To be clear/be on the same page, what you're describing is a concern that's more generalized than this specific instance of console hardware, yes? Not to imply anything regarding the state of support/library/launch of Drake specifically.
Yes, just trying to answer your question directly. But to riff a little bit/a lot...
I am very confident that Nintendo intended to launch a New Switch in fall of this year, that they contracted 3rd parties to build launch games for the device, and that those third parties had not received a change in the launch schedule of fall of last year. I think to look at the set of facts on the ground and come away with a radically different theory is at best an unconvincing interpretation of the data.
I have very
little confidence that I know Nintendo's plan now, what 3rd parties are currently being told, or the eventual launch timing of the device. I'm just shooting in the dark like everyone else who isn't an actual journalist or insider. The general assumption seems to be that Nintendo's plans have changed, which I think is probably true but even that is still guessing. Maybe they haven't at all!
I am modestly confident that
if Nintendo's plans have shifted, they are
not primarily driven by consumer demand for the Classic Switch. Nintendo was telling Devs that there as a 2022 launch date as recently as ~6 months ago. Have the sales of fiscal 2021 been so far beyond Nintendos expectation that they would change direction now? I don't buy it. I
do buy that if Nintendo is pushed to delay the revision, that the sales of the Current Switch make that decision much easier.
I
do believe that any number of hardware, software, or political issues could delay the device. I am mixed on the effect of the chip shortage being a driver - I think the writing was on the wall a while ago, and Nintendo was telling partners 6 months ago that they were on schedule. But it isn't inconceivable to me that Nintendo saw a chance of making it and didn't want to spook partners.
I am only
modestly confident that Drake is the revision. Occam's razor suggests it is, but I don't think folks who say "Drake looks like a successor, and I don't see how they cram that thing into a Switch case, perhaps there is a revision that is more modest out there and the two devices are being mixed up, like the OLED" are mad conspiracy theorists. It would neatly explain why Drake seems almost
untenably beefy, but again, I'm
modestly confident that it's just one device.
Modestly.
These are my prior assumptions when talking about The Next Nintendo Thingy. I realize this is a deep tangent from your original post, but I get frustrated when people confuse fact for analysis, and analysis for predictions.