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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (New Staff Post, Please read)

I imagine they wouldn’t have customized the process unless it improved performance, yield, or price.
Correct. I was thinking of scenario where we compare a hypothetical T239 on 4N, vs T239 on N4, etc. Other than pricing potentially being the major difference, I am not sure it would substantially alter performance or battery life for the hypothetical Switch 2 unit.

I could be way off base though here.
 
since we learned about Drake. 8N was/is difficult for a chip this size if they want decent clocks and battery life

Exactly. 8N would have been perfectly viable for a smaller chip. If Nintendo and Nvidia had settled on a 6-8 SM chip then 8N would have been a node that made sense. However, once we knew that it would be a 12SM chip, squaring that with 8N becomes a nearly impossible task. It creates so many problems that are instantly solved by either going with less SMs or by going with a smaller process node. All things that Nvidia/Nintendo would have been aware of at the beginning of development.

I know we have argued about this a lot, but I just expect games to be installed into memory for the Switch 2. So many third-party games have built their titles around fast transfer speeds that asking them to use slower cart storage would be a huge pain. Expecting 512 GBs of UFS 3.1 and mandatory installs.

Possible, and we should know before too long. I personally don't think they leaning into the ultra fast storage as much as Sony and Microsoft have done, but seeing as how games on PC aren't requiring ultra fast SSD's, I think the notion that it would be a big hurdle for porting to SNG is an exaggeration. Physical games in Japan is still very relevant and I do think Nintendo will choose to have games playable off the cartridges rather than forcing installs to internal memory. I do not expect to see cartridge's speeds exceed USF3.1, so anything around 1GB/s should be fine.
 
Color theory is gaining momentum day by day. This is for the new Kuro No Kiseki Game.

2024021412261500-0756F30FDD143619A0ACE821C9DFEBF2.jpg


I believe this one was already known. And it is another Falcom game after Ys X, so not as compelling as another developer/publisher doing it.
 
Color theory is gaining momentum day by day. This is for the new Kuro No Kiseki Game.

2024021412261500-0756F30FDD143619A0ACE821C9DFEBF2.jpg


Nintendo must have changed something in their certification process even for devs that don't have access to a Switch 2 dev kit yet.
 
So the reason I even stated FSR is working on the original Switch is to show that it is agnostic.
I guess I misread. It sounded to me like you're saying Nintendo has the only handheld with FSR.
You stating that FSR FG running on 3000 series cards doesn't mean much is inaccurate.
If the RTX 30 cards received a slightly lower quality version of RTX FG, then what's the unique selling point of Lovelace over Ampere?
Those cards would have sold way worse if the previous generation can do everything the new cards do but slightly less performant.

Also even though DLSS has scaling with GPU and Tensor cores allotments, the OFA is independent of the GPU and has its own metrics.
Yes AMD and Nvidia's solutions are fundamentally different, but the fact that people have found a way to use AMD's algorithm to mod RTX 20 & 30 series cards to generate frames just proves its possible but just with a slight hit to image quality.
It's still fairly recent of a mod but I'm sure more videos will pop up of lower-mid level cards using this solution as well...
It shows that FSR FG is cheap enough to work on cards that can't do DLSS FG, but that's a far cry from evidence that NVIDIA can just dial down DLSS FG to using a fraction of the tensor cores. If they'd want DLSS FG used on a Switch for the publicity it would bring, it wouldn't mean much if they essentially had to rewrite a new more-like-FSR version to do it.
Revising your console from 24 to 21 million sales is no small feat, especially when you're competitors are:
  • An old, underpowered console (compared to yours), that is dominating the charts and is on the eve of a successor console;
  • You're "proper" competitor only sells a 1/3 of what you sell.
It's worth noting that 21m would still be a million more than PS4 ever shipped in a year. But they clearly overestimated how much extra juice they had once they got out of PS5 shortage territory.
In the same way the market hasn’t said „no“ to VR and certainly not to AR. One could argue that the market said „no“ to VR in its current state but even that is up for debate. The Quest 3 and the Vision Pro are still hampered by todays technology and still they‘re both doing way better than any other headset before.
I wish we had more up-to-date numbers in general. There was a 10+ million figure going around for Quest 2, but that's more than two years out of date by now.
Still annoyed that the Google glass small display on the side concept got ignored.
Having a hud for navigation, messages, checklists, fast search, etc would be huge, a SmartWatch needs to be looked at (not only for me visible). All of the big players try to do a screen replacement at the moment, instead of doing similar things as a SmartWatch as a hud. If I want a high resolution screen I have it in my pocket. (For now)
I thought that's what the latest Meta/Ray-ban glasses were when they announced them last year, but the text they were showing in images was just a stand-in for audio messages in the real thing.
 
Exactly. 8N would have been perfectly viable for a smaller chip. If Nintendo and Nvidia had settled on a 6-8 SM chip then 8N would have been a node that made sense. However, once we knew that it would be a 12SM chip, squaring that with 8N becomes a nearly impossible task. It creates so many problems that are instantly solved by either going with less SMs or by going with a smaller process node. All things that Nvidia/Nintendo would have been aware of at the beginning of development.



Possible, and we should know before too long. I personally don't think they leaning into the ultra fast storage as much as Sony and Microsoft have done, but seeing as how games on PC aren't requiring ultra fast SSD's, I think the notion that it would be a big hurdle for porting to SNG is an exaggeration. Physical games in Japan is still very relevant and I do think Nintendo will choose to have games playable off the cartridges rather than forcing installs to internal memory. I do not expect to see cartridge's speeds exceed USF3.1, so anything around 1GB/s should be fine.

Yes, 1 GB/s is fine, I just am skeptical Nintendo's carts will hit 1 GB/s. Obviously games on some older engines are fine with slower transfer speeds, but as more and more games release on UE5, I think those games would have a rough time running off carts if the transfer speed is like 200 MB/s.

I would expect a huge amount of Nintendo published games to use UE5 next gen as well so it's not just third-parties (well, I mean, they would be third parties developing, but a first-party would be publishing...)
 
Yes, 1 GB/s is fine, I just am skeptical Nintendo's carts will hit 1 GB/s. Obviously games on some older engines are fine with slower transfer speeds, but as more and more games release on UE5, I think those games would have a rough time running off carts if the transfer speed is like 200 MB/s.

I would expect a huge amount of Nintendo published games to use UE5 next gen as well so it's not just third-parties (well, I mean, they would be third parties developing, but a first-party would be publishing...)
Some‘ll use it, but the majority (especially in house developed ones) will use modul system.
 
The more partners they hire, the more of their games will be using UE5. Obviously Nintendo themselves probably won't use it, but UE5 is becoming the standard for developers for hire.
Princess Peach Showtime uses UE (not sure 4 or 5, probably UE4), Pikmin 4 also uses UE4. There's precedence for Nintendo using UE4 on Switch, what makes you think they won't use UE5?

I guess we're talking about Nintendo outsourced projects. Which would make sense, if it was in-house, they probably like to dev from ground up on the game.
 
Pikmin 4 and Yoshi are made by external devs for hire and Peach probably is as well...
Yeah, I just edited my comment to add a bit of context. If it was NIntendo in-house dev, they're probably more likely to dev the game from ground up as opposed to going with an engine like UE or Unity.
 
Princess Peach Showtime uses UE (not sure 4 or 5, probably UE4), Pikmin 4 also uses UE4. There's precedence for Nintendo using UE4 on Switch, what makes you think they won't use UE5?
Has dev for showtime been confirmed? I woudnt be surprised if showtime is 5. It woudnt make a practical difference anyway, if you are not a dev. They woudnt use any visual features beyond 4 anyway.

Whenever they partner with other devs (as in Pikmin 3), UE is an obvious choice.
 
Color theory is gaining momentum day by day. This is for the new Kuro No Kiseki Game.

2024021412261500-0756F30FDD143619A0ACE821C9DFEBF2.jpg



I didn't watch Jake's video about this until he announced he was leaving GameXplain.

Honestly it might have seemed silly at first, but there are more examples popping up. Going to be interesting next month!
 
Talking about game cards, what are the types of technology that could be used for them? Do we have an idea of potential tech?
This is where I have issues. I don't know if manufactured game cards are cheap enough, but I know that for AAA games where the bigger expenses come in, they want physical and want high capacity.

I don't know if Nintendo goes can find big, fast, cheap, and secure. I suspect that they may get creative and do big, slow, cheap, and secure, require installs, and use the card as a proof of ownership.

EDIT: An interesting data point. On DekuDeals, they allow you to filter by digital or physical. They show 13159 digital titles, and 2301 physical titles. That means to me than 17% of titles (or so) are both physical and digital. I don't know what the ratio of garbage shovelware is.
 
I thought that's what the latest Meta/Ray-ban glasses were when they announced them last year, but the text they were showing in images was just a stand-in for audio messages in the real thing.
Yeah... I get people are kinda annoyed by cameras, then again everybody is constantly recording and holding their phone anyway...
We have the tech to project a decent resolution image (glass was 640*360), even enough for basic instruction videos.(ok, getting that over Bluetooth is a problem, maybe a 144 video or lower colour depth...)
Price to high, people freaking out (and then throwing all their data to tictok temu and who else, defending ai and using chat gpt).
And now companies start to sell us those AI pins... Isn't that essentially what glass was, just in pin format, so less useful?

Off topic rant over ^^"
 
Yes, 1 GB/s is fine, I just am skeptical Nintendo's carts will hit 1 GB/s. Obviously games on some older engines are fine with slower transfer speeds, but as more and more games release on UE5, I think those games would have a rough time running off carts if the transfer speed is like 200 MB/s.

I would expect a huge amount of Nintendo published games to use UE5 next gen as well so it's not just third-parties (well, I mean, they would be third parties developing, but a first-party would be publishing...)

Another quick search appears to show that 3D Nand should have read speeds right around 500MB/s. I believe current Switch carts generally read at about 60-70MB/s.

Do you have some examples of UE5 games on PC that are severely hindered by a standard hard drive? I understand that a PS5 exclusive or Xbox Series exclusive can really lean hard on the read speeds of the SSD drive, but if they are multi platform games that will also be releasing on PC, I doubt they are requiring fast SSD's. Until I see real evidence of this being a problem with UE5, I will have to assume it is a theoretical problem that may or may not come to fruition.

My theory on Nintendo using Unreal Engine for some games is to help further optimization of the game engine for their platform. Nintendo uses the engine and throughout development works with Epic to further optimize the engine and those improvements will pay off for third parties using it. Basically its a self serving decision and not because they needed UE4 to create games like Yoshis Crafted World, Pikmin 4 or Princess Peach Showtime. These are all games that they could have created with their in house engines.

For arguments sake, lets assume that a 500MB/s read speed might be an issue for some UE5 games being ported to SNG. Would having 4-6GB more ram than the Xbox Series S resolve the problem? Would developers rather have a faster SSD or an extra 4-6GB of ram that is significantly faster than an SSD? Its a possible factor if Nintendo is going with 16GB of ram.
 
Any reason why Nintendo can’t do a full blown Switch 2 hardware + Switch 1/2 games direct instead of a partner direct now and possibly Switch 2 next month?
Nope. Nintendo could tease in a partner direct. They could have done it months ago. Nintendo is a grown ass company and they can do as they like. There's plenty of reasons to guess they would announce any specific amount of time before release.

We've honestly heard enough to believe that they're releasing this year, and have a bunch of rumors and conjecture to believe that they're either releasing in May/June time frame or the September-November time frame. We don't have anything first hand though. @Shareholder Chad has someone he believes to be in the know telling him that it's May/June, and past patterns suggest October-November. NateDrake has people he believes to be in the know telling him that it's announcing in March.
 
Any reason why Nintendo can’t do a full blown Switch 2 hardware + Switch 1/2 games direct instead of a partner direct now and possibly Switch 2 next month?
Switch 1 games wouldn't have their desired spotlight, the same applies to the new hardware. In a Switch 2 presentation, they won't spend time talking about the next DLC coming for Scrimblo Bimbo: The Video Game, they'll showcase heavy-hitters, and heavy-hitters only.
 
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Any reason why Nintendo can’t do a full blown Switch 2 hardware + Switch 1/2 games direct instead of a partner direct now and possibly Switch 2 next month?
General Directs (the type that we get excited for) have hosts, requires editing, planning, time, and coordination with other devs for content.

Focusing energy & resources in parallel with March reveal, if the reveal is like full blowout (like January 2017), is not going to work out well.

This makes me think the March reveal will be all-hands type of presentation, big-tent event, assuming the Partner Showcase rumor ends up being true

BTW:

 
General Directs (the type that we get excited for) have hosts, requires editing, planning, time, and coordination with other devs for content.

Focusing energy & resources in parallel with March reveal, if the reveal is like full blowout (like January 2017), is not going to work out well.

This makes me think the March reveal will be all-hands type of presentation, big-tent event, assuming the Partner Showcase rumor ends up being true

BTW:


maybe they scrapped the partner direct and decided to put it on twitter instead haha
 
Since Nvidia is supposedly to start and release ARM CPUs line in 2025 for consumers, im sure they working on some kinda BC Emulation, there is no way
 
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I guess I misread. It sounded to me like you're saying Nintendo has the only handheld with FSR.

It shows that FSR FG is cheap enough to work on cards that can't do DLSS FG, but that's a far cry from evidence that NVIDIA can just dial down DLSS FG to using a fraction of the tensor cores. If they'd want DLSS FG used on a Switch for the publicity it would bring, it wouldn't mean much if they essentially had to rewrite a new more-like-FSR version to do it.

Again the video I previously posted shows the mod working on RTX 20/30 cards, but still using DLSS as it's upscaling solution.
I fully expect if an FSR algorithm can be modified into an existing graphic library, then Nvidia could create a custom version to work for Switch 2 that is performant enough for that target hardware.
 
maybe they scrapped the partner direct and decided to put it on twitter instead haha

Im starting to lean towards no Nintendo Direct this month. I believe the reason some people were thinking a Partners Showcase was because they werent hearing about a General Direct and not because they were getting leaks about a Partners Showcase. Its a fair assumption. We always get a February Direct and when nothing was leaking, it is reasonable to think maybe Nintendo is doing a smaller Partners Showcase this year, especially if rumors for a SNG reveal in March are true.

The truth is there may not be enough to even warrant a Partners Showcase. Indies will continue to release games on Switch for years to come but your AAA publishers have basically already moved on from Switch. Anything that hasn't been announced yet and will end up being cross gen will simply be held back for the SNG reveal.
 
Im starting to lean towards no Nintendo Direct this month. I believe the reason some people were thinking a Partners Showcase was because they werent hearing about a General Direct and not because they were getting leaks about a Partners Showcase. Its a fair assumption. We always get a February Direct and when nothing was leaking, it is reasonable to think maybe Nintendo is doing a smaller Partners Showcase this year, especially if rumors for a SNG reveal in March are true.

The truth is there may not be enough to even warranty a Partners Showcase. Indies will continue to release games on Switch for years to come but your AAA publishers have basically already moved on from Switch. Anything that hasn't been announced yet and will end up being cross gen will simply be held back for the SNG reveal.
I think we might have to start accepting that, if we don't hear anything at 4pm UK time, we might have to give in.

That said, I'm not done yet.

F9t90L_aQAAm5B4.jpg
 
General Directs (the type that we get excited for) have hosts, requires editing, planning, time, and coordination with other devs for content.

Focusing energy & resources in parallel with March reveal, if the reveal is like full blowout (like January 2017), is not going to work out well.

This makes me think the March reveal will be all-hands type of presentation, big-tent event, assuming the Partner Showcase rumor ends up being true

BTW:


I feel like that's a good enough indicator that they plan to either do a direct or are foregoing a direct in favor of doing a bunch of small twitter announcements. It could also be that they want to get these out of the way so that they can do a general direct and announce Switch 2.

I don't know what it is, but it's an indication of something. We may or may not ever know what.
I think we might have to start accepting that, if we don't hear anything at 4pm UK time, we might have to give in.

That said, I'm not done yet.

F9t90L_aQAAm5B4.jpg
February isn't even half over yet. I don't believe that Nintendo's behaviour around directs is that big of an indicator of what their behaviour will be around the directs now.
 
Im starting to lean towards no Nintendo Direct this month. I believe the reason some people were thinking a Partners Showcase was because they werent hearing about a General Direct and not because they were getting leaks about a Partners Showcase. Its a fair assumption. We always get a February Direct and when nothing was leaking, it is reasonable to think maybe Nintendo is doing a smaller Partners Showcase this year, especially if rumors for a SNG reveal in March are true.

The truth is there may not be enough to even warrant a Partners Showcase. Indies will continue to release games on Switch for years to come but your AAA publishers have basically already moved on from Switch. Anything that hasn't been announced yet and will end up being cross gen will simply be held back for the SNG reveal.
Sorry - I thought there were some mentions partner showcases are usually shadow dropped (no announcement, just a Youtube video, no streaming)? I was never expecting an announcement for a hypothetical Partner Showcase tomorrow but if that's not the norm in the past, let me know.
 
Fashion Dreamer, Splatoon 3, Princess Peach Showtime, seems like they could have scraped together a Direct or a Mini if they wanted to. I know this doesn't mean much but it sure seems like something is UP.
 
I think we might have to start accepting that, if we don't hear anything at 4pm UK time, we might have to give in.

That said, I'm not done yet.
If we don't get anything tomorrow morning, I'm in the camp that we won't get anything at all this month. They're just going to use Twitter drops until a March reveal for the Switch 2.

I really doubt Nintendo doesn't have enough for a Partner Direct or at the very least an Indie World this month. If they choose to not have a Direct at all until a March event, it will have been a deliberate choice (UNLESS the Direct was delayed or cancelled due to the Xbox "event" tomorrow).

Edit - that goes for a General Direct as well. With everything we've gotten via Twitter - Side Order, Peach, the third party announcements, plus potential dates for TTYD/LM2 or new title reveals, they could have filled a Mini or a General Direct, even if it would have sucked. There's clearly a strategy here.
 
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February isn't even half over yet. I don't believe that Nintendo's behaviour around directs is that big of an indicator of what their behaviour will be around the directs now.
I meant in terms of "Partner Direct this week". There's still stuff pointing to February in terms of Directs, as there always and forever be until Nintendo has a spur of the moment change, but I'm slowly inching towards the idea that we might not have a Direct this week or, alternatively, Nintendo will pivot to the Switch 2 sooner than I expected.
 
Sorry - I thought there were some mentions partner showcases are usually shadow dropped (no announcement, just a Youtube video, no streaming)? As in we might never get announcement till it actually happens?
Am I the only one that takes groups anything that's more than just a trailer that Nintendo drops as a direct?

I meant in terms of "Partner Direct this week". There's still stuff pointing to February in terms of Directs, as there always and forever be until Nintendo has a spur of the moment change, but I'm slowly inching towards the idea that we might not have a Direct this week or, alternatively, Nintendo will pivot to the Switch 2 sooner than I expected.

I'm really quite good with the concept that they've already produced the Switch 2 announcement video and may drop it anytime between now and the end of GDC. I think they want to get it out there before it's correcting too much incorrect information.
 
I meant in terms of "Partner Direct this week". There's still stuff pointing to February in terms of Directs, as there always and forever be until Nintendo has a spur of the moment change, but I'm slowly inching towards the idea that we might not have a Direct this week or, alternatively, Nintendo will pivot to the Switch 2 sooner than I expected.
... February reveal?
 
Am I the only one that takes groups anything that's more than just a trailer that Nintendo drops as a direct?
A "Twitter Direct?"

I guess that works. Maybe that's why Nate was unsure of the format the whole time. There's no partner showcase. This was it, the "Twitter Direct"

Odd that the date of 15th was mentioned though, unless they were going by Japan time (it's 15th over there now)
 
A "Twitter Direct?"

I guess that works. Maybe that's why Nate was unsure of the format the whole time. There's no partner showcase. This was it, the "Twitter Direct"

Odd that the date of 15th was mentioned though, unless they were going by Japan time (it's 15th over there now)
Pretty much. If Nintendo drops a video that talks about multiple games or a single piece of new hardware, it falls under the "Direct" bucket. Doubly so if it has an announcer or some video of some Nintendo heads or something. A video about a game that includes interviews with the developers also falls under that bucket.
 
Yes Rico, February reveal.


Granted there's a lot that remains unanswered and unknown, but the chance is on the table if we don't see a Nintendo Direct this week.
I'm thinking a Tuesday Mini now. Once Wednesday next week hits I think we're in the end game, as we hit the last few days of February.

27-29th is a real possibility for the new console,

Or March 1st
 
Pretty much. If Nintendo drops a video that talks about multiple games or a single piece of new hardware, it falls under the "Direct" bucket. Doubly so if it has an announcer or some video of some Nintendo heads or something. A video about a game that includes interviews with the developers also falls under that bucket.
I mean, I wouldn't call the Lite Reveal a "Direct". "Direct" is whatever they brand "Direct".

I wonder if they consider the "Direct" brand strong enough to carry a console reveal. A last week of February "Direct" opening with the new console, then all the third party studios working on games for it, close out with the new Mario, and hope for the best.
 
I mean, I wouldn't call the Lite Reveal a "Direct". "Direct" is whatever they brand "Direct".

I wonder if they consider the "Direct" brand strong enough to carry a console reveal. A last week of February "Direct" opening with the new console, then all the third party studios working on games for it, close out with the new Mario, and hope for the best.
I think it is post-covid. Doubly so with the death of E3. I just don't think they need to have a stage presentation. I think a youtube video announcement of that works perfectly well. I think that paired with direct communication to a spectrum of journalists that would be just as effective as flying out everyone to a central location to announce.
 
I think it is post-covid. Doubly so with the death of E3. I just don't think they need to have a stage presentation. I think a youtube video announcement of that works perfectly well. I think that paired with direct communication to a spectrum of journalists that would be just as effective as flying out everyone to a central location to announce.
Agreed, especially since Nintendo's "Big Announcement" videos rake in views like crazy. Their online presence is something that the other two big console makers would kill for.

If Nintendo dropped a trailer online and said "Hey we're going to show off our console in a Nintendo Direct on February 28th", they'd get views like noone else except maybe Rockstar. That's a big deal and would secure a good place into their next console cycle.
 
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I was thinking about the possibility of tomorrow shadow drop to be Switch 2 but after all, not the good moment to unveil it right before Xbox event
Why? Best time. Nintendo is doing a console that can play games specced to the Series X/PS5 and Microsoft is going to be less focused on their own console the same day. Stories would carry both bits of news. I can just about guarantee you that Bowser and Spencer talk and know what the other is going to announce a day or three ahead.
 
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