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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (New Staff Post, Please read)

Isn’t TSMCs 4N mode supposed to be expensive? Like the charged Nvidia more than other customers?
I don't know about the price relative to other clients, but generally speaking, TSMC's N5 family nodes are presumably can command the highest prices by virtue of being the best, so yes, the wafer price is expensive.

But it's years too late to think about it in terms of '$$$ to spend in the present/future'. It's now about '$$$ was already spent in the past for this capacity; what does Nvidia do with this capacity?'. And you have to do something with this capacity. Too late to ask for refunds, as there's no time for TSMC to turn around and find another client for that capacity.
Theoretically, if it is the case that the REDACTED is indeed on 4N, and if one can predict that conditions are such that maybe only so much supply of consumder dgpus is really needed to avoid spending too much on warehousing excess inventory, it'd be lovely for Nvidia to be able to choose to turn some of that capacity into more stable revenue, like a game system.
 
Isn’t TSMCs 4N mode supposed to be expensive? Like the charged Nvidia more than other customers?
Nvidia already paid for the capacity. how much they charge Nintendo would probably depend on how much many chips they can get off a wafer. at 4N, these chips would be smaller than the TX1 is, I think. so that would be pretty cheap
 
We had these very same discussions last year, about whether their Switch projections were too high and if that was a clue. Nobody in the real world made a big deal about it. Since then it turns out those projections were too high, and have been downwardly revised by 3 million.

Don't distract people with the giant thing over the hill when you're trying to sell them a huge production that's been in the works 5+ years?

Projecting the Switch to have big sales in 2022 after its monster 2020 and 2021 was optimistic

Projecting massive HW sales in 2023 after a declining 2022 would be closer to delusional and would definitely be a sign of a new console coming soon.
 
Regarding the topic of Nintendo announcing new hardware at or before their first investor meeting of the FY, I think there's a big difference between confirming the existence of it and actually announcing it. Switch released in the last month of FY17, and at the start of that FY, Nintendo had confirmed that they'd be releasing some nebulous thing code-named NX, but had given absolutely zero details about it. It could have been a videogame-playing toaster for all we knew. The actual announcement of Switch only occurred about half way through the FY.

If [redacted] is releasing in FY24 (which I expect), then I do think it's possible that they could confirm the existence of new hardware releasing in the FY at or before their investor call, without actually "announcing" it in the sense that we all think of an announcement. That is, they could say "We're planning on releasing a new hardware platform this financial year, sales of which aren't included in our forecast. Full details will be provided at a future date." Maybe add that it's a successor to the Switch to make it clear to investors that they don't plan on abandoning the Switch audience. Then have an actual announcement in June or July or whatever.

I don't see this happening at all because... This would mean they would be announcing the Switch 2 within 2-3 days of TotK.

If it's coming out before April 2024, it's getting announced at least a week before TotK.
 
Thanks for the answers (and @Dakhil too). But now I'm concerned that we won't see Drake until late '24, as Nvidia don't seem to release Tegra SoCs until near the end of GPU generation. My thought is that if Drake is on 4N, it might not come out until Nvidia have produced most of their run of Lovelace cards.
Nvidia paid a hefty sum to TSMC to secure allocation for 4N in 2021. If T239 is manufactured on 4N, they would have known it at the time, and included it in the allocation they were paying for. As it happens, consumer GPU demand has dropped considerably since then, so I'm sure Nvidia would be happy for Nintendo to come along and start using up that 4N capacity they've paid for.

Isn’t TSMCs 4N mode supposed to be expensive? Like the charged Nvidia more than other customers?
Per wafer, it's almost certainly the most expensive manufacturing process currently in use. Per chip is a bit more complex, because it offers much higher transistor density, and therefore can fit many more chips on a wafer. This article claims that in 2022 Nvidia were paying TSMC 2.2x as much for a 4N wafer as they were paying Samsung for a 8N wafer. However, Nvidia's chips on 4N have 2.7x the transistor count as their 8N chips did, so this implies they're actually paying almost 20% less per transistor to use the newer technology. If you're comparing a chip with a fixed transistor count across the two processes, then the gap is going to be even higher, because yields are going to be much better on the smaller 4N chip than the bigger 8N chip.

How TSMC's 7nm/6nm processes, or Samsung's 5nm/4nm processes compare I don't know. Prices would have fluctuated quite a bit over the past few years, increasing during the chip crunch and now decreasing as we hit oversupply, however it's worth keeping in mind that the decision was made based on what Nvidia thought wafer prices would be in 2023, not what they are. It seems that work started sometime in late 2019 or early 2020, and there's a good chance that they chose the manufacturing process before COVID hit, so we're likely looking at a decision based on Nvidia's pre-COVID estimates of 2023 wafer prices (heavily informed by what TSMC and Samsung were telling them at the time). I can't say what those estimates are, but it's notable that at around the same time Nvidia were deciding on the manufacturing process to use for a variety of other 2022/2023 chips (H100, Ada, Grace) and in every one of those cases they chose 4N. Even the entry-level AD107 GPU in the Ada lineup is manufactured on 4N, whereas AMD hedged their bets by splitting the RDNA3 lineup over TSMC's 6nm and 5nm processes. That suggests that Nvidia were very confident that 4N would be economically viable for even low-end products by 2022/2023.
 
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It seems bizarre to overshadow TotK with an announcement of the Switch 2 with no details.
You do realize that TOTK is the sequel to what is regarded critically as the greatest game of all time, right? Overshadow it is going to be a tall order.

The game will be fine. The switch 2 announcement (if it’s then) would be fine.


Hell, Nintendo isn’t even marketing the damn game and it is still one of if not the most anticipated game of all time and will continue to sell throughout the year.
 
It seems bizarre to overshadow TotK with an announcement of the Switch 2 with no details.
On the 11th of June 2020, Sony had a major PS5 showcase, showing the hardware itself for the first time, as well as debuting a number of major titles running on the new console. On 19th of June 2020, just 8 days later, they released Last of Us Part II on PS4, and it had no problem at all breaking sales records.

People won't suddenly forget ToTK exists just because Nintendo mentions that they're working on new hardware.
 
Is there any more information about this second SoC they juggled along with the TX1 before ultimately deciding on the latter?
It was called "Mont Blanc" and it was in development with a partner company called STMicroelectronics (no space). ST is a giant Dutch company, and they actually manufacture the Amiibo NFC stack for the Switch.

Mont Blanc went through a couple designs, and the final version before it was scrapped was a quad core ARM 53 CPU cluster combined with a custom "Decaf" GPU. "Decaf" was, essentially, the Wii U's "Latte" GPU stripped of all its Wii/GameCube backwards compatible circuitry, and then cut in half. Mont Blanc's performance target was actually not only lower than the Switch, but lower than the Wii U. Lemme give you some context.

Iwata wanted to unify handheld and TV console software development. It was too expensive. Mobile GPUs were in their infancy, and the 3DS had a totally different GPU from the DS. Basically Nintendo had to start over from scratch with each new mobile console. But on the TV side, they had been developing their GPU platform all the way back to the N64. Nintendo had top tier 3D software engineers squeezing all this power out of a design they knew like the back of their hand, and none of that knowledge - or engine work - could be reused on the (more successful) handheld side.

Nintendo launched Project Indy. Project Indy had two goals. One, standardize the handheld GPU platform with the TV platform, or as Iwata put it "absorb the Wii U architecture". The second was to build a new concept for the Next Handheld, the successor to the 3DS.

On the concept side, Nintendo tried a bunch of Wild Nintendo Shit. One of the feature they played with involved casting from the handheld to the TV...

On the chip side, they began working on "Decaf". Decaf took the Wii U's "Latte" GPU, stripped out all the legacy support, and made it much smaller. The idea being that the Wii U would run Latte, the handheld would run Decaf, and the Wii U's successor would run a big version of Decaf (Half Caf?). Indy would combine Decaf with ARM CPUs, because those were/are the standard for low power, high performance mobile devices. That combined chip was Mont Blanc, which would also include things like memory and IO controllers and all the other bells and whistles that a custom SOC could deliver.

While Nintendo worked on Mont Blanc with ST, the concept for Indy was evolving. "Casting" had latency problems, but "docking" was promising. Somewhere in 2014, docking wasn't just a feature, it became the core concept, and the device was given a name - The Switch. The gigaleak has a document for what a Mont Blanc based Switch would look like, dated pretty late in 2014, in fact.

But at the point at which The Switch wasn't just a 3DS successor but also a Wii U successor, Nintendo actually didn't need Decaf. The platforms would be unified not by a shared architecture, but by literally being the same device. If they dropped Decaf, they'd lose their historical investment, but on the other hand, they had designed Decaf to be a mini Wii U in performance, and now it needed to beat the Wii U to be its successor.

Nintendo was already familiar with the Tegra line, and in 2014, the security team at Nintendo did an analysis of both the Mont Blanc design and the (unreleased) Tegra X1 design for the Switch. TX1 actually had some problems in Nintendo's view, and they were concerned about possible security holes leading to piracy. Nvidia did some fairly last minute overhauls of the Tegra Security Module to pass Nintendo's security review - apparently not even being sure they'd get the contract.*

While it's not documented in the Gigaleak why Nintendo went with Tegra X1 over Mont Blanc I think the answers are pretty obvious. Once Indy became the successor to not just the 3DS but the Wii U, Mont Blanc couldn't cut it. It wasn't fast enough, but more important, it wasn't ready. Tegra X1s were already in production at the end of 2014, but Mont Blanc wasn't even ready to tape out.

Nvidia was also hungry for the contract. Not only did Nvidia redesign the TSM for Nintendo before the contract was signed, they built NVN before the contract was signed. Nintendo had 15+ years of software development invested in the Wii U's GPU they had to toss, but Nvidia was willing to put their extensive driver experience on their own hardware up for Nintendo's use and put their money where they mouth was.

There are documents from December of 2014 still talking about a Mont Blanc based Switch, but I suspect in honesty that the deal with Nvidia was de facto done at that point, even if on paper ST was still in the game. 3 months later, in March, Nvidia and Nintendo had not only signed the contract, they had built a functional Switch prototype. Nintendo shifted every Wii U game that wasn't announced over to the Switch, and set a release target of October 2016. They were booking it.

At some point after the Switch's release, some folks in the fan community put what they new about Project Indy together and started to think of it as a separate console built on Mont Blanc. But Indy is the Switch, they were always the same project, and Mont Blanc is mostly interesting not for what it could have been but for what it never was.

We have these rumors of a cancelled Pro, and 11 dev kits and spice. Mont Blanc had devkits - but they were Wii U's wired up to off the shelf ARM chips. And again, these were devkits for Indy, a device we got, but in a vastly different internal design.

And when imagining a cancelled T239, or a T239 repurposed by Nvidia, consider how ST didn't try to salvage 2 years of development work on Mont Blanc by repurposing a product that essentially had no customers except Nintendo or Nintendo's competitors.




* Side note, this is quite hilarious for two reasons. One, none of their other potential customers really needed the Trusted Computing aspects that Nintendo did, and two, the TSM would be the gateway that would allow the Switch to be jailbroken in the first place.
 
If Nintendo had indeed cancelled their new hardware so far into its development (being actively worked on as recently as few months ago), the ramifications would be huge and involve several thousands of people ranging from Nintendo, Nvidia, subcontractors, development studios and possibly marketing people.

You wouldn't hear about this cancellation from random YouTuber #1 or #2. Instead, you'd probably have loads of people with an interest in the business indirectly alluding at how fucked up the situation is with Nintendo, while high profile journalists would have a field day making articles about Nintendo's dire situation in the console market for the upcoming years.

As for Nintendo, they would be hard at work trying to convince us that the current Switch is the way to go, probably announcing new exciting games left and right and repurposing formerly Drake exclusive into TX1 compatible software. While scrambling to release their new generation for end of 2025 or early 2026, investing millions which could definitely show in some ways. Furukawa's position would be quite precarious and we'd see some high level executives being either demoted if not outright fired.

Cancelling a console so late into its development, in the year 2023 of our Lord, is very different from doing so in the 90's with the SNES CD.

- Firstly because we're talking about the machine carrying the entirety of their business for the next 7ish years, and not the CD addon to an aging home console, while you have the Gameboy on the side, your replacement machine slated for 2 years later, and you are outrageously dominating both markets anyway.

- Secondly because the cost of developing a new machine and the timeframe is probably markedly higher nowadays, especially after the worst pandemic in 100 years.

- Thirdly, because Nintendo now knows the price and possible implications of cancelling a hardware: last time they did, it created their nemesis which could have very well Sega-ed them if not for the stroke of genius that were the Wii and the DS.

My words have no value when it comes to reassuring people, but Nintendo hasn't cancelled Drake and I don't even need my Shizuoka-grown tea leaves to assert that.
Well you see... my counterpoint is Nintendo would cancel the Drake to let the Switch run in infinitum because it's too early to replace the system (lol 6 years) and Switch runs everything fine as long as I keep lowering my standards.

So there.
 
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You really want me to name drop, when a link was literally posted on the same page? What's your end goal exactly? Anyway, not worth my time.
Respectfully, I am going to assume that this is a bit of naming confusion? By "Drake" I assume you mean the Nintendo console, not the Nvidia chip. We've used the name to mean both interchangeably around here for a while and it's super confusing. There is a reason I leapt on REDACTED so fast, to help clear that up.

The link you refer to does not say Drake-the-Chip is cancelled, which is what I think @bellydrum - and me, on first read - got from your post, and I assume not what you intended. I assume you meant Drake-the-Console, which I refer to as REDACTED.

For the Switch project, Nintendo worked with a company to design an SOC, made devkits, shifted to a more powerful design afterward, cancelled the SOC, moved to a different SOC, and shipped the new hardware just a couple years later, and we never heard about it till the Gigaleak. The idea that REDACTED did the same is, at least, not unprecedented. It doesn't mean Drake the chip - or even REDACTED/Drake-the-console was cancelled.
 
In @Bosintang 's defense there have been a number of people coming into the thread asking if Drake/T239 (the chip) is cancelled, probably mostly due to that Twitter account we all deemed to be unreliable.
 
@oldpuck - You’re doing the Lord work man. That was a great retelling of the events leading to the Switch. I had never heard all those details told so coherently before. It was a page turner!
 
On the 11th of June 2020, Sony had a major PS5 showcase, showing the hardware itself for the first time, as well as debuting a number of major titles running on the new console. On 19th of June 2020, just 8 days later, they released Last of Us Part II on PS4, and it had no problem at all breaking sales records.

People won't suddenly forget ToTK exists just because Nintendo mentions that they're working on new hardware.
i think users on the PS ecosystem was also fairly comfortable their purchases on PS4 will carry over in some way to the PS5 and iirc BC was already known.
I think it's a fair comment to say Nintendo fans are less certain about this with Nintendo, while we suspect that will be the case, we still have respected devs like MVG saying its too difficult or expensive etc. etc.

And frankly I can see his point, Nintendo hasn't earned that assumed trust, yet...
 
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It was called "Mont Blanc" and it was in development with a partner company called STMicroelectronics (no space). ST is a giant Dutch company, and they actually manufacture the Amiibo NFC stack for the Switch.

Mont Blanc went through a couple designs, and the final version before it was scrapped was a quad core ARM 53 CPU cluster combined with a custom "Decaf" GPU. "Decaf" was, essentially, the Wii U's "Latte" GPU stripped of all its Wii/GameCube backwards compatible circuitry, and then cut in half. Mont Blanc's performance target was actually not only lower than the Switch, but lower than the Wii U. Lemme give you some context.

Iwata wanted to unify handheld and TV console software development. It was too expensive. Mobile GPUs were in their infancy, and the 3DS had a totally different GPU from the DS. Basically Nintendo had to start over from scratch with each new mobile console. But on the TV side, they had been developing their GPU platform all the way back to the N64. Nintendo had top tier 3D software engineers squeezing all this power out of a design they knew like the back of their hand, and none of that knowledge - or engine work - could be reused on the (more successful) handheld side.

Nintendo launched Project Indy. Project Indy had two goals. One, standardize the handheld GPU platform with the TV platform, or as Iwata put it "absorb the Wii U architecture". The second was to build a new concept for the Next Handheld, the successor to the 3DS.

On the concept side, Nintendo tried a bunch of Wild Nintendo Shit. One of the feature they played with involved casting from the handheld to the TV...

On the chip side, they began working on "Decaf". Decaf took the Wii U's "Latte" GPU, stripped out all the legacy support, and made it much smaller. The idea being that the Wii U would run Latte, the handheld would run Decaf, and the Wii U's successor would run a big version of Decaf (Half Caf?). Indy would combine Decaf with ARM CPUs, because those were/are the standard for low power, high performance mobile devices. That combined chip was Mont Blanc, which would also include things like memory and IO controllers and all the other bells and whistles that a custom SOC could deliver.

While Nintendo worked on Mont Blanc with ST, the concept for Indy was evolving. "Casting" had latency problems, but "docking" was promising. Somewhere in 2014, docking wasn't just a feature, it became the core concept, and the device was given a name - The Switch. The gigaleak has a document for what a Mont Blanc based Switch would look like, dated pretty late in 2014, in fact.

But at the point at which The Switch wasn't just a 3DS successor but also a Wii U successor, Nintendo actually didn't need Decaf. The platforms would be unified not by a shared architecture, but by literally being the same device. If they dropped Decaf, they'd lose their historical investment, but on the other hand, they had designed Decaf to be a mini Wii U in performance, and now it needed to beat the Wii U to be its successor.

Nintendo was already familiar with the Tegra line, and in 2014, the security team at Nintendo did an analysis of both the Mont Blanc design and the (unreleased) Tegra X1 design for the Switch. TX1 actually had some problems in Nintendo's view, and they were concerned about possible security holes leading to piracy. Nvidia did some fairly last minute overhauls of the Tegra Security Module to pass Nintendo's security review - apparently not even being sure they'd get the contract.*

While it's not documented in the Gigaleak why Nintendo went with Tegra X1 over Mont Blanc I think the answers are pretty obvious. Once Indy became the successor to not just the 3DS but the Wii U, Mont Blanc couldn't cut it. It wasn't fast enough, but more important, it wasn't ready. Tegra X1s were already in production at the end of 2014, but Mont Blanc wasn't even ready to tape out.

Nvidia was also hungry for the contract. Not only did Nvidia redesign the TSM for Nintendo before the contract was signed, they built NVN before the contract was signed. Nintendo had 15+ years of software development invested in the Wii U's GPU they had to toss, but Nvidia was willing to put their extensive driver experience on their own hardware up for Nintendo's use and put their money where they mouth was.

There are documents from December of 2014 still talking about a Mont Blanc based Switch, but I suspect in honesty that the deal with Nvidia was de facto done at that point, even if on paper ST was still in the game. 3 months later, in March, Nvidia and Nintendo had not only signed the contract, they had built a functional Switch prototype. Nintendo shifted every Wii U game that wasn't announced over to the Switch, and set a release target of October 2016. They were booking it.

At some point after the Switch's release, some folks in the fan community put what they new about Project Indy together and started to think of it as a separate console built on Mont Blanc. But Indy is the Switch, they were always the same project, and Mont Blanc is mostly interesting not for what it could have been but for what it never was.

We have these rumors of a cancelled Pro, and 11 dev kits and spice. Mont Blanc had devkits - but they were Wii U's wired up to off the shelf ARM chips. And again, these were devkits for Indy, a device we got, but in a vastly different internal design.

And when imagining a cancelled T239, or a T239 repurposed by Nvidia, consider how ST didn't try to salvage 2 years of development work on Mont Blanc by repurposing a product that essentially had no customers except Nintendo or Nintendo's competitors.




* Side note, this is quite hilarious for two reasons. One, none of their other potential customers really needed the Trusted Computing aspects that Nintendo did, and two, the TSM would be the gateway that would allow the Switch to be jailbroken in the first place.
Thanks for writing this up. I was aware of some of it, but it's good to have the whole story.

There are two things that stood out when I read it:
  1. Nintendo's coffee-themed names for components continue to be the pinnacle of codenaming. "Decaf" for a cut-down "Latte"? chef's kiss
  2. Nvidia developed an entire custom graphics API and driver stack for Nintendo before they even signed. I think people often underestimate the importance of Nintendo to Nvidia. Selling the TX1 to Nintendo has probably brought in more revenue for them than any other deal they've ever signed. Selling T239 to them could even beat that.
 
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Nintendo and Nvidia have to redesign Drake if fabricating Drake using a process node newer than Samsung's 8N process node since EUV lithography is used in process nodes newer than Samsung's 8N process node. (Samsung's 8N process node uses DUV lithography.)
There is a slim chance that a full redesign is not needed to move away from Samsung. Nvidia's Ampere data center GPUs are produced using TSMC's N7 process. These don't have RT cores but it shows that GPU portion of Drake can be fabricated on a better process. It is also relatively cheap to port an N7 design to the superior N6 process as Sony has done for the PS5.

The problem remains that the rest of the SOC would still need to be ported instead of reusing Orin. Perhaps they could pull this off by reusing ARM CPU IP and outsourcing the remainder it doesn't involve Nvidia's sensitive GPU IP?
 
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And frankly I can see his point, Nintendo hasn't earned that assumed trust, yet...
I see why people feel that way. The industry was moving to backwards compatibility by default and Nintendo released the Switch, and killed the Virtual Console. But before the Switch Nintendo had an unbroken chain of backwards compatibility that ran for 26 years, from the GameBoy to the New 3DS. And of course the 11 years of GameCube to Wii U. Making a device that unified those two lines might have been doable, but I'm not sure anyone would have bought it.
 
i think users on the PS ecosystem was also fairly comfortable their purchases on PS4 will carry over in some way to the PS5 and iirc BC was already known.
I think it's a fair comment to say Nintendo fans are less certain about this with Nintendo, while we suspect that will be the case, we still have respected devs like MVG saying its too difficult or expensive etc. etc.

And frankly I can see his point, Nintendo hasn't earned that assumed trust, yet...
I'm honestly kind of amused by the fact that there seems to be lots of people who don't expect backwards compatibility from Nintendo, despite their long history of it, but in any case I don't think BC really plays into it. People buy games to play now, not to sit on a shelf in the hope that a backwards compatible successor comes along.

As another example, I can ironically take the first game in the Last of Us series. Sony's E3 show on 10th of June 2013 was the first time they showed off PS4 hardware, as well as a showcase of new games for it, with zero backwards compatibility in sight. On the 14th of June 2013 (not even a week later this time!) The Last Of Us launched on PS3, and also set sales records.

The most important thing to take from this is that The Last of Us Part III will release on PS5 exactly a week after Sony's major PS6 showcase. Also, hardware announcements don't seem to have any negative impact on software sales.
 
Nvidia was also hungry for the contract. Not only did Nvidia redesign the TSM for Nintendo before the contract was signed, they built NVN before the contract was signed. Nintendo had 15+ years of software development invested in the Wii U's GPU they had to toss, but Nvidia was willing to put their extensive driver experience on their own hardware up for Nintendo's use and put their money where they mouth was.
What a story! And I'm curious whether this specific piece comes from the gigaleak or from reports?
 
Thanks for writing this up. I was aware of some of it, but it's good to have the whole story.

There are two things that stood out when I read it:
  1. Nintendo's coffee-themed names for components continue to be the pinnacle of codenaming. "Decaf" for a cut-down "Latte"? chef's kiss
Truly my favorite thing about the whole story. There is a kind of interesting alternate reality where Nintendo alternates between a Big TV console, and then a shrunk down version for handhelds that run the same games, then back to the TV, using Decaf as a base. And the thing we miss out on most from that reality, is what the hell would they call Decaf's follow up?

  1. Nvidia developed an entire custom graphics API and driver stack for Nintendo before they even signed. I think people often underestimate the importance of Nintendo to Nvidia. Selling the TX1 to Nintendo has probably brought in more revenue for them than any other deal they've ever signed. Selling T239 to them could even beat that.
Last numbers I saw Geforce Now + Switch makes Nvidia basically the same amount of money as Xbox + Playstation makes AMD. Long term, Nintendo's SOC options are expanding as the mobile GPU space heats up, but Nvidia's other options for even the mini-console market are pretty limited without an x86 CPU
 
It was called "Mont Blanc" and it was in development with a partner company called STMicroelectronics (no space). ST is a giant Dutch company, and they actually manufacture the Amiibo NFC stack for the Switch.

Mont Blanc went through a couple designs, and the final version before it was scrapped was a quad core ARM 53 CPU cluster combined with a custom "Decaf" GPU. "Decaf" was, essentially, the Wii U's "Latte" GPU stripped of all its Wii/GameCube backwards compatible circuitry, and then cut in half. Mont Blanc's performance target was actually not only lower than the Switch, but lower than the Wii U. Lemme give you some context.

Iwata wanted to unify handheld and TV console software development. It was too expensive. Mobile GPUs were in their infancy, and the 3DS had a totally different GPU from the DS. Basically Nintendo had to start over from scratch with each new mobile console. But on the TV side, they had been developing their GPU platform all the way back to the N64. Nintendo had top tier 3D software engineers squeezing all this power out of a design they knew like the back of their hand, and none of that knowledge - or engine work - could be reused on the (more successful) handheld side.

Nintendo launched Project Indy. Project Indy had two goals. One, standardize the handheld GPU platform with the TV platform, or as Iwata put it "absorb the Wii U architecture". The second was to build a new concept for the Next Handheld, the successor to the 3DS.

On the concept side, Nintendo tried a bunch of Wild Nintendo Shit. One of the feature they played with involved casting from the handheld to the TV...

On the chip side, they began working on "Decaf". Decaf took the Wii U's "Latte" GPU, stripped out all the legacy support, and made it much smaller. The idea being that the Wii U would run Latte, the handheld would run Decaf, and the Wii U's successor would run a big version of Decaf (Half Caf?). Indy would combine Decaf with ARM CPUs, because those were/are the standard for low power, high performance mobile devices. That combined chip was Mont Blanc, which would also include things like memory and IO controllers and all the other bells and whistles that a custom SOC could deliver.

While Nintendo worked on Mont Blanc with ST, the concept for Indy was evolving. "Casting" had latency problems, but "docking" was promising. Somewhere in 2014, docking wasn't just a feature, it became the core concept, and the device was given a name - The Switch. The gigaleak has a document for what a Mont Blanc based Switch would look like, dated pretty late in 2014, in fact.

But at the point at which The Switch wasn't just a 3DS successor but also a Wii U successor, Nintendo actually didn't need Decaf. The platforms would be unified not by a shared architecture, but by literally being the same device. If they dropped Decaf, they'd lose their historical investment, but on the other hand, they had designed Decaf to be a mini Wii U in performance, and now it needed to beat the Wii U to be its successor.

Nintendo was already familiar with the Tegra line, and in 2014, the security team at Nintendo did an analysis of both the Mont Blanc design and the (unreleased) Tegra X1 design for the Switch. TX1 actually had some problems in Nintendo's view, and they were concerned about possible security holes leading to piracy. Nvidia did some fairly last minute overhauls of the Tegra Security Module to pass Nintendo's security review - apparently not even being sure they'd get the contract.*

While it's not documented in the Gigaleak why Nintendo went with Tegra X1 over Mont Blanc I think the answers are pretty obvious. Once Indy became the successor to not just the 3DS but the Wii U, Mont Blanc couldn't cut it. It wasn't fast enough, but more important, it wasn't ready. Tegra X1s were already in production at the end of 2014, but Mont Blanc wasn't even ready to tape out.

Nvidia was also hungry for the contract. Not only did Nvidia redesign the TSM for Nintendo before the contract was signed, they built NVN before the contract was signed. Nintendo had 15+ years of software development invested in the Wii U's GPU they had to toss, but Nvidia was willing to put their extensive driver experience on their own hardware up for Nintendo's use and put their money where they mouth was.

There are documents from December of 2014 still talking about a Mont Blanc based Switch, but I suspect in honesty that the deal with Nvidia was de facto done at that point, even if on paper ST was still in the game. 3 months later, in March, Nvidia and Nintendo had not only signed the contract, they had built a functional Switch prototype. Nintendo shifted every Wii U game that wasn't announced over to the Switch, and set a release target of October 2016. They were booking it.

At some point after the Switch's release, some folks in the fan community put what they new about Project Indy together and started to think of it as a separate console built on Mont Blanc. But Indy is the Switch, they were always the same project, and Mont Blanc is mostly interesting not for what it could have been but for what it never was.

We have these rumors of a cancelled Pro, and 11 dev kits and spice. Mont Blanc had devkits - but they were Wii U's wired up to off the shelf ARM chips. And again, these were devkits for Indy, a device we got, but in a vastly different internal design.

And when imagining a cancelled T239, or a T239 repurposed by Nvidia, consider how ST didn't try to salvage 2 years of development work on Mont Blanc by repurposing a product that essentially had no customers except Nintendo or Nintendo's competitors.




* Side note, this is quite hilarious for two reasons. One, none of their other potential customers really needed the Trusted Computing aspects that Nintendo did, and two, the TSM would be the gateway that would allow the Switch to be jailbroken in the first place.
Thank you for this very detailed response.
 
The shader concern for Switch 2 has probably blown up just because like 90% of AAA PC games are awful now because of shader compilation so it has made people more aware of shader compilation.

If there was an easy solution to transition shader compilations from one device to another, it makes people wonder why there hasn't been a generalized toolset made to do that for individual hardware configs.
 
The shader concern for Switch 2 has probably blown up just because like 90% of AAA PC games are awful now because of shader compilation so it has made people more aware of shader compilation.
There is a legitimate technical challenge to solve, but I think people overestimate its difficulty, and conflate it with the much more performance-intensive problem of general-purpose emulation. Also, coming back to my post from earlier, I think people falsely assume that the burden to implement it falls entirely on Nintendo. Nvidia have all the expertise necessary to implement a BC solution as seamless as Sony and Microsoft's, and as we've seen they've been willing in the past to engage in large software projects for Nintendo before they even signed. I can't imagine that the same Nvidia would then turn around and tell Nintendo that they're on their own when it comes to BC for their next console.
 
Projecting the Switch to have big sales in 2022 after its monster 2020 and 2021 was optimistic

Projecting massive HW sales in 2023 after a declining 2022 would be closer to delusional and would definitely be a sign of a new console coming soon.
Launch hardware is pretty supply limited too. If they said something like 14 million for the year, would it be super obvious to everyone if 3-5 million were secretly supposed to be Redacteds versus just being optimistic again?
 
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What a story! And I'm curious whether this specific piece comes from the gigaleak or from reports?
An early leak about the NX was from a site called semiaccurate who said that Nvidia told the Tegra division to "get a win or else". Semiaccurate had a reputation of being ran by an Nvidia hater, but there were details about the nx he got right like the tx1 being used. And we learned that the Switch was responsible for pretty much all of the Tegra division's revenue. So they weren't all that valuable of a department at the time
 
I really hope Nintendo go ahead and talks about the next console, because at this point nothing is going to affect the sales of TOTK which is so far selling off the hype from the masterpiece of the first game
 
What a story! And I'm curious whether this specific piece comes from the gigaleak or from reports?
@LiC actually clued me in to it. Gigaleak + Lapsus$ hack + inference.

Gigaleak shows that Nintendo was still looking at Mont Blanc in December of 2014, but the Lapsus$ hack has 2014 dates all over NVN. There are emails referring to Nvidia "software" demos during 2014 that were almost certainly NVN or some primitive version thereof. So at minimum, Nvidia was working on NVN before there were signatures on the deal.

Nintendo started Project Indy to reuse their software investment everywhere, but Tegra meant actually dumping that software investment. Getting NVN out of Nvidia was probably a hard requirement, and unlike hardware, Nvidia probably needed to prove they could deliver before the contract got signed.

On the Nvidia side, they were highly motivated because Project Athena was cratering at the same time. That's an interesting story that I won't repeat here, but the long and the short of it was that Nvidia had lined up Google to be their long term Tegra customer, but by the end of 2014 it was pretty clear that it wasn't going to work out.
 
@LiC actually clued me in to it. Gigaleak + Lapsus$ hack + inference.

Gigaleak shows that Nintendo was still looking at Mont Blanc in December of 2014, but the Lapsus$ hack has 2014 dates all over NVN. There are emails referring to Nvidia "software" demos during 2014 that were almost certainly NVN or some primitive version thereof. So at minimum, Nvidia was working on NVN before there were signatures on the deal.

Nintendo started Project Indy to reuse their software investment everywhere, but Tegra meant actually dumping that software investment. Getting NVN out of Nvidia was probably a hard requirement, and unlike hardware, Nvidia probably needed to prove they could deliver before the contract got signed.

On the Nvidia side, they were highly motivated because Project Athena was cratering at the same time. That's an interesting story that I won't repeat here, but the long and the short of it was that Nvidia had lined up Google to be their long term Tegra customer, but by the end of 2014 it was pretty clear that it wasn't going to work out.
the interesting thing about this is that it would be a perfect time for Nintendo or Nvidia to bring up possible BC. it seems like early Indy might not have been backwards compatible with Wii U or 3DS despite the ARM cpu and Decaf gpu. so while their tools can move forward with changes, their games can't. Nvidia could use this as leverage with a "future hardware can run old games" pitch
 
He doesn't have a Youtube channel.

He's known quite a few things, he knew Witcher 3 was coming over a year before it released, he knew about when it would release too. His personal job does put him industry adjacent... I'm really not going to go over a huge list to defend him, because he hasn't claimed anything at all here, he's saying the same thing everyone else is saying, you guys are the ones treating him like he is a secret vault.

I haven’t followed the thread, or the forum in general, too closely then. I was actually surprised about some users asking.

I’m alone… and I know nothing and love making belly dance

I hope you don’t, but I don't know if you felt my mesage like an attack, probably the wording wasn’t the best, so I am sorry.
 
It ties into the rumor that a Switch Pro with PS4 Pro levels of performance was planned for late 2022 or early 2023 but has been canceled. Drake happens to have PS4 Pro levels of performance. So if that information/rumor is true, there wouldn't be two different SOC's offering PS4 Pro levels of performance being designed for Nintendo, meaning it would have been using Drake but has been canceled.
The problem with that rumor is that we know it isn't true. Between 2020 and March 2022, we know that Nvidia was working on Tegra 239 for "Switch 2", we know this work continued via the Linux kernel updates and LinkedIn profiles, that show T239 engineer samples exist from April 2022, and final silicon showed up in August 2022, Linux updates continue publically from September 5th and continue into winter months.

T239 was not canceled, it is actually ready for mass production. Thraktor makes a very compelling case that Switch Pro was possibly the OLED model, which was originally reported by Nate and even myself (though I'm not an insider, I did hear about the project from early 2017) that they were shrinking TX1 and increasing clocks, we know those clocks exist, but go unused, and we know OLED was modified at cost to output 4K resolution, but also went unused.

Digital Foundry didn't give a timeline with the canceled project, but sounded like it happened a while ago.
 
The shader concern for Switch 2 has probably blown up just because like 90% of AAA PC games are awful now because of shader compilation so it has made people more aware of shader compilation.

If there was an easy solution to transition shader compilations from one device to another, it makes people wonder why there hasn't been a generalized toolset made to do that for individual hardware configs.
It is specifically the generalization that is the source of the performance issues. Nintendo neither needs nor wants a general purpose translator, because that would be too slow. What they need is a way to take Maxwell shaders and run them on an Ampere GPU. On a console, you can take shortcuts by using a specialized solution.

PC is always going to be its own beast in terms of shaders, because the software needs to be mostly hardware agnostic.
 
We have these rumors of a cancelled Pro, and 11 dev kits and spice. Mont Blanc had devkits - but they were Wii U's wired up to off the shelf ARM chips. And again, these were devkits for Indy, a device we got, but in a vastly different internal design.
I wouldn't call them devkits. Nobody outside of Nintendo and their vendor(s) had any information or access to MontBlanc development, and Nintendo wasn't close to making games for it (save for experiments such as cutting down Mario Kart 8 to run on the less powerful hardware).

Nvidia developed an entire custom graphics API and driver stack for Nintendo before they even signed. I think people often underestimate the importance of Nintendo to Nvidia. Selling the TX1 to Nintendo has probably brought in more revenue for them than any other deal they've ever signed. Selling T239 to them could even beat that.
They started working on it in October 2014, so it was presumably part of the pitch. Although it seems like it's probably normal to have a (potentially long) pre-signing period of development and collaboration on Nintendo's projects. An alpha version was delivered in June 2015 and the final API was planned for the last few months of 2015, so it's not like it was done in 2014, though.

the interesting thing about this is that it would be a perfect time for Nintendo or Nvidia to bring up possible BC. it seems like early Indy might not have been backwards compatible with Wii U or 3DS despite the ARM cpu and Decaf gpu. so while their tools can move forward with changes, their games can't. Nvidia could use this as leverage with a "future hardware can run old games" pitch
It was definitely backwards compatible with the 3DS, although I have no idea how dual screen gameplay was supposed to work with the stupid oval screen form factor, or if those were two concepts at different points in time. And the plan was for it to play cut-down Wii U games in some form too, either by getting its own ports or possibly through some kind of patch.

It was weird. I'm glad it died. The Wii U's failure was absolutely worth it to get the Switch and avoid the nonsense that was originally being considered.
 
Knowing Nintendo they’ll probably say
“What new hardware?” At the investor thing

Then flat out announce it the week after


I’m guessing that Indy stuff is where SMD got on the train for AMD switch?
 
Knowing Nintendo they’ll probably say
“What new hardware?” At the investor thing

Then flat out announce it the week after


I’m guessing that Indy stuff is where SMD got on the train for AMD switch?
I mean, yeah. Nintendo fans here care more about investor meetings than Nintendo does. They're required by law to hold them. They do not plan their business or time announcements around them.

Nobody knew about the Indy until the gigaleak revealed a bunch of primary source information about it, and the NX's announcement in March 2015 and all the building speculation about it came after the Indy project was defunct. So I don't think it's fair to say that it had any influence on NX rumors (especially since SMD didn't have any legitimate sources for his AMD claims as far as I know) -- with the one notable exception being the oval LCD patent, which of course was just another example in the long line of Nintendo patents we see specifically because it's an idea they've decided not to use.
 
Nobody knew about the Indy until the gigaleak revealed a bunch of primary source information about it. The NX's announcement in March 2015 and all the building speculation about it came after the Indy project was defunct, so I don't think it's fair to say that it had any influence on NX rumors (especially since SMD didn't have any legitimate sources for his AMD claims as far as I know) -- with the one notable exception being the oval LDC patent, which of course was just another example in the long line of Nintendo patents we see specifically because it's an idea they've decided not to use.
It's ironic that people still look to publicly available patents as hints of what could come. If the patent is public... it means Nintendo is not going to use it for an upcoming product.
 
It's ironic that people still look to publicly available patents as hints of what could come. If the patent is public... it means Nintendo is not going to use it for an upcoming product.
Yeah, there have been slip-ups in the past, but they've all been extremely minor. Things like label positioning on the N64 NSO controller being in a patent before reveal.
 
Respectfully, I am going to assume that this is a bit of naming confusion? By "Drake" I assume you mean the Nintendo console, not the Nvidia chip. We've used the name to mean both interchangeably around here for a while and it's super confusing. There is a reason I leapt on REDACTED so fast, to help clear that up.

The link you refer to does not say Drake-the-Chip is cancelled, which is what I think @bellydrum - and me, on first read - got from your post, and I assume not what you intended. I assume you meant Drake-the-Console, which I refer to as REDACTED.

For the Switch project, Nintendo worked with a company to design an SOC, made devkits, shifted to a more powerful design afterward, cancelled the SOC, moved to a different SOC, and shipped the new hardware just a couple years later, and we never heard about it till the Gigaleak. The idea that REDACTED did the same is, at least, not unprecedented. It doesn't mean Drake the chip - or even REDACTED/Drake-the-console was cancelled.

I conflated both the chip and the console, yes, and thought it would be obvious to the reader. The former appears tailored for the latter even if Nvidia will possibly use t239 in another product.
To be clear on the reason I felt compelled to express myself on the fact that Drake switch hadn't been cancelled: the bizarre rules of this topic do not allow me to point as specific posts so it will feel like subposting which I dislike, and those posts have likely been erased anyway.

Late in 2022, DF mentioned a cancelled hardware and speculated on Nintendo's new console releasing disappointingly late, too late to make sense unless the console would likely be Drake-less. A passenger hopped on that cancellation train and, as I distinctly remember, specified that they were talking about the "late 2022, early 2023" machine they had referred to in the past. Before going on the aforementioned erasing spree for reasons which science is still debating.

Saying that this supposedly cancelled machine wasn't the Drake switch would take a level of bad faith which I'm not ready to accuse anyone of. Especially as later, it was confirmed by the same entity that this cancelled machine had a "ps4pro range of performance". Their word, not mine, and the link is literally posted on the previous page.
Unless we're willing to believe that Nvidia is or was concomitantly developing 2 chips of equivalent performance for Nintendo, this is obviously referring to the Drake switch everyone and their dog has been talking about for nearly 13 months.

I personally do not believe that this console was cancelled and I detailed the reason why.
 
I conflated both the chip and the console, yes, and thought it would be obvious to the reader. The former appears tailored for the latter even if Nvidia will possibly use t239 in another product.
To be clear on the reason I felt compelled to express myself on the fact that Drake switch hadn't been cancelled: the bizarre rules of this topic do not allow me to point as specific posts so it will feel like subposting which I dislike, and those posts have likely been erased anyway.

Late in 2022, DF mentioned a cancelled hardware and speculated on Nintendo's new console releasing disappointingly late, too late to make sense unless the console would likely be Drake-less. A passenger hopped on that cancellation train and, as I distinctly remember, specified that they were talking about the "late 2022, early 2023" machine they had referred to in the past. Before going on the aforementioned erasing spree for reasons which science is still debating.

Saying that this supposedly cancelled machine wasn't the Drake switch would take a level of bad faith which I'm not ready to accuse anyone of. Especially as later, it was confirmed by the same entity that this cancelled machine had a "ps4pro range of performance". Their word, not mine, and the link is literally posted on the previous page.
Unless we're willing to believe that Nvidia is or was concomitantly developing 2 chips of equivalent performance for Nintendo, this is obviously referring to the Drake switch everyone and their dog has been talking about for nearly 13 months.

I personally do not believe that this console was cancelled and I detailed the reason why.
walterwhitejessepinkmandinerscene.gif
 
Yeah, there have been slip-ups in the past, but they've all been extremely minor. Things like label positioning on the N64 NSO controller being in a patent before reveal.
That was an FCC filing. Minor difference but still led to discussion due to the finding and limited details. Patents tend to lead to wild assumptions and have done their rounds this yr for no reason.
 
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If no announcement is made by the end of July, the possibility of a launch in 2023 will be eliminated.
More like no announcement by September, IMO. Even September would probably be cutting it close, especially if Redacted is as big of a leap forward as we've been led to believe and especially if it launches closer to Black Friday than to Christmas. Even in August, though, I think they'd still have enough time to rev up the Redacted Hype Cycle and get people on board with whatever they have on offer for it.

Ultimately, though, we'll just have to see. My money's on Early 2024, personally (if T239 really was cancelled, then probably not until late 2024 at earliest, but there's no hard evidence suggesting that's the case).
 
Nvidia highly valuing their partnership with Nintendo is as good as any technical reason for getting the new chip onto 4N/the best node that is economically viable. Switch 2 coming with the best efficiency/performance will pay dividends to both companies in the long term.
 
I really hope Nintendo go ahead and talks about the next console, because at this point nothing is going to affect the sales of TOTK which is so far selling off the hype from the masterpiece of the first game

Maybe a ‘working on new hardware’ comment in the financials but other than that, there’s almost zero chance Nintendo talk about the new system before TotK releases.
 
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