lemonfresh
#Team2024
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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (New Staff Post, Please read)
- Thread starter Dakhil
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Honestly, 4K TPHD would make me plenty happy, 4K60 would be amazing, and a full remake would be... bewildering.
Dark Cloud
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We’ll get leaks before the end of Friday next week. Patience.
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Moblin
Was Nintendo even at TGS?
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Yep. Apparently a large presence in the business area, too.
D
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There is massive evidence to suggest this, across the tech industry. It has a name (the Osborne effect) and every MBA and marketing executive involved in the launch of this product has done a case study on it.
Tech companies certainly believe it exists, or we wouldn’t have the term “paper launch.” Companies will announce products they aren’t ready to announce in order to suppress sales of a competitors product.
What matters is not if the effect exists - it’s if Nintendo believes it exists, and if they believe that it’s worth it anyway. Let’s say Nintendo believes there is a small, 10% chance of significantly lost sales. Okay, then there might be plenty of wins that would compensate for that risk.
So what the hell is the win? I don’t see any reason to announce in October/November unless you were dead set on a March launch, and thought 3 months of marketing was insufficient. I don’t see any argument for it over, say, launching in May or shortening the marketing cycle.
It might be low risk, but from the outside it seems no-reward
qwerp
Moblin
The chances of it being VR related is incredibly slim. If there even is a camera on the Switch 2, it would be for some insignificant AR thing.
Shoulder
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Welcome!
If there is a camera, I’d expect some more AR stuff. Pokémon Go, Mario Kart Home Circuit etc. type of stuff.
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For Console, huh?
A Spring release?
I mean I see the game eventually ending up on Switch. Though this update has more to do that they are still adding features and graphic updates so close to release and likely how bad the game is performing right now on consoles.
From prerelease streams CS2 seems to be running well enough on PC but no where near close to 60fps and sometimes Creators seem the game to have on really low settings.
Also they changed the targed specs to something way higher:
So yeah it seems quite obvious why they delay the console release.
darthdiablo
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You promise?
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Everything is based on the release date first, and the argument for a March launch would be the same as it was for the the Switch: March is when they're ready to position it at the start of a sustained release cadence of notable games.
And I think shortening the marketing cycle for a new generation to less than that of the OLED is a much more crazy move than (supposedly) sustaining lost holiday sales, something that never stopped Nintendo from announcing most new consoles in June of the year before launch. To say nothing of the oft-repeated and still valid points about production timing, leaks, partner communication, etc.
The chance of it being a hint is astronomical compared to the chance of it not being a hint imo, so for me it's not worth entertaining.
Yes it could come to Switch 2 I agree, but this is not indicative of it.
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That makes some sense. If they announced it soon after the meeting, there'd probably be some suspicion of insider trading.
D
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Huh? Are Nintendo creators or people in the know honing in on an announcement for November 6th?
Goodtwin
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Doesnt this look similar to the decline that Switch has been on? This year Q1 and Q2 will look a bit rosier thanks to Zelda TotK, but other wise I believe we have been seeing fairly significant quarterly declines year over year. I know this chart makes it look like the PS5 announcement killed PS4 sales, but we have ot remember that this was PS4 entering its seventh year on the market and hefty declines were almost a certainly regardless of the announcement. Holiday 2018 had already seen a 10% year over year decrease, even without a PS5 announcement the following year, its fair to assume another decrease, most likely even bigger than the year prior.
The huge decreases after PS5 released are to be expected for a variety of reasons. One being the supply of the PS4 dried up really quickly. In 2021, it became increasingly difficult to find a PS4 on store shelves. We also never saw PS4 hit budget pricing. It was still selling for $299 in 2021.
But lets assume that there is a significant impact on sales of the current system once the successor is announced, this only substantiates the theory that it makes sense for a short turn around from announcement to release. If Nintendo did want to target March 2024 release, then when do they make that initial announcement? Could Nintendo announce in January, showcase its games in February Direct and then release in March?
Foltzie
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This.
The only other factor I would include is if Drake manufacturing starts up in Q3/4 and Nintendo has concerns about controlling messaging if there are substantial supply chain leaks.
However, I no longer think this is a viable concern. If the Activision/Microsoft, Gamescom leaks, nVidia leaks, ect haven't moved the needle on Switch sales, why would supply chain leaks?
lemonfresh
#Team2024
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we have many hints now from the investor meeting to amiibo restocks to the switch 1 was also revealed around the same time (video reveal in the fall) Many rumblings happening
shakingwater.gif
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I mean it makes sense to me.
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None of those things (besides maybe the Amiibo thing?) is a hint towards anything.
darthdiablo
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No, nobody knows. It's speculation, to be clear.
Here's what we know however:
They're doing Mario Kart Switch bundles very early (not even holiday season yet)
November 7 is the investor meeting.
November 10 (I think) is when amiibo restock occurs.
They have removed Switch, WiiU, and 3DS branding altogether from back of the amiibos packagings for some reason.
Some oddities such as Pokemon games being rushed out rather than waiting to include last DLC
Now sprinkle this collection of tangible facts with other intangibles - rumors such as production rumored to begin in December, you can see where the speculation goes.
Doesn't mean anyone is in the know. It's still speculation regardless.
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Joy-Boy
Bob-omb
Earendil
Rattata
Atlus
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Yes, I’ve started my speculation a few pages back. I believe the camera is for mixed reality similar to what Quest 3 and Apple Vision Pro are doing. Allowing the Switch to have another way to Switch. Handheld, TV and Mixed Reality when you still want that big screen but either don’t have the space for it (like in Japan) or someone is using the big screen. The controllers are already built for this function and all developer games can support it without having to do anything special software wise.
Shoulder
Koopa
Apenknul
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It's probably asked many times here, but which launch titles would like to have on the new system?
I would love to see and begin with a whole new Mario Kart, MK8D is a 2017 port from a 2014 game. Sure, it got de BCP with returning tracks and characters, but I really want something fresh to begin with on the new system and series. I hope Ninty sees the series as a potential launch title, due to the sales of MK8D.
A 2nd game I'd love to see is Red Dead Redemption II, with RDR1 being on Switch, a port of the second game as a Launch title that is also a great open world game, would be very nice. Although I have played it on PC, I would buy it again, just to play as Arthur Morgan on the go. I really can imagine a vacation trip to the rocky's while playing this around a campfire.
When I think of Launch games, I think of Wii Sports and 1-2-Switch, to show the gimmicks, and that's great and all, but I barely see the gimmicks in the future being a thing. That's why I would love to have a Mario Party as a Launch title, instead of Wii Sports or 1-2-Switch. Mario Party is mostly enjoyed in a group, as is Wii Sports, but having the Mario brand in there would attract more people I assume. A title you can enjoi with others, while you can play Mario Kart in your alone time. (or even with a group aswell)
I really think it's time to bring a modern Street Fighter onto Nintendo platforms, and I would like to see Street Fighter 6 being on there. The game is already out on other consoles, in which I think porting it over to the NG would cause no problems. I don't like to see Street Fighter II again, tho.
As my last pick, I would like to see Phasmophobia being a launch title. It made me very curious why it was skipped in the consoles trailer, and wondered if it would be better to go on the NG instead. Phasmo is the only horror game I really like, and having it on the go would be very cool. Another title I would be playing with on vacation in a hotel or so.
I would love to see and begin with a whole new Mario Kart, MK8D is a 2017 port from a 2014 game. Sure, it got de BCP with returning tracks and characters, but I really want something fresh to begin with on the new system and series. I hope Ninty sees the series as a potential launch title, due to the sales of MK8D.
A 2nd game I'd love to see is Red Dead Redemption II, with RDR1 being on Switch, a port of the second game as a Launch title that is also a great open world game, would be very nice. Although I have played it on PC, I would buy it again, just to play as Arthur Morgan on the go. I really can imagine a vacation trip to the rocky's while playing this around a campfire.
When I think of Launch games, I think of Wii Sports and 1-2-Switch, to show the gimmicks, and that's great and all, but I barely see the gimmicks in the future being a thing. That's why I would love to have a Mario Party as a Launch title, instead of Wii Sports or 1-2-Switch. Mario Party is mostly enjoyed in a group, as is Wii Sports, but having the Mario brand in there would attract more people I assume. A title you can enjoi with others, while you can play Mario Kart in your alone time. (or even with a group aswell)
I really think it's time to bring a modern Street Fighter onto Nintendo platforms, and I would like to see Street Fighter 6 being on there. The game is already out on other consoles, in which I think porting it over to the NG would cause no problems. I don't like to see Street Fighter II again, tho.
As my last pick, I would like to see Phasmophobia being a launch title. It made me very curious why it was skipped in the consoles trailer, and wondered if it would be better to go on the NG instead. Phasmo is the only horror game I really like, and having it on the go would be very cool. Another title I would be playing with on vacation in a hotel or so.
darthdiablo
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We have a new thread for launch lineup discussion. Seems decent active in there too.
P4bl0
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Maybe it's AR. And the Switch 2 acts like a window. Or a front facing camera for Face ID I don't know,
Neoxon
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The bolded can be very easily explained: Nintendo & TPC want something on retail for the holiday season regarding Scarlet/Violet’s DLC & can’t wait for the 2nd half of the DLC to be done since they can’t be sure when it’ll be done in time to print the cartridges. Same applies to MK8D getting a version with most of the BCP on the cartridge (just take out TPC).
darthdiablo
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That doesn't seem convincing to me though.
This would mean the base Pokemon version, then the November 3 version (Pokemon + DLC, but not last DLC), and Nintendo is also going to release a 3rd version, Pokemon with all the DLC?
Seems very un-Nintendo-like to me but yes, I've seen that argument before. I'm just not convinced.
Neoxon
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Maybe they’ll do a reprint after the holidays, but retail releases have to be planned far enough in advance that something like DLC (which doesn’t need AS much lead time prior to release) wouldn’t line up timeline-wise.
The 2nd half of the Pokémon DLC & Wave 6 for MK8D’s DLC would need to have been done already to be included on their respective cartridges, which clearly isn’t the case right now. It’s like expecting a Day 1 patch to be included on the cartridge/disc of a new game.
OctoSplattack
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I think a November announcement where they acknowledge the console and state it will release next fiscal year is possible, if only because it feels like Nintendo is low-balling their Switch hardware targets a bit more than usual. The lack of adjustment after TOTK did so well opens the door to them factoring in the sales drop that would occur in spite of SMBW once they announce new hardware. Getting the holiday bundles out earlier than usual also feels a bit odd.
But I wouldn't be surprised whatsoever if it doesn't happen and we're waiting until next year for anything official. November is kinda just hopeful thinking.
But I wouldn't be surprised whatsoever if it doesn't happen and we're waiting until next year for anything official. November is kinda just hopeful thinking.
D
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Hopefully, no one takes this seriously. … yet
Apenknul
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Ah, forgive me. It's been late for me, and sometimes I overlook (is that the word I'm looking for?) a certain thread. Thanks anyways!
Mr Swine
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Looks fantastic on my 11” iPad Pro, would be happy if Switch 2 games in undocked mode looks that good on an 8” screen
Hosermess
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He doesn't have to. Nash Weedle has already promised to do it by the end of the week (if no one else beats them to it).
Neoxon
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At most, it could just be a generic intention to release new hardware within the next fiscal year that’s talked about to investors. I doubt it’ll be anything substantial like seeing the actual system, that kind of reveal will probably be in March.I think a November announcement where they acknowledge the console and state it will release next fiscal year is possible, if only because it feels like Nintendo is low-balling their Switch hardware targets a bit more than usual. The lack of adjustment after TOTK did so well opens the door to them factoring in the sales drop that would occur in spite of SMBW once they announce new hardware. Getting the holiday bundles out earlier than usual also feels a bit odd.
But I wouldn't be surprised whatsoever if it doesn't happen and we're waiting until next year for anything official. November is kinda just hopeful thinking.
darthdiablo
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So you're also acknowledging a potential November announcement.
To be clear, "announcement" isn't the same thing as "reveal". We've been talking about announcement, not reveal. Two different things.
OctoSplattack
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Yeah, even if they are aiming for a March release, which I kinda doubt, I'm not sure if they'd go as far as actually revealing the console before the holidays are over. I've always been of the mindset that announcement and reveal will be two separate events, with the former being the usual heads-up to investors. Reveal could be its own little video or perhaps even part of the whole "launch year lineup" blowout, depending on how they want to pace things out for marketing.
Thraktor
"[✄]. [✄]. [✄]. [✄]." -Microsoft
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I don't doubt that the early announcement of new hardware typically suppresses sales of previous hardware to some degree, I wouldn't call the Osborne effect something that has "massive evidence" to support it, or to quantify the extent of the effect. Mostly because it's literally impossible to do so, unless we can jump between two otherwise identical universes that differ only in the date that a particular product is announced. Most literature or examples I can find offer little more than jumping from correlation to causation, considering few other possible factors for drops in sales, including the obvious reverse causal link; that new products are prepared and announced precisely because a drop in sales is expected.
Most glaring of these is the case of Osborne Computer Corporation themselves, in what I'm calling the "Osborne Effect Effect" where the name of a phenomenon isn't actually an example of the phenomenon. The story goes that in March 1983, Osborne announced the new Osborne Executive model, which was to release in April, and the resulting decline in sales contributed to their eventual bankruptcy. The first problem with this is that Osborne never actually pre-announced the Osborne Executive. They showed it behind closed doors to the press, under condition that nothing would be published until after the April launch, and nothing was published.
The idea that an early announcement of their new hardware hampered sales was an easy excuse for their declining finances, but Osborne had been struggling for some time at this point, largely due to competition from cheaper and better-specced machines from the likes of Kaypro, but also increasing demand for IBM PC compatibles. Of particular relevance was the release of a direct competitor which was almost fully IBM compatible, the Compaq Portable, which released in, you guessed it, March 1983. To the extent that Osborne's pre-release closed-doors showing of the Executive had any effect, it was due to leaks and rumours, not public announcement, and it was because the new model they showed was well behind the competition, causing retailers to lose faith in Osborne as a company. The previous Osborne 1 model had already been heavily discounted to shift stock by this point anyway, so it's unlikely many Osborne 1 customers would have considered the far more expensive Executive.
Other examples given on the Osborne effect wikipedia page include the Sega Saturn (apparently harmed by the early announcement of the Dreamcast) and Nokia's move into making Windows Phones, both of which have ample other reasons for declining sales, the most obvious being entry of new competitors they couldn't keep up with and copious managerial and strategic blunders. (I appreciate of course that Wikipedia shouldn't be considered an exhaustive resource of literature on the topic, but it's the best I can find with a cursory search).
While the effect can be very hard to isolate due to the inverse causality I described above, that the introduction of new products could be caused by, not the cause of, declining sales, it occurred to me that there is one good case study from the games industry where this perhaps wasn't the case; the introduction of the DS. The GBA was still quite healthy when the DS was introduced, having its life cut short because of Nintendo's fears of the PSP.
The initial announcement of the DS was in January 2004, and it launched in November that year. Direct quarterly comparisons are tricky to find, as it seems Nintendo switched from semi-annual to quarterly reporting right around this time, but we have a good direct comparison in their financial report for the quarter ending September 2004. On the final page, you can see that GBA sales for the six months between April and September 2003 were 8.34 million, and in the six months between April and September 2004, after the DS had been announced, were 6.73 million. That's a 19.3% year-on-year drop. That's not an insignificant drop, but not necessarily one we can ascribe entirely to the announcement, considering that from FY02 to FY03 there was a YoY drop of 8.5% (see the last page of their FY03 financial report), so GBA sales were already declining, and we would have expected that decline to continue. It seems likely that the announcement of the DS played a part in acceleration of the decline, bit it's impossible to say by how much.
Having said all that, I do actually agree with you. Although I don't think the actual effect on sales of an early Switch 2 announcement would be as big as many assume, I do think there would be some hit to sales, however small, and Nintendo simply don't need to announce early in any case. They announced the Switch four and a half months before that launch, and spent most of that time in complete radio silence, so they clearly have no problem going with a short pre-release publicity cycle.
That said, if there's one thing to learn from Osborne's example, it's that sales can be impacted by leaks as well as by actual announcements. We're already at a point where every gaming media outlet has already published articles on a successor to the Switch launching next year, and as we get closer to launch the risk of further leaks will only increase. There may be a point where knowledge of the new console is so widespread that an announcement would make little difference, and would at least allow them to control the story.
P4bl0
Project Oz H2 2024
Lugia667
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/cloudfront-us-east-2.images.arcpublishing.com/reuters/OJ6RB57N3BKQNDG26KTFPTWSOQ.jpg)
Nvidia's French offices raided in cloud-computing competition inquiry, Wall Street Journal reports
France's competition authority raided Nvidia's local offices this week on suspicion the chipmaker engaged in anticompetitive practices, the Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday.
www.reuters.com
darthdiablo
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"No fair, we haven't developed our own DLSS technology yet but nvidia did"Nvidia's French offices raided in cloud-computing competition inquiry, Wall Street Journal reports
France's competition authority raided Nvidia's local offices this week on suspicion the chipmaker engaged in anticompetitive practices, the Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday.
I'm just shitposting, I don't know the full context of why nvidia is accused of anticompetitive practices.
I doubt it would affect anything, and I would hope not. Sounds more like a big fine type of situation, not "people are going to jail" type of thing.
qwerp
Moblin
Nah everything will be good. Seems to be about the cloud computing side.
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Nvidia's French office was raided by the French Competition Authority (Autorité de la concurrence) as part of an investigation into potential anti-competitive practices in the cloud computing sector. It likely means nothing for Switch 2.
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Neoxon
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To be clear, I could see Nintendo telling their investors that they’ll release the Switch’s successor in the upcoming fiscal year this November. But the actual reveal of the Switch 2 (I.E. similar to the Switch 1 reveal video we got in October 2016) likely won’t be until March 2024. As such, the Switch 2 mention to investors in this scenario wouldn’t be substantial enough to upend Switch 1 holiday sales.
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