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Predictions On October 20th Spider-Man 2 and Super Mario Bros. Wonder Face off. Which reviews better? Which sells better this holiday?

Spider-Man vs. Mario: Which reviews better? Which sells better?

  • Mario both reviews and sell better

    Votes: 104 58.4%

  • Spider-Man both reviews and sells better

    Votes: 9 5.1%

  • Mario reviews better but Spider-Man sells better

    Votes: 11 6.2%

  • Spider-Man reviews better but Mario sells better

    Votes: 54 30.3%
  • Total voters
    178
  • Poll closed .
Those figures for Spider-Man are nuts but I do think Wonder is going to have longer legs. Spider-Man 2 is very story driven so there's more FOMO there with wanting to buy it and beat it so you aren't spoiled on the internet.
 
Did Odyssey do like 5m in its first 3 days or week or I'm misremembering that?

Arceus did 6.5m opening weekend right? Sword and Shield I can't recall. Did they reveal first weekend sales of Smash?

They've had two 10m opening weekend sellers, so maybe it has set that as the bar. First 3 days might be lower than TotK and Pokémon SV but I'm confident it will break SV's record for first quarter sales.

Highly anticipated launch in late October + keep selling due to WoM + huge boost for black Friday + huge boost for Christmas. Also more tracking time than SV and TotK.
 
Marce-chan said:
Did Odyssey do like 5m in its first 3 days or week or I'm misremembering that?

Arceus did 6.5m opening weekend right? Sword and Shield I can't recall. Did they reveal first weekend sales of Smash?

They've had two 10m opening weekend sellers, so maybe it has set that as the bar. First 3 days might be lower than TotK and Pokémon SV but I'm confident it will break SV's record for first quarter sales.

Highly anticipated launch in late October + keep selling due to WoM + huge boost for black Friday + huge boost for Christmas. Also more tracking time than SV and TotK.
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Here's everything that was announced for the Switch, launch weekend 3-day sell-through figures.

  1. Pokémon Scarlet/Violet - >10.0M
  2. The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom - >10.0M < Scarlet/Violet
  3. Pokémon Legends: Arceus - >6.5M
  4. Pokémon BD/SP - >6.0M
  5. Pokémon Sword/Shield - >6.0M
  6. Super Smash Bros. Ultimate - >5.0M
  7. Pokémon Let's Go Pikachu/Eevee - >3.0M
  8. Super Mario Odyssey - >2.0M

*New Horizons did not get an announcement but is estimated to be #3, around 7M
**Splatoon 3 did not get a WW announcement but did 3.45M in JP alone. Estimated to be around the SSBU figure.
 
SpaceGodzilla said:
2.5M first week, remember it was the switch first year so most of it's sales came after the launch
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m051293 said:
Here's everything that was announced for the Switch, launch weekend 3-day sell-through figures.

  1. Pokémon Scarlet/Violet - >10.0M
  2. The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom - >10.0M < Scarlet/Violet
  3. Pokémon Legends: Arceus - >6.5M
  4. Pokémon BD/SP - >6.0M
  5. Pokémon Sword/Shield - >6.0M
  6. Super Smash Bros. Ultimate - >5.0M
  7. Pokémon Let's Go Pikachu/Eevee - >3.0M
  8. Super Mario Odyssey - >2.0M

*New Horizons did not get an announcement but is estimated to be #3, around 7M
**Splatoon 3 did not get a WW announcement but did 3.45M in JP alone. Estimated to be around the SSBU figure.
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Yeah I definitely think Wonder will be between Arceus and TotK, on the higher range. 7-9M. I don't doubt the potential for it doing 10m tho.
 
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Maxrunner said:
Has someone who is completely tired of the marvel brand I'm baffled people still eat these up as they do.
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People can complain about both Marvel and Mario oversaturation, and it may be true, but it's a vocal minority as they both typically sell like crazy (like the premise of this topic implies).
 
Maxrunner said:
Has someone who is completely tired of the marvel brand I'm baffled people still eat these up as they do.
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To be fair there’s been 32 films in the MCU universe and 4 games? There’s been 50 Super Mario games alone, not counting spin-offs like Tennis, Strikers, etc. so it does go both ways.

If it’s popular, people will buy it in droves.
 
Aurc said:
Thank you for saying this, I genuinely appreciate it. The harsh reality PlayStation and Marvel fans don't seem to want to accept is that Spider-Man is a cash cow. There's been so many Spider-Man games already, and the only reason they've given him yet another one (instead of someone like Hawkeye, who may not be as popular, yet is still a really nice guy with a great personality) is pure greed, plain and simple. When artistic merit takes a backseat to lining executive pockets, it makes me lose hope for the future of this hobby, and even society as a whole.

Meh. At least we have Mario. Nintendo has always done right by me, unlike $ony and Micro$oft. Personally, I'll stick with the old PS1 Spider-Man game by Neversoft. That game was my childhood, and it was made with love during a time when superheroes weren't poisoned by modern greed and oversaturation.

What is happening to the hobby I love?

/s. This is just a shitpost, but the thought of someone taking me seriously is terrifying
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309db266cbdad4f9fac3813480ad23c5.jpg
 
Aurc said:
Thank you for saying this, I genuinely appreciate it. The harsh reality PlayStation and Marvel fans don't seem to want to accept is that Spider-Man is a cash cow. There's been so many Spider-Man games already, and the only reason they've given him yet another one (instead of someone like Hawkeye, who may not be as popular, yet is still a really nice guy with a great personality) is pure greed, plain and simple. When artistic merit takes a backseat to lining executive pockets, it makes me lose hope for the future of this hobby, and even society as a whole.

Meh. At least we have Mario. Nintendo has always done right by me, unlike $ony and Micro$oft. Personally, I'll stick with the old PS1 Spider-Man game by Neversoft. That game was my childhood, and it was made with love during a time when superheroes weren't poisoned by modern greed and oversaturation.

What is happening to the hobby I love?

/s. This is just a shitpost, but the thought of someone taking me seriously is terrifying
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hawkeye game based on the david aja run or bust
 
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Maxrunner said:
Has someone who is completely tired of the marvel brand I'm baffled people still eat these up as they do.
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Most people don’t watch every single Marvel film and tv series or read every comic, they never have. Marvel publishes ~50 comics a month but even when I was following them, I rarely read more than 3 or 4 (and complained about all the crossovers with characters I didnt care about, demanding I buy more in order to follow the story).

As such, I feel like the people feeling fatigue from media are usually those that are so into it that they have to see everything, the same as video games players that Gamepass is aimed at, those that want to see every big game on the platform and play 50+ games a year. Thing is, such hobbyists are not the general, wider audience for superhero films that are deliberately as accessible as possible, even with massive crossovers, and far more so than the comic equivalents ever were. A whole ton of people watched the run up to infinity war/Endgame as a media pop culture phenomenon, and then wandered off with little interest in the ongoing story after that. Not through burnout, but because they just aren’t as invested in the ongoing wider lore beyond the big flashpoints.

I remember reading stuff like Marvel’s Infinity War comics in the early 90s (that’s roughly equivalent to the MCU arc that ended with Endgame) and it just assumed readers knew who everyone was when they were packed with obscure characters from all over four dozen books, rather than 3 films a year or whatever. Each and every film is also way easier on new viewers, mostly down to the plots being fairly simple and not standing on top of decades of obscure lore and character development. The MCU now has fans that weren’t even born when Iron Man came out in 2006 and Sam Jackson started throwing around ‘Avengers’ in what became obsession with post-credits teasers.

Anyway, on top of all of that, Spider-man is pretty much its own thing, plenty of people just follow Spidey and don’t care about the rest. In the same way that plenty of people pick up a Mario game or two without feeling like they need to pick up everything Nintendo makes with the mushroom kingdom characters in it out of a sense of completeness or whatever. I still pick up the odd Spidey trade paperback and loved the Spider-verse cartoons even though I haven’t read the comics on a regular basis in decades. Same goes for Transformers, where I’ll sit and watch a few episodes of the latest cartoon with my kid but happily ignore the films and most of the rest of the franchise.
 
Maxrunner said:
Has someone who is completely tired of the marvel brand I'm baffled people still eat these up as they do.
Click to expand...
not to jump onto the dogpile that is already happening to you (and not to mention, i have no interest in marvel either) but, i do think this is a different case. it seems the most amount of marvel fatigue is found in the movie/tv industry, where marvel has produced an overwhelming amount of content. the games industry, and especially with this game as it is developed by sony themselves and not some shitty movie-licensed title, is not really in the same realm.
 
rêverie said:
not to jump onto the dogpile that is already happening to you (and not to mention, i have no interest in marvel either)
Click to expand...
someone is dogpiling me? who?
Edit: Anyway its just my opinion on the whole marvel thing. Obviously millions of people think otherwise, and i do agree that Nintendo sometimes pushes the number of Mario related games to a unecessary number, that i also dont really care. So it's all fair game.
 
Last edited:
Maxrunner said:
someone is dogpiling me? who?
Edit: Anyway its just my opinion on the whole marvel thing. Obviously millions of people think otherwise, and i do agree that Nintendo sometimes pushes the number of Mario related games to a unecessary number, that i also dont really care. So it's all fair game.
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uh, the four people that already quoted you before me, lol. was just using a phrase.
 
rêverie said:
not to jump onto the dogpile that is already happening to you (and not to mention, i have no interest in marvel either) but, i do think this is a different case. it seems the most amount of marvel fatigue is found in the movie/tv industry, where marvel has produced an overwhelming amount of content. the games industry, and especially with this game as it is developed by sony themselves and not some shitty movie-licensed title, is not really in the same realm.
Click to expand...
I do wonder how that will change if Insomniac starts turning into a super-hero factory like they seem to be
 
Lugia667 said:
I do wonder how that will change if Insomniac starts turning into a super-hero factory like they seem to be
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if spider-man 2 and wolverine become Sony's best-selling first-party games this generation, I have no doubt Sony will force Marvel on them for probably the next decade unless they are also forced to make a GAAS (which would also probably be a Marvel game)
 
Lugia667 said:
I do wonder how that will change if Insomniac starts turning into a super-hero factory like they seem to be
Click to expand...

SpaceGodzilla said:
if spider-man 2 and wolverine become Sony's best-selling first-party games this generation, I have no doubt Sony will force Marvel on them for probably the next decade unless they are also forced to make a GAAS (which would also probably be a Marvel game)
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welp, i do feel like my comment will have a soon-to-be expiration date as i do see this possibly coming to fruition lol.
 
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JRPGHurtsWallet said:
To be fair there’s been 32 films in the MCU universe and 4 games? There’s been 50 Super Mario games alone, not counting spin-offs like Tennis, Strikers, etc. so it does go both ways.

If it’s popular, people will buy it in droves.
Click to expand...
Insomniac’s Spider-Man and the Square Enix games aren’t in the MCU
 
0
We’re close to the next sales dump at the end of October anyway right? Probably no reason to reveal Wonder’s sales since they’ll be revealed then anyway
 
welp…!



for reference, SMO was the fastest selling super mario before this.

it’s 9AM EST, so maybe once seattle gets to business hours we’ll get a US tweet.
 
What does that even mean? “Fastest selling game”? Did the game go flying off the shelves faster than any other Mario game
 
0
Phendrift said:
We’re close to the next sales dump at the end of October anyway right? Probably no reason to reveal Wonder’s sales since they’ll be revealed then anyway
Click to expand...
November 7th for the six months earnings call, but that covers April through the end of September. It's possible Nintendo share early Super Mario Bros Wonder sales there but not guaranteed because it released after the six month reporting period ended.
ziggyrivers said:
Does Nintendo release numbers that take into consideration digital?
Click to expand...
Yes, in their fiscal releases.
 
MisterSpo said:
November 7th for the six months earnings call, but that covers April through the end of September. It's possible Nintendo share early Super Mario Bros Wonder sales there but not guaranteed because it released after the six month reporting period ended.

Yes, in their fiscal releases.
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They had released numbers for Odyssey, right? Even tho it was an October game
 
ziggyrivers said:
They had released numbers for Odyssey, right? Even tho it was an October game
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I don't remember. I know they did a press release to confirm it was (at the time) the fastest selling Super Mario title in the US and Europe, but I don't know if they announce figures early in their fiscal briefing.

That being said, it's mainline Super Mario, so it wouldn't surprise me if they share figures on November 7th, even if it's just the first weekend or week or something, or a comparison to other Mario launches on Switch. But it's not guaranteed simply because it launched outside the reporting period and so they don't have to share info if they don't want.
 
Famitsu Sales: Week 43, 2023 (Oct 16 - Oct 22)

01./00. [NSW] Super Mario Bros. Wonder <ACT> (Nintendo) {2023.10.20} (¥5.980) - 638.634 / NEW
02./00. [PS5] Marvel's Spider-Man 2 # <ACT> (Sony Interactive Entertainment) {2023.10.20} (¥8.164) - 77.348 / NEW

Japan sales comparison for first week.
 
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Hmmm .... assuming that 2 week figure means first 10 days and now actually 14 days, I think even then that makes it pretty unlikely it beat Spider-Man 2, which sold 2.5 million in a day.

Kind of what was expected, Spider-Man might have had a slightly bigger launch or about the same, but it will be beaten in legs pretty decisively.
 
SpaceGodzilla said:
kinda of expected since like last of us part 2 and GORW they had bigger openings than the originals but overall had much worse legs
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Well, some people have such levels of fanboyism that they didn't expect it lol

Though this thread is about Holidays rather than launch which overall are very unlikely to go in Spider-Man's favor.
 
AngryAlchemist said:
Though this thread is about Holidays rather than launch which overall are very unlikely to go in Spider-Man's favor.
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true,true but just something to observe since it's becoming more common for sequels that are pretty close to playing like the original (look at TOTK legs so far)
 
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AngryAlchemist said:
Well, some people have such levels of fanboyism that they didn't expect it lol

Though this thread is about Holidays rather than launch which overall are very unlikely to go in Spider-Man's favor.
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Who knows? SM2 in the UK dropped to No.3 last week (week 3) but Mario Wonder is still No.1
 
SNP said:
Who knows? SM2 in the UK dropped to No.3 last week (week 3) but Mario Wonder is still No.1
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Well I'm not saying it isn't already beating Spider-Man 2 though. It actually probably is, lol. I'm simply saying for the launch period it is pretty unlikely, and that the lead will get even more dominate for Wonder by the Holiday season.

If you were to graph their sales right now, it would probably be like crossing beams by the end of week 2 / start of week 3.
 
yeah more one sided than I expected tbh.
Super mario wonder was truly incredible even if spiderman 2 knocked it out of the park too
 
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Super Mario Odyssey which launched at the same time as SMBW had 9070K shipped in it's first quarter but still Wonder is the fastest out of the gate with 4.3M sellthrough in two weeks.

That should tell us something about the holiday legs for a new Mario game.
Fully expect SMBW to reach if similar if not higher end result than Odyssey in it's launch quarter which more than likely means it's going to outsell Spidey 2 as well.
 
Zemya said:
It's hard to establish who wins in sales if we don't have a simultaneous sales report

Ultimately who tf cares
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Need my time to win or else the other side wins and I lose. This year has been awful for games so I focus on sales date, more important than actual games. Especially in countries I don't live in.
 
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