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Discussion Gameindustrybiz's Dring on Xbox:Xbox sales flatlining in Europe, majority of Xbox games coming to PS5 at some point, MS putting less focus on Gamepass

Lugia667

Lugia667

Gerudo
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With Xbox, I've heard from a very prominent company and one not so prominent that Xbox's performance in Europe is flatlining. You can follow our monthly coverage in the games market and you can see Xbox's sales are falling and it's fell all throughout last year and it's falling even harder this year.

The major company who released a big game last year said they don't know why they bother supporting it. We've mentioned in a previous podcast that retailers are considering or have began cutting back Xbox stock on their shelves, hardware & games... and now you've got third-party publishers going: "We're putting a lot of effort into creating an Xbox Series S/X version of a game where to be honest with you the market for us is PC and PS5"

And with Xbox putting some of the games on PS5, I understand the majority of them will be coming across at some point, assuming, you know, it progresses as Xbox believes it probably will. I think Xbox is in real trouble as a hardware manufacturer. And that was the thing that came out of GDC for me, because I always just thought, I've always been of the belief that it is the Game Pass delivery system, it's got a good UI, it's got a good controller, if you like Xbox games it's probably the best way to play them, etc. I thought it would be fine but then I didn't really factor in that some developers and publishers might just go, yeah I don't, you know, is there any point? And that is when you can lose it.

I was watching Michael Pachter's podcast and he was talking about how it's all about GamePass for Xbox, yet I've actually been hearing that Microsoft's been putting less focus on GamePass.
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seems like Xbox is about to become....a C-Team

Alos I wonder who that publisher was, apparently it was one who released a "big game" last year
 
Lugia667 said:
Alos I wonder who that publisher was, apparently it was one who released a "big game" last year
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I could see it maybe being Capcom. They put out Street Fighter 6 last year and I get the sense most of their games do decently better on PC/PS than Xbox these days (we've already seen some of their more-niche stuff, like the Battle Network Collection, skip Xbox entirely)
 
I don't put any extra stock in Dring in particular, but you can't really deny the stuff he's saying here. Some of it is just straight up verifiable facts.

It all started with the disastrous Xbox One reveal, but Microsoft did themselves no favors by porting all first party games to Windows while the Xbox brand was still in the dumps. Had they not done that, they might've been able to salvage their hardware sales, but they removed one of the main selling points when the hardware brand was at its lowest. Now it feels like the death spiral is irreversible.

That said, their games on PC was always gonna happen eventually. They care more about the Microsoft Gaming umbrella than they do Xbox hardware specifically. If that's all it was ever gonna be, a tech giant like Microsoft probably would've abandoned the space already after a couple of failures. It's just that the timing ended up being really poor. Platforms like Game Pass and xCloud were always the aspirations.

BUT... now Game Pass has flatlined too. Contracted even. It seems like the model isn't really viable in the long term after all. If you're a very productive gamer then it's great value, but if you only play a couple of big games a year, then not so much. It forced Sony to launch their competitor, which is a great thing for us, but Microsoft is kinda stuck now unfortunately.

It seems like the only move forward for them is to become hardware agnostic after all.
 
I’ve always gotten the impression that Europe has kinda always been a Playstation-dominant market for as long as Playstation has existed, so I’m not particularly shocked Xbox, now at it’s most dire point, isn’t doing so hot over there.

However, and I say this as an Xbox fan and owner of several Xbox Series consoles: I‘m still pretty worried about the future of the Xbox line of consoles. Them putting their games on other consoles, I could not care less about that, in fact I invite it because why not! More people should play good games. But I’m worried about the health of the Xbox business as someone who has invested a lot of my own hard earned money into Xbox hardware and software. I think the hardware is great, and Game Pass is a good deal for me that more than pays for itself. But the first party software has been flop after flop for me, with some very rare exceptions. I like the Forza games (both Motorsport and Horizon) and while it wasn’t for me, Hi-Fi Rush was a neat game that I’m glad was made. But that’s about it for me.

I hope Xbox can right the ship in the coming years. I don’t particularly care for Sony’s software, hardware or behaviour and I’m glad there’s an alternative in the Non-Nintendo game console space. I don’t think Xbox can realistically overtake Sony, that’ll simply never happen, but I do not want to see the Non-Nintendo console market dominated by a single company. That wouldn’t be good for anyone except Sony shareholders and executives.
 
I would not be surprised if the PS5’s attach rate (subtracting off first party stuff and CoD, EA FC, Madden, and 2K) is like 2-4x better than on Xbox due to game pass.

Combine that with low hardware sales and you have a dire software sales disparity.
 
I agree with the idea that Gamepass is stagnant because it's aimed at a defined segment of the public who play a lot and therefore value this type of offer. It's harder to promote a games library when you're Microsoft than a library of series and films when you're Netflix or Disney.

What Gamepass needs to start growing again are premium products that appeal to the widest possible audience. They may have been wrong in thinking that Starfield could be that, but it's obvious that Call Of Duty is the perfect game for it. It doesn't matter if it's multiplatform, the day Call of Duty is available day One on Game Pass, it will clearly boost their offering. What Xbox lacks are really big IPs. The big third-party games are also on Playstation, and Nintendo has its own ecosystem.

As loathsome as their buy-everything-that-moves logic is, I still think that in the long term, if Game Pass becomes a success, it will only be thanks to games that justify a subscription even among the general audience.
 
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XBox is done more or less, the only way they can gain marketshare in a traditional console setting is to make things like COD, Minecraft, Starfield (which is gonna be on PS5 and possibly even Switch 2), Elder Scrolls 6, etc. etc. etc. 100% exclusive.

But they won't do that, so the brand is just going to get into a feedback loop where less people buy it because it has no exclusives, which then just reaffirms MS going multiplatform and just living the good life as the no.1 3rd party pub in the world.

They can still make Steam Deck style subsidized PCs (effectively) with the Microsoft Store as the default way to buy games and just sell that hardware under the "XBox" brand, but the conventional XBox brand that we've known IMO is coming to an end.
 
Scrawnton said:
I really really hop this doesn't make Sony even more cocky with milking us. Hopefully Sony feels a threat from the PC gaming space and continues to offer "value"...
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Sony is gonna price the Playstation 6 out the ass, bet on it, lol. They need to increase their profit margin and with XBox becoming less and less of a threat, there's no incentive to lose money on hardware or even sell at cost.
 
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Scrawnton said:
I really really hop this doesn't make Sony even more cocky with milking us. Hopefully Sony feels a threat from the PC gaming space and continues to offer "value"...
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They will, not so much because they want to squeeze your dollars, but due to the modest margins they make.
 
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I still think Microsoft will continue in HW business at least 5-10 years. Probably their other titles will be ported to Sony/Nintendo systems sooner than later.

Things will get interested in next years.
 
I could see that publisher actually being Larian. They're Belgian, so contextually it makes sense that their thoughts would come up in a conversation about Xbox cratering in Europe, and I know they had issues with developing the Series S version of Baldur's Gate 3, which led to the Xbox version coming out later than PC and PS5.
 
Tab said:
I could see that publisher actually being Larian. They're Belgian, so contextually it makes sense that their thoughts would come up in a conversation about Xbox cratering in Europe, and I know they had issues with developing the Series S version of Baldur's Gate 3, which led to the Xbox version coming out later than PC and PS5.
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I don't think it's them, as I believe Microsoft actually helped port the game over and it's stayed on the best sellers/most played list ever since release. It's probably Capcom with Street Fighter like someone else said.
 
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I will say, one of the supporting reasons floated around during the Activision purchase was that it'd help close the gap between Xbox and PlayStation, and make them more competitive. But if Microsoft keeps trending in this direction, then... we get all of the downsides... without any of the "benefits"... other than Kotick getting the boot 🎉
 
In addition to SF6, Capcom also released RE4 Remake and Monster Hunter Rise as big games last year and Dragon's Dogma 2 this year. It's not them, unless the source is talking specifically about Exoprimal.

Larian's had a ton of problems with BG3 on Xbox, beyond just the Series S split screen policy hold up. There was the months-long lost saves debacle and then the falling behind on patches, both of which were Xbox only issues.

I'm tired of picking up different consoles for exclusives, though. I think this will be the last generation I own multiple, regardless of what happens with Xbox.
 
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em said:
In addition to SF6, Capcom also released RE4 Remake and Monster Hunter Rise as big games last year and Dragon's Dogma 2 this year. It's not them, unless the source is talking specifically about Exoprimal.
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If not Capcom, maybe Warner Bros? I wonder how their games have been doing on the system.

Either way, I really hope it isn't Larian. I want their games to do well.
 
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Xbox as it exists today is done. Their consoles may limp around in some changed form for a few more years but Xbox is moving to becomes the number 1 software publisher rather than number 3 console.
 
Street Fighter 6 is an interesting guess. The game is niche enough that I can see it being surprising to Capcom how little it sold on Xbox, at the same time it's precisely because the game is so niche that it might be important to support as many platforms as possible and it might not really matter to them that it's nicher on Xbox as long as it makes some profit. Capcom in general is pretty supportive of Xbox, so I think the latter makes a bit more sense.

Also kind of interesting because iirc people were putting 2 and 2 together when Japanese publishers published their game sales in the CESA White Papers last year and realized that Xbox actually probably shipped quite a bit of Japanese software, only for the biggest games of course and we don't have a complete picture
 
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Does any third party earn any substansive money from Xbox that isn't about Microsoft paying them to put games on gamepass? Every port comparison for the platforms always show miniscule Xbox sales.

I also think a lot of the anger is having to release games on Xbox instead of Switch due to low power of the Switch, because the Switch is a thriving and growing ecosystem filled with gamers who want to buy games. But the platform is unreachable for the AAA studios in general. It must sting to have to settle for Xbox with miniscule sales instead.
 
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It is interesting that despite XBox weakness, the PS5 don't rise to new highs, quite the opposite. PS5 sales are below Sonys expectations.

The question is if some player abandoned XBox and Playstation completely and went to other places like PC, Switch or even Quest.

People on forums like these often say that Switch is no competitor for XBox and PlayStation because of power and third party games, but this argument is obviously naive. Switch makes it possible to play most new games, even has some of the most critics darlings exclusive. The enormous und unprecedented success of the Switch might show, that gamer prefer convenience before 4k, and even if the Switch has no Call of Duty or the latest Assassins Creed it has thousand of games, that may be enough for many players, so they don't need another console besides Switch.
 
EnergyDrink said:
The question is if some player abandoned XBox and Playstation completely and went to other places like PC, Switch or even Quest.
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PS5 and Xbox Series hardware sales are very similar to PS4 and Xbox One hardware sales, respectively, at this point in the cycle. It's harder to compare software, given the rise of F2P and PSPlus/Game Pass, but anecdotes point to Xbox software sales in particular being abysmal.
 
Tab said:
I could see that publisher actually being Larian. They're Belgian, so contextually it makes sense that their thoughts would come up in a conversation about Xbox cratering in Europe, and I know they had issues with developing the Series S version of Baldur's Gate 3, which led to the Xbox version coming out later than PC and PS5.
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Heck the Mac version launched before the Xbox version and the BG3 supported both Intel and M chips.
Let that sink in. A non-gaming platform got ported over Xbox.

Granted Apple did help the studio.
 
ExoticSpice said:
Heck the Mac version launched before the Xbox version and the BG3 supported both Intel and M chips.
Let that sink in. A non-gaming platform got ported over Xbox.

Granted Apple did help the studio.
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It wasn't really Larian choosing not to port it, it was the Series S not being able to do split screen that delayed it. Microsoft wasn't willing to budge on it until they saw the sales and panicked.
 
LoneRanger said:
I still think Microsoft will continue in HW business at least 5-10 years. Probably their other titles will be ported to Sony/Nintendo systems sooner than later.

Things will get interested in next years.
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They're barely clinging to life as is, the porting their 1st/2nd party games to Sony/Nintendo systems is just going to create a predictable feedback loop of no one wanting an XBox period.

They basically had a choice when they acquired Bethesda + Acti-Blizzard ... make all of those IP exclusive to XBox basically, keep COD multi because you're legally obligated to but make it day 1 Game Pass and double down on battling Sony ...

I think they just realized after getting a taste of those sweet, sweet COD multiplat sales and also seeing Starfield costing a fortune but doing nothing for XBox hardware and have disappointing (relative to expectation and budget) sales that they're just better off being a 3rd party. They can "win" at that. They'll easily probably be the no.1 3rd party publisher in the world, that's not a bad consolation prize that they can save face with.

They don't need the game business, they just want something at this point to be able to point at and say "well we spent all this time and money in the game space ... but at least we got this out of it". Being the no.1 publisher (3rd party, maybe even overall) WW is not a bad feather to have in your cap.
 
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EnergyDrink said:
It is interesting that despite XBox weakness, the PS5 don't rise to new highs, quite the opposite. PS5 sales are below Sonys expectations.
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Because Sony isn't in a much better situation either, tons of layoffs, canceled projects, identity crisis, they increased price of ps plus to an amount me and many don't tolerate, they increased console price instead of cutting it or keeping it stable, they started the 80 euro games trend and kinda feel creatively bankrupt. The console will have a huge boost with GTA 6 just because for some reason Rockstar is often perceived to go along with it so that's where most Gamers™ will play it but outside that it's looking a pretty dull generation for them as well.
 
EnergyDrink said:
It is interesting that despite XBox weakness, the PS5 don't rise to new highs, quite the opposite. PS5 sales are below Sonys expectations.

The question is if some player abandoned XBox and Playstation completely and went to other places like PC, Switch or even Quest.

People on forums like these often say that Switch is no competitor for XBox and PlayStation because of power and third party games, but this argument is obviously naive. Switch makes it possible to play most new games, even has some of the most critics darlings exclusive. The enormous und unprecedented success of the Switch might show, that gamer prefer convenience before 4k, and even if the Switch has no Call of Duty or the latest Assassins Creed it has thousand of games, that may be enough for many players, so they don't need another console besides Switch.
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The difference in graphics between Switch and PS/Xbox is negligible for a lot of people, especially parents. It will be even less noticeable when Switch 2 comes along. Switch is a competitor for those consoles, 100%.
 
Derachi said:
I’ve always gotten the impression that Europe has kinda always been a Playstation-dominant market for as long as Playstation has existed, so I’m not particularly shocked Xbox, now at it’s most dire point, isn’t doing so hot over there.

However, and I say this as an Xbox fan and owner of several Xbox Series consoles: I‘m still pretty worried about the future of the Xbox line of consoles. Them putting their games on other consoles, I could not care less about that, in fact I invite it because why not! More people should play good games. But I’m worried about the health of the Xbox business as someone who has invested a lot of my own hard earned money into Xbox hardware and software. I think the hardware is great, and Game Pass is a good deal for me that more than pays for itself. But the first party software has been flop after flop for me, with some very rare exceptions. I like the Forza games (both Motorsport and Horizon) and while it wasn’t for me, Hi-Fi Rush was a neat game that I’m glad was made. But that’s about it for me.

I hope Xbox can right the ship in the coming years. I don’t particularly care for Sony’s software, hardware or behaviour and I’m glad there’s an alternative in the Non-Nintendo game console space. I don’t think Xbox can realistically overtake Sony, that’ll simply never happen, but I do not want to see the Non-Nintendo console market dominated by a single company. That wouldn’t be good for anyone except Sony shareholders and executives.
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I'm on the same (sinking) boat as you. I like the Xbox hardware, and GamePass, I love the efforts put into BC (I've rebought over the past 3 years so many games that I had sold when I was growing up for the 360), and I'm genuinely worried that Xbox leaving will allow Sony to dominate gaming without competition.

Having said that, I also think the writing's on the wall. Xbox has been dying for the better part of a decade, and right now there is no reason -besides gamepass or being really into retro games- to own an xbox over a PS5. And there won't be a reason to own the next Xbox if it comes out.
 
Ozeiyo said:
I'm on the same (sinking) boat as you. I like the Xbox hardware, and GamePass, I love the efforts put into BC (I've rebought over the past 3 years so many games that I had sold when I was growing up for the 360), and I'm genuinely worried that Xbox leaving will allow Sony to dominate gaming without competition.

Having said that, I also think the writing's on the wall. Xbox has been dying for the better part of a decade, and right now there is no reason -besides gamepass or being really into retro games- to own an xbox over a PS5. And there won't be a reason to own the next Xbox if it comes out.
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I guess if you completely ignore Nintendo, PC, and Mobile, Sony will absolutely dominate gaming without Microsoft.
 
BassForever said:
I guess if you completely ignore Nintendo, PC, and Mobile, Sony will absolutely dominate gaming without Microsoft.
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Ok man, whatever. Let's be accurate, and phrase it as Derachi did: Without the Xbox, Sony will dominate the Non-Nintendo gaming space. You win.

This isn't an amazing outcome. I have my reservations about PC, Nintendo and especially mobile being competition to Sony in the same way as the Xbox was, but it still sucks.


EDIT: Thanks to @SoldierDelta for explaining it better than I did.
 
BassForever said:
I guess if you completely ignore Nintendo, PC, and Mobile, Sony will absolutely dominate gaming without Microsoft.
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Valid statement, but none of those other sectors are home consoles. I know that's pushing the goal post for the argument, but Sony and Microsoft are the only two big names in the home console space. While there's an ongoing argument about if Nintendo is in the same market as Sony/Xbox, it's undeniable that Sony has a specific appeal that aligns with the appeal that Xbox has. Making Sony a monopoly for High-end consoles would kinda suck for everyone involved.

That said, maybe things will shift when the Switch 2 comes out, maybe everyone just migrates to PC, maybe everyone will give up and become shills for the Apple Overlords. Idk. I've got an ongoing belief that the market is slowly shifting from dedicated Home Consoles, but it's too early in the generation to know for absolute certain. Just a matter of waiting I suppose.
 
Not surprised at all.

Game pass for me doesn't even seem like that great of a deal currently, at least not permanently. Similar to other services, I would get it for a month to check out games that don't have demos, maybe keep it for a month more till I finish some, or maybe simply buy them.
XBox was always a less strong alternative to PS here.
 
SoldierDelta said:
Making Sony a monopoly for High-end consoles would kinda suck for everyone involved.
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I don't think we can claim as much with absolute certainty. Nintendo's basically (been) in a monopolistic position within the handheld / hybrid console market, too. Yet things haven't gone (as) bad as some might have anticipated. These companies can't just do whatever they want, because they know all too well that people (as in the mass market) could move on easily, given that consoles are a pure luxury object compared to general computing devices, which still offer a lot of casual game entertainment for a general audience.
 
Ozeiyo said:
Ok man, whatever. Let's be accurate, and phrase it as Derachi did: Without the Xbox, Sony will dominate the Non-Nintendo gaming space. You win.

This isn't an amazing outcome. I have my reservations about PC, Nintendo and especially mobile being competition to Sony in the same way as the Xbox was, but it still sucks.


EDIT: Thanks to @SoldierDelta for explaining it better than I did.
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SoldierDelta said:
Valid statement, but none of those other sectors are home consoles. I know that's pushing the goal post for the argument, but Sony and Microsoft are the only two big names in the home console space. While there's an ongoing argument about if Nintendo is in the same market as Sony/Xbox, it's undeniable that Sony has a specific appeal that aligns with the appeal that Xbox has. Making Sony a monopoly for High-end consoles would kinda suck for everyone involved.

That said, maybe things will shift when the Switch 2 comes out, maybe everyone just migrates to PC, maybe everyone will give up and become shills for the Apple Overlords. Idk. I've got an ongoing belief that the market is slowly shifting from dedicated Home Consoles, but it's too early in the generation to know for absolute certain. Just a matter of waiting I suppose.
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We also have to accept that while our little gamer (tm) bubble is hyper focus on HD gaming consoles, that's a fairly small segment of the market. Also let's be honest, outside of Sony making PS+ a tad better*, they've basically bullied the market for years now since neither the One or the Series have been serious competition for them. It's partially what made their cries about MS buying ABK and potentially "losing COD would kill us" laughable.

You can't dismiss mobile, pc, or Nintendo out of hand here, because time and money are finite resources that compete for every gamers time across all platforms. All 3 of those are all far more competitive with Sony then say the Steam Deck is in the "handheld market"**, yet some people in the gamer (tm) bubble continue to make that arguement.

*They also jacked the price of PS+ massively despite adding a back catalog of games to play. So while it was one step forward it was still two steps back imo.

**Nintendo and the game industry at large don't consider the Switch a handheld, it's part of the HD console gaming market. It's really only the gamer (tm) bubble trying to draw meaningless lines in the sand.
 
Imitatio said:
I don't think we can claim as much with absolute certainty. Nintendo's basically (been) in a monopolistic position within the handheld / hybrid console market, too. Yet things haven't gone (as) bad as some might have anticipated. These companies can't just do whatever they want, because they know all too well that people (as in the mass market) could move on easily, given that consoles are a pure luxury object compared to general computing devices, which still offer a lot of casual game entertainment for a general audience.
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That's actually a very compelling point. I do think Nintendo is aware of resting on their laurels like with how they approached the late-Wii/Early Wii U life is too dangerous to try a second time, and I think Sony might be aware of that too (if they learned anything from the PS3 at least, or even their live-service push this gen).

I've still got concerns given how different Nintendo behaves when compared to Sony, but this is a very good point overall.
BassForever said:
We also have to accept that while our little gamer (tm) bubble is hyper focus on HD gaming consoles, that's a fairly small segment of the market. Also let's be honest, outside of Sony making PS+ a tad better*, they've basically bullied the market for years now since neither the One or the Series have been serious competition for them. It's partially what made their cries about MS buying ABK and potentially "losing COD would kill us" laughable.

You can't dismiss mobile, pc, or Nintendo out of hand here, because time and money are finite resources that compete for every gamers time across all platforms. All 3 of those are all far more competitive with Sony then say the Steam Deck is in the "handheld market"**, yet some people in the gamer (tm) bubble continue to make that arguement.

*They also jacked the price of PS+ massively despite adding a back catalog of games to play. So while it was one step forward it was still two steps back imo.

**Nintendo and the game industry at large don't consider the Switch a handheld, it's part of the HD console gaming market. It's really only the gamer (tm) bubble trying to draw meaningless lines in the sand.
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Another good point. I do think semantics are a big problem when it comes to our bubble. Though, as a smaller point, Xbox tried to push this exact angle during the FTC hearings last year with the Switch not being a part of "The High-End Game Console Scene" apparently. Maybe there's a strong difference between the industry's perspective and consumer perspective, though I jumped out of the latter's perspective the second I decided to join the Hardware Thread.

The amount of people who immediately said "Oh the Steam Deck is the Switch killer" when it was revealed kinda gives evidence to your point. You can't dismiss other platforms due to how intertwined they are with eachother (outside of arguably Mobile gaming because the majority of that space is entirely independent from PC and Console gaming to the point of being irrelevant to most of the market research performed by the gaming companies). I still think Sony and Microsoft's direct competition are with eachother, but the second that competition is removed... well we're just back to Nintendo vs. Playstation. If one of them, hypothetically, was removed, then it'd be which ever remained vs. PC.
 
Xbox dropping out wouldn’t really cause PS5 to dominate the high end console market when it already does anyways.

PC, PS5, Switch, Steam Deck, hell even tablets are all very different from each other but still competitors to one degree or another. And consumers often buy more than one of these, as opposed to other different markets where it’s one product and nothing else.

I really don’t think “monopolies” are really something we have to worry too much about in the gaming space when there are so many different corners of it that are super successful in their own ways, and some often support the success of the other corners.
 
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SoldierDelta said:
That's actually a very compelling point. I do think Nintendo is aware of resting on their laurels like with how they approached the late-Wii/Early Wii U life is too dangerous to try a second time, and I think Sony might be aware of that too (if they learned anything from the PS3 at least, or even their live-service push this gen).

I've still got concerns given how different Nintendo behaves when compared to Sony, but this is a very good point overall.

Another good point. I do think semantics are a big problem when it comes to our bubble. Though, as a smaller point, Xbox tried to push this exact angle during the FTC hearings last year with the Switch not being a part of "The High-End Game Console Scene" apparently. Maybe there's a strong difference between the industry's perspective and consumer perspective, though I jumped out of the latter's perspective the second I decided to join the Hardware Thread.

The amount of people who immediately said "Oh the Steam Deck is the Switch killer" when it was revealed kinda gives evidence to your point. You can't dismiss other platforms due to how intertwined they are with eachother (outside of arguably Mobile gaming because the majority of that space is entirely independent from PC and Console gaming to the point of being irrelevant to most of the market research performed by the gaming companies). I still think Sony and Microsoft's direct competition are with eachother, but the second that competition is removed... well we're just back to Nintendo vs. Playstation. If one of them, hypothetically, was removed, then it'd be which ever remained vs. PC.
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Both sides in the ABK acquisition would include or exclude Nintendo from the console market when it fit their narrative. Though I don't want to devolve this thread into an ABK acquisition relitigation so I'll drop that here.

I think the whole industry is waiting with bated breath to see what the Switch 2 is, how it does, and how scalable ports of PS5/XBS games are to it. With both Sony and Microsoft entertaining the idea of more multiplatform releases, a Switch 2 with similar sales momentum, especially in Asia, could go a long way toward helping these massively expensive AAAA games become profitable again.

It will be interesting to see if Microsoft finds becoming the largest 3rd party publisher of games that go to Nintendo, Sony, PC, and mobile (which ms has made it clear they want to do) a better route in the next 5-10 years. My guess is they'll do one last hurrah for Xbox consoles before pivoting into more of a pure 3rd party. As a pure 3rd party it'll likely be easier for them to get Nintendo and Sony on board with allowing GP as an app on their systems the way other 3rd parties like EA and Ubisoft have.
 
BassForever said:
Both sides in the ABK acquisition would include or exclude Nintendo from the console market when it fit their narrative. Though I don't want to devolve this thread into an ABK acquisition relitigation so I'll drop that here.

I think the whole industry is waiting with bated breath to see what the Switch 2 is, how it does, and how scalable ports of PS5/XBS games are to it. With both Sony and Microsoft entertaining the idea of more multiplatform releases, a Switch 2 with similar sales momentum, especially in Asia, could go a long way toward helping these massively expensive AAAA games become profitable again.

It will be interesting to see if Microsoft finds becoming the largest 3rd party publisher of games that go to Nintendo, Sony, PC, and mobile (which ms has made it clear they want to do) a better route in the next 5-10 years. My guess is they'll do one last hurrah for Xbox consoles before pivoting into more of a pure 3rd party. As a pure 3rd party it'll likely be easier for them to get Nintendo and Sony on board with allowing GP as an app on their systems the way other 3rd parties like EA and Ubisoft have.
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Sorry for bringing up the ABK acquisition, even in the discord I moderate I literally had to pin a message saying "For fucks sake, stop talking about the acquisition unless there's a significant update, it's the same conversation over and over". I just thought it was an interesting aside.

But yeah, I think the Switch 2 is going to be a significant release. The Switch is already the biggest console of the big three in Asia and it's very likely that it'll happen again with the Switch 2. I think Microsoft porting games to Switch 2 would mean great things in terms of getting sales of their games in Japan, I'd honestly say it'd be worth having mutli-plat titles with Switch at launch if their incentive is profit instead of console growth. We also might see a situation where publishers scale back the uhh... scale of games to make smaller budget titles that can work on both PS5 and Switch 2. Matter of time ig.

I don't think Microsoft is going to be an exclusively third-party publisher any time soon, but I do think releasing their games on all platforms could yield some neat hither-to-undiscovered benefits for them in the console space. Having a console with a great service with games available everywhere is probably a perfectly viable strategy that noone has considered yet. Also Game Pass on multiple platforms, while a bit weird, would be great for the consumer in the end, I'd dig it. Time will tell though. I don't see Sony doing the same though, if only because they still seem pretty motivated to have PC releases be long after the initial console launch.
 
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EnergyDrink said:
It is interesting that despite XBox weakness, the PS5 don't rise to new highs, quite the opposite. PS5 sales are below Sonys expectations.

The question is if some player abandoned XBox and Playstation completely and went to other places like PC, Switch or even Quest.

People on forums like these often say that Switch is no competitor for XBox and PlayStation because of power and third party games, but this argument is obviously naive. Switch makes it possible to play most new games, even has some of the most critics darlings exclusive. The enormous und unprecedented success of the Switch might show, that gamer prefer convenience before 4k, and even if the Switch has no Call of Duty or the latest Assassins Creed it has thousand of games, that may be enough for many players, so they don't need another console besides Switch.
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While I agree the Swtich is a competitor to XB/PS, I think for the most part those players are moving to PC.

Imo both PS/XB have been long benefitting from a price positioning advantage. Players were locked-in in their ecosystem beacuse they were both the most cost-effective way to access the vast majority of AAA and indie titles. Not only that, for a wide range of players the intial investment for making a PC rig was simply too expensive to consider. In addition, this lock-in effect was further reinforced by console exclusive content.

Now I think in the last 10 years (more or less) the situation has been slowly but steadily shifting.

On one hand PS/XB have been losing grip on their price advantage due to two factors. One is demographics, meaning the "mainstream" gaming population is getting relatively older and there are more higher spending players willing to get an high-end PC over a console, to get the best experience as possible (and this is the target the PS5 Pro is aimed at)
At the same time PCs in general have become much more price competitive, expecially for players that are not interested in 4K, you can get a 1080p gaming rig for a price that is comparable to a PS5 and you don't have to pay for subscriptions, games are generally cheper, you can access a larger legacy library, etc.

On the other hand, while console exlusives continue to exist (although I'd argue there are less than ever), I think in the last years those haven't been particualarly effective at attracting new younger players. It seems to me that most of big hits amoung younger players in the last 10+ years have been multiplatform titles.

Another thing to add, there is a whole new segment of high-performance and competitive gaming that has been growing a lot in the last decade (at least), in that segment consoles simply haven't been paricualrly competitive.

So, at the end, my point is the "traditional" / "mainstream" / "high-end" (call it as you like) console market is gradually shrinking, this is why PS5 is not compensating for the lack of XB sales. This doesn't mean I expect traditional consoles to disappear, but with the current trend there is not enough space anymore for two competitors with a very similar form factor and pricing range/model.
 
Xbox was always a difficult market for them here but it's also not hard to say that Microsoft dug their own grave. In Europe, they were essentially competing with their own market from the start (PCs became way more prolific here in the 80s and 90s, so PC gaming always was a "thing" here).

That said, their main mistake always has been the assumption that since English is the lingua franca, non-anglo support isn't important. The country list that Xbox officially supports is downright embarrassing and multi language games often just aren't a thing - even for languages like Spanish that are spoken outside the European continent, its not weird to just... not see them in Xbox games, while both Sony and especially Nintendo have always prioritized that (Nintendo is the one who more or less standardized the universal 5 localization options - Japanese, German, Spanish, English and French.). Their interfaces also are infamous for language locking depending on store region and from local experience use machine translation. That combined with the total lack of advertising is what's killing them right now.

Also, one quick thing - it's not that Europe is a "Sony stronghold" either. I'm also... not sure where this narrative comes from? Statistically speaking, the dominant console in Europe is the Nintendo Switch and its not even a close comparison. The only exception is the UK because again, the Xbox is overly anglophone focused.

I would like to note though, even outside of Europe, Microsoft has a long history of either failing to break into a market over and over (Japan) or the bizarre decision to not market there at all (Xbox should be able to do great in countries like Brazil and India, given they're at a somewhat lower price point than most other consoles but they just... don't bother, which has left Sony free pickings). They only have "real" dominance in the US and the UK.
 
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As a pretty vocal Xbox fan it's unsurprising. The combination of neglecting Europe since the console's inception and the recent string of small, very unique but ultimately niche title experiences just lead to overall disinterest.

I'll never rag on the releases MS has put out in the past couple of years. Pentinment, Hi-Fi Rush, Grounded, the AoE sequels and remakes, As Dusk Falls etc. are all extremely great and refreshing experiences in a sea of AAA megabudget sludge.

But, the core audiences want that megabudget sludge, no matter how much someone like me bemoans about it.

At the same time however I think MS has an understanding of where the market is going, their place in it, and they will prolly adapt faster to the shrinking investments and homogenization that's running rampant in the game rn. Bring on that Xbox handheld.
 
Bait02 said:
While I agree the Swtich is a competitor to XB/PS, I think for the most part those players are moving to PC.

Imo both PS/XB have been long benefitting from a price positioning advantage. Players were locked-in in their ecosystem beacuse they were both the most cost-effective way to access the vast majority of AAA and indie titles. Not only that, for a wide range of players the intial investment for making a PC rig was simply too expensive to consider. In addition, this lock-in effect was further reinforced by console exclusive content.

Now I think in the last 10 years (more or less) the situation has been slowly but steadily shifting.

On one hand PS/XB have been losing grip on their price advantage due to two factors. One is demographics, meaning the "mainstream" gaming population is getting relatively older and there are more higher spending players willing to get an high-end PC over a console, to get the best experience as possible (and this is the target the PS5 Pro is aimed at)
At the same time PCs in general have become much more price competitive, expecially for players that are not interested in 4K, you can get a 1080p gaming rig for a price that is comparable to a PS5 and you don't have to pay for subscriptions, games are generally cheper, you can access a larger legacy library, etc.

On the other hand, while console exlusives continue to exist (although I'd argue there are less than ever), I think in the last years those haven't been particualarly effective at attracting new younger players. It seems to me that most of big hits amoung younger players in the last 10+ years have been multiplatform titles.

Another thing to add, there is a whole new segment of high-performance and competitive gaming that has been growing a lot in the last decade (at least), in that segment consoles simply haven't been paricualrly competitive.

So, at the end, my point is the "traditional" / "mainstream" / "high-end" (call it as you like) console market is gradually shrinking, this is why PS5 is not compensating for the lack of XB sales. This doesn't mean I expect traditional consoles to disappear, but with the current trend there is not enough space anymore for two competitors with a very similar form factor and pricing range/model.
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Streaming among other factors has also helped PC gaming grow significantly. Many young people stick to what their favourite internet personality is doing, and a lot of them have gravitated to PCs over the years, which fits their own work the best, too. That's something PS and Xbox can't really do much about on their end, other than trying to gain some of that mindshare by releasing on PC, too. (And that's exactly what's happening, so yeah.)
 
GamePass just doesn’t strike me as valuable in an era where games so regularly go on sale. I could spend years just playing my backlog and I maybe get 5-6 new games a year. It’s not like TV/movies where you could be streaming tons of stuff across decades that is often impractical if not impossible to get in other formats. I imagine for a lot of people the value proposition just isn’t there.
 
I genuinely think Starfield was one of the most consequential games of the past decade. It felt like it before release - like Xbox's last roll of the dice. And frankly it feels like it even more now. Compare the discourse around the future of Xbox now to that of one year ago. It's gone from hopeful - Starfield and ABK acquisition will change everything! - to legitimate belief among many that the hardware line won't survive.

When Starfield hit and did so little for Xbox hardware sales, the future issues facing their business must have suddenly come into focus very sharply for Xbox execs.

You've bought Bethesda, one of the guaranteed hit-makers in the industry, you've run a perfect marketing campaign with absurd levels of hype... and the huge new game has hardly made a dent in hardware sales or game pass sign-ups. In fact, the ratio of PS5 sales to XSX sales only accelerates. And you've now spent a whopping $69 billion on Activision - can you really afford to bet that whole amount that making those games exclusive will resurrect your hardware business - that those games being exclusive will somehow overcome very deep cultural aversion to your brand in Asia and continental Europe, that those games will do what Starfield couldn't? And that they will do so to the extent that you will be able to sell enough copies of those ABK games or game pass subs to cover all the dev costs and start to earn back some of that outlay? Of course you can't. And your best weapon - making CoD exclusive - was lost in the regulatory battles anyway.

The plan is going to be to keep making hardware but be an entirely multiplatform publisher. But without exclusives (and when your rival HAS exclusives) I don't see how the hardware line can survive.

Series X has been great to me, I've really loved it. But I've stopped spending money on Xbox and will be buying a PS5 (Pro, hopefully) this holiday. Given the facts we have here, nothing else makes sense. And once that becomes the gaming community consensus... bye bye Xbox.

Crazy how quickly all this appears to have accelerated.
 
Mekanos said:
GamePass just doesn’t strike me as valuable in an era where games so regularly go on sale. I could spend years just playing my backlog and I maybe get 5-6 new games a year. It’s not like TV/movies where you could be streaming tons of stuff across decades that is often impractical if not impossible to get in other formats. I imagine for a lot of people the value proposition just isn’t there.
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Exactly. How much is Gamepass? £150 a year or something like that? I get that that might appeal to very heavy users who otherwise play the latest games at launch every month and spend hundreds a year on video games. But for me, the idea of just renting a vast library of stuff I won’t play at such a high price makes no sense. I play half a dozen games a year, am happy to wait and buy them at steep discounts outside of 1 or 2 that are invariably rpgs. I’d rather just pick up the handful I actually want and sell them on afterwards if I’m just going to rent them.
 
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Imitatio said:
Streaming among other factors has also helped PC gaming grow significantly. Many young people stick to what their favourite internet personality is doing, and a lot of them have gravitated to PCs over the years, which fits their own work the best, too. That's something PS and Xbox can't really do much about on their end, other than trying to gain some of that mindshare by releasing on PC, too. (And that's exactly what's happening, so yeah.)
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The decrease of 1st party titles, and the dilution of AAA gaming has done a lot to also devalue PS and Xbox. The games they do release take longer to come out and their main claim to fame is their production values, which means very little when PC games can do that. And we've been seeing more and more games that are just alright visually taking center stage.

So much of the brand of these machines are tied to their 1st party games and that is what drives the mindshare of internet personalities. But if the games don't come out regularly, then these personalities got a void they have to fill with something else and that something else is likely playable on PCs.
 
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