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Rumour New Switch model for Q4 2023

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Lord Azrael said:
What? This makes no sense. I already addressed this point. Let's say the succ ends up at $400 - that's barely more than an OLED. If it's backwards compatible, why would anyone buy a Switch at that point? As opposed to your PS2/PS3 example where the latter was what, six times the price of the former?

Considering the Switch still sells well and hasn't had a single price cut throughout its life, I don't see why it would happen now. The only reason Nintendo would do it at this point is to counteract dampened sales from a successor announcement, which they could also just dampen by... not announcing it too early
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The people that care about backwards compatibility or having the latest console aren’t buying a Switch 6 years into its life, and they weren’t the ones buying a PS2 from 2006 onward. It’s a casual market that will still be very interested in the Switch even a year after the Switch 2 releases. Basically, the market that would buy a Switch 2 in March 2024 isn’t the same that would buy a Switch in Nov 2023.

But with that said, when would be a good time to announce a successor? Nintendo waited until the Wii sales dropped off a cliff before pushing the Wii U, and we know how that ended. If they want to push the Switch 2 with as much momentum as they possibly can, they do it soon, not years from now when the Switch is actually dead.
 
HeyItsPulse said:
The people that care about backwards compatibility or having the latest console aren’t buying a Switch 6 years into its life, and they weren’t the ones buying a PS2 from 2006 onward. It’s a casual market that will still be very interested in the Switch even a year after the Switch 2 releases. Basically, the market that would buy a Switch 2 in March 2024 isn’t the same that would buy a Switch in Nov 2023.

But with that said, when would be a good time to announce a successor? Nintendo waited until the Wii sales dropped off a cliff before pushing the Wii U, and we know how that ended. If they want to push the Switch 2 with as much momentum as they possibly can, they do it soon, not years from now when the Switch is actually dead.
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I agree that the people buying a Switch this late probably don't care about being on the bleeding edge, but if they can get a device that's better in every way for $50 more, I don't see how they wouldn't. As opposed to the PS3's legendarily botched launch and poor software support that lasted for years

I just don't see the benefit to announcing the succ before the holiday season. They can probably get a bunch of people to jump in on the allure of Zelda if they just stay quiet, and announce their next system early next year. That said, they could still announce it this year and it obviously won't hurt them in the big picture, but I just don't see the upsides to it.
 
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ILikeFeet said:
yea, that definitely wasn't it. "technically advanced" isn't a problem with Switch or future devices, just "it doesn't look how I want it to"

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I don't really see how that's different? How else would you interpret it other than "It didn't look good enough to me"

Regardless it's obviously not impossible for KH3 to run on the Switch or for KH4 to hypothetically run on the succ, I just don't have faith that Square Enix will put that much effort into it when they didn't even bother porting old games natively
 
Lord Azrael said:
I don't really see how that's different? How else would you interpret it other than "It didn't look good enough to me"

Regardless it's obviously not impossible for KH3 to run on the Switch or for KH4 to hypothetically run on the succ, I just don't have faith that Square Enix will put that much effort into it when they didn't even bother porting old games natively
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Considering the state of the cloud ports, SE barely bothered putting any effort in there as well
 
If there's actually a sizeable amount of people buying a Switch in year 6+, who would instead plunk down for a next gen Switch at launch if available, I'm pretty sure Nintendo would very much prefer their money flowing into their new platform and ecosystem, not the one that is being retired.

It feels like a moot point to me anyway because:

A. Odds are, Nintendo is going to inform it's shareholders well in advance anyway.
B. Even if they did try to hide a system that's expected to launch before the end of March 2024, the entire system would leak from production in the middle of the holiday buying season anyway.
 
Lozjam said:
However, plans change all of the time.
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They really don't. A billion dollar company can't afford to be that erratic about the hardware supposed to carry their business through most of the decade.

However, narratives change all the time because those are pushed by snake oil salesmen with an active interest in generating clicks.
 
Lord Azrael said:
I don't really see how that's different? How else would you interpret it other than "It didn't look good enough to me"

Regardless it's obviously not impossible for KH3 to run on the Switch or for KH4 to hypothetically run on the succ, I just don't have faith that Square Enix will put that much effort into it when they didn't even bother porting old games natively
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Square-Enix isn't exactly a "lazy dev" when it comes to Switch, though. They've invested heavily in it, and went to great effort to bring over Dragon Quest and Nier. Nier, of all things. Why would they phone it in on Kingdom Hearts?

I suspect Disney is more at fault for this than S-E. They likely wanted the games out on Switch pronto and sought to have it coincide with Sora's Smash Bros announcement. It wouldn't be the first time Disney rushed games out the door to meet deadlines.
 
Bosintang said:
They really don't. A billion dollar company can't afford to be that erratic about the hardware supposed to carry their business through most of the decade.

However, narratives change all the time because those are pushed by snake oil salesmen with an active interest in generating clicks.
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That's completely not true. Considering we have decades of Nintendo cancelling projects, and evidence of them(even development kits too). Also, we have plenty of evidence of 1st party publishers delaying not only games, but entire consoles. Remember the 3DS? It was actually supposed to release in 2010, but it was pushed back to 2011

Also considering how insanely hard manufacturing technology is, especially with shortages. Yeah things get pushed back both publically and internally. It literally happens all of the time, and it's why Nintendo typically doesn't reveal their consoles until they have a set date. That doesn't mean there wasn't dozens of internal dates that Nintendo went through too.
 
Lozjam said:
That's completely not true. Considering we have decades of Nintendo cancelling projects, and evidence of them(even development kits too). Also, we have plenty of evidence of 1st party publishers delaying not only games, but entire consoles. Remember the 3DS? It was actually supposed to release in 2010, but it was pushed back to 2011

Also considering how insanely hard manufacturing technology is, especially with shortages. Yeah things get pushed back both publically and internally. It literally happens all of the time, and it's why Nintendo typically doesn't reveal their consoles until they have a set date. That doesn't mean there wasn't dozens of internal dates that Nintendo went through too.
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We'll have to agree to disagree then.
 
Bosintang said:
We'll have to agree to disagree then.
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There's nothing to agree, nor disagree on. There is simply fact.

I say this as Tears of the Kingdom, a game that was slated to to come in 2021, will finally get released in 2023. With that game, being a sequel to Breath of the Wild, the game that was supposed to release in 2015, but was pushed back to 2017. It was also supposed to be a Wii U exclusive, but was released on a console that was even in production when it was announced.

Need I remind you when Twilight Princess was pushed back, and developers had to crunch to get it on the Wii?

In terms of consoles, publically, the following Nintendo consoles were delayed and or cancelled:

The SNES Playstation.
Come on, this one is really famous and the reason why Playstation now exists.

N64(originally supposed to release in 1995, released in 1996).

Gameboy Advance was originally something called Project Atlantis. Was supposed to release far before the GBA, but was canned. There are development kits in the wild. It was supposed to release 1996 but was put on hold due to the massive success of the platform(where have we seen this before?). They then release the souped up GBC as a stopgap.

Then Nintendo put out a 2000 date for GBA.... Missed it then released it in 2001.

The 3DS was also delayed. As I have previously stated.

I get your ire for "leakers" and you gotta take everything with a grain of salt. But saying that Nintendo literally never has any change of plans is just untrue.
 
I'd like to share some thoughts:

I think we might have one last iteration of the Switch before the successor console. I don't see a Switch Lite OLED coming, the main point of that console is being cheaper, not just smaller (the Lite version of Switch 2 will definitely have an OLED display though). That one last iteration should be a cheaper TV-only Switch.
Portable players are well served with OLED and Lite, but some games require a TV for the full expterience, like Switch Sports or Ring Fit Adventure, and the cheaper TV-only console will attract people who might have been interested in the Switch catalog, but were not willing to buy a Switch at it's full price and don't care about portable gaming. It's something similar to Wii Mini or New 2DS XL, something cheaper to get a few more sales when the generation is ending. Imagine that Switch TV for 199$ bundled with Joycons or a Pro Controller.

Both the TV-only Switch and Switch 2 might be announced at the same time, just as newer members of the Switch family.
 
Hairway to Steven said:
They're theories, not excuses. Chillax.
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Didn’t mean to diss on your theories, wasnt my intention! I was more responding to how they sound like excuses publishers tend to give when confronted with their lack of full support on Nintendo machines.

It’s always a variety of excuses. There is a quite a list we can make from over the last 30 years.

“The parent company forced us to do the bare minimum to meet a synergy deadline…””we were too busy with newer development to put more effort in…” fits right in there. :p

Which is what I meant saying there will always be an excuse. We’ve seen it.

For the most part, publishers just don’t like to admit that their game just doesn’t have demand on a Nintendo system, can’t compete with Nintendo software on there. (To be fair, a couple of publishers have admitted this, but most hate admitting that about their titles)

Whenever you see publishers outright skip Nintendo, or provide minimum/low effort support, that above is the real reason. Everything else is the excuse.

Publisher/devs will always find a way to make it work on a platform if they think the demand/sales are there. No excuses.
 
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Lord Azrael said:
Why did you ignore the rest of their really detailed post
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Because it makes no sense to think that plans have been altered in a significant manner regarding Nintendo's next console, and we have zero indication that they have. The whole narrative around the 2022/23 model being cancelled for example is in my opinion bullshit and Olympic Straw Grasping.

Can a console be delayed by a few months? Sure, it happened even with the switch. But that's not what people mean with "plans changed" in that context, and we both know that.
Drake, or whatever you want to call it, is certainly not cancelled or pushed back by nearly 2 years unless Nintendo is willing to:

  • alienate their hardware and software partners worse than they ever have during this millennium.
  • lose millions of dollars with either tsmc or Samsung.
  • go back to the drawing board to design an entire new switch console nearly from scratch.

That would be the biggest fumble since the snes CD, which was indeed the one time plans really changed; and they're still paying for that 30 years later.

At most, I'm willing to entertain the idea that they played with overclocking Mariko in 2019, and decided against it. They probably constantly play with new ideas, it doesn't make those "plans".

The "plans changed" excuse around the new console not appearing when people hoped it would is, until proven otherwise, bullshit. And it's extremely unlikely for the aforementioned reasons, especially in the year 2023 of our Lord and with how intertwined the industry has become.
 
Bosintang said:
Because it makes no sense to think that plans have been altered in a significant manner regarding Nintendo's next console, and we have zero indication that they have. The whole narrative around the 2022/23 model being cancelled for example is in my opinion bullshit and Olympic Straw Grasping.

Can a console be delayed by a few months? Sure, it happened even with the switch. But that's not what people mean with "plans changed" in that context, and we both know that.
Drake, or whatever you want to call it, is certainly not cancelled or pushed back by nearly 2 years unless Nintendo is willing to:

  • alienate their hardware and software partners worse than they ever have during this millennium.
  • lose millions of dollars with either tsmc or Samsung.
  • go back to the drawing board to design an entire new switch console nearly from scratch.

That would be the biggest fumble since the snes CD, which was indeed the one time plans really changed; and they're still paying for that 30 years later.

At most, I'm willing to entertain the idea that they played with overclocking Mariko in 2019, and decided against it. They probably constantly play with new ideas, it doesn't make those "plans".

The "plans changed" excuse around the new console not appearing when people hoped it would is, until proven otherwise, bullshit. And it's extremely unlikely for the aforementioned reasons, especially in the year 2023 of our Lord and with how intertwined the industry has become.
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There was a Bloomberg report on multiple devs having new devkits in like 2020. Sorry but I trust their reporting over pretty much any poster on this forum's judgment. Lozjam also gave you past examples of scrapped consoles/plans changing. Another example: DS being pushed way up in response to the PSP

Anything veering into how partners would "feel" in this situation is entirely fabricated. Let's not project when presumably neither of us actually works in the industry or knows how these things typically go down. They're also unlikely to scrap the work entirely anyway. But console makers are going through R&D constantly, basically as soon as the previous console launches, so there is nothing that strikes me as particularly unusual about the situation. Outside from you know, the unprecedented global pandemic that threw chip production into total disarray, so we should probably cast aside all preconceived notions...

Also it would've been nice if you gave this detailed response in the first place, rather than dismissing the original poster and having to be prompted
 
Lord Azrael said:
There was a Bloomberg report on multiple devs having new devkits in like 2020. Sorry but I trust their reporting over pretty much any poster on this forum's judgment.
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This doesn't affect your post but wasn't it something like multiple devs getting software toolkits, something that's at an earlier stage than devkits? I assume it must have been really early during that time since the T239 was being worked on.
 
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Lord Azrael said:
There was a Bloomberg report on multiple devs having new devkits in like 2020. Sorry but I trust their reporting over pretty much any poster on this forum's judgment. Lozjam also gave you past examples of scrapped consoles/plans changing. Another example: DS being pushed way up in response to the PSP

Anything veering into how partners would "feel" in this situation is entirely fabricated. Let's not project when presumably neither of us actually works in the industry or knows how these things typically go down. They're also unlikely to scrap the work entirely anyway. But console makers are going through R&D constantly, basically as soon as the previous console launches, so there is nothing that strikes me as particularly unusual about the situation. Outside from you know, the unprecedented global pandemic that threw chip production into total disarray, so we should probably cast aside all preconceived notions...

Also it would've been nice if you gave this detailed response in the first place, rather than dismissing the original poster and having to be prompted
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Ah yes, Bloomberg has been perfectly on point with their Switch 2 reporting. I'm playing an "enthusiast oriented" switch since 2019 as announced but our friend Mochi, and in 2021, the long awaited switch pro released.
And 12 developers had development kits for at least 2 years before whatever hardware planned for 2022/23 was scraped, and none of the close to a thousand of people involved publicly complained when their years of hard work was sent to the bin because "Nintendo changed their plans".

My interpretation is simpler: a Nintendo console will most likely release in 2024, possibly at the tail end of 2023, and this timeframe has been the plan since at least 2020. Everything else was I believe a mix of educated guesses ending up wrong, misreporting where real information and fantasies are conflated into an ever-changing amorphous blob, fan fiction, and later straw grasping.

And so far, I'm right. No console was released with Zelda. No console was released at the end of 2022 either. And more importantly, there was nothing indicating that a console would release in Nintendo's words or release schedule.

And as I said before, people are allowed to be convinced that they haven't been lied to. Hence my "let's agree to disagree" which could and should have been this end of this pointless debate
 
Vantell said:
I mean even it if it is a "Pro" it would still be seen as a successor for most, no? And I need to look up the exact details on the leak, but based on some earlier leaks through Nvidea and such it seems that the next model will have quite the boost in performance.
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Oh yea, it’s a very big power differential on paper, no question.

But power differentials between models have little to do with how they are positioned/marketed.

Nintendo isn’t going to present this as “with 8x the power of the current Switch, here is the future of Nintendo gaming! Everything bigger and better! Please move on to the new model as soon as possible cause that’s where we want our complete focus on in 2-3 years!”

No…it’s going to be “If you want to play the Switch library games with better graphics/performance, please look into our new model option we’ve added to the Switch family! Otherwise, take a look at the other model options we offer!”
 
My Tulpa said:
Oh yea, it’s a very big power differential on paper, no question.

But power differentials between models have little to do with how they are positioned/marketed.

Nintendo isn’t going to present this as “with 8x the power of the current Switch, here is the future of Nintendo gaming! Everything bigger and better! Please move on to the new model as soon as possible cause that’s where we want our complete focus on in 2-3 years!”

No…it’s going to be “If you want to play the Switch library games with better graphics/performance, please look into our new model option we’ve added to the Switch family! Otherwise, take a look at the other model options we offer!”
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Yeah I do agree with that. But my main point is that some people may not see it as a Switch "2.0"but more of a Switch 1.5 or 1,75 or so :p. I do agree that the next one will have a significant boost. I need to summarize actually all the information that people have gathered so I can put it together for myself :D
 
Vantell said:
Yeah I do agree with that. But my main point is that some people may not see it as a Switch "2.0"but more of a Switch 1.5 or 1,75 or so :p. I do agree that the next one will have a significant boost. I need to summarize actually all the information that people have gathered so I can put it together for myself :D
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if Drake isn't a "Switch 2" in performance, then I'm scared to know what does because it probably breaks the laws of thermodynamics
 
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My Tulpa said:
Oh yea, it’s a very big power differential on paper, no question.

But power differentials between models have little to do with how they are positioned/marketed.

Nintendo isn’t going to present this as “with 8x the power of the current Switch, here is the future of Nintendo gaming! Everything bigger and better! Please move on to the new model as soon as possible cause that’s where we want our complete focus on in 2-3 years!”

No…it’s going to be “If you want to play the Switch library games with better graphics/performance, please look into our new model option we’ve added to the Switch family! Otherwise, take a look at the other model options we offer!”
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I wouldn’t be so sure about that last part, honestly. That feels like another Wii U debacle waiting to happen. If marketing isn’t clear it’s a proper successor, there’s a real chance it won’t sell like one.
 
Bosintang said:
Because it makes no sense to think that plans have been altered in a significant manner regarding Nintendo's next console, and we have zero indication that they have. The whole narrative around the 2022/23 model being cancelled for example is in my opinion bullshit and Olympic Straw Grasping.

Can a console be delayed by a few months? Sure, it happened even with the switch. But that's not what people mean with "plans changed" in that context, and we both know that.
Drake, or whatever you want to call it, is certainly not cancelled or pushed back by nearly 2 years unless Nintendo is willing to:

  • alienate their hardware and software partners worse than they ever have during this millennium.
  • lose millions of dollars with either tsmc or Samsung.
  • go back to the drawing board to design an entire new switch console nearly from scratch.

That would be the biggest fumble since the snes CD, which was indeed the one time plans really changed; and they're still paying for that 30 years later.

At most, I'm willing to entertain the idea that they played with overclocking Mariko in 2019, and decided against it. They probably constantly play with new ideas, it doesn't make those "plans".

The "plans changed" excuse around the new console not appearing when people hoped it would is, until proven otherwise, bullshit. And it's extremely unlikely for the aforementioned reasons, especially in the year 2023 of our Lord and with how intertwined the industry has become.
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Except you know..... I haven't said anything about previous rumors.
Lozjam said:
It's doesn't matter really what it's called. It will still be the sequel to the Switch.

Yes I would say so.
Been hearing more whispers from the manufacturing side, and also Nintendo doesn't seem to be happy with current info going out.

Certainly there is a lot of smoke. And I think they may go into full production soon. However, plans change all of the time.
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What I literally said, was that there is now a lot of smoke coming from manufacturering plants right now. It's likely coming either late this year, or early next year. However, plans change all of the time, and it can either pushed back, or even pushed forward in some cases. Which even you admit, is possible, and has happened with the Switch.

I never said anything about a Drake, or a Switch Pro or anything. Just weighing in on the likeliness of this new switch coming.

And yes. It is coming very soon. We will likely even have an actual leak soon, as the console enters more hands. However, there are a bevy of things can change between then and now, and plans change all of the time internally. For example:
What happens when there is a huge critical flaw in their current model? A huge delay.

What happens if they find a huge piracy problem, where the system can be jailbroken easily(like with the OG switch). A huge delay.

What happens if software isn't ready? A huge delay.

Again, I am just saying that this thing is definitely happening internally. But the fact that you cherry pick everything that I say, then go on this tirade about the Drake rumors. Is kind of awful, without you know, actually listening to what I have to say, and then going to take what I say completely out of context.
 
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AoiHana said:
I wouldn’t be so sure about that last part, honestly. That feels like another Wii U debacle waiting to happen. If marketing isn’t clear it’s a proper successor, there’s a real chance it won’t sell like one.
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Yeah after the WiiU and 3DS, it would be pretty incredible to me if Nintendo comes out and doesn't make it extremely clear that this is a successor and will be a clean break from the Switch 1, albeit with BC and a limited window of cross gen releases. I would assume this will also be explicitly highlighted via a number of Switch 2 exclusives at launch.
 
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Hairway to Steven said:
My concern is that Nintendo is gonna wait until, like, 2025 or later to release this thing.

Late 2023/early 2024 is the golden period. Any later than that is suicidal.
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They can wait until late 2024 to release it. They’ll have a number of big titles for the next 12 months to sustain them. And all things considered, they’ll still sell like 15mil this fiscal year and at least 10 the next. They can wait another 18 months.
 
Trevelyan said:
They can wait until late 2024 to release it. They’ll have a number of big titles for the next 12 months to sustain them. And all things considered, they’ll still sell like 15mil this fiscal year and at least 10 the next. They can wait another 18 months.
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what big titles do they have past Zelda? Pikmin isn't a big title, and nothing else is even rumored outside of Prime 4
 
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