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Predictions On October 20th Spider-Man 2 and Super Mario Bros. Wonder Face off. Which reviews better? Which sells better this holiday?

Spider-Man vs. Mario: Which reviews better? Which sells better?

  • Mario both reviews and sell better

    Votes: 104 58.4%

  • Spider-Man both reviews and sells better

    Votes: 9 5.1%

  • Mario reviews better but Spider-Man sells better

    Votes: 11 6.2%

  • Spider-Man reviews better but Mario sells better

    Votes: 54 30.3%
  • Total voters
    178
  • Poll closed .
NGL, I’m actually really surprised by the poll numbers. I think some of y’all are really underestimating Spider-Man.

Review scores are a bit of a crapshoot, but I feel like a high-quality 3D sandbox game has a genre advantage over a high-quality 2D platformer.

Sales-wise, I expect Spider-Man 2 to have a bigger launch but Mario to have better legs/holiday sales.
 
Jbone916 said:
NGL, I’m actually really surprised by the poll numbers. I think some of y’all are really underestimating Spider-Man.
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I think Spider-Man will get a lot of 9's, just like the previous games. It'll be called a technically excellent video game that ticks a lot of boxes, and that's about it.
 
I'm surprised at the results so far even though I voted Mario for both. It seems like the consensus is Mario will sell better, but people are split on whether it or Spider-Man does better in reviews.

I actually thought reviews would be the clearer victory for Mario given the disparity in preview impressions between the two, with the competition really being the holiday sales. Spider-Man I would guess carries stronger pre-orders right now and it having the game included with new PS5 bundles could give it a possible leg up early in this holiday season.
 
Gartooth said:
I'm surprised at the results so far even though I voted Mario for both. It seems like the consensus is Mario will sell better, but people are split on whether it or Spider-Man does better in reviews.

I actually thought reviews would be the clearer victory for Mario given the disparity in preview impressions between the two, with the competition really being the holiday sales. Spider-Man I would guess carries stronger pre-orders right now and it having the game included with new PS5 bundles could give it a possible leg up early in this holiday season.
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I think the distinction comes because 2D platformers have an uphill battle at reviews Vs a 3d action adventure open world game. The two super mario bros games on Wii and DS did 30m units a piece and there's pretty much no reason to expect any less from Wonder. People really love a new mario bros and it's been a decade since the last new one, similar to how it was when NSMB happened. Wonder is going to shift a ridiculous amount of software

The only reason we have to not assume it's going to get to the top 5 best sellers alongside mario kart/new horizons/smash ultimate/botw, displacing mario odyssey, is how late it's coming in the switches life and it's not super clear how the games legs are going to pan out through the switch 2.
 
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AngryAlchemist said:
I think you're right. Spider-Man 2018 sold 20 million in just 2 years. That's outselling Super Mario 3 and probably soon after World in 2 years. The sales performance of the rest of the series is more indicative of Miles being a half-sequel and the remaster being more of a double pack / upgrade than a highly advertised product.

I could see and sort of expect the gap to be more than a couple million, but both will sell 30 mil +
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I don't know how it is for first party PS5 games at the moment but I assume Spider Man had some reduced price sales in those 2 years? At least on PS4 game prices were falling down really fast 6-12 months after release. It is hard to compare game sales if one game will get at max a 33% discount vs a game that is half the price after one year.
 
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Iffy on reviews, but I guess I'll go with Mario.

I think Spider-Man sells better out of the gate, but Mario sells the most in the long run.
 
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Im going mario to sell better and get a 93MC. Spider-man 2 to sell amazing but a little less because of the install base and get a 91
 
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Spider-Man will review better and will be a candidate for Game of the Year. Mario Wonder won't.

I do think Mario Wonder will sell better, at least until 2026 when Spider-Man comes to PC.
 
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AngryAlchemist said:
I think you're right. Spider-Man 2018 sold 20 million in just 2 years. That's outselling Super Mario 3 and probably soon after World in 2 years. The sales performance of the rest of the series is more indicative of Miles being a half-sequel and the remaster being more of a double pack / upgrade than a highly advertised product.

I could see and sort of expect the gap to be more than a couple million, but both will sell 30 mil +
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Within the past 12 months switch had two (three) games that sold this much in less than a month. Now they are releasing a Mario game on the same system in the same year, which also happens to be the same year the Mario movie made over a billion dollars.

Spiderman is small potatoes even before you consider that this new one is less exciting as a game and on a console much less people have.
 
Yea not sure what is up with the poll. Who even knows what spiderman is. Mario is our childhood.
 
JorgenRaft said:
Mario will probably be ahead at first but it'll probably get way closer in a few years, whichever ends up ahead.
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I’m not expecting Wonder to be below Spiderman at any point. Wonder will have good legs and reach Nintendo Evergreen status. If anything, Spiderman 2 will sell good for weeks/months, but then SMW will catch up comfortably.
 
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Spidey reviews better because of the type of game it is, but Mario sells more because the Switch has a much larger user base to pull from.
 
Spider-Man 2 will get better reviews, but by a slight margin.

Super Mario Bros. Wonder will win the commercial battle by a relatively safe margin.
 
I think the MC is going to be close. Spiderman hit 87 the first time out, which is impressive. Assuming 2 does similarly, that's not unmatchable for Mario. The DS and Wii 'New' titles hit the high 80s, as did Super Mario Maker on Wii U and Switch, and based on enthusiastic previews, I'd consider those to be the metric to judge Wonder by. I haven't paid attention to Spiderman 2 previews, but assuming both games achieve a similar MC, we're looking at high 80s. If Wonder lives up to the more enthusiastic previews, then I could see it hitting low 90s (my guess is 91 over in the relevant thread). Maybe Spiderman 2 has some secret sauce that gives it a big push over the first game, but I won't pretend I know enough to say.

As for sales this year, I think Mario has the clear edge. The install base advantage plus the popularity of the Super Mario brand should really propel this game to a quick start, and a higher Christmas total than Spiderman 2.

I think the MC is hard to call, and I expect it to be close, but I'd give a slight edge to Mario based on this being a shift in direction for the series. I'd definitely give Mario the edge in sales this year.
 
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They are both going to review great, I do believe that Mario will sell more.
 
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Brock Reiher said:
Within the past 12 months switch had two (three) games that sold this much in less than a month. Now they are releasing a Mario game on the same system in the same year, which also happens to be the same year the Mario movie made over a billion dollars.

Spiderman is small potatoes even before you consider that this new one is less exciting as a game and on a console much less people have.
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Software sales for exclusives from both Nintendo and Sony in general are increasing in terms of pacing. So of course a known quantity later in Switch's life is going to sell more than a Sony game from 5 years ago.

That being said I was admittedly talking about lifetime sales when I was replying to Thunder. I think the launch sales will be pretty decisively Mario (and id consider a couple million decisive), but that Spider-Man will have an entire generation to catch up and also will have digital deals.

In order for the two games to not be comparable at all, Spider-Man would have to not grow at all, or 2D Mario would have to grow exponentially with Spider-Man barely growing. That just seems unlikely. Granted, I'm also taking into account that the higher the sales are the less a few million matter in %. I could see Spider-Man 2 selling 30-40 mil lifetime and Wonder being decently above that still. We'll just have to see how this shakes out.
 
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I think this is going to be a lot closer than many people think and I honestly can see it going both ways.

Install bases don't really matter at this point in time anymore. The majority of consoles bought past the 50M point are casuals that are just as interested in catching up on older games as buying the latest one (unless it's a real event game like tears of the kingdom). The time the console still has left on the market is more important, and PS5 has a clear advantage here. NSMBWii sold so well because it was smack in the middle of the console cycle. Also the number of alternatives, Switch owners can choose between 5 different Mario games, Playstation owners between 3 Spider-Mans.
Spider-Man 1 sold 25 million copies, NSMBU sold 16 million copies, again going by recent games, Spider-Man has the lead. Of course Spiderman 2 is a straight sequel and Mario Wonder looks to be fresher. Which is why I'm going with Mario Wonder gets a higher MC, Spider-Man 2 will sell more copies. And I'm probably wrong on both accounts.
 
Thunder84 said:
Spider-Man previewed incredibly well, I don’t really see the disparity you’re talking about here.
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Mario previews commonly call it possibly the best 2D platformer Nintendo has made since the SNES. Spider-Man previews point out how similar it feels to the first game and Miles. It gives the vibe that the critics are more impressed by Mario at first glance.
 
Everything I'm hearing about Wonder is how fresh it makes the formula feel, as well as being a blast to play.

Everything I'm hearing about SM2 is that it's more of the same with some refinements and short for the price (seriously, PS fans are eating themselves alive over it).

That said, SM2 will definitely do the numbers and sounds like a great game. But Wonder will emerge victorious.
 
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My gut is telling me that Mario Wonder will snag the higher review score, but Spider-Man is definitely gonna be the bigger sales monster. Maybe not initially, but as the ball continues to roll on the PS5, Spider-Man 2 is gonna be that always-charting evergreen.
 
Hot take, I think Super Mario Wonder will face the same problem that Mario Party Superstar has. Although being (in my mind) a superior game, Superstars has underperformed compared to its predecessor in part because the casual audience already had the Mario Party itch scratched on the Switch. When parents go to the store to buy their kids a game for Christmas, they might see Wonder as just another 2D Mario and say, "We've already got 2d Mario at home!" I'm not sure that Wonder will be quite the event game that TOTK was. I would love to be proven wrong. I say Spiderman 2 wins in sales.
 
Jamoman said:
Hot take, I think Super Mario Wonder will face the same problem that Mario Party Superstar has. Although being (in my mind) a superior game, Superstars has underperformed compared to its predecessor in part because the casual audience already had the Mario Party itch scratched on the Switch. When parents go to the store to buy their kids a game for Christmas, they might see Wonder as just another 2D Mario and say, "We've already got 2d Mario at home!" I'm not sure that Wonder will be quite the event game that TOTK was. I would love to be proven wrong. I say Spiderman 2 wins in sales.
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I think that is going to hurt Mario RPG more than Wonder. ("We just bought you Mario last month!")

2D Mario has been gone for a hot minute. It's been 4 years since NSMB U Deluxe, and 10 years since NSMB U itself, which is probably well beyond the statuate of limitations for parents buying sequels for their kids.

Though Pokemon just proved that you can release games within 3 months of each other and both will sell gangbusters, so who knows
 
Not sure about the reviews (voted Mario).
But I think Mario Wonder will sale at least 18M copies in the launch quarter and Switch HW will be 140M+ by the end of the year.
I do not think Spiderman 2 can beat that :unsure:
 
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Valentonis said:
My gut is telling me that Mario Wonder will snag the higher review score, but Spider-Man is definitely gonna be the bigger sales monster. Maybe not initially, but as the ball continues to roll on the PS5, Spider-Man 2 is gonna be that always-charting evergreen.
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2d mario is the most evergreen franchise Nintendo has behind mario kart and animal crossing
 
People thinking Sony Exclusive will outsell Switch Exclusive round 3. Aka not learning your lesson during Death Stranding vs Luigi's Mansion 3 and Animal Crossing vs. FF7 Remake.
 
I’d say they’ll both score in the upper 80s but Mario will sell more as it’s a breath of fresh air for 2D Mario and the first new one since NSMBU, over 10 years ago. Considering how well NSMBW sold, I can see this one doing even better as it’d likely still be available and playable on the Switch 2. But I’d be surprised if Spider-Man 2 didn’t do crazy numbers itself

EDIT: Meant to write Switch 2
 
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I don’t think there Will be a lot in it but Mario will review better (Spider-Man will be marked down slightly for being similar to the first/MM)

I also think Mario will sell better on account of how many Switches are out there versus PS5’s plus the attach rate of Mario games will likely be higher.

Looking forward to both though, 20th is going to be a great gaming day indeed
 
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Reviews I think they will score similarly with a very slight advantage for Mario. Sales-wise while usually sony exclusives don't reach astronomic levels, this is Spiderman, it could win.
 
This isn’t even a competing, anyone thinking it is is fooling themselves,

Anyway on to some
More uncertain things, I think Mario wonder will get a high meta score, like 94 or higher.
 
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Show Sonic some respect. It should be

On October 2023 Spider-Man 2, Super Mario Bros. Wonder and otherwise Face off.​

 
Higher Metacritic? Spider-Man 2

Better sales this holiday? Mario

Better sales lifetime? It will be close but I think Spider-Man 2 pulls out in front.
 
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Gartooth said:
Mario previews commonly call it possibly the best 2D platformer Nintendo has made since the SNES. Spider-Man previews point out how similar it feels to the first game and Miles. It gives the vibe that the critics are more impressed by Mario at first glance.
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Just to add to this, there've been quite a few hype tweets from reviewers who are currently playing Spiderman. Additionally, Shinobi has teased that, based on what he's heard from multiple outlets, the game will probably cross the 90s

EDIT: Anecdotally speaking, I've only seen 1 hype tweet from a reviewer when it comes to Nintendo games lol. Reviewers are probably too scared
 
Gartooth said:
Mario previews commonly call it possibly the best 2D platformer Nintendo has made since the SNES. Spider-Man previews point out how similar it feels to the first game and Miles. It gives the vibe that the critics are more impressed by Mario at first glance.
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As Truno said, that's not the vibe I got at all. A lot of people seemingly think that Spidey 2 is gonna be a breakthrough for Insomniac in a way that they haven't had in a while. There's a ton of hype surrounding it.

Doesn't necessarily mean it'll do better than Mario, but the excitement goes beyond it just being another Spidey.
 
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