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Don't forget the price drop that has still yet to happen, and the units that could push
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Sales Data Nintendo Switch worldwide sales top 129.53 million (3.91M in the last quarter), biggest Q1 ever for Nintendo in revenue and operating profit
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LegendofLex
Cappy
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A lot of people talked about 3DS as if it was a big success, but honestly the pitiful software sales were a signal that this wasn't true at all.
Switch is a night and day difference, but once we get through FYQ2 sales it'll be interesting to see if the software sales are really in a healthy enough place to keep the platform going. Right now first-party sales are heavily driven by Zelda, later in the year it'll be Mario. It's unclear yet whether other titles are gonna keep pulling numbers like they would have earlier in the cycle. (Zelda accounts for about 150% of the YOY increase in software sales, which means they'd be down significantly without Zelda.)
I hope people don't mistake this quarter's record revenues and profits for sustainable platform health; it's heavily driven by two events: Mario Movie and Zelda. Nintendo has never had this happen before, and they don't have any more of those events in the can after this, at least that we know of.
Galgavias
Koopa
I have no doubt that's partly why Nintendo is releasing Mario Wonder when they are (+Mario movie hype). It's why NSMBU Deluxe has sold as well as it has. It was a cheap and family friendly game for parents to buy their kids as a 'pack in' when buying them a Switch. I don't think it's ludicrous to reason that Wonder can do numbers that are there or thereabouts over time for the same reason.
But doubling that to 30 million sales? That puts it a whopping 5 million or so over Odyssey, the best selling Mario platformer on Switch by some margin, and also the one with the highest acclaim. Wonder would have to develop a TOTK-esque hype-nado to even get close to selling that much, and I don't think 2D platformers have that effect these days, sadly.
Z0m3le
Bob-omb
While they could do this, and the report does say that the Switch Lite does have more profit than the OLED model and thus could have a price drop to at least $179, I think a new model that is smaller and fits in the pocket better, is another option that could actually lead to a burst of sales and interest. There is even a very similar device in terms of size and layout that I think makes sense for this Switch "Mini" model:
Nintendo can do a lot to push more sales of the Switch after this FY, the main one is just to keep releasing games for it, we saw that 3DS didn't fall off a cliff when Switch came out, a lot of that had to do with pricing, but also the OG Switch isn't really a good handheld for kids IMO. Switch 2 is seemingly going to have an 8inch screen, that makes the contrast far more apparent, the above is a 6.2 Switch Lite, an 8 inch Switch would just not look like a handheld IMO.
Kartina
theprocessbroke
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I mean, 2d Mario has always been more popular than 3d Mario, I don't see why that wouldn't be the case even here.
The biggest boon of Mario wonder is that it doesn't need the same hype that TotK had, it's a more appealing game for the casual market and has perfect synergy with the Mario movie plus being the big holiday title so I expect explosive sales in the same vein as pokemon but with better legs, 30mil doesn't seem that absurd to me especially since both ds and wii 2d Mario sold over 30mil
Yup. Wouldn't make sense to release one so soon when Switch is trending up, not down. I hope the rumors are correct and we get a hardware revision next year though, if only so the switch can definitively beat PS2. imo Switch already beat PS2 because so many people bought PS2 as a dvd player and never played a game on it, but definitive would be definitive.
Linkstrikesback
Bounty Hunter
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- He
They weren't really 'pitiful' though. They were well ahead of the game boy, game boy advance attach rates, as well as that of the psp. The only dedicated handheld ahead of it was the DS (~6 instead of the~5 of the 3ds), and this is even up for debate, because the 3DS had a significant digital store, and as is still the case, Nintendo did not include digital only software sales in those numbers. Once you take the digital sales in to account, in all likelihood the 3DS was the highest of any Nintendo handheld in terms of attach rate with ease.
Rabash
Rattata
- The OG Switch by itself has sold more than the Game Boy Advance
- The Switch OLED has sold more than the Wii U
- The Switch Lite has sold almost as much as the GameCube
JorgenRaft
Chain Chomp
I still think later next year is likely for Switch 2. Once we get past the Mario Wonder holiday bump, things will probably start dying down again to prepare Nintendo nicely for a new console.
That is unless they have some other giant system seller up their sleeve for the Switch but idk what else would really do that at this point. There are always price cuts and/or another Pokemon.
That is unless they have some other giant system seller up their sleeve for the Switch but idk what else would really do that at this point. There are always price cuts and/or another Pokemon.
Lugia667
Inkling
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Price drops don't really seem to happen anymore, heck the opposite does
Galgavias
Koopa
You're asking for a game launching late in a system's life to outsell every game that came before it and by a huge margin, just at a time when sales are beginning to die down. Only Odyssey has got close to 30 million thanks to it being on sale for 6 years, combined with it being the highest acclaimed Mario platformer on the system.
From there, it's a big gap to NSMBU Deluxe, which has been on sale for 4.5 years and has only just got halfway to 30 million. If you're generous and add sales from the original NSMBU to it, then it's around 22 million sold over 11 years. That's the closest barometer we have currently to how Wonder will perform. It's still a ways off the magic 30 million mark.
NSMB Wii sold well because of the novelty of four player Mario platforming on a console which thrived on multiplayer games. The novelty isn't there anymore. Maybe I'm wrong and the market is ready to go crazy for a 2D platformer in a way it hasn't for two decades, but currently the evidence is pointing to a comfortable 10-15 million seller for Mario Wonder, which is still a great number.
This seems to be against everything that's in the OP. Switch sales aren't slowing down and switch software is overperforming.
Dcubed
Paratroopa
There is no way on this planet that SMBW gets outsold by the nearly 11 years old NSMBUdx port. Not a chance.
25 million is the floor. No 3D Mario game has ever outsold its 2D Mario counterpart on the same console and it's not about to happen now; especially not after the Super Mario Bros Movie.
It is when you consider the ridiculous amount of resources thrown at the platform (far, far more R&D expenses and manpower than any previous handheld, by several orders of magnitude), and that the 3DS was basically responsible for propping up the entire company during this period. It wasn't enough to sustain them (which is why they took those heavy losses that generation).
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I do wonder if the Switch has another 25M units to pass the Ps2 in it. Seems to be a genuine chance they'll make that 15M unit goal for the fiscal year. But does it sell another ~14-16M units with a new system on the way and then released?
I'm gonna be honest there is a very high ceiling for this game. Especially after this Mario movie which already boosted Mario games. Kids will see ads of Wonder come September and October and they will be reminded of how much they loved the movie.
Yes mario wonder will sell 10-15M by the end of the year, I agree.
I'm gonna be honest there is a very high ceiling for this game. Especially after this Mario movie which already boosted Mario games. Kids will see ads of Wonder come September and October and they will be reminded of how much they loved the movie.
Guaraná
Paratroopa
Switch mini OLED, give me nintendo, give me noooow!
D.Lo
Rattata
I would freaking love a Switch Micro. I recently got a lite and with a grip added it's the first time I've had portable Switch be comfortable for me. Even smaller would be even better.While they could do this, and the report does say that the Switch Lite does have more profit than the OLED model and thus could have a price drop to at least $179, I think a new model that is smaller and fits in the pocket better, is another option that could actually lead to a burst of sales and interest. There is even a very similar device in terms of size and layout that I think makes sense for this Switch "Mini" model:
Nintendo can do a lot to push more sales of the Switch after this FY, the main one is just to keep releasing games for it, we saw that 3DS didn't fall off a cliff when Switch came out, a lot of that had to do with pricing, but also the OG Switch isn't really a good handheld for kids IMO. Switch 2 is seemingly going to have an 8inch screen, that makes the contrast far more apparent, the above is a 6.2 Switch Lite, an 8 inch Switch would just not look like a handheld IMO.
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Deleted member 645
Guest
Maybe there is another reason they expect it to sell less
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Deleted member 2
Guest
PS5 just got a regional price drop weeks ago.
Sales happen all the time with other consoles (one just happened days ago with the Xbox Series X/S), and the right price drop for the right amount of time at the right retailers could be a huge push in unit sales.
Even a permanent $50 price drop in the Switch after the Switch 2 is announced would be a huge push.
Arynio
Tektite
You guys share very valid points and you might very well be right. If any platform can do it, that's certainly the Switch, but that would depend on many hypotheticals. If they release a budget SKU shortly before or after the successor, targeting a price-sensitive or low-engagement demographic who won't even care about the new platforms, then yes, it's possible.
I do believe that the actual numbers will be a bit lower than what you're envisioning (~17M this FY would be a notable overperformance relative to the forecasted 15M, after two consecutive FY overestimating the HW forecast, and basically a flat result YoY).
In line with my call for caution from my previous posts, according to Nikkei Asia, Furukawa stated the following (https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Me...ed-Nintendo-to-record-profit-in-first-quarter):
Lugia667
Inkling
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So, let's see....
-Performance clearly superior to a Raspberry Pi 3, probably.
-Built-in storage enough for installing as many as 1-2 games
-Voice comm requiring the use of an app on your cell phone
-Paid subscription online service feature list competitive with Heat.net
-Peripheral pricing so high and bizarrely lopsided with the initial hardware bundle that it makes buying a second Switch for parts a sensible option
...that's pretty dire, but it's still a much more compelling product than the Wii U at first reveal, simply by virtue of being a handheld. Might be somewhat more successful than the Wii U since it's not trying to leverage a poorly thought out archaic tablet as a unique selling point this time, but the cost of ownership is looking astronomically high. It's arguably higher than the major console competition, given the peripheral pricing, anemic built-in storage, low value paid online, etc., so it's abandoning a lot of the appeal that would otherwise come with being a handheld.
Handheld form factor and performance, but with $60 game pricing, paid online, tiny storage, and obscene peripheral costs. Worst of both worlds, arguably, and the mediocre mobile SoC isn't going to do it any favors when people hook it up to their living room setups. I seriously doubt I'll want to stretch out Switch games onto my 75" 4K HDR TV.
Not exactly situated to take the market by storm with all that and a very thin launch lineup. Not something that's easy to root for as a consumer, either, since Nintendo loaded up on anti-consumer business decisions here. It's telling that first shipment pre-orders are still available.
No.
I totally agree a sort of Switch "micro" would be perfect for this.While they could do this, and the report does say that the Switch Lite does have more profit than the OLED model and thus could have a price drop to at least $179, I think a new model that is smaller and fits in the pocket better, is another option that could actually lead to a burst of sales and interest. There is even a very similar device in terms of size and layout that I think makes sense for this Switch "Mini" model:
Nintendo can do a lot to push more sales of the Switch after this FY, the main one is just to keep releasing games for it, we saw that 3DS didn't fall off a cliff when Switch came out, a lot of that had to do with pricing, but also the OG Switch isn't really a good handheld for kids IMO. Switch 2 is seemingly going to have an 8inch screen, that makes the contrast far more apparent, the above is a 6.2 Switch Lite, an 8 inch Switch would just not look like a handheld IMO.
My only potential concern whold be analogue sticks. I don't know if sticks similar to the ones the 3DS had would be good enough to offer an acceptable experience in many more complex Switch games.
Kartina
theprocessbroke
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you know, after so many years reading this copypast I still don't know what the hell a Raspberry Pi 3 is
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Z0m3le
Bob-omb
The ones on the retro pocket 3 from my post are similar to joycon analogs, they feel very similar.
Skies
Bob-omb
It's humorous seeing other places trying to rationalize this not being possible.
The numbers don't lie. The Switch is on pace to overshot the unit forecast for the current fiscal year. The Switch will most likely hit 140M - 145M by the end of fiscal year. It's a pretty safe bet to say it will sell another 15 million units with half a year left on the market alone, a holiday with the Switch 2 likely sold out everywhere, plus transition year(s) to Switch 2.
And that's not even factoring in where the 2024 Pokemon game will land, which going by past history could well be OG Switch exclusive or at least cross-gen.
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For the sake of argument, lets say that 160m is the magic number to hit.
Nintendo is supposedly a little ahead of their FY plan of 15m. Also, they still have a new 2D Mario game coming out in October and holiday sales to get that big boost. On the other side, lets assume that Switch 2 launches next September/October. While we don't know anything for sure, $399 is probably the floor for the price. Nintendo knows that everyone won't jump on right away. They need to still sell cheaper units. The OG Switch and Switch Lite will still be available for a while after the next system launches. Switch sales won't completely die overnight. So lets predict.
FY23- 18m (143.62m)
FY24- 12m (155.62m) Half the year will be alone, second half will supposedly be with the Switch 2.
FY25- 7m (161.62m)
That puts the Switch right in PS2 territory. This is definitely reachable.
Edit- @Skies fixed my math
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JorgenRaft
Chain Chomp
It's basically riding the line between passing it and not passing it at this point. Just depends on how 2024 and beyond goes.
Whatever the outcome, the top 3 are probably gonna be very close by the end.
Whatever the outcome, the top 3 are probably gonna be very close by the end.
Dcubed
Paratroopa
They are literally the same parts. Switch OEM analogue sticks are a common part produced by Alps Alpine that pretty much all of these Android-based handhelds used until Hall-Effect sticks became all the rage.
Luminoth9090
Moblin
Switch hardware compared to other consoles
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Skies
Bob-omb
I think there might be a typo or math error here.
18M in FY23 would place Switch at 143.62. 15M (forecasted) would place it at 140.62.
- Pronouns
- He/Him
Ultimately the questions for "beating ps2" will be
1) Is the next system backwards compatible or not
2) Will Switch continue to see some kind of support either via cross gen titles or old games that play on the new thing from Nintendo/3rd parties
3) Will Nintendo give the Switch some kind of discount to try and make it even more budget friendly
4) Will Nintendo continue to produce enough new units/will they need to reduce Switch 1 production too much to make more Switch 2
5) Do all of the above help keep demand for the original Switch high, or does demand flatline with everyone wanting the new thing.
Too much we don't know
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1) Is the next system backwards compatible or not- Good point
2) Will Switch continue to see some kind of support either via cross gen titles or old games that play on the new thing from Nintendo/3rd parties- I will bet my life that Pokemon 2024 will be on Switch 1. 2025 will probably have a few things.
3) Will Nintendo give the Switch some kind of discount to try and make it even more budget friendly- Maybe, but putting a $199 Switch Lite up against a $399 Switch 2 seems enticing already. I agree that a couple of 2025 bundles would go a long way.
4) Will Nintendo continue to produce enough new units/will they need to reduce Switch 1 production too much to make more Switch 2- No clue, you are absolutely right.
5) Do all of the above help keep demand for the original Switch high, or does demand flatline with everyone wanting the new thing.- I think the price of the new system will be a sticker shock for the average/casual consumer initially, so while demand will be high, I could see some people being fine with buying the "lesser" Switch, especially in smaller markets/territories.
acezam
Rattata
Thanks to @pierre485
- Switch
- The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom
- Mario Kart 8 Deluxe
- Pokémon Scarlet/Violet
- Animal Crossing: New Horizon
- Super Smash Bros. Ultimate
- The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild
- Super Mario Odyssey
- Pokémon Sword/Shield
- Super Mario Party
- New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe
- Los 61 juegos distribuidos por Nintendo que han vendido al menos 1 millón de copias.
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Deleted member 4720
Guest
for those who know, why did nintendo's stock drop so much in augest 2021. Shouldn't it be going up if sales are this good
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While I agree a $199 Switch lite could be compelling next to a $399 Switch 2, a $149 or $99 would open up the device to a new lower income threshold. Same if the original Switch model that can dock drops to $249 or $199. The fact the Switch hasn't seen any kind of price cut and minimal software bundling (outside of everyone's favorite Mario Kart 8 Deluxe holiday bundle) gives the system a unique opportunity.
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- Any
I think 6 to 7m this holiday is entirely possible, but I could be wrong. Also, there's no way they're going to kill the Switch anytime soon even with a new console. They're eventually going to give it a price drop, bundles, etc and it's going to sell for at least a few more years and pass the ps2 with ease.
Earthbounder
Boing!
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At this point I believe the Switch can keep selling well until the doom of humanity if Nintendo chooses not to release a successor. This thing's crazy.
- Pronouns
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Possibly a (slightly delayed) response to the OLED model not being a true pro? I think the real reason is that shareholders are typically stupid and easily spooked
7threst
Hello, lady of the house speaking?
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Yep. I think Nintendo would be smart to do it the way Sony did when PS2 hit the market and they came out with the PSX as a low threshold to get into the ecosystem. Doing this while transitioning to Switch 2 might cater to a new audience that maybe won't be present day 1 on the new console.
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Deleted member 4720
Guest
i get they are probably dim but surely these high sales get through to them lol
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Hehe, that was a fun day.
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Strong financial results showing actual, real profits can have less effect than a news article quoting a pessimistic analyst forecasting lower potential profits lol
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Deleted member 4720
Guest
oh yea lol
i remeber listening to yanis varufakis saying something like people saying a crash is coming is what makes the crash come
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I like to think of it as a rope bridge that's about to snap. The bridge will snap sooner or later, but the panic that "the bridge is gonna snap" makes everyone run across it putting far more stress on it as opposed to trying to just fix the bridge from snapping.
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This analogy doesn't quite work, because there's no equivalent to "working together to fix the bridge" when it comes to stock market valuation lol
Cantaim
Shriekbat
Sales were down 10% compared to the previous year, and expectations were readjusted by some analysts who believed that with the pandemic boost being over Nintendo would not have continued strong performance in the following years. Personally, I didn't believe in this view at the time and bought the dip lol.
I expect Switch 2 to be $400, which is expensive, meaning it will be in Nintendo's interest to have a cheaper alternative until they can provide a cheaper Switch 2 model or good bundles. What that means is that they'll keep pushing Switch as a cheap alternative for kids and also release cross-gen games 2-ish years. Switch sales will undoubtedly slow down significantly, but my gut feeling is that it won't be quite as sharp of a decline as previous generations.
TheQuietone
The Dread Captain
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There's an old saying regarding stock. Sell on news, buy on rumor. Stocks always take a dip after an earnings release for Nintendo no matter if the news is good or bad.
