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Sales Data Updated sales numbers for Switch titles: Pokémon Scarlet and Violet (20.61M), Splatoon 3 (10.13M), Bayonetta 3 (1.04M), and more

WestEgg said:
Anyway…

Breath of the Wild is outlegging Smash now.


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What we thinking for TOTK opening weekend. 10M? 15M? I'm going 15M
 
Galgavias said:
What we thinking for TOTK opening weekend. 10M? 15M? I'm going 15M
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My guess is however many cards that they can produce. ScarVio did 10m opening weekend, so I think that's a rough sensible estimate/upper limit.

I think ScarVio was also the record for Nintendo, so doing 50% better than that out the gate would be very optimistic!
 
ILikeFeet said:
it's the fastest selling Bayonetta yet. if they wanted much larger growth, I think they're on the delusional side.

that said, I feel like we're getting to the end of the Nintendo era of Bayonetta. it being a licensed title might have something to do with that, and with 3 titles under their belt, it's a damn good run.
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There's another Bayonetta game in about a month. Even though it's a spin off title. Nintendo's still supporting the series. If a Bayonetta 4 is greenlit(if it haven't been done already), it's most likely coming out on the Switch's successor. Nintendo seems to like the series. Based on the continue support of it.
 
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Linkstrikesback said:
Bayonetta 3 literally has a to be continued screen, and it's unlikely to have been about the upcoming Cereza game
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doesn't contradict when what I said. I just think they're winding down. we might get one more game out of them past Bayo Origins, but I think Nintendo would push for more IP they own like Astral Chain or something new
 
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Botw will surpass Smash Ultimate and become the 3rd best selling game on the console this year.. pretty crazy. Odyssey will probably surpass Sw/Sh too.
 
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Saying that Xenoblade 3 does not have an iconic cast is ridiculous, maybe it's not as appealing to some but stating that is "not iconic" is just subjective.

To me Xenoblade 2 has the most forgettable characters and is the biggest mess of a game I have ever played and my biggest disappointment in gaming, but guess what is the most popular Xenoblade game and a lot of people love it.
 
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ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
That should be the expectation. It's tracking 25% higher than Sword/Shield which already is at 25m.
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After years to get there.

It's still a maybe, but that is already giving it a huge amount of praise. We can't really be sure until we know exactly what the post launch support (patches and DLC), and legs look like.
 
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Monolith Soft will probably get to keep making Xeno if they want, but Nintendo probably has to be encouraging them to try to make something different for their next game.

It's very hard to make a good open-world RPG that sells less than 2.5m these days, lol.
 
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
That should be the expectation. It's tracking 25% higher than Sword/Shield which already is at 25m.
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Hmmm I dunno, I think Sw/Sh or thereabouts is the ceiling. Remember that those two will have longer on the market compared to S/V before we likely see a Switch 2 which would likely steal its thunder somewhat, and that's not taking into consideration whether GameFreak deliberately cut off S/V's legs with another release.
 
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ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
Monolith Soft will probably get to keep making Xeno if they want, but Nintendo probably has to be encouraging them to try to make something different for their next game.

It's very hard to make a good open-world RPG that sells less than 2.5m these days, lol.
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Eh I think as a series it will probably be fine. Xeno3 had a fair amount of things working against it. Additionally, in light of recent financial results, I think if you look at the platform health, along with overall market health, it's evident that conditions were not ideal for it to blow up. Vouchers coming back to NA is a very clear response to overall flagging software sales in the region which have been evident for much of this FY. That will probably help the legs of games like Xeno3, Bayo, etc.

Similarly I think the rumors of a light 2nd half to 2023 might be indicative of Nintendo seeing the writing on the wall over the last 6+ months. I would not be surprised if some games have been pushed back to be cross gen/next gen with a successor.
 
somehow missed the update for nsmbudx
  • New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe - 14.75M (+1.45M since March 31, 2022)
 
I feel like people disappointed with Bayonetta 3 and Xenoblade 3 numbers are missing just how niche those IPs are and will continue to be. They're not going to bust out in NA/EU, but it seems like Nintendo budgets them sensibly and is probably happy with million-sellers.

I know that this post-capitalist hellscape has made us think that if there isn't endless growth, something must be wrong, but when it comes to those two IP, expecting significant title-to-title growth is probably unrealistic.

On a different note, I thought Mario Kart Wii's attach rate was bananas, but I guess I'd seen nothing yet when it comes to Mario Kart, huh?
 
DistractedByPixels said:
I feel like people disappointed with Bayonetta 3 and Xenoblade 3 numbers are missing just how niche those IPs are and will continue to be. They're not going to bust out in NA/EU, but it seems like Nintendo budgets them sensibly and is probably happy with million-sellers.

I know that this post-capitalist hellscape has made us think that if there isn't endless growth, something must be wrong, but when it comes to those two IP, expecting significant title-to-title growth is probably unrealistic.

On a different note, I thought Mario Kart Wii's attach rate was bananas, but I guess I'd seen nothing yet when it comes to Mario Kart, huh?
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IDK, I don't know if Xenoblade's genre is very niche. Outside of the anime styling and system layering, it's an open-world RPG and that's one of the most popular genres around.

FF16 meanwhile is basically Bayonetta but higher budget and with (hopefully) competent writing staff and I would imagine Square is expecting to sell around 10m there. God of War reboot also isn't TOO dissimilar gameplay wise from Bayonetta either.
 
Almost a billion pieces of software sold.

That’s insane. Is this the most successful console Nintendo ever, from a software sales point of view
 
xaszatm said:
Funnily enough...Splatoon 2. Though I guess that doesn't really count since Splatoon 1 was trapped on the Wii U. Still, in 5 months, Splatoon 2 matched Splatoon 1's lifetime sales of 4.91M. It's only 4 months for Splatoon 3 but it already sold twice as much in 4 months.
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Yes, but the poster I was referring to was specifically talking about Splatoon 3 being a poor performer as a third entry of a franchise.

Lots of 2nd entries quickly surpassed first entry sales :p
 
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ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
IDK, I don't know if Xenoblade's genre is very niche. Outside of the anime styling and system layering, it's an open-world RPG and that's one of the most popular genres around.

FF16 meanwhile is basically Bayonetta but higher budget and with (hopefully) competent writing staff and I would imagine Square is expecting to sell around 10m there. God of War reboot also isn't TOO dissimilar gameplay wise from Bayonetta either.
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These are stretches to me, particularly the Bayo comparison.

I do think there's a significant sales cap on anime-esque JRPGs in the West, specifically. You are letting the VERY broad genre of "open-world RPG" do a lot of work. This isn't Horizon or RDR or BotW (all of which can be fitted into that same very broad genre).
 
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Sadist said:
Almost a billion pieces of software sold.

That’s insane. Is this the most successful console Nintendo ever, from a software sales point of view
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Pretty sure Wii also had a billion games sold, or close to it.

Of course, the Switch's total doesn't include download only titles sold, which makes up the majority of the Switch's games library.
 
I feel like some people act like 2D Mario isn't a huge seller - Mario U Deluxe is nearing 15M copies. That's a port of probably one of the less-loved entries in the series. A new 2D Mario game could probably top 20M lifetime, right? If it's good?
 
Neverx said:
Honestly surprised it didn’t hit 2 million considering it was already at 1.7 million in September, guess the GOTY noms didn’t push it over the edge.
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Over at IB we are speculating it may have been over shipped initially thus the small number. However, if it is anything like XB2 then it will be a slow burn & probably reach 2mil by the middle of the year.
 
Cubs017 said:
I feel like some people act like 2D Mario isn't a huge seller - Mario U Deluxe is nearing 15M copies. That's a port of probably one of the less-loved entries in the series. A new 2D Mario game could probably top 20M lifetime, right? If it's good?
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Sure, why not? NSMB Wii is a mediocre-to-bad 2D Mario and it hit ~30M.

If they actually made a good one, it could sell an easy 20M.
 
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Nice to see Kirby, Switch Sports, and 3D World doing so well! Xenoblade 3 also did well even if I'm disappointed the series isn't nearly as popular as I want it to be.
 
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Luigi, Kirby, RingFit, and Switch Sports, coming through with that "Be careful who you make fun of in highschool" energy.

You love to see it.
 
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Skittzo said:
Pretty sure Wii also had a billion games sold, or close to it.

Of course, the Switch's total doesn't include download only titles sold, which makes up the majority of the Switch's games library.
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Wii is at 921 million. Its insane, the Switch is already at 994 million 🙃
 
Skittzo said:
Pretty sure Wii also had a billion games sold, or close to it.

Of course, the Switch's total doesn't include download only titles sold, which makes up the majority of the Switch's games library.
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Wait it doesn't? Do Sony and Microsoft also count them that way? Because Sony reports a larger software amount sold, but if they're including download titles and Nintendo isn't...
 
DistractedByPixels said:
I feel like people disappointed with Bayonetta 3 and Xenoblade 3 numbers are missing just how niche those IPs are and will continue to be. They're not going to bust out in NA/EU, but it seems like Nintendo budgets them sensibly and is probably happy with million-sellers.

I know that this post-capitalist hellscape has made us think that if there isn't endless growth, something must be wrong, but when it comes to those two IP, expecting significant title-to-title growth is probably unrealistic.

On a different note, I thought Mario Kart Wii's attach rate was bananas, but I guess I'd seen nothing yet when it comes to Mario Kart, huh?
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I think there is room for growth with Xenoblade, but I think they need to simplify all the on-screen craziness and take the story up even higher to bring in a wider audience. Bayonetta is kind of a new franchise to a lot of Nintendo fans since most people didn't own a Wii U.
 
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Linkstrikesback said:
Wait it doesn't? Do Sony and Microsoft also count them that way? Because Sony reports a larger software amount sold, but if they're including download titles and Nintendo isn't...
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Sony didn't always report download only game sales but they started doing so a few years ago I believe. MS doesn't report anything really
 
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The XC3 doomsayers are going to be really shocked when they find out Tales of Arise hasn't sold that much more than 2m. JRPGs don't sell that much and it's a genre that the big 3 are almost completely beholden to SE for high-quality output.

As happy as Nintendo would be if XC3 was selling as well as Luigi's Mansion 2, they're not turning their noses at 1.8m in 6 months. It had great critical and fan reception and it's a series that's consistently delivered on time and within its budget. The barometer for success isn't "the best X ever" in perpetuity.
 
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
IDK, I don't know if Xenoblade's genre is very niche. Outside of the anime styling and system layering, it's an open-world RPG and that's one of the most popular genres around.
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Even as a hybrid system, the degree to which the game is turn-based and complicated in the eyes of a newcomer make this comparison very unrealistic
 
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Shinespark said:
The XC3 doomsayers are going to be really shocked when they find out Tales of Arise hasn't sold that much more than 2m. JRPGs don't sell that much and it's a genre that the big 3 are almost completely beholden to SE for high-quality output.

As happy as Nintendo would be if XC3 was selling as well as Luigi's Mansion 2, they're not turning their noses at 1.8m in 6 months. It had great critical and fan reception and it's a series that's consistently delivered on time and within its budget. The barometer for success isn't "the best X ever" in perpetuity.
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If it finishes around say 2-2.2 million ... that's still a pretty healthy base to grow from, Fire Emblem started at a lot lower point than that, it wasn't that long ago that 2 million-ish was normal sales of like Kirby.

I think they need to keep one-upping the story and presentation in future installments while reducing the clutter of the battle system to make it more inviting for new gamers. Maybe as Final Fantasy has gotten a bit edgier, Xenoblade could do that too. I mean the aesthetics of Xenoblade are cool but they do feel a little ... late 90s/early 2000s. Maybe they could push that aspect of it a bit and make it look a little more (I'm not saying exactly) like a Elden Ring x Cyberpunk type thing. I think Xenoblade 4 on Switch 2 will be helped because the IP really needs that extra horsepower for the open world aspect.
 
Cubs017 said:
I feel like some people act like 2D Mario isn't a huge seller - Mario U Deluxe is nearing 15M copies. That's a port of probably one of the less-loved entries in the series. A new 2D Mario game could probably top 20M lifetime, right? If it's good?
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I think it's less that 2D Mario isn't a huge seller, but it's far removed from the peak of the NSMB series, with both DS and Wii selling 30 million. A new 2D Mario would do very well, but I think the New brand is just about tapped out, so hopefully it's something... new.
 
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Just looked it up and Xenoblade 2 shipped 1.31 million in about 4 months. Do we have any indication of its legs 3/4 months after that? It feels like the only updates we really got were from the CESA White Papers.

I don't think the doomposting for Xenoblade 3 is warranted just yet, especially the discussion about the series being put on ice. It should get a bit of a boost when the expansion comes out, at least.
 
N75 said:
Just looked it up and Xenoblade 2 shipped 1.31 million in about 4 months. Do we have any indication of its legs 3/4 months after that? It feels like the only updates we really got were from the CESA White Papers.

I don't think the doomposting for Xenoblade 3 is warranted just yet, especially the discussion about the series being put on ice. It should get a bit of a boost when the expansion comes out, at least.
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I don't know how much of a boost will the DLC story give to Xenoblade 3 to be honest. Looking at Xenoblade 2 sales (below) In 2018 it sold 590k, but 250k were sold in the first 3 months of the year, leaving 340k for the following 9 months (Torna launched in the 6th of the 9 months).
The DLC did not bump up sales of the base game, but we can argue it softened the drop possibly.

If I had to make a guesstimate I would say the total 2023 sales for XC3 will end up being 400k-450k. A slight increase over the single 90k/quarter data point we have but not really a second launch.



Another factor I suspect is happening is this flow:

Person sees Xenoblade 3 content
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Q: "I wanna play Xenoblade, can I start with 3?"
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A: "You should play the first 2 games first"
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Q: "Is there any recommended order?"
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A: "DE before 2 is the intended order, but just start with the one you think you'd like most"
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The person attracted by XC3 ends up buying Xenoblade 2, or Xenoblade DE instead​


Of all the content creators I watched play Xenoblade 3, not a single person recommended starting with 3.

Joseki said:
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Not sure why people are worried about Xenoblade when Monolith Soft has already said they can't get any other IP approved by Nintendo besides Xenoblade.
 
m051293 said:
Evergreens JP vs Overseas by Fiscal Year


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Comments

JP
-SV instantly blows past MK8D and SSBU. Excited to see if has the legs for 8M+
-MK8D/SSBU on the verge of 7M and will leg it out to 8M (8.5M for MK8D I think, depends on successor)
-BOTW based on Chris's post in MC thread, has exceed 3.4M (3.6M w/Wii U) and will have another year in the 450-500K range once the FY wraps. 4M in sight for NSW version alone

Overseas

-BOTW now catching up to ACNH's yearly totals. 2023 CY should be strong as it gets boosted alongside hype for TOTK. I think it crosses 30M outside of JP easily with another 2 years, but won't catch ACNH and will have to settle for 3rd best selling title.
-MK8D has slowed quite a bit outside of JP this FY. It'll still close around 7.5M, but in JP it will likely be up YoY so the decline is evident.
-SV's lead vs PLA is far more stark in JP than outside JP. On the flipside, PLA is legging much better outside of JP than within it.
-SMO I think will crawl past 25M in OS markets. SSBU will blow past and get up to 27.5M, maybe higher.
-3D World/BF will cross 10M this summer.
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you forgot forgotten land lol
 
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