2 years from now... How would this thing fit into market?
Even IF Nintendo doesn't launch a new Switch in 2024, waiting until 2025 (unlikely), they would still have over a year of releases on their platform as an advantage and not only that, but a bunch of PS4/PS5 ports that did not make it to the Switch 1 due to power constraints could come over within the first 1-2 years of Switch 2.
Considering retrocompatibility and a chunk of PS4 games + Nintendo exclusives (old and new), team red would have a huge advantage over team blue imo.
This kinda reminds me of the 3ds vs vita situation:
3ds released nearly a year earlier than the vita, the vita clearly had more power but it failed to deliver in software.
But if a vita 2 has seamless retrocompatibility with digital ps4 games, this would make the whole software issue irrelevant at launch.
Now, the thing is the new kid on the block: steam deck.
For the sake of simplicity, I will focus on the deck and ignore the other competing pc-handhelds.
Deck 2 is set to release around the same time. And if sony manages a pricing of around 400-500$ on a vita 2 with that rumored hardware, valve could do something similar in terms of performance. But with the advantage of being a pc, with a MUCH larger library (and steam at that).
We KNOW that playstation users would likely still pick the vita 2 over a deck/deck 2 just because well, PS is where their library is, it's where their achievements are, etc... But consider this: the deck has been out for a couple of years now, it gave PS fans who were yearning for a vita 2 pretty much what they wanted (except it wasn't from sony). Now, how many of these people are now on valve's platform, with their libraries and achievements built somewhat?
Ofc, I like to believe that more than half the steam deck users were people who already came from pc, but needed something portable (it all makes sense when we consider the fact gamers tend to stick to the platform where their library is - case in point: one of the reasons why xbox is failing so hard to grab the market).
But if the number of deck adoptions continues to grow, even IF it doesn't pass the (quite miserable) ~10mi units sold mark until a new model comes around, I believe we would have an ACTUAL competition going on between both.
But I tend to believe that competition would be kinda one-sided towards the deck if sony keeps on publishing their games on pc. I mean, they could add support for PSP and vita 1 retrocompat. on vita 2 through emulated remastered ports. But what are the odds that EVEN IF they do so, it turns out enticing enough? I mean, have we not seen the disappointment that was the retro library on ps5? the fact they could've brought ps3 support as the ps5 could EASILY emulate it but they still didn't? well, a deck 2 could do all of that and much more, just saying...
Come 2026, people would be met with 3 options:
- pick a switch 2, for nintendo exclusives, pretty good japanese games support, many titles that are on pc and a chunk of the ps4/ps5 library
- pick a deck 2, for the ability to play ps4/ps5 titles published on pc, pc-exclusives and the ability to emulate pretty much anything
- pick a vita 2, for well... playing ps4 games portably (which the competition also does, mostly) and some ps5 games. but being locked down to a platform that wouldn't let you do anything else
For the few who had a ps4/ps4 pro but didn't eventually buy a ps5 or the upcoming ps5 pro, the vita 2 would make more sense (if they had a considerable digital library). For the ones who only have a ps5, it would still make sense (again, as long as they have a decent enough digital library).
But for people with most of their library on pc or nintendo switch/switch 2, it wouldn't make sense to get a vita 2, regardless of power.
Idk how the split of digital vs physical is on playstation, but I believe it tends to be digital >>> physical. Even then, those with physical libraries many times still own a decent enough amount of digital games.
TL;DR: I think the vita 2 would struggle a bit, but definitely do better than the vita 1 (IF sony plays their cards right and brings ps4/ps5 games).
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