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Discussion Is the Switch's current market performance unprecedented? (post TOTK/Mario movie boom)

What Switch is doing in terms of hardware + software sales this late in its life is really something that never happened before.

Game Boy can be brought up with Pokémon reviving it, but it also got a mid gen refresh that was basically a successor for it. And Switch has got software selling almost what the best selling game of GB sold lifetime in 6 weeks(Pokemon SV's 22M vs RGB's 30M). And then again a game selling 10M in 3 days the following year(TotK).

PlayStation 2 sold a lot after PS3 came out, but that got price cuts where it was basically an impulse buy. Also due to piracy being at its peak with PS2, it wouldn't get the high selling software of Switch. Almost the same thing with DS, with the difference that it was insanely high selling and fell off a cliff after 3DS came out.

Switch is on a terrain that nobody entered before really. And we'll only fully get the picture of how high the hill is when we get the Super Mario Bros Wonder first quarter sales, TotK sales until the end of the year and hardware sales of the FY. I can't even try to predict what those will be.
 
ILikeFeet said:
no it wasn't. you had to pay a lot more to get the latest cpu because it was fresh out of the oven. aside from that, you weren't gonna get a better gpu for the power consumption
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Switch was absolutely less powerful than the at the time three years old PS4 and Xbox One. From what I saw of the Microsoft hearings the Switch 2 might not be much more powerful than those consoles, and it is coming 12 years after them
 
Brock Reiher said:
Switch was absolutely less powerful than the at the time three years old PS4 and Xbox One. From what I saw of the Microsoft hearings the Switch 2 might not be much more powerful than those consoles, and it is coming 12 years after them
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that's not what "outdated" means. that's like saying a 4050 is outdated compared to a 4090
 
meatbag said:
Sure, but that's different from saying it was outdated. Switch was the cutting edge for mobile tech at its price point.


Exactly
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Switch was and still is compared to consoles. The biggest game on Switch at launch was ported forward from Wii U. The point is that switch tech doesn't need to be cutting edge to be succesful-- even if you want to argue it wasn't technically behind it's competitors when it launched (I think it was) it certainly is now and is still selling 10mil copies of games in a few days. I can't imagine why that would change with a switch 2.
 
I was absolutely not expecting to be playing my Switch so much still in 2023. It's had a fair bit more use than my PS5 or PC this year. The number of games I'll probably end up buying is impressive for its 7th year. Starting with Prime Remastered, then TotK, now Pikmin 4 (+ 1&2), with Warioware, Mario Wonder & Mario RPG still to come.
 
Marce-chan said:
What Switch is doing in terms of hardware + software sales this late in its life is really something that never happened before.

Game Boy can be brought up with Pokémon reviving it, but it also got a mid gen refresh that was basically a successor for it. And Switch has got software selling almost what the best selling game of GB sold lifetime in 6 weeks(Pokemon SV's 22M vs RGB's 30M). And then again a game selling 10M in 3 days the following year(TotK).

PlayStation 2 sold a lot after PS3 came out, but that got price cuts where it was basically an impulse buy. Also due to piracy being at its peak with PS2, it wouldn't get the high selling software of Switch. Almost the same thing with DS, with the difference that it was insanely high selling and fell off a cliff after 3DS came out.

Switch is on a terrain that nobody entered before really. And we'll only fully get the picture of how high the hill is when we get the Super Mario Bros Wonder first quarter sales, TotK sales until the end of the year and hardware sales of the FY. I can't even try to predict what those will be.
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Good post and good points as well. Seeing NSMB charting on Circana in May is likely a precursor to the chain reaction that Mario Wonder will set off along with Zelda this holiday. Nintendo may actually pass their lofty 15 million consoles forecast which is insane for year 7.
 
neil said:
So long as the specs of Switch 2 are up to date for the moment it releases. Supposedly the specs are “taped out” now, according to the hw speculation thread. But if it’s delayed a year or so while Switch 1 keeps selling, they can’t just release the system they originally planned for 2022/23
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"dated" or not, it's still a portable dlss capable ps4. Not bad even next year.
 
ziggyrivers said:
Shouldn’t we be getting that in August?
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Oh yeah that's when we get results for its first quarter. But I meant how much it'll sell in the next quarter and in the holiday season. Tears of the Kingdom is a monster of its own league, with having hella front loaded sales like Pokémon, but probably outlegging it.
I wanna know whether it'll slow down severely like Pokémon games do or if it'll end up being a second New Horizons and sell 30M in a year(tho I was expecting it to sell less than that lifetime, but 10M in 3 days made me go nuts).
Kreese said:
Good post and good points as well. Seeing NSMB charting on Circana in May is likely a precursor to the chain reaction that Mario Wonder will set off along with Zelda this holiday. Nintendo may actually pass their lofty 15 million consoles forecast which is insane for year 7.
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Exactly!!! Not only that, but 3D World too, and of course Kart 8 that never stopped charting but got a boost. We also got Odyssey coming back to top 10 on UK charts!! Mario movie meant big boosts for old Mario titles way before the movie itself came out. The last quarter results will be among the most interesting ever imo. We'll know how much of a boost hardware got with TotK + movie, how many more Mario titles were shifted due to movie hype and new consoles bought for TotK and etc.

This holiday tho is gonna be absolutely nuts. We're gonna get the full picture of how much a brand new 2D Mario game releasing on a huge but still active and expanding user base, the year of the movie and on a holiday season can sell. New Super Mario Bros. Wii made Wii have its peak year and quarter, and was the fastest selling Nintendo game for almost a decade. I don't think it'll replicate Pokemon SV/TOTK selling 10M in its first 3 days, but Black Friday will give it basically another launch, then Christmas, so I think a first quarter sales about as big as that of Pokémon Sword and Shield(16M), and year 1 legs as big as that of Animal Crossing New Horizons, meaning it won't be long before it gets to 30M. Then we have the amount it's gonna sell on the successor and damn...
 
Wait, isn't this talking about the console undocked and not docked when talking about the graphical power? I could've sworn I saw a rumor/leak that this was the comparison for handheld mode, while docked was closer to Xbox Series S.
 
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if Nintendo's forecast is accurate, and there's an outside chance it's still a bit of a lowball, 15 million consoles in year 7 is pretty unprecedented.
 
Regulus Tera said:
I cannot see it slowing down when a 2D Mario is releasing this year.
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I was in GameStop on Friday and there was a big billboard for Street Fighter 6. Another couple came in (childless probably have nephews and/or godkids) and walked right up the counter and said, “we just heard there are two new Mario games coming out in the fall. Can we preorder them?” They were not “gamers.” I was surprised they even knew you could preorder games at GameStop.

The day before, I was in Target with my 2 year old son. He likes Mario even though he still needs my help to play. I took him to the Switch demo kiosk for fun. A woman who was older than me (either an aunt or grandmother, I couldn’t tell as she was fit and well put together) looked at us playing the New Super Mario Bros U DX demo. She said, “oh that’s the ‘normal’ Mario game. Could you point to the ‘normal’ Mario game in the shelf for me?” In her mainstream mind, a “normal” Mario game was a 2D Mario game. She then bought a copy of New Super Mario U DX for full price. I didn’t mention Super Mario Wonder but I have no doubt that whichever kid receives that copy of NSMBUDX will be sure to tell her about Mario Wonder as soon as they finish with the WiiU port.

Mario Wonder will do at least Tears of the Kingdom sales. There will be Switch OLED shortages during the holiday shopping season. It’s going to be huge. I’ve never seen anything like it in my adult life. It’s going to be the Wii and New Super Mario Bros. Wii all over again but much bigger.

I haven’t seen this level of mainstream enthusiasm for Mario games since I was a kid when Super Mario 2 and 3 were just everywhere. Parents used to go from store to store to find in that wasn’t sold out of Mario 2 or Mario 3 later.
 
Old Sorta Fan said:
I was in GameStop on Friday and there was a big billboard for Street Fighter 6. Another couple came in (childless probably have nephews and/or godkids) and walked right up the counter and said, “we just heard there are two new Mario games coming out in the fall. Can we preorder them?” They were not “gamers.” I was surprised they even knew you could preorder games at GameStop.

The day before, I was in Target with my 2 year old son. He likes Mario even though he still needs my help to play. I took him to the Switch demo kiosk for fun. A woman who was older than me (either an aunt or grandmother, I couldn’t tell as she was fit and well put together) looked at us playing the New Super Mario Bros U DX demo. She said, “oh that’s the ‘normal’ Mario game. Could you point to the ‘normal’ Mario game in the shelf for me?” In her mainstream mind, a “normal” Mario game was a 2D Mario game. She then bought a copy of New Super Mario U DX for full price. I didn’t mention Super Mario Wonder but I have no doubt that whichever kid receives that copy of NSMBUDX will be sure to tell her about Mario Wonder as soon as they finish with the WiiU port.

Mario Wonder will do at least Tears of the Kingdom sales. There will be Switch OLED shortages during the holiday shopping season. It’s going to be huge. I’ve never seen anything like it in my adult life. It’s going to be the Wii and New Super Mario Bros. Wii all over again but much bigger.

I haven’t seen this level of mainstream enthusiasm for Mario games since I was a kid when Super Mario 2 and 3 were just everywhere. Parents used to go from store to store to find in that wasn’t sold out of Mario 2 or Mario 3 later.
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I thought Tears of the Kingdom was the Switch’s last set of fireworks, but I guess Wonder is gonna do that these Holidays
 
Old Sorta Fan said:
I was in GameStop on Friday and there was a big billboard for Street Fighter 6. Another couple came in (childless probably have nephews and/or godkids) and walked right up the counter and said, “we just heard there are two new Mario games coming out in the fall. Can we preorder them?” They were not “gamers.” I was surprised they even knew you could preorder games at GameStop.

The day before, I was in Target with my 2 year old son. He likes Mario even though he still needs my help to play. I took him to the Switch demo kiosk for fun. A woman who was older than me (either an aunt or grandmother, I couldn’t tell as she was fit and well put together) looked at us playing the New Super Mario Bros U DX demo. She said, “oh that’s the ‘normal’ Mario game. Could you point to the ‘normal’ Mario game in the shelf for me?” In her mainstream mind, a “normal” Mario game was a 2D Mario game. She then bought a copy of New Super Mario U DX for full price. I didn’t mention Super Mario Wonder but I have no doubt that whichever kid receives that copy of NSMBUDX will be sure to tell her about Mario Wonder as soon as they finish with the WiiU port.

Mario Wonder will do at least Tears of the Kingdom sales. There will be Switch OLED shortages during the holiday shopping season. It’s going to be huge. I’ve never seen anything like it in my adult life. It’s going to be the Wii and New Super Mario Bros. Wii all over again but much bigger.

I haven’t seen this level of mainstream enthusiasm for Mario games since I was a kid when Super Mario 2 and 3 were just everywhere. Parents used to go from store to store to find in that wasn’t sold out of Mario 2 or Mario 3 later.
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YES. And even for the fabled Gamers™️. I'm seeing a positive hype for Wonder even from the most conservative Sony fanboys that generally talk shit about any non-realistic game. I've saw a reaction video from a famous YT channel of Brazil where they bashed Pikmin 4 and MPR graphics(I mean...) and talked about Zelda like it was something non-Nintendo. They were super impressed and talked great stuff about Wonder, including about its visuals.

It's gonna be the biggest holiday launch of the year, I have no doubt about it. Lifetime sales will probably exceed those of Odyssey and TotK imo. And I think we're looking at Switch selling more in fiscal Q3 2023 than it did in fiscal Q3 2022.
 
Old Sorta Fan said:
I was in GameStop on Friday and there was a big billboard for Street Fighter 6. Another couple came in (childless probably have nephews and/or godkids) and walked right up the counter and said, “we just heard there are two new Mario games coming out in the fall. Can we preorder them?” They were not “gamers.” I was surprised they even knew you could preorder games at GameStop.

The day before, I was in Target with my 2 year old son. He likes Mario even though he still needs my help to play. I took him to the Switch demo kiosk for fun. A woman who was older than me (either an aunt or grandmother, I couldn’t tell as she was fit and well put together) looked at us playing the New Super Mario Bros U DX demo. She said, “oh that’s the ‘normal’ Mario game. Could you point to the ‘normal’ Mario game in the shelf for me?” In her mainstream mind, a “normal” Mario game was a 2D Mario game. She then bought a copy of New Super Mario U DX for full price. I didn’t mention Super Mario Wonder but I have no doubt that whichever kid receives that copy of NSMBUDX will be sure to tell her about Mario Wonder as soon as they finish with the WiiU port.

Mario Wonder will do at least Tears of the Kingdom sales. There will be Switch OLED shortages during the holiday shopping season. It’s going to be huge. I’ve never seen anything like it in my adult life. It’s going to be the Wii and New Super Mario Bros. Wii all over again but much bigger.

I haven’t seen this level of mainstream enthusiasm for Mario games since I was a kid when Super Mario 2 and 3 were just everywhere. Parents used to go from store to store to find in that wasn’t sold out of Mario 2 or Mario 3 later.
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My GameStop story. When i went to pre-order SMRPG, there was a guy about half my age picking up Sonic Origins for the Switch. His friends were all outside waiting for him talking about if Fall Guys if F2P now or not, so you can tell they're not the plugged in type gamer because even I know Fall Guys is now F2P.

If you travel in certain circles on the internet, Switch is made out to be this irrelevant aging platform, but in the real world, it's absolutely massive.
 
Jaytra said:
The Oled model was such a good decision.

Will it beat the DS and PS2 is the question. If they sell 15m this FY, they would just need another 15m but assuming the successor releases in the Holidays next year, sales would certainly drop. They still have an Ace up their sleeve with a price drop however. But I'm not sure if that would be enough, even if they keep selling it alongside the succ for a few years.
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seriously. I love the OLED. Might be my favorite portable ever as a handheld.
 
Rampo360 said:
Gotta love how people treat Switch as a regular tv console when it suit the narrative of Nintendo releasing outdated hardware.
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I love the Switch but the Tegra X1 was 2 years old when Switch launched, and now it’s 6 years later.

So no, it’s not fair to compare its performance to a PS4 that can draw 150W from the wall, but there are many other mobile devices and chipsets that outperform for the power. It’s been 8 years.
 
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I love it personally, Nintendo is releasing a lot of stuff I feel like we wouldn't normally get as much of and is much more willing to be weird and whacky when they're not resting on the standard heavy hitters to shift a new console. The Switch honestly feels as alive as it ever has. Like this year already feels like a much stronger line-up than 2018, 2020, and probably 2021. Nintendo has had a LOT to show and for all the expectation that they were done, they've just kept churning out releases and keeping hype on their console, brands, and games.

I know some people felt like the most recent Direct was "End of Life" feeling, but I absolutely don't get that impression. Super Mario Bros. Wonder is the type of game they want to let breathe and such a strong showing into the end of 2023 with stuff like the Peach game and Luigi's Mansion Dark Room remake getting shown off here, they're already lining up for 2024 and if we have a real September Direct, that could further show the Switch sticking around until Holiday 2024 at the minimum.

If all Switch had was a Metroid Prime 4 being shown off this early, it'd be very different feeling, but we're still waiting on that and Nintendo reaching further into the vault definitely sets them up for more releases for a while longer. And personally, old hardware and all I don't feel the need to rush into a new console either. Switch still feels great and is putting out classics. That's all Nintendo needs to do and I just care less and less about the hardware enabling me to play those titles.
 
At the end of the day, "winners" in console generations have generally been dictated by the games, not the hardware. We can complain about aging hardware and bad performance all we want but if the games deliver, then they deliver and we'd have a great time regardless.
 
One thing I'd like to add is we're now probably at a point where console generations are going to lengthen across the board, largely because of how long games take to develop now. Some games are now taking upwards of 4-5 years to develop from start to finish, which is nearly the length of a 'traditional' console generation in itself. Then you take into account how supply for current gen consoles has only just met with demand, which has taken a good 2 years in itself. I doubt companies are in a huge rush to return to the days where they're struggling to get their products onto shelves (this may be a reason why Nintendo have been hesitant to make the jump while the Switch continues to chug along nicely).

What Nintendo have managed with the Switch is remarkable, and the Mario movie/TOTK one-two punch has been a huge way to give the console one final boost, but it wouldn't surprise me if we see the PS5/current Xbox lasting a similar length of time to the Switch.
 
Galgavias said:
Some games are now taking upwards of 4-5 years to develop from start to finish, which is nearly the length of a 'traditional' console generation in itself.
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My sentiments exactly. If the next Zelda takes as long as BOTW and TOTK, six years, then if the Switch 2 comes out in 2024 or 2025…
• Switch 2 releases in 2024, Zelda in 2030;
• Switch 2 releases in 2025, Zelda in 2031.

That’s a lot. And if Nintendo Switch 2 wants to get another 3D Zelda game… hoo, boy. It’ll have to be simpler because another six years is a lot
 
ziggyrivers said:
My sentiments exactly. If the next Zelda takes as long as BOTW and TOTK, six years, then if the Switch 2 comes out in 2024 or 2025…
• Switch 2 releases in 2024, Zelda in 2030;
• Switch 2 releases in 2025, Zelda in 2031.

That’s a lot. And if Nintendo Switch 2 wants to get another 3D Zelda game… hoo, boy. It’ll have to be simpler because another six years is a lot
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Also a new 2D Mario isn’t exactly something Nintendo launches at the end of a systems lifespan. They typically are massive titles that sell throughout the systems lifespan. Not to mention the Mario movie will likely hit streaming around the time that Super Mario Wonder releases.
 
LordByron28 said:
Also a new 2D Mario isn’t exactly something Nintendo launches at the end of a systems lifespan. They typically are massive titles that sell throughout the systems lifespan. Not to mention the Mario movie will likely hit streaming around the time that Super Mario Wonder releases.
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it can always keep selling on Drake. just repackage the game in a Drake box
 
Yoshifan31 said:
PS2 was more relevant than the PS3 for its first two years

DS was kinda better than the 3DS, why upgrade when you still had Pokemon games on it
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Not a good comparison: PS3 almost killed Sony because it was very expensive and hard to develop for with it's unusual hardware.

Switch2 will probably have a reasonable price and good launch games, so most people will just buy it instead of the old Switch.
 
LordByron28 said:
Also a new 2D Mario isn’t exactly something Nintendo launches at the end of a systems lifespan. They typically are massive titles that sell throughout the systems lifespan. Not to mention the Mario movie will likely hit streaming around the time that Super Mario Wonder releases.
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Good point! Very nice observations. Nintendo has a lot of Evergreen titles: they keep selling through the console’s lifetime. So they can keep releasing games because, most certainly, the Switch 2 will be backwards compatible
 
ziggyrivers said:
most certainly, the Switch 2 will be backwards compatible
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Backwards compatibility reminds me of region locking in that people didn't believe it would happen "because Nintendo" and guess what, Nintendo made the Switch region free. And that's because they knew it would be easier to draw in people that way.

So there's no way the Switch 2 isn't backwards compatible. They'd lose out on the profits.
 
ILikeFeet said:
it can always keep selling on Drake. just repackage the game in a Drake box
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ziggyrivers said:
Good point! Very nice observations. Nintendo has a lot of Evergreen titles: they keep selling through the console’s lifetime. So they can keep releasing games because, most certainly, the Switch 2 will be backwards compatible
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I mean this year hasn’t exactly been light in terms of software releases. Surely they would’ve leveled off and saved these heavy hitters for launch year. We already know about the peach game and Luigi’s mansion 2 for next year as well as whenever MP4 releases. I think we could see this next Switch advertised as a premium model while still supporting OG Switch lines. Nintendo software for the first 3 years supports all models with some of their major recent sellers getting 4K ports/upgrades such as TotK, SMW, Pikmin 4, and Splatoon 3. The premium model can play all switch titles. Third parties can choose which platforms to support. All Switch Premium exclusive titles can be played via Switch’s cloud streaming service like they did with some titles such as AC:O, RE8, etc.

The fact that Switch has yet to receive major price cuts and still selling this well is rather crazy. The past few years have been the most profitable in the companies history. With the success of their new movie and theme park expansion, I imagine this year will likely continue that trend. Not discounting TotK which is more expensive than most Switch software but selling a ton. If Nintendo lowers the price of the Switch it should significantly lower the barrier of entry for prospective owners. The Switch is already one of the most successful consoles of all time. If Nintendo wants to continue to build their brand and fan base, eventually they are going to have to want to expand their total audience. In addition to that a lot of their franchises are reaching new heights on Switch which allows for future expansion of the franchises through merchandising, theme parks, film, etc. Prior to Covid they were prioritizing increasing their global reach. They could continue expanding into emerging global markets such as Latin America with the Switch in these later years. A $399 premium Switch model with 4K capabilities could offset the cost of lowering the OG Switch line( including Lite and OLED) by $50. Another thing they should consider doing is Nintendo select line for some titles that were decent sellers and well received but have stopped selling such as Xenoblade 2, Super Mario Maker 2, Yoshi, Arms, Three Houses, Link’s Awakening, etc. Switch premium launch early 2025 and in its first 18 months, it along with OG Switch receives Metroid Prime 4, Mario Kart 9, Animal Crossing, 3D Mario, 2D Zelda, Xenoblade Chronicles X-2, 4K up-ports of Switch titles and a number of 3rd party PS4 ports and exclusive titles.

The September through October timeframe seems oddly empty for this year; I could see a Nintendo direct before TGS that shadow drops a GCN port such as F-Zero GX or something. Perhaps an experimental casual title(Switch Fit Adventure sequel to RFA but with a balance board) for early October will also get announced as has happened in the past. As for 2024, I think they could have Peach game, DK, Pokemon Stadium Switch(battle simulator featuring numerous different styles and mechanics utilizes all Home Pokémon), Pokémon Conquest Switch by KT, Tomodachi Collection, Dragon Quest 12, Mother Trilogy 3D remake, Star Fox Switch, Metroid Prime 4, Switch Motor Sports featuring sequels to Pilot Wings, Wave Race, Excite Bike, and Steel Diver supports multiple control schemes including pro controller, joycons, balance board and/or ring fit.
 
ziggyrivers said:
My sentiments exactly. If the next Zelda takes as long as BOTW and TOTK, six years, then if the Switch 2 comes out in 2024 or 2025…
• Switch 2 releases in 2024, Zelda in 2030;
• Switch 2 releases in 2025, Zelda in 2031.

That’s a lot. And if Nintendo Switch 2 wants to get another 3D Zelda game… hoo, boy. It’ll have to be simpler because another six years is a lot
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I wouldn't worry too much. The next Zelda is probably in early development already, if what Aonuma said about them spending a good year just polishing TOTK is true. Nintendo won't want their new console to go that long without a new Zelda. If I had to guess, I'd say they're aiming for around 2028 time for the next one.
 
ziggyrivers said:
My sentiments exactly. If the next Zelda takes as long as BOTW and TOTK, six years, then if the Switch 2 comes out in 2024 or 2025…
• Switch 2 releases in 2024, Zelda in 2030;
• Switch 2 releases in 2025, Zelda in 2031.

That’s a lot. And if Nintendo Switch 2 wants to get another 3D Zelda game… hoo, boy. It’ll have to be simpler because another six years is a lot
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There are about four 3D Zelda’s to fill the gaps between years even then a simpler one could still take 6yrs. Whatever the next Zelda the start production of the game wouldn’t be tied to the Redacted’s launch year.
 
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I think a big reason why Nintendo has been slower to release a successor is to prime as much as possible for it to come out of the gate in a big way while still making plenty of revenue off the Switch. If Switch 2 doesn't launch until Holiday 2024 as I'm predicting, you'd have had 1.5 years post Tears of the Kingdom PLUS easily another year of potential early work if not outright production if they immediately began exploring options when Tears began the main QA testing in 2022. That sets up the potential for a pretty solid major mid-life Zelda around say 2027-2028.

We basically know 3D Mario has been kept in reserve for launch, Mario Kart will come very early on, if Nintendo has figured out Smash's future it could potentially be a quite early release given support for Ultimate ended in 2021, Animal Crossing early seems likely, and so on. And I think that's all in large part due to the time Nintendo is taking to get to the successor.
 
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