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The people that care about backwards compatibility or having the latest console aren’t buying a Switch 6 years into its life, and they weren’t the ones buying a PS2 from 2006 onward. It’s a casual market that will still be very interested in the Switch even a year after the Switch 2 releases. Basically, the market that would buy a Switch 2 in March 2024 isn’t the same that would buy a Switch in Nov 2023.What? This makes no sense. I already addressed this point. Let's say the succ ends up at $400 - that's barely more than an OLED. If it's backwards compatible, why would anyone buy a Switch at that point? As opposed to your PS2/PS3 example where the latter was what, six times the price of the former?
Considering the Switch still sells well and hasn't had a single price cut throughout its life, I don't see why it would happen now. The only reason Nintendo would do it at this point is to counteract dampened sales from a successor announcement, which they could also just dampen by... not announcing it too early
But with that said, when would be a good time to announce a successor? Nintendo waited until the Wii sales dropped off a cliff before pushing the Wii U, and we know how that ended. If they want to push the Switch 2 with as much momentum as they possibly can, they do it soon, not years from now when the Switch is actually dead.