StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (New Staff Post, Please read)

[Lancelot]

they can't move the launch date so easily. if they penned it for March 2025, suppliers would probably be prepping to move parts at this point. they stop that, there are repercussions.

There were already repercussions when they delayed to next year... I don't think a few more matter that much to them at this point.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

If Nintendo goes into July with no news about Switch 2, I'm definitely moving towards Fall 2025 as my estimated release date which would be a pretty horrific mistake by Nintendo.

they can't move the launch date so easily. if they penned it for March 2025, suppliers would probably be prepping to move parts at this point. they stop that, there are repercussions.

Didn't they just move the launch date by 5 months like three months ago.

 

[LuigiBlood]

But this is their most dire release schedule in more than a half decade and they'll be projecting one of their lowest years ever in terms of hardware sales

This is purely on public release schedule. We also said this last June and then Nintendo filled the rest of the year in a single Direct.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

This is purely on public release schedule. We also said this last June and then Nintendo filled the rest of the year in a single Direct.

I mean, sure in terms of upcoming releases, but they released 2.5 original titles in the first six months of this year as well, lol.

And they still haven't filled up that upcoming lineup yet despite having no titles to promote like TotK last year. TTYD will probably do like... 3-4m? You can distract people away from this by announcing your Fall games.

 

[Aufhebung RPG]

I'll say it again, Nintendo machine release delays are a "common practice" that has happened many times, don't think this is big news.

 

[Hosermess]

You know what, the more information we get about this console, the more I actually don't think Nintendo are going to use DLSS to upscale to 4K.

Most likely they will just use DLAA at 1080p/DLSS 720p to 1080p, and then use a spatial upscaler like NIS or FSR 1.0 to make it look nicer. It saves a lot on the GPU side and the image quality wouldn't be all that bad.

More information like buttons and magnets?

 

[ILikeFeet]

There were already repercussions when they delayed to next year... I don't think a few more matter that much to them at this point.

Didn't they just move the launch date by 5 months like three months ago.

we don't know that exactly. the only time we heard about a solid release day was the recent "delay". and we aren't even certain if there was a delay or people assuming there was one.

my point is, once they settle on a release period, manufacturing ramps up. and at that point, delays would have problems. if this recent "delay" was before any production ramp up, then that's less of a problem

 

[LuigiBlood]

I mean, sure in terms of upcoming releases, but they released 2.5 original titles in the first six months of this year as well, lol.

And they still haven't filled up that upcoming lineup yet despite having no titles to promote like TotK last year. TTYD will probably do like... 3-4m? You can distract people away from this by announcing your Fall games.

You know very well that Nintendo only cares about a consistent release schedule and they always fill it with ports/remasters/remakes since day 1. The first 6 months of the Switch was 3 original titles (BOTW, 1-2-Switch, ARMS), a sequel that barely brings much other than presence on Switch (Splatoon 2), and Mario Kart 8 Deluxe (port).

 

[Dimensio]

I was thinking, what if it comes out at the very end of march 2025, like the 28th or something like that?
While Switch 2 sales themselves would have next to no impact on the FY, the announcement of the console would still have a significant impact on switch 1 sales.

Even if They don't reveal it in June during not-E3 and wait until the very last possible moment (October) to reveal it, surely They would have to acknowledge that new hardware is coming, They couldn't get away with just saying "we only plan to sell 8 million units this year" and provide no explanation, right?

I mean They could do something like cut the price of the Switch 1 and manage decent sales this FY even with the Switch 2 announced but still, If it's really releasing in March 2025 I just don't see why They wouldn't at least mention it during the investor meeting.
I don't even see what's the advantage in waiting until October instead of revealing in June and start building hype.

 

[Shareholder Chad]

Confirming a March 2025 release would definitely be good for investors to price in. Come on, Nintendo, announce it, not for the diehards, and not for the casuals, for God's sake think of the shareholders!

This is purely on public release schedule. We also said this last June and then Nintendo filled the rest of the year in a single Direct.

It wouldn't surprise me if they have 10+ projects they can release between now and next march. Some completed, Some in development. Pokemon is gonna be the franchise that they ride this holiday in my opinion.

Exactly. And by the way, welcome back!

Thank you Thank you!

 

[Concernt]

If the rumours are true about it having been planned for 2024 and pushed back to late 2025, then a push from early 2025 sounds pretty disastrous. Holiday '24 to March '25 is a push within the financial year for Nintendo. Pushing it out of the financial year it was planned for would be a lot more painful, and presumably upset even more launch partners.

I have to admit the long wait for this thing does make me worry they've fucked it up in some way. Just absolutely goosed it. Overcooked 'til smouldering. The Wii U of handhelds coming in hot and steamy.

But that's probably not the case.

 

[ziggyrivers]

If Nintendo pushed the release from Holiday 2024 to Q1 2025, the it means it was always part of a contingency of their plan. I presume manufacturing, distribution and warehouse contracts were still in negotiation or had a delay clause in them that the contract could take X amount of month before obligations had to be started. I doubt Nintendo made a fiscal blunder by delaying the console five months

 

[bloopland33]

I mean, a lot of it is likely "diagnosable hyperfixation" as much as it is anything like skill. But it's basically Google + Contacts + an unusual background. I have had a winding tech career, and art career, that gives me surface knowledge of a lot of things. Which feeds back into the first two.

As an example, I think it was @darthdiablo some months who very smartly suggested you could look at casting calls, and see if someone was developing an ad for the next hardware. Google turned up a couple of tantalizing possibilities, and they were being discussed here.

I work as an actor, so I know that there are only so many casting-call databases and I already have paid memberships at the biggest ones. I checked all of them, but I also reached out to some production company friends who might have access to calls for camera/makeup/lighting crew. The Switch October ad was produced with non-union talent and shot in Canada, which is not uncommon when you want a wide variety of non-actors, with a wide-variety of looks. But the crews are almost always union folks flown in from LA or NYC.

So I pinged all my game nerd buddies and asked for anything that might match on any boards they might check. I got maybe 20 ads, filtered out the obvious ones. Then, for the ones that were left, I asked some game industry friends "hey, this is how a project is being described. Do you know anything unannounced-but-common-knowledge that might match?" Like, the one ad that looked like it might match turned out to be a print spread (non-video) for the most recent Atari Flashback.

With Samsung, I don't know anyone who works there. I know several people who work with them, so I can ask questions like "what does this internal four letter acronym mean" and "would this project come out of Samsung Korea, or not." That's how I determined it was two separate projects. They looked like the same project from google, but two people claimed to be managers, in two different countries. Asked around, ah, separate branches. One usually does work around automotive (unsurprising, considering the origin of Orin/Drake), the other is strictly storage related.

Super fascinating reply and as an overthinker/big “detail” person I appreciate your detailed response! You left no blanks for my mind to have to try filling in which I appreciate haha

That is really interesting and makes complete sense. Thanks for sharing, and hopefully your “probably” about Samsung is right. Exciting stuff ahead.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

You know very well that Nintendo only cares about a consistent release schedule and they always fill it with ports/remasters/remakes since day 1. The first 6 months of the Switch was 3 original titles (BOTW, 1-2-Switch, ARMS), a sequel that barely brings much other than presence on Switch (Splatoon 2), and Mario Kart 8 Deluxe (port).

The gap in desirability between these ports/pseudo ports and the remakes offered by Nintendo this year is pretty large.

Mario vs. DK, Princess Peach, TTYD, and LM2 are probably all 3-4m sellers who will be in the 70s on Metacritic other than TTYD.

Another Code and Endless Ocean will probably do like 500k or less, Another Code didn't set the world on fire critically either and we'll see about Endless Ocean.

So it's not been the most incredible year from a critical, financial, or originality perspective.

We'll see how they fill out H2.

 

[Steve]

If the rumours are true about it having been planned for 2024 and pushed back to early 2025, then a push from early 2025 sounds pretty disastrous. Holiday '24 to March '25 is a push within the financial year for Nintendo. Pushing it out of the financial year it was planned for would be a lot more painful, and presumably upset even more launch partners.

I have to admit the long wait for this thing does make me worry they've fucked it up in some way. Just absolutely goosed it. Overcooked 'til smouldering. The Wii U of handhelds coming in hot and steamy.

But that's probably not the case.

I think a bigger fuck up would be releasing a console with no games for half a year.

Like consoles sadly always get some sort of delay, but having an extra 6 month can do wonders for some developers, also I’ll say it again, Nintendo doesn’t have the luxury of relying on third party support, since about 85% of software are sold by Nintendo first party, meanwhile the remaining 15% are third party.

Like pulling a Wii U or a Xbox series X where the games aren’t ready would be disastrous.

The switch 2 success will mostly rely on first party games, since third party can always give up developing for Nintendo system and solely focus on PC and Sony. Also most people buy a Nintendo console for Nintendo games.

Like, the GameCube and Wii U were system that Needed third party support, but didn’t sadly get. Since luckily enough the handheld and console division will be together from the very beginning which is really exciting.

Edit: forgot to mention that a march release is pretty much to the get go, since the switch was originally meant to release for a holiday 2016, but got delay. Also we still don’t know the cause for the delay, the most likely culprit would either be software not being ready or the Switch 2 launch game (3D Mario) needing more polish.

 

[chocolate_supra]

Just absolutely goosed it. Overcooked 'til smouldering.

 

[NineTailSage]

I think a bigger fuck up would be releasing a console with no games for half a year.

Like consoles sadly always get some sort of delay, but having an extra 6 month can do wonders for some developers, also I’ll say it again, Nintendo doesn’t have the luxury of relying on third party support, since about 85% of software are sold by Nintendo first party, meanwhile the remaining 15% are third party.

Like pulling a Wii U or a Xbox series X where the games aren’t ready would be disastrous.

The switch 2 success will mostly rely on first party games, since third party can always give up developing for Nintendo system and solely focus on PC and Sony. Also most people buy a Nintendo console for Nintendo games.

Like, the GameCube and Wii U were system that Needed third party support, but didn’t sadly get. Since luckily enough the handheld and console division will be together from the very beginning which is really exciting.

Edit: forgot to mention that a march release is pretty much to the get go, since the switch was originally meant to release for a holiday 2016, but got delay. Also we still don’t know the cause for the delay, the most likely culprit would either be software not being ready or the Switch 2 launch game (3D Mario) needing more polish.

This would only be true if Switch 2 wasn't launching with an evergreen title like Zelda or 3d Mario.
Also we probably can't look only at the release window for 3rd party games coming next year, as Nintendo will probably pad out the systems first few years with big games that never made it to the Switch platform.

The earlier years of Switch 2 not being so heavily stacked with 1st party games will only help 3rd party's wares sell better.
As early adopters will look for a variety of things to play on the new hardware. There's a reason that the Switch is Nintendo's only gaming device to sell 1 billion+ games and that's because an enticing hardware platform also pushed 3rd party out the door...

I guess I'm trying to say that Nintendo's older home consoles couldn't rely on 3rd party games because they were in direct competition with Sony and Microsoft. The Switch being a hybrid is still the only device out of the three to offer a mobile on the go experience. So Switch 2 versions of games like Elden Ring, Baldur's Gate 3 and Dragon's Dogma 2 would still need a window of opportunity to sell well (not being in direct competition with 1st party games).

 

[Danny]

Yep, I'm thinking the same way as you. If they don't even acknowledge the system in some form less than two weeks from now, an early 2025 launch may no longer be the safest bet out there. In such an scenario, the takeaway might be that Nintendo legitimately got attached to the Switch success and simply refuse to let it go... Whether it is because of a lack of confidence on the next launch or not is up to interpretation.

Yeah, i don't know exactly what is happening but they do give the impression about being terrified about moving away from the Switch. Maybe they are unsure if a more expensive Nintendo console can do anything near Switch numbers. I mean Nintendo is even going backwards in what they are willing to show now than previously, new gamescom like presentations to developers seems out of the question, just because they got so terrified about news leaking out about it.

I could easily see Nintendo making the mistake of delaying the Switch 2 all the way to late 2025 or early 2026, totally destroying their future prospects. Like how the Wii U was released long after the Wii stopped being a popular console.

Nintendo is a great company when it comes to being able to ride on success but they are not great at all on managing console transitions, making the whole company terrified everytime Nintendo needs to launch a new console to succeed a popular console. This leads them to cling on to the previous system instead of confidently moving on into the future. Sony on the other hand confidently said the PS5 would become more successful than the PS4, while Nintendo seems to be afraid of Switch 2 being dead on arrival.

 

[Aufhebung RPG]

This would only be true if Switch 2 wasn't launching with an evergreen title like Zelda or 3d Mario.
Also we probably can't look only at the release window for 3rd party games coming next year, as Nintendo will probably pad out the systems first few years with big games that never made it to the Switch platform.

The earlier years of Switch 2 not being so heavily stacked with 1st party games will only help 3rd party's wares sell better.
As early adopters will look for a variety of things to play on the new hardware. There's a reason that the Switch is Nintendo's only gaming device to sell 1 billion+ games and that's because an enticing hardware platform also pushed 3rd party out the door...

I guess I'm trying to say that Nintendo's older home consoles couldn't rely on 3rd party games because they were in direct competition with Sony and Microsoft. The Switch being a hybrid is still the only device out of the three to offer a mobile on the go experience. So Switch 2 versions of games like Elden Ring, Baldur's Gate 3 and Dragon's Dogma 2 would still need a window of opportunity to sell well (not being in direct competition with 1st party games).

I highly doubt that the concept of hybrid consoles will remain an exclusive Nintendo experience in the coming years, obviously we can see similar Win handhelds popping up, meaning that without a radical revolution in hardware design by Nintendo we're about to enter the era of Nintendo's heavy reliance on first-party games once again (similar to the 3DS)

It's not advisable to overestimate everything that's potentially possible about the switch2, the myths put forward under that thread about how third party games will bail out the switch2 are quite silly in my opinion, it's not 1990, the trump cards Nintendo has are and only are first party games, everything else is unreliable.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

I was thinking, what if it comes out at the very end of march 2025, like the 28th or something like that?
While Switch 2 sales themselves would have next to no impact on the FY, the announcement of the console would still have a significant impact on switch 1 sales.

Whether it's March 3 or March 28, the biggest chunk of early hardware is going to be there day 1 anyway. Buuuut it probably won't be huge. Even in 2023, Switch's Jan-Mar quarter was bigger than the March 2017 shipment.

FWIW, 3DS's quarter at Switch launch wasn't much down from previous years, but it was usually pretty low anyway.
Jan-Mar 2014: 0.59
Jan-Mar 2015: 1.65
Jan-Mar 2016: 0.91
Jan-Mar 2017: 0.82

 

[Steve]

This would only be true if Switch 2 wasn't launching with an evergreen title like Zelda or 3d Mario.
Also we probably can't look only at the release window for 3rd party games coming next year, as Nintendo will probably pad out the systems first few years with big games that never made it to the Switch platform.

The earlier years of Switch 2 not being so heavily stacked with 1st party games will only help 3rd party's wares sell better.
As early adopters will look for a variety of things to play on the new hardware. There's a reason that the Switch is Nintendo's only gaming device to sell 1 billion+ games and that's because an enticing hardware platform also pushed 3rd party out the door...

I guess I'm trying to say that Nintendo's older home consoles couldn't rely on 3rd party games because they were in direct competition with Sony and Microsoft. The Switch being a hybrid is still the only device out of the three to offer a mobile on the go experience. So Switch 2 versions of games like Elden Ring, Baldur's Gate 3 and Dragon's Dogma 2 would still need a window of opportunity to sell well (not being in direct competition with 1st party games).

That would be the case, until Sony and Microsoft releases their very own hybrid consoles, With it probably being cloud based.

I see your point, but relying on third party is something that can bite them if their overly reliant, since let's remember we sadly still don't know the quality of these ports. Like Baldur gate 3 on Xbox had cloud saving issues where the player profile save got deleted, the switch got numerous of badly optimized ports one example being the batman trilogy. Plus it's gonna be quite difficult convincing consumers on buying a lesser quality port, which they've already bought on a Ps5 or Pc.
I'm extreamely optimistic with the Indie scene for the Switch 2.

In my opinion the Switch having a good first year of first party games, will be crucial for their success.

But, it's me being pessimistic because the third party support for the switch has been good, but not great. Hell, Kingdom hearts got a cloud based version of 1+2 which are 20 year old games.

 

[Koren Lesthe]

they can't move the launch date so easily. if they penned it for March 2025, suppliers would probably be prepping to move parts at this point. they stop that, there are repercussions.

Imagine Nintendo dropping a "Sega e3 1995" in the next General Direct.

 

[Lancelot]

I could easily see Nintendo making the mistake of delaying the Switch 2 all the way to late 2025 or early 2026, totally destroying their future prospects. Like how the Wii U was released long after the Wii stopped being a popular console.

Let's hope this totally isn't the case but I get it, the wait has been extremely long and not a single thing has been announced about it. Nintendo is the only one consistently pulling these wary stunts and investor shenanigans, you don't see that with any other hardware manufacturer... So yeah, that's a good reason to get the impression something can't be right. Luckily it won't be long before we have to revisit this topic better informed, for better or worse.

 

[Dimensio]

Pokemon is gonna be the franchise that they ride this holiday in my opinion.

Pokémon ZA is already confirmed for 2025, If there was a Pokémon game slated for holiday 2024 They would have announced it already.

Whether it's March 3 or March 28, the biggest chunk of early hardware is going to be there day 1 anyway. Buuuut it probably won't be huge. Even in 2023, Switch's Jan-Mar quarter was bigger than the March 2017 shipment.

FWIW, 3DS's quarter at Switch launch wasn't much down from previous years, but it was usually pretty low anyway.
Jan-Mar 2014: 0.59
Jan-Mar 2015: 1.65
Jan-Mar 2016: 0.91
Jan-Mar 2017: 0.82

The Switch sold 2.74 millions in March 2017 alone. If the Switch 2 Launched at the beginning of March I would expect 2-3 millions units by the end of the month.
But if it launched on something like 28th It would be something like 300k-400k at best, huge difference.

 

[TomNookYankees]

This is purely on public release schedule. We also said this last June and then Nintendo filled the rest of the year in a single Direct.

The difference is that there was never any news story of nintendo having to tell third parties that they needed to delay Switch 2 release from 2023 to 2024. Nintendo was never really planning on releasing Switch 2 in 2023 which meant they had always planned to have Switch 1 games to accommodate 2023.

The same cannot be said for 2024. It's obvious that nearly all of Nintendo's dev teams are now focused on Switch 2 development and it shows from how lacking things have been on the Switch 1 lately and the reason that the delay to 2025 news came out was because Nintendo had to inform every major third party about the delay, making the leaks inevitable.

 

[neon]

sorry for the trouble but could i get a quick summary of whats been going on in the thread recently?
haven't checked in ages and now seeing all this rumbling about the seventh and round power supplies

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

sorry for the trouble but could i get a quick summary of whats been going on in the thread recently?
haven't checked in ages and now seeing all this rumbling about the seventh and round power supplies

Nothing has happened in a while.

This needs to be announced within the next three weeks or it will probably be April 2025 or later as a release so there's some anxiety going around.

 

[Concernt]

sorry for the trouble but could i get a quick summary of whats been going on in the thread recently?
haven't checked in ages and now seeing all this rumbling about the seventh and round power supplies

 

[Onetendo]

Maybe the Switch 2 will be launched on March 10 (MAR10 Day) along with a new big Mario game.

 

[Giancarlo]

I think a bigger fuck up would be releasing a console with no games for half a year.

Like consoles sadly always get some sort of delay, but having an extra 6 month can do wonders for some developers, also I’ll say it again, Nintendo doesn’t have the luxury of relying on third party support, since about 85% of software are sold by Nintendo first party, meanwhile the remaining 15% are third party.

Like pulling a Wii U or a Xbox series X where the games aren’t ready would be disastrous.

The switch 2 success will mostly rely on first party games, since third party can always give up developing for Nintendo system and solely focus on PC and Sony. Also most people buy a Nintendo console for Nintendo games.

Like, the GameCube and Wii U were system that Needed third party support, but didn’t sadly get. Since luckily enough the handheld and console division will be together from the very beginning which is really exciting.

Edit: forgot to mention that a march release is pretty much to the get go, since the switch was originally meant to release for a holiday 2016, but got delay. Also we still don’t know the cause for the delay, the most likely culprit would either be software not being ready or the Switch 2 launch game (3D Mario) needing more polish.

Switch sucessor might be delayed, because Nintendo want a constant cadence of heavy hitters games(kinda similar of what they did with Switch launch)

 

[oldpuck]

Yep, I'm thinking the same way as you. If they don't even acknowledge the system in some form less than two weeks from now, an early 2025 launch may no longer be the safest bet out there. In such an scenario, the takeaway might be that Nintendo legitimately got attached to the Switch success and simply refuse to let it go... Whether it is because of a lack of confidence on the next launch or not is up to interpretation.

Yeah, i don't know exactly what is happening but they do give the impression about being terrified about moving away from the Switch. Maybe they are unsure if a more expensive Nintendo console can do anything near Switch numbers. I mean Nintendo is even going backwards in what they are willing to show now than previously, new gamescom like presentations to developers seems out of the question, just because they got so terrified about news leaking out about it.

I am sure they are super nervous about moving on from the Switch. But if they were really attached to riding the Switch out as long as possible, then 2024 would have a lot more games. Spreading out the last dregs of the Switch library probably hurts hardware sales, so I don't buy the idea that it was a last minute decision to squeeze the most out of the Switch.

I think it's more likely that what's been stated is fact - the launch of the system isn't ready for software reasons, and Nintendo would rather spread out the last 8 switch games to keep the platform alive, and then launch strong in March, than pack in 8 months of mostly remakes, launch Switch 2 in the holiday, then crater in 2025.

Imagine if the Mini in February was slightly different. All the games are the same, but it's not called a Mini. Endless Ocean is set for April, not May, filling an empty month. Dark Moon is added, dated for May instead, and Paper Mario was dated for June. Just a slight rebranding, plus accelerating a few titles by a month. I think you'd get better Switch hardware sales out of more aggressive pushing, and engagement would stay higher.

Nintendo could spend July marketing their new hardware. Put a small game in August, and then dump the last of the NSO games in the usual September slot, just to keep engagement up, Big Ass Launch Title (3d mario?) and new hardware in October, then Prime 4 as the cross-gen "give early adopters something big to play after Mario, give Switch owners one last big game."

This is really good momentum, and you don't have to imagine anything unannounced except for "small game" (which could be the heavily rumored Fire Emblem remake) and Big Launch Title, a game we know has to exist. Nintendo tends to bank games, so the more aggressive schedule doesn't seem undoable.

It really feels like that was (roughly) the planned 2024. But if you push Switch 2 out to March without reshuffling the remaining dates, you get an absolute crater in the second half of the year. And if you did run this year, but didn't have any solid games for the first half of 2025, because you're behind, you'd get a crater then.

That's why I really buy this "we just didn't have the launch year rock solid yet, so we're spreading out 2024 to keep what little momentum we can" theory.

 

[Lugia667]

"Switch 2 is gonna be the next Wii U because it took too long" makes no sense. By that logic the GBA should have failed as well since the Game Boy was out for even longer. Heck they flat out cancelled a whole successor during that time as well

 

[KarlRemarx]

It just seems weird to mislead investors by not even mentioning plans to release new hardware in the next fiscal year.

What sales are there to protect? They have nothing this year anyway because everything is being made for the Switch 2. If anything they lose out by not revealing hardware because that means no third party will announce anything for the future Nintendo system, while announcing coming hardware now lets third party developers mention that they are planning releasing their coming games also for Nintendo's next system. By not announcing coming hardware, only PS and Xbox gets positive news about coming releases while Nintendo's future just seems totally void of any excitement due to having nothing to announce at all.

I'm fairly certain that if they don't mention coming hardware to investors soon it just means that Nintendo is planning to release new hardware late 2025, early 2026. Rather than them trying to protect a holiday season where their sales will collapse anyway because of nothing exciting coming out anyway except ports of old games.

Me: They can make a form of words about new hardware without getting into specifics, which will not mislead investors.
You: It just seems weird to mislead investors.

Me: People shouldn't jump to conclusions like they do every year before a Spring Direct actually rounds out the schedule for this year
You: They have nothing this year

Yeah, i don't know exactly what is happening but they do give the impression about being terrified about moving away from the Switch. Maybe they are unsure if a more expensive Nintendo console can do anything near Switch numbers. I mean Nintendo is even going backwards in what they are willing to show now than previously, new gamescom like presentations to developers seems out of the question, just because they got so terrified about news leaking out about it.

I could easily see Nintendo making the mistake of delaying the Switch 2 all the way to late 2025 or early 2026, totally destroying their future prospects. Like how the Wii U was released long after the Wii stopped being a popular console.

Nintendo is a great company when it comes to being able to ride on success but they are not great at all on managing console transitions, making the whole company terrified everytime Nintendo needs to launch a new console to succeed a popular console. This leads them to cling on to the previous system instead of confidently moving on into the future. Sony on the other hand confidently said the PS5 would become more successful than the PS4, while Nintendo seems to be afraid of Switch 2 being dead on arrival.

You: They have nothing this year, everything is being made for the Switch 2
Also You: They're terrified of moving away from the Switch

I've said it before and I'll say it again: your sources for the "Nintendo is afraid to move on" are: literally 1 reported delay from one side of Christmas 2024 to the other, and non-attendance at a consumer trade show, 10+ years after Nintendo led the entire industry away from consumer trade shows as a major marketing exercise. This year's Gamescom was never going to have a Nintendo presence, because if anything the original 2024 release date would have made it even more impossible for their studios to dick around making showfloor demos for an event that will receive a single-digit fraction of the attention the Switch 2 Direct will.

 

[LiC]

Nintendo's financial disclosures and investor meetings have such an incredible amount of uninformed assumptions and colloquial misinformation surrounding them. It's especially weird when everyone is familiar with how secretive Nintendo is, and how their PR routinely denies press reports that end up confirmed a month later, yet they also think there's One Weird Trick Investors Can Use To Reveal New Hardware (Nintendo HATES Them!).

Nintendo is required to disclose their financial performance, and forecast the next year's, according to GAAP. They are not required to divulge what products they'll be launching or when, even if one of those products is making up part of their forecast. If they don't announce/reveal the hardware in the next two weeks, they will not mention it on May 7th. And they won't announce/reveal it in the next two weeks because of May 7th, either.

I really do believe that people only hang off investor meetings and have mistaken expectations of what Nintendo is required to say in them just because they're desperate for news and want to find that "one weird trick" that will force Nintendo to give away the information that we want to hear. All the "lying to investors" nonsense and narratives about how they "have to" say something just doesn't hold up to scrutiny if you look at the historical record, or know what a company is actually required to disclose and what they aren't.

 

[Concernt]

It's not entirely irrelevant that Nintendo has somewhat of a history of announcing a new device during or briefly before investor calls, come to think of it.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Nintendo's financial disclosures and investor meetings have such an incredible amount of uninformed assumptions and colloquial misinformation surrounding them. It's especially weird when everyone is familiar with how secretive Nintendo is, and how their PR routinely denies press reports that end up confirmed a month later, yet they also think there's One Weird Trick Investors Can Use To Reveal New Hardware (Nintendo HATES Them!).

Nintendo is required to disclose their financial performance, and forecast the next year's, according to GAAP. They are not required to divulge what products they'll be launching or when, even if one of those products is making up part of their forecast. If they don't announce/reveal the hardware in the next two weeks, they will not mention it on May 7th. And they won't announce/reveal it in the next two weeks because of May 7th, either.

I really do believe that people only hang off investor meetings and have mistaken expectations of what Nintendo is required to say in them just because they're desperate for news and want to find that "one weird trick" that will force Nintendo to give away the information that we want to hear. All the "lying to investors" nonsense and narratives about how they "have to" say something just doesn't hold up to scrutiny if you look at the historical record, or know what a company is actually required to disclose and what they aren't.

Simply refusing to acknowledge your system coming out in 10 months in what otherwise will probably be a relatively dire year from a revenue perspective (last year had TotK and Mario Wonder, the year before had Splatoon 3 and Pokemon SV, two years prior had two Pokemon games and Mario Party, three years ago had the COVID boost, four years ago had LM3 and Pokemon SS and Animal Crossing, five years ago had Smash and Pokemon and Mario Party....)

... Why would you do that, lol.

If Nintendo doesn't mention the system before the meeting, they'll be projecting pretty bad software and hardware numbers with almost no guidance on what's coming. Why risk a stock hit if you're confident the system will release before April 2025?

 

[Soralink91]

Simply refusing to acknowledge your system coming out in 10 months in what otherwise will probably be a relatively dire year from a revenue perspective (last year had TotK and Mario Wonder, the year before had Splatoon 3 and Pokemon SV, two years prior had two Pokemon games and Mario Party, three years ago had the COVID boost, four years ago had LM3 and Pokemon SS and Animal Crossing, five years ago had Smash and Pokemon and Mario Party....)

... Why would you do that, lol.

If Nintendo doesn't mention the system before the meeting, they'll be projecting pretty bad software and hardware numbers with almost no guidance on what's coming. Why risk a stock hit if you're confident the system will release before April 2025?

The why is the golden question. Because when you lay it out logically it makes sense for Nintendo to start talking about the next generation. Lic is absolutely correct that Nintendo does not have to say anything about upcoming hardware if they don't want to. The real question is why would they be so secretive. I'm sure Nintendo has its reasons, but we may never know.

 

[ItsukaKasuga]

Simply refusing to acknowledge your system coming out in 10 months in what otherwise will probably be a relatively dire year from a revenue perspective (last year had TotK and Mario Wonder, the year before had Splatoon 3 and Pokemon SV, two years prior had two Pokemon games and Mario Party, three years ago had the COVID boost, four years ago had LM3 and Pokemon SS and Animal Crossing, five years ago had Smash and Pokemon and Mario Party....)

... Why would you do that, lol.

If Nintendo doesn't mention the system before the meeting, they'll be projecting pretty bad software and hardware numbers with almost no guidance on what's coming. Why risk a stock hit if you're confident the system will release before April 2025?

i mean, we have been in this thing time and time again, is true that they probably will release less games than previous years but we still dont have the entire picture of what is their full schedule for this year, last year i remember the amount of news and articles about nintendo not having anything after TOK, then it comes the july and september direct and they fill the entire year out of games.

Some might like it, others dont but remake and remaster are still games, so as long as nintendo can release quality games regardless being new games or rematers/remakes they will be fine until next year. Specially if the new pokemon game comes in january or something like arceus did back then.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

i mean, we have been in this thing time and time again, is true that they probably will release less games than previous years but we still dont have the entire picture of what is their full schedule for this year, last year i remember the amount of news and articles about nintendo not having anything after TOK, then it comes the july and september direct and they fill the entire year out of games.

Some might like it, others dont but remake and remaster are still games, so as long as nintendo can release quality games regardless being new games or rematers/remakes they will be fine until next year. Specially if the new pokemon game comes in january or something like arceus did back then.

I mean, in general yes, but ZA has no release window other than 2025, we may get no Pokemon this year (the first time no game or DLC has happened since 2015), and no game is really "due" like 2D Mario was last year.

Well... Like three games are pretty much "due" based on development timing and those are:

Metroid Prime 4
2D EPD Tokyo game
Next Mario Party

The question becomes whether Nintendo would actually release those games on Switch 1 alone instead of being on Switch 2 when the Switch 2 is rumored to be delayed because Nintendo was unhappy with the launch window lineup.

Mario Party launching on Switch 1 alone instead of cross-gen (or exclusive) on Switch 2 would also probably be pretty bad for the legs of this Mario Party game.

And if you take Mario Party out of the equation, Prime 4 and DKC6/Yoshi's Island 2/something else still probably have a combined ceiling of 15-20m (being very optimistic) and that's assuming BOTH release this fiscal year.

And that's still a pretty small year for Nintendo relatively.

 

[NineTailSage]

I highly doubt that the concept of hybrid consoles will remain an exclusive Nintendo experience in the coming years, obviously we can see similar Win handhelds popping up, meaning that without a radical revolution in hardware design by Nintendo we're about to enter the era of Nintendo's heavy reliance on first-party games once again (similar to the 3DS)

It's not advisable to overestimate everything that's potentially possible about the switch2, the myths put forward under that thread about how third party games will bail out the switch2 are quite silly in my opinion, it's not 1990, the trump cards Nintendo has are and only are first party games, everything else is unreliable.

It will remain this way until we know what Sony and Microsoft are doing next-gen, which could be 2026-2028...
Even still I don't expect a Microsoft handheld to disrupt how the Switch 2 will sell worldwide. No one is overestimating anything, the current Switch is the blueprint of how things will go with Switch 2.

How do we know you say?
Because these AAA 3rd party games aren't selling enough on PS5 and Series X. So these companies will be excited to have another player base to sell to. Nintendo having more big budget 3rd party games allow them to spread out their own 1st party games equally throughout the systems life.

That would be the case, until Sony and Microsoft releases their very own hybrid consoles, With it probably being cloud based.

I see your point, but relying on third party is something that can bite them if their overly reliant, since let's remember we sadly still don't know the quality of these ports. Like Baldur gate 3 on Xbox had cloud saving issues where the player profile save got deleted, the switch got numerous of badly optimized ports one example being the batman trilogy. Plus it's gonna be quite difficult convincing consumers on buying a lesser quality port, which they've already bought on a Ps5 or Pc.
I'm extreamely optimistic with the Indie scene for the Switch 2.

In my opinion the Switch having a good first year of first party games, will be crucial for their success.

But, it's me being pessimistic because the third party support for the switch has been good, but not great. Hell, Kingdom hearts got a cloud based version of 1+2 which are 20 year old games.

Nintendo will never solely rely on 3rd party, as heavy as both Sony and Microsoft do.

I also don't think whatever Sony or Microsoft offer will be directly competitive to Switch 2.
Nintendo are all in on the Switch and both Sony and Microsoft will have to double their development efforts to create games for 2 different level of performance metrics (handheld vs console).

 

[KarlRemarx]

The why is the golden question. Because when you lay it out logically it makes sense for Nintendo to start talking about the next generation. Lic is absolutely correct that Nintendo does not have to say anything about upcoming hardware if they don't want to. The real question is why would they be so secretive. I'm sure Nintendo has its reasons, but we may never know.

"Why would a company want to reveal their next flagship product on their own terms?" answers itself. Even moreso when you factor in their stated approach for years now has been to narrow the time between announcing a product and releasing it.

Simply refusing to acknowledge your system coming out in 10 months in what otherwise will probably be a relatively dire year from a revenue perspective (last year had TotK and Mario Wonder, the year before had Splatoon 3 and Pokemon SV, two years prior had two Pokemon games and Mario Party, three years ago had the COVID boost, four years ago had LM3 and Pokemon SS and Animal Crossing, five years ago had Smash and Pokemon and Mario Party....)

... Why would you do that, lol.

If Nintendo doesn't mention the system before the meeting, they'll be projecting pretty bad software and hardware numbers with almost no guidance on what's coming. Why risk a stock hit if you're confident the system will release before April 2025?

What exactly is the scientifically correct number of months from announcement to release? How many additional Switch 2 launch sales will be generated by announcing it earlier? Why exactly do short-term stock fluctuations matter whenever they clearly believe (and have been proven right) they can deliver better business performance with a tighter turnaround from announcement to release?

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

"Why would a company want to reveal their next flagship product on their own terms?" answers itself. Even moreso when you factor in their stated approach for years now has been to narrow the time between announcing a product and releasing it.


What exactly is the scientifically correct number of months from announcement to release? How many additional Switch 2 launch sales will be generated by announcing it earlier? Why exactly do short-term stock fluctuations matter whenever they clearly believe (and have been proven right) they can deliver better business performance with a tighter turnaround from announcement to release?

If Nintendo does not announce the Switch 2 in the next few weeks.

1. They go to their next year fiscal year projections with four total announced titles (two of which are remakes, the other two have no footage or release windows) and their worst projections in 7 years and no guidance about the future of the company which seems pointlessly bad if your next big console release is coming very soon.

2. They miss being mentioned in pretty much every announcement during pseudo e3.

Seems pretty pointless and only having negatives but idk.

 

[Steve]

Nintendo will confirm the existence of the Switch 2 in April 28th. With a little birthday luck, anything is possible.

 

[Soralink91]

If Nintendo does not announce the Switch 2 in the next few weeks.

1. They go to their next year fiscal year projections with four total announced titles (two of which are remakes, the other two have no footage or release windows) and their worst projections in 7 years and no guidance about the future of the company which seems pointlessly bad if your next big console release is coming very soon.

2. They miss being mentioned in pretty much every announcement during pseudo e3.

Seems pretty pointless and only having negatives but idk.

It would be nice if 3rd party companies could have Nintendo included in their summer presentations.

 

[KarlRemarx]

If Nintendo does not announce the Switch 2 in the next few weeks.

1. They go to their next year fiscal year projections with four total announced titles (two of which are remakes, the other two have no footage or release windows) and their worst projections in 7 years and no guidance about the future of the company which seems pointlessly bad if your next big console release is coming very soon.

2. They miss being mentioned in pretty much every announcement during pseudo e3.

Seems pretty pointless and only having negatives but idk.

Furukawa already said the Switch will be the company's main business in 2024, and that they'll give future plans at the next earnings briefing. There will also likely be a Direct ahead of that briefing. So claiming they're going to offer no guidance about the future of the company is simply untrue, until we reach a hypothetical May 8th where no Direct has materialised and Furukawa has spent the previous day stonewalling everyone at the earnings briefing for some inexplicable and unprecedented reason, after having previously said he'd give guidance.

As for "pseudo-E3" - it's as meaningless as the name implies, given that the real E3 was completely displaced by the Direct format. Whatever AAA 3rd party support Nintendo receives will reach more eyeballs in Switch 2's introductory Directs than Summer Games Fest.

 

[Raccoon]

There will also likely be a Direct ahead of that briefing.

current rumors say this isn't happening fwiw

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

There’s no real suggestion of a Direct in April and very little chance of one first week of May.

 

[Onetendo]

Nintendo Direct ≠ Nintendo Switch 2 Presentation

 

[Paxie]

The hardware itself is up in the air, but at this point Nintendo can't keep playing chicken with the announcement without setting bridges on fire. E3 (RIP) season is coming up. Devs want to talk about their games. If they still try to ignore it next month, I can't imagine third parties would be happy to be early supporters again.

 

[SoldierDelta]

The hardware itself is up in the air, but at this point Nintendo can't keep playing chicken with the announcement without setting bridges on fire. E3 (RIP) season is coming up. Devs want to talk about their games. If they still try to ignore it next month, I can't imagine third parties would be happy to be early supporters again.

I actually kinda disagree about the hardware remark, but only because this is a very strange situation. We roughly know what we're getting in terms of hardware thanks to the Nvidia leak, even if there's skepticism and disagreement in "how powerful" it will be at launch (basically anywhere between Base PS4 and Series S). Nintendo being unpredictable in terms of general announcements and reveals is the strange part.

The best way I can describe it is that we know what the product will roughly be and when the device will be released, but the line connecting the two is practically invisible. It's kinda annoying. For comparison's sake, the past three home consoles were at least revealed a fair bit in advance either out of obligation or through intended planning. Project Revolution and Wii U were both revealed a 1-2 years before they released, the NX was known for years and we knew we were getting news some point in 2016 with a release date in 2017, the Switch 2... we don't even know it's damn codename.

That said, I do agree with the point that third parties are likely being antsy about wanting to reveal what they're cooking for the switch 2, either in terms of ports or new games. Having a new game that's "Releasing on the next-gen system" is a bit selling point, even if it's for a Nintendo system. On the other hand though, Nintendo tends to reveal third-party stuff alongside their big console announcement showcase events, like with the Wii U's E3 2011 conference or the Switch's 2017 Presentation. We did have smaller stuff prior to the Switch Presentation 2017 like Just Dance and Sonic Forces getting an "NX" release, but that was about it.

Basically, the key takeaway from this post is "What the fuck are you doing Nintendo?"