StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (New Staff Post, Please read)

[SiG]

Of course every console wants to have some gimmick to sell it to consumers, but in this case I think they can do that on the software side.

Nintendo has always been about marrying the software with their hardware, so I’m definitely inclined to think they will have a new hardware feature to mix up the Switch line.

The bigger annoyance will be the amount of talk around the "concern" translation which will end up being different once we get the official translation.

“Dear concerned citizen…”

(Yet another “Half-Life 3 confirmed!” moment.)

 

[ILikeFeet]

This same dude said FSR 1.0 was comparable to DLSS. Also I’m only looking at the screens on my ipad, but both the FSR and DLSS images look really rough to me, a lot worse than I expect from DLSS.

embargo seems to be up tomorrow. Alex Battaliga should be covering it

 

[LiC]

I think there's a good chance Nintendo never makes a non-portable console again (notwithstanding the possibility of a completely non-traditional concept in the who-knows-when future). Why would they? The appeal of a stationary console is solely the processing power, but Nintendo has already bit the bullet, spending the hardware budget from a generational leap mostly on the portability aspect rather than maximum performance, and people love it. It's all gravy from here, especially as the competing stationary consoles start to hit diminishing returns on the eye test.

 

[BlueManifest]

gamexplain has a new video on YouTube titled “is Nintendo next console coming in 2024?” There goes 2022 and 2023

 

[chocolate_supra]

gamexplain has a new video on YouTube titled “is Nintendo next console coming in 2024?” There goes 2022 and 2023

oh god I thought you were joking but I checked and there it was

 

[Bosintang]

Future consoles not being hybrid would go against the evolution of chips, especially as we're hitting a wall in processing power due to intrinsic limitations of current architectures (I'm not referring to transistor density and quantum tunneling, there are workarounds for that). There are also other reasons why we're probably gonna start using less and less silicon whenever possible.
The ps6 or 7 will be hybrid before Nintendo makes a new home console. Don't expect much home only devices after 2035-40 in general.

 

[Hermii]

Pure opinion: a Switch revision/successor should release within the next yr or so (by end of 24). Sales are strong but tech is advancing and the Switch it starting to show its age. Don't wait for momentum to drop. Keep the energy on your side, launch an iterative successor sharing a single ecosystem & ride the wave. Keep 3rd party happy & target hardware that is capable of getting PS5/XS ports similar to what Switch was able to do with PS4/X1 games.

Also opinion: I think Nintendo introduces a new hardware concept for their next-gen hardware -- so the successor to the Switch family line -- and ditch the hybrid concept. Not something I want to see happen, but Nintendo does Nintendo and that seems like a very Nintendo thing to do.

Are you suggesting Nintendo would split up their dev teams again?

 

[NateDrake]

Are you suggesting Nintendo would split up their dev teams again?

No

 

[Look over there]

Future consoles not being hybrid would go against the evolution of chips, especially as we're hitting a wall in processing power due to intrinsic limitations of current architectures (I'm not referring to transistor density and quantum tunneling, there are workarounds for that). There are also other reasons why we're probably gonna start using less and less silicon whenever possible.
The ps6 or 7 will be hybrid before Nintendo makes a new home console. Don't expect much home only devices after 2035-40 in general.

Care to expand? (I'm legit curious)
The thing that lurks in my mind has been the frequency wall for silicon; diminishing returns (in terms of what you're getting from putting in the energy/power) seem to hit hard after 4 ghz or low 4 ghz, at least for the big x86 boys.

 

[Eclissi]

Are you suggesting Nintendo would split up their dev teams again?

The Switch Lite is not hybrid and Nintendo didn't split their teams.

Theoretically, the same could happen with a only home iterative successor of the Switch Family

 

[Pokemaniac]

No

A separate handheld and console with a shared library is what I hoped NX would be before it became clear it was a hybrid. While there would certainly be some advantages to that approach, the Switch's hybrid design has proven to have a certain elegance that I think ultimately makes it the superior option.

 

[Kenka]

The OLED Model and Switch Lite are targeting two very different market segments, but their sales may actually be intricately linked. Allow me to explain:

• From Oct. 2021 to Mar. 2022, 5.8 million units of Switch OLED were sold (see table below).
• 40% of OLED Model sold were replacement purchases or multiple-units-per-household purchases.
• This means that after the OLED release, in the first 6 months alone, 2.32 millions of existing Switch units entered the used market or became hand-me-downs ...
• ... while 3.7 million units of Switch Lite were sold from Apr. 2021 to Mar. 22 (table below).
• This seems to create a substantial impact on the Lite sales.
• In FY20-21, the sales ratio of hybrid vs. Lite was 70.48% to 29.52%.
• But in FY21-22, the sales ratio of hybrid+OLED vs. Lite became 83.95% to 16.05%.
• With the full 12 months of FY22-23, I suspect that the sales ratio of Lite may decline further, due to more people upgrading to the OLED Model and thus redistributing their used units.

Although not immediately apparent, the price sensitive/demand elastic market segment targeted by Lite is benefited from the introduction of the premium OLED Model, because now they have a better supply of used hybrids and also less demand competition for new Lites. A robust used market also benefits the enthusiasts, since they may easily offload their old units and upgrade without worries. As for Nintendo, they are not shedding any tears for the declining Lite sales but laughing to the bank for replacing a $200 sale with $350.

So there's little incentive to introduce an OLED Lite. The lower tier is already well served by Lites, used hybrid sales, and hand-me-downs. Adding a premium Lite would only create downward pricing pressure to the used market, potentially leading to a glut of used Lite with few takers, which in turn impacting the used price of hybrid model, causing consumer hesitation to upgrade from hybrid to OLED Model. Why would Nintendo sacrifice a $350 sale for a hypothetical $250 OLED Lite?

Yes! This is a very good analysis based on what we have at hand. Thanks a ton.

 

[Simba1]

OK, so Nate thinking about one platform with same software line but with 2 types of hardware, seperate handheld and home console hardware (that play same games). I mean if Nintendo released current Switch only home console and more powerful revision, it would be similar (just in case of Nate idea no hybrid hardware).
That doesnt looks so bad like two seperate platforms, but I still dont see point of doing that, and hardly Nintendo would want to do that just to have more power for home console, especially now with things like DLSS that will make huge difference for hybrid hardware.
Also, if Nintendo simple want more powerful hardware for TV play, they can simple release Switch 2/3 home console revision with more power and in same time having hybrid hardware option (same like Switch 2/3 Lite revision), so like part of same platform we could have Switch hybrid hardware, Switch TV only and Switch handheld only, all have different price points and all have pluses and minuses that fits different play styles and pockets,
something like that has more sense than completely ditching hybrid hardware.

Hybrid concept is probably best decision that Nintendo ever done, and Nintendo is now more cautious and not exactly same Nintendo that released Wii U, everything else than sticking with hybrid concept has less sense.
IMO hybrid concept is base thing that Nintendo will embrace, and they can add new concept/features on top of hybrid concept (VR, AR, who know what else...),
with of course different type of revisions.

 

[Armoured_Bear]

IMO hybrid is going nowhere, it's the USP and enormously successful. However, as a 99% docked gamer, I'd love for there to be a Switch-lite/Switch-hybrid/Switch-Home family of hardware, all playing the same games at different levels of graphical fidelity depending on available power/cooling limitations.

 

[Bosintang]

Care to expand? (I'm legit curious)
The thing that lurks in my mind has been the frequency wall for silicon; diminishing returns (in terms of what you're getting from putting in the energy/power) seem to hit hard after 4 ghz or low 4 ghz, at least for the big x86 boys.

PM

 

[Deleted member 2551]

OK, so Nate thinking about one platform with same software line but with 2 types of hardware, seperate handheld and home console hardware (that play same games). I mean if Nintendo released current Switch only home console and more powerful revision, it would be similar (just in case of Nate idea no hybrid hardware).
That doesnt looks so bad like two seperate platforms, but I still dont see point of doing that, and hardly Nintendo would want to do that just to have more power for home console, especially now with things like DLSS that will make huge difference for hybrid hardware.
Also, if Nintendo simple want more powerful hardware for TV play, they can simple release Switch 2/3 home console revision with more power and in same time having hybrid hardware option (same like Switch 2/3 Lite revision), so like part of same platform we could have Switch hybrid hardware, Switch TV only and Switch handheld only, all have different price points and all have pluses and minuses that fits different play styles and pockets,
something like that has more sense than completely ditching hybrid hardware.

Hybrid concept is probably best decision that Nintendo ever done, and Nintendo is now more cautious and not exactly same Nintendo that released Wii U, everything else than sticking with hybrid concept has less sense.
IMO hybrid concept is base thing that Nintendo will embrace, and they can add new concept/features on top of hybrid concept (VR, AR, who know what else...),
with of course different type of revisions.

He’s not saying the next hardware line is not hybrid.

 

[YolkFolk]

The next Nintendo gaming hardware could be a separate handheld and a home console sharing the same library.

Could we really see this concept and what would be the pros and cons?

The home console version could be sold for cheaper than a Series S and it would bring down the cost of the handheld as well since it wouldn’t need to be packaged with a dock and the internals would only need to contain lower clocked hardware.

You’d be able to share your games and saves across both home and handheld systems if you had both.

 

[Gianko]

As I said before, Switch tv only will be the next step. More power hungry. Current model to play on the go and tv model to play in 4 k the same cartridges. An hdd to download 4k textures.

 

[Mercury_Sagit]

Well I only see the merit of a docked only Drake if it consumes too much wattage at max clock to the point cooling solutions exceed the mobile form factor. That said Nintendo surveyed the player base early on and found that 50% of the respondents play in both modes. Therefore I'd still expect a hybrid SKU to be the flagship, while handheld and docked only SKUs are budget options.

 

[Simba1]

He’s not saying the next hardware line is not hybrid.

Offcourse he not talking about next hardware, I also wasnt talking about next hardware.

 

[ShaunSwitch]

What do you guys make of the weird temporary price drop from a few retailers?

A temporary one day sale or maybe they jumped the gun on a permanent price drop that's lined up soon for when the new model is announced?

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

What do you guys make of the weird temporary price drop from a few retailers?

A temporary one day sale or maybe they jumped the gun on a permanent price drop that's lined up soon for when the new model is announced?

Nah.

Retailers order a certain amount of units, if it’s on sale it’s probably due to a surplus of units that they had. Looking at it, the V2 model was on sale, not the Lite or the OLED model, you can gather from this that the V2 was in excess and only at those two major chains (Walmart and Amazon). Best Buy didn’t have this sale (when I checked). Sales like this are usually to increase spending and clear older stock as mentioned. I would also gleam from this that, the V2 will see even less amounts being shipped to retailers for this upcoming fiscal year, at least from those two major chains. So perhaps more OLED and less V2 is what you can expect to see as the tides turn in the favor of what consumers want to spend.

So this has nothing to do with any new model really.

Actually, retailers don’t know about products that weren’t announced yet really, they find out with the rest of us.

 

[Guaraná]

2.74M iirc

based on this and based on Nintendo's forecast of 21 million units of hardware sales for this FY, I think it's entirely possible that the new hardware can be released in March 2023.

With the chip shortages, I believe sales of the new Switch won't be over what we saw in 2017, 1.7 to 2.2 million is a realistic target.

That would give around 19 million for the current hardware and around 2 million for the new one released during the last month of the current fiscal year.

 

[Blue Monty]

based on this and based on Nintendo's forecast of 21 million units of hardware sales for this FY, I think it's entirely possible that the new hardware can be released in March 2023.

With the chip shortages, I believe sales of the new Switch won't be over what we saw in 2017, 1.7 to 2.2 million is a realistic target.

That would give around 19 million for the current hardware and around 2 million for the new one released during the last month of the current fiscal year.

Original Switch was heavily undershipped, Nintendo didn't expect it to sell so much during launch, I think if they could they would ship a lot more units than they did in 2017 even with the stock issues we are having.

 

[YolkFolk]

based on this and based on Nintendo's forecast of 21 million units of hardware sales for this FY, I think it's entirely possible that the new hardware can be released in March 2023.

With the chip shortages, I believe sales of the new Switch won't be over what we saw in 2017, 1.7 to 2.2 million is a realistic target.

That would give around 19 million for the current hardware and around 2 million for the new one released during the last month of the current fiscal year.

Talk of less sales because of chip shortages but aren’t Series S/X and PS5 actually selling in bigger numbers than their predecessors?

 

[Guaraná]

Talk of less sales because of chip shortages but aren’t Series S/X and PS5 actually selling in bigger numbers than their predecessors?

Not sure about SX, but the PS5 only sold more during its first year.

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

Original Switch was heavily undershipped, Nintendo didn't expect it to sell so much during launch, I think if they could they would ship a lot more units than they did in 2017 even with the stock issues we are having.

It was hard to find apparently for the entire first year of the system’s life. I don’t think it’s out of the question, even with the “easier” to produce console that would be Switch 2 vs say the series S, that it would be easy first year to get.

Especially now with the shortage making it difficult to make a ton, not necessarily difficult to make at all. It is a different scenario now than 2017 though which didn’t really have a semi shortage, let alone this bad.

Talk of less sales because of chip shortages but aren’t Series S/X and PS5 actually selling in bigger numbers than their predecessors?

Yes, but are still heavily struggling with the semi shortages.

 

[Aether]

Honest question, since thy did revise the sales target here and there, what keeps them from revising it in a few months up and then anouncing new hardware?

In regards to "lying" to investors... "market changed , progressed faster then expected, so we decided to move the launch up."?

 

[Skittzo]

Honest question, since thy did revise the sales target here and there, what keeps them from revising it in a few months up and then anouncing new hardware?

Literally nothing keeps them from doing that.

In regards to "lying" to investors... "market changed , progressed faster then expected, so we decided to move the launch up."?

They wouldn't have even lied, they'll say their current forecast was for currently announced products.

 

[Guaraná]

Talk of less sales because of chip shortages but aren’t Series S/X and PS5 actually selling in bigger numbers than their predecessors?

Yes, but are still heavily struggling with the semi shortages.

According to this graphic from InstallBase Forum, the PS4 sold 14.9 million in its first complete FY (2014) and the PS5 sold 11,5 in its first FY (2021)

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

According to this graphic from InstallBase Forum, the PS4 sold 14.9 million in its first complete FY (2014) and the PS5 sold 11,5 in its first FY (2021)

Yes, but that doesn’t mean that the PS5 isn’t hampered by shortages.

PS4 was also hampered pretty early on in its life. Though not to the same degree as the PS5

 

[Hosermess]

Nate hit us with the "Nintendo gonna Nintendo" lol

 

[Guaraná]

Yes, but that doesn’t mean that the PS5 isn’t hampered by shortages.

PS4 was also hampered pretty early on in its life. Though not to the same degree as the PS5

that was not my point.

my point was: Nintendo can launch a Switch 2 in March 2023 even if it sells less than the original one, just like Sony is doing with the PS5.

this is what I said:

based on this and based on Nintendo's forecast of 21 million units of hardware sales for this FY, I think it's entirely possible that the new hardware can be released in March 2023.

With the chip shortages, I believe sales of the new Switch won't be over what we saw in 2017, 1.7 to 2.2 million is a realistic target.

That would give around 19 million for the current hardware and around 2 million for the new one released during the last month of the current fiscal year.

 

[Skittzo]

Nate hit us with the "Nintendo gonna Nintendo" lol

Where did he say this?

 

[Hosermess]

Where did he say this?

Not something I want to see happen, but Nintendo does Nintendo and that seems like a very Nintendo thing to do.

And the non-hybrid is just opinion based on Nintendo managing to do something stupid after each success.

I just thought it was amusing. That's all.

 

[YolkFolk]

Pure opinion: a Switch revision/successor should release within the next yr or so (by end of 24). Sales are strong but tech is advancing and the Switch it starting to show its age. Don't wait for momentum to drop. Keep the energy on your side, launch an iterative successor sharing a single ecosystem & ride the wave. Keep 3rd party happy & target hardware that is capable of getting PS5/XS ports similar to what Switch was able to do with PS4/X1 games.

Also opinion: I think Nintendo introduces a new hardware concept for their next-gen hardware -- so the successor to the Switch family line -- and ditch the hybrid concept. Not something I want to see happen, but Nintendo does Nintendo and that seems like a very Nintendo thing to do.

Late 2024 is 2 and a half years away.

Switch would be nearly 8 years old by then.

Did you mean by late 2023?

 

[Skittzo]

I just thought it was amusing. That's all.

Ah yeah, that's kinda different from the typical "Nintendo gonna Nintendo". I tend to agree with Nate, Nintendo loves to experiment with their hardware and I have a hard time believing they'll never try something new that'll necessitate dropping the hybrid form factor, at least partially.

 

[RainTech]

This same dude said FSR 1.0 was comparable to DLSS. Also I’m only looking at the screens on my ipad, but both the FSR and DLSS images look really rough to me, a lot worse than I expect from DLSS.

Another comparison in video form. Looks mighty impressive. DLSS still as a bit of en edge but FSR 2.0 comes really close. This is what we had hoped for FSR 1.0.

 

[metonight]

Another comparison in video form. Looks mighty impressive. DLSS still as a bit of en edge but FSR 2.0 comes really close. This is what we had hoped for FSR 1.0.

Just in time for DLSS 3.0? /s (or maybe not?)

 

[Stinkmeiser45]

OLED sales ratio are getting pretty crazy in Japan. 100k out of 170k total in Japan the last 2 weeks.
Could explain why they think their profit margin will drop.

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

that was not my point.

my point was: Nintendo can launch a Switch 2 in March 2023 even if it sells less than the original one, just like Sony is doing with the PS5.

this is what I said:

I see, fair point.

OLED sales ratio are getting pretty crazy in Japan. 100k out of 170k total in Japan the last 2 weeks.
Could explain why they think their profit margin will drop.

For the record, the margins were going to drop with or without the OLED model.

 

[Gobias-Ind]

Assuming they're going to keep powering their hardware with whatever mobile SoC Nvidia cooks up for them they can always branch out from the hybrid form factor if they want to get weird with it and roll right back into the tablet at any point.

I'm sure most here want them to play it right down the middle, but I'm fond of Weirdtendo so my favorite scenario regarding the transition to Drake would be for them to put the new SoC into something weird (VR headset + TV dongle is my pet obsession). Release that in 2022/2023, price it at a premium level, give it a few "only possible on this hardware" exclusives/modes for traditional games, market the gimmick primarily but also emphasize that your favorite Switch games will look better than ever on your TV + it'll be future proof.

Then they can come back in 2024ish and announce Switch 2 - the Drake-powered next gen follow-up to their flagship hybrid tablet hardware - at or around the current price point. Here's your new Mario Kart, new 3D Mario, whatever they want to launch it with. Everyone who bought into the premium gimmicked out Drake system a couple years prior will make up a decent-sized install base to sell next-gen software to on day one. That buffer between "Switch VR" and Switch 2 will give them time to iron out Drake backwards compatibility issues (devs will have 2 years to get their games patched up for Switch 2 if needed).

In the worst case scenario where the gimmick flops and their internal data shows that nobody uses VR/AR/mind control and just keeps the thing plugged into the TV, they've probably sold like 10 million of these things at $450-$500 to enthusiasts who will still be able to use this machine to purchase any Switch software going forward (and will probably double up with a Switch 2 ASAP). They can do the Third Pillar thing while keeping that pillar entirely anchored to the main business and mix up their form factors in a way that might actively encourage multiple Switches per household and justify SKUs with higher price points.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

• In FY20-21, the sales ratio of hybrid vs. Lite was 70.48% to 29.52%.
• But in FY21-22, the sales ratio of hybrid+OLED vs. Lite became 83.95% to 16.05%.
• With the full 12 months of FY22-23, I suspect that the sales ratio of Lite may decline further, due to more people upgrading to the OLED Model and thus redistributing their used units.

Yeah, in the two quarters where OLED was an option, Lite is under 13%.

Talk of less sales because of chip shortages but aren’t Series S/X and PS5 actually selling in bigger numbers than their predecessors?

PS5 had an incredibly similar first year, but has fallen behind. Microsoft doesn't give numbers, so shrug.

 

[Onizuka]

Do we already have the Q&A section of the investor meeting with the president and the rest of the board of directors available? I am unable to find it this time, not even on twitter where it is usual to find questions and answers in threads created by David Gibson (if I remember correctly).

 

[Dakhil]

Do we already have the Q&A section of the investor meeting with the president and the rest of the board of directors available? I am unable to find it this time, not even on twitter where it is usual to find questions and answers in threads created by David Gibson (if I remember correctly).

No for the official translation of the Q&A session from Nintendo. I presume Nintendo will probably upload the official translation of the Q&A session at around 17 May 2022.

---

NVIDIA’s open-source drivers – random blog

nvgpu driver​

The nvgpu driver is used mainly/almost exclusively on NVIDIA Tegra SoCs. It's a GPU – as in accelerator block – only driver that doesn't handle display management – as that's handled by separate display hardware.

This driver is available at https://nv-tegra.nvidia.com/r/gitweb?p=linux-nvgpu.git;a=summary under MIT license, except a few files, which are licensed as GPLv2.

drivers/gpu/nvgpu/common/gsp/gsp_test.c
drivers/gpu/nvgpu/include/nvgpu/gsp/gsp_test.h
drivers/gpu/nvgpu/os/linux/debug_gsp.h
drivers/gpu/nvgpu/os/linux/module.c
drivers/gpu/nvgpu/os/linux/debug_gsp.c

For a Tegra integrated GPUs, nvgpu isn't a standalone driver: it relies on the nvmap and host1x drivers for memory mapping and communication respectively.

For dedicated GPUs, unified memory isn't supported with this driver. NVIDIA also doesn't redistribute a firmware set for this driver for dedicated GPUs.

nvgpu supports multiple operating systems. It runs on Linux, QNX and Nintendo Horizon. This drivers supports Functional Safety (FUSA) requirements for automotive use.

This driver doesn't require the usage of the GPU System Processor present on Turing and later, and supports earlier GPUs.

Supported iGPUs by this driver: GM20B, GP10B, GV11B, GA10B

Supported dGPUs by this driver: GP106, GV100, TU104, GA100

 

[Anatole]

One line is really killing me from that TechPowerUp article on FSR 2.0:

With FSR 1.0, AMD pioneered the addition of a sharpening filter to the upscaling pipeline. While this has been possible with NVIDIA sharpening through their Control Panel, too, it wasn't as nicely integrated.

…what do you think “pioneered” means, folks.

 

[Dakhil]

 

[Vash_the_Stampede]

Their net sales forecast being only 5% down and their profit forecast being a whopping 28% down actually tells me their operating expenses are planning to skyrocket. Which would line up with a hardware launch, no?

CC: @Thraktor

Just FYI I went through this.

1. They assume higher ASP on hardware from mix shift to OLED. They most likely also assume lower margins on hardware.

2. At the same time they assume less sales of software.

3. So you have more low-margin hardware revenue and less high-margin software revenue.

4. Me and the average analyst is close to JPY 600bn (vs. their guidance for 500m) due to currency tailwinds and the assumption that software sales will exceed their 210m unit forecast.

I’m at about 240m software units.

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

CC: @Thraktor

Just FYI I went through this.

1. They assume higher ASP on hardware from mix shift to OLED. They most likely also assume lower margins on hardware.

2. At the same time they assume less sales of software.

3. So you have more low-margin hardware revenue and less high-margin software revenue.

4. Me and the average analyst is close to JPY 600bn (vs. their guidance for 500m) due to currency tailwinds and the assumption that software sales will exceed their 210m unit forecast.

I’m at about 240m software units.

Nintendo and undershooting their software forecast, name a more iconic duo.

 

[prizna]

With all this talk about a new Switch being at least 2 years away, does that discount the idea of a new revision before then as well? or is this talk about a true next gen successor?