Sales Data Nintendo Switch ships 3.07M in FYQ4, 125.62M LTD, forecast of 15M for current FY. New hardware not expected before March 31, 2024.

[tender]

my guess:

• price drops for the holiday, 50 dollars on every line
• new mario game this holiday
• new special editions + bundles this holiday
• switch 2 launches november 2024
• metroid prime 4 is the botw that crosses the launch window, playable on both gens of hardware, comes out same day as switch 2

 

[Simbinha]

That's quite the bold number for the seventh year. Yes, there's Tears of the Kingdom, but i wonder if even that will make it push 15m consoles, as i believe most of the people who are playing ToTK already owns a Switch? Interesting to see how that will fare...

 

[Sejes]

my guess:

• price drops for the holiday, 50 dollars on every line
• new mario game this holiday
• new special editions + bundles this holiday
• switch 2 launches november 2024
• metroid prime 4 is the botw that crosses the launch window, playable on both gens of hardware, comes out same day as switch 2

I want to believe Prime4 is cross gen but I just don't know if the franchise has that kind of clout. On the other hand, I'd put Prime4 this holiday but it seems like they'd need to put a Mario game out this holiday to capitalize on the movie right?

These are wild times where zelda won't be the cross gen game.

 

[acezam]

Thanks to @pierre485

@Pierre485_

• Fire Emblem Engage.

• Metroid Prime Remastered

• Kirby's Return to Dream Land Deluxe

• Pokémon Escarlata y Púrpura

• Splatoon 3

• Mario Kart 8 Deluxe

• Animal Crossing: New Horizon

• Xenoblade Chronicles 3

• Kirby y la Tierra Olvidada

• Nintendo Switch Sports

• Bayonetta 3

• Pokémon Legends Arceus

...

 

[acezam]

• Mario Party Superstars

• Mario Strikers: Battle League

• Super Smash Bros. Ultimate

• The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild

• Super Mario Odyssey

• Pokémon Espada y Escudo

• Super Mario Party

• Ring Fit Adventure

• New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe

• Luigi's Mansion 3

• Super Mario 3D World + Bowser's Fury

• 60 juegos distribuidos por Nintendo han logrado vender al menos un millón de copias

• 41,85m de juegos vendió Switch en el trimestre, para 213,97m en el año fiscal, con estos números, Switch ha vendido 1.036m de juegos, Nintendo espera vender 180m en el siguiente año fiscal que finaliza en marzo 2024

• Las ventas digitales representaron un récord para Nintendo, 56,7% del total fueron por esa vía

• Otras gráficas

...

 

[Hocot8]

the stability in sales for Mario Kart 8 Deluxe is pretty insane.

 

[BlueManifest]

Darn, total lifetime sales looking like 145-150 million, will be just short of best of all time

 

[Deleted member 4629]

I think Nintendo could pull off 15 million this fiscal year if they play their cards right. I feel like the Mario movie and TOTK are already going to give the Switch a bit of a boost for late Spring/early Summer. To reach that number they definitely can't just ride on Pikmin 4 and DLC for the rest of the year though. Here's hoping for a general Direct in June with some juicy new games!

 

[thoughthaver]

Yeah I never got why people put so much stock in investors (heh)

the dutch inventing stocks which is why i curse them everyday

 

[Deleted member 4629]

the dutch inventing stocks which is why i curse them everyday

You're welcome
(Don't buy too many tulips )

 

[Apopheniac]

Interesting to see Switch Lite sales up from Q1 22 as docking models are down. Could be anomalous, could be an indication of a shift in purchaser profiles.

 

[Johna X]

I bet all those people who said we were getting a Switch 2 in 2022 are feeling a bit nervous right now

To be fair, as someone who's been team 2025 since like year 1 and only recently realized 24 (tbh I felt gen 7 and gen 8 kinda lasted too short but i've realized it's the standard and this gen will be an outlier) I do wanna clarify I think the belief was more a Switch Pro 2022, not a straight up Switch 2. Switch 2 has only cropped up cause it has been so long, for a while the speculation was all on a Pro. I do think 5 years is way too short, especially for something so leggy. That being said 7.5 years as I expect may be pushing it.

 

[juuso]

The tail in the BotW sales is ridiculous

 

[Johna X]

I have to wonder what’s going through their minds when it comes to the next hardware. Everyone expects a boost in preformance but how much of a boost can justify a switch owner to jump immediately? Would it be too assuming to expect Nintendo to make a version of ToTK running at 60fps with 4k DLSS?

Nintendo have always had their next hardware focus on a theme/gimmick. Sure you can make the argument that Nintendo have changed especially in leadership and how things go down the production/approval pipeline.

But I find it hard to believe they are going to just bump the specs of the Switch and call it a day (Lots of people, myself included, wouldn’t mind this) but we’ve never seen them make it that simple. If it IS a gimmick I’m curious to see how they would make it something people will want to jump ship for.

I’m sorry Nintendo I dont feel like jumping off the switch yet because your new console’s gimmick is having 20 cup holders and an LED that blinks when your drink is a bit on the warm side.

Honestly I think, aside from Joycon enhancement things, the most likely gimmick is a return to what's been lost. One was very succesful, but implementing it in a modern form requires an iteration on what was not nearly as...

The Switch 2, in this timeline, has a clampshell design, yet in a way where the bottom screen can be detatched and re-attached, likely in a similar way to joycons (admittedly its hard for me to picture this working with clampshell, 2 screens laid out sure but the folding yet attaching is maybe physically impossible). In handheld mode it is just a replication of the DS and 3DS, and the bottom screen is used for similar purposes. In console mode it can be removed and used as a second screen, moreso aiming to be used as the second screen on a DS ala the Wii U DS VC rather then replicating Wii U type gimmicks, but the similarity may be enough to completely can this idea off the bat

 

[Jbone916]

Adding in TotK, it looks like the Switch will soon have 9 20-million sellers and 20 10-million sellers, which is nuts!

I do wonder if there is one more Switch game with a chance to make it an even 10 for the 20M category. Any ideas anyone?

 

[The Captain]

Honestly I think, aside from Joycon enhancement things, the most likely gimmick is a return to what's been lost. One was very succesful, but implementing it in a modern form requires an iteration on what was not nearly as...

The Switch 2, in this timeline, has a clampshell design, yet in a way where the bottom screen can be detatched and re-attached, likely in a similar way to joycons (admittedly its hard for me to picture this working with clampshell, 2 screens laid out sure but the folding yet attaching is maybe physically impossible). In handheld mode it is just a replication of the DS and 3DS, and the bottom screen is used for similar purposes. In console mode it can be removed and used as a second screen, moreso aiming to be used as the second screen on a DS ala the Wii U DS VC rather then replicating Wii U type gimmicks, but the similarity may be enough to completely can this idea off the bat

Hey I actually like this Idea! It’s just hard to imagine how they would otherwise incorporate DS and 3DS NSO without a second screen and still have it be intuitive and not have it shoehorned in, so this kinda works.

Perhaps if they HAD to go for a design that utilizes DS and 3DS games they would use the Samsung Folding technology they have on their phones, just spitballing though.

 

[Dardan Sandiego]

Adding in TotK, it looks like the Switch will soon have 9 20-million sellers and 20 10-million sellers, which is nuts!

I do wonder if there is one more Switch game with a chance to make it an even 10 for the 20M category. Any ideas anyone?

 

[Johna X]

I mean as much as 2d mario to tie in makes sense I do wonder if even 2d mario may as well just be saved for switch 2 at this point. It should not be launch, NSMBU shows how that goes, but it clearly still has some clout, the Odyssey beating NSMBUD ignores the fact it's a port

not that odyssey isn't impressive, I just moreso view it as "wow 3d mario sold over 20 mil" and less "3d mario beat 2d lfg"

It will sell great this year, perhaps better then any other year, but it also will migrate less people to switch. It's just hard for me to imagine someone seeing the movie, wanting a mario expirience who doesn't have a switch, and deciding only to do it when it's all new when, realistically, this person hasn't played NSMBUD anyway

I remember when people speculated a Mario game using the movie's artstyle, when people speculated a Sonic movie game etc, well this is more likely then any of that as just "new 2d mario same year but not directly affiliated with the movie in anyway", it still is something they might just not care about

though I just remembered Miyamoto's hint, yes of course mario will show up in a direct eventually but his wording to me felt more imminent, honestly what made me lean towards a June direct happening, so hmm

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

If hardware drops as much this year as it did last year it makes 14m. So I don't think 15m is that ambitious for a forecast that will be revised several times.

I doubt you tell investors to expect a down FY if you're anticipating launching new hardware even at the end of said FY. While yes, the wording isn't as definitive as the headline, the headline is likely more accurate to reality then the straw grasping you're seeing here.

The first few months of a new machine aren't going to make much difference whenever they are. Theoretically if something was a November release and early performance was similar to Switch, by the end of March its software might get to around 10% of their Switch software forecast.

 

[Jbone916]

Smash Ultimate is very close now to selling more than Smash 64, Melee, Brawl, and Smash for Wii U COMBINED!

 

[Johna X]

Smash Ultimate is very close now to selling more than Smash 64, Melee, Brawl, and Smash for Wii U COMBINED!

I still very much doubt it's the last game, but I also do wonder how they will keep pace since it will not have Everyone again. I'm sure some of it was the actual Switch mixed with the smash fans which seem to lean semi older then the average nintendo series growing into having their own finances to spend on it, but the amount of bullet points of "Everyone's back" "80+ characters" etc surely helped as well. I am not expecting a reboot, I think every EPD owned (technically every first party is but like, Mario is EPD Kirby isn't) char will return and perhaps even every first party character, but not everyone will be back, and that alone may affect perception. Ideally they'd focus in on missing first party series (AW and FDC more relevant since Ult, RH will hopefully get a boost soon though tbf smash 6 def started dev already) and singleplayer content but idk if either sells as well as just "yeah we got everyone" or even specific third parties like I doubt any Square is back

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Not as many interesting things to chart when things are now slowly trending downward, but the total software shipments compared to their previous champions still impresses and has a long way to go.

I wanted to look at what point Wii or DS software sales were like Switch's now (like, would Switch now be Wii year 3?), but it didn't really work out. Though this January-March was worse than the previous three, turns out it's still better than any for DS or Wii. When trying to forecast how much farther Switch software will go, we truly are in Uncharted Territory.

 

[Miraj]

Shooting my shot. Nintendo is gonna screw up their next hardware transition in a big way.

In the systems 7th year on market and sales slowing down suddenly, it's definitely a baffling decision to not have new hardware ready.

On top of that, it seems they're content to ride out the rest of the fiscal year mostly on TOTK. Besides Pikmin 4 in July, what else is there? Metroid Prime 4 may or may not come out on current hardware. Xenoblade 3 DLC is done, Mario Kart 8 DLC is close to being done, Pokemon will get DLC, but otherwise we have no idea what else there is to look forward to. No titles + declining hardware and relying on just one heavy hitter game is super risky.

For other platform holders, this wouldn't be a big deal as they have third parties to rely on, but the biggest sellers and the titles that move units for Switch are first party Nintendo ones, and I imagine most people who want to play TOTK already own a Switch.

 

[Lugia667]

Didn't Furukawa himsef say their would be more titles, I guess you cna believe he is lying or whatever

 

[Gay Bowser]

On top of that, it seems they're content to ride out the rest of the fiscal year mostly on TOTK. Besides Pikmin 4 in July, what else is there?

How many times do we have to go through this?

Just because games aren’t announced doesn’t mean they don’t exist.

I guarantee you they’re not going to try to ride out the entire FY on one game released in May.

 

[EnergyDrink]

I remember when, even well into 2020, the general consensus was that “BotW2” would be a holiday 2020 or at worst Q1 2021 game, and people told me I was excessively pessimistic for predicting a Q4 2021 release, there’s just no reason to think that it would take that long!

The Nintendo community is nothing if not optimistic. That’s why I love y’all <3

You know there was a pandemic that changed all plans?

 

[Gay Bowser]

You know there was a pandemic that changed all plans?

I do know about that, and so did the people insisting, well into 2020, that BotW2 would be a 2020/Q1 2021 title.

So…yeah?

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Original model Switch continues sloooowly catching up to DS Lite as Nintendo's most shipped individual model. If they don't do something like kill its production in the next year, it might make it. In the last year it shipped 6.13m and it needs 4.28m more to catch up to DSL. However, last year's numbers were more than 50% down from the year before, so if it keeps sliding it might Zeno's paradox its way to just a really close #2.

 

[Marce-chan]

Shooting my shot. Nintendo is gonna screw up their next hardware transition in a big way.

In the systems 7th year on market and sales slowing down suddenly, it's definitely a baffling decision to not have new hardware ready.

PS4, PS5 and Xbox Series all came out 7 years after their predecessors and are doing fine.
I might be wrong but I'm sure as hell PS4's 2020 FY weren't the 17,97 of Switch's FY ending 2023. In fact, I think the PS4's peak was like 20m round? So not far above this year.
They're releasing it, at the absolute latest, 7.5 years after Switch. That's just six months later than the consoles mentioned (seeing the declining years are almost as good as peaks, and it's the best 6th/7th year of any console ever, we can see why, plus COVID, they likely didn't want to release it so late at first), and six months earlier than Xbox One.
Switch will keep doing fine, it being projected to sell 15m in its 7th year is something not even DS did(not half of it).
It's getting the most ambitious title Nintendo has ever made in three days. They will have something for the holiday season that's gonna be another boost, and Mario movie is directly affecting gaming sales.
They ain't screwing a hardware transition at the very least by what we can think of rn.

 

[Beard]

Shooting my shot. Nintendo is gonna screw up their next hardware transition in a big way.

In the systems 7th year on market and sales slowing down suddenly, it's definitely a baffling decision to not have new hardware ready.

As long as they launch with some must-have software, they’ll do fine, regardless of when it releases.

 

[Marce-chan]

Their initial FY forecast for software was initially 210 million, which they revised to 205 million after Q3.

They sold 213.97 million this FY. Mario Movie must have boosted Mario games more than expected haha.

Hell yeah, and that was even before de movie actually launched!! Hype for this film was insane and the amount of people still going on lines to watch it to this day is massive. There's also that bundle for MAR10 day where you get to choose between MK8DX, NSMBUDX or Odyssey for no additional cost, and that accounted only for the tie end of the FY.

A new Mario 2D with massive marketing and a new style and the movie behind, can help a lot in the 15 million switches

Super Mario Odyssey which has been way less leggy for awhile than BotW for example, has charted for the past 3 weeks in UK. I believe NSMBUDX did too?
So just imagine what a new 2D Mario, on a holiday season after the Mario movie was literally the biggest movie launch of 2023 and will get to be the most successful animation ever can do. Not to mention TotK giving huge impulses to usually less hardware shifting quarters.

I remember when, even well into 2020, the general consensus was that “BotW2” would be a holiday 2020 or at worst Q1 2021 game, and people told me I was excessively pessimistic for predicting a Q4 2021 release, there’s just no reason to think that it would take that long!

The Nintendo community is nothing if not optimistic. That’s why I love y’all <3

I remember I was one of them lmao. But then again I was among those thinking MP4 would be 2019 back when it was announced, and a huge holiday 2021/2022 believer after the reboot lol. After September 2022 I became a hard holiday 2024 cross gen believer... Just so MPR gets shadowdropped in February 2023 lmao.

Looks like we're on track for Spring 2025 switch 2

Nah. I think it's gonna be holiday 2024. If anything I could see it coming earlier, but it probably not being released this FY... I don't really see Nintendo wanting to release a console in April/May/June. Like, for Game Cube/N64 trauma alone lol. Any other console released in those months? Saturn lol.

when you factor in that over the 2009 holiday season the Wii was sold over 3 million times thanks to a price drop + NSMB Wii and the market is bigger now, that's def possible.

Nintendo shares jump on strong holiday sales

Shares in Nintendo Co Ltd <7974.OS> jumped 7 percent on Wednesday after strong holiday sales in the United States helped erase market concerns that momentum for its Wii game console had peaked.

www.reuters.com

Exactly. It made record breaking sales for any Nintendo game(MKWii maybe only before that?), gave Wii its best holiday season and all.
A new Mario game in the same year everyone is talking about Mario and on a holiday season, hopefully coupled with a price cut or even bundle can make things we can't expect.

 

[Brock Reiher]

Any other console released in those months?

And the switch... lol

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

PS4, PS5 and Xbox Series all came out 7 years after their predecessors and are doing fine.
I might be wrong but I'm sure as hell PS4's 2020 FY weren't the 17,97 of Switch's FY ending 2023. In fact, I think the PS4's peak was like 20m round? So not far above this year.

Regarding PS4 comparison, one could say that after March 2023 Switch hardware is at a similar point as PS4 after March 2019--down from a peak ~2 years earlier, and a bit under 18m hardware for the year. For PS4 that was quarter 22 while for Switch it's quarter 25. Also FWIW the next year for PS4 was 13.5m, versus the 15m Nintendo currently forecasts.

 

[Marce-chan]

And the switch... lol

Switch released in March, which is the same month that 3DS released in NA/EU(Feb in March), GBA in Japan (that is a counter argument tho as it released overseas in June) and even PS2 in Japan(holiday overseas) and DS in EU.

Now, in April or May I don't think any console except Saturn in NA was released.

 

[Brock Reiher]

Switch released in March, which is the same month that 3DS released in NA/EU(Feb in March), GBA in Japan (that is a counter argument tho as it released overseas in June) and even PS2 in Japan(holiday overseas) and DS in EU.

Now, in April or May I don't think any console except Saturn in NA was released.

March is spring

 

[MisterSpo]

The English transcript of the investor Q&A is out now, and Furukawa did not explicitly rule out new hardware this fiscal year. The closest he came to it is this:

I cannot say anything specific about a next-generation platform at this time, but we are always working on various projects aimed at the future by asking ourselves what kind of fun proposal we can make which can possibly provide new and unique entertainment.

 

[Herb Alpert]

The English transcript of the investor Q&A is out now, and Furukawa did not explicitly rule out new hardware this fiscal year. The closest he came to it is this:

Classic AI generated non answer...

 

[Tentacle-tropes]

The English transcript of the investor Q&A is out now, and Furukawa did not explicitly rule out new hardware this fiscal year. The closest he came to it is this:

And, this is why we wait for the official text but I imagine most places running with the quotes before won’t correct themselves & pulling the earlier report. Same as we saw with the BC “quote” that was essentially a nothing burger once Nintendo’s translations came out.

 

[Hajeman]

Adding in TotK, it looks like the Switch will soon have 9 20-million sellers and 20 10-million sellers, which is nuts!

I do wonder if there is one more Switch game with a chance to make it an even 10 for the 20M category. Any ideas anyone?

That's why for latest financial year Nintendo still can made $3.7 billion operating profit because software still selling more than 200 million units a year. Miles ahead of latest Playstation FY operating profit that got only $1.8 billion

 

[MisterSpo]

Adding in TotK, it looks like the Switch will soon have 9 20-million sellers and 20 10-million sellers, which is nuts!

I do wonder if there is one more Switch game with a chance to make it an even 10 for the 20M category. Any ideas anyone?

2D Mario would be my number 1 suspect, depending on the approach Nintendo take. I think if one launches late this year, then it could go on to shift 20 million.

 

[Luminoth9090]

Regional hardware

Regional Software

 

[Luminoth9090]

The software tie ratio is now 8.25

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

I guess this actually happened last quarter, but I see Switch in the "Other" regions passed up Wii U's worldwide number.