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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (New Staff Post, Please read)

Do we expect Switch carts to work on Switch 2?
Do we expect cross-gen games to have two distinct SKUs or eShop entries?

I hope Nintendo handles cross-gen the same way as Xbox.
I would buy a digital game on the eShop and I would be able to play it on either my current Switch or the Switch 2 when I get it.
I would buy a physical game for both Switch and Switch 2 and it would download a distinct configuration file and high-res DLC pack for Switch 2.

In which case, cross-gen games would be a single codebase with varying configurations.

I expect Switch cards to work with Switch 2. I suspect they will stick with the existing game card technology. Now that Nintendo is closing in on selling 50% of software for its platform digitally, prioritizing gamecard speed isnt likely. Its not that they cant make 64GB cards, its the cost associated with them that pushes publishers away. 32GB card will probably become the new standard for Switch 2, although cheaper cards will still be available, and third parties will just have the user download the rest of the game to internal storage.

I suspect Nintendo will handle backwards compatibility as a virtual Switch application similar to what Wii U did with Wii. That way Switch 2 will have its own unique eshop. As much as I would love for it to be more interconnected like it is on Xbox, I doubt Nintendo will do that.
 
I expect Switch cards to work with Switch 2. I suspect they will stick with the existing game card technology. Now that Nintendo is closing in on selling 50% of software for its platform digitally, prioritizing gamecard speed isnt likely. Its not that they cant make 64GB cards, its the cost associated with them that pushes publishers away. 32GB card will probably become the new standard for Switch 2, although cheaper cards will still be available, and third parties will just have the user download the rest of the game to internal storage.

I suspect Nintendo will handle backwards compatibility as a virtual Switch application similar to what Wii U did with Wii. That way Switch 2 will have its own unique eshop. As much as I would love for it to be more interconnected like it is on Xbox, I doubt Nintendo will do that.
Why would they seperate them in the slightest eShop wise? That sounds entirely absurd. Why support two eShops when you can just support one? Why have two different eShops connected to the same operating system, on the same device?

The Wii U worked the way it did because it was the Wii U, the Switch is much better equipped to have a smooth transition.

Plus, remember that 3DS just had DSiware on the eShop rather than forcing you to use the DSi Shop, or boot into DSi mode.
 
I'm not convinced there will be enhanced games, or that a cross-gen period is a high priority to Nintendo
You think it will be more like how Wii was handled in Wii U with a Switch app?

I think a key difference is DLC/patches is far more accepted by their userbase now, and all those service games will definately get a successor build, which then opens up the question of how they handle the user bases. I think they're mostly all cross play enable now now so may not be a huge issue and the new Switch version will just be treated as a new platform (Apex, Overwatch, Fortnite, Warframe, Paladins, Dauntless) but i don't play all of them to know what's what and or if there's service games only hosting a Switch specific ecosystem.
 
I'm not convinced there will be enhanced games, or that a cross-gen period is a high priority to Nintendo
I see no reason they wouldn't. They value evergreens. Enhancements help evergreens. They're not some zero sum game that are a pure loss leader, they're extra incentive to buy a game that the Switch [Redacted] can already play.

It would extraordinarily odd, not just in the industry, but for Nintendo. Every single handheld from Nintendo with backwards compatibility had enhancements on the next device. While the scale varied immensely as to what those enhancements were, this has always been something Nintendo has cared about.

They have publicly stated they are concerned about a smooth transition. Enhancements smooth out a transition- just like they did for GameBoy, to GameBoy Color, to GBA.
 
You think it will be more like how Wii was handled in Wii U with a Switch app?

I think a key difference is DLC/patches is far more accepted by their userbase now, and all those service games will definately get a successor build, which then opens up the question of how they handle the user bases. I think they're mostly all cross play enable now now so may not be a huge issue and the new Switch version will just be treated as a new platform (Apex, Overwatch, Fortnite, Warframe, Paladins, Dauntless) but i don't play all of them to know what's what and or if there's service games only hosting a Switch specific ecosystem.
These game host all platforms at the same time.

You play with PC and other consoles users with your Switch.
 
Not ruling anything out after Nintendo added an additional CPU boost mode for BotW loading times more than two years into the Switch.
 
I wonder if there exists games with larger update partitions than the game file.
Do you mean that the mandatory update takes up more than what is included in the cartridge? Because in that case there are all the NBA games.


And if the question is: can a cartridge support several different SKUs at the same time? It can too. For example, there is the Metro collection, the Bioshock collection, the Ori collection, the GTA trilogy, the Ninja Gaiden collection or the Star Wars double pack.
 
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I severely doubt cross-generation titles will use seperate Game Cards. I also doubt we'll see any change to the Game Cards other than pin changes in the region of the Game Card PCB already visible from the outside.

Like today, if a Switch [REDACTED] game can't fit everything on the card, it can fit the rest on the eShop servers. That's how Xbox deals with it.

I really don't think it's that big a deal - or that big a hurdle. There just wasn't that much of a stink made about New 3DS cards fitting 3DS, or DSi Cards in DS.
In fact, what you mention already happens in certain Switch physical games.
For example, the GTA trilogy includes all three SKUs on the cartridge, but only two of them are complete, the third only includes a few MB verification and requires you to download the entire game as an "update".
 
What do the latest leaks and credible rumors put the Switch 2 power at?
Between the PS4 and PS4 Pro in raw power, but being a newer architecture and having DLSS, probably in realm of a slow PS5, rather than a fast PS4.

Closest to the Xbox Series S. Probably designed to be, to some extent, a console where Gen 9 games are possible at the baseline.
 
In fact, what you mention already happens in certain Switch physical games.
For example, the GTA trilogy includes all three SKUs on the cartridge, but only two of them are complete, the third only includes a few MB verification and requires you to download the entire game as an "update".
Why would they even be seperate SKUs, honestly? But yeah, I imagine a lot of them will have the full "base" Switch game playable on all models, but prompt an "update" for the enhancements if you're on a Switch [REDACTED] and connected to the internet, unless they could fit those enhancements onto the Game Card.

I think it's very likely Mario Kart 8 Deluxe with its many production runs will probably have its final print run be all the BCP course data + enhancements.
 
Why would they even be seperate SKUs, honestly? But yeah, I imagine a lot of them will have the full "base" Switch game playable on all models, but prompt an "update" for the enhancements if you're on a Switch [REDACTED] and connected to the internet, unless they could fit those enhancements onto the Game Card.

I think it's very likely Mario Kart 8 Deluxe with its many production runs will probably have its final print run be all the BCP course data + enhancements.
Well, I'm just saying that the Switch cartridges already handle the situation similar to Xbox Series X where there can be several versions in one physical release (with some of these versions and/or configurations being downloads associated with the disc/cartridge)
 
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Well, I'm just saying that the Switch cartridges already handle the situation similar to Xbox Series X where there can be several versions in one physical release (with some of these versions and/or configurations being downloads associated with the disc/cartridge)
Ag, sorry if I misunderstood, yes, it can! Nintendo is more technically competent than some give them credit for I feel.
 
Ag, sorry if I misunderstood, yes, it can! Nintendo is more technically competent than some give them credit for I feel.

Now that I remember, there are also certain games like Grid autosport that allow you to download optional textures graphical enhancement packs from the eshop.
So the optional download of improvements is something that has been done before.

And that is not exactly complicated, it would be adding other configuration profiles along with the Switch portable and dock.
 
Now that I remember, there are also certain games like Grid autosport that allow you to download optional textures graphical enhancement packs from the eshop.
So the optional download of improvements is something that has been done before.

And that is not exactly complicated, it would be adding other configuration profiles along with the Switch portable and dock.
It's definitely more complicated but Nintendo Switch as a platform is designed with that flexibility in mind already and by far has the most flexible OS. I think it might be the first Nintendo console where games are really running within a sandbox within an OS, rather than running on bare metal. NVN gives developers a very "close to the metal" level of efficiency but with some of the benefits of abstraction. I am certain that forehthought will benefit them going into the next generation, and it's clear from an operating system having the higher memory capacity and other elements supported alongside the current Switch that Nintendo is developing the OS in parallel on both devices. Why wouldn't they do that with their games and tools?
 
It's definitely more complicated but Nintendo Switch as a platform is designed with that flexibility in mind already and by far has the most flexible OS. I think it might be the first Nintendo console where games are really running within a sandbox within an OS, rather than running on bare metal. NVN gives developers a very "close to the metal" level of efficiency but with some of the benefits of abstraction. I am certain that forehthought will benefit them going into the next generation, and it's clear from an operating system having the higher memory capacity and other elements supported alongside the current Switch that Nintendo is developing the OS in parallel on both devices. Why wouldn't they do that with their games and tools?

currently all platforms handle this level of flexibility due to the existence of different configurations within the same generation.

The typical switch dock-umdocked example basically consists of that, or PS4 games and their configurations for PS4Pro. Or the Xbox SeriesS-SeriesX configurations

I would not really have many doubts about it, managing different configurations is something that already happens.
 
currently all platforms handle this level of flexibility due to the existence of different configurations within the same generation.

The typical switch dock-umdocked example basically consists of that, or PS4 games and their configurations for PS4Pro. Or the Xbox SeriesS-SeriesX configurations

I would not really have many doubts about it, managing different configurations is something that already happens.
True, but there's a difference between adjusting LODs, resolution, and effects like what happens with docking and undocking, and a difference in actual assets.

However, as I said, for some games, I think the changes will be more comparable to docked and undocked play, and those especially should be very manageable.
 
I'm terms of new features, something I'd really like to see would be Nintendo Switch Online integration for backwards compatibility - obviously it'll work normally, but what I mean is for games on Switch, running on Switch [REDACTED] will mean a lot of processor and memory headroom, and for Switch games that only support local play, like Pikmin 3 Deluxe and shockingly, Kirby's Return to Dreamland Deluxe (that one is just mind bogglingly stupid to me.), it could implement NSO retro game-like "online local play".
 
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True, but there's a difference between adjusting LODs, resolution, and effects like what happens with docking and undocking, and a difference in actual assets.

However, as I said, for some games, I think the changes will be more comparable to docked and undocked play, and those especially should be very manageable.
There are games where the assets change. They are not firsts, there are thirds, but there are. For example, Ori and the will of the wisps uses lower resolution textures on undocked compared to the dock.

Plus they would still be settings for the new device, not the old one. Comparable to, for example, the differences between PS4 and PS4pro, where one uses 4K textures in some games, and the other does not. You'll never see those textures or settings on your basic PS4, but they're there, waiting for you when you plug in your PS4pro or PS5.
 
Between the PS4 and PS4 Pro in raw power, but being a newer architecture and having DLSS, probably in realm of a slow PS5, rather than a fast PS4.

Closest to the Xbox Series S. Probably designed to be, to some extent, a console where Gen 9 games are possible at the baseline.
So gap from Switch 2 to Series S is still expected to be a significantly smaller gap from Switch to PS4/X1. In the end, that’s probably all that matters.
 
So gap from Switch 2 to Series S is still expected to be a significantly smaller gap from Switch to PS4/X1. In the end, that’s probably all that matters.
Pretty much. It's likely that it'll target higher resolutions and have more memory than Series S, but will have other limitations Series S doesn't have.
 
IMO the biggest Switch weakness is textures.
Ground always stands out as looking terrible, see the rocks in the beautiful botw
I wouldn't call the rocks particularly great. I would like to see games like Zelda take on some more advanced texturing techniques like virtual textures to increase texture quality without increasing ram usage. same for virtualized shadows and geometry. but maybe take it one step at a time. maybe better geometry first as they could, theoretically, reduce the size of titled textures because the detail is in the geo
 
The biggest visual flaw in BOTW to me is the heavily compressed looking normal maps
Not having to be so aggressively conservative in texture quality will be a welcome change
 
You think it will be more like how Wii was handled in Wii U with a Switch app?

I think a key difference is DLC/patches is far more accepted by their userbase now, and all those service games will definately get a successor build,
I see no reason they wouldn't. They value evergreens. Enhancements help evergreens. They're not some zero sum game that are a pure loss leader, they're extra incentive to buy a game that the Switch [Redacted] can already play.
So you're still not convinced that Nintendo likes money?
I didn't mean to post this - it was an in progress post. So I apologize for the novel, but I want to back up that seemingly random assertion.

To Be Clear: I'm not arguing against a cross-gen period or enhanced titles. I'm saying that I'm not convinced. I have multiple separate thoughts, but this is the bullet point version
  1. Enhanced titles got in our heads when a Pro-like strategy seemed inevitable. That moment has passed
  2. The leaked platform isn't built for "enhanced" titles, it's built for power, and perhaps cross-gen
  3. Drake's biggest competitor isn't PS5 or Xbox Series, it's Switch
  4. Cross-gen titles dilute a successor's appeal in order to push more software units
  5. Nintendo's needs around cross-gen now are not the same as Sony and Microsoft's needs 2 years ago

Thought number one: Pro is off the table.

This thread has a lot of assumptional inertia. That Nintendo would enhance their evergreen titles and release a bunch of cross-gen titles is an assumption that was built up when we were speculating on hardware that we now know isn't coming.

"Imminent Switch Pro" chatter started to seem like a real thing in 2021. The Switch was five years old, and the software reports from insiders were saying things like "some small exclusives". Meanwhile there were multiple announced but undated pieces of major Switch software, and rumors about plenty more.

The only way that all made sense was if this new hardware was marketed as an iterative upgrade with continued support for the next device. And that mindset persisted as long as we were looking at late 2022-early 2023 as a release window.

All of that is blown up now. We have no rumored timeline for release, giving Nintendo any marketing window they want. We don't have a long run of future software titles announced to look forward to indicating long support for the base hardware, and the "small exclusives" are now (supposedly) cancelled.

I'm not here to speculate on what happened, I'm merely here to say that the only way the previous set of pieces fit together was if Nintendo was hard committed to cross-gen. That is no longer true, but the assumption of a cross-gen commitment has lingered.

I'm not saying that a cross-gen period will or won't exist. Just that it has become an unexamined assumption based on data that is now known not-true.

Thought number two: The leaked hardware and software are not a good platform for "enhanced" games

Switch code running on Drake will almost definitely do so via virtualization. While Nintendo might allow those virtualized clocks to "run faster" than the Switch, as least some of Drake's extra power will be used just doing the virtualization. How much extra power would actually be available is kinda up in the air.

Horizon doesn't support a dlopen() like mechanism for runtime linking, a security and performance choice they are unlikely to reverse. Tensor and RT cores require shader microcode that doesn't run on Switch. Because of this, binaries which can run on both systems almost definitely can't "break out" of the virtualization space and execute RT or DLSS, or load up a separate rendering backend.

NVN2, conversely won't run on Switch either, even if the game doesn't use DLSS or RT. NVN bakes in at compile time a number of assumptions about the hardware, including privileged shaders which initialize the GPU.

If you want to support RT, DLSS, or even be to just use the whole raster performance and CPU power of Drake, you cant just do an "enhanced" version of the game. You need to ship a Drake binary and a Switch binary, assuming that Nintendo even provides a mechanism for loading one or the other.

But a Drake version will also need its own set of compiled shaders. It will probably want higher resolution assets, and if the FDE works like similar hardware in other systems, it will perform best if those assets are packed in a non-backwards compatible way.

In other words: "enhanced" games will either be kinda weaksauce, or have to incur most of the development costs of a more elaborate cross-gen title.

Thought number three: First party cross-gen isn't necessarily a win.

The long cross-gen period for Sony and Microsoft isn't a given for Nintendo. Sony wanted to jump to PS5 but was held back for external reasons. MS's strategy has shifted such that clear console generations don't serve it. Both companies were coming off a period where they had tapped their early adopters by selling them a beefier piece of hardware not that long ago.

Nintendo's biggest competitor for REDACTED isn't PS5 or Series S|X - it's the Switch. Cross-gen titles will have a larger install base to target, but they will not drive sales to anything but the most enthusiast adopter who wants to play The Best Experience - the exact people most likely to buy the new hardware anyway. And while the Switch install base is huge, early exclusives have incredible attach rates, as they're the only software early adopters have access to that shows off the power of their device.

Nintendo will need to balance the use of exclusives to drive adoption long term, versus the need to make short term sales to the larger install base. Of the 12-15 games a year that Nintendo publishes, what is the right number to be available on both systems? And which games, for how many years?

There is a loud argument between the folks who think that it's dead obvious that Mario Kart 8 will get an enhanced edition, and the folks who think that REDACTED is dead in the water if it doesn't launch with MK:X, an a second debate rages about if it is even possible to do a sequel to Smash Ultimate.

I don't know the answer, but Nintendo can move a lot of software units just by publishing a Pokemon game on Switch. On the other hand, 3D World did pretty good even on the Wii U. REDACTED needs a Mario sized exclusive more than Mario needs a Switch sized install base.

I don't have a clear idea of what Nintendo's strategy will be. But I think our assumptions about cross-gen haven't been reconsidered in the last few months, I don't see indications in the leaked platform that Nintendo is prioritizing enhanced titles, and that the economics of cross-gen versus exclusives aren't clear when the survival of your company depends on the success of your console
 
Not ruling anything out after Nintendo added an additional CPU boost mode for BotW loading times more than two years into the Switch.
If you're talking about storage/ gamecard speeds, it probably wouldn't make sense to have dedicated file decompression hardware, unless its substantially faster than switch imo.
 
If you're talking about storage/ gamecard speeds, it probably wouldn't make sense to have dedicated file decompression hardware, unless its substantially faster than switch imo.

No, I'm referring to Switch 2 enhancements for Switch 1 games.
 
"Imminent Switch Pro" chatter started to seem like a real thing in 2021. The Switch was five years old, and the software reports from insiders were saying things like "some small exclusives". Meanwhile there were multiple announced but undated pieces of major Switch software, and rumors about plenty more.
i now think we misinterpreted what was just a preparation to have software to launch while most teams moved on to next hardware, to not have a drought period between 2 platforms.

I'm not here to speculate on what happened, I'm merely here to say that the only way the previous set of pieces fit together was if Nintendo was hard committed to cross-gen. That is no longer true, but the assumption of a cross-gen commitment has lingered.
same
NVN2, conversely won't run on Switch either, even if the game doesn't use DLSS or RT. NVN bakes in at compile time a number of assumptions about the hardware, including privileged shaders which initialize the GPU.
oh, did not know that. That does make it hard to switch dynamically, yet not impossible with delivering 2 versions and checking on startup (or installation) what version to load?
If you want to support RT, DLSS, or even be to just use the whole raster performance and CPU power of Drake, you cant just do an "enhanced" version of the game. You need to ship a Drake binary and a Switch binary, assuming that Nintendo even provides a mechanism for loading one or the other.
yeah ok, my assumption was that parts of the code would be different, and that the goal would be to load different dlls depending on target platform.
But a Drake version will also need its own set of compiled shaders. It will probably want higher resolution assets, and if the FDE works like similar hardware in other systems, it will perform best if those assets are packed in a non-backwards compatible way.
Here i assumed that for old games either a recompiled version would be downloaded , or the specific asset packages exchanged.
In other words: "enhanced" games will either be kinda weaksauce, or have to incur most of the development costs of a more elaborate cross-gen title.
Maybe im just talking for myself, but my assumption was always, that there would be 2 types of enhanced games:
a)simple boot cause of higher processing speed -> stable instead of wonky framerate, dynamic resolution keeping high for more time.
b) an enhanced version that would need the developer to exchange assets, and add some routines/shaders to enhance the experience.

Same as with the pro consoles, at the start we had the discussion which games would get a "pro" patch, it was not that games magically looked better, but we did see stability with those that did struggle on the base consoles.

The development kost would still be faaaar from a classic "port",
and especially nintendo would want to invest that money,
with them being able to keep selling the evergreens, and having more incentive for people to move to the platform early on.
Thought number three: First party cross-gen isn't necessarily a win.
that...is true. This on the other hand plays even more in the "enhanced" strategy:
filling out the launch period with some enhanced patches and promoting them with comparison trailers can fill the gaps between releases till Drake has a healthy exclusive library to incentive people to move earlier. They could even combine those announcements for enhancement with trailers for Sequels.
Say announcing "Mario Odyssey 2" for holiday 2024, "but you can play Odyssey today after the direct in glorious HDR 4k! on drake!" or something. (4k -> reconstructed from 1080, but they would not differentiate)
 
So gap from Switch 2 to Series S is still expected to be a significantly smaller gap from Switch to PS4/X1. In the end, that’s probably all that matters.
Yes. But if Nintendo waits a little longer to release this new console, soon we should make the comparison with PS6 and Series Y... 😅
 
The crossgen games I expect are the Mario Sports series, Mario Party and a number of other AA efforts that don't sell based on technical prowess (the cash cows, not the system sellers). In all of these cases, a cross gen support doesn't really need to be anything more than a flag that sets the resolution higher.

The effort required to develop and distribute better assets or a native version sounds better spent elsewhere. Some Switch AAA games may get an update available only on the next console, but I expect it to be the exception, rather than the rule.

I hope some dataminers will look closely at the eshop updates that Nintendo will release once they drop WiiU and 3ds support. If there will be any leaks they'll come from there
 
Horizon doesn't support a dlopen() like mechanism for runtime linking, a security and performance choice they are unlikely to reverse.
I don't think this is actually true. My understanding was that NRO files were dynamic libraries.

More generally, cross gen is going to happen because Nintendo isn't going to just stop making Switch games. They only drop a platform immediately when it's already dead or they're running short on resources. How well they utilize the new hardware isn't important. It rarely is for cross-gen games.
 
A cross gen period is an unchallenged assumption because it is an industry standard.

Including for Nintendo.

Fin.
While cross gen period will happen,
the initial thought was all first party on switch, with enhancements for drake.
By now (i assume) nobody believes that anymore, but there will be for sure cross releases für a while. But those will be less "ps4-ps4 pro" releases, developed for Ps4 and patched with higher resolution/framerate for pro, but instead games on the edge of what switch can do while taking into account specific strengths of drake, so more like Ps4-ps5 cross gen.

Im not against it. The old sentiment was just: pro releases, and 2 years of cross gen and only then they start releasing drake exclusives.
 
While cross gen period will happen,
the initial thought was all first party on switch, with enhancements for drake.
By now (i assume) nobody believes that anymore, but there will be for sure cross releases für a while. But those will be less "ps4-ps4 pro" releases, developed for Ps4 and patched with higher resolution/framerate for pro, but instead games on the edge of what switch can do while taking into account specific strengths of drake, so more like Ps4-ps5 cross gen.

Im not against it. The old sentiment was just: pro releases, and 2 years of cross gen and only then they start releasing drake exclusives.
I think the PS4-PS5 cross-gen comparison is extremely apt.
 
At this point I don’t think Nintendo will do an extended cross gen period. Drake is much more powerful relative to drake than, say PS5 is to PS4, and Nintendo expects their games to sell for a long time. I’d say expect Nintendo to stop making switch games way sooner than we expected.
 
Hello all,

I read in a Spanish website (Nintenduo I think) that th e new firmware makes some sort of mention to Nintendos succesor. Can anyone confirm is this true? I assume that if true the succesor is closer to release...

Here is the link:

 
Hello all,

I read in a Spanish website (Nintenduo I think) that th e new firmware makes some sort of mention to Nintendos succesor. Can anyone confirm is this true? I assume that if true the succesor is closer to release...

Here is the link:

Well, its clickbait.

If you read last few pages some users give a good breakdown of the new update (and the previous ones). They are just making the OS future-proof and of course it relates to the next Switch whenever it goes out.
 
Hello all,

I read in a Spanish website (Nintenduo I think) that th e new firmware makes some sort of mention to Nintendos succesor. Can anyone confirm is this true? I assume that if true the succesor is closer to release...

Here is the link:



We've had references to new hardware since 12.0.0, but yes, there's definitely been more concrete findings as of late. 16.0.0 added support for RAM above 8GB and new CPU thread management system. Both of these are unnecessary for any Nintendo consoles currently on the market, and thus imply Nintendo is preparing for a new system in earnest.
 
At this point I don’t think Nintendo will do an extended cross gen period. Drake is much more powerful relative to drake than, say PS5 is to PS4, and Nintendo expects their games to sell for a long time. I’d say expect Nintendo to stop making switch games way sooner than we expected.
For Nintendo to stop making Switch games that early into their successor's life would undoubtedly hurt their plans for a smooth transition, especially since the Switch has a huge install base.
 
I didn't mean to post this - it was an in progress post. So I apologize for the novel, but I want to back up that seemingly random assertion.

To Be Clear: I'm not arguing against a cross-gen period or enhanced titles. I'm saying that I'm not convinced. I have multiple separate thoughts, but this is the bullet point version
  1. Enhanced titles got in our heads when a Pro-like strategy seemed inevitable. That moment has passed
  2. The leaked platform isn't built for "enhanced" titles, it's built for power, and perhaps cross-gen
  3. Drake's biggest competitor isn't PS5 or Xbox Series, it's Switch
  4. Cross-gen titles dilute a successor's appeal in order to push more software units
  5. Nintendo's needs around cross-gen now are not the same as Sony and Microsoft's needs 2 years ago

Thought number one: Pro is off the table.

This thread has a lot of assumptional inertia. That Nintendo would enhance their evergreen titles and release a bunch of cross-gen titles is an assumption that was built up when we were speculating on hardware that we now know isn't coming.

"Imminent Switch Pro" chatter started to seem like a real thing in 2021. The Switch was five years old, and the software reports from insiders were saying things like "some small exclusives". Meanwhile there were multiple announced but undated pieces of major Switch software, and rumors about plenty more.

The only way that all made sense was if this new hardware was marketed as an iterative upgrade with continued support for the next device. And that mindset persisted as long as we were looking at late 2022-early 2023 as a release window.

All of that is blown up now. We have no rumored timeline for release, giving Nintendo any marketing window they want. We don't have a long run of future software titles announced to look forward to indicating long support for the base hardware, and the "small exclusives" are now (supposedly) cancelled.

I'm not here to speculate on what happened, I'm merely here to say that the only way the previous set of pieces fit together was if Nintendo was hard committed to cross-gen. That is no longer true, but the assumption of a cross-gen commitment has lingered.

I'm not saying that a cross-gen period will or won't exist. Just that it has become an unexamined assumption based on data that is now known not-true.

Thought number two: The leaked hardware and software are not a good platform for "enhanced" games

Switch code running on Drake will almost definitely do so via virtualization. While Nintendo might allow those virtualized clocks to "run faster" than the Switch, as least some of Drake's extra power will be used just doing the virtualization. How much extra power would actually be available is kinda up in the air.

Horizon doesn't support a dlopen() like mechanism for runtime linking, a security and performance choice they are unlikely to reverse. Tensor and RT cores require shader microcode that doesn't run on Switch. Because of this, binaries which can run on both systems almost definitely can't "break out" of the virtualization space and execute RT or DLSS, or load up a separate rendering backend.

NVN2, conversely won't run on Switch either, even if the game doesn't use DLSS or RT. NVN bakes in at compile time a number of assumptions about the hardware, including privileged shaders which initialize the GPU.

If you want to support RT, DLSS, or even be to just use the whole raster performance and CPU power of Drake, you cant just do an "enhanced" version of the game. You need to ship a Drake binary and a Switch binary, assuming that Nintendo even provides a mechanism for loading one or the other.

But a Drake version will also need its own set of compiled shaders. It will probably want higher resolution assets, and if the FDE works like similar hardware in other systems, it will perform best if those assets are packed in a non-backwards compatible way.

In other words: "enhanced" games will either be kinda weaksauce, or have to incur most of the development costs of a more elaborate cross-gen title.

Thought number three: First party cross-gen isn't necessarily a win.

The long cross-gen period for Sony and Microsoft isn't a given for Nintendo. Sony wanted to jump to PS5 but was held back for external reasons. MS's strategy has shifted such that clear console generations don't serve it. Both companies were coming off a period where they had tapped their early adopters by selling them a beefier piece of hardware not that long ago.

Nintendo's biggest competitor for REDACTED isn't PS5 or Series S|X - it's the Switch. Cross-gen titles will have a larger install base to target, but they will not drive sales to anything but the most enthusiast adopter who wants to play The Best Experience - the exact people most likely to buy the new hardware anyway. And while the Switch install base is huge, early exclusives have incredible attach rates, as they're the only software early adopters have access to that shows off the power of their device.

Nintendo will need to balance the use of exclusives to drive adoption long term, versus the need to make short term sales to the larger install base. Of the 12-15 games a year that Nintendo publishes, what is the right number to be available on both systems? And which games, for how many years?

There is a loud argument between the folks who think that it's dead obvious that Mario Kart 8 will get an enhanced edition, and the folks who think that REDACTED is dead in the water if it doesn't launch with MK:X, an a second debate rages about if it is even possible to do a sequel to Smash Ultimate.

I don't know the answer, but Nintendo can move a lot of software units just by publishing a Pokemon game on Switch. On the other hand, 3D World did pretty good even on the Wii U. REDACTED needs a Mario sized exclusive more than Mario needs a Switch sized install base.

I don't have a clear idea of what Nintendo's strategy will be. But I think our assumptions about cross-gen haven't been reconsidered in the last few months, I don't see indications in the leaked platform that Nintendo is prioritizing enhanced titles, and that the economics of cross-gen versus exclusives aren't clear when the survival of your company depends on the success of your console
I believe that some big titles will be exclusive to REDACTED, but most games from the first almost 2 years will be crossgen.
Nintendo usually releases 2 big games in the year (when not, just one), and they are the ones that sell consoles, Mario 3D, pokémon, Zelda, Animal Crossing, Mario Kart, Smash, there is no reason for these franchises to be crossgen, but smaller titles like Kirby, Donkey Kong, Metroid, Fire Emblem, Mario Spin-ofs and etc have no reason not to be released on the OG switch if that's possible.
We know that most likely Switch 2 will be sold out in stores for at least a year, that's even if it doesn't have exclusive titles, so why leave games that generally don't sell hardware tied to a much smaller installed base?
About enhanced versions I believe that there will be, that through patches it will be possible to play some games in 4K, not all, until MK9 I believe it comes out in the first 3 months of new gen and it wouldn't make sense for you to create rivalry between it and MK8DX, already enhanced versions in the sense of new assets only for very select titles that were already developed with new hardware in mind, I believe TotK and MP4 belong in that category.
 
Uhh, Nero's character model looks a billion times better than Bayonetta's, lol. The lighting and textures aren't even close either. (some Bayonetta 3 spoilers in the video comparison)


the model seems somewhat better, but its the textures and the LOD for the surroundings that stands out to me.
 
Thought number one: Pro is off the table.
Broadly I agree. At the moment we don’t know how Nintendo will position the Switch 2 though. If the Switch 2 is going to occupy a higher pricing tier while the OLED and Lite remain, its role in the market wouldn’t be too dissimilar to a “Pro”.

Thought number two: The leaked hardware and software are not a good platform for “enhanced” games
1. On the Switch 2 we don’t know for sure whether runtime linking won’t be utilized, or shaders will still be pre-compiled. You are most likely right that those policies may continue, but the opposite would make supporting both Switch 1 and 2 less difficult.

2. Even if those policies won’t change, the legacy games (probably need patching) can still harness the power of Drake if the virtualized Switch 1 is spec’d like a “Pro” with higher performance profiles; if the virtual Switch Pro can render, say, BotW at 1440p/60fps, it’d be enough of a upgrade. Yes, DLSS and RT won’t be possible in the virtual machine, but the goal here is only to run legacy games better.

Thought number three: First party cross-gen isn’t necessarily a win.
As mentioned above, we don’t know how the Switch 2 will be positioned in the market, therefore it isn’t a given that Switch 1 will be the “biggest competitor” of Switch 2. Considering that a) half of Nintendo’s gross profit is from software sales, b) 1st party software sell-through is at all time high, and c) annual playing users is also at all time high, I don’t think that Nintendo would quickly abandon the Switch 1 install base in order to sell more Switch 2 hardware.

The presumption that a new hardware needs exclusive titles to sell might not be true in today’s environment. PS5 is selling well in Japan despite low software sales (it can’t be all attributed to scalpers). Consumers are buying new gens of smartphone and PC not because of any exclusive software. And Switch OLED, being the #1 selling model, also proves that a newer, more premium hardware itself is enough to drive sales. That’s the power of a platform, and prematurely bisecting the install base may undermine that.
 
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