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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (New Staff Post, Please read)

This is going to sound odd, but what are the chances of a Switch 2 world premiere at The Game Awards ala Xbox Series X? It definitely would be a huge curve-ball.
0000000000000%

Nintendo will not let someone else control the narrative of the announcement of their next system. Anything can go wrong at the Game Awards and they will not put their initial announcement for the future of their company there.

They don’t want more Rabbis, Priests, GTAVI lovers and other weird people ruining their hardware announcement.
 
This is going to sound odd, but what are the chances of a Switch 2 world premiere at The Game Awards ala Xbox Series X? It definitely would be a huge curve-ball.

What I could see is a Switch 2 Teaser Early November (maybe with a MP4 bit in it) and a Cinematic MP4 trailer at the TGA since the MP4 target-audience is more likely to watch TGA.
 
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Nintendo hasn’t fucked with Geoff in any meaningful capacity in years, I doubt they’ll start now.
I dunno what "meaningful" is defined as here, but they revealed an exclusive (Bayonetta Origins) just last year along with the Fire Emblem Engage expansion pass.
 
I think they usually throw Geoff a bone in years where they have some games running for awards.

It won't be a console reveal, but maybe they're willing to show off Metroid Prime 4 for the first time again.

It's technically not even an announcement. ^^
 
I dunno what "meaningful" is defined as here, but they revealed an exclusive (Bayonetta Origins) just last year along with the Fire Emblem Engage expansion pass.
I mean, a spin-off or a small franchise & DLC for a game in FE’s sales bracket coming out in a month aren’t exactly meaningful.
 
Is that meaningful for you? It doesn't touch that significance of a brand new hardware reveal.
I mean, a spin-off or a small franchise & DLC for a game in FE’s sales bracket coming out in a month aren’t exactly meaningful.
My point is that Nintendo more often then not announces stuff at TGA's. I'm not suggesting they'll reveal new hardware there, but outside of 2021, they've always had something. They've revealed new exclusive games (Bayonetta 3, Origins, Marvel Ultimate Alliance), new Smash dlc (Joker and Sephiroth), and general DLC (Engage DLC).

I'm not suggesting they will have new hardware to reveal this year or that Keighly got the rereveal of Prime 4. I'm rejecting this definition of "meaningful" because like "last big release" it's a vague, goalpost moving term to fit whatever definition the arguer wants. If Nintendo has revealed the Switch 2 by TGA's they'll almost assuredly show something off there for that hardware. If the hardware hasn't been revealed they'll almost assuredly show off something for the current Switch.
 
I hope developers can find a way to use FSR 3 in docked mode without too much input latency on the new system. I know currently FSR 3 Frame Gen isn't compatible with DLSS and Reflex, but these would be great to use with a new system.

Wouldn't it be cool if a game like Far Cry 7 had a mode where in docked mode it reduced some settings like RT and had the game run between 35-45fps so that it could do a smooth interpolation to 60fps.

Considering FSR 3 works on the ROG Ally (a 3.5 TF machine), nothing could stop developers from doing a 720p -> 4K upscale and using FG.

Here is what FG from FSR looks like when interpolating to 60fps from the 38-45fps range (skip to the 6 minute mark):


why are so many people coming put of the woodwork going on and on about FSR 3 all of a sudden?
 
why are so many people coming put of the woodwork going on and on about FSR 3 all of a sudden?
Because it's very likely that the NG Switch won't have DLSS 3 since we know it's mostly based on Ampere. I think that since FSR 3 is something that can be used appropriately to bring 35-45fps up to 60fps, it would be great for a "performance mode" option in 3rd party games for when the system is in docked mode.

Doesn't have to be many 3rd party games, even if it's just a few, but the option to use it would be nice. Since FSR 2 was used in No Man's Sky, it's pretty much opened the gates for other AMD stuff to work on future hardware.
 
People think low powered systems like Drake can make use of it. From the results I've seen, I disagree.
I'd disagree, as long as the base framerate is over 35fps and V-Sync is enabled (when the game isn't Forspoken cough, cough), the smoothness is good, but the main problem is a small amount of input latency. A custom implementation like what FSR 2 is in No Man's Sky could be tweaked to focus on improving latency to a degree to where it would be acceptable to what's on screen.

Again, I wouldn't add FSR 3 in portable mode, that wouldn't work at all. Docked on the other hand will likely be between 3-4.5 TFs, so it would be much more useful there.



I'd also like to note, when using FSR 3, V-Sync has to be on for it to function properly, otherwise it looks like a jumpy and laggy mess, which is probably what you're referring to.
 
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Gamers Nexus has posted an incredibly thorough video on Baldur's Gate 3 GPU utilization.

Assuming the game's CPU usage can be further optimized, the Switch NG should have no trouble running the game at 30fps high settings:

 
My point is that Nintendo more often then not announces stuff at TGA's. I'm not suggesting they'll reveal new hardware there, but outside of 2021, they've always had something. They've revealed new exclusive games (Bayonetta 3, Origins, Marvel Ultimate Alliance), new Smash dlc (Joker and Sephiroth), and general DLC (Engage DLC).

I'm not suggesting they will have new hardware to reveal this year or that Keighly got the rereveal of Prime 4. I'm rejecting this definition of "meaningful" because like "last big release" it's a vague, goalpost moving term to fit whatever definition the arguer wants. If Nintendo has revealed the Switch 2 by TGA's they'll almost assuredly show something off there for that hardware. If the hardware hasn't been revealed they'll almost assuredly show off something for the current Switch.
Oh my bad, I see what you mean. At most, I can see something Prime 4 happening at the game awards, but certainly no hardware.
 
I'd disagree, as long as the base framerate is over 35fps and V-Sync is enabled (when the game isn't Forspoken cough, cough), the smoothness is good, but the main problem is a small amount of input latency. A custom implementation like what FSR 2 is in No Man's Sky could be tweaked to focus on improving latency to a degree to where it would be acceptable to what's on screen.

Again, I wouldn't add FSR 3 in portable mode, that wouldn't work at all. Docked on the other hand will likely be between 3-4.5 TFs, so it would be much more useful there.



I'd also like to note, when using FSR 3, V-Sync has to be on for it to function properly, otherwise it looks like a jumpy and laggy mess, which is probably what you're referring to.
I don't think you can really improve latency by much without absolutely destroying the IQ. and the IQ is already pretty bad (might be from FSR upscaling though)
 
Oh my bad, I see what you mean. At most, I can see something Prime 4 happening at the game awards, but certainly no hardware.
I agree. The biggest thing from Nintendo they could show is Metroid Prime 4. They could get away with a teaser, but I think Metroid Prime 2 and 3 have a better chance. They can shadow drop both at the Game Awards.
 
I don't think you can really improve latency by much without absolutely destroying the IQ. and the IQ is already pretty bad (might be from FSR upscaling though)
For a mouse and keyboard, the latency feels worse than with just a controller. It does get better with tech like Anti Lag, but since the developers are optimising their games for that specific system, these techniques aren't needed since they would optimise the game in the same way as to replicate the effect of Reflex/Anti-Lag. This would still feel acceptable on a controller and you would be trading that small amount of latency off for a much smoother image.
 
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A Spring through September launch is possible, I'd say production starting at the end of this year could also be the beginning of ramp up too. People worried about the time of year of release should really just move on to the exact day, like anyone actually cares if this launches in March or September, we should just be happy that it's coming next year.

That's how I see it. Speculation is fun and all, but there's no reason to get hyper-fixated on dates.
 
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I thought ever since the Gamescom leak we had been on the same page about DLSS:

ReDraketed can have features from up to DLSS version 3.5

But it won't have DLSS 3's Frame Generation, as that one requires special hardware only available in current high end nVidia Desktop-GPUs right now.
 
So, if the system is coming out next FY, Nintendo will for sure have to talk about it when projecting, right?
When would that be, then, sometime in April? Doesn't that give us the latest possible date for reveal (or at least announcement)?

It would be nice to have something near-solid to hang our hats on
Theoretically they could pull the same thing as this year, and say the forecasts only include current models of Switch.
I could see why people might think there could be a connection. Online services getting terminated is bad news. A common tactic to hide bad news is to bury it in good news. New consoles being announced is good news.

But in this case, I don't think Nintendo cares.
Bad news: We are ending the online services for Nintendo 3DS.

Good news: We are finally truly killing off our least successful product of the last quarter century!
Considering FSR 3 works on the ROG Ally (a 3.5 TF machine), nothing could stop developers from doing a 720p -> 4K upscale and using FG.
Frame generation at 4K being significantly costlier than frame generation at 1080p is important.
 
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A Spring through September launch is possible, I'd say production starting at the end of this year could also be the beginning of ramp up too. People worried about the time of year of release should really just move on to the exact day, like anyone actually cares if this launches in March or September, we should just be happy that it's coming next year.

There are few things we can speculate about.
  • Dates of announcement/blowout/release (the answer is SOON on all of these anyway)
  • Launch titles/3rd party support (there is a different thread for this)
  • Hardware details
I think the most fun thing to discuss is the hardware details. This is the thread for that, after all!

I'd love to get your response on my theory below Zom! What do you think the max drake can be pushed is?

If you’re generating 15w, You’re generating 15w of heat.

Ya and the current Switch can deal just fine with 15w of heat. My thought is what if Nintendo decided to set out to make a Super Switch that can deal with a lot more heat when docked. What if it's designed to do 25w... 35w... 45w!?!? How would a drake perform with those numbers? It really would make the "Super Switch, Now you're playing with power." name/slogan sing.

Again, I haven't seen anyone propose a theory on why Nintendo could have pulled dev kits and replaced them. I think this is the current only theory? Anyone else got one?

Super Theory Time!

What if Nintendo changed course on Switch 2, deciding to milk Drake to the fullest. Coming out the gate with a bigger (more ergonomic) device designed for the hardcore, really going all-in on performance by clocking drake up as far as they can. Why?
  • First major console fully developed under Furukawa and not influenced by Iwata
    • A lot of other younger leaders taking bigger roles in the company which may have different priorities than gimmicks with the console
  • Perhaps needs to be clocked higher to achieve desired generational leap with Nvidia technology
    • For example if one of their gimmicks might be RT on errydin
  • This new device NEEDS to be differentiated from Switch1... It can't be confused with it, they can't just do a slightly refined device and have another Wii U
  • A bigger device with a bigger battery can raise the ground floor for portable mode, which could be another AAA port barrier
    • Could rely on bigger heatsink while portable possibly eliminate need to fan to run while portable?
  • Early adopters are going to be more hardcore and care about high tech, can cost more and be more impressive to that group and do well alone on the market for the first year or 2, untill...
  • A die shrink "slim" devices down the road to be more interesting refresh that can target a more blue ocean
  • Coming out the gate with a higher end more expensive device builds perceived product value and provides opportunities for price drops/promotions in the future
  • Fear of being in a position of not getting 3rd party AAA support, especially after competitor Pro models come out (PS5 Pro is rumored)
  • Could explain why dev kits were pulled

This last point is really interesting to me. What is up with those reports? We know there's not enough time from them getting pulled for Nvidia to tap out a new SOC, so it's probably drake in both of these hypothetical devices. What change could have occurred that altered the product to the extent that they needed to produce new development kits?

Perhaps this is it. Perhaps Nintendo was going to do Switch 2, a more refined Switch with the addition of some new input method gimmick. But they saw the proliferation of these monster handheld units coming out to much consumer fanfair... decided to make a Super Switch in the lab and... saw the appeal. And then all of my points above fall into place and they changed course.

This may be unlikely but you have to admit... it's possible! The only question I have now, for our tech experts here, how close to the PS5 could this "Super Switch" get? Would it be somewhere right in the middle between a XSS and a PS5 or would real world performance...could it really be neck and neck with current gen?
 
Again, I haven't seen anyone propose a theory on why Nintendo could have pulled dev kits and replaced them. I think this is the current only theory? Anyone else got one?
the other theory, which I think is more reasonable, is that those alleged early kits are old silicon that were given out for test purposes. whatever reason you update dev kits, you gotta take old ones back. even if it's just adding more ram, new board layout, whatever.

any sort of "nintendo going all in" is just wishful thinking. Nintendo has long since gotten out of the arms race and has led to their biggest successes. some pieces of hardware that won't even sell vita numbers isn't as much of a threat, especially when they can't even be as performant per watt as Drake will be.
 
Okaay, here’s my two cents on several running topics on this thread:

• Re: Successor reveal in the Game Awards - Like others have mentioned, Nintendo likes to control the narrative on their products. That said, it doesn’t mean we won’t be seeing anything next-gen in TGA if Nintendo decides to unveil their next console in the coming months. After all, Breath of the Wild got a trailer in TGA, and Nintendo made one of their best reveal presentations in history at TGA when they unveiled Joker for Smash. What could happen is that Nintendo announces a reveal trailer is coming, they drop it the next day and they drop a trailer for one of the showcased games in TGA. Probably even Prime 4.

• Re: March date - anything can happen in March. Even release day. Nintendo could tell third parties that they need their marketing material for early March, for a mid March presentation and a March release
 
Nintendo was never gonna keep up servers for dead systems up permanently out of pure goodwill. I doubt this has anything to do with their next system
 
the other theory, which I think is more reasonable, is that those alleged early kits are old silicon that were given out for test purposes. whatever reason you update dev kits, you gotta take old ones back. even if it's just adding more ram, new board layout, whatever.

any sort of "nintendo going all in" is just wishful thinking. Nintendo has long since gotten out of the arms race and has led to their biggest successes. some pieces of hardware that won't even sell vita numbers isn't as much of a threat, especially when they can't even be as performant per watt as Drake will be.
Ya but that theory sounds like standard operating procedures. The rumor made it sound like it was something more than that. Some devs thought the old one was canceled?

As far as wishful thinking? Well I know as much as anyone that this idea is not actually super likely...
but....

dumb-and-dumber-jimcarrey.gif


It might be a smaller upgrade than I'm speculating but I really think Nintendo HAS to differentiate this new model from the OG Switch. Coming out the gate with a big boy SteamDeck sized device does that effectively before you even see the name. It communicates with the size of the thing that it's going to be more powerful too. I think a big boy does a lot of heavy lifting for Nintendo. And then when die shrinks happen they can come out with Slim models and give the platform a boost.
 
Okaay, here’s my two cents on several running topics on this thread:

• Re: Successor reveal in the Game Awards - Like others have mentioned, Nintendo likes to control the narrative on their products. That said, it doesn’t mean we won’t be seeing anything next-gen in TGA if Nintendo decides to unveil their next console in the coming months. After all, Breath of the Wild got a trailer in TGA, and Nintendo made one of their best reveal presentations in history at TGA when they unveiled Joker for Smash. What could happen is that Nintendo announces a reveal trailer is coming, they drop it the next day and they drop a trailer for one of the showcased games in TGA. Probably even Prime 4.

• Re: March date - anything can happen in March. Even release day. Nintendo could tell third parties that they need their marketing material for early March, for a mid March presentation and a March release
I forgot about another set of two cents, haha:
• Re: Wii U/3DS servers - could just ve a case of an operational decision that was planned and made years ago. Could be that they’re freeing space and manpower for something that could be coming next Fiscal Year. Who knows.
— Both could be true: they’re making space for a new console generation because, honestly, we’re long overdue for one.
 
Do we know what’s the real behind the developer kits?

The rumor mill said that dev kits were pulled but now we have (high) confidence that NG2 is launching in 2024.

Did Nintendo replace the prior dev kits with new ones? Is it the same hardware? Why did they pull them? What are games being developed on now?
 
Do we know what’s the real behind the developer kits?

The rumor mill said that dev kits were pulled but now we have (high) confidence that NG2 is launching in 2024.

Did Nintendo replace the prior dev kits with new ones? Is it the same hardware? Why did they pull them? What are games being developed on now?
Do we even know if that rumor is true?
 
Furukawa already said that Nintendo’s focus this year is on the current Switch. Shouldn’t that spell out that the Switch 2 isn’t until next fiscal year (I.E. after March)?
That’s why to me “focus” makes sense. It’s not 100% and a reveal prior to the end of March works with the release after March.
 
Ya but that theory sounds like standard operating procedures. The rumor made it sound like it was something more than that. Some devs thought the old one was canceled?

As far as wishful thinking? Well I know as much as anyone that this idea is not actually super likely...
but....

dumb-and-dumber-jimcarrey.gif


It might be a smaller upgrade than I'm speculating but I really think Nintendo HAS to differentiate this new model from the OG Switch. Coming out the gate with a big boy SteamDeck sized device does that effectively before you even see the name. It communicates with the size of the thing that it's going to be more powerful too. I think a big boy does a lot of heavy lifting for Nintendo. And then when die shrinks happen they can come out with Slim models and give the platform a boost.
considering neither source of the "dev kits were pulled" ever came out to clarify things, maybe there was nothing to clarify because it was just standard operating procedure. or maybe they're reading things wrong. again, they clarified nothing, they just said "dev kits were taken back".

Nintendo is inherently against oversized products. Steam Deck is only as large as it is because it needs to go full tilt to compensate for the fact that no one is going to optimize for the chipset. same with other handheld PCs. die shrinks is increasingly looking to be off the table given the costs that will go into 3nm. might not be worth the expense for what might just be the same product but smaller die
 
Furukawa already said that Nintendo’s focus this year is on the current Switch. Shouldn’t that spell out that the Switch 2 isn’t until next fiscal year (I.E. after March)?

We really shouldn't put so much stock into what gaming executives say. They only talk about future stuff when they are ready, and will say whatever they need to to suit their needs. This isn't a bad thing, to be clear. It would be ridiculous of us to expect them to never lie or mislead. But it does mean that we shouldn't always take them at their word.
 
There may be some pain on here if Nintendo announce a Switch Direct for February focusing on Switch games to be released by summer 2024. If they do, I wouldn't lose hope that a Switch 2 reveal trailer could still come as soon as the following month in March.
 
Nintendo is inherently against oversized products.

Say that to the Wii U Gamepad.

die shrinks is increasingly looking to be off the table given the costs that will go into 3nm.

I find this hard to believe. We keep saying we'll hit a wall, but we haven't yet. Moore's Law is dead, long live Moore's Law. I totally expect mainstream chips to keep being produced down past 1nm. The time between them may be longer, so ya it could be a risk for N to be stuck with a bigger device, but they'll find a way to bring out a slim model by 2026 in this scenario.

Super Switch Slim
 
We really shouldn't put so much stock into what gaming executives say. They only talk about future stuff when they are ready, and will say whatever they need to to suit their needs. This isn't a bad thing, to be clear. It would be ridiculous of us to expect them to never lie or mislead. But it does mean that we shouldn't always take them at their word.
Word. Public statements by executives are, usually, processed by Public Relations and Legal.

There may be some pain on here if Nintendo announce a Switch Direct for February focusing on Switch games to be released by summer 2024. If they do, I wouldn't lose hope that a Switch 2 reveal trailer could still come as soon as the following month in March.
I concur. Every Direct we tell ourselves that the coming Direct will be the last Switch exclusive Direct, but again comes Nintendo.

If the Switch 2 isn’t revealed by the February 2024 Direct, then I’m not expecting many original Switch softwares like Peach Showtimes and more of a plethora of HD Remasters and low effort games
 
Do we even know if that rumor is true?

I thought @NateDrake or some other sources confirmed that dev kits were pulled.

Am I misremembering? Maybe it was the 2021 dev kits?

That’s the root of my question; do we know what happened? I think we can be most confident in saying that dev kits exist and are in the hands of developers today. But I don’t know if it’s a new dev kit vs. prior rumors.
 
Furukawa already said that Nintendo’s focus this year is on the current Switch. Shouldn’t that spell out that the Switch 2 isn’t until next fiscal year (I.E. after March)?
"Tune in on Sept. 14 at 7 a.m. PT for a #NintendoDirect livestream featuring roughly 40 minutes of information focused on #NintendoSwitch games releasing this winter." proceeds to announce/showcase a cascade of 2024 games from spring all the way to summer
 
Do you know any cases of Amiibos getting a major restock that just... happened, with no notable connection to anything? Honestly, this whole theory gets me excited, and I don't want to get my hopes up too much.
To my knowledge, they've all always connected to something since Nintendo can't guarantee any demand will be there for Amiibo unless they have new software news going alongside it. This has always been the case.

While this is the outdated theory, this post has two images of the document with all of them included.
 
It makes sense to link Amiibo to something software related. After all, Amiibos are packed with functions that influence software.

Also, tying Amiibos so close to software also helps Nintendo better forecast potential sales and not have stocks sitting around
 
There may be some pain on here if Nintendo announce a Switch Direct for February focusing on Switch games to be released by summer 2024. If they do, I wouldn't lose hope that a Switch 2 reveal trailer could still come as soon as the following month in March.
A February Switch only Direct is seeming more and more likely as time goes on. If nothing happens this month I'm on the March reveal train all the way.
 
A February Switch only Direct is seeming more and more likely as time goes on. If nothing happens this month I'm on the March reveal train all the way.
Then again, February can always be a Switch exclusive Direct, for the sake of ending the Fiscal Year and then we get a Switch 2 exclusive Direct
 
Say that to the Wii U Gamepad.
And it tanked for a reason. Wii U itself is still smaller than competitors.
The Switch itself is an oversized product compared to all their previous handhelds.
Context matters. Manufacturers TODAY are still struggling to make a handheld with that kind of power envelope in the size of the Switch. And the Switch Lite isn’t much bigger than the 3DS while being 30x more powerful.
 
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