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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (New Staff Post, Please read)

Cool. Might need help with translating if it comes down to that. Thanks for offering. :)

Still waiting on new data
You're welcome :)
From what I know, Switch that are assembled in Vietnam are from the Hosiden factory at Bắc Giang province, though I maybe wrong as there're also Foxconn factories as well
 
We don't actually have any evidence that mass production is going to start imminently or early next year. We have evidence of very small quantities of parts that appear to be ready for mass production being sent to a factory in Vietnam. We have no idea what the timeline is, and anyone who has tried to estimate it in this thread has (reasonably) said to take it with a very big pinch of salt, because the information we have is really limited. Historical precedents are stronger evidence, because we know for a fact what happened in the past. Doesn't mean it will happen again necessarily, but it's a clue, and it's usually more reliable than guessing at what little current information there is

Wait wait wait. "Historical precedents" are a stronger evidence than actual data no matter how small the fragments are?

Yeah, sorry. No.

You think they ship parts to factories for them to sit around in a storage there or what?

Storage costs money.
 
Wait wait wait. "Historical precedents" are a stronger evidence than actual data no matter how small the fragments are?

Yeah, sorry. No.

You think they ship parts to factories for them to sit around in a storage there or what?

Storage costs money.

Do we have any idea how long the testing process usually is for parts for new consoles to use for "data?"
 
I don't understand where the obsession with beating PS2 lifetime sales comes from. Nintendo's priority is success, not lifetime sales numbers. They can (or at least should) care less about having a symbolic crown for most consoles sold. They aren't going to risk their platform's mindshare for the sake of internet kudos points.
i mean like i said in the sales thread people treat this crap like a sport lmao.
 
If Nintendo's President said the Gamescom Rumor was not factual/inaccurate, does it really matter what part he specify? The rumor was a new device was shown at Gamescom, and Nintendo said it wasn’t true. Don’t they normally take the stance of, “We don’t comment on rumors or speculation?”

I think we need to wait for the official translation, it currently isn't clear what inaccurate rumors Nintendo is referring to. They could be referring to the comments taken from the FTC files from the Activision merger with Microsoft. If that were to be it, and the quotes insinuate that SNG will be be about as capable as a PS4/X1, and Nintendo is sitting there with a 3Tflop modern GPU, 8 CPU cores that destroy the Jaguar cores and they have 12 GB of ram alongside much faster internal storage, they would be be correct, that is not a accurate statement. SNG is an order of magnitude more capable than the Xbox One or PS4.
 
Do we have any idea how long the testing process usually is for parts for new consoles to use for "data?"

You know the testing for parts is likely done within or close to the factory chosen for the production of the parts and very likey won't have to be shipped around?
 
Wait wait wait. "Historical precedents" are a stronger evidence than actual data no matter how small the fragments are?

Yeah, sorry. No.
Yeah, they are. I don't think it's what anyone here wants to hear, but this situation resembles a regular console launch much more than the Switch did. Of course, if we had a good amount of current data, the balance would change.
You think they ship parts to factories for them to sit around in a storage there or what?

Storage costs money.
This would be a salient point if we had evidence of mass production amounts of parts being sent to factories. We have evidence of very small amounts of parts being sent to factories. We don't know for what reason or what the timeline is. It's possible that it's just so that the employees can be trained and mass production is starting in two weeks, but it's also possible it's something else. Again, I don't think we should make big assumptions based off of very small amounts of evidence
 
Wait wait wait. "Historical precedents" are a stronger evidence than actual data no matter how small the fragments are?

Yeah, sorry. No.

You think they ship parts to factories for them to sit around in a storage there or what?

Storage costs money.
Consdering the low quantities, they don't sit in inventories, rather they are used in mocked up production and testing line to minimize time and manipulation, in order to maximize output and stability.

I'm not Nintendo, but when my company is done at deciding the parts and components of our embedded products; there still is a fair amount of time when assembly is trialed, and we form people to test the product and specifics, and we manage factoring to reduce default.

You don't go in production right after deciding the component : you actually have to produce quite a lot of pre series, to test if you are ready to produce full scale, and you need quite a respectable size to be sure nothing will grip the production line
 
Yeah, they are. I don't think it's what anyone here wants to hear, but this situation resembles a regular console launch much more than the Switch did. Of course, if we had a good amount of current data, the balance would change.

This would be a salient point if we had evidence of mass production amounts of parts being sent to factories. We have evidence of very small amounts of parts being sent to factories. We don't know for what reason or what the timeline is. It's possible that it's just so that the employees can be trained and mass production is starting in two weeks, but it's also possible it's something else. Again, I don't think we should make big assumptions based off of very small amounts of evidence

So, my officially last post on this discussion with you and that other one.

No matter how small the shipment or the info fragment is, it's actual evidence for something that is about to happen within the next 3 months.

Denying that as evidence while focusing on "history tells us that" and using that as "evidence" is just ...

In the end think what you want, but DONT tell others what they're supposed to think!
 
So, my officially last post on this discussion with you and that other one.

No matter how small the shipment or the info fragment is, it's actual evidence for something that is about to happen within the next 3 months.

Denying that as evidence while focusing on "history tells us that" and using that as "evidence" is just ...

In the end think what you want, but DONT tell others what they're supposed to think!
Problem is, until we have actual facts of big quantities of parts being moved around, the shipment you guys found lack a lot of context so cant be used to point out at anything else that this parts are being ship from one place to other.

Once you guys found a big shipment then we can have this as a fact of something actually happening, other wise the lack of context of this parts just point out at the void and tell us nothing
 
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So, my officially last post on this discussion with you and that other one.

No matter how small the shipment or the info fragment is, it's actual evidence for something that is about to happen within the next 3 months.

Denying that as evidence while focusing on "history tells us that" and using that as "evidence" is just ...

In the end think what you want, but DONT tell others what they're supposed to think!
In my first post I specifically say that it's perfectly fine to believe whatever you want to believe. Historical precedents are important when predicting anything, not just console launches. And I don't deny that the shipments are real, I'm just saying people here are putting way too much stock into them.

I have only given my opinion on this, I'm not telling anyone what they should think. People can come to their own conclusions
 
This is how the game of telephone starts. Where did Furukawa say he was referring to Gamescom rumors? He didn't.

I’m not going to pretend to know a lick of Japanese, though through Google translate, and Apple translate even, the Mainichi article makes a note concerning “…and that Nintendo demonstrated a new model at an overseas event in the summer of 2023, denying them as untrue.“

So is Google translate that bad at translating that it just happened to add that, or does the article itself say anything about it? Because I went through Apple translate, and it said something similar at the end, “…Nintendo demonstrated a new model at an overseas event in the summer of 23, and denied them as 'not true'”

Now to be fair, this is a Japanese article that is trying to sum up information, and the article itself could seemingly add in extra things that Furukawa never said.

Im not saying anyone here is a liar or anything. Only that, what is the actual translation here, and how off base is it?

I think we need to wait for the official translation, it currently isn't clear what inaccurate rumors Nintendo is referring to. They could be referring to the comments taken from the FTC files from the Activision merger with Microsoft. If that were to be it, and the quotes insinuate that SNG will be be about as capable as a PS4/X1, and Nintendo is sitting there with a 3Tflop modern GPU, 8 CPU cores that destroy the Jaguar cores and they have 12 GB of ram alongside much faster internal storage, they would be be correct, that is not a accurate statement. SNG is an order of magnitude more capable than the Xbox One or PS4.

That is a good point. Ultimately, we will have to wait for the official translation.
 
I'm always on team #Tomorrow, but team #Q1reveal is probably a little more realistic.

I’m not going to pretend to know a lick of Japanese, though through Google translate, and Apple translate even, the Mainichi article makes a note concerning “…and that Nintendo demonstrated a new model at an overseas event in the summer of 2023, denying them as untrue.“
This is where things get a little fun when working with denials in press statements. Even if that translation is fully accurate, it can easily be interpreted in this way:

Nintendo did not demonstrate a new model at an overseas event, they demonstrated new software capabilities. The model was not present.

You'll find that with a lot of PR statements the truth is usually buried in lots of different layers of denials.

With the 3DS XL, it was heavily rumored it would be coming out soon and then it didn't show up at E3 that year. Nintendo was interviewed about it and they said they were happy with the current form factor of the hardware and were focusing on that. Like 2 weeks later the 3DS XL got revealed.

They're always very careful about how they word things, and until the official English QA comes out you should be careful about assuming any denial is talking about any specific thing.
 
I’m not going to pretend to know a lick of Japanese, though through Google translate, and Apple translate even, the Mainichi article makes a note concerning “…and that Nintendo demonstrated a new model at an overseas event in the summer of 2023, denying them as untrue.“

So is Google translate that bad at translating that it just happened to add that, or does the article itself say anything about it? Because I went through Apple translate, and it said something similar at the end, “…Nintendo demonstrated a new model at an overseas event in the summer of 23, and denied them as 'not true'”

Now to be fair, this is a Japanese article that is trying to sum up information, and the article itself could seemingly add in extra things that Furukawa never said.

Im not saying anyone here is a liar or anything. Only that, what is the actual translation here, and how off base is it?



That is a good point. Ultimately, we will have to wait for the official translation.
I am Japanese. Furukawa pointed out that the rumors on the Internet about the Switch 2 are inaccurate, and although he did not identify it as Gamescom, he strongly denied the fact that there was a demo outside of Japan this summer about the next generation console.
 
I'm trying to tell you that stuff that happened almost 30 years ago, for whatever reason, are not a solid arguing for why something won't/shouldn't work today.

Switch's Q1 release worked. Pretty well.

Just because no one tried it in 30 years doesn't automatically mean a Q2 release won't work.

If the system is appealing, the software is appealing, i think the time of the year matters little to not at all.

The PS5, for example, would've sold out instantly if it would've launched in March, May, June, August or November.

Agreed, imho, the key point is when N is ready to launch it. If they could launch the Switch 2 with Mario 3D in March, they would do it. The same goes for every other month next year; the sooner, the better. This thing will be sold out regardless in the launch window.

(Still betting on may release 🤞🏻)
 
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May 2024 stays winning.

My thoughts on the QA:

1. I think Nintendo lied to us investors again BUT we must see the official translation. The words are important. We take this seriously when they outright lie to us but must reserve judgement until better translations happen.

2. If he did lie, the only reason is the reveal is not close and far enough off to not piss off their fan base who bought a Switch this holiday season. January is off the table for me. Feb or March reveal.

3. Sales numbers are above my expectations.
I should keep this in the investor meeting thread but it’s dead at the moment.

I’m seeing a dividend of $.53 per share, no way this is right. I can’t find official info of how much it actually is.
 
Nintendo isn't going to lend any credibility to rumours of a product they haven't announced yet. Nothing out there right now is so concrete that they wouldn't have plausible deniability. That's all this is.

There is also no reason for them to announce a successor or even hint at it in Nov. They are gearing up for holiday season, they aren't going to waste time, money and mindshare on a product they have no intention to promote right now.

If it is going to cone out in 2024 H1 it would need to be announced in Jan or Feb at the latest of 2024. Seems unlikely.
 
Oh man, this is good. Who will step up and say Nintendo is lying and they have a confirmed source that states the switch 2 was shown. This is the fun part of the speculation for me.
 
Do we know when the August data from Vietnam was added?

I dont really know the update cycle from this particular data
Wish I knew. I was searching for past data update history (associated with which countries), didn't find any such thing. That kind of info would potentially give us some insight on frequency of updates.

But I think it's probably inconsistent - some countries might be slow (and fast at other times of the year) to provide customs data, etc.
 
I am Japanese. Furukawa pointed out that the rumors on the Internet about the Switch 2 are inaccurate, and although he did not identify it as Gamescom, he strongly denied the fact that there was a demo outside of Japan this summer about the next generation console.
I'm guess there are certain facts about what was shown to developers that perhaps may have been incorrect (based on technicalities).

"Actually, there was no demonstration of the actual device, only its rendering capabilities. We did not show any demo on-site outside of Japan because it was actually presented via a Zoom call."
He didn't name Gamescom directly but he mentioned an "overseas event in the Summer of 2023" as being where the rumor took place.
E3? You mean the event that no longer exists?
 
E3? You mean the event that no longer exists?
Gamescom was in August which is still technically Summer.

I'll repost the quote in full. It's really not ambigious what rumor he's calling out.
23年夏の海外イベントで任天堂が新しい機種のデモンストレーションをした――といった報道内容を挙げた上で「事実ではない」と否定した。
 
I honestly think March is unveil and blowout month. If Nintendo hasn’t started production, it doesn’t make sense for them to start it before February. I think production will start March for a Summer release
 
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I don't understand where the obsession with beating PS2 lifetime sales comes from. Nintendo's priority is success, not lifetime sales numbers. They can (or at least should) care less about having a symbolic crown for most consoles sold. They aren't going to risk their platform's mindshare for the sake of internet kudos points.
this is more part of console wars idiocy, Nintendo need to aim for consistent sucess,Nintendo Switch massive sucess, Switch sucessor flop, they need to keep a consistent sucess
Yes, they had a press conference

Q&A coming in around 8 hours
i wonder if more investors will press Shuntaro Furukawa, Nintendo Switch is selling well, but where is the successor?
 
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I’m not going to pretend to know a lick of Japanese, though through Google translate, and Apple translate even, the Mainichi article makes a note concerning “…and that Nintendo demonstrated a new model at an overseas event in the summer of 2023, denying them as untrue.“

So is Google translate that bad at translating that it just happened to add that, or does the article itself say anything about it? Because I went through Apple translate, and it said something similar at the end, “…Nintendo demonstrated a new model at an overseas event in the summer of 23, and denied them as 'not true'”
Not accusing you of anything, just trying to highlight a phenomenon. The "rumors" he referred to as inaccurate we're not Gamescom related. These are separate denials
He didn't name Gamescom directly but he mentioned an "overseas event in the Summer of 2023" as being where the rumor took place.
No, he was referring generally to internet rumors as inaccurate, and he separately said that the report of a Gamescom demo was "false":

I am Japanese. Furukawa pointed out that the rumors on the Internet about the Switch 2 are inaccurate, and although he did not identify it as Gamescom, he strongly denied the fact that there was a demo outside of Japan this summer about the next generation console.
This seems like a subtle point, but it isn't. Shoulder picked out a sentence saying "rumors on the internet are wrong", then conflated that with a much more specific Gamescom denial (which is easy to do!), then asked how much of the Gamescom rumor was inaccurate.

But Furukawa could stand on a balcony and say "internet rumors are inaccurate" any day of the week, with no context, and be correct. That is, essentially, meaningless. So what matters is the specific Gamescom denial. Which is this quote, Machine Translated:

He cited reports that Nintendo demonstrated a new model at an overseas event in the summer of 2023, denying it as "untrue"

Now, this is also a little contextless, because not only is it machine translated, we don't know the exact wording of the question itself, but this quote at least totally matches, in corporate-speak, with what was reported. We know hardware wasn't demoed, we know that software was demoed, and that software was running on "target spec hardware."

Furukawa's obligation to manage the health of his company, and control over the narrative is broad. His legal obligation to tell truth to stockholders is narrow. So far, he's not reported as saying anything inconsistent with reliable rumors. If we start to conflate these things, the meme becomes "Furukawa says Eurogamer and VGC and Nate are liars" when in fact what Furkawa said was "pay no attention to the man behind the curtain."
 
Do you think the reports about Gamescon were made up? As in it never happened?
Considering the reports came from three separate parties (Nate, Eurogamer, VGC) and were then corroborated by GVG as a fourth party I think Furukawa is being a bit cheeky. I think the gamescom reports were accurate.
 
Do you think the reports about Gamescon were made up? As in it never happened?
Definitely not made up, I mean obviously Furukawa isn’t gonna come out and say “Well damn that shit was leaked, so uh yeah the Switch 2 is a real thing baby!” Nintendo always does this it’s just their MO
 
Do you think the reports about Gamescon were made up? As in it never happened?
Assuming it's true (which I still firmly believe it is) Furukawa technically would not be lying by saying the Switch 2 wasn't demonstrated at Gamescom. The reports about the showcase said it wasn't done with an actual Switch 2 model but rather with hardware targeting the Switch 2's specs.
 
I personally want the Switch to reach or outsell the PS2 just for the fun of it.

But it would also be a monumental business success. One was a successful and price reduced video game console/cheap DVD player, while the other is a console that has maintained its MSRP
 
Furukawa's obligation to manage the health of his company, and control over the narrative is broad. His legal obligation to tell truth to stockholders is narrow. So far, he's not reported as saying anything inconsistent with reliable rumors. If we start to conflate these things, the meme becomes "Furukawa says Eurogamer and VGC and Nate are liars" when in fact what Furkawa said was "pay no attention to the man behind the curtain."
This is an excellent TLDR.

Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| Napkin Math so Pay No Attention to The Man Behind the Curtain
 
i think today we all learned to not hang onto every word that comes out of a corporation's mouth as it is all incredibly self-serving and not necessarily reflective of what's happening behind-the-scenes.

also that nintendo hates us and are liars.
 
I find that the value of an executive's statements to be inversely proportional to the health of their company's financials. Right now Nintendo's doing relatively well, so I expect nothing of value to be directly stated by the CEO in the meanwhile.
 
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i think today we all learned to not hang onto every word that comes out of a corporation's mouth as it is all incredibly self-serving and not necessarily reflective of what's happening behind-the-scenes.

also that nintendo hates us and are liars.

They're just doing damage control and ensuring that all the bundles are being sold in full swing this season

The Q1 Dream will be dead if we hear nothing by end of this week

If their plan is really to sell a shit ton of bundles this holiday then announce the successor early next year, that's super deceiving for all the new Switch buyers imo. Bad business practice from Nintendo but yeah.. money talks
 
They're just doing damage control and ensuring that all the bundles are being sold in full swing this season

The Q1 Dream will be dead if we hear nothing by end of this week

If their plan is really to sell a shit ton of bundles this holiday then announce the successor early next year, that's super deceiving for all the new Switch buyers imo. Bad business practice from Nintendo but yeah.. money talks
Yeah that's one of the reasons I believe there will be at least 5-6 months between announcement and release. Would especially feel bad for customers that are upgrading or replacing their current switch only to have a better product released shortly after. I think giving customers plenty of notice is beneficial even if it slows sales a little bit.
 
Idk seems like you are portraying a light hearted joke as a insensitive attack
mmm not really an attack, just a lot of comment dedicated to being passive agressive when they're wrong!
 
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Funny that Furukawa didn't debunk the Fami findings, he must be afraid of us.

Guess we're the only true Famiboards insiders™ here.

Hopium prevails

Yeah, I suspect Furukawa is probably referring to all those dumb YTers and clickbait websites that violated the "Nintendo patent rule" (the rule being, if you can find a patent on web and Nintendo hasn't announced it, then it's very likely Nintendo has decided to not proceed the patent). YTers and clickbait websites have been covering those patents nonstop.

Meanwhile, it seems that world is completely oblivious to the customs data finds among other finds. At least the recent DF video covers our (and outside) various common sense findings pretty well (mostly T239 capabilities)
 
Now, this is also a little contextless, because not only is it machine translated, we don't know the exact wording of the question itself, but this quote at least totally matches, in corporate-speak, with what was reported. We know hardware wasn't demoed, we know that software was demoed, and that software was running on "target spec hardware."

So basically a politicians answer. He gave an answer that escapes the intent of the question and is factually accurate at the same time. It would be interesting if anyone in the Q&A ask a more direct question about a Zelda BotW demo and the Matrix demo being shown at Gamescom. It would be interesting to see if the answer becomes "no comment." Honestly though, is he even legally obligated to speak truthfully on private business matters?
 
I'm always on team #Tomorrow, but team #Q1reveal is probably a little more realistic.


This is where things get a little fun when working with denials in press statements. Even if that translation is fully accurate, it can easily be interpreted in this way:

Nintendo did not demonstrate a new model at an overseas event, they demonstrated new software capabilities. The model was not present.

You'll find that with a lot of PR statements the truth is usually buried in lots of different layers of denials.

With the 3DS XL, it was heavily rumored it would be coming out soon and then it didn't show up at E3 that year. Nintendo was interviewed about it and they said they were happy with the current form factor of the hardware and were focusing on that. Like 2 weeks later the 3DS XL got revealed.

They're always very careful about how they word things, and until the official English QA comes out you should be careful about assuming any denial is talking about any specific thing.
As the good old Obi Wan Kenobi would say... "it's true in a certain point of view".

But most people are oblivous as luke skywalker was..... good times when StarWars was relevant..
 
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