StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (New Staff Post, Please read)

[kingman]

I was NOT expecting to see a reference to that old college game design course commercial here.

And I'm glad that it didn't happen so long ago that nobody remembers that reference.

 

[ILikeFeet]

the worst part about knowing stuff you're not supposed to know (drake in general, from leakers and data theft) is that every day of no news, it's proof of there being a problem

 

[Rogue Agent]

Nintendo's financial disclosures and investor meetings have such an incredible amount of uninformed assumptions and colloquial misinformation surrounding them. It's especially weird when everyone is familiar with how secretive Nintendo is, and how their PR routinely denies press reports that end up confirmed a month later, yet they also think there's One Weird Trick Investors Can Use To Reveal New Hardware (Nintendo HATES Them!).

Nintendo is required to disclose their financial performance, and forecast the next year's, according to GAAP. They are not required to divulge what products they'll be launching or when, even if one of those products is making up part of their forecast. If they don't announce/reveal the hardware in the next two weeks, they will not mention it on May 7th. And they won't announce/reveal it in the next two weeks because of May 7th, either.

I really do believe that people only hang off investor meetings and have mistaken expectations of what Nintendo is required to say in them just because they're desperate for news and want to find that "one weird trick" that will force Nintendo to give away the information that we want to hear. All the "lying to investors" nonsense and narratives about how they "have to" say something just doesn't hold up to scrutiny if you look at the historical record, or know what a company is actually required to disclose and what they aren't.

I was always confused by this. Thanks for clearing it up.

 

[navierStokes]

the worst part about knowing stuff you're not supposed to know (drake in general, from leakers and data theft) is that every day of no news, it's proof of there being a problem

I’m not sure what you mean, because I don’t think there’s any proof, indicating a problem, because then I would like to know; what is the problem .

 

[lexony]

current rumors say this isn't happening fwiw

But my personal bias says there has to be!

 

[Kevin]

To be blunt, I really really really don't think Nintendo wants to move onto next gen game development. I don't think there is a mystery here. Nintendo has been stalling evolving their graphics for many years now and we are seeing how game companies are struggling with ballooning budgets, failing companies, etc. I think Nintendo decided to drag out the Switch lifespan as long as they can get away with even if their fans are left disappointed for years.

I also say this every single year, people get mad and then I'm proven right. A Switch successor could very well not happen in 2025 either. I mean every year we were suppose to get something according to insiders and wishful thinking and the evidence for a 2025 launch really isn't lighting the world on fire either. So far it's "wishful thinking" territory. Now don't get me wrong, I still think there is a likelihood of a new Nintendo console launching next year but honestly I would more or less base that on the fact the Switch is really freakin old and a lot of folks are moving on. Something will have to force Nintendo's hand eventually. I feel like every major conversation surrounding the Switch these days is a negative one. Poor graphics, poor framerates, less and less third party support, shoddy ports, big games we want on Switch that can't happen due to aged hardware, a disappointing game lineup from Nintendo, the list goes on.

The Switch was such a cool system and we were all pretty much excited for it all those years back but I don't think anyone just expected Nintendo to just basically not move on. I haven't turned my Switch on at all this year but my PS5 is certainly getting a lot of love. I would be there day one of Nintendo eventually releases something new. Imagine if Apple stopped updating their iPhones seven+ years ago. It is a damn shame because I love Nintendo's IP but playing Switch on my nice 4K OLED screen is just kind of not a great experience. Especially for the bigger games and third party games.

Honestly I hope Nintendo finally addresses the Switch 2 at the Investor Meeting and by that I mean at least give us a freakin hint as to when we might actually learn something about it because we are in year eight now and Nintendo is basically acting like the Switch really is it. On the bright side, Nintendo is out there saving my wallet a lot of money these days.

 

[Aufhebung RPG]

Lic is correct, there are so many statements made under that thread based on unofficial rumors of pre-determined mental expectations that I just don't see the point of inflicting all sorts of alarmist speculation on a new console that is theoretically still close to a year away from a possible release.

So the problem remains that a significant number of people are relying on completely unconfirmed speculation of any kind for Nintendo as well as past practice (Satoru Iwata-era release rhythms), and yet back at the end of February, Luigiblood tweeted news that both the 3DS and the NS itself had suffered from a delay of more than a quarter in release back in the day, and the threadThe sheer amount of people still obsessing over this pointless issue underneath it is mind-boggling.

 

[ziggyrivers]

To be blunt, I really really really don't think Nintendo wants to move onto next gen game development. I don't think there is a mystery here. Nintendo has been stalling evolving their graphics for many years now and we are seeing how game companies are struggling with ballooning budgets, failing companies, etc. I think Nintendo decided to drag out the Switch lifespan as long as they can get away with even if their fans are left disappointed for years.

I also say this every single year, people get mad and then I'm proven right. A Switch successor could very well not happen in 2025 either. I mean every year we were suppose to get something according to insiders and wishful thinking and the evidence for a 2025 launch really isn't lighting the world on fire either. So far it's "wishful thinking" territory. Now don't get me wrong, I still think there is a likelihood of a new Nintendo console launching next year but honestly I would more or less base that on the fact the Switch is really freakin old and a lot of folks are moving on. Something will have to force Nintendo's hand eventually. I feel like every major conversation surrounding the Switch these days is a negative one. Poor graphics, poor framerates, less and less third party support, shoddy ports, big games we want on Switch that can't happen due to aged hardware, a disappointing game lineup from Nintendo, the list goes on.

The Switch was such a cool system and we were all pretty much excited for it all those years back but I don't think anyone just expected Nintendo to just basically not move on. I haven't turned my Switch on at all this year but my PS5 is certainly getting a lot of love. I would be there day one of Nintendo eventually releases something new. Imagine if Apple stopped updating their iPhones seven+ years ago. It is a damn shame because I love Nintendo's IP but playing Switch on my nice 4K OLED screen is just kind of not a great experience. Especially for the bigger games and third party games.

Honestly I hope Nintendo finally addresses the Switch 2 at the Investor Meeting and by that I mean at least give us a freakin hint as to when we might actually learn something about it because we are in year eight now and Nintendo is basically acting like the Switch really is it. On the bright side, Nintendo is out there saving my wallet a lot of money these days.

I doubt Nintendo sat on themselves for eight straight years and have been spending on Research & Development “just because” and have hired personnel, rented space and are constructing space with no successor in mind. Nevermind lending their IPs to more 3rd Parties for the fun of it.

Nintendo, like during the Wii U era department fusion, has been prepping themselves to finally embrace 4k, not because of the graphics race, but because they need to.

And they’re still doing it as they always done: at their own pace.

 

[Giancarlo]

It would be nice if 3rd party companies could have Nintendo included in their summer presentations.

third-parties will only reveal they are working on Switch sucessor games, ounce Nintendo reveal the console itself, they are problaby under heavy NDA, that forbit them for stating this third-party is working on game Y and this game will be a launch window game

 

[Kevin]

I doubt Nintendo sat on themselves for eight straight years and have been spending on Research & Development “just because” and have hired personnel, rented space and are constructing space with no successor in mind. Nevermind lending their IPs to more 3rd Parties for the fun of it.

Nintendo, like during the Wii U era department fusion, has been prepping themselves to finally embrace 4k, not because of the graphics race, but because they need to.

And they’re still doing it as they always done: at their own pace.

The plan was probably always 8+ years. So they may not have delayed anything but the plan was probably always to just not release anything until year 8 or later of the Switch. Either that or they are having some really bad issues with the successor. Either way the Switch ran it's course and so far we have yet to move on. Reasons unknown.

 

[Aufhebung RPG]

To be blunt, I really really really don't think Nintendo wants to move onto next gen game development. I don't think there is a mystery here. Nintendo has been stalling evolving their graphics for many years now and we are seeing how game companies are struggling with ballooning budgets, failing companies, etc. I think Nintendo decided to drag out the Switch lifespan as long as they can get away with even if their fans are left disappointed for years.

I also say this every single year, people get mad and then I'm proven right. A Switch successor could very well not happen in 2025 either. I mean every year we were suppose to get something according to insiders and wishful thinking and the evidence for a 2025 launch really isn't lighting the world on fire either. So far it's "wishful thinking" territory. Now don't get me wrong, I still think there is a likelihood of a new Nintendo console launching next year but honestly I would more or less base that on the fact the Switch is really freakin old and a lot of folks are moving on. Something will have to force Nintendo's hand eventually. I feel like every major conversation surrounding the Switch these days is a negative one. Poor graphics, poor framerates, less and less third party support, shoddy ports, big games we want on Switch that can't happen due to aged hardware, a disappointing game lineup from Nintendo, the list goes on.

The Switch was such a cool system and we were all pretty much excited for it all those years back but I don't think anyone just expected Nintendo to just basically not move on. I haven't turned my Switch on at all this year but my PS5 is certainly getting a lot of love. I would be there day one of Nintendo eventually releases something new. Imagine if Apple stopped updating their iPhones seven+ years ago. It is a damn shame because I love Nintendo's IP but playing Switch on my nice 4K OLED screen is just kind of not a great experience. Especially for the bigger games and third party games.

Honestly I hope Nintendo finally addresses the Switch 2 at the Investor Meeting and by that I mean at least give us a freakin hint as to when we might actually learn something about it because we are in year eight now and Nintendo is basically acting like the Switch really is it. On the bright side, Nintendo is out there saving my wallet a lot of money these days.

Again, the graphics race has dragged a large number of companies into an extremely scary abyss, and Nintendo's decision not to invest too much in graphics technology was absolutely correct, ditto the fact that they spent a lot of time developing top-of-the-line physical interactions as well as stylized rendering methods.

 

[Giancarlo]

To be blunt, I really really really don't think Nintendo wants to move onto next gen game development. I don't think there is a mystery here. Nintendo has been stalling evolving their graphics for many years now and we are seeing how game companies are struggling with ballooning budgets, failing companies, etc. I think Nintendo decided to drag out the Switch lifespan as long as they can get away with even if their fans are left disappointed for years.

I also say this every single year, people get mad and then I'm proven right. A Switch successor could very well not happen in 2025 either. I mean every year we were suppose to get something according to insiders and wishful thinking and the evidence for a 2025 launch really isn't lighting the world on fire either. So far it's "wishful thinking" territory. Now don't get me wrong, I still think there is a likelihood of a new Nintendo console launching next year but honestly I would more or less base that on the fact the Switch is really freakin old and a lot of folks are moving on. Something will have to force Nintendo's hand eventually. I feel like every major conversation surrounding the Switch these days is a negative one. Poor graphics, poor framerates, less and less third party support, shoddy ports, big games we want on Switch that can't happen due to aged hardware, a disappointing game lineup from Nintendo, the list goes on.

The Switch was such a cool system and we were all pretty much excited for it all those years back but I don't think anyone just expected Nintendo to just basically not move on. I haven't turned my Switch on at all this year but my PS5 is certainly getting a lot of love. I would be there day one of Nintendo eventually releases something new. Imagine if Apple stopped updating their iPhones seven+ years ago. It is a damn shame because I love Nintendo's IP but playing Switch on my nice 4K OLED screen is just kind of not a great experience. Especially for the bigger games and third party games.

Honestly I hope Nintendo finally addresses the Switch 2 at the Investor Meeting and by that I mean at least give us a freakin hint as to when we might actually learn something about it because we are in year eight now and Nintendo is basically acting like the Switch really is it. On the bright side, Nintendo is out there saving my wallet a lot of money these days.

why the hurry on Nintendo launching a new next gen console? Nintendo Switch is still selling well, it would be imprudent of Nintendo in launching a successor to Switch and negatively impact it sales, do we really want Nintendo to cut short Switch lifecycle just to please very few people? and theres a risk developing the next 3D Mario/Legend of Zelda might be too much for Nintendo, i cant expect Nintendo be so willing to spent $100 milions or more on a game.

 

[Kevin]

Again, the graphics race has dragged a large number of companies into an extremely scary abyss, and Nintendo's decision not to invest too much in graphics technology was absolutely correct, ditto the fact that they spent a lot of time developing top-of-the-line physical interactions as well as stylized rendering methods.

I'm just citing that as my reason why I think we haven't gotten a Switch successor yet.

why the hurry on Nintendo launching a new next gen console? Nintendo Switch is still selling well, it would be imprudent of Nintendo in launching a successor to Switch and negatively impact it sales, do we really want Nintendo to cut short Switch lifecycle just to please very few people?

It's basically the longest running console at this point. I don't think releasing a successor after 8+ years (assuming a 2025 release) is cutting the Switch lifespan short. Switch is also not selling well in North America from what I can tell (still sells in Japan, a much smaller market). Really guys, it's ok to want to move on.

 

[Aufhebung RPG]

why the hurry on Nintendo launching a new next gen console? Nintendo Switch is still selling well, it would be imprudent of Nintendo in launching a successor to Switch and negatively impact it sales, do we really want Nintendo to cut short Switch lifecycle just to please very few people? and theres a risk developing the next 3D Mario/Legend of Zelda might be too much for Nintendo, i cant expect Nintendo be so willing to spent $100 milions or more on a game.

The fact that the development costs for the next Legend of Zelda will skyrocket to over $100 million anyway is not a risk, as Nintendo has and has only had this one game in mega-development internally.

 

[Lugia667]

"Alot of people are moving on" is a sure a statement huh? Especially when the Switch is still outselling the Series X consistently (Which IS partially Microsoft's fault).

You can want next system without making generalizations like that

 

[ziggyrivers]

The plan was probably always 8+ years. So they may not have delayed anything but the plan was probably always to just not release anything until year 8 or later of the Switch. Either that or they are having some really bad issues with the successor. Either way the Switch ran it's course and so far we have yet to move on. Reasons unknown.

I presume the plan was six years, but due to COVID boost, they decided they could extend it to seven.

But with whatever happened with the successor, they’re stretching it to eight.

If anything, I think Nintendo could def pull another 7-8 years before a Switch 3. Especially since the 2 won’t sell as much as the one

 

[Kevin]

I presume the plan was six years, but due to COVID boost, they decided they could extend it to seven.

But with whatever happened with the successor, they’re stretching it to eight.

If anything, I think Nintendo could def pull another 7-8 years before a Switch 3. Especially since the 2 won’t sell as much as the one

I think if the Switch successor is indeed targeting a (let's say) March 2025 launch then I feel like we should start hearing some decent rumors and leaks by summer to late summer whether it be manufacturing, specs, some games, something. Going to be weird if we go into the late summer and fall and still left entirely in the dark.

 

[Giancarlo]

I presume the plan was six years, but due to COVID boost, they decided they could extend it to seven.

But with whatever happened with the successor, they’re stretching it to eight.

If anything, I think Nintendo could def pull another 7-8 years before a Switch 3. Especially since the 2 won’t sell as much as the one

didnt Nintendo stated way back on a financial report they planed Switch to have a 10 year lifecycle?

Nintendo Switch is in the middle of its lifecycle - could last till 2027

The Switch 2 is not going to be out anytime soon, but Nintendo has started to hint that it will be backwards compatible when it arrives.

metro.co.uk

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

I think the Switch 3 is extremely far away because 3nm onward are so bad.

Stacking is just awful for mobile hardware, there needs to be a LOT of electricity saving breakthroughs not related to nanometer generation to get stacking to work well on mobile hardware.

I would expect new Nintendo consoles every 10-12 years moving forward without a major paradigm shift.

 

[NineTailSage]

Nintendo will confirm the existence of the Switch 2 in April 28th. With a little birthday luck, anything is possible.

Nintendo will just to be spiteful announce it on the 29th...

I actually kinda disagree about the hardware remark, but only because this is a very strange situation. We roughly know what we're getting in terms of hardware thanks to the Nvidia leak, even if there's skepticism and disagreement in "how powerful" it will be at launch (basically anywhere between Base PS4 and Series S). Nintendo being unpredictable in terms of general announcements and reveals is the strange part.

The best way I can describe it is that we know what the product will roughly be and when the device will be released, but the line connecting the two is practically invisible. It's kinda annoying. For comparison's sake, the past three home consoles were at least revealed a fair bit in advance either out of obligation or through intended planning. Project Revolution and Wii U were both revealed a 1-2 years before they released, the NX was known for years and we knew we were getting news some point in 2016 with a release date in 2017, the Switch 2... we don't even know it's damn codename.

That said, I do agree with the point that third parties are likely being antsy about wanting to reveal what they're cooking for the switch 2, either in terms of ports or new games. Having a new game that's "Releasing on the next-gen system" is a bit selling point, even if it's for a Nintendo system. On the other hand though, Nintendo tends to reveal third-party stuff alongside their big console announcement showcase events, like with the Wii U's E3 2011 conference or the Switch's 2017 Presentation. We did have smaller stuff prior to the Switch Presentation 2017 like Just Dance and Sonic Forces getting an "NX" release, but that was about it.

Basically, the key takeaway from this post is "What the fuck are you doing Nintendo?"

The whole scope of everything is interesting and even Gio Corsi (from PlayStation) now being at Nintendo of America (in their AAA 3rd party management team) shows the type of time Nintendo will be on with Switch 2. We are just waiting now for the puzzle pieces to all align.

the worst part about knowing stuff you're not supposed to know (drake in general, from leakers and data theft) is that every day of no news, it's proof of there being a problem

I don't think this can be stated enough!
We have know the foundation specs of Switch 2 for sometime now, so it really feels like a desert getting small trickles of information here and there.

 

[Steve]

"Alot of people are moving on" is a sure a statement huh? Especially when the Switch is still outselling the Series X consistently (Which IS partially Microsoft's fault).

You can want next system without making generalizations like that

The series console biggest mistake is probably not having Halo Infinite at launch and not having better management for it's own studios. Since the Series S/X are good consoles, with the lack of (good) first party games.

Like imagine in a world where Botw released a year later for the switch.

And hopefully Nintendo are managing both the Console and Handheld Division for the switch 2, also what can we call the handheld division, since it's now merged with the console division.

 

[Giancarlo]

The fact that the development costs for the next Legend of Zelda will skyrocket to over $100 million anyway is not a risk, as Nintendo has and has only had this one game in mega-development internally.

unfortunately both Legend of Zelda already supassed the $100 milion budget(rumored to be $130 for Breath of the Wild e $185 for Tears of The Kingdom)

 

[Dimensio]

Nintendo has been stalling evolving their graphics for many years now

This is not remotely true.

 

[Aufhebung RPG]

unfortunately both Legend of Zelda already supassed the $100 milion budget(rumored to be $130 for Breath of the Wild e $185 for Tears of The Kingdom)

Total costs include both development and promotion, and it's absolutely true that botw and totk's total costs exceeded $100 million, and by "$100 million" I'm only talking about development costs, which are usually 50/50, so the next Legend of Zelda's total costs will easily top $200 million.

 

[Kevin]

This is not remotely true.

I mean it absolutely is. Their graphics are generations behind the competition. 100% true.

 

[Steve]

I don't think this can be stated enough!
We have know the foundation specs of Switch 2 for sometime now, so it really feels like a desert getting small trickles of information here and there.

Despite knowing the foundation, there's so much we still don't know, like what type of battery it'll use, how much ram, since our biggest guess are 12-16 GB, Bandwith and lastly teraflops.

There's also

• How good will Ray tracing looks
• Will DLSS, play a huge or small role for Nintendo first party development
• The Switch 2 OS
• Eshop
• Storage
• How much of a improvement will load time be, since Botw is told to be Instant.
• Backward compatibility, will it have free patches or not

And much more

Like despite us knowing the Switch 2, at the end we still don't know that much about it.
Which is why i'm curios seeing how Nintendo first party games looks, since games like Mario Kart 8 deluxe, Animal crossing, Astral Chain, Mario odyssey, 3D kirby and Xenoblade 3 are all technical and visually impressive games

In reality it feels like, we finished the appetizer and are currently waiting for the Main course.

 

[Aufhebung RPG]

I mean it absolutely is. Their graphics are generations behind the competition. 100% true.

Nintendo fans actually pay attention to pointless graphics contests?

 

[OctoSplattack]

didnt Nintendo stated way back on a financial report they planed Switch to have a 10 year lifecycle?

Nintendo Switch is in the middle of its lifecycle - could last till 2027

The Switch 2 is not going to be out anytime soon, but Nintendo has started to hint that it will be backwards compatible when it arrives.

metro.co.uk

Okay, I've never seen anyone acknowledge this and it kinda bugs me: AFAIK, the original Nikkei article never said that Tatsumi Kimishima wanted the Switch to have a ten year lifespan. The original article quoted him as saying "I want to continue selling more than 5～6 years." Nintendo Soup then suggested that this could mean 7-to-10 years when they translated that part of the article. Nintendo themselves never gave that exact range. For all we know, Kimishima could have just wanted an extra year or two out of the system, which is what we're currently getting, not an extra four.

 

[Kevin]

Nintendo fans actually pay attention to pointless graphics contests?

What does that have to do with Nintendo not prioritizing graphics? I never made the statement you are questioning of me.

 

[Giancarlo]

Nintendo fans actually pay attention to pointless graphics contests?

no, we care about gameplay and that all, we dont want to see every hair/mustache of Mario thorpughly redenred.

 

[SuperFakerBros]

I mean it absolutely is. Their graphics are generations behind the competition. 100% true.

???

That is 100% not true, unless you think the Switch is a portable PS2 or something. They’re inline what what high end portable consoles have been expected to be for a while now and the Switch 2 will be no different

 

[Discostew]

Okay, I've never seen anyone acknowledge this and it kinda bugs me: AFAIK, the original Nikkei article never said that Tatsumi Kimishima wanted the Switch to have a ten year lifespan. The original article quoted him as saying "I want to continue selling more than 5～6 years." Nintendo Soup then suggested that this could mean 7-to-10 years when they translated that part of the article. Nintendo themselves never gave that exact range. For all we know, Kimishima could have just wanted an extra year or two out of the system, which is what we're currently getting, not an extra four.

And even if there was a mention of 10 years, that says nothing about holding off on a successor until after that period. They seriously can't plan that way.

 

[Dimensio]

I mean it absolutely is. Their graphics are generations behind the competition. 100% true.

They are but not because Nintendo has been stalling.
The Wii was underpower because they focused all their efforts in the blue ocean strategy (something Miyamoto went on record saying He regrets), the Wii U was underpowered because They wanted backwards compatibility at all costs and because of the gamepad, and the Switch was pretty much the best technology available in 2015. While the Switch 2 from what we know uses the best technology available in 2022.
And their games have always pushed the console They were on to their limits from a technical and visual standpoint.

They also have been expanding their dev teams, buying new new ones, increasing their budgets, set up construction of a new building and Takahashi even said that their devs are requesting more powerful hardware in one of the investors meeting.

The idea that Nintendo doesn't want to move to next gen development or doesn't care about graphics is laughable.

 

[Kevin]

???

That is 100% not true, unless you think the Switch is a portable PS2 or something. They’re inline what what high end portable consoles have been expected to be for a while now and the Switch 2 will be no different

For a portable in 2017 it was "ok" but since the Switch is marketed also as a home console, it's not even competing graphics wise with a PS4/One.

They are but not because Nintendo has been stalling.
The Wii was underpower because they focused all their efforts in the blue ocean strategy (something Miyamoto went on record saying He regrets), the Wii U was underpowered because They wanted backwards compatibility at all costs and because of the gamepad, and the Switch was pretty much the best technology available in 2015. While the Switch 2 from what we know uses the best technology available in 2022.
And their games have always pushed the console They were on to their limits from a technical and visual standpoint.

They also have been expanding their dev teams, buying new new ones, increasing their budgets, set up construction of a new building and Takahashi even said that their devs are requesting more powerful hardware in one of the investors meeting.

The idea that Nintendo doesn't want to move to next gen development or doesn't care about graphics is laughable.

It's laughable and yet we are in year eight of the Switch and Nintendo still won't even as much as acknowledge the successor.

Anyways here is a good interview with a former Nintendo president in regards to graphics:

Interview: Hiroshi Yamauchi - IGN

If DS is unsuccessful, Nintendo will be crushed, says former NCL president.

www.ign.com

Nintendo has shifted focus from cutting edge visuals to gameplay and innovation. Not saying there is anything wrong with this.

 

[Steve]

When can we expect the Q&A to release.

 

[Superstarxalien]

When can we expect the Q&A to release.

there's no q&a until july

 

[BloodMoon]

Maybe not the best place to post, but just seen a tweet from Austin John Plays that Nintendo’s stock has gone up just shy of 20% over night?(After-hours)

I know @Shareholder Chad has said in the past that the general base won’t know what is going on behind the scenes… but that is a HUGE increase. Could something finally be imminent?

 

[Kevin]

Maybe not the best place to post, but just seen a tweet from Austin John Plays that Nintendo’s stock has gone up just shy of 20% over night?(After-hours)

I know @Shareholder Chad has said in the past that the general base won’t know what is going on behind the scenes… but that is a HUGE increase. Could something finally be imminent?

Just the Switch 2 casual shadow drop tomorrow.

 

[NineTailSage]

Despite knowing the foundation, there's so much we still don't know, like what type of battery it'll use, how much ram, since our biggest guess are 12-16 GB, Bandwith and lastly teraflops.

There's also

• How good will Ray tracing looks
• Will DLSS, play a huge or small role for Nintendo first party development
• The Switch 2 OS
• Eshop
• Storage
• How much of a improvement will load time be, since Botw is told to be Instant.
• Backward compatibility, will it have free patches or not

And much more

Like despite us knowing the Switch 2, at the end we still don't know that much about it.
Which is why i'm curios seeing how Nintendo first party games looks, since games like Mario Kart 8 deluxe, Animal crossing, Astral Chain, Mario odyssey, 3D kirby and Xenoblade 3 are all technical and visually impressive games

In reality it feels like, we finished the appetizer and are currently waiting for the Main course.

We have a good idea of visually where this system will sit performance wise (now what Nintendo makes with this hardware is the unknown factor).

Some things I still want to be surprised by when we find out, I don't want to know everything they put together.
Where's the excitement in that?

As long as I've been gaming, I've never known this many hardware details about a Nintendo system this early on.
Times have changed in this information age and it's extra hard to keep things from leaking...
Which is why Nintendo still likes to try and surprise gamers through software as much as possible.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Just to go over some more tech stuff.

Full ReBLUR (the denoiser NVIDIA originally used for path tracing), has a frametime cost of 2.72 ms at 1440p on the RTX 3090.

From real life testing, it appears that Ray Reconstruction runs slightly faster than full ReBLUR, but the RTX 3090 (which is the same architectural generation) compared to the Switch 2 has:

8x as many tensor cores
A clock speed of 1.395 GHz (relative to an expected ~1 GHz in docked for the Switch 2, and ~500 MHz handheld. The actual clocks could be slightly higher for the Switch 2)
9x as much RAM Bandwidth

So you would expect it to run tensor core operations like ~10x faster compared to a docked Switch 2 and ~20x faster compared to handheld Switch 2. If Ray Reconstruction costs 2 ms on a 3090, then you should have a naive expectation of like a 20 ms frametime cost for RR at native 1440p.

(A naive expectation of taking the 3090 frametimes and multiplying by 10 gives a frametime cost of DLSS 1440p in docked mode of 4 ms and a frametime cost of DLSS 1080p in handheld mode of 4 ms which would be half as much as the Digital Foundry tests and very acceptable)

Now, the thing becomes that Switch 2 games are probably going to render at 540p in handheld mode and 810p in docked mode. It's not clear from the documentation how much frametime goes down as resolution goes but it will obviously help.

Anyway... We will see.

Neural radiance caching may be more relevant to the Switch 2, but probably not.

RTX Global Illumination (RTXGI)

Scale computation of global illumination with GPU ray tracing.

developer.nvidia.com

SHaRC is hopefully usable on the Switch 2 as NVIDIA says it has negligible performance costs. The Switch 2 will likely not be able to send out many rays in a reasonable frametime budget so it will need pretty heavy noise reduction.

Some estimated costs of NRC and path tracing and RESTIR in general.

The core Neural Radiance Cache API currently has a 2ms overhead in its beta release, though 1ms is due to DX12 to CUDA interoperability which will be removed in the final version, leaving only 1ms of overhead which should be fully compensated with the speeding up of path tracing operations.


The Diffuse GI API is cheaper. NVIDIA estimates slightly over half a millisecond in overhead, but it is also a more limited subset of the full Neural Radiance Cache features. The 0.9 beta release of Neural Radiance Cache is coming soon, said NVIDIA, and it will include sample applications for both the core API and the Diffuse GI API.

1 ms on a 4090 just does not lead much optimism for the Switch 2 here, but hopefully SHaRC's costs are actually very small.

Neural Radiance Cache Technique Aims to Make Path Tracing Faster on NVIDIA GPUs Thanks to Tensor Cores and AI

At GTC 2023, NVIDIA engineers showcased the Neural Radiance Cache technique that aims to make path tracing faster and better with Tensor Cores

wccftech.com

 

[Aufhebung RPG]

。

 

[Aufhebung RPG]

Just to go over some more tech stuff.

Full ReBLUR (the denoiser NVIDIA originally used for path tracing), has a frametime cost of 2.72 ms at 1440p on the RTX 3090.

From real life testing, it appears that Ray Reconstruction runs slightly faster than full ReBLUR, but the RTX 3090 (which is the same architectural generation) compared to the Switch 2 has:

8x as many tensor cores
A clock speed of 1.395 GHz (relative to an expected ~1 GHz in docked for the Switch 2, and ~500 MHz handheld. The actual clocks could be slightly higher for the Switch 2)
9x as much RAM Bandwidth

So you would expect it to run tensor core operations like ~10x faster compared to a docked Switch 2 and ~20x faster compared to handheld Switch 2. If Ray Reconstruction costs 2 ms on a 3090, then you should have a naive expectation of like a 20 ms frametime cost for RR at native 1440p.

(A naive expectation of taking the 3090 frametimes and multiplying by 10 gives a frametime cost of DLSS 1440p in docked mode of 4 ms and a frametime cost of DLSS 1080p in handheld mode of 4 ms which would be half as much as the Digital Foundry tests and very acceptable)

Now, the thing becomes that Switch 2 games are probably going to render at 540p in handheld mode and 810p in docked mode. It's not clear from the documentation how much frametime goes down as resolution goes but it will obviously help.

Anyway... We will see.

Neural radiance caching may be more relevant to the Switch 2, but probably not.

RTX Global Illumination (RTXGI)

Scale computation of global illumination with GPU ray tracing.

developer.nvidia.com

SHaRC is hopefully usable on the Switch 2 as NVIDIA says it has negligible performance costs. The Switch 2 will likely not be able to send out many rays in a reasonable frametime budget so it will need pretty heavy noise reduction.

Some estimated costs of NRC and path tracing and RESTIR in general.

1 ms on a 4090 just does not lead much optimism for the Switch 2 here, but hopefully SHaRC's costs are actually very small.

Neural Radiance Cache Technique Aims to Make Path Tracing Faster on NVIDIA GPUs Thanks to Tensor Cores and AI

At GTC 2023, NVIDIA engineers showcased the Neural Radiance Cache technique that aims to make path tracing faster and better with Tensor Cores

wccftech.com

Portable mode rendering at native 720p and docking mode rendering at native 900 to 1080p only makes sense.

 

[Lugia667]

there's no q&a until july

NINTENDO HIDING FROM SHAREHOLDERS?!!!!!! /s

 

[NineTailSage]

For a portable in 2017 it was "ok" but since the Switch is marketed also as a home console, it's not even competing graphics wise with a PS4/One.


It's laughable and yet we are in year eight of the Switch and Nintendo still won't even as much as acknowledge the successor.

Anyways here is a good interview with a former Nintendo president in regards to graphics:

Interview: Hiroshi Yamauchi - IGN

If DS is unsuccessful, Nintendo will be crushed, says former NCL president.

www.ign.com

Nintendo has shifted focus from cutting edge visuals to gameplay and innovation. Not saying there is anything wrong with this.

Yeah this just isn't factual...
The power of the hardware is one thing, but the Switch still had more modern graphical features than both the PS4 and XboxOne.
All of the major game engines were supported by the Switch and Nintendo used all of these modern graphical capabilities (even FSR) in their own games.

So they should hit the ground running, as they've had plenty of time now to get up to speed with Ampere class hardware (which in of itself still has more modern graphical features than PS5 and Series X). Nintendo has always been a gameplay first company, but if they have hardware capable of giving them both without major sacrifices to gameplay or visuals, they will give both.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Portable mode rendering at native 720p and docking mode rendering at native 900 to 1080p only makes sense.

Probably not as 540p > 1080p is probably the most efficient approach from a visual benefit to frametime cost perspective as is 810p > 1440p.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

The major thing about RT costs is that RT cost scales based on environmental complexity and Nintendo's games will have much less complex environments visually so this should help BVH construction costs and RT traversal costs, but it's not clear that this will help much for RR costs... There's no officially released algorithm to break down on RR still.

 

[Aufhebung RPG]

Probably not as 540p > 1080p is probably the most efficient approach from a visual benefit to frametime cost perspective as is 810p > 1440p.

You can try how blurry 540p native rendering resolution would be by scaling to 1080p, in fact totk on switch in docking mode with 720p native rendering resolution scaled to 900p is nowhere near as good a visual experience as botw's 810p-900p dynamic native resolution.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

You can try how blurry 540p native rendering resolution would be by scaling to 1080p, in fact totk on switch in docking mode with 720p native rendering resolution scaled to 900p is nowhere near as good a visual experience as botw's 810p-900p dynamic native resolution.

540p to 1080p looks fine on DLSS 2 onward. TotK uses FSR1 which is a joke (but is usable on Switch 2 as it's very cheap).

 

[oldpuck]

I mean it absolutely is. Their graphics are generations behind the competition. 100% true.

This is absolutely, 100% false. I don't want to get into the middle of this argument because I think it's silly, but this is just factually not true. There is not a single graphics engineer on the planet who would agree with you.

Generations plural? Like, 360 era? You're telling me that Prime Remastered looks like Quake 4? You think that Breath of the Wild looks like Skyrim? An engine that delivers physically based rendering with subsurface scattering, screen space ambient occlusion, global illumination, volumetric lighting?

You'd be hard pressed to find a 360/PS3 game that implements one of these things, much less all of them. And yes, you are correct that Nintendo's hardware is closer to this generation in terms of horsepower. But doesn't that tell you something about the development team that they're delivering far more advanced graphics at higher resolutions than the 360 era?

In terms of "generations" every advanced technique from the PS4/Xbox One era is bog-fucking-standard in a Nintendo Switch game. You could perhaps say that Nintendo's games are one generation behind. But you know what, the Switch is a 7 year old console. It came out in the last generation, it should be surprising that it's got last generation rendering techniques.

Of course, what ultra modern rendering tech is missing? Ray tracing? Sure, I guess, but show me the lengthy list of ray tracing titles on the 4 TFLOP Series S, and then we can discuss why Nintendo might not implement it on their 0.4 TFLOP hardware.

But their shared engine from Switch Sports to Tears of the Kingdom uses radiosity and probe based GI, basically "set it up just like you would for ray tracing" lighting engines, very similar to Lumen. The idea that Nintendo is afraid of ray tracing is silly.

Whatever you think about what Nintendo's whole deal is, that's all on you, but this is an overblown statement that demonstrates no working knowledge of graphical technology. "I don't like how Switch games look" is a reasonable statement. "NIntendo's graphics stack is multiple generations behind" is patently false.

 

[Aufhebung RPG]

540p to 1080p looks fine on DLSS 2 onward. TotK uses FSR1 which is a joke (but is usable on Switch 2 as it's very cheap).

I know dlss2 and 3 are better than fsr1 in terms of results but if the cost of frame time allows it, why not consider scaling to 1080p at 720p portable mode native resolution and scaling to 1440p at 900p for docking mode native resolution. these two options should be considered the most reasonable choices in my opinion.