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Sales Data Nintendo Switch ships 3.07M in FYQ4, 125.62M LTD, forecast of 15M for current FY. New hardware not expected before March 31, 2024.

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That headline (the linked website’s headline, not this topic’s title) is such a fundamental misunderstanding of the source that it’s hard to believe it’s not intentional.
 
I think if it weren't for the Mario movie and TOTK, then people would be right in being skittish about these projections and worrying about the Switch running out of steam, but these two events should be enough to give the Switch one last push before we start the waiting game proper. I think people underestimate the impact the Mario movie could have on software. Here in the UK the E-shop has been utterly dominated by Mario games since the movie came out. Lets say Little Jimmy sees the movie and gets obsessed with it. Nintendo then knock the price of a Switch down a few bob combined with making the likes of Odyssey and Mario Kart 'players choice' titles. That's then Little Jimmy's Christmas present all decided.

I think this is what Nintendo are banking on while they get all their ducks in a row for a successor console next year.
 
meatbag said:
Their initial FY forecast for software was initially 210 million, which they revised to 205 million after Q3.

They sold 213.97 million this FY. Mario Movie must have boosted Mario games more than expected haha.
Click to expand...
mario movie came out after FY ended
 
The forecast alone is pretty telling that there's no Switch 2 incoming this fiscal year unless it's at the very tale end of it.
Overall very solid quarter for Nintendo all things considered, a bit surprised that Prime didnt sell a bit more honestly, though it's probably a good result considering how they launched it.

meatbag said:
Their initial FY forecast for software was initially 210 million, which they revised to 205 million after Q3.

They sold 213.97 million this FY. Mario Movie must have boosted Mario games more than expected haha.
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Mario movie wasnt released at the end of the FY =)
But I do think it is going to have a pretty big effect on this quarter though, in combination with Zelda it could be rather huge even.

Edit: ah sorry, didnt see it was adressed already.
 
It really looks like we'll be getting the next switch for holiday 2024. Kind of crazy but not that shocking. It will come close to an 8 years life cycle which makes sense with how leggy the console and it's software have been.
 
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thoughthaver said:
they just put out a billion dollar film they'll be fine. then again investors get scared of their own shadow so
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Investors usually are more concerned about future growth than past or present success. Nintendo has literally two known products coming total after Friday, that's all. Investors are right to be a bit concerned about the future pipeline when sales are dropping and they have no indication of what to expect outside of a couple of niche games.

And considering the Mario movie took like 7-8 years to come together it's hard to expect another $1B blockbuster coming anytime in the foreseeable future.

Now, Nintendo certainly doesn't have to care about investors but from the POV of investors I think they're rightfully concerned.
 
Skittzo said:
And considering the Mario movie took like 7-8 years to come together it's hard to expect another $1B blockbuster coming anytime in the foreseeable future.
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Don't worry, they can release the next one in like three years by reusing the Mushroom Kingdom map.

mario-nervous-laugh.gif
 
Over 200 Million again this year and 180 Million software projection are crazy good for the 7th year. The Switch and Nintendo as a whole are in a good state. Compare this to the last few years of Wii, WiiU, 3DS, where the consoles were basically dead. If they need more time for the next hardware, they can take it without hesitation. I expect them to announce it in early 2024 and release in summer 2024.
 
Sturmgeist said:
I bet all those people who said we were getting a Switch 2 in 2022 are feeling a bit nervous right now
Click to expand...

But the dev kits

I think that Nintendo will be fine, they have their biggest game in years releasing in 3 days, and still a few titles such as MP4, a Mario 2D or a Donkey Kong which could give the Switch an extra boost for the next 12 months. 2024 was, and still is my bet. A relatively safe one at that.

With that being said, I think that Nintendo will casually mentionned their new machine in 2023.
 
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I, for one, am very satisfied knowing I won't be spending a bunch of money in new hardware for at least a whole year;

Bring a Donkey Kong game for the current Switch and everything will be fine!
 
Nintendo has not said anything about next generation console. Why is the false fact being spread that it will not be released this fiscal year?
 
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Sturmgeist said:
I bet all those people who said we were getting a Switch 2 in 2022 are feeling a bit nervous right now
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I remember when, even well into 2020, the general consensus was that “BotW2” would be a holiday 2020 or at worst Q1 2021 game, and people told me I was excessively pessimistic for predicting a Q4 2021 release, there’s just no reason to think that it would take that long!

The Nintendo community is nothing if not optimistic. That’s why I love y’all <3
 
The summer will actually go very well with Zelda in May and Pikmin 4 in July. It's the fall and holiday that are going to be in an absolute free fall. Other than a 3d mario I just don't see how they can have a solid holiday hardware sales wise. I'm curious to see what their plan is.
 
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Gay Bowser said:
I remember when, even well into 2020, the general consensus was that “BotW2” would be a holiday 2020 or at worst Q1 2021 game, and people told me I was excessively pessimistic for predicting a Q4 2021 release, there’s just no reason to think that it would take that long!

The Nintendo community is nothing if not optimistic. That’s why I love y’all <3
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Switch 2/pro is definitely launching alongside TotK though, it just HAS to!
 
BassForever said:
Ubisoft did the same thing with Sparks of Hope, and reporters even teased the game only looked as good as it did due to unannounced hardware!
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I still remember when TotK was delayed last March and they showed that small 6 second clip and some were saying that's definitely not Switch footage.
 
another source

asia.nikkei.com

Nintendo expects Switch sales to slow further this year

'Mario' blockbuster could help give revenue a boost but console worries linger
asia.nikkei.com asia.nikkei.com
To offset the Switch's decline and get back on the growth track, many are calling on the company to introduce a new console.

One is rumored to be due out next year. "Development seems to be progressing well," a source close to Nintendo told Nikkei Asia. "But a product launch won't happen before next spring at the earliest."
Click to expand...
 
Skittzo said:
Investors usually are more concerned about future growth than past or present success. Nintendo has literally two known products coming total after Friday, that's all. Investors are right to be a bit concerned about the future pipeline when sales are dropping and they have no indication of what to expect outside of a couple of niche games.

And considering the Mario movie took like 7-8 years to come together it's hard to expect another $1B blockbuster coming anytime in the foreseeable future.

Now, Nintendo certainly doesn't have to care about investors but from the POV of investors I think they're rightfully concerned.
Click to expand...
Nintendo really should have listened to the dazzling intelligence of investor advice and abandoned gaming consoles in favor of smartphones. I am absolutely astounded by the absolute panic here.

If the final life of the switch is about 7 years before a successor is released, then it will be just the same as what happened for PlayStation 5 or Xbox series. Nothing to justify screaming disaster. The fact that we do not yet know what Nintendo will release after July does not mean that they will not release anything. Even an incompetent financial analyst must be able to understand that.

A total of 140 million units sold before the release of the next model would be both an excellent result and a goal that is unrealistic only in the hysterical world where if we know nothing on May 9, 2023, This means that Nintendo as a company will become a Bakery. These overreactions are exhausting, and I don’t see why we should take them into account.
 
LukasManak22 said:
I still remember when TotK was delayed last March and they showed that small 6 second clip and some were saying that's definitely not Switch footage.
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I remember when Monster Hunter Rise was revealed in September 2020 and Eurogamer asked the developers if it was running on upgraded Switch hardware because, according to the Internet, it couldn't possibly be on baseline Switch.
 
15M sounds a tad optimistic. Perhaps they have some more special editions up their sleeve, but even that won't generate enough interest. It would be mad if they actually hit that number though
 
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mazi said:
another source

asia.nikkei.com

Nintendo expects Switch sales to slow further this year

'Mario' blockbuster could help give revenue a boost but console worries linger
asia.nikkei.com asia.nikkei.com
Click to expand...
Interesting tidbit. I still doubt that Nintendo conclusively ruled out new hardware this fiscal year, simply because they're rarely that definitive in conference calls, but a late spring/summer 2024 launch could well be on the cards. If the games and device are ready by then, they don't need to wait till late 2024 to launch.
 
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My guess is we'll start hearing more concrete rumors about Nintendo's next hardware end of this year/early next year.
 
BassForever said:
My guess is we'll start hearing more concrete rumors about Nintendo's next hardware end of this year/early next year.
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TBF we already know quite a bit about the hardware.

It's all the other stuff we're in the dark about, like the timing and the software support and the branding.
 
Makes sense that Nintendo will probably be taking their time with their next hardware transition. The Switch user base is so large. They have the luxury to coast till then with some decent releases, not to mention Zelda alone can help them through the year.

You got Pikmin 4 and DLC to help along the way they really dont need too much for the rest of the year. As much as people will probably hate on the thought of saying, but they really Don’t NEED to do a direct this summer. They could twitter drop 2-3 games or have a mini and still be sitting pretty.
 
The Captain said:
Makes sense that Nintendo will probably be taking their time with their next hardware transition. The Switch user base is so large. They have the luxury to coast till then with some decent releases, not to mention Zelda alone can help them through the year.
Click to expand...

It's not really coasting, if anything I would say it's the opposite. The hardware has to wait until they're 100% confident they have a significant software slate for the whole launch year to people to want to jump.

They can't afford to fumble the launch like they did for both the Wii U and the 3DS, because it could have catastrophic consequences since they don't have anything else to rely on if they do.
 
Hartmann said:
That's not what Nintendo said.
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it's a reputable source citing a source close to nintendo.

i feel like this song and dance has been done 5 or 6 times at this point, where very reliable sources and analysts say nothing's coming, but people refuse to believe because nintendo didn't explicitly say it.
 
Linkstrikesback said:
They can't afford to fumble the launch like they did for both the Wii U and the 3DS, because it could have catastrophic consequences since they don't have anything else to rely on if they do.
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I have to wonder what’s going through their minds when it comes to the next hardware. Everyone expects a boost in preformance but how much of a boost can justify a switch owner to jump immediately? Would it be too assuming to expect Nintendo to make a version of ToTK running at 60fps with 4k DLSS?

Nintendo have always had their next hardware focus on a theme/gimmick. Sure you can make the argument that Nintendo have changed especially in leadership and how things go down the production/approval pipeline.

But I find it hard to believe they are going to just bump the specs of the Switch and call it a day (Lots of people, myself included, wouldn’t mind this) but we’ve never seen them make it that simple. If it IS a gimmick I’m curious to see how they would make it something people will want to jump ship for.

I’m sorry Nintendo I dont feel like jumping off the switch yet because your new console’s gimmick is having 20 cup holders and an LED that blinks when your drink is a bit on the warm side.
 
Samus95 said:
A new Mario 2D with massive marketing and a new style and the movie behind, can help a lot in the 15 million switches
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when you factor in that over the 2009 holiday season the Wii was sold over 3 million times thanks to a price drop + NSMB Wii and the market is bigger now, that's def possible.

www.reuters.com

Nintendo shares jump on strong holiday sales

Shares in Nintendo Co Ltd <7974.OS> jumped 7 percent on Wednesday after strong holiday sales in the United States helped erase market concerns that momentum for its Wii game console had peaked.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com
 
The Captain said:
I have to wonder what’s going through their minds when it comes to the next hardware. Everyone expects a boost in preformance but how much of a boost can justify a switch owner to jump immediately? Would it be too assuming to expect Nintendo to make a version of ToTK running at 60fps with 4k DLSS?

Nintendo have always had their next hardware focus on a theme/gimmick. Sure you can make the argument that Nintendo have changed especially in leadership and how things go down the production/approval pipeline.

But I find it hard to believe they are going to just bump the specs of the Switch and call it a day (Lots of people, myself included, wouldn’t mind this) but we’ve never seen them make it that simple. If it IS a gimmick I’m curious to see how they would make it something people will want to jump ship for.

I’m sorry Nintendo I dont feel like jumping off the switch yet because your new console’s gimmick is having 20 cup holders and an LED that blinks when your drink is a bit on the warm side.
Click to expand...
I mean it probably will be that simple. There really isn’t anything they can add or do that would make for an enticing “gimmick.” Most of the “gimmicks” out there are either too expensive, too niche, have other issues, or a combo of these things.

Ultimately what will sell people on the new hardware will be Nintendo software & continuity.
 
9-Volt said:
They said the same thing before Lite and OLED reveals, so obviously they don't consider hardware revisions as "new hardware". They meant a whole new console specifically.
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I think you’re wrong. IIRC they didn’t say no new hardware in the year the OLED was released. That actually fueled speculation when their tune switched up from the previous couple years so a lot of people expected new hardware to release (OLED)
 
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Translation error or not, Nintendo needs to know that this is the last viable holiday season for Switch. If they try to Weekend at Bernie's the Switch through all of 2024, I fear they lost the plot. That or something horrible went wrong while they R&Ded their next system.
 
Just wanted to say how much I appreciate this forum and its lack of snark. People talking about this topic on other forums are being so rude to eachother and straight up toxic. Just again, wanted to thank fami for keeping a level head, even about contentious topics like this
 
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