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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (New Staff Post, Please read)

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Gianko said:
believe me bros. Before a successor there will be the Switch TV. Just a dock for 4k output.
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Dunno if the OLED's dock is already capable for it (given it's capable of firmware updates). It's just that the Mariko chip won't be up to snuff to upscale the image on its own.
 
Yesterday's Direct makes 2022 look like a Switch re-launch. They're re-introducing evergreens Strikers, Sports and Kart to keep momentum going, have some bombshell third parties with all the Square stuff, plus Valve (!) and No Man's Sky.

"E3" will be the moment of truth both for Switch 4K and Zelda. Reading between the lines though yesterday's Direct showed a lot of confidence, putting all those bombshells out before the Holidays and leaving the Holidays wide open.

Also they're leaning on NSO hard - they want to have a long-term relationship with their customers to prevent a mass exodus between generations. No Complacent Nintendo in sight despite their success - seems like Furukawa's "crisis mentality" pays off.
 
SiG said:
Dunno if the OLED's dock is already capable for it (given it's capable of firmware updates). It's just that the Mariko chip won't be up to snuff to upscale the image on its own.
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i mean with a sort of ai/dlss sort of upscaling.
 
Quoted by: SiG
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Unlike some people here, the recent game announcements don't change any of my predictions. Additionally, the difference between the "Pro" and "2" is still meaningless without a definition of what those even mean.
 
ILikeFeet said:
Unlike some people here, the recent game announcements don't change any of my predictions. Additionally, the difference between the "Pro" and "2" is still meaningless without a definition of what those even mean.
Click to expand...
My personal definition would be the following:

Iteration (Pro):
  • Number of limited number of exclusives (counted with one hand) .
  • Exclusive asides, plays the same SKU as previous models.
  • Marketed as a premium iteration of the previous models.
  • Replaced soon (Within 3 years) with a true successor.

Successor (2):
  • Launches with a number of exclusives.
  • Backwards compatibility aside, shared games are different SKU
  • Marketing makes clear the number of exclusives will only increase.
  • Marketed as a new ecosystem, different from the previous one.
  • Stated to last several years.
A successor can be not (much) more powerful than the previous console (See GC-Wii). The difference in power between iterations can approach a generation (XB1-XBX). So it's all about positioning, IMHO.

Dakhil said:
Theoretically speaking, yes, since the OLED model's dock has a DisplayPort 1.4 to HDMI 2.0b converter chip, which can theoretically support up to 4K 60 Hz.
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But, is the system capable? I know that Tegra X1 is capable, but dock aside, I believe that the MOBO lacks the output capabilities for 4k. Do we know of the OLED is the same?
 
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RainTech said:
Nintendo really blasting on all cylinders and still push the OG Switch so much, really changes the perspective.

I do still believe "Dane Switch" will come but it won't be as powerful as we now think.

If they treat it as a refresh only, still using the OG hardware as base for their games for a few more years, the HW really dosen't need to be as powerful.

If we get 2x Switch + DLSS + other minor improvements (WIFI, small Joycon adjustments), that would cut it. Yes, we all would like for Nintendo to go as hard as the formfactor allows BUT: The Smaller they can make the chip, the more they can squeeze out of a single wafer. We still are in a chip shortage. So having a more powerful model but it's a "modest upgrade" wich enables them to make more + keeping the OG alive makes more sense instead of having people freak out, trying desperately to get the new one. While the games on the new model will be shinier, they won't be so much better that you can take your time to upgrade or wait even for the real successor.

New games just run higher resolutions on it, added AA and DLSS. Maybe better texture filtering. I think that's about it.
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I don't see how exactly Dane could be more or less powerful than our current speculated range, the hardware is mostly figured out at this point. What they position it as will have no bearing on how powerful it is.
 
PedroNavajas said:
My personal definition would be the following:

Iteration (Pro):
  • Number of limited number of exclusives (counted with one hand) .
  • Exclusive asides, plays the same SKU as previous models.
  • Marketed as a premium iteration of the previous models.
  • Replaced soon (Within 3 years) with a true successor.

Successor (2):
  • Launches with a number of exclusives.
  • Backwards compatibility aside, shared games are different SKU
  • Marketing makes clear the number of exclusives will only increase.
  • Marketed as a new ecosystem, different from the previous one.
  • Stated to last several years.
A successor can be not (much) more powerful than the previous console (See GC-Wii). The difference in power between iterations can approach a generation (XB1-XBX). So it's all about positioning, IMHO.
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I feel like these ideas don't reflect modern software/hardware synergies. especially after Iwata desired an IOS/Android-like ecosystem. hell, just look at some XBO/PS4 games in that they can take advantage of new systems without needing a new SKU. phone software and PC software does this, so why can't consoles?

my biggest issue is the "replaced soon", I really don't see how that is gonna work from a cost perspective. chip design isn't as cheap as it used to be
 
Mildudon said:
As far as I know no new Mario Kart has launched alongside a console day and date.
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Many launched year one, but yeah, none right at launch. However, we've also never seen such a long period without a major Mario Kart game for the dedicated game machines, so it seemed likely enough to me that it would show up even earlier than normal for the next hardware. 48 additional tracks changes those calculations.
 
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I'm a noob when it comes to this kind of stuff, but I have a question about the OLED dock. I had been looking into getting one of those MClassic things to upscale the Switch for my new 4K TV, but they're not readily available in Ireland unless you pay a very hefty price tag, and even then it only upscales to 1440p. I know it has some kind of processing chip inside it that does the tweaking necessary to upscale it to 1440p. Does the OLED dock have something like that? Or how would a theoretical 4K output work with the OLED dock? (I know it cannot currently output a 4K signal, but just wondering if a firmware update for the dock could change that)
 
Jafin said:
I'm a noob when it comes to this kind of stuff, but I have a question about the OLED dock. I had been looking into getting one of those MClassic things to upscale the Switch for my new 4K TV, but they're not readily available in Ireland unless you pay a very hefty price tag, and even then it only upscales to 1440p. I know it has some kind of processing chip inside it that does the tweaking necessary to upscale it to 1440p. Does the OLED dock have something like that? Or how would a theoretical 4K output work with the OLED dock? (I know it cannot currently output a 4K signal, but just wondering if a firmware update for the dock could change that)
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Quick answer: No

Then, on my 75" 4K TV I don't have issues with Switch games. It's not like the MClassic will drastcally improve the visuals.
The dock simply outputs what the Switch tablet is rendering. The original dock is limited to 1080p/60Hz.
 
Intoxicate said:
Quick answer: No

Then, on my 75" 4K TV I don't have issues with Switch games. It's not like the MClassic will drastcally improve the visuals.
Click to expand...

Thanks. Yeah I don't really have an issue with it either, was only going to get the MClassic if it cleaned up the image a bit. I didn't realise how expensive it would be here, so the price tag put a stop to that. The few games I tried out looked fine, not anywhere near as bad as I had seen some people saying it would look on a 4K TV.
 
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Jafin said:
I'm a noob when it comes to this kind of stuff, but I have a question about the OLED dock. I had been looking into getting one of those MClassic things to upscale the Switch for my new 4K TV, but they're not readily available in Ireland unless you pay a very hefty price tag, and even then it only upscales to 1440p. I know it has some kind of processing chip inside it that does the tweaking necessary to upscale it to 1440p. Does the OLED dock have something like that? Or how would a theoretical 4K output work with the OLED dock? (I know it cannot currently output a 4K signal, but just wondering if a firmware update for the dock could change that)
Click to expand...
The Oled dock has no ups calling chip, and far as Nintendo is (seemingly) concerned, there's no difference with the original dock.

ILikeFeet said:
I feel like these ideas don't reflect modern software/hardware synergies. especially after Iwata desired an IOS/Android-like ecosystem. hell, just look at some XBO/PS4 games in that they can take advantage of new systems without needing a new SKU. phone software and PC software does this, so why can't consoles?

my biggest issue is the "replaced soon", I really don't see how that is gonna work from a cost perspective. chip design isn't as cheap as it used to be
Click to expand...
Microsoft is surely moving away from the generation models. But Sony still has a clearly defined separation, with games like TLoU launching with different SKU. PC has no successor, only iterations. Same with mobile phones.
 
NeonRed said:
@Jafin I have 55" 4K TV and all first party games look great. If your TV has at least a decent upscaler then I would not worry about MClassic.
Click to expand...

Yeah mine is only 50" and it looks fine honestly. Legends Arceus is a bit jaggy, but that's just...Legends being Legends. I did a quick test with Mario Maker 2 and Mario Kart 8 Deluxe when I first got the TV and they both looked perfectly fine.
 
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lexony said:
I know this isn’t a super new theory and not really much insight from my part but I see the Switch 2 or whatever we call it now as a generation light upgrade. More along the line DS to 3DS. Same look and feel of the hardware.

In my mind Nintendo is trying to replicate the DS with the Switch:
  • DS = Switch
  • DS Lite = Switch Lite
  • DSi = OLED Model
  • 3DS = Switch 2

Only thing different now would be that they would not leave the original switch that fast like with the DS to 3DS transition and having it alongside Switch 2 for a long time. I think they already tried how that will work when they were still doing 3DS games until 2019 alongside Switch.

Maybe their plan isn‘t to have a clear cut transition and having their userbase over two generations for a long time. I could see them releasing Switch 2 in late 2022/2023 and doing smaller Switch games until like 2027.

This would also fit to their remark that the Switch will be there for a long time and that next gen is 20XX which always sounded to me 2030+
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I stay at my prediction that we'll see a Switch 2 Iterative Successor type of thing (DS -> 3DS) way into Switches second half of its life cycle. Only that it will propably be released in late 2023/early 2024 the soonest. But I totaly see them supporting the current Switch at least with some new titles beyond 2024. I actually think that there was planned to have some type of a more powerful version of the Switch at some point in 2020/21 but it got scrapped because of the Chip Shortages and Switch selling beyond their expectations so we got the OLED instead.

But if I'm wrong then Sommer/Fall 2023 would be my guess for a Switch Pro release in line with their 2 year cycle of new hardware releases and then by the end of 2025 (or even later) a Succesor

Edit: To define what I mean by Pro and Successor:
Pro/Switch 4K in 2023
  • Marketed as a premium model
  • Maybe some exclusive third party games
  • DLSS to achieve 4K
  • Fully Backwards compatible as native as possible
Successor in 2023/24 (if there isn't a Switch Pro)
  • Marketed as their new main platform for games
  • First and third parties will get mainly released on new hardware, but original Switch will still get supported by Nintendo with smaller titles
  • DLSS / Backwards compatible (powerwise probably not any different as a Pro would be)
  • Some kind of a new gimmick (AR/...)
  • New Controllers
  • Other features
Successor in 2025+ (if there is a Switch Pro)
  • Noticably more Power?
  • Backwards compatiblity?
  • New formfactor?
  • ???
 
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ILikeFeet said:
Unlike some people here, the recent game announcements don't change any of my predictions. Additionally, the difference between the "Pro" and "2" is still meaningless without a definition of what those even mean.
Click to expand...
I don't even think it will be called a Pro or a 2.

What if they announce the Nintendo Switch Super 4K , will we spend 100 pages arguing?
At this point we know the hardware (we think) will be based on Ampere SoC at 8nm, we have a general sense of its capabilities and the specifics will depend on SMs in the design and clocks, but there's a range we can operate in.

To me, iterative vs. successor is all int he marketing, software and positioning of this device.

I think it's fair to assume BC is a main priority whatever they decide to do, so if the console has BC and is branded Switch 2 but with a new OS, it will feel like a new generation. If it has BC, uses a very similar look to the current Switch with added features and is called the Switch 4K it will feel iterative.
And it could also have BC , have a new OS but be called the Switch Super /Plus/Advanced as well and still be iterative if Nintendo pushes that angle.

The hardware is the same in all scenarios.
 
PedroNavajas said:
But, is the system capable? I know that Tegra X1 is capable, but dock aside, I believe that the MOBO lacks the output capabilities for 4k. Do we know of the OLED is the same?
Click to expand...
According to IFixIt's teardown of the OLED model, the OLED model does use the same PI3USB30532 chip as the Nintendo Switch. However, dataminers noticed that Nintendo added "4kdp_preferred_over_usb30" for system update version 12.0.0 and newer. And the specs for the PI3USB30532 chip mention four channels of DisplayPort 1.2 to the USB Type-C connector as an option. So assuming the USB Type-C connectors on the OLED model and the OLED model's dock are using four channels of DisplayPort 1.2, there should be enough bandwidth for 4K 60 Hz since DisplayPort 1.2 has a max bandwidth of 21.6 Gbps, and 8.91 Gbps is the minimum amount of bandwidth required for 4K 60 Hz, based on the HDMI 2.1 chart provided by the HDMI Forum.
misc-formatdataratetable-large.jpg

The specs for the PI3USB30532 chip also mention one channel of USB 3.2 Gen 1 (or USB 3.1 Gen 1 or USB 3.0) and two channels of DisplayPort 1.2 to the USB Type-C connector as another option. So assuming that two channels of DisplayPort 1.2 have a max bandwidth of 10.8 Gbps, and assuming the USB Type-C connectors on the OLED model and the OLED model's dock are using one channel of USB 3.2 Gen 1 and two channels of DisplayPort 1.2, there should also be enough bandwidth for 4K 60 Hz.

So the OLED model, theoretically speaking, is perfectly capable of outputting at 4K 60 Hz.
 
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Dakhil said:
But is the Tegra X1+ on the OLED model capable of running games at 4K 60 Hz is a completely different story. I imagine the Tegra X1+ on the OLED model is going to really struggle running games at 4K 60 Hz, which is why I imagine Nintendo made the max resolution of TV mode for the OLED model the same as with the Nintendo Switch, at 1080p 60 Hz.
Click to expand...
What? Output resolution has nothing to do with specs, or rendering resolution.

It would only benefit 4k tvs without decent scalers though.

And the usbc also shares bandwidth with the Ethernet cable, which might impact things as well.
 
Dekuman said:
I don't even think it will be called a Pro or a 2.

What if they announce the Nintendo Switch Super 4K , will we spend 100 pages arguing?
At this point we know the hardware (we think) will be based on Ampere SoC at 8nm, we have a general sense of its capabilities and the specifics will depend on SMs in the design and clocks, but there's a range we can operate in.

To me, iterative vs. successor is all int he marketing, software and positioning of this device.

I think it's fair to assume BC is a main priority whatever they decide to do, so if the console has BC and is branded Switch 2 but with a new OS, it will feel like a new generation. If it has BC, uses a very similar look to the current Switch with added features and is called the Switch 4K it will feel iterative.
And it could also have BC , have a new OS but be called the Switch Super /Plus/Advanced as well and still be iterative if Nintendo pushes that angle.

The hardware is the same in all scenarios.
Click to expand...
after yesterday's direct, I've seen more "pro before 2" than ever, hence why I always ask about what makes the two different. quite frankly I still don't know how you can get a "switch but in 4K" while being a slight upgrade when we're generations ahead
 
ILikeFeet said:
after yesterday's direct, I've seen more "pro before 2" than ever, hence why I always ask about what makes the two different. quite frankly I still don't know how you can get a "switch but in 4K" while being a slight upgrade when we're generations ahead
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I think those comments (like mine) are more about how it will be positioned than what the hardware itself will have. Like I've said the hardware is probably as close to a known quantity as it can be before it's revealed. It's the marketing and positioning which is currently the big question on everyone's mind, and the past couple Directs have screamed to me "Switch gen is lasting a very long time, no Switch 2 for a while"
 
Skittzo said:
I think those comments (like mine) are more about how it will be positioned than what the hardware itself will have. Like I've said the hardware is probably as close to a known quantity as it can be before it's revealed. It's the marketing and positioning which is currently the big question on everyone's mind, and the past couple Directs have screamed to me "Switch gen is lasting a very long time, no Switch 2 for a while"
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having software be more independent from hardware means that when new hardware launches is irrelevant. outside of single player games, stuff like Wii Sports, Splatoon, and Mario Kart don't really say anything about Dane releasing because service games continue on even after new hardware. like Apex Legends or Genshin Impact, or Final Fantasy 14
 
ILikeFeet said:
having software be more independent from hardware means that when new hardware launches is irrelevant. outside of single player games, stuff like Wii Sports, Splatoon, and Mario Kart don't really say anything about Dane releasing because service games continue on even after new hardware. like Apex Legends or Genshin Impact, or Final Fantasy 14
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It's more about when enough new software would be ready to push a "new gen" type launch. I don't see that happening until like 2025-2027.
 
Skittzo said:
It's more about when enough new software would be ready to push a "new gen" type launch. I don't see that happening until like 2025-2027.
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Xbox Series and PS5 is doing pretty damn well despite that. not to mention there are a lot of games third parties can repackage as Dane games that the Switch didn't get. they won't be at full potential due to lateness, but if the game is still desirable enough, they'll make their porting costs back and then some
 
Hermii said:
And the usbc also shares bandwidth with the Ethernet cable, which might impact things as well.
Click to expand...
That's why I've mentioned a theoretical scenario where the USB Type-C connectors on the OLED model and the OLED model's dock are using one channel of USB 3.2 Gen 1 (or USB 3.1 Gen 1 or USB 3.0) and two channels of DisplayPort 1.2, which is an option according to the specs for the PI3USB30532 chip. And assuming two channels of DisplayPort 1.2 have a max theoretical bandwidth of 10.8 Gbps (since DisplayPort 1.2 has a max theoretical bandwidth of 21.9 Gbps), that should still be enough bandwidth for 4K 60 Hz since 8.91 Gbps is the minimum bandwidth needed for 4K 60 Hz, based on the HDMI 2.1 chart, especially with the one channel of USB 3.2 Gen 1 used for the LAN port, and the USB 2.0 pins on the USB Type-C connector on the OLED model's dock being dedicated to the USB Type-A (USB 2.0) ports on the OLED model's dock. So the OLED model in that theoretical scenario should still be able to output at 4K 60 Hz.
 
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ILikeFeet said:
Xbox Series and PS5 is doing pretty damn well despite that. not to mention there are a lot of games third parties can repackage as Dane games that the Switch didn't get. they won't be at full potential due to lateness, but if the game is still desirable enough, they'll make their porting costs back and then some
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I doubt Nintendo is planning to just launch it with minimal big software support early on. It may have worked for Sony and MS but there are also plenty of extenuating circumstances around these consoles factoring into that (biggest being COVID).

Still, their upcoming lineup and how they talk about Switch and their next platform in Q&As and the like paint a picture of a very long lifetime for the Switch "gen" IMO.
 
Skittzo said:
I doubt Nintendo is planning to just launch it with minimal big software support early on. It may have worked for Sony and MS but there are also plenty of extenuating circumstances around these consoles factoring into that (biggest being COVID).

Still, their upcoming lineup and how they talk about Switch and their next platform in Q&As and the like paint a picture of a very long lifetime for the Switch "gen" IMO.
Click to expand...
I think Nintendo has relearned the lesson of launching without strong software in the launch window. WII U and 3DS both suffered.

The Switch's.software cadence and Nintendos target for monthly releases is a direct reaction to that

I can't see them unlearned that lesson
They will launch with a strong launch window lineup, so a release every month with the tent poles at launch and at the next peak sales season
 
Skittzo said:
I doubt Nintendo is planning to just launch it with minimal big software support early on. It may have worked for Sony and MS but there are also plenty of extenuating circumstances around these consoles factoring into that (biggest being COVID).

Still, their upcoming lineup and how they talk about Switch and their next platform in Q&As and the like paint a picture of a very long lifetime for the Switch "gen" IMO.
Click to expand...
I'm not saying there won't be big games for launch, but they'll be cross gen (save for a couple) with the base switch. could be different SKUs, could be the same executable in different boxes.
 
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Dakhil said:
According to IFixIt's teardown of the OLED model, the OLED model does use the same PI3USB30532 chip as the Nintendo Switch. However, dataminers noticed that Nintendo added "4kdp_preferred_over_usb30" for system update version 12.0.0 and newer. And the specs for the PI3USB30532 chip mention four channels of DisplayPort 1.2 to the USB Type-C connector as an option. So assuming the USB Type-C connectors on the OLED model and the OLED model's dock are using four channels of DisplayPort 1.2, there should be enough bandwidth for 4K 60 Hz since DisplayPort 1.2 has a max bandwidth of 21.6 Gbps, and 8.91 Gbps is the minimum amount of bandwidth required for 4K 60 Hz, based on the HDMI 2.1 chart provided by the HDMI Forum.
misc-formatdataratetable-large.jpg

The specs for the PI3USB30532 chip also mention one channel of USB 3.2 Gen 1 (or USB 3.1 Gen 1 or USB 3.0) and two channels of DisplayPort 1.2 to the USB Type-C connector as another option. So assuming that two channels of DisplayPort 1.2 have a max bandwidth of 10.8 Gbps, and assuming the USB Type-C connectors on the OLED model and the OLED model's dock are using one channel of USB 3.2 Gen 1 and two channels of DisplayPort 1.2, there should also be enough bandwidth for 4K 60 Hz.

So the OLED model, theoretically speaking, is perfectly capable of outputting at 4K 60 Hz.
Click to expand...

Have you seen an estimate of how much higher is the OLED bill of material?
 
PedroNavajas said:
  • Replaced soon (Within 3 years) with a true successor.
Click to expand...

I mean, let's say a Pro model comes out this holiday with BOTW 2. It has A78 CPU cores and an Ampere based GPU. Great.

What would a true successor ("Switch 2") even offer after that? I mean 3 years isn't a lot of time to let the tech mature enough to the point to where a significant upgrade would even be possible.

Nintendo is going to want to make a true successor actually feel like a new generation and something worthy of upgrading to - but I don't know how they can achieve that a few years after releasing a "Pro" model with A78 CPU cores and an Ampere GPU with DLSS capabilities.
 
Sol said:
I mean, let's say a Pro model comes out this holiday with BOTW 2. It has A78 CPU cores and an Ampere based GPU. Great.

What would a true successor ("Switch 2") even offer after that? I mean 3 years isn't a lot of time to let the tech mature enough to the point to where a significant upgrade would even be possible.

Nintendo is going to want to make a true successor actually feel like a new generation and something worthy of upgrading to - but I don't know how they can achieve that a few years after releasing a "Pro" model with A78 CPU cores and an Ampere GPU with DLSS capabilities.
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IMO (and I believe I deviate from the mainstream with this) I don't believe they'll want their next "true" platform to simply be a Switch 2. They'll want it to revolve around a new concept, like they have been doing ever since the DS came out. I have no idea what that could be, but I don't see it as something that will need a big jump in processing capability to differentiate itself.
 
ILikeFeet said:
Xbox Series and PS5 is doing pretty damn well despite that. not to mention there are a lot of games third parties can repackage as Dane games that the Switch didn't get. they won't be at full potential due to lateness, but if the game is still desirable enough, they'll make their porting costs back and then some
Click to expand...

Sony and MS also have full 3rd party support wich picks up alot of the slack. BC/Upgrades to existing games help aswell but i don't think Nintendo will ever trust anyone but themselves for a strong launch lineup after the Wii U was left hanging and seeing how the Switch + games selling Gangbusters since day 1 thanks to the strong 1st year of 1st party games.
 
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Skittzo said:
I don't see how exactly Dane could be more or less powerful than our current speculated range, the hardware is mostly figured out at this point. What they position it as will have no bearing on how powerful it is.
Click to expand...

Of course. 4 cores as the OG, 4SM max. Way lower clocks than anticipated. Why would they do it? Because the smaller the chip is, the more they can fit onto a wafer. If the clockspeed target is lower, the less "garbage" (aka broken Chips) are on the wafer (Better yields). If the OG Switch remains the base target for a few more years, there is only so much they can do to improve games. I doubt they do "pro exclusives", especially duting a chip shortage when the new one might be hard to get. It will be more powerful but not like current estimations. It will render higher res , smoothes some framerates, might add AA + DLSS. That's all they need to improve the performance and visuals for docked mode.

Of course, this is only speculation on my part. But lets not underestimate the impact of the chip shortage.

A true successor would then surface around 25-26 IMO.
 
Sol said:
I mean, let's say a Pro model comes out this holiday with BOTW 2. It has A78 CPU cores and an Ampere based GPU. Great.

What would a true successor ("Switch 2") even offer after that? I mean 3 years isn't a lot of time to let the tech mature enough to the point to where a significant upgrade would even be possible.

Nintendo is going to want to make a true successor actually feel like a new generation and something worthy of upgrading to - but I don't know how they can achieve that a few years after releasing a "Pro" model with A78 CPU cores and an Ampere GPU with DLSS capabilities.
Click to expand...
That's the point. The specs of the chip we are hearing about is a next gen Switch. Nintendo may simply go the iPad route and iterate on Switch rather than throwing everything out and starting over. It's all in the positioning and marketing
 
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RainTech said:
Of course. 4 cores as the OG, 4SM max. Way lower clocks than anticipated. Why would they do it? Because the smaller the chip is, the more they can fit onto a wafer. If the clockspeed target is lower, the less "garbage" (aka broken Chips) are on the wafer (Better yields). If the OG Switch remains the base target for a few more years, there is only so much they can do to improve games. I doubt they do "pro exclusives", especially duting a chip shortage when the new one might be hard to get. It will be more powerful but not like current estimations. It will render higher res , smoothes some framerates, might add AA + DLSS. That's all they need to improve the performance and visuals for docked mode.

Of course, this is only speculation on my part. But lets not underestimate the impact of the chip shortage.

A true successor would then surface around 25-26 IMO.
Click to expand...
Clock speeds are one thing, but I don't think they can simply change the chip configuration in response to looking at market trends. The major components of the SoC will need to have been pretty much finalized probably some time last year. They could probably get away with including less storage or less RAM I guess.

What I'm saying is, I don't think they can or would react to decisions made recently or sales they saw recently by actually changing the physical configuration of the chip. If it was 4 cores and 4SMs it was likely intended to be that way back when the chip design started.
 
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RainTech said:
Of course. 4 cores as the OG, 4SM max. Way lower clocks than anticipated. Why would they do it? Because the smaller the chip is, the more they can fit onto a wafer. If the clockspeed target is lower, the less "garbage" (aka broken Chips) are on the wafer (Better yields). If the OG Switch remains the base target for a few more years, there is only so much they can do to improve games. I doubt they do "pro exclusives", especially duting a chip shortage when the new one might be hard to get. It will be more powerful but not like current estimations. It will render higher res , smoothes some framerates, might add AA + DLSS. That's all they need to improve the performance and visuals for docked mode.

Of course, this is only speculation on my part. But lets not underestimate the impact of the chip shortage.

A true successor would then surface around 25-26 IMO.
Click to expand...
Umm...sorry to break it to you but.

The Orin uArch that Dane will be based on can only go as low as 8SMs space-wise (GPCs are the important thing, 8SMs per GPC means that is as absolutely the smallest the GPU could get size-wise)
captura_de_pantalla_2021-.webp

So 8SMs is the most likely outcome as it's just more efficient to have more GPU cores clocked lower if you are locked into that size anyway which 8SMs of Orin at 768mghz like the OG Switch's docked clock will still be well ahead of the GTX 1050, therefore quite a bit ahead of the OG PS4.

And the A78Cs that will be used in Dane only come in 6 or 8 Core configs so no to the 4 Core idea.

8 A78C and 8SMs is just the most likely config both size and hardware-wise because the space savings of dropping 2 cores on the CPU is likely not that big and in trade you gain more or less perfect cross-compatibility with the PS4/Xbox One. and more than likely easy compatibility with games from the Next-Gen bois as they all run 8 core configs.
 
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Skittzo said:
IMO (and I believe I deviate from the mainstream with this) I don't believe they'll want their next "true" platform to simply be a Switch 2. They'll want it to revolve around a new concept, like they have been doing ever since the DS came out. I have no idea what that could be, but I don't see it as something that will need a big jump in processing capability to differentiate itself.
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Yea. Dane is the true successor in terms of tech. There is no possibility they can release something that blows that away a few years later.
 
Alovon11 said:
Umm...sorry to break it to you but.

The Orin uArch that Dane will be based on can only go as low as 8SMs space-wise (GPCs are the important thing, 8SMs per GPC means that is as absolutely the smallest the GPU could get size-wise)
captura_de_pantalla_2021-.webp

So 8SMs is the most likely outcome as it's just more efficient to have more GPU cores clocked lower if you are locked into that size anyway which 8SMs of Orin at 768mghz like the OG Switch's docked clock will still be well ahead of the GTX 1050, therefore quite a bit ahead of the OG PS4.

And the A78Cs that will be used in Dane only come in 6 or 8 Core configs so no to the 4 Core idea.

8 A78C and 8SMs is just the most likely config both size and hardware-wise because the space savings of dropping 2 cores on the CPU is likely not that big and in trade you gain more or less perfect cross-compatibility with the PS4/Xbox One. and more than likely easy compatibility with games from the Next-Gen bois as they all run 8 core configs.
Click to expand...
Have you and @Thraktor debated this? I’m wondering why his prediction is basically half of yours. The 8SM options seems easier from Nintendo’s perspective.
 
Vash_the_Stampede said:
Have you and @Thraktor debated this? I’m wondering why his prediction is basically half of yours. The 8SM options seems easier from Nintendo’s perspective.
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Honestly, I don't know if he's read my posts about Orin's GPCs making 8SMs by far the more likely outcome cost/effort-wise.

But just on the terms of making an SoC based on Orin, the closer to the OG Orin the SoC is the cheaper, and sticking to the closer to A78AE, A78Cs which come in either 6 or 8 cores is cheaper, and 8SMs target lets them keep clocks lower which lets them save on cooling and power delivery for the same/better performance

They also get more games to get % cuts on in the eShop if devs can very easily port their PS4/Xbox One games over to Dane more or less if it's at 8 CPU cores.
 
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Skittzo said:
IIRC Thraktor came to the conclusion that 8SMs would result in too big of a SoC die, at least if they're trying to keep the die size similar to that of the base Switch.
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I don't believe there's any reason to even keep the die the same size as the TX1. that was only 120mm2 by "coincedence". now that Nintendo is getting a bespoke chip, it can grow as large as needed within reason. and that's really anywhere below 200mm2
 
Alovon11 said:
Umm...sorry to break it to you but.

The Orin uArch that Dane will be based on can only go as low as 8SMs space-wise (GPCs are the important thing, 8SMs per GPC means that is as absolutely the smallest the GPU could get size-wise)
captura_de_pantalla_2021-.webp

So 8SMs is the most likely outcome as it's just more efficient to have more GPU cores clocked lower if you are locked into that size anyway which 8SMs of Orin at 768mghz like the OG Switch's docked clock will still be well ahead of the GTX 1050, therefore quite a bit ahead of the OG PS4.

And the A78Cs that will be used in Dane only come in 6 or 8 Core configs so no to the 4 Core idea.

8 A78C and 8SMs is just the most likely config both size and hardware-wise because the space savings of dropping 2 cores on the CPU is likely not that big and in trade you gain more or less perfect cross-compatibility with the PS4/Xbox One. and more than likely easy compatibility with games from the Next-Gen bois as they all run 8 core configs.
Click to expand...

We'll see. It's not the first time we think we figured everything out just to be completely off base.
 
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NineTailSage said:
What Alovon11 is stating is if Dane is based on Orin and if they went with 4SM's it would still utilize 1 GPC to obtain those 4SM's which is a waste because you aren't saving die space by going with 4SM's...
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Exactly.
So Tharktor's main premise is inherently flawed because of Orin's uArch.

The only way to make 4SMs save space is to go in and rework the uArch which is likely expensive
 
ILikeFeet said:
I don't believe there's any reason to even keep the die the same size as the TX1. that was only 120mm2 by "coincedence". now that Nintendo is getting a bespoke chip, it can grow as large as needed within reason. and that's really anywhere below 200mm2
Click to expand...
Bigger chips cost more
 
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