I've been waiting for a predictions thread. Here are some of mine:
- A fresh 2D Mario will finally be launched in June, allowing for timely advertisements before showings of the Super Mario Bros. Movie. If I had to guess their approach, I'm expecting a "2.5D" game with ample camera movement and paths at different depths.
- I think we'll finally get a thoroughly reworked Everybody's 1-2 Switch sometime next year. EPD 4 is far too important to throw away a project, even if it takes a long time to make work.
- Pikmin 4 will not only be launched in 2023, but it will be a huge success. The dandori behavior mechanics and new camera angle will make the game much more accessible and marketable, creating an effect similar to the series-expanding Monster Hunter World.
- To me, the two big question marks remain Tomodachi and Rhythm Heaven. Tomodachi will likely come out of EPD 4 if it returns, but I suspect that will be further in the future based on the cramped EPD 4 production schedule. Rhythm Heaven, however, I expect to come out at the end of next year as a co-development project between EPD (4, most likely) and indieszero, recently tapped for Sushi Striker, Brain Training, and Big Brain Academy. With demonstrated proficiency with 2D graphics and rhythm games, I see this as a natural fit.
- It probably won't come out next year, but for a while now we've heard that Nintendo has always been tinkering with Pikmin and Star Fox. Pikmin is accounted for, so I expect the next surprise announcement to be Star Fox. Furthermore, I think it actually makes a lot of sense as an EPD 9 project. While a team of artists and designers of indeterminable size has been supporting Tour and 8 Deluxe, I'm still holding out hope that there's been a smaller project in co-development. This one is a long-shot, but I would love to see the EPD team with arguably the strongest art proficiency take on the series.
- 3D Mario and Donkey Kong are tricky. It feels like 2D Mario, 3D Mario, and Donkey Kong would be way too much for a single year from a marketing perspective, and more importantly the latter two are likely in co-development in Tokyo. I recently watched the Did You Know Gaming on Mario 128, which has given me the perspective that 3D Mario is likely now in a similar position of pursuing something totally new no matter how long it takes. As such, I suspect that a Tokyo-developed Donkey Kong will come in fall of 2023, while 3D Mario waits another year or more.
- I wholeheartedly believe in the value of a Splatoon spinoff and I even further believe in the value of Style Savvy Splatoon. It integrates perfectly with the world of Splatoon while also serving an entirely different genre and therefore a new front for interfacing with said world.
- Dōbutsu no Mori e+ was launched on June 27th, 2003, and deep in my heart I am hoping that Animal Crossing e++ is launched worldwide on June 23, 2023. This would mean sharing a month with 2D Mario, but Mario could come early anyway. Animal Crossing is obviously far bigger than ever before, and I believe that an enhanced remake of the first generation would be very compatible with New Horizons. I'd love such a game to take place between the first and second generations and include Blathers meeting Brewster and finishing his degree within gameplay. I believe one of the primary creative problems of the next game will be approaching the cast in a way that honors their development and keeps things fresh, so returning to an old game to solidify them to modern players would be very beneficial.
That's about all I have. I have no interest in trying to guess what will happen with hardware, so I've tried to sidestep the issue despite the bearing it has on software positioning. Tears of the Kingdom bores me but I'm sure it will come out on time and be renowned. Next year should also be very heavy with expansions, including ongoing support of Mario Kart and Splatoon. All that being said, will be a very interesting year regardless of what happens.
A recent development, along with a few things I've learned along the way, have impacted my predictions. As follows:
An Animal Crossing remake was always a stretch, but with hardware out of the question it's even more ridiculous.
I suspect they're full steam ahead on the next Animal Crossing entry for 2025 or later.
With
Splatoon 3 being left at the end of the Nintendo Switch lifespan,
I suspect that a radical new take on the Splatoon series is being prepared for the next generation. 2025, being ten years after the launch of the first game, seems like an appropriate target.
indieszero is working on Theatrhythm! Whoops.
With no soft successor, the need for a
brand new Mario Kart becomes too obvious for me to ignore. Late 2024, 2025, or maybe later. More importantly,
I no longer have any hope for anything from EPD 9 in between.
I maintain that
Pikmin 4 will be a critical and commercial sell, but it very well might suffer from performance-related docks to review scores across the board. I'm less bullish on it for sure, even if I maintain that the new camera angle was a great choice for the series's mainstream appeal.
I
now suspect that Zelda is coming in May to space out what will be one of the twilight years of the system, as well as to benefit from brand synergy with the movie.
I suspect 2D Mario will serve as a holiday tentpole.
I think
3D Mario will absolutely be saved for the launch of the next system, no matter how long that takes.
There will be ample space for
Everybody's 1-2 Switch in the quiet time before the next system. I'll buy it day one.
I seem to have broken my formatting, so I've separated these out into paragraphs.