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Sales Data Nintendo Switch ships 3.07M in FYQ4, 125.62M LTD, forecast of 15M for current FY. New hardware not expected before March 31, 2024.

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Luminoth9090

Luminoth9090

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Nintendo's earnings report for the 4th quarter of the fiscal year ending March 31st 2023 has been published, this covers the three month period from January 1st to March 31st 2023. The Nintendo Switch shipped 3.07 million units of hardware and 41.85 million units of software bringing lifetime totals to 125.62 million for hardware and 1036.15 million for software. For the full fiscal year Nintendo Shipped 17.97 million units of hardware and 213.97 million units of software.

Year over year quarter 4 hardware sales are 25% (1.04 million) down from 4.11 million and software sales are 25% (13.92 million) down from 55.77 million.
Year over year fiscal year hardware sales are 22% (5.09 million) down from 23.06 million and software sales are 9% down (21.09 million) from 235.06 million.

Nintendo are forecasting 15 million units of hardware and 180 million units of software shipped for the fiscal year ending March 31st 2024.


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Hardware

Switch Hardware Q4: 3.07m
Regional Split Q4: Japan 550k , America's 1.34m, Europe 870k, Other 300k
Model Variants Q4: Standard 910k, Lite 620k, Oled 1.54m

Switch Hardware Total: 125.62m
Regional Split Total: Japan 29.59m, America's 49.00m, Europe 32.58m, Other 14.44m
Model Variants Total: Standard 89.58m, Lite 21.02m, Oled 15.02m

Global Shipment History

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Software

Switch Software Q4: 41.85m
Regional Split Q4: Japan 7.53m, America's 18.90m, Europe 11.44m, Other 3.98m
Tie Ratio Q4: 13.63

Switch Software Total: 1036.15m
Regional Split Total: Japan 200.15m, America's 456.27m, Europe 300.91m, Other 78.82m
Tie Ratio Total: 8.25

Global Shipment History

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Nintendo's earnings report information

No plans for new hardware this fiscal year, article from Eurogamer
www.eurogamer.net

Nintendo: no plans for Switch successor before April 2024

Nintendo does not expect to launch any new or upgraded Switch hardware in the coming financial year, set to end on 31st…
www.eurogamer.net www.eurogamer.net
 
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Awesome. But what about financial figures ? Nintendo made around $3.2 billion net profit & around $3.7 billion operating profit last FY22/23 compare to the Playstation $1.8 billion operating profit. Crazy
 
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15M for the next FY is definitely ambitious. Have to wonder how they plan on achieving that. TotK is bound to boost the system, but it can’t be the only factor.
 
9-Volt said:
15m for 23-24 FY? Honestly that sounds crazy. They're planning to sell 15m in its 7th year! Even the DS couldn't do that, sold only 7m units in its 7th year.

Makes me wonder if there's actually a final SKU, something like Switch Lite OLED...
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That's quite a bold number yeah, and their software lineup after ToTK doesn't look that strong either(or should I say, almost non existent). I'm looking forwards to seeing what they will announce in the near future.
 
Those numbers are some what troubling for the FY since we know Zelda will be a large chunk of that.
 
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The 15M forecast probably also means we won’t see the next Nintendo system for the next FY.
 
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    • Yeah we still don't know the second half of this current FY for releases, so I'm not gonna scoff at 15mil projected sales.
     
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    9-Volt said:
    15m for 23-24 FY? Honestly that sounds crazy. They're planning to sell 15m in its 7th year! Even the DS couldn't do that, sold only 7m units in its 7th year.

    Makes me wonder if there's actually a final SKU, something like Switch Lite OLED...
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    Switch has a more long term vision and the content it's getting (like the biggest Zelda ever) is a sign of things to come. I think 15 will be difficult but it will probably be well over 10 none the less.
     
    Shooting my shot. Nintendo is gonna screw up their next hardware transition in a big way.

    In the systems 7th year on market and sales slowing down suddenly, it's definitely a baffling decision to not have new hardware ready.
     
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    Dark Cloud said:
    Damn dude straight up said no new system before March 2024 lmao. So holiday 2024 it is.
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    Unless i'm missing something, he didn't say that.

    Go to the Hardware thread. A different translation has him saying that good old "Nothing to announce" in addition to some sentence that no revised or new hardware would be factored into the annual forecast.

    From my point of knowledge, this is VGC taking quotes out of context and "backing" them up with what some analysts think.

    Not saying there will be new hardware, just that VGC might be writing incorrect information.
     
    Switch did indeed have the highest FY6 of any console ever, beating the DS' 17.53 million by 440 thousand. Nintendo's forecast of 15 million for FY7 would beat the 14.71 million record by PS2. But remember they did overshoot their previous forecast last year so it may not happen.

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    Bonejack said:
    Unless i'm missing something, he didn't say that.

    Go to the Hardware thread. A different translation has him saying that good old "Nothing to announce" in addition to some sentence that no revised or new hardware would be factored into the annual forecast.

    From my point of knowledge, this is VGC taking quotes out of context and "backing" them up with what some analysts think.

    Not saying there will be new hardware, just that VGC might be writing incorrect information.
    Click to expand...
    If they’re wrong then that’s good. But that pissed me off. Because VGC is purposefully misleading to get more clicks
     
    I feel like a combo of TOTK and the Mario movie should be enough to juuuust about keep interest in the system up, and that's likely what Nintendo are banking on here to hit those targets. Could also do a cheeky price cut if really necessary.

    I did wonder if we might see new hardware in Q1 2024 to cap off a big year for Nintendo, but alas. See you all September - November 2024 for that one folks.
     
    No new Hardware until Fall '24 (supposedly) is no big deal if, and it's a big if, the plan things properly.

    15mln in 7th year is no joke, in order to reach the target they may wanna have a small price drop (even just for holiday season) and a robust slate of releases., no way they can achieve this with just remasters and no Mario/big casual games.

    Then by April '24, every month is good to announce the new hardware in big fashion.
     
    Vyplo said:
    No new Hardware until Fall '24 (supposedly) is no big things if, and it's a big if, the plan things properly.

    15mln in 7th year is no joke, in order to reach the target they may wanna have a small price drop (even just for holiday season) and a robust slate of releases., no way they can achieve this with just remasters and no Mario/big casual games.

    Then by April '24, every month is good to announce the new hardware in big fashion.
    Click to expand...

    Well, time's going to start ticking for that robust slate of releases come June. Because after July, they literally have no game dated, only DLC.
    (Disclaimer: MP 4 and ... Detective Pikachu being TBD doesn't count as dated.)
     
    I'd wait for the official English language transcript of the conference call before making any definitive calls about what was or wasn't said.

    Nintendo rarely concretely rule out new hardware in the fiscal year material. They did in the 2020/21 fiscal year, but they did that in a pre-prepared briefing and not as a response to investor questions. Responses to investor questions are usually less definitive.
     
    I think nintnedo will have their remasters, 2D Mario, a few more new first party games this H2. They announce the Switch 2 in the next few months and have it release March 2024. Sales are slowing down anyways and 2D Mario will be your last real big title for this holiday. It’s a good transition to a new system only 4-5 months after 2D Mario releases
     
    Of course, both BotW and the Switch launched in March, it only makes sense that BotW2 and the Switch 2 would launch in the same month (May), just one year apart 😎
     
    Bonejack said:
    Well, time's going to start ticking for that robust slate of releases come June. Because after July, they literally have no game dated, only DLC.
    (Disclaimer: MP 4 and ... Detective Pikachu being TBD doesn't count as dated.)
    Click to expand...
    Yeah my point. the really wanna sell 15 mln units? no way they can achieve this with the momentum fading, no price drop and just a bunch of DLCs after Pikmin 4.
     
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    Sorry, a question:
    "no new hardware expected before March 31, 2024" it's an official communication by Nintendo or an interpretation of topic author / web analyst?
     
    There's a pretty notable mismatch between the VGC headline of 'no new hardware expected' and what they're actually reporting?
    According to Bloomberg, Furukawa added that no new or upgraded hardware is factored into Nintendo’s annual forecast.

    “Sustaining the Switch’s sales momentum will be difficult in its seventh year,” Shuntaro Furukawa said via Bloomberg. “Our goal of selling 15 million unit this fiscal year is a bit of stretch. But we will do our best to bolster demand going into the holiday season so that we can achieve the goal."
    Click to expand...
    Obviously, this shouldn't be viewed as proof Nintendo are waiting to announce hardware before they factor shipments into the annual forecast, but it's also pretty simply true that, if Nintendo have hardware to announce, they can modify their forecasts at a later date. Perhaps they haven't quite settled on exact launch timing for new hardware and aren't sure yet if it'll make the fiscal year (maybe a potential spring 2024 launch).

    There's also this usual tidbit tucked away in the results:
    “Other software publishers also plan to release a wide variety of titles, and we will work to invigorate the platform by supplementing existing titles with a continuous stream of new titles and add-on content.”
    Click to expand...

    Now, I don't mean to alarm anyone, but Nintendo are suggesting that they plan to release more games, which is certainly newsworthy and somewhat surprising.
     
    I doubt you tell investors to expect a down FY if you're anticipating launching new hardware even at the end of said FY. While yes, the wording isn't as definitive as the headline, the headline is likely more accurate to reality then the straw grasping you're seeing here. Even if you think 15 million is unrealistic for the Switch this FY and something closer to 10m-12m is more probable, we're talking about 10m-12m in year 7, when the next generation of competitor hardware is out. That's an insane result for year 7 without any kind of price drop.
     
    Dark Cloud said:
    I think nintnedo will have their remasters, 2D Mario, a few more new first party games this H2. They announce the Switch 2 in the next few months and have it release March 2024. Sales are slowing down anyways and 2D Mario will be your last real big title for this holiday. It’s a good transition to a new system only 4-5 months after 2D Mario releases
    Click to expand...
    wouldn't be unprecedented to load the back end of the Switch with Remakes/Remasters. 3DS had the M&L Remakes, Mario Party Top 100 (remade mini games) and Luigis Mansion which was a lot. I kinda like that because there haven't been a lot remakes for the Switch because of the Wii U ports
     
    Misleading headline or not, I am not expecting new Hardware before next spring.

    Curious to see the holiday game.
     
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    Go Nintendo is now reporting the “no hardware before March 2024”. And just like that folks misinformation will spread like wildfire by the media
     
    I just realized VGC might be confusing Furukawa with the analyst Fukuyama who said they expect no new hardware, since their names sound similar
     
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    9-Volt said:
    15m for 23-24 FY? Honestly that sounds crazy. They're planning to sell 15m in its 7th year! Even the DS couldn't do that, sold only 7m units in its 7th year.

    Makes me wonder if there's actually a final SKU, something like Switch Lite OLED...
    Click to expand...

    Doesn't sounds crazy, they sold 3.07m in previous quarter, so if we count Holiday season quarter 6-7m, other 3 quarters 2-3m, we get 12-16m units,
    so 15m is optimistic but achievable.

    But they even said its a bit of strech:

    "Our goal of selling 15 million unit this fiscal year is a bit of stretch. But we will do our best to bolster demand going into the holiday season so that we can achieve the goal."
     
    0
    It's going to be interesting to see what happens. There's three potential scenarios from (imo) least to most likely:
    • They will announce new hardware at a later date for a late FY24 release (March '24, 7 years after the Switch) and revise their forecast
    • The new hardware will narrowly miss FY24 and release sometime in late Spring/early Summer
    • The new hardware will release in late 2024, potentially November

    I don't really see how they plan to keep going without new hardware past early '24 but I'm always open for surprises.
     
    Bar Charts for Software and Hardware

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    Nintendo's forecasts of 15 million for hardware and 180 million for software are very high for a console this old and I will be surprised if they hit either of them.
     
    Bonejack said:
    Unless i'm missing something, he didn't say that.

    Go to the Hardware thread. A different translation has him saying that good old "Nothing to announce" in addition to some sentence that no revised or new hardware would be factored into the annual forecast.

    From my point of knowledge, this is VGC taking quotes out of context and "backing" them up with what some analysts think.

    Not saying there will be new hardware, just that VGC might be writing incorrect information.
    Click to expand...
    If it's wrong Nintendo should totally issue a statement correcting it!
     
    Luminoth9090 said:
    Bar Charts for Software and Hardware

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    Nintendo's forecasts of 15 million for hardware and 180 million for software are very high for a console this old and I will be surprised if they hit either of them.
    Click to expand...

    To be fair even 18m units and 214m software was also very high for console this old.
     
    Luminoth9090 said:
    Bar Charts for Software and Hardware

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    Nintendo's forecasts of 15 million for hardware and 180 million for software are very high for a console this old and I will be surprised if they hit either of them.
    Click to expand...
    I have to assume there's at least one fairly major title coming later this year (my bet has been on 2D Mario for a while), but I wonder how much of this is Nintendo being speculative and counting on the Super Mario Movie and Tears of the Kingdom to help them retain a higher degree of sales momentum than might be expected. We'll have to wait for the official transcript, but they don't seem very bullish about 15 million; it feels more like they're setting 'best-case scenario' targets and will adjust depending on how things go.

    Or perhaps they'll be more imaginative and introduce something like Player's Choice/Nintendo Selects discounts for subscribers to try and boost both software sales and subscriptions.
     
    Guaraná said:
    price cut?
    Click to expand...
    A price cut seems like the only way. A console going into its 7th year without a price cut is unprecedented. Can't fault Nintendo though since that's more to do with COVID manufacturing prices, if it wasn't for that I think we would've seen a price cut as normal.

    That and a Player's Choice line seems like the best strategy right now.
     
    Pragmatically, the Switch probably got a "price cut" by not raising the price with inflation out of control and the exchange rate of the yen being terrible.
     
    25% drop YoY considering the age of the system and we’re coming out of the pandemic feels about right and nothing too concerning.

    I expect they get to their 15M units forecast via price drops. If there was a new model the hardware thread would know about it, as manufacturing would be starting soon as we’re 6 months out from the winter holiday shopping period.

    New system after Q1 2024 seems highly likely now. Sorry #TeamDrake2023.
     
    shoptroll said:
    25% drop YoY considering the age of the system and we’re coming out of the pandemic feels about right and nothing too concerning
    Click to expand...
    Heck, it’s phenomenal for a system in its seventh year. Software is also selling well, outdoing Nintendo’s own projections.

    thoughthaver said:
    they just put out a billion dollar film they'll be fine. then again investors get scared of their own shadow so
    Click to expand...
    Yeah I never got why people put so much stock in investors (heh)
     
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