StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (New Staff Post, Please read)

[Kevin]

Joycons felts like such a huge part of Switch's identity whether you loved them or hated them and a lot of games use motion controls that can't be replicated on a Pro controller. I do NOT see Nintendo abandoning Joycons at all. What I do see is a revised version of the Joycon with improved functionality which will also allow Nintendo to sell you new Joycons. I think they also like people buying several controllers (Joycons, Pro Controller, etc) as that is more money for them as well. I fully anticipate Joycons will continue to be a large part of Switch 2.

Also when you spend so much money on a system, you definitely want the ability to replace the attached controllers. Can you imagine buying a Switch 2 with the controls built in and then getting stick drift a year later and your system is essentially BORKED and out of warrant? No thank you! I just don't see this happening.

 

[Hermii]

Quite a few commentators continuously over estimate the Steam Decks sales and always under estimate how wide a market the Switch sells to. A pro controller is not cheap, I’ve no doubt many kids just use the joy cons at home.

in a successor that's downgrading the screen technology for price reasons, somehow including 2 controller interfaces in the box makes sense. While loosing a feature many appreciated (local multiplayer).

 

[unit 9s]

Quite a few commentators continuously over estimate the Steam Decks sales and always under estimate how wide a market the Switch sells to. A pro controller is not cheap, I’ve no doubt many kids just use the joy cons at home.

My theory is that the Steam Deck target audience overlaps with the demographics of game journalists, leading to the importance of the system being overstated. I own a Steam Deck and it's alright, but it is absolutely not the direction Nintendo should go in for the Switch 2.

 

[unkindlynice]

in a successor that's downgrading the screen technology for price reasons, somehow including 2 controller interfaces in the box makes sense. While loosing a feature many appreciated (local multiplayer).

I mean this is why am on team (though I think I am the only member of this team) #joyconssoldseperately

 

[Hocot8]

Quite a few commentators continuously over estimate the Steam Decks sales and always under estimate how wide a market the Switch sells to. A pro controller is not cheap, I’ve no doubt many kids just use the joy cons at home.

I agree. This thing has sold just a few million units lol. It's a purely hardcore gamer device. People act like it's some 50M unit seller that is actual competition for Nintendo. Nintendo probably sold more switches last quarter than the steam deck has sold in totality. Or it's really close lmao.

My theory is that the Steam Deck target audience overlaps with the demographics of game journalists, leading to the importance of the system being overstated. I own a Steam Deck and it's alright, but it is absolutely not the direction Nintendo should go in for the Switch 2.

It absolutely does lol.

 

[darthdiablo]

How you two explain this to me, tho. It makes sense. I forgot about the promo getting started a lot from January. So yeah, maybe it's gonna be the same this time. We'll see, I just don't wanna get to excited about early release, since I also thought the reveal was gonna be January.

Still catching up on this thread (when I checked in, I'm 5 pages behind already lol).

Yeah, I hope they don't end up marketing Switch 2 for 6 months. That would take a lot of steam out of keeping things red-hot.

By the 6th month, if they're still marketing the product heavily the entire time, people are most likely going to feel a bit "meh"-d by the whole thing.

 

[Darknut85]

I desire a UI that does more than it needs to. Just shy of doing too much. Give me a UI with a theme. Hit me with a Wii Menu.

That‘s the right attitude!

 

[Giancarlo]

When Switch 2 gets revealed, do we start a new thread to start speculation about Switch 3?

no, theres wil be rumors/leaks of a Switch sucessor Pro coming very soon(ugh)

 

[unkindlynice]

The only UI changes I want are ones I know Nintendo likely won’t do -

Audio options supporting third party apps; I just want to listen to my podcasts and game audio on the train Nintendo!

Honestly that’s about it. The rest is just things like make the eshop run better but am sure that’s coming. The rest am fine with. I did like the 3DS pins and folders but I think Nintendo will keep it the way it is as it’s mainly like that to support the TV aspect.

(or what about a handheld theme and tv theme Nintendo…what about that…)

 

[Hocot8]

Still catching up on this thread (when I checked in, I'm 5 pages behind already lol).

Yeah, I hope they don't end up marketing Switch 2 for 6 months. That would take a lot of steam out of keeping things red-hot.

By the 6th month, if they're still marketing the product heavily the entire time, people are most likely going to feel a bit "meh"-d by the whole thing.

I'd only agree if the release was November or mid/late October. I say this cause I think the summer events and maybe even a September direct could sustain and even amplify the hype of a late September/early October release.

 

[Teal'c]

Now that would be something.

But Mar10 falls on a sunday, so I doubt it.

Don't underestimate Mario's power, he can do everything, even on Sunday!

 

[Giancarlo]

i wished Switch sucessor got anounced this march and in june/ july, everyone would already be playing the next 3D Mario, also ounce Switch sucessor is revealed by Nintendo, everyone would expect to play the console as soon as possible, a 3/4 months marketing the console should be the ideal outcome.

 

[darthdiablo]

I'd only agree if the release was November or mid/late October. I say this cause I think the summer events and maybe even a September direct could sustain and even amplify the hype of a late September/early October release.

6 months is too long for marketing things that hasn't been released yet in general - just IMHO. That would kill a lot of momentum.

Apple doesn't market unreleased stuff for 6 months straight. Apple frequently makes newly announced products available in retail stores less than a week later after announcing.

Edit: To be clear, if Nintendo was planning to release Switch 2 in September, I think that would mean Nintendo is going to merely announce that Switch 2 is coming in March (if March was when they planned to announce). There will be a few showings of Switch 2 - similar to orig Switch showing up on The Tonight Show before January blowout, but the launch of full marketing campaign probably won't start until a couple of months before release.

 

[Pokemaniac]

How is this pretty clear? I promise I'm not being pedantic. Mind linking me to more firmware discussion or some reasoning as to why folks are making these conclusions and are somehow so sure of them?

There has been a pattern of new features being added to the kernel that don't appear to be enabled on the current hardware. It's definitely getting prepped for something new.

 

[Teal'c]

We are getting close!! I can’t wait to see what Monolithsoft has been cooking!

oh yeaaah

 

[ILikeFeet]

the slides for ARM's Vulkanised 2024 mobile RT talk are up. the video will be later. some interesting stats here

RT Off/On

the demo runs at 900p and at 83fps with ray traced reflections and shadows vs 99fps with no RT

the rest of the slide deck

https://vulkan.org/user/pages/09.events/vulkanised-2024/vulkanised-2024-Iago-calvo-lista-arm-2.pdf

the slide deck for all the talks

Vulkanised 2024 | Vulkan | Cross platform 3D Graphics

Vulkanised is the largest event dedicated to developers using the Vulkan API and is a unique technical event that brings the Vulkan developer community together to exchange ideas, solve problems and help steer the future development of the Vulkan API and ecosystem.

vulkan.org

 

[Switcharoo]

Apple doesn't market unreleased stuff for 6 months straight. Apple frequently makes newly announced products available in retail stores less than a week later after announcing.

That's usually for iterative products like the iPhone, mac, ipad and other lineups which have been going for quite long. Something new like the Apple Vision Pro, which has huge leaps in tech, needed more than 6 months of marketing or around 6.

 

[SoldierDelta]

oh yeaaah

Considering how much of an ultimate Xenoblade machine the Switch is, it's kinda strange that Xenoblade X is the one that isn't on it. Kind of a shame, but I imagine it's going to be a launch-year title for the device with a port or a definitive edition. Kinda hoping for the latter, but I'd be happy to see it at all.

 

[Hocot8]

6 months is too long for marketing things that hasn't been released yet in general - just IMHO. That would kill a lot of momentum.

Apple doesn't market unreleased stuff for 6 months straight. Apple frequently makes newly announced products available in retail stores less than a week later after announcing.

I mean apple is apple. Everyone who wants an apple product knows when their product is coming out. That doesn't change. With that said their apple vision pro was revealed last June, so this isn't always true. It's just true for their normal products. Apple is very consistent of when they do events and releases. You're comparing an orange to a grapefruit haha

edit: with that said I don't think you are wrong with your thought process. I think you are right in the respect that Nintendo doesn't need a 6 month marketing period. I just see a way that one could be feasible but admittedly a 4 month marketing period would change nothing.

 

[darthdiablo]

That's usually for iterative products like the iPhone, mac, ipad and other lineups which have been going for quite long. Something new like the Apple Vision Pro, which has huge leaps in tech, needed more than 6 months of marketing or around 6.

So did they really market Apple Vision Pro for more than 6 months? I know they announced the device a while ago, but I don't seem to recall seeing any ads about Vision Pro until relatively recent.

I mean apple is apple. Everyone who wants an apple product knows when their product is coming out. That doesn't change. With that said their apple vision pro was revealed last June, so this isn't always true. It's just true for their normal products. Apple is very consistent of when they do events and releases. You're comparing an orange to a grapefruit haha

edit: with that said I don't think you are wrong with your thought process. I think you are right in the respect that Nintendo doesn't need a 6 month marketing period. I just see a way that one could be feasible but admittedly a 4 month marketing period would change nothing.

Yes, they announced it last June, but did they market the device all the way between June and now? I might have selective memory, but I don't recall seeing any ads about Vision Pro until fairly recently.

Original Switch was announced October 2016, but full marketing campaign did not begin until after January blowout presentation (2 months before release). Before October and January, original Switch did make a couple of appearances - for example, The Tonight Show. (Reggie and Fallon)

 

[ShadowFox08]

Well, you left out the part where I explained it, but my point was that if we knew nothing, then the difference in performance we would expect between an 8nm chip and a 4nm chip could be 2x, but based on the fact that we know a lot of details about the chip, the difference in performance I'd expect between an 8nm chip and a 4nm chip could be as little as 20% or so.

Maybe so, but the difference in power draw and battery life will be huge as well.

Is 8nm Samsung to 4nm tsmc comparable to 20nm to 16/12nm TSMC in regards to power draw?


Anyway in regards to a March reveal .. Would Nintendo think it would matter for them if it gets revealed before Peach Showtime? Seems like it's their last swan song for an exclusive before switch 2 is out.

I'm thinking a similar window to reveal vs release. I think Nintendo is going to want as many switch 2 's available during the holidays. I don't think they started manufacturing just yet, but will soon.

So my predictions:

-1. a soft reveal next month in March like Switch's October 2016 reveal
2. Summer blow out reveal (Mid June ?) with MP4, a new Mario game, and perhaps a gen 5 Pokemon port, and a ton of 3rd party games (Eldin Ring, Cyber Punk, Cod, RE remake games, elder scrolls, etc). Also "free" next gen patch support for certain last gen games. I put in quotes because I wouldn't be surprised if it's gated to a higher tier NSO or they ask for $10 upgrade.
3. release 2 months after? Late Summer/Early Fall. Gen 5 Pokemon in September and Mario in late November, or the dates switched for those games

My guess is MP4 and a new MK game gets a 2025 release. I think having a 3d Mario and Pokemon in the span of 4 months would be too tight for an MP4 game. That being said, I would love the announcement and release if a XBX port.

-finally, I expect most of the 1st party games announced to be multiplatform, though I could see them gate one like 3d Mario to Switch 2, even though I previously didn't think that before. But perhaps it also depends on how much supply too maybe?

I also wonder if Nintendo really anticipates selling 15 million switches this year based on their financial reports (correct me if I'm quoting correctly), or if they mean for all consoles (which they didn't state).

 

[nitroplum]

in a successor that's downgrading the screen technology for price reasons, somehow including 2 controller interfaces in the box makes sense. While loosing a feature many appreciated (local multiplayer).

I understand the skepticism about the display, but take a look at the Playstation Portal. It's an 8 inch LCD screen and it's a darn pretty screen. LCD tech has come a long way from what the Switch had available in 2017.

 

[Switcharoo]

So did they really market Apple Vision Pro for more than 6 months? I know they announced the device a while ago, but I don't seem to recall seeing any ads about Vision Pro until relatively recent.

Announced it a while ago back in WWDC 2023 which is held every June. They had other products market at that time, such as the new Macbooks and the iPhone 15/Pro series.

 

[bmfrosty]

I also wonder if Nintendo really anticipates selling 15 million switches this year based on their financial reports (correct me if I'm quoting correctly), or if they mean for all consoles (which they didn't state).

I feel like they could consider a Switch to be a Switch even if it's a Switch 2.

EDIT for the sake of clarity: In talking about forecasting numbers of consoles sold, but once it comes to slide decks and such, it will separate out the different models of Switch.

 

[kvetcha]

I also wonder if Nintendo really anticipates selling 15 million switches this year based on their financial reports (correct me if I'm quoting correctly), or if they mean for all consoles (which they didn't state).

I believe ‘this year’ just means this fiscal year, which ends in March. Since they bumped their estimate I wager they’re on target.

 

[darthdiablo]

I also wonder if Nintendo really anticipates selling 15 million switches this year based on their financial reports (correct me if I'm quoting correctly), or if they mean for all consoles (which they didn't state).

Unless I'm mistaken, they actually increased the forecast by 500,000 units, to 15.5 million units. Because Q3 was better than expected (which we just got numbers for).

What do you mean "for all consoles"? To clarify, "this fiscal year" (with 15.5 mil units sold forecast) ends after last day of this March (this year). The new fiscal year & plan (which hasn't been shared yet) will come later. The 15.5 million forecast does not include Switch 2 numbers at all.

 

[Hosermess]

I also wonder if Nintendo really anticipates selling 15 million switches this year based on their financial reports (correct me if I'm quoting correctly), or if they mean for all consoles (which they didn't state).

They haven't said anything about the next financial year - which starts in April. The 15M (15.5M now actually) is still for the year ending March 2024. They will release that forecasts later on and it will include Switch 2.

 

[Deleted member 645]

Will it into existence!
Or wait for Pyoro.

Just waiting. Nintendo is just so unpredictable.

 

[Derilian]

I don't see why not.

 

[darthdiablo]

Announced it a while ago back in WWDC 2023 which is held every June. They had other products market at that time, such as the new Macbooks and the iPhone 15/Pro series.

Okay, but that's not really answering my questions - they announced it, but that doesn't inherently mean they marketed the product full-on between June and now. That was what I was trying to ask about, did they actually market Vision Pro full-on between last June and now? Because as I mentioned I don't recall seeing ads for Vision Pro until fairly recently.

Take original Switch for example. It was announced October 2016, but not marketed full-on until after January blowout presentation, so the full-on marketing campaign only went on for 2 months before release date, not 4.5 months between October 2016 and March 2017.

 

[eye0h]

[THESE COULD BE OLD] [THEY ARE OLD LMAO]
Have people posted these patents? I know we aren't supposed to look at this shit as anything more than a mad experiment but this is somewhat interesting.



the user has been posting a lot of them on his account with the breakdowns if anyone's interested (they are all pretty interesting, I recommend looking)

Summary:

• Head mounted VR support, actual mount may have senors
• Ergonomic joycon grip
• New Cradle Dock with a built in sleep button (woah)
• Tiny baby little kickstand that's just a single baby metal bar (wtf please no)
• New joycon - larger shoulder buttons - new rail system (no button just force to pull them out, probably some nice engineering done there) - real dpad
• Pro controller with pressure sensitive edges (near the deadzone area there are like pressure pads or something idk I studied marketing)

shoutout to the youtubers who are gonna use this as a boderline script in their next video jk I hate you all

 

[darthdiablo]

Have people posted these patents? I know we aren't supposed to look at this shit as anything more than a mad experiment but this is somewhat interesting.



the user has been posting a lot of them on his account with the breakdowns if anyone's interested

There was some theories/speculation earlier in this thread that the new Switch 2 dock might be open-faced, so this kind of lines up (if that ends up being true). The speculation/theory came from customs data showing there are rubber protective cover for the screen for the presumed new hardware (HGU1000/1001/1010).

I'm going to check out the Twitter account you shared. You probably know that but as a general rule, any found Nintendo patents likely means Nintendo decided not to move forward with the patent.

 

[Hocot8]

Yes, they announced it last June, but did they market the device all the way between June and now? I might have selective memory, but I don't recall seeing any ads about Vision Pro until fairly recently.

Original Switch was announced October 2016, but full marketing campaign did not begin until after January blowout presentation (2 months before release). Before October and January, original Switch did make a couple of appearances - for example, The Tonight Show. (Reggie and Fallon)

No, it was not a full marketing campaign for the $3500 goggles, but who says Nintendo is going to go full-blown marketing for 6 full months? I think you are overstating how much marketing would occur if Nintendo would announce it next month. But I guess it depends on what we assume they'll actually talk about.

With that said I saw ads over the holiday season reminding apple fans about this device, but yes full blown marketing started in the middle of January when preorders went up.

And again marketing apple products is so much different especially with that cultist fanbase lol.

 

[darthdiablo]

but who says Nintendo is going to go full-blown marketing for 6 full months?

Nobody did. I am saying if the release month is September, that would be a bummer because I suspect that would mean the announcement in March (if that ends up being true) is just going to be a soft reveal. And then almost radio silence until about 2 months or so before release month.

I don't think they're going to do a full marketing blitz for 6 consecutive months if reveal month is March and launch month is September.

"And again marketing apple products is so much different especially with that cultist fanbase lol."

I'm part of that cultist fanbase I guess. No Windows machines in our house (family of 4). All Mac Pro laptops (and one iMac). All iPhones. I'm not really a fan of Vision Pro though (and already have Quest 2, which satisfies my VR gaming needs)

 

[PatrykPrime]

Have people posted these patents? I know we aren't supposed to look at this shit as anything more than a mad experiment but this is somewhat interesting.



the user has been posting a lot of them on his account with the breakdowns if anyone's interested

Maybe Arlo's idea for a dock like that could come true in the future. The idea sounds very nice to me.

 

[Aquamarine]

.

 

[kvetcha]

And again marketing apple products is so much different especially with that cultist fanbase lol.

yes, definitely brainwashed sheeple, not quality fans like Nintendo

 

[Disorientator]

Have people posted these patents? I know we aren't supposed to look at this shit as anything more than a mad experiment but this is somewhat interesting.



the user has been posting a lot of them on his account with the breakdowns if anyone's interested (they are all pretty interesting, I recommend looking)

I'm not on X so I'm not sure what they're actually implying here, but those patent drawings (of the system/dock) are super old. (like 2016 old)

Edit: Or does he have a source or something and just using the drawings as a reference to make his point?

 

[Thugstas]

How about March 14th?
The day that Krabs fries.

It is my birthday

 

[Hocot8]

Nobody did. I am saying if the release month is September, that would be a bummer because I suspect that would mean the announcement in March (if that ends up being true) is just going to be a soft reveal. And then almost radio silence until about 2 months or so before release month.

I don't think they're going to do a full marketing blitz for 6 consecutive months if reveal month is March and launch month is September.

"And again marketing apple products is so much different especially with that cultist fanbase lol."

I'm part of that cultist fanbase I guess. No Windows machines in our house (family of 4). All Mac Pro laptops (and one iMac). All iPhones. I'm not really a fan of Vision Pro though (and already have Quest 2, which satisfies my VR gaming needs)

Oh I see now. Maybe I misunderstand you're original post haha. Cause what you just said is exactly how I see it happening. Soft reveal next month which goes into a full reveal in May or June. Summer Games Fest lets the 3rd parties slap a switch 2 logo on it and then Nintendo does something in early September to show off early 2025 games.

And hey I've been an iphone user since the 4s. I got a macbook and an ipad. I'm no better as I look down on the apple cult lmfao.

 

[Serif]

An open face info display dock makes sense to me - as a shelved idea. Living room setups are inconsistent and a little display that's 6 ft+ away from you when the system is docked doesn't seem particularly useful or ergonomic. It's not like the Wii U gamepad where it can be right in front of you, or like the Wii sensor bar where you can set and forget it. When in docked mode the Switch likes to cosplay as a set top box with no screen, that's part of the hybrid presentation.

 

[unkindlynice]

Plus I don’t want to look at the back of the Switch personally. Notifications can also come across as ads which might gain bad press imo.

 

[darthdiablo]

Last fiscal year (Apr 2022 - Mar 2023), Nintendo sold 14.91 million Switch units. To plan on selling 15.5 million Switch units this fiscal year (Apr 2023 - Mar 2024), INCREASING hardware shipments, is quite a feat for a seven-year-old console. IMO Nintendo is in a healthy enough spot for a slower ramp-up of Switch 2 marketing throughout this year.

Original Switch units selling well or not, it's not going to materialistically alter Switch 2 release timeline or marketing plans, it's most likely set in stone at this point.

 

[Hocot8]

yes, definitely brainwashed sheeple, not quality fans like Nintendo

Thankfully I never said anything about the fans of Nintendo cause that'd be hypocritical but if you want to overreact go ahead. I genuinely don't care to argue how nonsensical people are about apple considering I'm literally part of the fandom lol.

Every fandom is disillusioned. Has nothing to do with being "sheeple."

 

[Dimensio]

Last fiscal year (Apr 2022 - Mar 2023), Nintendo sold 14.91 million Switch units.

Nintendo sold 17.97 millions in FY2023, not sure where you're getting that 14.91 millions from.

 

[Serif]

Plus I don’t want to look at the back of the Switch personally. Notifications can also come across as ads which might gain bad press imo.

A prototype version of the Switch menu actually had the news section constantly display something on the home screen. I'm glad they moved away from that to just an icon with a notification. With the Switch they deliberately avoid a lot of visual noise, in both the UI and hardware side.

 

[bmfrosty]

I keep softening on the idea of a March Trailer, May/June big event, and July/August launch.

I keep talking myself into the short announce to launch timeline. I think it's likely that I'm missing something, but I don't see the upside to a extended announce to launch.

I have to assume that partners have had enough info to have been adapting/developing for it for at least a year and possibly some good ideas on CPU/GPU capability since last year to make games launch ready. Maybe I'm wrong there.

 

[darthdiablo]

An open face info display dock makes sense to me - as a shelved idea. Living room setups are inconsistent and a little display that's 6 ft+ away from you when the system is docked doesn't seem particularly useful or ergonomic. It's not like the Wii U gamepad where it can be right in front of you, or like the Wii sensor bar where you can set and forget it. When in docked mode the Switch likes to cosplay as a set top box with no screen, that's part of the hybrid presentation.

 

[casualreader]

On a side note, weren't they also on the no joycons train a few weeks back? Or did I just make that up.

No idea as I did not watch their podcast, just read highlights. I hope this is wrong.
But on the whole debate, I think if they ditch the joycons they will do something better (they always surprise us right?). As it makes no sense to go back and the joycons added so much value.

 

[nitroplum]

I think you mean the GUI, and honestly, it does what it needs to.

Only think I'd do is add in some built-in Mii support and improve the eShop speed, but that's more of a web side thing. There's some some technical explanation for the slowness, I think it's them avoiding some class of exploits by dealing with javascript in a slower manner or something.

I also wouldn't say no to optional music. I really liked the Wii and Wii U shop music.

My problem is that with a large digital library I can't find anything or even know what I own. The eShop experience is a disaster. It doesn't have any of the charm of their other consoles.