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Discussion Do you think Switch 2 will be able to beat any of the sales records set by Switch?

Truno

Truno

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Switch is an absolute monster that continuously broke hardware and software sales records left and right. Most recently, Super Mario Wonder broke the record for the biggest launch of a Mario title. Before that, TotK did the same for Zelda, and it's expected that Switch will beat the PS2 for the record of the highest selling video game platform of all time.

After this impressive run is done, do you think that the Switch 2 will be able to beat any of the software or hardware sales records set by its predecessor?
 
I think they're going to have a hard time replicating that level of success and Nintendo doesn't have the greatest track record of following up huge successes.

I think the X factor could have nothing to do with gaming though, I think it could be the movies, if those continue to have massive success and take off like a MCU type of craze, that could drive Nintendo hardware sales just on that basis.

But I think 100+ mill should be the baseline of what Nintendo wants to get to. 140-150 mill again will be ... tough. Probably more competition, the "newness" of the hybrid concept won't be as prevalent, no BoTW to start with, etc. etc. But again, the impact the Nintendo movies may have could swing the tide.
 
OctoSplattack said:
Software, probably, if everything goes well. Not sure if they could manage it with hardware, though.
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Beat by a couple minutes!

Other than that, I imagine Switch 2 will beat out Switch’s European market sales, there’s room to grow there.
 
Maybe if they find huge success in a region where they don't currently have much of a presence

My assumption though is yeah, software might mostly maintain the kind of momentum they've built during this generation but the hardware numbers are gonna be hard to repeat short of another pandemic
 
Quite frankly, I don't think so. More expensive games/hardware, worse economy, no pandemic (hopefully), and social media taking a turn for the worse all combine to make worse conditions.

Even with better AAA third-party support with day and date releases, it's still in heavy question.
 
Nope, but it won't be a failure either.

In my opinion, it's going to be a DS -> 3DS sales situation.

My 3 reasons are:

1) The portability and hybrid nature of the Switch will no longer be unique.

When the Switch came out, seeing games like Skyrim and Doom running on a portable was amazing. Nowadays, it's a common thing with how many portable steam machines there are available.

2) There's no pandemic (hopefully) to boost its sales to the stratosphere.

3) It won't have a genre-defining game like BotW at launch to boost sales.
 
i think, HW-wise, switch 2 may be able to have a bigger first month or quarter than switch just based off of the hype for it and the switch being a proven concept now. it could also possibly have a bigger holiday spike at some point if they play their cards correctly with a revision or a move tie-in. idk, there's definitely possibilities though, it won't surpass the switch's LTD, of course.

SW-wise, they should easily be able to set more records. nintendo has done a great job at growing their IP and seems like they have a pretty good route to success for their games nowadays.
 
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It will get better third party support.
Maybe even software ratio.
Hardware sales? Difficult to tell at this point. Would have to see how the launch develops to have a clearer idea.
 
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Hard to say. The future is very uncertain.

While investors hate the idea of no growth. Just matching the OG Switch would be an accomplishment. No console has had a successful transition on that scale since PS1-PS2. For every Wii you got a Wii U. For an Xbox 360, you got a Xbox One. For a PS2, you got a PS3.
 
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Doubtful. Switch was another lightning in a bottle moment. I’m expecting it to fall short of the current model by 20-40m in sales, as there will be plenty of people who got their fill of the idea and a couple of games and have since moved on.

They may come back for the system after the next one like one of my friends who had a Wii and a few games and has a Switch and like one two games. But they’re not going to be there for the next one unless there’s a cracking good novelty factor again.
 
I think it will because Switch 2 will have a greater life span than Switch 1.

I think it will have essentially two generations within it. Switch 2 will have a second Mario Kart game. Fact is the development costs are just too high for another big jump with tech that isn't just making development cheaper.
 
Never say never. Depends on what Switch 2 will have to offer and how well they manage to position the uniqueness of this new hardware. Yet alone if they even want that.
 
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I think it will have better first 3 years than Switch 1 and most of the big releases will have record sales during their first months (Mario 3D, Mario Kart etc.)
The 4th year of Switch was during the pandemic and without those sales would possibly go down from previous years, something that I expect will happen with Switch 2.
Switch 1 will possibly reach/exceed 150 MILL before the release of Switch 2. If Switch 2 sells between 100 and 110 MILL before the release of Switch 3 I would consider it a success.
 
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ReyVGM said:
Nope, but it won't be a failure either.

In my opinion, it's going to be a DS -> 3DS sales situation.
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The 3DS sold like half the units the DS sold and there's no way that's gonna happen this time.

The Switch, as a brand, is way stronger than the DS was at the end of its life.
 
I don't see the Switch as a lightning in a bottle or a fad. It is conceptually sound and could last as long as gaming itself will continue, as it is essentially additional form factor(s) and isn't tied to a specific type of game. Therefore I don't anticipate a massive dropoff in sales.
 
Yes because Nintendo has the capacity to support its hardware with quality software for every possible demographic and taste all by itself. Previous hardware that sold less than its predecessor was due to a lack of software for a variety of reasons.

Nintendo is also a more global brand now than it was in the 2010’s. They have sold a lot of Switch hardware and software in Europe and southeast Asia and their international distribution channels are growing. They have also localized games into dialects like Mexican Spanish rather than only Iberian Spanish.
 
Truno said:
Switch is an absolute monster that continuously broke hardware and software sales records left and right. Most recently, Super Mario Wonder broke the record for the biggest launch of a Mario title. Before that, TotK did the same for Zelda, and it's expected that Switch will beat the PS2 for the record of the highest selling video game platform of all time.

After this impressive run is done, do you think that the Switch 2 will be able to beat any of the software or hardware sales records set by its predecessor?
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think it's far too early to say when the machine hasn't been unveiled and we don't have any idea what the launch lineup will be like. also no one could have predicted the pandemic, the launch of the xbox series consoles and ps5 or generally the state of the world right now.

if nintendo really do adopt an apple model for hardware, the sales will matter less compared to lifetime software sales and growth of people playing nintendo games. most important thing they want is to make sure that people are still buying nintendo games well into the switch 2 and switch 3's lifespans
 
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I'll consider it a success of it reaches 90 to 100mi.

It will never beat switch 1, just like Sony will never best playstation 2 success.
 
I think, broadly, it'll have A year better than Nintendo Switch's best year. Maybe launch year, maybe the year after, but unless Nintendo flubs it in some sense, NG Switch should have all the market appeal of Nintendo Switch PLUS the market appeal of a modern home console, as long as they have third parties on board at least trying to treat it as an equal.

I think the Nintendo Switch business is healthy, and so too is the brand. NG Switch will benefit from this. As long as Nintendo makes new games people want, and as long as people are engaged with existing games, you have a baseline of sales from people replacing and upgrading. Then you have the additional power allowing for broader third party support, you have every COD, and it's a handheld, and now you genuinely have the eye of a lot of hardcore players. People buying a Switch for the first time will get a NG Switch, people replacing or getting back into Nintendo or Switch will buy a NG Switch, people who want to play "hardcore games" on the go will buy a NG Switch. It's like an appliance in the minds of a lot of consumers, and you replace your appliances every few years, and that's normal.

I don't think PC handhelds are materially relevant to Nintendo's success or market penetration. It's a genuinely different beast, and a lot of hardcore gamers are people who play only on console for various reasons, such as myself, or people with a PC who are tempted into a new device not only by formfactor but by games they will never officially get on PC. Nintendo is the only first party publisher providing such assurances at present. I think the trend I've seen online and among my friends of PC gamers getting a Switch as their secondary machine will continue.

What NG Switch could do if Nintendo plays every card right, has the right branding, the right price, the right games ready, the right node, the right design, and the right third party games, is become the default. Why spend $500 on a 4K home console for EA Sports FC, Call of Duty, and GTA, when you could spend $400-450 on a 4K hybrid console, that has all those games, plus it's a handheld, plus it has tabletop mode, plus it comes with two controllers, plus it has Mario Kart, and Super Smash Bros., and since it's backwards compatible, it either plays dozens of games you already have, or opens up a huge backlog of games you missed the last couple years.

It's a big set of IFs! But if the answers are YES, then it becomes the most obvious choice. Most consumers don't care that it's reconstructed 4K or the image quality is degraded or the draw distance is a third closer to the camera, they care that it can play the games they want and looks good on the TV set they own.
 
Truno said:
Switch is an absolute monster that continuously broke hardware and software sales records left and right. Most recently, Super Mario Wonder broke the record for the biggest launch of a Mario title. Before that, TotK did the same for Zelda, and it's expected that Switch will beat the PS2 for the record of the highest selling video game platform of all time.

After this impressive run is done, do you think that the Switch 2 will be able to beat any of the software or hardware sales records set by its predecessor?
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Sure when Nintendo decides to keep Switch 2 around for 10+ years. 😛
 
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as nintendo grows their brand outside of video games, i expect it to lead back into it, yes i beleive it can outsell the switch as long as it tries to break into markets as the cheaper option. (how sony did it with the ps1 way back then)

new markets
and extreme brand growth

are the two keys to that though.
 
The only way I see it even getting close is if the next Mario movie and Zelda movie make people who usually wouldn't get a system, get one

And who knows what other franchises they bring to the big screen, it could all help.
 
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unkindlynice said:
I think it will because Switch 2 will have a greater life span than Switch 1.

I think it will have essentially two generations within it. Switch 2 will have a second Mario Kart game. Fact is the development costs are just too high for another big jump with tech that isn't just making development cheaper.
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Yeah there will probably be a switch 2 pro 😀
 
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I have meager expectations. I don't think it will beat it in overall hardware sales. Mainly because it's going to be more expensive. While it might be proportional to inflation prices for electronics, people's wages haven't really kept the same... And I find it hard for the same parents to spend $400 on a console, not to mention we'll also be seeing $70 games. The switch had that advantage of affordability and multiplayer right out the box with two joycons. So it's gonna be interesting to see how well it sells. Over 100 million is possible if they play their cards right.
 
Probably not, given we probably won't have another pandemic and there is a lot more handheld competition now.

But it'll still do well as Nintendo handhelds do.
 
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Hardware sales total wise, definitely not.

Whereas the switch effectively invented the hybrid console market, there is now significant competition that the switch didn't have to deal with for a lot of its life. They're still going to come out on top because nobody really punches in Nintendo's league when it comes to the handheld market, but they don't have a monopoly any more.
 
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I don’t think hardware sales will beat the Switch, it’s really tough to follow up that kind of massive achievement and overtake it, as the PS3 and 3DS found out, only the PS1-PS2 has really done it. We’ve seen how hard it is to get anywhere near 150m.

I do think it’ll still be a massive success though, as long as they stick with the same core hybrid concept. Portables sell, as you can sell multiple devices to a family, and they work for people who don’t have a whole media centre to themselves. There’s a huge bracket of ‘massive success’ between 100m sales and the heights of the DS, Switch and PS2.

I think they’ll lean on a new Mario Kart to ‘drive’ sales (sorry).
 
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Truno said:
Switch is an absolute monster that continuously broke hardware and software sales records left and right. Most recently, Super Mario Wonder broke the record for the biggest launch of a Mario title. Before that, TotK did the same for Zelda, and it's expected that Switch will beat the PS2 for the record of the highest selling video game platform of all time.

After this impressive run is done, do you think that the Switch 2 will be able to beat any of the software or hardware sales records set by its predecessor?
Click to expand...
no, i expecting Switch sucessor to end it lifecycle at 120/130 milions consoles sold at maximum, replicating Switch sucess will be very hard, if Switch sucessor could sold at least 100 milions consoles(it could be considered a sucess, in software sales it might be closer to Switch, if Nintendo releases generation defyning games such as BOTW(in Switch sucessor case it will problaby be the next 3D Mario)
 
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I'm expecting it to have sales stronger than any other console in history within its first 3 years and for it to peak during 2027, with key titles like 3D Mario, Mario Kart, Animal Crossing, Pokemon and Smash already having made their way into the library. While it was after this period when Switch really blew up thanks to the pandemic, Switch 2 will instead start to slowly decline, further accelerated by the launch of the tenth generation consoles.

If Switch will end up with around 150 million consoles sold, Switch 2 shall end up at around 125 million as long as Nintendo delivers, which I reckon is what the Switch would have ended up doing without the pandemic boost.

I don't know about game sales, 50 million is a lot to ask for of the next Animal Crossing. I think the "B" tier franchises like Metroid, Fire Emblem, Xenoblade, etc. have a much better shot at breaking records as long as they keep growing in scope and popularity.
 
Bigger launch.

They'll be able to put out a press release after two weeks saying "Switch 2 is the most briskly paced Nintendo hardware launch worldwide of all time", or something vague like that, and be telling the truth.

After that, though, no.
 
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No. Unless something goes wrong, Switch should beat Ps2 in the next 2-3 years. after that happens, no console will ever reach the same success as Switch.
And then there's software. Pretty much every Nintendo Series got it's best selling entry on switch, no way that happens again
 
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I think they're lining up one hell of a launch for Switch 2

There has to be some upside to all this waiting, right?


(As for the question, probably not but I think it can still do really well if they don't shoot themselves in the foot)
 
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I think it's going to be almost impossible for the successor to beat the Switch's hardware record, let alone surpass 100 million units.
I think Nintendo would be very happy if it they can sell 100 million units in the 10 year lifecycle of the successor.

I don't think it's impossible for the successor system to surpass the Switch in terms of software sales, but it certainly won't be easy as it will depend on a lot of factors. If I have to guess, Nintendo will place more focus on increasing the software attach rate and user engagement time on the successor system.
 
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It's no sure thing, but I don't see why not. Some people will say that hybrid is no longer a fresh exciting gimmick, but I don't think it's the kind of thing people just tire of like a Wii Balance Board, and none of the other competition like Deck or Ally or Claw have thus far measured up to Switch's ankle. The main difference going in this time is that their last console wasn't a colossal disaster, so I think in a world where neither Switch 1 nor Switch 2 were supply-limited in their first year Switch 2 could come out ahead, and so be the best-selling year 1 console ever... but infinity isn't a choice, so it will just be a matter of which has greater supply.
 
no

it will face the sequel-console tick tock and I think Nintendo knows this. I think that will be a crucial part of the logic behind it’s positioning, and I think Nintendo are clever enough to know that going in and plan on it.
 
In general no, the handheld hybrid market is more competitive now and the switch had a once in a lifetime pandemic hit at the perfect moment for a second wind (yes the supply chain issues did affect the switch down the line but that was nothing compared to what it gained as well as the harm it did to the competition). I can see a few series getting their highest selling game on the system though; Prime 4 as a crossgen title will almost certainly be the best selling metroid if it's even slightly good, Xenoblade 4 could be the best seller in its series due to being the start of a new arc, etc. I have little hope for the major IPs (zelda, mario, pokemon, etc.) beating switch 1 sales.
 
It's a successor console that will probably be less innovative than the Switch, and the market conditions aren't what they were. I'm sure it'll do more than fine, but I don't see it outselling the Switch.
 
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Suswave said:
no

it will face the sequel-console tick tock and I think Nintendo knows this. I think that will be a crucial part of the logic behind it’s positioning, and I think Nintendo are clever enough to know that going in and plan on it.
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Ehh. I don't think this is a very well-established pattern, beyond "overconfident companies sometimes do stupid things". And we sometimes see something like PS1/GBA blowing away previous sales records, to be immediately followed up by PS2/DS blowing them away even more.
Zeal543 said:
In general no, the handheld hybrid market is more competitive now and the switch had a once in a lifetime pandemic hit at the perfect moment for a second wind (yes the supply chain issues did affect the switch down the line but that was nothing compared to what it gained as well as the harm it did to the competition).
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However much credit one wants to give to pandemic year, I don't think 2020 is good enough to explain continued far-above-average numbers now 3+ years later. Switch is still a hot thing that will get huge again when they drop something new.
 
It depends on lots of factors but it will be a difficult task to exceed the first Switch. If Nintendo gets, marketing right, stellar 3rd party support, continues the string of 1st party hits with a regular release schedule, and has fair pricing I think it will be extremely successful(greater than 100 million). But too eclipse the Switch 1 sales, there will need to be a certain X factors to push it.
 
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Quite possible. The handheld market is ever growing with no hint of slowing down. Nintendo needs to deliver a outstanding first party lineup in addition of a full third party one to reach the heights Switch has risen.
 
I doubt it. There is a reason Sony hasn't been able to surpass the success of the PS2, and it doesn't appear that PS5 is on pace to change that. Getting to 100 million units sold is very difficult, but quite a few consoles have either hit that number or were within a stones throw of it. Getting to 150+ million units is basically lightning in a bottle, good look repeating that.
 
I think worldwide launch day/week/month numbers could do well and possibly exceed Switch's launch. I have my doubts on lifetime sales expectations, although I still expect it to do at minimum 70-80m units and possibly upwards of 100m which is still pretty good.

Switch to me had a bunch of things all lining up perfectly. The home console twins closing up shop on their older systems getting ready to release their new ones, Switch as a concept was still new and low amount of direct competition, pandemic resulted in not only consumers having a lot more spare liquidity but also resulted in shortages for parts for the console twins new systems while Switch didn't have quite the same issues keeping pace by then meaning consumers could have easier access to picking up the system, etc.
 
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I think it's gonna be really difficult for the Switch 2 to sell more than 160M, but it may be possible if a lot of things get in the right place:

Greatest launch, with not that many shortages
Great games
Long cycle
Different models or HW updates
Better or close sales in all main regions (Americas, Japan, Europe)
Better or official distribution in new countries (China, India, the Middle East, and many African countries)
Something unexpected that helps, some X Factor that we have no idea 🤯
 
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JoshuaJSlone said:
Ehh. I don't think this is a very well-established pattern, beyond "overconfident companies sometimes do stupid things". And we sometimes see something like PS1/GBA blowing away previous sales records, to be immediately followed up by PS2/DS blowing them away even more.
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I don't think the DS was seen as a "sequel" to the GBA the same way this is estimated to be.

The PS2, sure – but that was arguably a different time, and the sequel to a true first foray into the medium by Sony.

Plus, tech trends are slowing, significantly. They may pick back up, but I think we're bound to see a little bit of pullback.

There are plenty of other reasons that the Wii -> Wii U / DS -> 3DS shifts were rougher, hopefully not to be replicated this time.

The Switch's popularity stems from its wide appeal to a specific (but broad) segment – a segment that is less likely to want a "powerhouse" style system.

I would argue that there's less immediate gain in that arena by releasing a "more powerful" Switch that's fundamentally similar.

But, that is assuming a lot. We'll see! I might be completely off base.

As of now, though, without having seen the device... I think they're going to do a good job, but aren't expecting the same level of success.

And I think that tether to reality has kept them much steadier at sea than other companies.
 
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