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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (New Staff Post, Please read)

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I continue to be unequipped to discuss process nodes but my thinking falls along these lines:
  1. This next system / chip was created under entirely different circumstances from any Nintendo system before it. Whatever comes next will be heavily informed by both their past mistakes (like the Wii and Wii U), as well as the lucrative, unprecedented and most notably, sustained, success of the Switch. It’s a recipe for throwing out preconceived notions around Nintendo decision making, whether they were correct in the first place or not. This is just me saying that “because Nintendo” shouldn’t be part of any legitimate discussion.
  2. In terms of following successes, they planned for a near decade lifespan of the Switch and have been rewarded for sticking to it. Part of that lengthy success was a window for iterating on the product via Mariko, resulting in the Lite and more attractive Redbox and OLED models. If Nintendo wants to keep the hardware feeling fresh for 8-10 years, they need headroom for ways to make a Lite or a Premium model. This isn’t novel - it happens with standard consoles, it happened with the Steam Deck OLED, and ROG Ally X just days ago.
Now I’ve heard Samsung 8NM is “dead end” and I’m not educated enough to really understand what exactly that means, but what I gleaned was that it’s not something that allows for the “easy win” die shrink like a Mariko or the Deck OLED on 6nm. Moving to a more efficient process is akin to efforts to get it on Samsung 8NM in the first place. Somebody else is welcome to correct this if it’s flawed.

It just doesn’t make sense to me that they’d have the luxury of the longest generation to plan and implement the next system, and opt to deliver hardware knowing that they had no headroom for iteration. This is planning out the next 10 or so years of Nintendos only platform on the market.

Couple this with Thraktor’s post/experiment proving Samsung 8NM being unviable for a hypothetical Switch (1) equivalent power envelope with all 12SM in use in handheld, and I just don’t see why it’s being humored any more.
 
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omniryu said:
Addendum: can play the same games for 20 bucks a year for online service instead of 80.

Oh lol. I did remember that for other places. What was it? Someone said we would get a Power 7 architecture and we would have Watson in our system.
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www.engadget.com

IBM puts Watson's brains in Nintendo Wii U

Nintendo's new console, the Wii U, was finally unveiled to the world today at E3 2011, and we got a glimpse of its graphical prowess at the company's keynote. Details were scarce about the IBM silicon Nintendo's new HD powerhouse was packing, but we did some digging to get a little more info...
www.engadget.com www.engadget.com
Engadget's Editor in Chief at the time posted a story citing IBM directly saying Espresso "packs the same processor technology found in Watson." Even IBM's press release at the time lied: "The all-new, Power-based microprocessor will pack some of IBM's most advanced technology" when it was just Wii x3. Why IBM felt the need to fuel the fire I have no idea.
 
Concernt said:
Two games is probably what I'd hope for, a nice balance of convenience and the use of storage and memory.

We know the trick can be done with ~8 games with just 2GB dedicated to the system software, on Series S. Two games should be manageable given what we know of NG Switch and would be a HUGE convenience boost.
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I heard it's 3 for least for Series X/S games, and maybe up to 5 for older generation games

www.pcmag.com

How to Switch Between Games With Quick Resume on Xbox Series X/S

The Xbox Series X and Series S allow you to quickly suspend and switch games without needing to relaunch or reload. Here's how to play multiple games at one time.
www.pcmag.com www.pcmag.com

This addition will probably be the best OS software feature.. Being able to quick resume between a physical and digital game (or two digital games) would be amazing
 
Random thought. It would be possible to have access to the country of origin of the shipments that we known? I would expect that T239 is shipped directly to Vietnam from the country of manufacturing (although I don't know if it has to go to some intermediate country for testing or something like that), so now that we have a known shipment of T239, if it was coming from South Korea, it would indicate that SEC is the foundry, or if it was from Taiwan, it would indicate TSMC.
 
Raccoon said:
no chat it's not H2
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It's H1
tenor.gif
 
Giancarlo said:
that disapointing, i hoped Nintendo could find a way of revealing it next console, without impact Switch
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why would you be dissappointed that a multibillion dollar company would have a small impact on sales?
They will reveal the switch 2 this year im 100% sure, and the impact on the sales will be nothing compared to the long run profits.
 
rgnthm said:
Random thought. It would be possible to have access to the country of origin of the shipments that we known? I would expect that T239 is shipped directly to Vietnam from the country of manufacturing (although I don't know if it has to go to some intermediate country for testing or something like that), so now that we have a known shipment of T239, if it was coming from South Korea, it would indicate that SEC is the foundry, or if it was from Taiwan, it would indicate TSMC.
Click to expand...
Hidden content is only available for registered users. Sharing it outside of Famiboards is subject to moderation.
 
ShadowFox08 said:
I heard it's 3 for least for Series X/S games, and maybe up to 5 for older generation games

www.pcmag.com

How to Switch Between Games With Quick Resume on Xbox Series X/S

The Xbox Series X and Series S allow you to quickly suspend and switch games without needing to relaunch or reload. Here's how to play multiple games at one time.
www.pcmag.com www.pcmag.com

This addition will probably be the best OS software feature.. Being able to quick resume between a physical and digital game (or two digital games) would be amazing
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At least 8 total, I have that much in QR right now. 😅
 
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The obvious deadline for the revealed of Switch 2 is November 1.
The Q1 earnings release will not include Q&A, so Nintendo is not under pressure.
However, the Q2 earnings release will include Q&A, and the annual management policy briefing will be held at the same time.
In fact, Switch was revealed on Friday, just before the Q2 earnings release.
 
Giancarlo said:
that disapointing, i hoped Nintendo could find a way of revealing it next console, without impact Switch
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The Switch is in its 8 year. At some point the launch sales of the next console are more important than the holidays sales of aging hardware.

I don‘t even see Switch 2 having too much an impact if revealed in September/October. Someone wanting to buying a Switch in 2024 is not the type of consumer interested in the newest hardware anyway.
 
karmitt said:
Now I’ve heard Samsung 8NM is “dead end” and I’m not educated enough to really understand what exactly that means, but what I gleaned was that it’s not something that allows for the “easy win” die shrink like a Mariko or the Deck OLED on 6nm. Moving to a more efficient process is akin to efforts to get it on Samsung 8NM in the first place. Somebody else is welcome to correct this if it’s flawed.
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This is correct, and I think your whole analysis here is spot on.

The one wrinkle I would add - if Samsung offered a truly incredible deal it might be worth it to run on 8nm and pay the otherwise very high price for a node shrink in the future. We're all guessing at prices here based on patterns in tech that moves at a much higher pace (yearly or semi-yearly generations) than consoles usually do. What might seem a little bonkers from the outside might make sound financial sense from the inside.
 
ZonaiResearcher said:
www.engadget.com

IBM puts Watson's brains in Nintendo Wii U

Nintendo's new console, the Wii U, was finally unveiled to the world today at E3 2011, and we got a glimpse of its graphical prowess at the company's keynote. Details were scarce about the IBM silicon Nintendo's new HD powerhouse was packing, but we did some digging to get a little more info...
www.engadget.com www.engadget.com
Engadget's Editor in Chief at the time posted a story citing IBM directly saying Espresso "packs the same processor technology found in Watson." Even IBM's press release at the time lied: "The all-new, Power-based microprocessor will pack some of IBM's most advanced technology" when it was just Wii x3. Why IBM felt the need to fuel the fire I have no idea.
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Lol! Basically: "Just go tell then anything, make it look good!" 🤣🤣🤣 that was a dick move. Well the blame goes all onto Nintendo. They chose that design.
 
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It‘s official. With this page, this thread caught up (and will likely overtake me) in number of pages compared to how many posts I wrote on this forum.
 
oldpuck said:
This is correct, and I think your whole analysis here is spot on.

The one wrinkle I would add - if Samsung offered a truly incredible deal it might be worth it to run on 8nm and pay the otherwise very high price for a node shrink in the future. We're all guessing at prices here based on patterns in tech that moves at a much higher pace (yearly or semi-yearly generations) than consoles usually do. What might seem a little bonkers from the outside might make sound financial sense from the inside.
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if Sammy is gonna throw in a crazy deal to use 8nm, they're probably throwing in discounted shrinkage R&D to one of their newer stuff like 3nm. but that's such a bonkers jump to not throw in a pro system, IMO
 
rgnthm said:
Random thought. It would be possible to have access to the country of origin of the shipments that we known? I would expect that T239 is shipped directly to Vietnam from the country of manufacturing (although I don't know if it has to go to some intermediate country for testing or something like that), so now that we have a known shipment of T239, if it was coming from South Korea, it would indicate that SEC is the foundry, or if it was from Taiwan, it would indicate TSMC.
Click to expand...
Hidden content is only available for registered users. Sharing it outside of Famiboards is subject to moderation.
 
Ghostsonplanets said:
If I may interject, I think what Redd is trying to get across is that people might be overhyping the machine GPU capabilities when doing comparison with PS4 Pro GPU.

His point is that PS4 Pro is a big GPU with tons of available resources and clocked decently high (For 2016 GPU standards). When people say that Switch 2 GA10F GPU will of course surpass the PS4 Pro GPU *before DLSS (What does that even mean?) if clocked high enough, that couldn't be further from the truth.

He doesn't mean that there won't be scenarios where the Switch 2 GPU won't outpace PS4 Pro GPU. Of course, in some scenarios, Switch 2 GPU will outpace or even do things that wouldn't be possible on the 4Pro due to it being a modern GPU with hardware support for modern features. But, when doing a iso comparison, the goals of each GPU are very different. GA10F is designed to be into a power limited form factor and output 4K content with aid of machine learning upsampling. PS4 Pro GPU was designed to draw 200W+ and to bring PS4 content to 4K with checkerboarding. The former has a leaner GPU while the latter has a fatter GPU. In normal circumstances, the wealthy of resources the Pro GPU has access to mean it should be outperforming the Switch 2 GPU even if TFLOPs are equal.

But, again, for software developed to take advantage of modern featureset, the Tegra will be doing things that are outright impossible on the past Playstation machine. The grievance of @ReddDread is just that people are thinking Switch 2 Docked will be a 1:1 PS4 Pro when things should be much more nuanced. Ultimately, I think someone else description is perfect: Switch 2 is a device that can do the same things Series S can do. Just at slower performance due to the form factor.
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I get what you're saying, but their notion of it all was borderline Mhz myth stuff by saying things like "Even on 4N you aren’t getting a 12 core GPU outclassing a 36 core GPU that easily, or a newer generation 20 core GPU." This isn't nuance. This is throwing out important information. Technology evolves. What was big before can be condensed into smaller packages now, being more efficient, having more features, etc. That is how the "smaller" 8CU GPU in the Steam Deck can trade blows with the "larger" 18CU GPU in the PS4.

PS4 Pro's GPU was rated at 4.2 TFlops based on having 36 GCN 4.0 CUs that form 2304 shaders running at 911Mhz. We don't have clocks for Switch 2's GPU, but it has 12 Ampere SMs that form 1536 shaders, and based on the 120GB/s of RAM bandwidth from LPDDR5X, the average bandwidth per TFlop of Ampere, and 20GB/s reserved for the CPU, it may be that the Switch 2's GPU could hit around 4 TFlops before bandwidth starvation, and that is when clocked at about 1.3Ghz. Big GPU (TSMC 16nm) or small GPU (TSMC 4N), if a GPU can hit such numbers, then what does it matter? But that's not the end of it. These are floating-point operations per second. Some operations are simple. Others are complex. A sequence of simpler operations can form a complex task, and the highly-used of those generally get made into single complex operations with newer architectures, allowing a reduction of operations to perform a task, increasing performance.

With smartphones/tablets that got brought up regarding GPU power, having a higher TFlop but would pale in results compared to something like home consoles, heavily involves this situation of what sort of operations they can do. They likely lack the kind of complex operations these other devices have. With Switch 2, it uses a full-fledged Ampere desktop GPU in SoC form, so no one can say its flops would pale in comparison to something older than it.
 
Aufhebung RPG said:
This thread is a huge win compared to the wiiu speculation thread from over a decade ago.
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This thread is an amazing win compared to WiiU. We started with 6SM (though this did started out as a Pro spec) and now expecting 12SM. Not only did we got a huge scoop with the NVIDIA leak, we got a new reliable source in shipment data and very knowledgeable trustworthy members analyzing the data and other tech trends making inference on potential spec. 12gb RAM and 256 storage match up nicely with those inferences. If we get 4N then the thread will not only got everything but also the on the high ends of expectation.
 
I don't understand stuff like Xbox's Quick Recovery. Are kids these days too lazy to save and close the game or something? Why in the world would you need to be able to swap between like 5 games? Maybe I'm just old I say at the ripe old age of 23.
 
Aufhebung RPG said:
This thread is a huge win compared to the wiiu speculation thread from over a decade ago.
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Not just a win compared to WUST; the Switch 2 arc is a huge win over back when we were in Switch Pro territory. The disappointment over Aula being real was palatable. The doom cycles that this thread would go through up until ~2 weeks ago kinda started there.

Once things moved to successor territory, it seems like we've kinda been getting what we've wanted, or at least what we expected.
 
ze_ said:


Hmm.
Click to expand...

I'm pretty sure I know what he thinks it is, and I don't think it's right based on publicly available info. However, I do have the sense he's been deliberately not documenting all things found in recent firmware revisions specifically because he's a killjoy who doesn't want people to speculate about new hardware, so it's possible he has more evidence for it than what I'm aware of.
 
Raccoon said:
this is the guy who said bc isn't happening right
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He has brought up the issue of precompiled shaders, which is not an insurmountable problem. If his claim is that because of this, BC isnt happening, then he's wrong. Though I don't remember him making that claim.
 
lexony said:
The Switch is in its 8 year. At some point the launch sales of the next console are more important than the holidays sales of aging hardware.

I don‘t even see Switch 2 having too much an impact if revealed in September/October. Someone wanting to buying a Switch in 2024 is not the type of consumer interested in the newest hardware anyway.
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you right, we should cry over spilled milk, over Switch losing a few sales
 
LiC said:
I'm pretty sure I know what he thinks it is, and I don't think it's right based on publicly available info. However, I do have the sense he's been deliberately not documenting all things found in recent firmware revisions specifically because he's a killjoy who doesn't want people to speculate about new hardware, so it's possible he has more evidence for it than what I'm aware of.
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you should say it, just as a little treat

c'mon lic I've had a rough week what with the steam deck dimensions and such
 
Raccoon said:
this is the guy who said bc isn't happening right
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Did Scires say that? I don't remember.
darthdiablo said:
If that's a commit SHA, I wouldn't know which repo to look that up.

Nah not a commit SHA, too long to be one. IDK what that string is supposed to be.
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It's an encrypted hash to use later to prove he knew what he was talking about. I included the reply to show that he was serious in his rebuttal.
 
Raccoon said:
you should say it, just as a little treat

c'mon lic I've had a rough week what with the steam deck dimensions and such
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Eh. If I'm wrong, then I just get called out for some cheap mockery, and even if I'm right, I still can't prove that it's not actually the codename.

It also can't be checked against the hash because we can assume he didn't just directly hash the word. It's either salted, or put in a sentence, or both.
 
Giancarlo said:
that disapointing, i hoped Nintendo could find a way of revealing it next console, without impact Switch
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Switch sales are sitting at 141,000,000+ units, a number any console manufacturer would kill for. It’s not going to stop selling after the successor is announced and it’s not going to stop selling after the successor launches. Sales impact or not, I’m sure Nintendo is beyond ecstatic with Switch’s sales performance. Are you expecting them to wait until the very last unit is sold before they move on?
 
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ShadowFox08 said:
Oh wow. I wonder how much the Switch 2 could theoretically hold 🤔. Guess it would be limited to mostly the 256GB storage size, if 2GB was dedicated to the Switch OS as well.

What exactly held back the switch from holding more, besides 32-64 GB of storage? SSD speed and 1GB for the OS?
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Is this about quick resume? I've had up to 13 at a time but it depends on which games. Smaller games, original Xbox and 360 games require less "space". We don't know how much that is but I've managed to get 13 with a combination of One and 360, and Series indie titles.

As for the Switch, idk, but if we ever got quick resume, I'd be happy with just 2 to be honest. 1 game that I'm actively playing like an RPG, and another one to hop into like Smash or MK
 
carbvan said:
I don't understand stuff like Xbox's Quick Recovery. Are kids these days too lazy to save and close the game or something? Why in the world would you need to be able to swap between like 5 games?
Click to expand...

I talked about this before. I'm playing star wars jedi survivor on PC and that intro (before I can finally load my save) is so slow... and I have no option to skip that shit.

Sometimes I need to abruptly interrupt my gameplay, and it's so good to be able to just press a button and put the switch in sleep mode without needing to think about saving the progress (sometimes I can't just save at that moment). Then, when I can play it again, I just press one button and I'm already playing exactly from where I left it.

Another example is multiples users. I share my Switch with my nephew. Imagine a family sharing one console, and someone left it in sleep with a game opened, and you want to play with your user but you're not sure if that game is already saved, or if you need to reach a save point so you can close the game. With a feature like quick resume you could just open another game with your user knowing the system will take a snapshot from the RAM content and the person who was playing will be able to continue from where it was without any problem.

For me it's a very nice feature to have.
 
Kise Ryota said:
I talked about this before. I'm playing star wars jedi survivor on PC and that intro (before I can finally load my save) is so slow... and I have no option to skip that shit.

Sometimes I need to abruptly interrupt my gameplay, and it's so good to be able to just press a button and put the switch in sleep mode without needing to think about saving the progress (sometimes I can't just save at that moment). Then, when I can play it again, I just press one button and I'm already playing exactly from where I left it.

Another example is multiples users. I share my Switch with my nephew. Imagine a family sharing one console, and someone left it in sleep with a game opened, and you want to play with your user but you're not sure if that game is already saved, or if you need to reach a save point so you can close the game. With a feature like quick resume you could just open another game with your user knowing the system will take a snapshot from the RAM content and the person who was playing will be able to continue from where it was without any problem.

For me it's a very nice feature to have.
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The siblings thing makes more sense. I haven't had to deal with sharing a console like that in a long, long time, so I guess I've forgotten. As for skipping past slow intros to games and stuff... Well I'm the kinda guy to go into the files for Borderlands and removing the intro movies so I never have to watch them lmao. Guess I'm just not the target demographic for that kinda QoL feature.
 
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