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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (New Staff Post, Please read)

I didn’t know this, do you have any examples of this?
In short they have a half-assed understanding of the specs of gaming consoles, and have been accused of rebellion caused by Nintendo fans on multiple occasions, and they're not exactly a competent digital blogger, which is why I'm disgusted to see people quoting their articles all the time in that thread.
 
One thing about power consumption is that not every game hammers the system the same way even if the clocks are the same.

From my experience monitoring games on my V1, although MK8DX uses the same 460 MHz profile than Mortal Kombat 11, the former draws an avg of 5.8W (fan at 25%) while the latter stays at 6.8W (fan at 30%) [max brightness, max volume, wi-fi & BT off, joy-cons fully charged]

So, from my experience, the Switch isn't a 9W machine. I never saw this power consumption actually. MK11 is one of the most taxing games on Switch and I still get 2h21min.

So, with a 6.8W of power consumption, I imagine that the SoC is using ~4W. Now, if Drake has 4.2W (660 MHz) for the GPU and 2W for the CPU (~1.7GHz going by the Jetson Tool and cutting it in half for 4N), and 4W for the rest of the system (specially with the ~1.8" bigger screen compared with the V1), then we would have 10.2W. With have an increase of 50% in power consumption. We would need at least a 6465 mAh battery to have the same battery life (and this is all supposing that the 4.2W figure for the GPU is the max power draw at full usage)

I can't see Nintendo offering a worse battery life than the V1, and I also don't think they were happy with the more demanding games having ~2h25min of battery life. IF they could fit a 7500 mAh (3.7v) in there, that would help a bit.

Anyway, just napkin math to kill the time lol (not much happening today at the office)


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Talking about killing time (and napkin math), I just got my hands on a notebook from a coworker. When he told me it had a 4050 I had to ask to test it. And I did, with two games that shall not be named.

I set the TGP to 45W. Both games were using 98%~100% of the GPU. The average clock was at 2GHz. This GPU is 3 times bigger than Drake. I don't know if we can just divide by 3 to have an approximate idea of power consumption in a 12 SM GPU. I imagine the GDDR6 was drawing ~5W, so if we divide 40 by... 2.5 maybe? That's 16W for a constant 2GHz clock. I just thought it was interesting to share...


Also, that frame generation is another black magic from Nvidia. I couldn't tell the difference.
 
Something is going on when it comes to Nintendo stock price recently:


Nintendo stock have jumped back after declining for a few months on the back of Switch 2 delay news. Is the stock market factoring in Switch 2 reveal soonish?
No the stock price started to rise late last year with ahead of new console announcements expectations. That then reversed once the delay became known, and then dropped further after the recent earnings release essentially confirmed no release in the current FY(from the investor perspective). Now the bad news and negative outlook is priced in and people are buying again. I think there's still going to be downward pressure on the stock for a while though.

Of note, Nintendo was somewhat candid on plans for Nintendo Pictures, which is a legitimate growth opportunity for the company, so that may be having some effect.
 
@Shareholder Chad
Bat-signal_1989_film.jpg

THE BAT SIGNAL….

Ah yes, Nintendo’s stock price rise. Just a summary of the events:

The day of Nintendo’s financial briefing we saw it largely go flat then the next day when the Q/A was released it sunk quite a bit then rebounded like a bat out of hell fully reversing its loss from the initial reaction of the briefing.

What we are seeing is something I outlined in a post a few months ago. The downtrend having a significant pullback (or dead cat bounce) at around 12 to around 13.50. (I have a picture of the chart in an old post I made somewhere). In my opinion and per my strategies, We should see it go back down anytime. If not, then moon.

It should be stated that a lot of stocks are popping off. Especially trash like GME and AMC. If this isn’t a flash in the pan then we could see inflation roar back.

As for what I think this means, I’d say investors got wind of Switch 2 talk and decided to position themselves. A lot of us are gonna think “You won’t fool me twice” and not buy expecting an announcement in the fall. Some are positioning thinking we may get a full announcement in late June (<<. >>).
 
One thing about power consumption is that not every game hammers the system the same way even if the clocks are the same.

From my experience monitoring games on my V1, although MK8DX uses the same 460 MHz profile than Mortal Kombat 11, the former draws an avg of 5.8W (fan at 25%) while the latter stays at 6.8W (fan at 30%) [max brightness, max volume, wi-fi & BT off, joy-cons fully charged]

So, from my experience, the Switch isn't a 9W machine. I never saw this power consumption actually. MK11 is one of the most taxing games on Switch and I still get 2h21min.

So, with a 6.8W of power consumption, I imagine that the SoC is using ~4W. Now, if Drake has 4.2W (660 MHz) for the GPU and 2W for the CPU (~1.7GHz going by the Jetson Tool and cutting it in half for 4N), and 4W for the rest of the system (specially with the ~1.8" bigger screen compared with the V1), then we would have 10.2W. With have an increase of 50% in power consumption. We would need at least a 6465 mAh battery to have the same battery life (and this is all supposing that the 4.2W figure for the GPU is the max power draw at full usage)

I can't see Nintendo offering a worse battery life than the V1, and I also don't think they were happy with the more demanding games having ~2h25min of battery life. IF they could fit a 7500 mAh (3.7v) in there, that would help a bit.

Anyway, just napkin math to kill the time lol (not much happening today at the office)


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Talking about killing time (and napkin math), I just got my hands on a notebook from a coworker. When he told me it had a 4050 I had to ask to test it. And I did, with two games that shall not be named.

I set the TGP to 45W. Both games were using 98%~100% of the GPU. The average clock was at 2GHz. This GPU is 3 times bigger than Drake. I don't know if we can just divide by 3 to have an approximate idea of power consumption in a 12 SM GPU. I imagine the GDDR6 was drawing ~5W, so if we divide 40 by... 2.5 maybe? That's 16W for a constant 2GHz clock. I just thought it was interesting to share...


Also, that frame generation is another black magic from Nvidia. I couldn't tell the difference.
Seems pretty good. Wattage doesn’t scale linearly with clocks, but even if it would, it’d draw 4 Watt with 500 mhz, which is what‘s expected and since wattage doesn’t scale linearly it probably‘ll be even lower.
 
No the stock price started to rise late last year with ahead of new console announcements expectations. That then reversed once the delay became known, and then dropped further after the recent earnings release essentially confirmed no release in the current FY(from the investor perspective). Now the bad news and negative outlook is priced in and people are buying again. I think there's still going to be downward pressure on the stock for a while though.

Of note, Nintendo was somewhat candid on plans for Nintendo Pictures, which is a legitimate growth opportunity for the company, so that may be having some effect.

This guy gets it.
 
Aside from just general improvement, I'm hoping there is something new on the controllers. I think we've heard that there might be extra buttons on the back; or was that debunked? If they could make the scroll wheel bumpers a reality even if it's not completely mechanical, I'd be all for it. I've been waiting since pre-2017 for those Nintendo :<
 
Aside from just general improvement, I'm hoping there is something new on the controllers. I think we've heard that there might be extra buttons on the back; or was that debunked? If they could make the scroll wheel bumpers a reality even if it's not completely mechanical, I'd be all for it. I've been waiting since pre-2017 for those Nintendo :<
Yes, I've been waiting to know what kind of new gameplay is involved with the addition of the three new buttons.
 
Does limiting memory frequency make sense for power consumption?The experience of overclocking a PC makes me doubtful about this.
If the frequency difference is not significant, it's possible that the overall power consumption falls within the margin of error.
How much power saving can be achieved by reducing the frequency from 7500 to 5500?
 
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It should be stated that a lot of stocks are popping off. Especially trash like GME and AMC. If this isn’t a flash in the pan then we could see inflation roar back.
I don't think Nintendo's stock qualifies as "meme"-y enough to really be affected in the same light. This is only really from my understanding of the WSB situation back in Feb 2021, but meme stocks are generally low value stocks where the only real value come from shorting them into the ground but are from recognizable modern companies. While there's a lot of meme factor with people holding Nintendo stocks out of a vested interest in the company (we've seen that a few times), it's not really a similar situation nor do I think they'll be affected by GME and AMC suddenly appearing out of the woodwork again. They're just generally a decent well valued stock that casual participants in stock trading are reasonably into compared to the usual.
 
So, from my experience, the Switch isn't a 9W machine. I never saw this power consumption actually. MK11 is one of the most taxing games on Switch and I still get 2h21min.
And in fact it wouldn't even make sense with a 16Wh battery. My Erista at least fluctuates between 2~3 hours of gameplay until today.
 
How long do you guys think it will take for someone to hack/hard mod the Switch 2 this time around? I'm always surprised when I see how much potential the homebrew scene is able to get out of the Switch and I assume Switch 2 would be an incredible device to mod/hack.
 
Given what we know about the hardware so far, how does everyone feel this will effect game development for Nintendo?

I ask as this as someone I know believes that the new hardware has been designed and built just to play Switch games in 4K/60 and I can't fathom how they've come to this conclusion about a next gen system.
 
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How long do you guys think it will take for someone to hack/hard mod the Switch 2 this time around? I'm always surprised when I see how much potential the homebrew scene is able to get out of the Switch and I assume Switch 2 would be an incredible device to mod/hack.
I’m sure a hard mod will happen eventually but Fusée Gelée being so early because the TX1’s security was not the best is a major factor in why Switch homebrew is so good so early. I’d imagine it’ll be a a lot longer until something similar happens for Switch 2
 
I don't think Nintendo's stock qualifies as "meme"-y enough to really be affected in the same light. This is only really from my understanding of the WSB situation back in Feb 2021, but meme stocks are generally low value stocks where the only real value come from shorting them into the ground but are from recognizable modern companies. While there's a lot of meme factor with people holding Nintendo stocks out of a vested interest in the company (we've seen that a few times), it's not really a similar situation nor do I think they'll be affected by GME and AMC suddenly appearing out of the woodwork again. They're just generally a decent well valued stock that casual participants in stock trading are reasonably into compared to the usual.

The relationship is similar on a broad overview. Investors have cash on the sideline and when they do, at some point they start throwing it into riskier assets. GME and AMC is full risk but Nintendo is technically risk too (All growth stocks are). The source of rise is more similar than you think is what my point is. Though the result will be very different. Memes will be super volatile while Nintendo stock will either go up or down much more methodically.
 
How long do you guys think it will take for someone to hack/hard mod the Switch 2 this time around? I'm always surprised when I see how much potential the homebrew scene is able to get out of the Switch and I assume Switch 2 would be an incredible device to mod/hack.
Two months personally, while Nintendo and Nvidia are going to make sure people can't hard mod their successors, there's going to be enough overlap in the code of the OSS for people to be able to Homebrew fairly quickly.
 
Sales had been dry lately, hence the recent slump, but now that Switch 2 news is finally picking up people are expecting Nintendo stocks to skyrocket when Switch 2 drops

Sales are far from dry even its obvious that they are downside, they are still very good (last FY Switch sold almost 16m units) with great profit.
 
Just to add to the lite/v2/OLED discussion, we may not see a node shrink at all if the new console is manufactured on 4nm.

We have cars being released with solid state batteries in 2027/2028 which are going to triple battery density, reduce charging time drastically and increase durability.

Whilst there is no mention of them for smaller consumer electronics, it's only a matter of time. Nintendo may stick with the same SOC and simply go for a solid state battery at say 10000mah, if density triples as projected, battery life would double and the battery would be smaller than the original switch 2 if it gets a 5000mah battery, just an example.

As a lite wouldn't be Dockable they could cut back on cooling as well to reduce the consoles size and weight and cut costs in a few other places.

Some solid state batteries are omitting expensive materials such as cobalt and lithium so could end up less expensive as well in the long run.
 
If is possible that A78C with budget of 5-5.8W will be 3GHz or close to that?
images

ARM announced the A78 as using 1W for 3GHz on TSMC 5nm. The number could change for gaming workload or for 8 cores in a cluster or whatever they changed to grant that "C".

But assuming it's accurate, even if the OS is clocked lower, that's over 7W. With napkin math with power growing squarely, your power budget would get you ~2.6GHz (OS core underclocked as well).

Keep in mind that OG Switch CPU used ~1.8W, so 5.5W is more than 3x that.
 
images

ARM announced the A78 as using 1W for 3GHz on TSMC 5nm. The number could change for gaming workload or for 8 cores in a cluster or whatever they changed to grant that "C".

But assuming it's accurate, even if the OS is clocked lower, that's over 7W. With napkin math with power growing squarely, your power budget would get you ~2.6GHz (OS core underclocked as well).

Keep in mind that OG Switch CPU used ~1.8W, so 5.5W is more than 3x that.
how would it look on SEC8N presumably that totally blows the budget unless they use much lower clocks?
 
If is possible that A78C with budget of 5-5.8W will be 3GHz or close to that?

Even if it's on 4nm, it isn't going to be close to 3GHz. Hell, even on 4nm, it will probably be 2GHz max and even then I doubt it.

They aren't going to make a system that uses significantly more power hungry than the current Switch (I do expect a bigger battery this time around to offset increased power needs) and the current Switch is what, 8W or so in portable mode?

Some of your projections are way out to lunch.
 
My projected launch window for Switch 2
-Metroid Prime 4 (along with Switch version)
-Visions of Mana
- FC 2025
-Persona 3: Reloaded (with DLC)
-New Sonic game
-Mario Kart 10
my main 3rd party hope is elden ring I feel like that'd be in the announcement trailer like skyrim was for switch 1 (inshAllah)
 

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Yes, I've been waiting to know what kind of new gameplay is involved with the addition of the three new buttons.
I think the most likely purpose of the three buttons is for the one on the front of the controller to mute the microphone, and for the two on the back disengage the magnetic connection to the screen.

Besides the microphone, I don't think we're getting any new inputs.
 
I want software leaks, man
If you mean the system software...

Well, it'll probably be the same from what we know. Not that they can't reskin it but... I really doubt they'll do that. The same basic layout and functionality, with the addition perhaps of themes and enhanced network functionality and faster loading times.
 
I think the most likely purpose of the three buttons is for the one on the front of the controller to mute the microphone, and for the two on the back disengage the magnetic connection to the screen.

Besides the microphone, I don't think we're getting any new inputs.
The "magnet" button being separate to the existing "release" button honestly makes no sense at all. The two rear buttons are additional; the "release" button already exists. I think pack paddle style buttons are probably the play we'll see, but I don't discount the possibility of rear trackpads.
 
Just to add to the lite/v2/OLED discussion, we may not see a node shrink at all if the new console is manufactured on 4nm.

We have cars being released with solid state batteries in 2027/2028 which are going to triple battery density, reduce charging time drastically and increase durability.

Whilst there is no mention of them for smaller consumer electronics, it's only a matter of time. Nintendo may stick with the same SOC and simply go for a solid state battery at say 10000mah, if density triples as projected, battery life would double and the battery would be smaller than the original switch 2 if it gets a 5000mah battery, just an example.

As a lite wouldn't be Dockable they could cut back on cooling as well to reduce the consoles size and weight and cut costs in a few other places.

Some solid state batteries are omitting expensive materials such as cobalt and lithium so could end up less expensive as well in the long run.
I thought Toyota was pushing 2030 for their solid state batteries to be mass produced? Are there other makers as well that have mentioned 2027/2028?
 
Personally, i think Switch 2 is a good name, too. Yes, it's boring, but it delivers the message perfectly.

And, i mean going by all rumors, leaks and speculation, this is also simply was the system is. The next generation of Switch. Bigger, better.

So i would prefer Nintendo being boring for once.

If they ever leave the Switch form factor, or are able to "revolutionize" it to another "gimmick", then they can and should drop the Switch name for something new.



Nomura is belts, not bags.

Being that they're going for a "Switch Family" approach I don't think there's going to be any numbered iterations.

It will be thematically named.

This is going to look like how the DS progressed to 3DS/2DS and the New/XL/Litre type variants.

Muji being used seems to correlate with this.

The Switch Family is going to be a Muji. A blank slate brand they can make into whatever they need.
 
The "magnet" button being separate to the existing "release" button honestly makes no sense at all. The two rear buttons are additional; the "release" button already exists. I think pack paddle style buttons are probably the play we'll see, but I don't discount the possibility of rear trackpads.

I love the idea of rear trackpads. Has any touch sensitive surface been discounted by the shipping data or is there not enough info yet?
 
If you mean the system software...

Well, it'll probably be the same from what we know. Not that they can't reskin it but... I really doubt they'll do that. The same basic layout and functionality, with the addition perhaps of themes and enhanced network functionality and faster loading times.

Seeing some of the things (mostly themes, natch) homebrew has enabled is really cool. I just want themes and folders on the dashboard, Nintendo!
 
Just to add to the lite/v2/OLED discussion, we may not see a node shrink at all if the new console is manufactured on 4nm.

We have cars being released with solid state batteries in 2027/2028 which are going to triple battery density, reduce charging time drastically and increase durability.

Whilst there is no mention of them for smaller consumer electronics, it's only a matter of time. Nintendo may stick with the same SOC and simply go for a solid state battery at say 10000mah, if density triples as projected, battery life would double and the battery would be smaller than the original switch 2 if it gets a 5000mah battery, just an example.

As a lite wouldn't be Dockable they could cut back on cooling as well to reduce the consoles size and weight and cut costs in a few other places.

Some solid state batteries are omitting expensive materials such as cobalt and lithium so could end up less expensive as well in the long run.
I don't understand this. Why is a node shrink not possible? TSMC 20nm was introduced in Nov 2014, Switch released with TX1 in March 2017 - that's a 2.5 year gap. TSMC 16nm was introduced in Q3 2015, Switch Lite released with TX1 "Mariko" in Q3 2019, 4 year gap.

TSMC 4N began production sometime in 2022, and Switch 2 is supposedly going to use it in 2025 (was supposed to come out late this year) so a 2.5-3 year gap - close enough. TSMC 3nm, specifically 3E, began production last year. If a Switch 2 Lite/Mini/electric boogaloo comes out 2 years after the Switch 2 with a TSMC 3E chip, that's.....you guessed it, 4 years. And it's a genuine node shrink too, considering the 50% greater transistor density over 4N. I expect 3E production to be hella cheap in 2027 (remember, it's 4 year old tech by this point); we'll have left the nanometer scale and entered the age of the Angstrom.

Chip design/manufacturing/tape out all in all takes time. These decisions are made years in advance. I wouldn't be surprised if work on the node shrink of the T239 has already begun by now.

Unless my math isn't math-ing, care to explain what I'm missing here?
 
Seeing some of the things (mostly themes, natch) homebrew has enabled is really cool. I just want themes and folders on the dashboard, Nintendo!
I think a simple "groups" button on the home screen would be nice, along with moving "All Software" to the leftmost slot (rather than the rightmost). Perhaps these could be two rectangles. A large "All Software" button with a smaller one on top of it for "Groups", together they form one home screen icon square. Juuust to the left of the first icon.

That, themes, and moving Bluetooth settings to Quick Home are my only real "asks" for the UI.
 
I thought Toyota was pushing 2030 for their solid state batteries to be mass produced? Are there other makers as well that have mentioned 2027/2028?

2028 for their solid state batteries. I've read some cars could have them as early as 2027, it's going to be a solid state battery arms race now as a lot of car companies will want to be the first to have a 900 mile EV.

Curious which electronics manufacturer will be the first to launch a device with a solid state battery. Probably Apple.
 
My projected launch window for Switch 2
-Metroid Prime 4 (along with Switch version)
-Visions of Mana
- FC 2025
-Persona 3: Reloaded (with DLC)
-New Sonic game
-Mario Kart 10

I can see something like:

  • MP4 Fall 2024
  • MK10 and BOTW Remaster+Zelda's Fury Spring 2025
  • New Mario 3D Holiday 2025
  • New DK Game, Zelda OOT Remake (40th Anniversary) Spring 2026
  • Luigi Mansion 4 and New Smash Bros Fall 2026
  • New AC 2027
  • TOTK Remaster or Zelda 2D 2027
  • New Zelda 3D 2028
 
I don't understand this. Why is a node shrink not possible? TSMC 20nm was introduced in Nov 2014, Switch released with TX1 in March 2017 - that's a 2.5 year gap. TSMC 16nm was introduced in Q3 2015, Switch Lite released with TX1 "Mariko" in Q3 2019, 4 year gap.

TSMC 4N began production sometime in 2022, and Switch 2 is supposedly going to use it in 2025 (was supposed to come out late this year) so a 2.5-3 year gap - close enough. TSMC 3nm, specifically 3E, began production last year. If a Switch 2 Lite/Mini/electric boogaloo comes out 2 years after the Switch 2 with a TSMC 3E chip, that's.....you guessed it, 4 years. And it's a genuine node shrink too, considering the 50% greater transistor density over 4N. I expect 3E production to be hella cheap in 2027 (remember, it's 4 year old tech by this point); we'll have left the nanometer scale and entered the age of the Angstrom.

Chip design/manufacturing/tape out all in all takes time. These decisions are made years in advance. I wouldn't be surprised if work on the node shrink of the T239 has already begun by now.

Unless my math isn't math-ing, care to explain what I'm missing here?
Node shrinks are getting harder, more expensive and producing diminishing returns for that huge investment.

It's not so much that it's not possible but there could be cheaper alternatives to get similar results.

If the chip is already pretty efficient and solid state batteries end up being cheaper to manufacture, it could be a far more cost effective way for Nintendo to produce a model with enhanced battery life.

Redesigning a chip on a new node, going through tape out and testing etc doesn't come cheap, why do that when you can just slap a battery in with triple the density that costs less than your standard lithium ion battery.
 
I like nuSwitch; I read it in this thread way back but I think it's since fallen out of popularity lol

That logo change would have doubled Wii U X's lifetime sales right there.

How long have you been playing Xenoblade Chronicles X?

"For weeks."

Yes, for WiiX.

"Weeks."

Yes, but how long?

"I told you, for weeks!"
 
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