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StarTopic Nintendo Switch 2 Speculation Thread |ST| The Future is Probably a Year From Now

How confident are you that one year from now (April 2nd, 2025) you will own a Switch 2 system?

  • Absolutely

    Votes: 192 57.8%

  • No because scalpers will kill my chances

    Votes: 39 11.7%

  • I hope so, but it is probably farther out

    Votes: 50 15.1%

  • Team second half 2025

    Votes: 24 7.2%

  • Josh, please stop it

    Votes: 27 8.1%
  • Total voters
    332
Reader mode
P4bl0 said:
Nintendo sold 2.7m of Switch 1 at launch in March 2017 globally.

Let’s say they release a Mario 3D at launch, and they sell 4M units in March (which is veryyy optimistic), and that half of the userbase buys 3D Mario, that’s 2M software sales that’s not enough. They have to build the userbase first couple months before releasing a 3D Mario
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Amadeus said:
absolutely this
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Wrong and this is such a bad way to run a business. The launch day is your starting point. The user base grows for as long as the system is out (years). That’s like saying BotW should’ve waited months and not released on launch day. You don’t compromise your release for some fantasy of Prime 4 being a launch title. It doesn’t and will never ever have the cache as a new 3D Mario game.
 
I’m more excited for what games get showcased in the Switch 2 reveal trailer than I am for the system itself. I remember back in 2016 when Skyrim was shown off and they were quick to be like “uhh haha that’s just a mock-up it might not even happen” and then January came around and Todd Howard showed up during the Nintendo Switch presentation.

I think Final Fantasy will take that spot. I don’t know if it’ll be Final Fantasy Remake, 16, or Rebirth, but there’s nothing else “jaw dropping” from a third party that I can think of that would garner such a big reaction.

I would have said Persona 6 instead, but I am 99% sure Xbox will have that game’s marketing rights locked down.
 
P4bl0 said:
Nintendo sold 2.7m of Switch 1 at launch in March 2017 globally.

Let’s say they release a Mario 3D at launch, and they sell 4M units in March (which is veryyy optimistic), and that half of the userbase buys 3D Mario, that’s 2M software sales that’s not enough. They have to build the userbase first couple months before releasing a 3D Mario
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That is ... not how sales work.

Zelda launched with Switch at a time when the series was significantly less popular than Mario is now, and sold more copies on Switch than there were Switches sold. Mario doesn't need to build an installbase ... most people who buy consoles in the first few weeks are already enthusiasts, they'd 100% be getting a 3D Mario.
 
FF13 is up there with

RE5
RE6
Kid Icarus Uprising
MGS4
FF12

Where a quality remake would be so hard that’s difficult to say whether or not the publisher would actually do it.

(KOTOR is up there too and uhh….)
 
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Dark Cloud said:
Wrong and this is such a bad way to run a business. The launch day is your starting point. The user base grows for as long as the system is out (years). That’s like saying BotW should’ve waited months and not released on launch day. You don’t compromise your release for some fantasy of Prime 4 being a launch title. It doesn’t and will never ever have the cache as a new 3D Mario game.
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3D Mario has never been a cross gen title.

BOTW was a cross gen game, they had the Wii U userbase buying it also, Nintendo isn’t stupid they always have a back up system to fall back
 
Neoxon said:
We’re at best 4 months out from the reveal (assuming the reported H2 2024 timeframe), it’s gonna be a while.
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from my understanding if it's fall 2024 there's a non-negligible chance we get a formal acknowledgement for IR's sake at the November 7th briefing

i.e. a press release that says "next year we will sell a new platform, codenamed Blender. it will be cool"
 
Nintendo fans trying to explain how Prime 4 could outsell Mario Odyssey and Breath Of The Wild combined without even seeing a trailer for the game

he-is-speaking-guy-explaining-with-a-whiteboard.gif
 
HeyItsPulse said:
I’m more excited for what games get showcased in the Switch 2 reveal trailer than I am for the system itself. I remember back in 2016 when Skyrim was shown off and they were quick to be like “uhh haha that’s just a mock-up it might not even happen” and then January came around and Todd Howard showed up during the Nintendo Switch presentation.

I think Final Fantasy will take that spot. I don’t know if it’ll be Final Fantasy Remake, 16, or Rebirth, but there’s nothing else “jaw dropping” from a third party that I can think of that would garner such a big reaction.

I would have said Persona 6 instead, but I am 99% sure Xbox will have that game’s marketing rights locked down.
Click to expand...

If there’s any one game Nintendo highlights (there will likely be many this time), it will almost certainly be Cyberpunk 2077 due to the perception that it was too powerful for the PS4 (due to its original bad programming) and because of how well NVIDIA knows this game.
 
AngryAlchemist said:
That is ... not how sales work.

Zelda launched with Switch at a time when the series was significantly less popular than Mario is now, and sold more copies on Switch than there were Switches sold. Mario doesn't need to build an installbase ... most people who buy consoles in the first few weeks are already enthusiasts, they'd 100% be getting a 3D Mario.
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They want to be able to say: Mario sold 10m units first week

Which isn’t possible when releasing on a new userbase that needs to be built. Nintendo doesn’t have unlimited inventory they will have max 3-5m units of Switch 2 at launch

And again Zelda was a cross gen game, they had the Wii U userbase buying it and the new Switch one
 
Raccoon said:
from my understanding if it's fall 2024 there's a non-negligible chance we get a formal acknowledgement for IR's sake at the November 7th briefing

i.e. a press release that says "next year we will sell a new platform, codenamed Blender. it will be cool"
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To be clear, I meant where we actually see the system. But a generic announcement of intentions targeted at investors would make sense for November.
 
BOTW sold about 4x as much as Skyward Sword

You apply that exact same multipler (Which getting would be a miracle itself) to the best selling Metroid game...it still only makes less than half of what Mario Odyssey did itself
 
unlike the switch 1 the switch 2 will live or die by its exclusives

botw and mario kart 8 on a more appealing device was a selling point

the same games as you can have on your functionally identical device now will not be
 
P4bl0 said:
They want to be able to say: Mario sold 10m units first week

Which isn’t possible when releasing on a new userbase that needs to be built. Nintendo doesn’t have unlimited inventory they will have max 3-5m units of Switch 2 at launch

And again Zelda was a cross gen game, they had the Wii U userbase buying it and the new Switch one
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What is this even based on? This is like weird contrived nonsense to invent a reason 3D Mario at launch is bad, actually.

I don't think Nintendo is secretly upset they released MK8 Deluxe when there were fewer Switches in the wild because, you know, it has sold a metric ton of units since then.
 
P4bl0 said:
They want to be able to say: Mario sold 10m units first week

Which isn’t possible when releasing on a new userbase that needs to be built. Nintendo doesn’t have unlimited inventory they will have max 3-5m units of Switch 2 at launch
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No…no they don’t? Were you pulling this out of? It doesn’t matter if you have limited inventory and it never will. This isn’t the first video game system to release. They’ve released plenty of Zelda and Mario day 1 because you put your strongest title, if possible, at the forefront. Mario captures the most audience even if hardware is limited.

According to you they should’ve waited months or maybe a year to release BotW for Switch. They should’ve waited maybe a year later to release Mario Kart 8 Deluxe on Switch JUST SO they can tell the media “we sold 15 million units of Mario Kart 8 Deluxe in a week”. You’re just making nonsense up to justify Mario not being a launch title.
 
P4bl0 said:
They want to be able to say: Mario sold 10m units first week
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... No they don't? Mario Odyssey didn't even sell 10m for months. You don't start a new platform to hit an arbitrary sales milestone quickly for internet points. Yes they want their games to sell faster, but they're not going to wait until Mario can hit the magic 10m in a week number. That could take more than a year.
 
Y’all need to remember we getting a smooth transition, they won’t pull the big Mario guns at launch while the Switch is still alive and getting Mario games. They will slowly phase out the Switch 1 but this will take at least a year like they previously communicated
 
P4bl0 said:
Y’all need to remember we getting a smooth transition, they won’t pull the big Mario guns at launch while the Switch is still alive and getting Mario games. They will slowly phase out the Switch 1 but this will take at least a year like they previously communicated
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unless

and please be patient and hear me out on this one

it's not H1 like you're expecting, instead being in fall 2024 or early 2025 where exclusives make sense
 
0
P4bl0 said:
Y’all need to remember we getting a smooth transition, they won’t pull the big Mario guns at launch while the Switch is still alive and getting Mario games. They will slowly phase out the Switch 1 but this will take at least a year like they previously communicated
Click to expand...
They're lying to you, friend. They are not going to try to lure people to their platform with patched Switch 1 games.
 
ngpdrew said:
What is this even based on? This is like weird contrived nonsense to invent a reason 3D Mario at launch is bad, actually.

I don't think Nintendo is secretly upset they released MK8 Deluxe when there were fewer Switches in the wild because, you know, it has sold a metric ton of units since then.
Click to expand...

We talking exclusive games at launch not ports or remasters, BOTW, MK8 were all ports, no risk taken for
them.
 
This thread trying to be installbase is NOT going to end well 😂😂 Mario would be a fine launch title

Edit: Should clarify I meant that casual topics and sales rarely mix, I like installbase lol
 
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P4bl0 said:
We talking exclusive games at launch not ports or remasters, BOTW, MK8 were all ports, no risk taken for
them.
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3D Mario at launch being a risk is actually the craziest thing I've read on this site and I frequently read @Suswave's shitposts.
 
P4bl0 said:
Y’all need to remember we getting a smooth transition, they won’t pull the big Mario guns at launch while the Switch is still alive and getting Mario games. They will slowly phase out the Switch 1 but this will take at least a year like they previously communicated
Click to expand...
?_?

They’ll pull whatever they need to for a successful launch of their future system. The Switch 1 will be history and you’re (Nintendo) is not letting that get in the way of Switch 2. It doesn’t matter there’s limited hardware day 1. There’s always limited hardware for every system of ever.
 
Mario is the definition of evergreen. Nintendo can launch a Mario game with the Switch 2 and it will sell millions over the years, long after the system launch. Just like....
  • Super Mario Bros (NES)
  • Super Mario Land (GB)
  • Super Mario World (SNES)
  • Super Mario 64 (N64)
  • Super Mario Advance (GBA)
  • Super Mario 64 DS (DS)
  • New Super Mario Bros U (Wii-U)
 
Josh5890 said:
Mario is the definition of evergreen. Nintendo can launch a Mario game with the Switch 2 and it will sell millions over the years, long after the system launch. Just like....
  • Super Mario Bros (NES)
  • Super Mario Land (GB)
  • Super Mario World (SNES)
  • Super Mario 64 (N64)
  • Super Mario Advance (GBA)
  • Super Mario 64 DS (DS)
  • New Super Mario Bros U (Wii-U)
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Omg wait…are you telling me Nintendo has released a…a a Mario game at launch with a new system before?
 
Raccoon said:
unlike the switch 1 the switch 2 will live or die by its exclusives

botw and mario kart 8 on a more appealing device was a selling point

the same games as you can have on your functionally identical device now will not be
Click to expand...
Yeah, this is actually something I've thought about too. I do think Switch software selling so well indicates there's a strong hunger for exclusives but I am not convinced Switch 2 will replicate Switch 1's wild and crazy success.
 
Josh5890 said:
Mario is the definition of evergreen. Nintendo can launch a Mario game with the Switch 2 and it will sell millions over the years, long after the system launch. Just like....
  • Super Mario Bros (NES)
  • Super Mario Land (GB)
  • Super Mario World (SNES)
  • Super Mario 64 (N64)
  • Super Mario Advance (GBA)
  • Super Mario 64 DS (DS)
  • New Super Mario Bros U (Wii-U)
Click to expand...
Yeah the great irony of this is that before NSMB Mario games didn't even have good launches
 
I'm glad this thread exists 👍 Putting my money on a January reveal solely because I want it to be in my birthday month.
 
0
October Mario Wonder
November Mario RPG + Wario Ware
February Mario DK
March Peach
May/June Paper Mario TTYD
Summer Luigi’s Mansion

We getting 7 Mario games in the next 8 -10 months, yall still hungry ?

I can’t see a new Mario 3D launching with the new console in Spring a remake or remaster why not, but new game not before Fall at least
 
P4bl0 said:
October Mario Wonder
November Mario RPG + Wario Ware
February Mario DK
March Peach
May/June Paper Mario TTYD
Summer Luigi’s Mansion

We getting 7 Mario games in the next 8 -10 months, yall still hungry ?

I can’t see a new Mario 3D launching with the new console in Spring a remake or remaster why not, but new game not before Fall at least
Click to expand...
hey

what if the console is fall too
 
Mekanos said:
Yeah, this is actually something I've thought about too. I do think Switch software selling so well indicates there's a strong hunger for exclusives but I am not convinced Switch 2 will replicate Switch 1's wild and crazy success.
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I’m not convinced either a Switch 2 can be as successful as a Switch 1. We’ll see of course, but there seems to be a ceiling for hardware.
 
This is it, everyone! The console we will delightfully be enjoying rayman 4 on INHALES COPIUM AT LIGHTNING SPEEDS
 
Switch 2 doesn't have to be as successful as Switch 1, it just has to be successful enough to sell at least 80 million units lifetime. I think people are far too paranoid about Nintendo pulling a WiiU/3DS era again.
 
I was originally adamant about the next Mario needing to be in October, close to the holidays, regardless of when the system launches. But now I'm thinking that it could still be a launch title in June, with something like Metroid Prime 4 taking over the October slot. I'm actually really interested in seeing how Nintendo will handle the release calendar during this cross-gen period: I can imagine first-party output swapping between a Switch 2 exclusive and a cross-gen release every month for the first year, before slowing down and wrapping up original Switch titles in the second year.
 
0
BassForever said:
Switch 2 doesn't have to be as successful as Switch 1, it just has to be successful enough to sell at least 80 million units lifetime. I think people are far too paranoid about Nintendo pulling a WiiU/3DS era again.
Click to expand...

In terms of sales relative to its predecessor, this would be the worst failure in the last 30 years other than the Vita and Saturn?

Just really low expectations, lol. The PS3 is one of the worst failures in gaming history and hit 87m.
 
P4bl0 said:
October Mario Wonder
November Mario RPG + Wario Ware
February Mario DK
March Peach
May/June Paper Mario TTYD
Summer Luigi’s Mansion

We getting 7 Mario games in the next 8 -10 months, yall still hungry ?

I can’t see a new Mario 3D launching with the new console in Spring a remake or remaster why not, but new game not before Fall at least
Click to expand...
I ain't hungry. I'm SICK of Mario.
 
I mean I'd be fine with 80 million units sold for Switch 2 but I am sure investors would balk

It's putting the cart before the horse anyway, maybe Nintendo will surprise us yet again
 
P4bl0 said:
They want to be able to say: Mario sold 10m units first week

Which isn’t possible when releasing on a new userbase that needs to be built. Nintendo doesn’t have unlimited inventory they will have max 3-5m units of Switch 2 at launch

And again Zelda was a cross gen game, they had the Wii U userbase buying it and the new Switch one
Click to expand...
This isn't how any of it works. You want to launch with one of your heaviest hitters, whether that be Mario, MK, Zelda, etc. to actually help move the system and grow the install base. The game will keep selling as long as the system is active, look at SMW, SM64, TP, BotW, and, sort of, Melee.

Cross-releasing day-and-date on a prior system has been a result of an existing promise of release, not because their priority is to sell units on that older system. Nintendo's whole plan is to phase that system out. Obviously Nintendo's goal was to move Switch units rather than racking up Wii U sales of BotW.

Nintendo cares so much more about getting the system into homes than being able to say "x game sold y amount", because the system is the avenue to all the software. They want to say "Switch 2 sold y units in z time". They want to say "the Switch 2 has run out of stock" and create that annoying trademark scarcity with which consumers infer high demand. The new hardware is an astronomically higher investment for them than any one piece of software. And the AAA game is the way to sell the hardware, which opens up sales for all the less-than AAA titles which may not be killer apps.
 
I cant believe we will have this thing in our hands in about 6-12 months. A new generation of Nintendo is about to begin exciting times
 
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