I mean, this???
Every now and then people act like Nintendo just doesn't need literally their biggest release of the year that was announced in 2019, or that they can just push forward a 3D Mario game we don't even know the existence of to fill the gaps, or that Mario makes more sense due to the movie(like Nintendo didn't know the movie would be holiday 2022 even before they knew Zelda would be 2022).
Things just aren't this way people. It's not like Nintendo can delay their biggest release without taking a hit from it. 2020 was the only Switch year that didn't see a 10m+ release in Q4. That's because Super Mario 3D World + Bowser's Fury was delayed. Also we can't say for certain Monster Hunter Rise wasn't at some point planned for a holiday 2020 release.
If Zelda is delayed, of course we'll still have a huge lineup of Bayonetta 3, Metroid Prime Remaster, probably Fire Emblem and something else. But neither of them are new mainline Zelda, nor Pokémon, nor Mario Party, nor 3D Mario, nor Luigi's Mansion. Pokémon got remakes and then a semi-open world new instalment in January, that's not getting a new release this holiday season, let's not freak out expecting it this year people. Mario Party released last year. 3D Mario... Well, we didn't have an announcement, nor any insider claiming it to be coming this year. Luigi's Mansion won't be possible due to NLG probably being behind Mario Strikers. That leaves us with Zelda, that, shockingly, was announced in 2019 and is dated for this year.
The other possible game would be 2D Mario or Ring Fit, and those were previously announced very close to release, so they might still happen. But again: 2019 had Ring Fit, Luigi's Mansion 3 and Pokémon in the same quarter. And that was with Animal Crossing being delayed. 2018 also had Pokémon, Smash and NSMBU in January 2019. Either way all of those years had THE big star, being respectively Pokémon Sword and Shield and Smash. I won't be shocked to have BOTW 2 as THE holiday title while also having a 2D Mario and/or a big casual game in Q4.