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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (New Staff Post, Please read)

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Serif said:
zwpJa.gif
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Speedrunning ... i knew it.

Not even once!
 
TechnicalTip6578 said:
that was back in 2020

the last one in 2022 was announced a day prior, so there's no reason for this one to be shadowdropped
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That's equivalent to saying in 2022 that the ones in 2020 were shadowdropped, so there's no reason for this one to be announced a day prior. You can't really predict anything based on patterns this sparse.
 
Multiverse said:
As long as contact lenses and LASIK are a thing, VR will never be a thing. When contact lenses and LASIK cease to exist, that tells me humanity has finally accepted glasses. Not looking for a way out. Then VR will prosper. People only wear glasses because they need to.

The VR people didn’t think this one through mefears. They think it’s a normal thing to wear glasses because they’re… nerds. Most people would rather not do that. I guess sunglasses are a thing, but that is still a very limited use case. No one actually wears it all the time.
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Lol I've seen you in here with this line of reasoning before and it's definitely one of the weirder/funnier VR/AR/wearable tech detractions.
 
I'm a big believer in a $399 USD launch price. If Switch hadn't been so successful, they would have had a price drop by now. There is no reason to believe that Switch couldn't be sitting at $249 or even lower right now in 2024. In reality, we should be talking about an extra $150 worth of cost compare to Switch. A lot of the cost are going to be extremely similar. The primary drivers of increased cost will come from the SOC, display and internal storage. The question is does $150 cover these upgrades? I see no reason to believe that it doesnt.
 
I feel like the continued confidence in $400 is a bit much when Sony today said "yeah, all nodes after 7nm are expensive as fuck and suck, the PS5 still costs a ton to make, it sucks" and when the only products using 4N are absurdly expensive GPUs.

Maybe they get to $400, but people are too confident in that by a lot.
 
Concernt said:
This is my expectation, though I'm prepared for it to be 499.99. That said, the $400 barrier has already been broken considerably in Europe, at the exchange rate at OLED Model's launch it was 410-430USD equivalent, since it was 364.99€. I wouldn't be surprised if they took OLED Model's success, even in Europe, even at such a price, as a green light. That said, OLED Model got a 15€ price drop after a year or so, in Europe, so maybe they learned instead not to push it.

It reminds me that Nintendo's first €70 game was not Tears of the Kingdom but Breath of the Wild. They've tested higher prices in Europe then spread them to the US before, I would be surprised if we get 424.99 or such across the board for Switch 2, on that basis.
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I have seen OLEDs for <300€ next to games <40€ for 1-2 years. Ofc you need where to look but MSRP are kinda a lie
 
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Shareholder Chad said:
It is if it’s a big nothingburger due to a huge switch 2 show next month lol

no disrespect to 3rd parties and indie studios but everyone knows what we want.
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I still think there is a chance the insiders were wrong and a trailer showing the console before a big game reveal on Pokemon day is technically in the cards. I don't see Nintendo leaking the initial reveal of their console all the way back in 2023 at gamescom of all places.
 
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
I feel like the continued confidence in $400 is a bit much when Sony today said "yeah, all nodes after 7nm are expensive as fuck and suck, the PS5 still costs a ton to make, it sucks" and when the only products using 4N are absurdly expensive GPUs.
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The PS5 APU die size is roughly 3x as large as T239 would be on 4N. Even if 4N is double the cost of 6nm (current node for PS5), then it would still be cheaper. We also have the difference in cost for GDDR6 compared to LPDDR5. PS5 has a fast 1TB SSD, much more expensive than the likely 256GB slower SSD SNG will use. The PS5 has a cooling system that is far more elaborate and costly compared to Switch. The Dual Sense controller wouldn't be any cheaper to produce than the Joy Cons. PS5 also had to ride the bubble of increased semiconductor cost for the first three years of its existence. This finally normalized last year with prices coming back down.

Edit:
I'm confident, but I am not saying $399 is an absolute lock. Part of the reason I am confident is because Nintendo would have been targeting a certain price point from the beginning. So going with 12SM's on 4N only makes sense if Nvidia/Nintendo knew that would fall within budget. Yes, things got stupid inflated in 2021 and 2022, but that bubble has burst and prices have normalized.
 
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Goodtwin said:
The PS5 APU die size is roughly 3x as large as T239 would be on 4N. Even if 4N is double the cost of 6nm (current node for PS5), then it would still be cheaper. We also have the difference in cost for GDDR6 compared to LPDDR5. PS5 has a fast 1TB SSD, much more expensive than the likely 256GB slower SSD SNG will use. The PS5 has a cooling system that is far more elaborate and costly compared to Switch. The Dual Sense controller wouldn't be any cheaper to produce than the Joy Cons. PS5 also had to ride the bubble of increased semiconductor cost for the first three years of its existence. This finally normalized last year with prices coming back down.

Edit:
I'm confident, but I am not saying $399 is an absolute lock. Part of the reason I am confident is because Nintendo would have been targeting a certain price point from the beginning. So going with 12SM's on 4N only makes sense if Nvidia/Nintendo knew that would fall within budget. Yes, things got stupid inflated in 2021 and 2022, but that bubble has burst and prices have normalized.
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I'm very doubtful Nintendo ordered an APU this stupidly powerful (seemingly to be able to use UE5 and other modern engines) only to sabotage it by having 256 GBs of slow internal storage. UE5 games and other modern engine games want to be installed on fast internal storage and modern games are in the 100 GB range. Switch games only dodged this because third-parties could kill the texture resolution of their games to lower the size, but that can't happen at the higher resolutions the Switch 2 will likely use.

I'm very confident the Switch 2 will have 512 GBs at 1 GB/s and would be pretty surprised otherwise. It would be a bad mistake if not imo.
 
nitroplum said:
I still think there is a chance the insiders were wrong and a trailer showing the console before a big game reveal on Pokemon day is technically in the cards. I don't see Nintendo leaking the initial reveal of their console all the way back in 2023 at gamescom of all places.
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Giving developers a date is not a "leak" lmao.
 
korok said:
Giving developers a date is not a "leak" lmao.
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Yeah obviously. My point is that information usually doesn't come without an NDA. I have trouble thinking a developer gets trusted by Nintendo and within hours runs to Nate and spills it.
 
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
I'm very doubtful Nintendo ordered an APU this stupidly powerful (seemingly to be able to use UE5 and other modern engines) only to sabotage it by having 256 GBs of slow internal storage
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I didn't say slow, I said slower than PS5's SSD. PS5 has a very fast SSD. Nintendo likely to use a slower SSD primarily because of power draw, but cost would be a factor as well.

Edit:
I did a quick search and UFS3.1 is used in mobile phones and has a transfer rate of 1200MB/s, significantly slower than the PS5 SSD but about 10x faster than your typical MicroSD card. We need to look at the likely read speeds for 3D Nand cartridges. Nintendo isn't going to use internal storage that is considerably faster than their cartridges.
 
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nitroplum said:
Yeah obviously. My point is that information usually doesn't come without an NDA. I have trouble thinking a developer gets trusted by Nintendo and within hours runs to Nate and spills it.
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developers were pretty quick to yap about matrix and botw tech demos at gamescom after signing the NDA of DEATH inside that big red box room.
 
Shareholder Chad said:
I’m gonna post a Lava take here…and look into my crystal ball for 20 years in the future.

Hybrid consoles are looked at as a massive shift in technology philosophy but Nintendo will remain as the only dedicated console manufacturer whilst Sony eventually follows suit with Microsoft in making “certified PlayStation handheld PC’s” likely with custom OS’s as an optional install (like Steam OS).

TV’s, monitors, and the overall desktop standard morphs into a VR/AR spatial computing setup. Of course these devices do not go away but stay as low cost alternatives.

Bonus: Climate/geopolitical migration are words that will become very popular soon. It will become standard advice to have the ability to pack up and permanently move with minimum effort thus driving the need for “battlestations” to be as portable as possible.

Just my guess as to how things go in the next 20 years.
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My biggest (and honestly immediate - I may think of something else eventually) concern is that part of the reason that publishers like consoles is that piracy isn't simple. You have to mod the console. It means that the people with the means to buy games will usually opt to buy games instead of spending the time, energy, and frustration to pirate them. I know that's true for me. When I was in my teens and early 20s I pirated everything, including Windows 95. Now I don't pirate software. It's not worth my time and energy unless I'm enjoying the frustration itself (it happens).

The big exception to this is if Microsoft and Sony get game streaming down pat. If that happens, then it is in their best interests to do so, because all the consumer has to buy (hardware wise) is the controller. Everything else is unnecessary.
 
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
I'm very doubtful Nintendo ordered an APU this stupidly powerful (seemingly to be able to use UE5 and other modern engines) only to sabotage it by having 256 GBs of slow internal storage.
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UFS 4.0's slower than the PlayStation 5's custom internal SSD in terms of the max sequential read speed (4.2 GB/s vs 5.5 GB/s).

Saying that, I think UFS 3.1 with a max sequential read speed of 2.1 GB/s is the best case scenario for Nintendo's new hardware, which should be more than good enough since Mark Cerny mentioned third party developers requested a NVMe SSD with at least a sequential read speed of 1 GB/s for the PlayStation 5.
 
Aether said:
Wait, since when do people expect 4n?
Wasn't 5n the optimistic take, with 7/8n being the "drake was done long ago" take?
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4N is TSMC's custom process for Nvidia, used in its Ada Lovelace processors. Everything after 28 nm are marketing terms for a node's performance rather than corresponding to anything physical.
 
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Goodtwin said:
I didn't say slow, I said slower than PS5's SSD. PS5 has a very fast SSD. Nintendo likely to use a slower SSD primarily because of power draw, but cost would be a factor as well.

Edit:
I did a quick search and UFS3.1 is used in mobile phones and has a transfer rate of 1200MB/s, significantly slower than the PS5 SSD but about 10x faster than your typical MicroSD card. We need to look at the likely read speeds for 3D Nand cartridges. Nintendo isn't going to use internal storage that is considerably faster than their cartridges.
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I know we have argued about this a lot, but I just expect games to be installed into memory for the Switch 2. So many third-party games have built their titles around fast transfer speeds that asking them to use slower cart storage would be a huge pain. Expecting 512 GBs of UFS 3.1 and mandatory installs.
 
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
I know we have argued about this a lot, but I just expect games to be installed into memory for the Switch 2. So many third-party games have built their titles around fast transfer speeds that asking them to use slower cart storage would be a huge pain. Expecting 512 GBs of UFS 3.1 and mandatory installs.
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I think we could see a situation where Nintendo first-party titles are still carts but 3rd parties are digital only.
 
It would be funny if no Direct anything appeared tomorrow morning in a no fanfare upload.

Not a big deal though, we're getting increasingly closer to the Switch 2 announcement.
 
Hermii said:
Nodes are confusing, and half the time the name has nothing to do with the actual tech.

4N is Nvidia's custom version of 5nm.
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I know that (intel 10...), but did not know that Nvidia has their custom version. Heck, how? Since when do they have a foundry?
Don't they produce with Samsung and tsmc?

Fake Edit: ok, tsmc 5n but "special" cause it's Nvidia and they needed something for the marketing. (Not disputing that there ARE slight optimisations, just ridiculing the naming)
 
Shareholder Chad said:
I’m gonna post a Lava take here…and look into my crystal ball for 20 years in the future.

Hybrid consoles are looked at as a massive shift in technology philosophy but Nintendo will remain as the only dedicated console manufacturer whilst Sony eventually follows suit with Microsoft in making “certified PlayStation handheld PC’s” likely with custom OS’s as an optional install (like Steam OS).

TV’s, monitors, and the overall desktop standard morphs into a VR/AR spatial computing setup. Of course these devices do not go away but stay as low cost alternatives.

Bonus: Climate/geopolitical migration are words that will become very popular soon. It will become standard advice to have the ability to pack up and permanently move with minimum effort thus driving the need for “battlestations” to be as portable as possible.

Just my guess as to how things go in the next 20 years.
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Agree with pretty much everything, except for VR.
I think VR, at the least the type were you have to strap a screen to your face, will never be anywhere near mainstream.
I think the true future of VR, that will take at least 30+ years to come are BCI (Brain Computer Interfaces).
 
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Current Predictions:
$399 - I don't know that they are confident that the market will take a higher price than that. They may also fast-track a home console version or Lite version with the same guts for a lower price to get a lower price of entry for consumer that balk at $399.
256GB-1TB of storage - A lot of the pricing depends on when they made their deals. I think if they made their deal today it would definitely be 1TB. Definitely not 128GB
16GB RAM - 12 is still possible, but I think that they'd want RAM parity with PS5 for a bunch of reasons that go into the longevity of the system.
 
Aether said:
I know that (intel 10...), but did not know that Nvidia has their custom version. Heck, how? Since when do they have a foundry?
Don't they produce with Samsung and tsmc?

Fake Edit: ok, tsmc 5n but "special" cause it's Nvidia and they needed something for the marketing. (Not disputing that there ARE slight optimisations, just ridiculing the naming)
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No, it's called TSMC 4N (the proper label) for 5nm, optimized.

Yes, nvidia (in recent history) has used primarily Samsung and TSMC. And yes, a foundry (TSMC I know, but not sure about Samsung) do have "custom node process" for nvidia specifically.

To make it even more confusing, there's TSMC N4, and TSMC 4N. 4N is the one customized for nvidia, a different node process than TSMC N4.
 
darthdiablo said:
No, it's called TSMC 4N (the proper label) for 5nm, optimized.

Yes, nvidia (in recent history) has used primarily Samsung and TSMC. And yes, a foundry (TSMC I know, but not sure about Samsung) do have "custom node process" for nvidia specifically.
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Its impossible to know how much that actually matters.

If you made a Lovelace card on regular unoptimised 5nm, would it perform that different? We don't know.
 
Love all the news that's happened in here the past few days.

But why now????? I have just started buying a house with my wife so money is tied up in that process for a good long while.

So I need your help Fami, how do I convince her that pulling out of a house sale so I can pre order switch 2 is a good idea?
 
ShaunSwitch said:
Love all the news that's happened in here the past few days.

But why now????? I have just started buying a house with my wife so money is tied up in that process for a good long while.

So I need your help Fami, how do I convince her that pulling out of a house sale so I can pre order switch 2 is a good idea?
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Threaten her with divorce <3 A wife is temporary, but Switch 2 is forever
 
ShaunSwitch said:
Love all the news that's happened in here the past few days.

But why now????? I have just started buying a house with my wife so money is tied up in that process for a good long while.

So I need your help Fami, how do I convince her that pulling out of a house sale so I can pre order switch 2 is a good idea?
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No need to sell the house, you just need to convince her you don't need all those high end furnitures.
 
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Hermii said:
Its impossible to know how much that actually matters.

If you made a Lovelace card on regular unoptimised 5nm, would it perform that different? We don't know.
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I didn't say it would perform differently though? I'm just responding to the other comment's questions.

I agree though, difference in performance between 4nm and 5nm, or 4N vs N4 is probably immaterialistic.
 
bmfrosty said:
My biggest (and honestly immediate - I may think of something else eventually) concern is that part of the reason that publishers like consoles is that piracy isn't simple. You have to mod the console. It means that the people with the means to buy games will usually opt to buy games instead of spending the time, energy, and frustration to pirate them. I know that's true for me. When I was in my teens and early 20s I pirated everything, including Windows 95. Now I don't pirate software. It's not worth my time and energy unless I'm enjoying the frustration itself (it happens).

The big exception to this is if Microsoft and Sony get game streaming down pat. If that happens, then it is in their best interests to do so, because all the consumer has to buy (hardware wise) is the controller. Everything else is unnecessary.
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Good points. Piracy absolutely is a factor in how things play out.
 
darthdiablo said:
I didn't say it would perform differently though? I'm just responding to the other comment's questions.

I agree though, difference in performance between 4nm and 5nm, or 4N vs N4 is probably immaterialistic.
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I imagine they wouldn’t have customized the process unless it improved performance, yield, or price.
 
PandaAndino said:
Color theory is gaining momentum day by day. This is for the new Kuro No Kiseki Game.

2024021412261500-0756F30FDD143619A0ACE821C9DFEBF2.jpg


www.falcom.co.jp

英雄伝説 黎の軌跡 for Nintendo Switch | 公式サイト - Falcom

裏社会からはじまる新たな軌跡。新世代「軌跡シリーズ」 Nintendo Switch に新登場！「英雄伝説 黎の軌跡(クロノキセキ) for Nintendo Switch」好評発売中！
www.falcom.co.jp www.falcom.co.jp
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Remember when we doubted ourselves, going back through Switch library to find older examples of colored buttons and found only a couple?

The evidence of something changing recently that supports the colored button theory continues to mount up..
 
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