ReddDreadtheLead
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To be honest, even 8SMs might not be enough for DLSS 4K60, but 4-8SMs should be enough for 4K30.
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Furukawa Speaks! We discuss the announcement of the Nintendo Switch Successor and our June Direct Predictions on the new episode of the Famiboards Discussion Club! Check it out here!
StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (New Staff Post, Please read)
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Alovon11
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Assuming Series S Settings, yeah, likely, it would likely take DLSS Ultra Performance 1440p plus NIS 2x to hit 4K 60 likely.
But for games designed for Switch Dane, I say 4K 60fps could be a regular option because of DLSS+NIS, at least at 6-8SMs.
WAW_Greyhound
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When major revision akin to New 3DS or fully fledged successor depends on availability of silicon wafers and production capacity of newer nodes that will dictate factor of performance while 3rd party support can essentially be rendered irrelevant involving high end games due to nature of 2 in 1 system that Switch is that for Nintendo and consumers makes their life easier since there is no two systems dedicated to home and portable respectively hence far burden for investment.
Nintendo could have set up Switch variants with "Mariko" Tegra X1+ to have higher CPU and GPU along RAM clocks due to LPDDR4X being used, but then there is issue of 3rd party developers that could simply choose to target higher performing models while leaving original model with considerably worse state.
Best course of action is for them to set launch of next Switch for 7th anniversary of launch of OG Nintendo Switch with unveiling being 6 months before while production starts 12 months before launch in order to have enough stock while by end of 2022 to determine if there will be or not supply of LPDDR5X.
Nintendo could have set up Switch variants with "Mariko" Tegra X1+ to have higher CPU and GPU along RAM clocks due to LPDDR4X being used, but then there is issue of 3rd party developers that could simply choose to target higher performing models while leaving original model with considerably worse state.
Best course of action is for them to set launch of next Switch for 7th anniversary of launch of OG Nintendo Switch with unveiling being 6 months before while production starts 12 months before launch in order to have enough stock while by end of 2022 to determine if there will be or not supply of LPDDR5X.
8SMs would be enough to render Mario Kart 8 Deluxe and Smash Bros at native 4K60FPS as too Fast RMX, but main issue would be bandwidth of system memory even with LPDDR5X hence if system has 8GB then it would be viable to have 4 channel memory system that would provide over 5 times the bandwidth.
OP
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I agree, especially when taking into account ray tracing. And there's at least one developer who's fully committed to ray tracing, 4A Games.
Although I don't agree with John from Spawn Wave that if Nintendo's pursuing the next Nintendo Switch hardware, Nintendo would probably do so at around 2024, I do agree with John with the hypothetical scenario that Nintendo may abandon the traditional path of generations, and release different models that continues to have the Nintendo Switch branding, in a similar manner to the iPads, etc.
John also mentions a hypothetical scenario where consumers want more powerful hardware and are willing to pay more money, and Nintendo plans to release next Nintendo Switch hardware for $400 or more, which can still play the same Nintendo Switch games. And eventually Nintendo would phase out the old Nintendo Switch, being replaced by the next Nintendo Switch model.
And the cycle repeats, although Nintendo may not necessarily break away from the old Nintendo Switch as the traditional generation.
John believes that's a good way for Nintendo to go since the Nintendo Switch branding is so strong (e.g. Nintendo Switch Lite), therefore Nintendo could continue selling hardware in a continuous cycle, where the next Nintendo Switch hardware could last for 3 years, and then another one, which could last another 3 years, and so on. Therefore, the Nintendo Switch generation could potentially last for ~15 years.
(The most relevant part starts at 08:09 in the video.)
bloopland33
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Thanks so much. I was hoping Nate would give what he believes is the potential release window and/or an update on what he’s heard (if such an update even exists) but sounds like a good discussion. I hope MVG’s wrong about 2023-2024 haha
Dekuman
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I agree with their view overall, good to see them swat down the idea of MK8 DLC determining their next hardware. Another good point here is the DLC is lower effort in that the tracks already exist and are being remastered and could well be a side project while the main team is working on MK9.
MVG again adds a nice 3rd party perspective to this and I do believe Nintendo will care about their partners, insofar as their partners now make a lot of money for them as you don't sell 230+ million pieces of software on just 1st party stuff, even if Nintendo is 50% of that, that's still 115+ million of 3rd party sales.
That said, not a big fan of the stop gap GBC talk, it i think confuses the situation way too much. Unless the Switch Pro is literally an overclocked Mariko with more RAM, it's not a GBC
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Dekuman
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I think they are subscribing to Nintendo apocalypse syndrome (NAS) which is basically assume the worst from Nintendo, which may be accurate but I'd like to give the new blood and new management a chance to prove a track record first.
Also I don't know if Nightdive studios got early info/access on a new Switch hardware already, they may already well have and MVG, even if he is not working on that new hardware may have learned some things. In that case, to protect himself and his employer, he would and should absolutely gaslight people with his predictions and be non specific and intentionally wrong about it.
As for SpawnWave (i haven't watched his new video), i don't know who he knows in the industry but outside of his teardown videos, he doesn't strike me as an insider and i always felt Nate was the one giving him his insider info as they run in the same circles, so in that case he could just be guessing.
Alovon11
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Same.
It's kinda the critical flaw with "Oh Switch 2 will be in 2025 or 2026" idea in relation to Dane in 2022/2023.
Dane is just too big of an upgrade while maintaining a config that even allows for 1440p capped output (which is a bit disingenuous for "4K Ready" IMHO) for an Altan-based SoC in 2025/2026 to be a big leap worthy of "Oh yeah, now this a generational leap".
The main thing it comes down to is that, unlike the One X/PS4 Pro, Dane sort of has to change the CPU which itself is an astronomical leap over OG Switch, but the CPUs in Altan won't be too big of a leap over Orin and therefore Dane in all likelihood.
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I don't even mean that they should know about it as insiders, I just mean when you speculate on it just like we do from an outside perspective I'm confused about how they rationalize that report about 11 devs having devkits and come up with a conclusion that no hardware is launching until 2024.
And I don't just mean them, but regular forumgoers like us here. I'm not understanding how that report is constantly being brushed aside, the reasoning for ignoring or disbelieving it doesn't quite make sense to me.
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I think people are also forgetting about Nintendo's answer to question #4, especially the last paragraph, during the Q&A for the financial results for the fiscal year ending on March 2022.
I don't think Nintendo would be strongly emphasising the importance of maintaining and expanding the nearly 100 million annual playing users for the next hardware platform if Nintendo didn't plan on launching new hardware relatively soon (holiday 2022 - early 2023).
I don't think Nintendo would be strongly emphasising the importance of maintaining and expanding the nearly 100 million annual playing users for the next hardware platform if Nintendo didn't plan on launching new hardware relatively soon (holiday 2022 - early 2023).
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Dekuman
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Probably because the device we thought bloomberg was reporting on released as the OLED and that discredits bloomberg to some degree in their mind.
The logical conclusion here is since bloomberg got so many details right is that they had multiple sources, some in software and some in manufacturing and it looked like the software leads they got was lining up with the hardware leads and they were in fact reporting on two devices. Jeff Grubb admitted as much. (he was only aware of the 2022 Switch not the OLED model)
It's also possible Nintendo clamped down hard after those leaks on the software side, which meant no new leads and in the news/rumors/speculation business if there's no news it feels like that rumor is 'dead' and that leaves open the space for self-doubt to creep in and for apocalyptic thinking to settle in "we're not getitng a new switch afterall..."
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I mean I get it, personally.
It’s hard to be both a long time Nintendo follower, and also be optimistic about what’s being proposed amidst the difficult-to-grok OLED model, and no news since. Add on being reasonably certain that, with enough titles on the level of a brand new Mario or Zelda year on year, they probably could maintain engagement on the current hardware for 3 or so years, and we have a strong case to be pessimistic.
The “11 developers thing” is the biggest evidence we have of something coming soon, but Bloombergs own article even humored that’s plans may change. That’s the take Spawnwave and others are probably subscribing to.
It’s hard to be both a long time Nintendo follower, and also be optimistic about what’s being proposed amidst the difficult-to-grok OLED model, and no news since. Add on being reasonably certain that, with enough titles on the level of a brand new Mario or Zelda year on year, they probably could maintain engagement on the current hardware for 3 or so years, and we have a strong case to be pessimistic.
The “11 developers thing” is the biggest evidence we have of something coming soon, but Bloombergs own article even humored that’s plans may change. That’s the take Spawnwave and others are probably subscribing to.
Dekuman
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I also leave the door open bloomberg got something garbled in their sources and the 11 delvelopers was never working on new Switch hardware because I think there is a more recent piece from Mochizuki where he referenced Zynga again but dropped the Switch 4K talk.
Do we have another report from another source on these developers working on new Switch?
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That's not how the most recent article was phrased. They even directly referenced last year's article in that.
He never implied those 11 devs were working on 4k Switch only games, just that they had 4k devkits. And simply reconfirmed recently that the games they are working on will launch later this year.
Sure but it's the type of rumor that can't exactly be fabricated.
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I don’t think we have any reason to assume Mochizuki’s stance has changed yet. I took it as an opportune cheeky reference to his previous headline “Developers Are Making Games for a Nintendo 4K Console That Doesn’t Exist”. Anything more explicit on the topic would have been it’s own headline, and may very well be in the near future.
Simba1
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You cant never be sure with rumors, and Bloomberg reports about Switch revision until now were mixed bag.
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Nah their sources' info has been spot on. It's how Mochizuki interprets the sources' info that has been suspect lately.
Alovon11
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Umm...the info behind them actually have been accurate, it's just Mochizuki's interpretation that has been off every now and then.
When breaking down the info into bullet points the info is generally true 9 times out of 10, more or less like Kopite's track record which we are all keen on trusting.
- Nintendo is Developing new hardware with DLSS capability
- Nitnendo is releasing a new revision of Swtich in Fall 2021
- Nintendo has sent devkits out to developers stating to target 4K
- Nintendo has sent more devkits out to at least 11 studios, one of them being Zynga.
"Nintendo is sending 4K Devkits to 11 or more studios for a DLSS revision in Fall 2021"
Doesn't make the bullet point info he used to get to that invalidated.
And the point like the 11+ Developer point is one of those things you don't just fabricate and put in a Financial Subscription Paper/Site without getting the whole thing sued by the companies at hand for misinformation as in a serious case if they were lying Nintendo would be in very much grounds to sue Bloomberg and Mochizuki for Libel/Misinformation to manipulate perception/stock (As that sort of thing would impact that and could be chased if they were legitimately lying)
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bloopland33
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Wonder if we’ll be looking at a pre-E3 period announcement like we thought we were last year. Made sense at the time, until the hardware didn’t exist.
But if it 2022 is indeed the year, it would be a prime time for those companies that have games prepared for it (before the string of presentations begins)
But if it 2022 is indeed the year, it would be a prime time for those companies that have games prepared for it (before the string of presentations begins)
not everything will even hit 4K. some games like MK8 or Smash can do it (if they added AA, of course), but I don't think BotW2 will. 1600p/60 after DLSS tho? hell yea
daase ko
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You should keep it for teh switch 4k at this point.
I say that but if it's not 2022, I'm gonna do 720p xenoblade again with 3
Luckily I'm feeling confident with that first half mega nintendo dump...
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I thought there was some DF video talking about how hitting 60 fps at high resolutions on a hypothetical Switch DLSS device would be unlikely or challenging; Something to do with rendering times?
I’d love it myself but I’ve generally assumed we’d only see 4K/30 at best.
Alovon11
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Well, that was with an older version of DLSS, with DLSS 2.3 they apparently sped it up a fair bit.
And not to mention that Orin has quite the number of TOPs. for it's Tensor Cores.
DF used their math based on Orin S which is at 20TOPs, which based on the Orin AGX diagram we can surmise is a 2-3SM part based on its 20TOPs Rating at roughly 2.04TOPs per Tensor core.
And they did do it at 10W which I feel most of us expect Dane to have higher W numbers when docked than 10W.
Dane is going to be a 30-66TOPs device with far more performance in Tensor cores and a better DLSS Algorithm.
So 4K 60fps via Performance Mode DLSS very much is possible even in the 30TOPs lowest end range for 4SM Dane in a fair number of scenarios.
Ditto if they add a DLA which is 97TOPs on it's own so 4SM Dane + DLA would be upwards of 130 TOPs (More than the 16SM Orin GPU's Tensor cores can do on it's own for TOPs aka more than the 3050 Laptop can do)
And 8SM Dane should be able to do 4k 60fps DLSS in either scenario more or less considering DLSS 2.3 and the more controlled dev enviroment.
Instro
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Honestly the dev kit thing seems so iron clad. If nothing happens in the next year or so I can only imagine that it's a SNES CD type situation where you have devs working on games for hardware that never releases.
Perhaps we'll get some leaks out of GDC that will shed some light on what's going on.
Perhaps we'll get some leaks out of GDC that will shed some light on what's going on.
D
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Lol I’ve waited four years and with the announcement of a sequel I gave in. It’s much, much more enjoyable in handheld mode to me. Much less significant framerate drops versus the sub 25fps you get in docked because they wouldn’t lower it below 1280x720p. I guess outside of third parties Nintendo don’t want games to run below “HD” on a TV. Nowadays I’d imagine XB2 would have a lower bound of 600p when docked and have a much more stable framerate because of it.You should keep it for teh switch 4k at this point.
I say that but if it's not 2022, I'm gonna do 720p xenoblade again with 3
Luckily I'm feeling confident with that first half mega nintendo dump...
I don’t really care about “blurry” games on a 7” screen tbh especially when the framerate feels 4-5fps better versus the docked mode on a 30fps target game. It’s fucked up MS never returned to it to patch it. I doubt it will receive a DLSS patch either.
it really depends on the game. if the game is already 1080p/60 on switch, then 4K/60 is definitely doable. if the game is 720p/30, probably not. 4K/30 though? sure
ReddDreadtheLead
#TeamLate2025WithAPotentialForEarly2026
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Not quite, even comparing it to the RTX 2060 which has many more tensor cores and the TOPs of this hypothetical device would be on the very low end, even with the improvements to Ampere for the way Tensor Cores function, it would require like ~12ms to super sample an image via DLSS and the rest would need to render the image within the 16.6ms frame Buffer which may not be enough time. It would be enough for a 33.3ms frame time though which would be fine for 30FPS titles.
If they use it solely for 1440p which you need a 4K TV anyway to use for the market Nintendo targets, supersampled from 1080p.
Which can be enough for 60FPS.
Alovon11
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DLSS+NIS could be the key here, as NIS could fit into that window at 60fps
Assuming a sub-8SM config for Dane
Dekuman
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One thing that's puzzling to me is the HD-2D video capture in the trailer in Live A Live trailer and the eshop screens is so much cleaner and higher resolution than Octopath or Triangle Strategy Triangle strategy's low resolution is particularly bad compared to LiveALive
Perhaps its not pushing DOF, using a different engine, which allows for them to push for higher resolution but could this be a hint of new hardware?
I know Nate had commented Switch Sports and Mario Kart deluxe press packet screenshots were in 6k resolution, though he thought it doesnt mean anything.
Very hard to share screenshots from the shop pages but you can have a look here.
www.nintendo.com
www.nintendo.com
www.nintendo.com
Edit: At the end of the Character Trailer of LiveALive the HD-2D logo is branded as 1.2 (version 1.2?)
Perhaps its not pushing DOF, using a different engine, which allows for them to push for higher resolution but could this be a hint of new hardware?
I know Nate had commented Switch Sports and Mario Kart deluxe press packet screenshots were in 6k resolution, though he thought it doesnt mean anything.
Very hard to share screenshots from the shop pages but you can have a look here.
LIVE A LIVE for Nintendo Switch - Nintendo Official Site
Buy LIVE A LIVE and shop other great Nintendo products online at the official My Nintendo Store.
www.nintendo.com
TRIANGLE STRATEGY™ for Nintendo Switch™ - Nintendo Game Details
Strategically command a group of warriors in a tangled plot where your decisions make all the difference. Experience a stunning HD-2D tactical adventure from Square Enix.
www.nintendo.com
Octopath Traveler™ for Nintendo Switch - Nintendo Official Site
Buy Octopath Traveler™ and shop other great Nintendo products online at the official My Nintendo Store.
www.nintendo.com
Edit: At the end of the Character Trailer of LiveALive the HD-2D logo is branded as 1.2 (version 1.2?)
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One thing that's puzzling to me is the HD-2D video capture in the trailer in Live A Live trailer and the eshop screens is so much cleaner and higher resolution than Octopath or Triangle Strategy Triangle strategy's low resolution is particularly bad compared to LiveALive
Perhaps its not pushing DOF, using a different engine, which allows for them to push for higher resolution but could this be a hint of new hardware?
I know Nate had commented Switch Sports and Mario Kart deluxe press packet screenshots were in 6k resolution, though he thought it doesnt mean anything.
Very hard to share screenshots from the shop pages but you can have a look here.
LIVE A LIVE for Nintendo Switch - Nintendo Official Site
Buy LIVE A LIVE and shop other great Nintendo products online at the official My Nintendo Store.
TRIANGLE STRATEGY™ for Nintendo Switch™ - Nintendo Game Details
Strategically command a group of warriors in a tangled plot where your decisions make all the difference. Experience a stunning HD-2D tactical adventure from Square Enix.
Octopath Traveler™ for Nintendo Switch - Nintendo Official Site
Buy Octopath Traveler™ and shop other great Nintendo products online at the official My Nintendo Store.
Edit: At the end of the Character Trailer of LiveALive the HD-2D logo is branded as 1.2 (version 1.2?)
It's definitely plausible they're just bullshots. I wouldn't draw any conclusions from random marketing screenshots.
Dekuman
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would be uncharacteristic given the other examples i included from the same publisher, and how do you bullshot an entire trailer for a Switch exclusive game.
Alovon11
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Yeah, that is very odd, also is the Mario DLC the only Nitnendo self published images at 6K? Or are others >1080p for Switch footage "in-game"
Dekuman
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Nate said Switch Sports and Mario Kart DLC screenshots in the press packet were in 6k. I could have misheard but i think he said those 2 games.
Alovon11
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Yeah, I'm mainly asking if the press packet images before those two were just 1080p or not
As it would be very weird for not one but two games from Nintendo first parry to have their press images at way higher res than Switch can handle/even output
Very well could be PC footage, which is a platform the game is likely to come to eventually. It feels unlikely that Nintendo would show footage captured from unannounced hardware in one of their presentations.
Screenshots >1080p for first party Switch games show up from time to time. This is far from the first time and probably won't be the last.
Alovon11
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Yeah, whole footage is a bit of a thing I think is just optimization.
But the press images are...weird
Dekuman
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Highly doubt PC port is ready to go if its at least 12 month timed exclusive, and even if it is, why use PC bullshots for this game that Nintendo is publishing but not for the otherr 2. I also wouldn't think Nintendo would use PC screens.
I'm thinking it has something to do with the HD-2D 1.2 branding as the most realistic explanation, followed by it being on new hardware.
I don't think Nintendo policies the eShop screenshots very much. Pretty sure there are notable cases of games using screenshots from other platforms. Also these games have been made in Unreal. The barrier to producing some PC footage of an Unreal game is low.
"The footage is from unannounced hardware" is very low on the list of potential reasons why marketing video and screenshots of a game might look suspiciously good. There's a pretty good chance that would constitute breaking NDA.
Dekuman
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it's their own game ...
strange take.
Alovon11
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Yeah, it being Nintendo first party titles for press images and having it be 6K of all resolutions for 2 games when the rest are at or lower than 1080p is certainly strange
As there is no real way to see those Nitnendo Exclusive and developed games at that Resolution really (Officially at least, so unless someone at Nintendo is using Yuzu, something may be up)
Dekuman
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to be fair nate said he didn't think too much of it but he took note of it. He did not disclose the actual resolution of the screens but noted super sampling screenshots is a possibility for press purposes (maybe for print?). Also, he didn't say the LiveALive screens were 6K either, i was just putting the two together because I noticed the HD-2D in LiveALive is a class above what we've seen so far in terms of clarity.
I was primarily referring to Live A Live there. For Nintendo, who knows why they do bullshots sometimes, but it's not a new thing. It's not something that should be read into.
Dekuman
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Yeah its what im referencing too. It's a Square-Enix Switch timed exclusive, so Nintendo is also publishing that.
Which is why i pulled in the other two HD-2D games they published or will publish and Square-Enix developed to compare.
Given Octopath has already been ported to other platforms, I don't think Nintendo is really super involved with these projects.
ReddDreadtheLead
#TeamLate2025WithAPotentialForEarly2026
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This though I do consider more realistic interpretation of the situation. Reminder y’all, DLSS is cool and fun but it’s not literally black magic.
1440p-1652p Zelda 60FPS let’s gooo
Mario Kart 8 can get away with the boost prior to DLSS from stronger hardware where it can take a 1440p image and super sample to 1800-2160p.
Alovon11
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Yeah, although DLSS+NIS should be able to take most things 1440p or higher up to 4K reliably imhoThis though I do consider more realistic interpretation of the situation. Reminder y’all, DLSS is cool and fun but it’s not literally black magic.
1440p-1652p Zelda 60FPS let’s gooo
Mario Kart 8 can get away with the boost prior to DLSS from stronger hardware where it can take a 1440p image and super sample to 1800-2160p.
Either that or NVIDIA adds NIS into DLSS' pipeline proper for Dane (Maybe before DLSS kicks in and upscales?)
Dekuman
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The eshop page was created when it was exclusive, they didn't change the screenshots after the timed exclusivity ended LOL.
The comparison is on the Switch versions at time these assets went up and LiveALive's assets clearly looks much better. I'm open for suggestions, heck i even offered up the HD-2D v1.2 being a likely possibility, but your line of reasoning is just bizarre.
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