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Predictions Will Super Mario RPG (23) Become The Best Selling Mario RPG Like How Link's Awakening (19) Became The Best Selling 2D Zelda?

Will Mario RPG Remake Become The Best Selling Mario RPG?

  • Total voters
    160
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note: the best selling Mario RPG is Bowsers Inside Story With Around 4 Million Unites sold
 
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Even though Super Mario RPG represented the Mario series before the Mario characters and settings becomes standardised, I have a feeling that it might end up selling well. It has both the name recognition of the Mario series, as well as the likelihood of being boosted by those who were longing for a traditional RPG Mario (e.g., Mario & Luigi, the first two Paper Mario games).

Thank you for reading.
 
I really think this has a great shot to do well following the movie and Wonder and with it being the big November game so I voted yes in the poll. I’m not sure how well it will do exactly out of the gate though and I think it in part depends on if there is new content or not which is possible given the new gauge in battles.

Mainly just excited a whole new generation is going to get to experience such a fantastic game.
 
I think it will.

Mario has a massive momentum, and primed for the holiday to.
It's put in a position to succeed.
 
I’m actually pretty confident it will.

Great release window, a good baseline of core gamer hype due to being a cult classic, with casual crossover potential thanks to not only just being Mario, but being Mario after a $1b grossing movie. And the game looks fucking great.

I can’t really blame anyone for thinking it’ll be a hit tbh.
 
I voted yes, which is my answer if Mario + Rabbids doesn’t count. You don’t level up but there are other RPG-like aspects to it.
 
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I think probably it will. Huge install base with impressive attach rates, Mario being arguably bigger than ever coming off the movie, SMRPG's status as a cult classic a lot of people missed late in the SNES's life, and the long absence of a "true" RPG Mario game in the wake of Paper Mario's pivot and Mario&Luigi's death.

Throw in the voucher factor (I could see a decent chunk of people buying a pair for Mario Wonder and then using their second on Mario RPG a month later) and 5 million lifetime sales feels very believable to me.
 
I think it will. Super Mario RPG is a beloved game that has been well received by fans and critics alike and it was first role-playing game in the Super Mario series.
 
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I voted no, but it's basically entirely out of pure spite, I didn't like mario RPG on the Wii virtual console when it came to Europe, and no amount if visual overhaul is going to convince me otherwise, given both the paper mario series sans sticker Star and mario and Luigi series are both significantly better than it, even in their middling titles.
 
Mario RPGs haven't traditionally done ultra gangbusters have they?

Super Paper Mario is the best selling game in the series and that's not an RPG in the slightest.
 
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I REALLY hope not. I'm not a big fan of Mario RPG. But Mario & Luigi is literally my favorite RPG's ever. Perfection in every way. I'd like it to continue to be the best selling Mario RPG. IIRC it sold 3.5m across 2 versions. So I want Mario RPG to do 3.4 or something.
 
WestEgg said:
I would be surprised if it’s not within the first three months.
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Of course it will.
It's gonna be the next Mario game just after Wonder which is gonna make a lot of people thirsty for more, it's the year of the movie, it's the holiday release just before black Friday, it has the most straight forward title possible.
I can see it surpassing 5M even.
 
I think it's important to remember that this is a remake. Remakes generally don't sell as well as new titles, regardless of their prestige or the hardware that they're on. RPG will sell well, could definitely be the best selling one, but people are greatly overestimating its potential I think. If it passes 5M, I'd be very surprised.
 
I can see it doing more than 4 millions, after I don't know. It depends of so many things, it could end up at 4 millions, just like it could end up at 6 millions (or maybe more, who knows).
 
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It will, but unless the combat changes are actually good enough, I won't be happy because the original Super Mario RPG is mid and pales to every Paper Mario and Mario & Luigi game, sans Sticker Star and Color Splash.
 
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Thunder84 said:
I think it's important to remember that this is a remake. Remakes generally don't sell as well as new titles, regardless of their prestige or the hardware that they're on. RPG will sell well, could definitely be the best selling one, but people are greatly overestimating its potential I think. If it passes 5M, I'd be very surprised.
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The thing is that to a lot of people this is essentially be a new title.

Like yes it’s a remake of a cult classic, so the core audience knows it’s a remake. But this is releasing around holiday time in a year where Mario had a $1b grossing movie. Parents will pick this up for their kids and it’s gonna look modern graphically, no “remake” in the title - just a clean and simple “Super Mario RPG.”

I’m not suggesting Nintendo is trying to pull one over on people - just that due to the nature of the Mario IP and how mainstream the appeal is, as well as the changes in presentation for the remake itself - this is gonna simply be “the next Mario game on Switch” for a vast amount of buyers. I think that Nintendo is positioning it as a tentpole release
 
Phendrift said:
The thing is that to a lot of people this is essentially be a new title.

Like yes it’s a remake of a cult classic, so the core audience knows it’s a remake. But this is releasing around holiday time in a year where Mario had a $1b grossing movie. Parents will pick this up for their kids and it’s gonna look modern graphically, no “remake” in the title - just a clean and simple “Super Mario RPG.”

I’m not suggesting Nintendo is trying to pull one over on people - just that due to the nature of the Mario IP and how mainstream the appeal is, as well as the changes in presentation for the remake itself - this is gonna simply be “the next Mario game on Switch” for a vast amount of buyers. I think that Nintendo is positioning it as a tentpole release
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I feel like I see this argument all the time, and it never really comes to fruition. For whatever reason, remakes and remasters just don’t sell as well for the most part. Happens across pretty much all franchises. No matter how “new” it is to people.

Plus, Mario Wonder is gonna take a lot of wind out of its sails when it comes to the casual holiday market. Not that RPG will struggle or anything, but Wonder is gonna pull the brunt of Mario sales by a landslide.
 
Thunder84 said:
I feel like I see this argument all the time, and it never really comes to fruition. For whatever reason, remakes and remasters just don’t sell as well for the most part. Happens across pretty much all franchises. No matter how “new” it is to people.
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It really depends on what you mean by "don't sell as well" to be honest. We can make the reasonable assumption that remasters don't sell as much as original Switch releases would or do by comparison. However, we've actually seen a decent amount of remasters sell near the average or even the ceiling of pre-Switch releases. 3D World for example is at almost 11 million by December 2022, meaning it could end up being the second best selling 3D Mario by the time the Switch is over. Tropical Freeze is at 4.12 million as of December 2021, it could end up the third highest selling sku in the series or even tied for 2nd. Then of course you have stuff like Pokemon Let's Go, or a massive outlier like Mario Kart 8 Deluxe.

Point is remasters and re-releases only don't sell like new games compared to the new standard, not the old one. And so it's totally possibly SMRPG will become the best selling Mario RPG.
 
AngryAlchemist said:
It really depends on what you mean by "don't sell as well" to be honest. We can make the reasonable assumption that remasters don't sell as much as original Switch releases would or do by comparison. However, we've actually seen a decent amount of remasters sell near the average or even the ceiling of pre-Switch releases. 3D World for example is at almost 11 million by December 2022, meaning it could end up being the second best selling 3D Mario by the time the Switch is over. Tropical Freeze is at 4.12 million as of December 2021, it could end up the third highest selling sku in the series or even tied for 2nd. Then of course you have stuff like Pokemon Let's Go, or a massive outlier like Mario Kart 8 Deluxe.

Point is remasters and re-releases only don't sell like new games compared to the new standard, not the old one. And so it's totally possibly SMRPG will become the best selling Mario RPG.
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Sure, but what is the "new standard" for Mario RPGs? The only comparison point we have is the Origami King, which wasn't able even be the best selling game in its own franchise despite being released during arguably the Switch's most prolific year in terms of popularity. And yeah, the reception probably pushed those numbers down a bit, but the point stands that the only Mario RPG(ish) game on the Switch so far wasn't really close at all to taking the record.

I'm not saying that Mario RPG has no chance of hitting those numbers at all, it could definitely take the record. Could even be another outlier like Let's Go or MK8D. But I also see a very realistic possibility where it becomes the next Famiboards sales disappointment relative to expectations.
 
Thunder84 said:
Sure, but what is the "new standard" for Mario RPGs? The only comparison point we have is the Origami King, which wasn't able even be the best selling game in its own franchise despite being released during arguably the Switch's most prolific year in terms of popularity. And yeah, the reception probably pushed those numbers down a bit, but the point stands that the only Mario RPG(ish) game on the Switch so far wasn't really close at all to taking the record.

I'm not saying that Mario RPG has no chance of hitting those numbers at all, it could definitely take the record. Could even be another outlier like Let's Go or MK8D. But I also see a very realistic possibility where it becomes the next Famiboards sales disappointment relative to expectations.
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Thunder84 said:
Sure, but what is the "new standard" for Mario RPGs? The only comparison point we have is the Origami King, which wasn't able even be the best selling game in its own franchise despite being released during arguably the Switch's most prolific year in terms of popularity. And yeah, the reception probably pushed those numbers down a bit, but the point stands that the only Mario RPG(ish) game on the Switch so far wasn't really close at all to taking the record.

I'm not saying that Mario RPG has no chance of hitting those numbers at all, it could definitely take the record. Could even be another outlier like Let's Go or MK8D. But I also see a very realistic possibility where it becomes the next Famiboards sales disappointment relative to expectations.
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Origami King could end up legging it out to being the #1 Paper Mario. Either way even in my own example we have a franchise that doesn't have a new standard - DKC. DKC's highest single SKU is the first game all the way back on SNES, but Tropical Freeze is still selling largely like a new game going off the average sales of DKC titles of the past. That's sort of my point, there is no "new standard" for something like Mario RPGs, and in that sense while Mario RPG might not sell like a new acclaimed Mario RPG could on the Switch, I'm not sure that necessarily leaves it out of outselling every other Mario RPG, either.

I'm personally 50 / 50 on it though, I can just see it both ways. The Switch has raised the bar for games and I don't think Mario RPG will raise the bar as high as some series have. But I don't think that means it has no shot at being the best selling, either. Personally I'm scared of putting too much stock into pre-release hype just because of the Switch effect after what happened with Metroid Prime (which I predicted fairly accurately) and Origami King. I could definitely see a scenario where the game doesn't sell as wel as is hyped. Origami King in particular not getting much of a boost almost seems like a bad omen, though to be fair Japan seems like it might go crazy over SMRPG.
 
Thunder84 said:
Sure, but what is the "new standard" for Mario RPGs? The only comparison point we have is the Origami King, which wasn't able even be the best selling game in its own franchise despite being released during arguably the Switch's most prolific year in terms of popularity. And yeah, the reception probably pushed those numbers down a bit, but the point stands that the only Mario RPG(ish) game on the Switch so far wasn't really close at all to taking the record.

I'm not saying that Mario RPG has no chance of hitting those numbers at all, it could definitely take the record. Could even be another outlier like Let's Go or MK8D. But I also see a very realistic possibility where it becomes the next Famiboards sales disappointment relative to expectations.
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I must once again point out that Super Paper Mario, as good of a game as it is, is an obvious sales outlier due to it being the first game on the Wii to star Mario and being marketed as a platformer.
 
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Yes.

It's on a platform that has sold 130+ million consoles sold.

This is the first time the game gets an official (non virtual console) release in Europe.

People are hyped for this game.
 
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I'm feeling a 3 mil floor, but don't know for sure that it passes the 4m of Bowser's Inside story, it certainly could in the year of the Mario Movie.

(Actually pretty good sales for BiS into the 5th year of the ds... dream team made 2.62, which is better than I expected and the drop seems more in line with being on a less successful console, though it no doubt had a decent budget. It always seemed like Alphas Dream floundered a little after dream team, who asked for paper jam (its still fun), and then 2 remakes a dead console, rough circumstance).
 
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Spam account permanently banned - Aurc
Thanks to reading this article, I have gained new knowledge, thank you very much
 
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Linkstrikesback said:
I voted no, but it's basically entirely out of pure spite, I didn't like mario RPG on the Wii virtual console when it came to Europe, and no amount if visual overhaul is going to convince me otherwise, given both the paper mario series sans sticker Star and mario and Luigi series are both significantly better than it, even in their middling titles.
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I agree with your ranking, but I still like SMRPG.
As far as I'm concerned, every Mario RPG games except sticker star are all at least great.
 
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Hope it and TTYD become the best-selling RPG Mario games. I'm sure both titles will do well enough. One thing that might hold SMRPG back is how competitive this year is.
 
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Shadow said:
It will be until Thousand Year Door arrives 👀
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I honestly wonder how much that other remake will sell compared with SMRPG. It’ll be the battle of remade RPG classics. Maybe TTYD will sell a tad better because of name recognition?
 
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I say it very likely will be because SMRPG has that near-mainstream level SNES era nostalgia factor, certain aspects of it have left their cultural mark which which never had a presence in the series since, and it's exactly the style of remake that most people envision when they say "hey they should totally bring back [old game I remember]".
 
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VegiHam said:
Depends on if you count Super Paper Mario.

Cus it won't outsell SPM
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Mario and luigi bowser inside has outsold super paper mario and that’s the best selling mario rpg he’s referencing on this thread. So I guess that answers your question
 
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Depends on if you count Mario + Rabbids Kingdom Battle.
Had a 6 year head start and goes on sale for dirt cheap, but it's also a different kind of RPG, being an SRPG. I don't think SMRPG will sell 10 million that fast, but I do think it will sell well, what with the movie and such. Also lack of Rabbids will PROBABLY help. Length will probably be more of a talking point as it gets closer to release though.
 
JazzyFuture said:
Depends on if you count Mario + Rabbids Kingdom Battle.
Had a 6 year head start and goes on sale for dirt cheap, but it's also a different kind of RPG, being an SRPG. I don't think SMRPG will sell 10 million that fast, but I do think it will sell well, what with the movie and such. Also lack of Rabbids will PROBABLY help. Length will probably be more of a talking point as it gets closer to release though.
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I think the length might actually help. The length is often a reason people are too scared to get into RPG’s, and a game thats not long wouldn’t have that problem.
 
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