• Hey everyone, staff have documented a list of banned content and subject matter that we feel are not consistent with site values, and don't make sense to host discussion of on Famiboards. This list (and the relevant reasoning per item) is viewable here.

Discussion Is the Switch's current market performance unprecedented? (post TOTK/Mario movie boom)

Kreese

Kreese

Koopa
Banned
Something exciting is happening with the Switch. It's in its 7th year and it seems to be having had a second wind of the likes of which I don't think has even been seen in a console at this stage of its lifecycle, and it hasn't been just a minor blip on the radar. Switch went from slowing down notably this year to firmly becoming the best selling platform worldwide against consoles in their primes for months now. Has this ever happened before at this stage in a consoles life cycle?

Edit legs for days:

 
Last edited:
It is super impressive and highly unusual, but not quite unprecedented; Gameboy got a hell of a second wind when Pokemon arrived late in its life.
 
Gameboy is really the only relative comparison. Even then, outside of Japan, everyone got Pokemon mania at basically the same time as the new GBC which is half pro version half new generation of hardware. Of course to be fair, there is also the pandemic factor which both spiked Switch demand and has lead to many premier Switch titles to slip 1-2 years from their planned release.

Anyone who made a take comparing the Switch to "late stage Wii" in the past 18 months needs to have their gaming cred card stripped though. That was always a laughably bad take that only continues to get exponentially more wrong every month.
 
Kreese said:
Something exciting is happening with the Switch. It's in its 7th year and it seems to be having had a second wind of the likes of which I don't think has even been seen in a console at this stage of its lifecycle, and it hasn't been just a minor blip on the radar. Switch went from slowing down notably this year to firmly becoming the best selling platform worldwide against consoles in their primes for months now. Has this ever happened before at this stage in a consoles life cycle?
Click to expand...
It is really surprising but Nintendo has released the biggest Nintendo game ever in year 7 and with very positive reception too. I think Nintendo has learned from their past mistakes (especially with 3DS) and decided to stick with big releases even late in the life cycle.
 
Yes, the Switch’s current market performance is unprecedented. Or like Nintendo likes to put it: Uncharted Territory. Like I mentioned in another thread, it’s not only Uncharted Territory because the Switch is selling stellarly well for a seven year old console with no successor in sight. It’s also Uncharted because of how many consumers are upgrading their models to the newer one: the OLED.
 
The Oled model was such a good decision.

Will it beat the DS and PS2 is the question. If they sell 15m this FY, they would just need another 15m but assuming the successor releases in the Holidays next year, sales would certainly drop. They still have an Ace up their sleeve with a price drop however. But I'm not sure if that would be enough, even if they keep selling it alongside the succ for a few years.
 
Jaytra said:
The Oled model was such a good decision.

Will it beat the DS and PS2 is the question. If they sell 15m this FY, they would just need another 15m but assuming the successor releases in the Holidays next year, sales would certainly drop. They still have an Ace up their sleeve with a price drop however. But I'm not sure if that would be enough, even if they keep selling it alongside the succ for a few years.
Click to expand...
I don’t think they’ll have a price drop. They mentioned some macroeconomic factors against it. I presume they’ll forecast 10 million units for the Switch next Fiscal Year. Releasing the Switch 2 Holiday 2024 may sell 5 million.

meatbag said:
Yup.

That being said, year 7 of Switch is undoubtedly bonkers
Click to expand...
And it’ll keep selling even when the successor gets announced AND released
 
k samedi said:
It is really surprising but Nintendo has released the biggest Nintendo game ever in year 7 and with very positive reception too. I think Nintendo has learned from their past mistakes (especially with 3DS) and decided to stick with big releases even late in the life cycle.
Click to expand...
What's interesting about this though is that it proves to Nintendo that they can still become market leader in the modern gaming climate with gigantic software/movie releases even with hardware that released in a prior generation.

Nintendo says the Switch is uncharted territory for them and they are probably very curiously watching to see their results as it's very educational for them.
 
k samedi said:
It is really surprising but Nintendo has released the biggest Nintendo game ever in year 7 and with very positive reception too. I think Nintendo has learned from their past mistakes (especially with 3DS) and decided to stick with big releases even late in the life cycle.
Click to expand...

I don’t think they’d have done it if they didn’t have equally big games for launch of the next system.

If Nintendo didn’t think their next Zelda was important for launch like Breath of the Wild was for Switch, they likely have other very exiting things on the way. Mario and Metroid have been cooking for quite some time now…
 
I don't know if strictly unprecedent, but a console having this much sheer momentum without a price drop or mid-generation updated redisgn (a la PS4 Pro or Gameboy Color) is definitely unusual.

At the very least, I don't think there's a console in recent memory whose market performance is comparable to the Switch.
 
It's impressive the Switch still has plenty of life left in it 7 years into its life. A stark contrast to something like the GameCube or Wii which had massive software droughts in their last two years.
 
TOTK is less than two months old, I think it's hard to classify it as much more than a blip for now. Regarding precedent, I think PS2 is still the go-to. Switch may still be above where PS2 was at this age, but less than it was a few years ago.
 
People already mentioned Game Boy, but PS2 also sold like a quarter to a third of its lifetime total post PS3 launch due to price and some other factors
 
JoshuaJSlone said:
TOTK is less than two months old, I think it's hard to classify it as much more than a blip for now. Regarding precedent, I think PS2 is still the go-to. Switch may still be above where PS2 was at this age, but less than it was a few years ago.
Click to expand...
It's worth noting that Switch also finished atop the April NPD the month prior to TOTK's release due to the sale of the TOTK OLED.

One game (and possibly the Mario Movie?) doing this for a platform over the span of nearly 3 months is highly unusual and perhaps has raised the Switch baseline above what it would have been otherwise for the long term.
 
0
Nintendo thinks it’s unprecedented. This is from their most recent Q & A.

Furukawa:
Click to expand...
Nintendo Switch cumulative sales have exceeded 120 million units. In the history of our dedicated video game platform business, there has never before been a time when we forecast annual hardware sales of 15 million units and software sales of 180 million units for the seventh year of a platform (for Nintendo Switch, the year to March 2024). We believe that we have entered uncharted territory.
Click to expand...
It will not be easy for hardware sales to continue at the same pace going forward as seen in the past few years, but we can take advantage of the large install base to create business opportunities for software. Among Nintendo Switch titles, there are some for which sales exceeded 10 million units in just the first three days. Examples include last year's Pokémon Scarlet and Pokémon Violet, and this year's The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom. For our past platforms, there are no examples of titles selling at such a pace.
Click to expand...
 
The me before Mario and Zelda came out would be skeptical of this, while the me now feels silly for not having more faith.

Though even now the Switch absolutely exceeds expectations for a console this late in its life. It just goes to show how powerful IP can absolutely elevate. Like other posts, this is basically like what Pokemon did for Gameboy.
 
Game Boy/Pokémon isn't an apt comparison, I think. It didn't just give a boost to an aging platform, it took it to new highs. If something does to Switch what Pokémon did to Game Boy, we'll see it sell 30+ million in a year.
 
0
I know TotK unsurprisingly sold very well, but I'd be interested in the numbers of the other recent software, given last earnings report I saw, the numbers for new titles were almost uniformly less than people had been expecting.

Not bad, just less.
 
Rooster said:
I know TotK unsurprisingly sold very well, but I'd be interested in the numbers of the other recent software, given last earnings report I saw, the numbers for new titles were almost uniformly less than people had been expecting.

Not bad, just less.
Click to expand...
Nigh every franchise Nintendo is putting out on the Switch is setting franchise records.

TOTK was in the Guinness Book of World Records

www.guinnessworldrecords.com

Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom sells faster than any Nintendo game in history

The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom has become the fastest-selling Nintendo game of all time.
www.guinnessworldrecords.com www.guinnessworldrecords.com
 
Kreese said:
Nigh every franchise Nintendo is putting out on the Switch is setting franchise records.

TOTK was in the Guinness Book of World Records

www.guinnessworldrecords.com

Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom sells faster than any Nintendo game in history

The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom has become the fastest-selling Nintendo game of all time.
www.guinnessworldrecords.com www.guinnessworldrecords.com
Click to expand...
"I'd be interested in the numbers of other recent software, I know TotK sold very well"
"Here's TotK selling very well"

Right, yes, thank you. That one I do know.

When were the last quarterly software numbers dropped? May? I suppose there wouldn't be any newer general data yet.
 
Rooster said:
"I'd be interested in the numbers of other recent software, I know TotK sold very well"
"Here's TotK selling very well"

Right, yes, thank you. That one I do know.

When were the last quarterly software numbers dropped? May? I suppose there wouldn't be any newer general data yet.
Click to expand...
Here I just typed in "best selling Switch games" on Google.

Which franchises in specific are "uniformly less than people were expecting" and which people are are you referring to?

There's a lot of historic franchise bests here so the comment puzzles me a bit.
  • Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 53.79m
  • Animal Crossing: New Horizons - 42.21m
  • Super Smash Bros. Ultimate - 31.09m
  • The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 29.81m (Switch version only)
  • Pokémon Sword/Shield - 25.82m
  • Super Mario Odyssey - 25.76m
  • Pokémon Scarlet/Violet - 22.10m
  • Super Mario Party - 19.14m
  • New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe – 15.41m
  • Ring Fit Adventure - 15.38m
  • Pokemon Legends: Arceus – 14.83m
  • Luigi’s Mansion 3 – 12.82m
  • Super Mario 3D World + Bowser’s Fury – 11.38m
  • Splatoon 3 – 10.67m
  • Mario Party Superstars – 10.17m
  • Nintendo Switch Sports – 9.60m
  • Kirby and the Forgotten Land – 6.46m
  • Mario Strikers: Battle League – 2.54m
  • Xenoblade Chronicles 3 – 1.86m
  • Fire Emblem Engage - 1.61m
  • Kirby's Return to Dream Land Deluxe - 1.46m
  • Metroid Prime Remastered - 1.09m
  • Bayonetta 3 - 1.07m
 
Last edited:
Kreese said:
Here I just typed in "best selling Switch games" on Google.

Which franchises in specific are "uniformly less than people were expecting" and which people are are you referring to?

There's a lot of historic franchise bests here so the comment puzzles me a bit.
  • Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 53.79m
  • Animal Crossing: New Horizons - 42.21m
  • Super Smash Bros. Ultimate - 31.09m
  • The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 29.81m (Switch version only)
  • Pokémon Sword/Shield - 25.82m
  • Super Mario Odyssey - 25.76m
  • Pokémon Scarlet/Violet - 22.10m
  • Super Mario Party - 19.14m
  • New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe – 15.41m
  • Ring Fit Adventure - 15.38m
  • Pokemon Legends: Arceus – 14.83m
  • Luigi’s Mansion 3 – 12.82m
  • Super Mario 3D World + Bowser’s Fury – 11.38m
  • Splatoon 3 – 10.67m
  • Mario Party Superstars – 10.17m
  • Nintendo Switch Sports – 9.60m
  • Kirby and the Forgotten Land – 6.46m
  • Mario Strikers: Battle League – 2.54m
  • Xenoblade Chronicles 3 – 1.86m
  • Fire Emblem Engage - 1.61m
  • Kirby's Return to Dream Land Deluxe - 1.46m
  • Metroid Prime Remastered - 1.09m
  • Bayonetta 3 - 1.07m
Click to expand...
They specifically said the numbers for newly released titles as of last quarterly report. So stuff like Prime Remastered, Engage, etc.
 
Lord Azrael said:
They specifically said the numbers for newly released titles as of last quarterly report. So stuff like Prime Remastered, Engage, etc.
Click to expand...
I took recent software to mean the most recent software sales data but yes I guess that makes more sense.

Prime and Engage are from more niche Nintendo franchises so I don't think their sales have anything to do with recency. I can't say I follow Fire Emblem enough to comment on the franchises sales but over a million digital only sales already for a shadow dropped GC Metroid remaster seems very impressive to me.
 
Kreese said:
I took recent software to mean the most recent software sales data but yes I guess that makes more sense.

Prime and Engage are from more niche Nintendo franchises so I don't think their sales have anything to do with recency. I can't say I follow Fire Emblem enough to comment on the franchises sales but over a million digital only sales already for a shadow dropped GC Metroid remaster seems very impressive to me.
Click to expand...
this is a kind of bad result for fire emblem, especially since three houses was basscialy a persona sized game, i beielve its sold around 4mil on one release alone.
 
Djehuty said:
this is a kind of bad result for fire emblem, especially since three houses was basscialy a persona sized game, i beielve its sold around 4mil on one release alone.
Click to expand...
Interesting, though there could be a myriad of reasons why FE failed to gain traction of which I can't even begin to speculate because I don't follow the franchise. Anyway, the greater point here getting back to the thread is that the Switch has been a record breaking goldmine of software for Nintendo and done the unthinkable as it looks like the Switch in its seventh year has surged back into the lead worldwide since April.

The poster above said Zelda's sales were not a surprise but I think that's downplaying the fastest selling Nintendo game of all time (from early data anyway) and the effect it has had on hardware sales. It's earth shattering. Nintendo is definitely in uncharted territory here with the Switch, Zelda and the brand awareness the Mario movie has inspired. Logic suggests they won't be able to maintain this kind of momentum with dated hardware, but for now they are defying the perceived loss in value of dated hardware with software so mind blowing that even developers are perplexed with how it was even made. We truly have reached the point of diminishing returns for visual fidelity and Nintendo is seizing advantage because their gameplay systems are so far ahead.
 
Lord Azrael said:
They specifically said the numbers for newly released titles as of last quarterly report. So stuff like Prime Remastered, Engage, etc.
Click to expand...
Fire Emblem Engage very consciously went in a completely different direction to the previous game which was the best selling in the series. Prime was a remaster shadowdropped without any prior advertising. There’s pretty clear reasons as to why certain recent software might be selling less.
 
YoboD said:
Fire Emblem Engage very consciously went in a completely different direction to the previous game which was the best selling in the series. Prime was a remaster shadowdropped without any prior advertising. There’s pretty clear reasons as to why certain recent software might be selling less.
Click to expand...
I don't know why you're telling me, I'm not the one who raised the point. Just clarifying how I interpreted what they meant
 
It's impressive that Switch still has this much momentum despite all the new hardware releases that were supposed to 'kill' it.

Meanwhile the GB never had competition on that level and just like the PS2 in it late years it was dirt cheap.

Switch Software Sales are healthy across the board and most people are picking up the more expensive SWOLED version. It's ridiculous.
 
karmitt said:
I don’t think they’d have done it if they didn’t have equally big games for launch of the next system.

If Nintendo didn’t think their next Zelda was important for launch like Breath of the Wild was for Switch, they likely have other very exiting things on the way. Mario and Metroid have been cooking for quite some time now…
Click to expand...
Yeah developing for only a single platform really freed up a lot of resources and Nintendo has the ability to release multiple big projects every year. I think they have a lot of stuff finalizing already like Mario Kart, Smash or 3D Mario.
 
It_prints_money.gif

Has any Nintendo published Switch game not sold a million copies?
 
Switch is affordable, has a great library, has been subject to some fabulous marketing as of late, and is still seeing quality releases 7 years later.

That said, would momentum slow down if they announced a successor tomorrow? Will it slow after the TotK boom?
 
Yoshifan31 said:
PS2 was more relevant than the PS3 for its first two years

DS was kinda better than the 3DS, why upgrade when you still had Pokemon games on it
Click to expand...
Yeah. I'm sure Nintendo is looking carefully at these two consoles that failed at first because they released too early, and using them as lessons for avoiding a bug fall off.
 
0
efyu_lemonardo said:
Has any Nintendo published Switch game not sold a million copies?
Click to expand...
I think only Sushi Striker, though there’s stuff like Snipperclips and The Stretchers whose numbers we’re unsure about

In any case, almost everything Nintendo puts out ends up becoming a million seller
 
At this point, it'd be extremely wise on Nintendo's part to have the next system be not a total replacement for the Nintendo Switch brand, but an addition to it, like what GameBoy Color was. GBC came 9 years into the GB's lifespan if memory serves. Having a new iteration of a Nintendo Switch that can play and enhance all previous Switch titles, while having its own line of exclusives, would be ideal. I don't know if that model can work as seamlessly as it did for GameBoy, but it'd be ideal for them if they could pull it off.
 
It’s unprecedented for a console manufacturer to have no successor announcement in a console’s sixth year in the market. We’re seven years of the Switch, and still nothing. It would be veeery unprecedented if the Switch 2 ends up releasing in Holiday 2024: the Switch’s EIGHT YEAR IN THE MARKET.

Will console generations now lastva lot longer?
 
ziggyrivers said:
Will console generations now lastva lot longer?
Click to expand...
Frankly, the duration of a console generation isn’t required to be set at 5-6 years. Switch obviously still has gas in the tank, so it’s not a huge deal for it to last another year. And yeah, I feel like console generations are gonna last longer now. PS5 feels like it is only starting to leverage its tech. Ditto for Xbox.
 
Regulus Tera said:
I cannot see it slowing down when a 2D Mario is releasing this year.
Click to expand...

Mario is definitely a sales driver. I'm wondering if we'll see a bit of a slump between here and the eventual marketing push for October though. I can see another limited edition OLED being squeezed out for xmas.
 
You also gotta admit how impressive it is that the console has enough momentum to sell 15 million units, year 7, at BASE MSRP. No price drops or anything.

Imagine if the PS2 or GB held their base MSRP for 7 years and got their unit sales. That'd be nuts.
 
Joe said:
At this point, it'd be extremely wise on Nintendo's part to have the next system be not a total replacement for the Nintendo Switch brand, but an addition to it, like what GameBoy Color was. GBC came 9 years into the GB's lifespan if memory serves. Having a new iteration of a Nintendo Switch that can play and enhance all previous Switch titles, while having its own line of exclusives, would be ideal. I don't know if that model can work as seamlessly as it did for GameBoy, but it'd be ideal for them if they could pull it off.
Click to expand...
Yeah... The problem with that is that Game Boy Color was only ever meant to be a stopgap solution because the Game Boy Advance's development had to be rebooted. Nintendo wanted to succeed the OG Game Boy much sooner but couldn't.
 
meatbag said:
Frankly, the duration of a console generation isn’t required to be set at 5-6 years. Switch obviously still has gas in the tank, so it’s not a huge deal for it to last another year. And yeah, I feel like console generations are gonna last longer now. PS5 feels like it is only starting to leverage its tech. Ditto for Xbox.
Click to expand...
My sentiments exactly. I feel like crossgen is gonna extend the new console’s gen.

I also feel like that, graphics wise, how more realistic can games go? I have a feeling companies like Sony are gonna release their next hardware as something definite in the sense of:
Hey, we can’t go forward graphics wise, so we’re gonna focus in quality content and experiences and just wait until costs go down in order to see what sort of experiences we can deliver new tech with

At the last hour, Sony and Microsoft will have to pull a Nintendo and have a wide array of IPs that can offer unique experiences. Because I feel like realism, cinematic experiences are gonna reach a peak and they’re gonna hit themselves with the ceiling before they start noticing they can’t keep milking that cow any longer
 
Back in 2020 I wouldn't expect Switch to make it to 2023 without a stronger model. But Nintendo makes it work with great software.
2023 looks to be one of the best years for the console. I'm very happy with what we got so far and very excited for what's coming, especially Pikmin, Wonder and RPG.
 
Brock Reiher said:
It is crazy. I can understand why Nintendo doesn't want to cut off the money until they have to, which won't be anytime soo.
Click to expand...
So long as the specs of Switch 2 are up to date for the moment it releases. Supposedly the specs are “taped out” now, according to the hw speculation thread. But if it’s delayed a year or so while Switch 1 keeps selling, they can’t just release the system they originally planned for 2022/23
 
Rampo360 said:
Back in 2020 I wouldn't expect Switch to make it to 2023 without a stronger model. But Nintendo makes it work with great software.
2023 looks to be one of the best years for the console. I'm very happy with what we got so far and very excited for what's coming, especially Pikmin, Wonder and RPG.
Click to expand...
Recipe for success:
• Release a particular game in launch year;
• Release a follow up to that game six years later
 
neil said:
So long as the specs of Switch 2 are up to date for the moment it releases. Supposedly the specs are “taped out” now, according to the hw speculation thread. But if it’s delayed a year or so while Switch 1 keeps selling, they can’t just release the system they originally planned for 2022/23
Click to expand...
I don't see why not. Switch is 7 year old hardware that was outdated when it released and look what it's doing.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.


Back
Top Bottom