos said:
Isn't strange that Nintendo hasn't showed any gameplay from TotK? I mean, the game will realese in less than four months. In my opinion, I'm sure there's a new piece of hardware hidden waiting to start along with the marketing of Zelda.

My personal theory: this hardware will be a home console realesing this year along with Zelda; and the hybrid version of it would come out in 2025.
That would extense Switch's life and wouldn't affect OLED sales, given that both hardwares are completly differents.
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The last thing Nintendo wants is to separate itself into 2 groups after consolidating their development effort on Switch.
 
neon said:
I've never known someone who bought a system for mario kart. Sure its almost always a given when they get their hands on it but I don't think it sells systems itself.
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Are you seriously downplaying Mario Kart's selling power in a world where 8 Deluxe, a re-release, is like the best selling game on the system?

Mario Kart is bigger than Zelda. Bigger than Smash. Bigger than Mario.
 
For those that want a summary of the podcast without listening to the whole thing:
  • The media, fan community, and content creators got a little trigger happy with the term 'Switch Pro.' The term was used because it was an easy way to refer to the topic. There is evidence of new hardware but there was never any telling what it was (e.g. revison or successor) because that is a marketing decision.
  • The most common and well-substantiated reports from last year, namely that there was new hardware slated for late 22 or first half of 23, was true but that is no longer happening.
  • Details are scarce, but the Podcaster speculate a but on the feature set and release window of the new system. They were leaning towards 2024-2025.
  • A Super Wario Odyssey trilogy is confirmed to be in development, with the first game being released in the Switch successor launch window.
 
unifying EAD and SPD is like the number one thing that has worked in the Switch era, that shit is never getting split again
 
John Omaha said:
Why not? This would be more or less in line with the Switch. I don't think Nintendo cares about being 'late to the party' or whatever.
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Switch release date was 3ish years from first Maxwell arch. Drake would be FIVE. Performance is far more relevent to consumers nowadays then 2017, it would be stupid to have a bigger gap than then.
 
neon said:
I've never known someone who bought a system for mario kart. Sure its almost always a given when they get their hands on it but I don't think it sells systems itself.
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This is such a direct contradiction to what is easily seen when you look up the sales. What can you say to back this up?
 
Guy heard some things. Then he heard other things that contradicted the earlier things. Not much to get upset about I'd say. Some of the takes here make me feel really old.

We'll see how the Zelda mystery pans out this coming month.
 
Shadowrun said:
Are you seriously downplaying Mario Kart's selling power in a world where 8 Deluxe, a re-release, is like the best selling game on the system?

Mario Kart is bigger than Zelda. Bigger than Smash. Bigger than Mario.
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I am not saying that it doesn't sell or denying that it was and is the best selling game for the Wii U and Switch. I am saying that I do not believe it is a system seller by itself.

In my eyes a traditional consumer will always buy a Mario Kart with new hardware. However I do not think that many consumers would buy a new system for Mario Kart rather than just playing their old copy.
 
manfromthedam said:
Guy heard some things. Then he heard other things that contradicted the earlier things. Not much to get upset about I'd say. Some of the takes here make me feel really old.

We'll see how the Zelda mystery pans out this coming month.
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Pretty sure they are basically just doing what they did with titles like Splatoon. No footage until weeks before release. Splatoon went on to sell millions. I do think we will get a basic trailer at the next Direct but it doesn't look like Nintendo is going to be very generous with the Zelda footage at all. Maybe a little before release and that's it. The game will come out, it will look good, it will run "ok" and there will be no sign of new hardware and we will all sigh and move on.

I'm at least hoping for a better software lineup for 2023 then we have so far...
 
neon said:
I am not saying that it doesn't sell or denying that it was and is the best selling game for the Wii U and Switch. I am saying that I do not believe it is a system seller by itself.

In my eyes a traditional consumer will always buy a Mario Kart with new hardware. However I do not think that many consumers would buy a new system for Mario Kart rather than just playing their old copy.
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And again, I don't see how you'd get that assertion when you look at the sales and how they spike with a new Mario Kart. There's no real reason to believe this.

Edit: What numbers would Mario kart have to be at for it to be considered a "system seller,"?
 
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neon said:
I've never known someone who bought a system for mario kart. Sure its almost always a given when they get their hands on it but I don't think it sells systems itself.
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It's been one of the best selling games on the DS, Wii and Switch and you're saying that?
 
John Omaha said:
Why not? This would be more or less in line with the Switch. I don't think Nintendo cares about being 'late to the party' or whatever. If waiting makes the SoC cheaper to manufacture and more power-efficient, that's probably even better as far as they're concerned.
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The problem with the idea of Drake still being used is that it doesn't matchup with the dev kits being pulled as alleged. So there is obviously something missing in all of this.
 
arsen said:
I believe in 2024 but why would those live service games would affect hardware releases?

Unless you believe the next thing is not backward compatible it makes no senses.
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People on this forum really overestimate how much the public knows about backwards compatibility. Nintendo isn't going to continue supporting games on what is essentially a dead system, especially not this many of them. It would be pointless.

Raccoon said:
what we should have seen coming is @Magic-Man celebrating bad news
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A) I'm not celebrating
B) It's not bad news
 
Instro said:
The problem with the idea of Drake still being used is that it doesn't matchup with the dev kits being pulled as alleged. So there is obviously something missing in all of this.
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In the podcast they touch on this, and say it isn't uncommon for a dev kit to be pulled and redistributed if the specs changed and it ended up being more capable or different in some way.

The whole idea behind this isn't that Drake couldn't be used, it's that something about Drake changed enough to warrant a delay and 2023 is now off the table. For how long, we don't know, could be early 2024, could be early 2025.
 
Hush said:
And then what? Zelda and Mario would be in early development still, Smash Bros is a big question mark as a whole. I dont think any smaller series can do the heavy lifting these series do which is why they are almost certainly being positioned for the Switch 2 at this point
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Animal Crossing.
 
Sin Drive said:
And again, I don't see how you'd get that assertion when you look at the sales and how they spike with new a Mario Kart. There's no real reason to believe this.

Edit: What numbers would Mario kart have to be at for it to be considered a "system seller,"?
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I have not taken a look at system sales when a mario kart releases so perhaps I am completely wrong. I am simply speaking from my own experiences with my non-enthusiast friends who never bought the switch or wii u for Mario Kart, but instead games like Mario or Zelda which they all just picked up Mario Kart with.

Numbers for the games sales itself are irrelevent to my argument.
KeijiKG said:
It's been one of the best selling games on the DS, Wii and Switch and you're saying that?
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yeah pretty much lmao
 
Boxle said:
In the podcast they touch on this, and say it isn't uncommon for a dev kit to be pulled and redistributed if the specs changed and it ended up being more capable or different in some way.

The whole idea behind this isn't that Drake couldn't be used, it's that something about Drake changed enough to warrant a delay and 2023 is now off the table. For how long, we don't know, could be early 2024, could be early 2025.
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Every single year we add a year lol.
 
Not to be that guy, but aren't we getting way ahead of ourselves over what is essentially speculation? I don't think we should be putting so much stock into this, especially with what we know so far. But anyway, Imma bounce for the day, maybe I'll lurk every once in a while, but I'm not jiving with all of the pessimism and confirmation bias around here. Peace ✌️

Edit: This is now my second most Yeah'd post. Kinda nice to know I'm not the only one feeling weird about all this, but at least things seem to be calming down.
 
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Coco said:
The last thing Nintendo wants is to separate itself into 2 groups after consolidating their development effort on Switch.
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It wouldn't separate anything. The chip for this Home Switch would be the same chip as the next Switch 2 in 2025. The only difference would be the price of the console and the die. But the frequency would be the same as to maintain backwards compatibility.
 
neon said:
I have not taken a look at system sales when a mario kart releases so perhaps I am completely wrong. I am simply speaking from my own experiences with my non-enthusiast friends who never bought the switch or wii u for Mario Kart, but instead games like Mario or Zelda which they all just picked up Mario Kart with.

Numbers for the games sales itself are irrelevent to my argument.
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Anecdotals mean nothing in the face of hard evidence. Mario Kart has been consistently at least top 4 seller since inception and has been number 1 at least 3 times iirc. There's no reason to believe it isn't a system seller outside your extremely limited experiences.

I also don't understand the fact that game sales mean nothing. What games that sell numbers like MK exist that aren't system sellers?
 
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