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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (New Staff Post, Please read)

It is a pretty nice boost, and the new flops are better as per usual.

I still think it’ll be an issue even at 720p for complex open world type games that just need the raw compute power for some of the more modern complex world design.
GPU requirements are very scalable. Engines generally cares more about features than they do about power, and ampere is at least as good as rdna 2 feature wise.

cpu and memory is generally the bigger issues, when porting to a less powerful system, as long as you have all the features you need. And possibly storage speed, when games start to require ssds,
 
We should look at the GA107S to get some grounds for this discussion. Here we see a 16SM GPU clocked at 1.2GHz with 4GB of GDDR6 memory and a TDP of 25 watts. The memory takes up ~8 watts here, so the TDP of the GPU is about ~17 watts, so lets say it's 13 watts on the same 8nm node for the same 1.2GHz clock on Drake. However we can reduce the clock to 1GHz and see a huge reduction in power consumption, lets error on the side of caution and say 30% for a 17% clock reduction, now we are looking at 10 watts for Drake's GPU when docked.

I think docked, Drake could be anywhere from 768MHz to 1GHz, offering 2.36TFLOPs to 3TFLOPs when docked. When portable, a 400MHz clock should drastically reduce the GPU power consumption further, lets just go with under 5 watts for the GPU. The big question is will Nintendo allow Drake to use more energy than the original Switch? I think it is very possible, battery technology has gotten much better, so there should be room to pull 10 watts (original Switch was 9 watts with full brightness on a bad screen).

It's also worth noting that it could be 8ULA and not Ampere's current process node, it could even be Samsung's 7nm process node, as we have seen Nvidia shrink an 8nm SoC to 7nm recently. Since the leaker is unsure about the process node, and he is the only source for 8nm, and that GA10F is very likely seen a few changes over the past 3 years... We can no longer assume it is still 8nm. I also think it is a bit reckless to solidify the idea that they would disable Two 3rds of the GPU for portable mode, if that were the case, they would just shrink the GPU and run it at a higher clock instead, as it would save money.
What ballpark are we talking about: 1050Ti to 1060 maybe?

Edit : this GPU only has 4GB of RAM. How much would it consume with 8 GB, resp. 12 GB of RAM?
 
To tie up a loose end, I've now seen things that strongly suggest the G-Sync support in NVN2 is only for the Windows implementation. I do think it's weird that it's there, and that it got its own section in the programming guide (which seems copy-pasted and doesn't even mention NX hardware), but this is the Nvidia side of things, not the Nintendo side, and I think they've worked on some features for trial purposes, future-proofing, and/or demoing that Nintendo is unlikely to be taking advantage of at the moment. There is also a feature profile that explicitly says DisplayPort support is turned off on Tegra, though we have no way of knowing if Nintendo's actual build of NVN2 uses that profile.
 
Its a shame these leak so far hasn’t mentioned about CPU configuration so we can have a full picture of the device.

But lets say they will use same 7’’ OLED screen with 720p output resolution. Imagine Nintendo will also aim 4k resolution in TV. There is a jump of 9 times the amount of pixels to be displayed.

So I agree that cutting SMs and clock speed by 2 when portable is reasonable. In case they used again 768MHz as clock speed, we are talking about a perfomance of roughly 590 GFLOPs, thats enough I think to run any Switch title with docked mode resolution and there is enough room for some improvements.

Example: Xenoblade titles runs at 720p in docked on actual Switch HW. On next HW, it would run at same resolution as old docked on new portable mode (720p with room to some improvements) while in the new docked mode, it will run in full 4k.

But there is a drawback, if you limit to half SMs, you are also limiting the number of Tensor Cores and RT Cores in half. This is not the best.
 
But there is a drawback, if you limit to half SMs, you are also limiting the number of Tensor Cores and RT Cores in half. This is not the best.
That's a good point, something I didn't consider.

I've been assuming one of the reasons they went with 12SMs in the first place is so they'd have more RT and tensor cores. Unless it's possible to keep those active while you deactivate the other elements in each cluster (which seems unlikely) then it would be odd to limit the logic provided by those cores in handheld mode.

Especially if we do expect Nintendo to experiment with AI stuff using said tensor cores.
 
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GPU requirements are very scalable. Engines generally cares more about features than they do about power, and ampere is at least as good as rdna 2 feature wise.

cpu and memory is generally the bigger issues, when porting to a less powerful system, as long as you have all the features you need. And possibly storage speed, when games start to require ssds,
While true there is still a floor for a reason. At some point you just need raw compute power to render the world even if you clamp down on the draw distance.

I look at a cross gen game like Elden Ring and wonder even at 720p.
 
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Nintendos software lineup is really ambitious for the next 12 months, their current earning are really strong - they were never in a better spot for a more ambitious hardware launch....if not now, its never gonna happen.
Well if it's not going to be now (in the next 12 months or so), it's still going to happen, just later, as it seems the hardware has already been decided on give or take a detail. But imo a "later" launch (which is what many outside this thread expect, because of OLED recency and other reasons) will be less effective.
 
True. But as each SM has 128 CUDA cores, it's a easy extrapolation to be done.
For general Ampere architecture. We don't know for a fact this is using that same architecture exactly, there was talk of it borrowing features from Ada.
 
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Question, when did it become common talk that the next switch would be using dlss?
Speculation started in 2019 - it made sense to lots of folks that Nintendo would be interested in their major technology partner's tool for upping resolution without as big a leap in GPU power. IIRC it was mostly chatter on message boards with nothing behind it. I recall a resetera thread that was mostly PC players saying DLSS was a huge failure that wasn't going to stick around, and Nintendo players saying Ninty would never do that ;)

In September of 2020, Bloomberg reported that devs were being told to "prepare for 4k" but DLSS wasn't mentioned. At that point it was either dismissed by folks, or DLSS was brought up. At that point, people who assumed the Bloomberg report was accurate were pretty convinced that DLSS had to be involved, and by early 2021 Bloomberg was saying the same thing. Bloomberg wasn't the first by any notion, that was just the point that the conversation really blew up and all the "insiders" seemed mostly in sync

Then the OLED launched and there was a backlash, but lots of sources doubled down - a 4K Switch was coming. At that point it was clear that DLSS was the key to NVidia's gaming plans anyway so even people who didn't seem to believe that the Switch was getting a revision largely assumed that DLSS was going to be involved in The Next Console. By late 2021 we started to see that Nintendo had patented AI upscaling technology similar to DLSS that would require NVidia hardware to run - by then the direction was pretty clear.
 
I still think that Nintendo really wants their developers (and 3:rd party) to use DLSS in undocked mode if it’s feasible or possible at 600Gflops.

Otherwise it needs to be a tad more powerful.
Imagine playing RDR2 in undocked mode using DLSS to render a 540p image to 1080p and then downsample to 720p 🤤
 
Probably not. It still has strict power constraints that the XSS doesn't have.
We are talking 12 RT cores here (As stated in the API)

4 Ampere RT Cores if fed enough can match the Series S's RT Acceleration

At the very least 12RT Cores that are less fed likely will easily match the Seires S's RT Acceleration
 
SO, I forgot what this person's name was, but there was this developer that posted here. at some stage they said they could no longer comment on things due to NDA, and at some later stage said they probably won't make their game for Switch 2 if there were some things missing (and they seemed to thing they might be missing). Anyone know who I'm talking about? I thought it would be interesting if, based solely on the leak (so no NDA breaking whatsoever), they would comment here on whether they would still not make their game for Switch 2.

Then again maybe there is still insufficient information from the leak.
 
It’s entirely possible now that Switch 4k will have better RT performance than the Xbox Series S, isn’t it?
Yes, depending on clock, it could even be somewhat close in portable mode. Basically a PS4 Pro in your hands with just current Switch portable clock.

Sorry read this as performance in 4K. RT will absolutely happen given the huge advantage Ampere has over rdna2 ray tracing.
 
Yes, depending on clock, it could even be somewhat close in portable mode. Basically a PS4 Pro in your hands with just current Switch portable clock.
Yeah and it goes to PS4 Pro level after DLSS, PS4 level pre-DLSS (In handheld)
 
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I still think that Nintendo really wants their developers (and 3:rd party) to use DLSS in undocked mode if it’s feasible or possible at 600Gflops.

Otherwise it needs to be a tad more powerful.
Imagine playing RDR2 in undocked mode using DLSS to render a 540p image to 1080p and then downsample to 720p 🤤
Based on what we know now I don’t see how the system would have any issues running RDR2.
Probably not. It still has strict power constraints that the XSS doesn't have.
AMD RT performance in comparison to Nvidia is notoriously poor.
 
SO, I forgot what this person's name was, but there was this developer that posted here. at some stage they said they could no longer comment on things due to NDA, and at some later stage said they probably won't make their game for Switch 2 if there were some things missing (and they seemed to thing they might be missing). Anyone know who I'm talking about? I thought it would be interesting if, based solely on the leak (so no NDA breaking whatsoever), they would comment here on whether they would still not make their game for Switch 2.

Then again maybe there is still insufficient information from the leak.
You're thinking of Brainchild who commented on the other thread saying he wishes he could talk about this but due to NDA cannot.
AMD RT performance in comparison to Nvidia is notoriously poor.
In that case I don't know. I'd defer to others.

We are talking 12 RT cores here (As stated in the API)

4 Ampere RT Cores if fed enough can match the Series S's RT Acceleration

At the very least 12RT Cores that are less fed likely will easily match the Seires S's RT Acceleration
I thought Orin had 1 RT core for every 2 SMs. So it would be 6 RT cores if this has the same general architecture.
 
Imagine playing RDR2 in undocked mode using DLSS to render a 540p image to 1080p and then downsample to 720p 🤤
I'm all for image quality, but I don't think 540p->DLSS->1080p->scale->720p would gain much versus 540p->DLSS->720p to be worth the extra machine effort.
 
SO, I forgot what this person's name was, but there was this developer that posted here. at some stage they said they could no longer comment on things due to NDA, and at some later stage said they probably won't make their game for Switch 2 if there were some things missing (and they seemed to thing they might be missing). Anyone know who I'm talking about? I thought it would be interesting if, based solely on the leak (so no NDA breaking whatsoever), they would comment here on whether they would still not make their game for Switch 2.

Then again maybe there is still insufficient information from the leak.
I know who you are referring to.

His specific concern was actually about storage speed, something this leak doesn’t address at all. He was specifically worried about unreal engine 5s nanite, and weather storage would be fast enough to support it.
 
I thought Orin had 1 RT core for every 2 SMs. So it would be 6 RT cores if this has the same general architecture.
Yeah Orin does say that in it's Devpapers.

Problem is Orin doesn't list the Generation of the RT Cores and the NVN2 Leak states Drake has 12 RT Cores.

And interestingly enough Orin as having 16 for when it was used as devkits.

Me and another actually are wondering if Orin can pair RT Cores together in software to make efficiency shoot up for medical/AI tasks, but then decouple them if wanted for gaming.

And we haven't seen that implication until now because Orin never was shown in a gaming context so Orin AGX could have it locked at the driver level to that "Paired RT Core" mode
 
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This is interesting information, assuming Nintendo and Nvidia are considering using Samsung's 5LPE process node or Samsung's 5LPP process node for the fabrication of Drake.
 
Question, when did it become common talk that the next switch would be using dlss?

Speculation started in 2019 - it made sense to lots of folks that Nintendo would be interested in their major technology partner's tool for upping resolution without as big a leap in GPU power. IIRC it was mostly chatter on message boards with nothing behind it. I recall a resetera thread that was mostly PC players saying DLSS was a huge failure that wasn't going to stick around, and Nintendo players saying Ninty would never do that ;)

In September of 2020, Bloomberg reported that devs were being told to "prepare for 4k" but DLSS wasn't mentioned. At that point it was either dismissed by folks, or DLSS was brought up. At that point, people who assumed the Bloomberg report was accurate were pretty convinced that DLSS had to be involved, and by early 2021 Bloomberg was saying the same thing. Bloomberg wasn't the first by any notion, that was just the point that the conversation really blew up and all the "insiders" seemed mostly in sync

Then the OLED launched and there was a backlash, but lots of sources doubled down - a 4K Switch was coming. At that point it was clear that DLSS was the key to NVidia's gaming plans anyway so even people who didn't seem to believe that the Switch was getting a revision largely assumed that DLSS was going to be involved in The Next Console. By late 2021 we started to see that Nintendo had patented AI upscaling technology similar to DLSS that would require NVidia hardware to run - by then the direction was pretty clear.
To add to this, rumors that the system would have DLSS began circulating on ERA around December 2020. That's probably around when talk of the next Switch using DLSS really took off in this specific circle.
Its a shame these leak so far hasn’t mentioned about CPU configuration so we can have a full picture of the device.

But lets say they will use same 7’’ OLED screen with 720p output resolution. Imagine Nintendo will also aim 4k resolution in TV. There is a jump of 9 times the amount of pixels to be displayed.

So I agree that cutting SMs and clock speed by 2 when portable is reasonable. In case they used again 768MHz as clock speed, we are talking about a perfomance of roughly 590 GFLOPs, thats enough I think to run any Switch title with docked mode resolution and there is enough room for some improvements.

Example: Xenoblade titles runs at 720p in docked on actual Switch HW. On next HW, it would run at same resolution as old docked on new portable mode (720p with room to some improvements) while in the new docked mode, it will run in full 4k.

But there is a drawback, if you limit to half SMs, you are also limiting the number of Tensor Cores and RT Cores in half. This is not the best.
So far the leaks have been mainly focused around the graphics API, so it makes sense that the CPU is not really mentioned. Nvidia is using reference cores on the CPU side, so there probably just isn't anywhere near as much info from them to leak on that front in the first place.
 
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SO, I forgot what this person's name was, but there was this developer that posted here. at some stage they said they could no longer comment on things due to NDA, and at some later stage said they probably won't make their game for Switch 2 if there were some things missing (and they seemed to thing they might be missing). Anyone know who I'm talking about? I thought it would be interesting if, based solely on the leak (so no NDA breaking whatsoever), they would comment here on whether they would still not make their game for Switch 2.

Then again maybe there is still insufficient information from the leak.
Brainchild who appears to be working on a project that depends on geometry shaders, and high storage throughput. I don't think we have any indications of that from the data we have, though someone more knowledgeable about Nvidia's offerings might be able to infer support for RTX IO from what we know.

edit: Didn't see Hermii's post!
 
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I know who you are referring to.

His specific concern was actually about storage speed, something this leak doesn’t address at all. He was specifically worried about unreal engine 5s nanite, and weather storage would be fast enough to support it.
Nanite doesn’t really require ultra fast storage speeds though.
 
I also think it is a bit reckless to solidify the idea that they would disable Two 3rds of the GPU for portable mode, if that were the case, they would just shrink the GPU and run it at a higher clock instead, as it would save money.
What if they kinda go the XBox Series route to circumvent the shortage without limiting themselves for the rest of the generation?

Switch 2 S - $300 only has 4 (or 6) SMs @800+mhz and won't change profiles when docked (it would still be an decent upgrade from the current docked).

Switch 2 X - $500 12 SM available when docked.

The S model would have a smaller SoC compared to X and would be produced the most, at least in the first couple years.

Of course, it won't be called S/X, but it's easier to illustrate.
 
What if they kinda go the XBox Series route to circumvent the shortage without limiting themselves for the rest of the generation?

Switch 2 S - $300 only has 4 (or 6) SMs @800+mhz and won't change profiles when docked (it would still be an decent upgrade from the current docked).

Switch 2 X - $500 12 SM available when docked.

The S model would have a smaller SoC compared to X and would be produced the most, at least in the first couple years.

Of course, it won't be called S/X, but it's easier to illustrate.
We'd probably have heard about a second SoC in that case. Right now all we've heard about is T239.
 
If the speculation about disabling half the sms for portable is true, that means there is probably a 6sm version of Drake in development for lite successor.
 
With a Switch successor, I was really hoping they would be able to utilise tech so that they could let you have a game on your TV and on your Switch so you could bring back experiences like Nintendoland. Wonder if that’s something they may look into for future consoles.
 
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You're thinking of Brainchild who commented on the other thread saying he wishes he could talk about this but due to NDA cannot.

In that case I don't know. I'd defer to others.


I thought Orin had 1 RT core for every 2 SMs. So it would be 6 RT cores if this has the same general architecture.
You're jumping to conclusions instead of taking the information at face value. Orin has been modified from it's initial design, thus officially changing from 17b transistors to 21b transistors. There are some theories, but what we have in front of us is that at some point Orin had 16 RT cores and now has 8 RT cores, saying that Drake's RT cores were also halved is just baseless speculation. The number for Drake is 12 RT cores, until it isn't.
 
We'd probably have heard about a second SoC in that case. Right now all we've heard about is T239.
Not sure about that. The second SoC would be just replicating an existing configuration from Drake, so they could easily work solely on Drake until they finish tweaking and tapping it out.

And we did heard about "Dane", which IMO is more likely to be the codename for another chip than Kopite going through a chain of misinterpretations (Tim Drake > Batman > Black Knight > Dane Whitman), albeit it could be completely unrelated to Nintendo/Drake.
 
Quoted by: LiC
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If the speculation about disabling half the sms for portable is true, that means there is probably a 6sm version of Drake in development for lite successor.
This is how bad rumors start, this is all confusing enough for people, no need to make a bunch of things up right now. We will get more information on Friday. I think we should refrain from making our own changes to basically official specs, just because we might not understand them.
 
Not sure about that. The second SoC would be just replicating an existing configuration from Drake, so they could easily work solely on Drake until they finish tweaking and tapping it out.

And we did heard about "Dane", which IMO is more likely to be the codename for another chip than Kopite going through a chain of misinterpretations (Tim Drake > Batman > Black Knight > Dane Whitman), albeit it could be completely unrelated to Nintendo/Drake.
If there was another chip, it would be somewhere in this leak.
 
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You're jumping to conclusions instead of taking the information at face value. Orin has been modified from it's initial design, thus officially changing from 17b transistors to 21b transistors. There are some theories, but what we have in front of us is that at some point Orin had 16 RT cores and now has 8 RT cores, saying that Drake's RT cores were also halved is just baseless speculation. The number for Drake is 12 RT cores, until it isn't.
I'm not taking anything at face value, I literally said "So it would be 6 RT cores if this has the same general architecture."

It could easily be different but seeing as how closely this follows Orin, it's logical to assume for the moment it follows Orin's RT configuration too. AFAIK nothing in the documentation leaked outright suggests 12 RT cores.
 
I'm not taking anything at face value, I literally said "So it would be 6 RT cores if this has the same general architecture."

It could easily be different but seeing as how closely this follows Orin, it's logical to assume for the moment it follows Orin's RT configuration too. AFAIK nothing in the documentation leaked outright suggests 12 RT cores.
it said 12 RT cores for Drake and 16 RT cores for Orin in the leaked data, Orin has limited need for RT cores, but Drake is a gaming SoC, and we know Orin changed and now has 8 RT cores, but no signs that Drake has changed.
 
This is how bad rumors start, this is all confusing enough for people, no need to make a bunch of things up right now. We will get more information on Friday. I think we should refrain from making our own changes to basically official specs, just because we might not understand them.
I didn’t at all mean to start a rumour. I just meant that if that is the approach Nintendo will take (disabling part of the chip, instead of having lower clocks), a separate chip for lite would be logical. Of course we don’t know anything.

Either that, or use binned versions of Drake.
 
This is how bad rumors start, this is all confusing enough for people, no need to make a bunch of things up right now. We will get more information on Friday. I think we should refrain from making our own changes to basically official specs, just because we might not understand them.

But Zom! I'm missing some fun hype train activities right here. I know this might just be a bubble that is gonna pop and let everyone down when reality becomes real but... Fun baseless speculation time!

If Nintendo really did try to make this docked version have more/less watts on a 12SM chip:

10W (less!? not like this Nintendo, not like this): >2TF?
15W (keeping it similar to og switch): ~2.5TF?
25W (here we go!): ~4TF?
35W (sweet sweet fan noise): ~5TF?!?!?!?!?

Do some chip maths for us Zom!! What would those numbers look like, in your educated guesstimate?
 
it said 12 RT cores for Drake and 16 RT cores for Orin in the leaked data, Orin has limited need for RT cores, but Drake is a gaming SoC, and we know Orin changed and now has 8 RT cores, but no signs that Drake has changed.
Oh, did it explicitly say 12RT cores? I must have missed that.
 
But Zom! I'm missing some fun hype train activities right here. I know this might just be a bubble that is gonna pop and let everyone down when reality becomes real but... Fun baseless speculation time!

If Nintendo really did try to make this docked version have more/less watts on a 12SM chip:

10W (less!? not like this Nintendo, not like this): >2TF?
15W (keeping it similar to og switch): ~2.5TF?
25W (here we go!): ~4TF?
35W (sweet sweet fan noise): ~5TF?!?!?!?!?

Do some chip maths for us Zom!! What would those numbers look like, in your educated guesstimate?
Sure, I'll just do some quick clocks.

Portable
400MHz ->1.228TFLOPs
500MHz ->1.536TFLOPs
600MHz ->1.843TFLOPs

Docked
768MHz (Switch docked clock) ->2.36TFLOPs
1GHz -> 3.07TFLOPs
1.152GHz -> 3.539TFLOPs
1.3GHz -> 3.993TFLOPs
1.5GHz -> 4.6TFLOPs
1.8GHz -> 5.53TFLOPs
2GHz -> 6.14TFLOPs

Realistically, I think only the first 4 for Docked would be possible with such a big GPU, with DLSS on top, it would be a current gen console and match fidelity with expectations, would sit right between XBSS and XBSX.
Oh, did it explicitly say 12RT cores? I must have missed that.
Yeah, it said 12RT for Drake and 16RT for Orin. I'm just trying to preserve the known specs that we have without taking into account theories, maybe Dakhil will be able to fill out a list for the OP of known specs, also what that data sheet with benchmarks might be is actually tensor cores and gives 16.6TOPs I think for Drake.
 
Sure, I'll just do some quick clocks.

Portable
400MHz ->1.228TFLOPs
500MHz ->1.536TFLOPs
600MHz ->1.843TFLOPs

Docked
768MHz (Switch docked clock) ->2.36TFLOPs
1GHz -> 3.07TFLOPs
1.152GHz -> 3.539TFLOPs
1.3GHz -> 3.993TFLOPs
1.5GHz -> 4.6TFLOPs
1.8GHz -> 5.53TFLOPs
2GHz -> 6.14TFLOPs

Realistically, I think only the first 4 for Docked would be possible with such a big GPU, with DLSS on top, it would be a current gen console and match fidelity with expectations, would sit right between XBSS and XBSX.

Yeah, it said 12RT for Drake and 16RT for Orin. I'm just trying to preserve the known specs that we have without taking into account theories, maybe Dakhil will be able to fill out a list for the OP of known specs, also what that data sheet with benchmarks might be is actually tensor cores and gives 16.6TOPs I think for Drake.
I do say though if they added a Peizoelectirc cooler in the dock they likely could push 2Ghz for the GPU clock.

Those damn things can reach-sub 0 temps on the backs of them and because it would be in the dock it would get plenty of power to feed it assuming they just give it a new wallwart+cable to plug into the dock.
 
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