News Officially from Nintendo: Annoucement of next console this FY, Direct In June (no Switch 2 at direct)

[Pokemaniac]

It's not as if there isn't a precedent for that. Sony took a very similar stance, only to follow it up with a very prolonged period of cross-generation support for their biggest games.

Granted, Sony is also in a perpetual competition with Microsoft to shoot themselves in the foot as many times as they possibly can. And while Microsoft might have had the upper hand in that competition for the better part of the past 20 years, Sony is certainly trying their best. I doubt Nintendo has much intention of joining that particular competition.

Switch will undoubtedly receive long tail support for quite some time, which will probably mostly manifest mostly as cross-gen games since there's no reason for it not to, but jumping from there to all the games being cross-gen is quite a leap, especially when it comes to certain types of evergreen titles like Mario Kart.

Frankly put, it's extremely unlikely that if the hardware is so iterative as people are asking for, that the newer games would have any "new experiences" that couldn't feasibly be scaled down. We're so far beyond the age where the power differences alone enable easy meaningful differences to the types of games Nintendo make that you'd see in the early years of a consoles life, that they wouldn't be hurt by being cross gen.

Something like TOTK couldn't have been cross gen because no doubt it's already pushing the Switch hardware, but there's also zero chance you get anything like TOTK in the first years of nay console because it's the kind of game that would require years of work knowing exactly what the hardware is capable of and designing around it.

I don't think Mario kart will be cross gen, but I also would put money down on that 100% being a business decision and not one driven by technical limits at all.

That will be probably be somewhat true in the abstract, but for many of them, including a Switch 1 version would substantially change how the games are concretely being built.

Also if anyone can figure out how to integrate ray tracing into gameplay, it's Nintendo.

 

[Adulfzen]

Would your excitement be diminished at all if the next 3D Mario and Mario Kart will also be playable on the Switch Lite and Switch OLED?

I doubt either of those two will be crossgen but I'd still be excited yes. I'm still of the opinion that there will be a crossgen period but it'll more likely be for remasters/smaller games rather than once (or twice) in a generation "big" titles such as a brand new Mario Kart, 3D Mario or Smash.

Mario Kart especially wouldn't make much sense crossgen imo because it'll be an evergreen system seller they can release potentially next year and the current Switch is already more than well served with Mario Kart 8 DX

 

[MisterSpo]

I wouldn't underestimate either the business incentive to keep your evergreens exclusive to your new hardware, or the creative desire at EPD to work with technology that enables new ideas in flagship games.

 

[Bonejack]

I wouldn't underestimate either the business incentive to keep your evergreens exclusive to your new hardware, or the creative desire at EPD to work with technology that enables new ideas in flagship games.

Would i put anyone from the big main teams on making native Switch 2 ports for Switch evergreens? Nope. Those folks are to make new games.

Would i put new, more inexperienced people on making native ports or at least "4K patches" (not the best wording, but you understand)? Absolutely. This would be a perfect project to get such people accustomed to the workflows and pipelines.

Basically, just like Monolithsoft used the Xeno 1 Switch port as a training project for new employees.

 

[Charamiwa]

I sleep well thinking that currently somewhere in Spain Mercury Steam is probably cooking a Dread sequel for the Switch 2, and that it'll probably release early in the console's life.

 

[Homura]

The "announcement" wasn't retweeted by any of the official Nintendo accounts...
I actually wonder if Nintendo didn't expect for it to go as viral as it did.

 

[Bonejack]

The "announcement" wasn't retweeted by any of the official Nintendo accounts...
I actually wonder if Nintendo didn't expect for it to go as viral as it did.

The boss of NoE tweeted about it on his private account.

It's something.

 

[ILikeFeet]

The "announcement" wasn't retweeted by any of the official Nintendo accounts...
I actually wonder if Nintendo didn't expect for it to go as viral as it did.

probably more that they are waiting for something more "marketable". it's not really time for the marketing machine to start so no point is putting it in the main marketing channels

 

[Pokemaniac]

The "announcement" wasn't retweeted by any of the official Nintendo accounts...
I actually wonder if Nintendo didn't expect for it to go as viral as it did.

They clearly don't want to really draw attention to it yet. If they did, we'd have a trailer at least announced by now,

 

[Sparkling Hootle]

been gone from here for a bit, but wanted to chime in to say I am SO EXCITED!

and now we got a lot of hype between now and June xD

 

[spekkeh]

The 2016 earnings report makes no mention of Switch forecasts for 2017 despite it launching in March so there's the precedent.

Page 9 of the 2016 report:

Nintendo is also devoted to the development of a gaming platform codenamed "NX" with a brand-new concept, which will be launched in March 2017 globally

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2016/annual1603e.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwjNz7DdoP6FAxWR8wIHHWFTCA4QFnoECA8QAQ&usg=AOvVaw0MYnF0bv3T8V1vuGflVH2s

It was there. There's no precedent.

Anyway from the current Q&A just released:

At the same time, this fiscal year will be the year in which preparations for a successor to Nintendo Switch begin in earnest, and we believe that it is most important to maintain the momentum of Nintendo Switch while also preparing for a later-reduced model. Rather than focusing too much on a single year's profit level, we have positioned this year as a year in which we will prepare for the future of our company, achieve sustainable growth, and work to improve our corporate value over the long term.

It's not releasing this FY, don't do this to yourself.

 

[Dekuman]

probably more that they are waiting for something more "marketable". it's not really time for the marketing machine to start so no point is putting it in the main marketing channels

Yep. This was the equivalent of the 3DS announcement coming in a press release. The reveal is when the socials will signal boost.

 

[Charamiwa]

The "announcement" wasn't retweeted by any of the official Nintendo accounts...
I actually wonder if Nintendo didn't expect for it to go as viral as it did.

This tells me this was an announcement purely from the very top and that the subsidiaries around the world weren't in on it, or at least weren't asked to forward it.

 

[Ricimer]

Page 9 of the 2016 report:

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2016/annual1603e.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwjNz7DdoP6FAxWR8wIHHWFTCA4QFnoECA8QAQ&usg=AOvVaw0MYnF0bv3T8V1vuGflVH2s

It was there. There's no precedent.

Anyway from the current Q&A just released:


It's not releasing this FY, don't do this to yourself.

Link to the new Q&A?

 

[ILikeFeet]

Link to the new Q&A?

 

[Christo750]

I sleep well thinking that currently somewhere in Spain Mercury Steam is probably cooking a Dread sequel for the Switch 2, and that it'll probably release early in the console's life.

next year, if the timeline is consistent.

 

[Mediking]

Not too late to add Themes to Switch, Nintendo lol

 

[Guaraná]

june direct is the last hope for Prime 4 on Switch.

The dream will be dead if we don't have anything on that presentation.

 

[OctoSplattack]

The 2016 earnings report makes no mention of Switch forecasts for 2017 despite it launching in March so there's the precedent.

Eh, it technically does. They never gave an explicit forecast for the Switch alone, yes, but they did still have it reflected in their financial forecast for the fiscal year. Of course, a lack of precedent doesn't say for sure whether or not the Switch successor system will release within the fiscal year. If they become 100% certain that they can launch it before the end of March 2025, they probably have the freedom to simply revise their outlook.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

It will have been over nine years since we announced the existence of Nintendo Switch back in March 2015.

Will have been? It already is have been as you are announcing it now.

Actually their new hardware forecast for Switch is 13.5M, which is only 1.5M below their previous forecast. I would be very surprised if they release the successor this financial year.

However close they get to 13.5m is going to depend much more on October-December 2024 than January-March 2025. Really I think that 13.5m is pretty high with or without a successor next ~March, so I wonder what they have up their sleeve. Something like a notable price cut or new model could certainly goose Switch 1 sales and keep them going even once Switch 2 is here.

Nintendo also forecasted lower profits, so no, the successor isn’t there.

A Switch 2 late in the fiscal year would only be a drop in the bucket. If every new Switch 2 owner buys 10 games, it will probably be outsold by Switch 1 games for the year 6:1, and they're probably not selling the hardware for way more than they're paying to make it.

Would your excitement be diminished at all if the next 3D Mario and Mario Kart will also be playable on the Switch Lite and Switch OLED?

Yes. If I'm waiting 8 years for a new 3D Mario instead of 4, I want it to have been for a good reason: doing things not feasible on Switch 1.

 

[Ylork]

june direct is the last hope for Prime 4 on Switch.

The dream will be dead if we don't have anything on that presentation.

Metroid Prime 4 have been promised on Switch. Metroid Prime 4 have always listed on Nintendo document for Switch with TBA.

Nintendo knows it must keep its promise

 

[thoughthaver]

It's not releasing this FY, don't do this to yourself.

is nintendo really gonna announce the switch 2 like a year before it actually releases tho

 

[Mr Swine]

I’m a day late but I’m glad it’s going to be announced soon!

 

[spekkeh]

is nintendo really gonna announce the switch 2 like a year before it actually releases tho

Gamecube: officially announced 2 years and 4 months before release
Nintendo DS: officially announced 1 year before release
Wii: officially announced--well this one was known about for years, but presented to the public 2 years and 5 months before release
3DS: officially announced 11 months before release
Wii U: officially announced 1 year and 7 months before release
Switch: officially announced 11 months before release

Now 11 months from now would be April 2025, but it hasn't been officially announced yet (it has been referenced, but if you want to compare it with the Switch, this was first referenced two years before release together with the DeNA deal). The announcement will happen sometime this fiscal year. Then you could calculate another 11 months on top or however unprecedented shorter you may think it releases this time.

The crucial bit of information missing from the above release schedules however, is that--whether it's 11 months or 1.5 years, Nintendo has never released a console in a FY without mentioning it in the outlook of that FY. Both the Wii and 3/DS, the shortest cycles, were announced before or at the FY briefing that we just had, and where the Switch 2 emphatically wasn't announced. So nah I'm pretty incredulous Nintendo is going to pull something out of a hat for this FY.

 

[Pennington]

' "Make an announcement about successor" --> "wording does not mean they will announce it" '

Do you mean "reveal" it visually? I'm confused. They said they will make an announcement.

Basically, yes. You got the meaning of what I was trying to say luckily.

Crafting statements on the internet certainly takes skill to convey the right messages. Nintendo's obviously much better at it than me!

 

[Triistan]

Anyway from the current Q&A just released:


It's not releasing this FY, don't do this to yourself.

IMHO, they aren’t sure about the timing release yet, obviously they want to release it as early as possible but it seems they aren’t confident about releasing it by this FY end.

Team May 2025 here we go.

 

[spekkeh]

IMHO, they aren’t sure about the timing release yet, obviously they want to release it as early as possible but it seems they aren’t confident about releasing it by this FY end.

Team May 2025 here we go.

Yeah it's of course possible, especially if you factor in Brazil's remarks, and he obviously knows a lot more about this than I do (and admittedly I'm a bit of a glass completely empty kind of guy). But I'm not sure I really buy it.

If we assume the rumors are true and Switch 2 was delayed because of software, then I think it's a pretty safe bet Tokyo EPD is the only one that can hit the breaks on a hardware launch, I.e. the next 3D Mario needed some more time in the oven. Now the argument seems to be that Nintendo will copy the Switch 1 launch and release at the end of the fiscal year, but I don't really see the point, knowing that
1. They're not looking at a loss year like with the Wii U
2. It may annoy the investors by releasing a new platform without mentioning it at the annual shareholder meeting
3. It will set a hard deadline on 3D Mario to be (un)finished at launch

My guess (but it's a complete guess) would be they'd rather be on the safer side in all aspects and aim at early next FY. Where May 2025 indeed would be a more likely candidate.

 

[Homura]

Inb4 the delay is because Pokemon Legends is a launch title and GameFreak is shitting the bed like always.

 

[Linkstrikesback]

Inb4 the delay is because Pokemon Legends is a launch title and GameFreak is shitting the bed like always.

Or perhaps the pokemon company just doesn't care what Nintendo is doing regards to new consoles, really are making a switch 1 game, and they'll get there a couple years after launch, just like every handheld transition prior to this one, where pushing a new console has never been something TPC have cared about, but whose to say.

Yes. If I'm waiting 8 years for a new 3D Mario instead of 4, I want it to have been for a good reason: doing things not feasible on Switch 1.

Launch period titles are never the ones that really do anything not feasible on the previous hardware, because being able to do those kinds of things takes years of experience to build up.

The suggestion that you'd enjoy something less just because it's on previous hardware is so completely absurd and I am glad the general populace at least says "no, that's obviously daft" being abundantly clearly shown from sales patterns.

 

[Yavga]

Or perhaps the pokemon company just doesn't care what Nintendo is doing regards to new consoles, really are making a switch 1 game, and they'll get there a couple years after launch, just like every handheld transition prior to this one, where pushing a new console has never been something TPC have cared about, but whose to say.

Well, seems like something has already been going on for a while if this tweet is anything to go by. Which wouldn't be that strange considering Nintendo even brought them closer in-house, not to discredit what you said but nice seeing some rumblings for software already.

 

[ILikeFeet]

Well, seems like something has already been going on for a while if this tweet is anything to go by. Which wouldn't be that atrange considering Nintendo even brought them closer in-house, not to discredit what you said but nice seeing some rumblings for software already.

Be careful when using Centro leaks. They have a poor reputation for a reason

 

[Leo]

Well, seems like something has already been going on for a while if this tweet is anything to go by. Which wouldn't be that strange considering Nintendo even brought them closer in-house, not to discredit what you said but nice seeing some rumblings for software already.

"There will be Pokémon games on the next Nintendo console".

This is non news.

 

[Xorhan]

Well, seems like something has already been going on for a while if this tweet is anything to go by. Which wouldn't be that strange considering Nintendo even brought them closer in-house, not to discredit what you said but nice seeing some rumblings for software already.

This is a step below Midori randomly leaking unverifiable codenames

 

[Concernt]

I presently expect March 2025. Both 3DS and Switch were internally delayed from their planned release date, and both launched in March. History is repeating.