StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (New Staff Post, Please read)

[D36]

So you're a City fan, right?

YolkFolk probably:

 

[Discostew]

People will look to Nintendo’s history. GBC had BC, GBA had BC, Nintendo DS had BC, and 3DS had it. Basically, the whole handheld line had BC.

Wii and Wii U had BC. I’d imagine GC couldn’t have it with those big N64 cartridges lol. Cartridge to disc….but what happened here? We went from disc Wii U to cartridge based Switch. Going from history alone you’d want to believe Nintendo will want as much BC to their next system. It should be cartridge still.

Even with this proof that Nintendo has supported BC more than not, the "narrative" going around on the internet is that Nintendo won't provide BC because Nintendo is greedy. That they purposefully chose not to allow Wii U BC on Switch, ignoring the actual reasons, so they could get people to double-dip on games that were ported. So the idea is that Nintendo would do that again. Their assumption is based on practically one instance throughout Nintendo's entire history with gaming consoles.

But we here all know better than that. Differing architecture, storage differences, etc lie at the root of their decision.

 

[Lugia667]

If anything Nintendo has been the best of the three with BC historically, of course that doesn't fit the narrative. Sony is now pretty much acting like their handhelds never existed (no Q does not count)

 

[Deleted member 887]

Isn't having the entire eshop of the switch carry over a "value added service"?

I don't want to get deeply semantic, but I would view "the games that can be played on a game console" as a core feature of that game console. A value add would be "six months of Crunchyroll". Like how the core proposition of NSO is "able to play online games", and the retro library is the value add.

 

[eye0h]

Good luck with that one. They are practically the holy grail for Classic Football shirt collectors. Plenty of repros about though.

You wear it to one sunday league game it'll look tattered enough

 

[YolkFolk]

Would you be disappointed if Nintendo used the exact same Joy Cons for the next console?

 

[AshiodyneFX]

Would you be disappointed if Nintendo used the exact same Joy Cons for the next console?

I would be extremely angry if OG joy cons are even compatible with the next console

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

You're talking about the successor's first year on the market, right? Because that's over 18 million units and I don't think it'll reach those numbers by then.

Right. In a chronological year (which goes a bit beyond the first four reported quarters) I've noted before that several systems seem to reach right around 17m, so I wanted to take into account the possibility of Redacted even topping that a bit.

so first half 2024 basically kills the chance of a 3D Mario launch title correct?

There has been a system launches with Mario in the first half (GBA, N64). There have been both major 2D (NSMB) and 3D (SM64, SMG2) games released in first half. They've also released a major 3D (SMG2) half a year after a major 2D (NSMBW).

Why are people suddenly thinking H124

Well I gave up on H223 and that's what's next.

The two most successful home consoles ever were released March 4 and March 3. Take a hint, console manufacturers.

Is it though? Minimum wage is the same and I haven't seen prices drop at all

Lower inflation doesn't mean things going down; that would be deflation. It just means they're not going up as quickly.

Technology wise, it's closer to Series S than PS4, so it would solidly be in the next gen performance band. But when you start making builds for Series S, and then think, why not Drake, and then you're making a handheld mode build for Drake, and now you're in the 2TF range, and you could squeeze out a PS4 port with quarter res textures and 720p resolution, so you do.

But if you ask yourself "Why not PS4?" you might answer yourself "Because while the GPU might be within spitting distance, the CPU sure isn't."

 

[Josh5890]

Would you be disappointed if Nintendo used the exact same Joy Cons for the next console?

Someone at Nintendo needs to be arrested for malpractice if they try that.

 

[SmolSam]

Shouldn't we be hearing way more leaks if there really were dev kits out in the wild and if Nintendo were planning to announce something soon? I remember Bloomberg and other leakers talking non-stop about the Switch Pro in 2021, and while it was just the OLED model in the end, there was a lot more noise than now.

 

[Discostew]

Would you be disappointed if Nintendo used the exact same Joy Cons for the next console?

Yes, mainly on the point of those dang drifting analog sticks.

 

[Lugia667]

I just hope I can play the new games like Pikmin 4 and Mario Wonder on it when it comes out. I feel like that's likely though

 

[Marce-chan]

If Metroid Prime 4 is one of the most expensive productions ever from Nintendo, along with the likes of BoTW, ToTK, Smash Ultimate, then something went terrible wrong and the project will never pay itself. Metroid haven't even broke the 5M barrier in a single title. Zelda, despite the huge increase in sales, had already surpassed this barrier multiple times.
The only way I can see Prime 4 paying itself, if it's one of the biggest Nintendo productions ever, is if they ditch the Prime game design, go for an open-world Metroid approach and, of course, make it a visual showcase for Switch 2 at launch.

Shadow of the Tomb Raider was one of the most expensive games of all time and it made profit/paid itself with like 4-5M. And that's with western AAA budget.

Nintendo's most expensive games ever(TotK, BotW, Smash Ultimate) are the games that touch the 100M US$, but none of those get any near to 200M or even 150M I assume.

Considering the long development it got, probably a lot of outsourcing and being made in America, I'd be surprised if it didn't became the 4th place. But I don't see it being definitely 100M+ or something.

But again, we have Nintendo games costing waaaayyy less to make and selling like 10M/20M so we get kinda spoiled by numbers.

But if MP4 costs like 80-120M to make when all is said and done, I think 5M would be already a good result. We have to remember most western AAA games cost about that to make and generally sell less

keep in mind Miyamoto said BOTW only needed to sell 2 million to make a profit

That's just not true.
What Miyamoto said was that generally games that sell 300k in Japan are considered a commercial success, but there are games that need 2M to break even. It was never a sentence about BotW. That was western media mistranslating and making assumptions.

it was rumored Breath of the Wild budged was $120 milions(Tears of the Kingdom budget is problaby the triple of this)

BotW didn't cost 120M, and TotK DEFINITELY didn't cost 360M lol. Again those were bad estimates. The 120m number was gained through calculating how much a game that needed to sell 2M would cost, which was already a false statement.
And no Nintendo game ever has come close to 200M. That's what games like TLOU II and Cyberpunk cost, with having those 2000 people working on them and crunching.
Nintendo AAA development is not the same as western AAA development. The "games that cost 100m $ or more" that is generally applied would only be true to TotK and SSBU. Nintendo does invest pretty big on marketing tho so that's more of the definition in their reality.

One problem with Prime 4 and 3D Mario launching together is that they're both single player games and Mario is naturally gonna take up more of people's playtime. There would need to be a multiplayer game that could launch with either of these games (or whatever else Nintendo has in mind for launch). Mayyyybe Pokemon if it's a Holiday launch? It's definitely gonna be on Switch if it isn't cross-gen, but I think that can help, even though Pokemon has never launched alongside a new Nintendo system.

Yeah, there's no way they go for 2 titles targeting an overlapping audience in the same day. I think it'd literally kill the sales of MP4 if they release it the same day as a 3D Mario.
What I have in my head now is MP4 releasing in Spring 2024 and 3D Mario releasing in October 2024, with Pokémon remakes in November.

 

[Cybergatuno]

Even with this proof that Nintendo has supported BC more than not, the "narrative" going around on the internet is that Nintendo won't provide BC because Nintendo is greedy. That they purposefully chose not to allow Wii U BC on Switch, ignoring the actual reasons, so they could get people to double-dip on games that were ported. So the idea is that Nintendo would do that again. Their assumption is based on practically one instance throughout Nintendo's entire history with gaming consoles.

But we here all know better than that. Differing architecture, storage differences, etc lie at the root of their decision.

Nintendo could be greedy.
But the Switch having saturated the market, I believe that at least 90% of NX2 adopters will be the same audience.
If people didn't buy a particular game on Switch, they'll probably not buy it on NX2.
If people did buy a particular game on Switch, I don't think it's very probable they'll buy it again on NX2.

I believe that the success of Nintendo's ports and remakes was mostly due to the Wii U's failure and the little audience it had.

Nintendo probably cares very much about succeeding the hardware transition.
BC is a very big incentive to upgrade.

 

[Mekanos]

Shouldn't we be hearing way more leaks if there really were dev kits out in the wild and if Nintendo were planning to announce something soon? I remember Bloomberg and other leakers talking non-stop about the Switch Pro in 2021, and while it was just the OLED model in the end, there was a lot more noise than now.

Not too late to join team 2024

 

[Ghostsonplanets]

Nintendo scrapped the version Bandai Namco was working and put Retro Studios to work on the game, since the reboot of it development, Retro Studios has hired top tiers developers, meaning That Metroid Prime 4 is problaby gonna be a masterpiece like the original Metroid Prime .

Metroid Prime was probably one of, if not the most, expensive Nintendo games when it came out.

But if MP4 costs like 80-120M to make when all is said and done, I think 5M would be already a good result. We have to remember most western AAA games cost about that to make and generally sell less

Answering all of you. I have no doubt Prime 4 will be a masterpiece, much is the faith I place on Retro. But I do question if such expensive production will pay itself if the new Prime 4 stays faithful to the classic Prime game design. Back then, selling above 2.82 million was a huge result. But these same sales wouldn't be great for a modern and expensive production.

Again, I need to see the game first before passing judgement, but I dunno if a classic Prime can sell 4 - 5 Million. Now, if Retro changes Prime to a new thing and go, let's say, open-world, that changes the expectations entirety.

 

[John Omaha]

My point wasn't that BC won't happen, my point was that the "account strategy" that you pointed to is not evidence of it. It is, in fact, evidence of a different strategy which exists independently of the BC question.

Nintendo has had BC before - on every single handheld platform prior to the Switch - and they've had eShops before. Nintendo is selling this as a new strategy, using "value added services". Your gaming library is not a "value added service." Retro games on NSO are "value added service," with the core service being online access. Missions and rewards are a value added service.

It arguably isn't, and that's why the Value Added Services start from the Nintendo Account and expand into their own little space on the graph. They are just one part of the new account strategy.

Without a solid backwards (forwards?) compatibility system for packaged software (at least digital), investing into a Nintendo Account becomes a lot less appealing as a consumer.

 

[ILikeFeet]

I said it elsewhere, but MP4 should go immersive sim

sure it won't sell as well because of the genre, but I think that's a natural progression

 

[Legion of Primes]

YolkFolk probably:

 

[Truno]

Shouldn't we be hearing way more leaks if there really were dev kits out in the wild and if Nintendo were planning to announce something soon?

Yes

 

[theguy]

football transfer rumours are just like nintendo switch 2 rumours. imminent becomes soon, soon becomes a few months, a few months becomes i don’t believe this is gonna happen at all and then one day there is sheer and utter panic and the announcement is made.

 

[D36]

Shouldn't we be hearing way more leaks if there really were dev kits out in the wild and if Nintendo were planning to announce something soon? I remember Bloomberg and other leakers talking non-stop about the Switch Pro in 2021, and while it was just the OLED model in the end, there was a lot more noise than now.

Usually, yes. MVG might be right about Nintendo keeping a tight leash on publishers. Either way, we might know sometime in the fall.

 

[SmolSam]

Not too late to join team 2024

I was never on team 2023

 

[YugamiSekai]

Would you be disappointed if Nintendo used the exact same Joy Cons for the next console?

I wouldn't mind at all personally.

 

[Cybergatuno]

Answering all of you. I have no doubt Prime 4 will be a masterpiece, much is the faith I place on Retro. But I do question if such expensive production will pay itself if the new Prime 4 stays faithful to the classic Prime game design. Back then, selling above 2.82 million was a huge result. But these same sales wouldn't be great for a modern and expensive production.

Again, I need to see the game first before passing judgement, but I dunno if a classic Prime can sell 4 - 5 Million. Now, if Retro changes Prime to a new thing and go, let's say, open-world, that changes the expectations entirety.

I agree.
Just more of the same will not be very appealing to the masses.

But as other people said here, if a game is drooling-good and properly marketed, surprise, it sells.

Metroid as a franchise and Samus as a character could be the next big hit, but it needs its Breath-of-the-Wild moment.
Re-invent and expand its gameplay, add a great poignant story and market it with a punching trailer.
It would angry the fans, but it would cater to a whole new wide audience.

 

[Mr Doggo]

Again, I need to see the game first before passing judgement, but I dunno if a classic Prime can sell 4 - 5 Million. Now, if Retro changes Prime to a new thing and go, let's say, open-world, that changes the expectations entirety.

Im glad that at the very least you consider the possibility that mp4 isnt going to be classic prime lol. I feel like those kinds of discussions are pointless because we have no idea how the game will play out, but yeah.

I dont think most people here are expecting a classic game when they say prime 4 will be setting out a completely new standard for the franchise, Marce certainly isnt.

 

[Scrawnton]

BC is the best way to successfully transition to a new system without completely cutting the legs off of Switch as a cash cow. Release Switch 2 with BC and have a lengthy (two year?) cross gen period where Switch owners still get consistent games, they just run at higher resolutions on Switch 2. Sprinkle a couple actual next gen exclusives in there and consider your transition successful. This is literally what Sony just did with the PS5.

 

[Concernt]

But if you ask yourself "Why not PS4?" you might answer yourself "Because while the GPU might be within spitting distance, the CPU sure isn't."

True, but I don't imagine many games will be straining the CPU of even Drake for a time. Games have spent so long pushing GPU usage and neglecting CPU, it'll take a while for development to wise up, and even then, only if the game has and needs CPU bound features.

 

[Concernt]

Shouldn't we be hearing way more leaks if there really were dev kits out in the wild and if Nintendo were planning to announce something soon? I remember Bloomberg and other leakers talking non-stop about the Switch Pro in 2021, and while it was just the OLED model in the end, there was a lot more noise than now.

Not really. Xbox Series X didn't exactly blow up the rumourmill. Meanwhile, right now I'd say there's an appropriate amount of leaks and discussion going on for where they are in the pre-launch period.

As many have speculated to be the case, I do think Nintendo has tightened the lid on leaks given what happened in 2016 and 2021.

 

[Truno]

For entertainment purposes:

 

[eye0h]

For entertainment purposes:
* Hidden text: cannot be quoted. *

There's no way anyone could possibly even entertain this LOL

 

[D36]

For entertainment purposes:
* Hidden text: cannot be quoted. *

 

[ziggyrivers]

 

[Hocot8]

There's no way anyone could possibly even entertain this LOL

You say that but deep down you know someone would...

 

[plank]

No matter how much you guy post Star Wars media and parodies, There will never be another Star Wars game by Factor 5 ever again.

 

[KeijiKG]

For entertainment purposes:
* Hidden text: cannot be quoted. *

That would be career suicide just on the fact that it'd be repeating the same mistake as the Wii U.
Also any 4chan post that has a claim that should be backed up in a source (in this case, said post claimed Nintendo registered a trademark) but doesn't bother to link is more than likely gonna be bupkis and doesn't deserve a second thought.

For reference there was a troll topic claiming the Switch's successor's SoC was gonna be called Wariko, missing the naming convention of NVIDIA's codenaming from comics.

 

[Supreme Overlord]

The only way I can see Prime 4 paying itself, if it's one of the biggest Nintendo productions ever, is if they ditch the Prime game design, go for an open-world Metroid approach and, of course, make it a visual showcase for Switch 2 at launch.

Again, I need to see the game first before passing judgement, but I dunno if a classic Prime can sell 4 - 5 Million. Now, if Retro changes Prime to a new thing and go, let's say, open-world, that changes the expectations entirety.

I'm kind of curious what's meant by open world in cases like this, and how it's meant to play out in application, because it's always possible something gets lost in communication. I kind of figure it would become as such by the end of the game, but I'm not so sure it'll be wide open from the start.

Im glad that at the very least you consider the possibility that mp4 isnt going to be classic prime lol. I feel like those kinds of discussions are pointless because we have no idea how the game will play out, but yeah.

I dont think most people here are expecting a classic game when they say prime 4 will be setting out a completely new standard for the franchise, Marce certainly isnt.

I guess the other question is what "classic Prime" means. The Prime titles were each rather different in various ways.

Re-invent and expand its gameplay, add a great poignant story and market it with a punching trailer.
It would angry the fans, but it would cater to a whole new wide audience.

... Wasn't that supposed to be Other M?
In any case, I don't think they need to go out of their way to anger the fans, especially given the very real possibility it doesn't also pick up this whole new wide audience. I've said before that Metroid and Dark Souls (especially the first one) share some similar DNA, and the Soulsbourne meta-series has done really well for itself in keeping a focus on what makes it work -- which doesn't necessitate doing the exact same thing constantly, but also doesn't require reinventing in a way that's said will anger fans but cater to a whole new wide market.

Though I'm wondering if this should be broken off into the Metroid Prime 4 thread, or if we're trying to keep it out of there.

 

[Supreme Overlord]

For entertainment purposes:
* Hidden text: cannot be quoted. *

That would be career suicide just on the fact that it'd be repeating the same mistake as the Wii U.

Nintendo is resigned to this Sisyphean doom, because Nintendo will always make the worst choice, because Nintendoomed.

 

[ziggyrivers]

Valid question:
Has a Metroid game been heavily marketed?

I see all this talk of niche, not so blockbuster, but has Nintendo marketed Metroid aggressively?

 

[Concernt]

For entertainment purposes:
* Hidden text: cannot be quoted. *

Of all things that are fake as fuck, this is the fakest of all fucks.

Entertaining, though, you're right.

 

[Paxie]

 

[Concernt]

* Hidden text: cannot be quoted. *

You have to admit it would be very Nintendo.

 

[Cybergatuno]

...
As many have speculated to be the case, I do think Nintendo has tightened the lid on leaks given what happened in 2016 and 2021.

Exactly this.

2021 was a fiasco for both Bloomberg and Nintendo. Nintendo should be tightening the leashes and the industry should be more suspicious when reporting about Nintendo. The lack of leaks, rumors or reports could be a consequence.

No more 11 developers with a devkit and a big mouth.
I see many advantages to having a very close circle of trusted launch partners.

Assuming BC, the industry at large can keep targeting the Switch. Games will be available day and date on NX2.
Ambitious games not possible on Switch could release on NX2 within a year.
An interval of 6 month between reveal and release would be enough for most of those to target the launch date with a patch or a port.

Games from Nintendo and partners would have a very high attach rate and possibly long tail, instead of having their sales diluted by a bunch of shovelware.

I see a lot of demand for NX2.
Nintendo being a software factory first and foremost, they would want to sell their games first, and from trusted partners, before they open the floodgates.

The lack of leaks, from devs, retail or otherwise, is no indication at all.

 

[grobla123]

In and of itself Switch Wonder is a pretty neat title for the console, even with a new packed in Mario game with the same title. Its worked before. Its just super confusing for customers to buy "Super Mario Bros Wonder" on the OG switch and be concerned as to whether it works on the new one. Sure, backcompat eases it somewhat but what if the new version has enough upgrades (certainly enough to be the main showcase/pack in for next gen). Its just silly marketing.

 

[SmolSam]

Valid question:
Has a Metroid game been heavily marketed?

I see all this talk of niche, not so blockbuster, but has Nintendo marketed Metroid aggressively?

Of course not. Just a trailer in a Direct and then nothing else. I think only Prime1 got some marketing, but only because of the GameCube release.

 

[ILikeFeet]

Valid question:
Has a Metroid game been heavily marketed?

I see all this talk of niche, not so blockbuster, but has Nintendo marketed Metroid aggressively?

Other M was. as was Dread

*heavily marketed for metroid titles, anyway

 

[John Omaha]

So I have a general question for the thread that isn’t entirely hardware-related:

How does Nintendo maintain or grow their console business from here?

Switch is the third best-selling console to date, with a shot at taking the number one spot.

They have sold half a billion pieces of first-party software on Switch, more than any other console to date. In fact, they may sell more first party software on Switch than on DS and Wii combined (excluding Wii Sports):

Source: https://www.installbaseforum.com/fo...hardware-sales-data-from-1983-to-present.170/

Some of their games are reaching absolutely ridiculous numbers of over 50 million units sold.

I honestly don’t think there’s a lot of room for improvement on their current model. Even maintaining that kind of sales performance next-gen will be extremely challenging.

How do they grow their console business from here?

 

[ziggyrivers]

Of course not. Just a trailer in a Direct and then nothing else. I think only Prime1 got some marketing, but only because of the GameCube release.

Which is the point I wanted to address: Metroid isn’t in a lot of consumers’ psyche because Nintendo doesn’t promote it heavily. You say Nintendo, and people think about Mario, Zelda and Pokemon. No Metroid. That could change. Like how Fire Emblem is seemingly mainstream now. Metroid just needs a good opportunity

 

[MrBones]

So I have a general question for the thread that isn’t entirely hardware-related:

How does Nintendo maintain or grow their console business from here?

Switch is the third best-selling console to date, with a shot at taking the number one spot.

They have sold half a billion pieces of first-party software on Switch, more than any other console to date. In fact, they may sell more first party software on Switch than on DS and Wii combined (excluding Wii Sports):

Source: https://www.installbaseforum.com/fo...hardware-sales-data-from-1983-to-present.170/

Some of their games are reaching absolutely ridiculous numbers of over 50 million units sold.

I honestly don’t think there’s a lot of room for improvement on their current model. Even maintaining that kind of sales performance next-gen will be extremely challenging.

How do they grow their console business from here?

Nobody on this forum will like my answer, but:

Multiple hardware SKUs. Diverge the console and handheld lines again.

Nintendo achieved their greatest success (Wii+DS at 250m sales) when they supported two systems. More systems on the market = more sales. The hard cap for a single system is 150, and I don't see that changing.

My armchair business idea is a traditional console alongside a purposefully underpowered handheld system centered around a core gimmick (ala the DS). You could sell the handheld system for cheap and have rapid turnaround time for game development due to the lower scope. The popularity of indie games proves smaller scoped games aren't a inherent sales inhibitor.

 

[Pacobob]

I just read a 4chan leak from the "switch w....r" wtf