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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (New Staff Post, Please read)

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BreakAtmo said:
Can we say for sure how long mass production will take? 4-6 months?
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We have no idea because we have few data points.

Xbox Series production started at latest in June 2020.

Reddit - Dive into anything

www.reddit.com www.reddit.com

PS5 production started at latest May 2020.

Sony on track for PS5 launch despite supply-chain challenges

Latest PlayStation console expected to launch globally in the final quarter of 2020
www.ft.com www.ft.com

There are no other data points that I can find.
 
Production is a tricky topic. Different elements can start at varying times. Nintendo with the Wii did not even get its first shipment of Chips in until 2 months before launch. Everything else was produced and ready waiting for final put together.

Switch 2 is obviously going to be a much larger launch than Wii and its using components that will mass produce alot easier so it wont be down to the wire but really what Nintendo wants for launch etc. matter more than anything. that will determine production time
 
darthdiablo said:
You might be right. I was speculating that Nintendo would want to avoid the scarcity issue as much as possible.

Scarcity issue can be a vicious self-feeding cycle. If not enough units are available on launch day, it would inflate the price of console in secondary markets (eBay etc), scalpers will get more involved, etc. Even with restocks showing up, it's "never going to be enough" for a long time. It's a hard cycle to get out of.
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Agreed, but they're limited by the amount they can keep stocked in warehouses, and I wouldn't be surprised if the launch day demand exceeds that amount. This would mean that the scalper issue will exist regardless, and they'd have to use methods like strict purchase restrictions to curb it instead. It wouldn't fix the problem, but it would certainly help.
 
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
We have no idea because we have few data points.

Xbox Series production started at latest in June 2020.

Reddit - Dive into anything

www.reddit.com www.reddit.com

PS5 production started at latest May 2020.

Sony on track for PS5 launch despite supply-chain challenges

Latest PlayStation console expected to launch globally in the final quarter of 2020
www.ft.com www.ft.com

There are no other data points that I can find.
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That suggests longer mass production times than I thought - although I suppose the pandemic may have exacerbated them.

antonz said:
Production is a tricky topic. Different elements can start at varying times. Nintendo with the Wii did not even get its first shipment of Chips in until 2 months before launch. Everything else was produced and ready waiting for final put together.
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Holy shit lmao, I would not have guessed this one.

antonz said:
Switch 2 is obviously going to be a much larger launch than Wii and its using components that will mass produce alot easier so it wont be down to the wire but really what Nintendo wants for launch etc. matter more than anything. that will determine production time
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Would the fact that the Switch itself is physically smaller potentially speed up production? Also, has mass production in general sped up over the last generation due to improved technology?
 
BreakAtmo said:
Agreed, but they're limited by the amount they can keep stocked in warehouses, and I wouldn't be surprised if the launch day demand exceeds that amount. This would mean that the scalper issue will exist regardless, and they'd have to use methods like strict purchase restrictions to curb it instead. It wouldn't fix the problem, but it would certainly help.
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Do we really know how limited the temp storage space is for the Switch 2 or the costs of storage.

The post Vietnam data discourse has just been a ton of wild assumptions with too much confidence.
 
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
Do we really know how limited the temp storage space is for the Switch 2 or the costs of storage.

The post Vietnam data discourse has just been a ton of wild assumptions with too much confidence.
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It's not so much about the exact storage space numbers - it's just that I think the launch day demand for Switch 2 is going to be HUGE. Like 15-20m huge, due to the immense success of the Switch brand and all the current owners who have been waiting for literal years to trade their current Switch in for a more powerful model. I really doubt the storage space can hold that much, and I think the system will be sold out for a long time.

Also the costs of the storage don't matter. The fact that there are costs at all is what matters, when Nintendo could just be selling that hardware instead.
 
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Terrell said:
The kind of volume pricing Nintendo has access to is not precisely knowable. But I’ve found what looks like 256GB of eUFS 3.1 for $25 a chip when bought in volumes of 2000, and that’s non-contract bulk pricing, so expect Nintendo’s price to be lower when they’re likely committing to 10 million per year at minimum.

It’s really going to depend on what speed they think they need to hit with the design. If the read speeds of single-lane UFS Card 3.0 meet their needs, that means they can cheap out on the tech for internal storage and use 2-lane eUFS 2.1 and use any cost savings from that elsewhere.
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Very good point, btw do you know maybe what will be potential cost of 16GB RAM( two 8GB 64bit modules)?
 
I'm expecting the battery to be about 6000-7000mAh, with a target of 3 hours of continuous use at a maximum power consumption for the whole system averaging 10W.
 
BreakAtmo said:
That's on the level of the Steam Deck OLED battery, I'm not sure if that would fit. It would be very nice, though.
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Consider that NG Switch is likely to have a close enough to 8 inch screen, it likely needs bezels around that, and that the circuitry around the battery would be far, far smaller than the circuitry of the Steam Deck. It's a smaller case, yes, but a higher proportion of that case can be used for the battery. Especially since the SOC is itself likely to be tiny.
 
SpaceGodzilla said:
why do you have such a problem with people predicting an h1 release? this is not your first and certainly not last post about it
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It’s less that I have an issue with it & more that I’m trying to help break the cycle of expecting the system as soon as possible. It’s the same cycle that had people thinking we’d get the Switch 2 in March when that clearly wasn’t the case (especially when Nintendo is trying to preserve holiday sales at all cost).
 
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Neoxon said:
It’s less that I have an issue with it & more that I’m trying to help break the cycle of expecting the system as soon as possible. Is the same cycle that had people thinking we’d get the Switch 2 in March when that clearly wasn’t the case (especially when Nintendo is trying to preserve holiday sales at all cost).
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Perhaps you should stop playing the saviour and let people believe what they want to believe, regardless of whether they expect the system to release on H1 or H2. Otherwise it just comes across as smug and condescending for something so inoffensive as believing a system could release earlier.

darthdiablo said:
Not new hardware but an interesting topic. One that I know have been discussed already here re: Switch successor: performance per watt

Reddit - Dive into anything

www.reddit.com www.reddit.com
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That was an interesting read. I hope Switch 2 is also really impressive in terms of performance per watt. Can't wait to finally see how it performs when others analyse it.
 
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BreakAtmo said:
That's on the level of the Steam Deck OLED battery, I'm not sure if that would fit. It would be very nice, though.
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Steam Deck is a 7v device, which is roughly twice the usual voltage. So, mA comparison doesn't work well here.

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but Wh is a much better way to compare them here. If you want 3h out of a 10W device, you need a 30Wh battery (Hybrids are all 16Wh, OG Deck is 40Wh, OLED Deck is 50Wh).
 
BreakAtmo said:
Would the fact that the Switch itself is physically smaller potentially speed up production? Also, has mass production in general sped up over the last generation due to improved technology?
Click to expand...

From the chip side of things, absolutely because the individual chips will be smaller then what you’d see from a PS5 for example. You’ll get more chips per wafer, plus you have more leeway with possible bad chips in that same wafer.

As far as other components in the system, I think of it in terms of how many individual parts can fit on say a pallet of shipped goods. Relative to a PS5, you can fit a higher quantity of parts.

Yes, I’m sure there are caveats to this, but I don’t see why Nintendo couldn’t manufacturer say 30-50% more consoles (just throwing a number there) compared to the PS5 in a similarly sized warehouse simply because the system is smaller.
 
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goombaicebro said:
no research? check.

arguing about release dates? check.

another day at the famiboards hardware thread...
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What do you expect from a thread with "speculation" on the title?

Speculation is literally defined by Oxford Dictionary as "the act of forming opinions about what has happened or what might happen without knowing all the facts".
 
Rogue Agent said:
Perhaps you should stop playing the saviour and let people believe what they want to believe, regardless of whether they expect the system to release on H1 or H2. Otherwise it just comes across as smug and condescending for something so inoffensive as believing a system could release earlier.
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what really irks me is that all of his posts allude to the common consensus of reputable sources as if that's yielded us anything but disappointment before

imo we should be ready for May 2024 and May 2025
 
I think the gimmick will come in the form of a peripheral since this system seems to be tech packed for a $399 device. Considering how successful Nintendo has been with Wii Fit and Ring Fit, what peripheral do you think they could use to help sell Switch 2 to the causals this gen? I think some type of AR glasses, or Sensor Bar 2, and I think Nintendo will figure out how to use the tensor cores to do cool stuff with these peripherals. For the glasses, I can see them using them to bring Nintendogs back or for Metroid Prime 4 as a showpiece. The sensor bar would be to do more fitness/party game stuff and just to give motion control games have an extra layer of input. If Nintendo decides to make their own metaverse this gen, these peripherals could be cool ways to immerse and interact with it. I would personally like the peripheral to cost $199 at most. Ultimately, the success of the peripheral will come down to how good the software made for it is.
 
Mr.Gamerson said:
I think the gimmick will come in the form of a peripheral since this system seems to be tech packed for a $399 device
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The Switch 2 already being an upgrade of the Switch ($299) warrants a 100-150 price increase (bigger screen, better technology in chip and controllers). I don’t see room for any hardware gimmick already tied to the consolw, but like you suggested, peripherals and accessories. I’ve suggested before that the Switch ecosystem concept should also take into consideration gimmicks as separate hardware, and not part of the system. You have a portable form factor that you could literally hook into anything and mix it up. The Switch 2 at the center of an ecosystem of elements:
• Switch 1 software and hardware/accessories (BC)

• Switch 1 games patched for next gen

• Switch 2 exclusive software

• Switch Pro Controller 2

• Nintendo Switch Online Subscription
 
Neoxon said:
It’s less that I have an issue with it & more that I’m trying to help break the cycle of expecting the system as soon as possible. Is the same cycle that had people thinking we’d get the Switch 2 in March when that clearly wasn’t the case (especially when Nintendo is trying to preserve holiday sales at all cost).
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Fair enough
 
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HankyPanky said:
where is the guy that bet his account (bird bomb) on some sort of announcement or new details in November? because nothing happened.
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Lemonfresh? If so It was the opposite. He made a bet that he will take the next (unflattering) image posted as the new avatar if announcement was made in November.
 
darthdiablo said:
Lemonfresh? If so It was the opposite. He made a bet that he will take the next (unflattering) image posted as the new avatar if announcement was made in November.
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can't be there was someone who was very sure something was being announced and said their account could be removed if not. he said the birds were talking (lol) and something was imminent.
 
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